The Yankees are expected to make a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Qualifying offers are due Thursday of this week. Rizzo will then have 10 days to gauge interest around the league before determining whether to accept or decline his QO. If he accepts, he’ll be considered signed as a free agent (and thus unable to be traded until June 15, 2023, without his consent). If he rejects the QO, he’ll become a free agent but will be tied to draft pick compensation — meaning a new team would need to surrender a pick(s) in next summer’s draft in order to sign him.
For Rizzo, declining his $16MM player option was a straightforward decision, even if he hopes to remain in the Bronx. Declining the option put the onus on the team to make this offer — which represents a $3.65MM raise over what he’d have earned by exercising the player option. And, had the team unexpectedly opted not to put forth a QO, he’d surely have been able to earn more than the year and $16MM value of his player option as a free agent with no draft strings attached.
Similarly, it’s an obvious call for the Yankees to make. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 and tied a career-high 32 home runs in just 548 plate appearances with the Yankees this past season. That .224 average was obviously a fair bit south of the .243 leaguewide average, but Rizzo’s walk rate and power output were vastly better than that of your average big league hitter.
Rizzo also turned in a better-than-average 18.4% strikeout rate, and with some limitations on infield shifts looming in 2023, it stands to reason that Rizzo could see a few more grounders break through the right side of the infield to help him find a few more singles and boost that average next year. Based on Rizzo’s 2022 output, the Yankees would surely be content to have him accept and return at a slightly larger rate of pay.
Rizzo found a two-year, $32MM deal with an opt-out/player option in free agency this past offseason, and that was on the heels of a .248/.344/.440 campaign that was noticeably less productive than his 2022 season. Granted, he’ll now have a QO with which to contend and is a year older, but he could still parlay the offer into a new two-year deal with the Yanks that could perhaps clock in below the QO rate but at or slightly above the $16MM he’d have otherwise earned.
Teams could very well be reluctant to part with a draft pick (or picks) in order to sign a first baseman to a contract beginning with his age-33 season, but the previously mentioned 10-day window will give Rizzo and his reps the chance to determine how receptive other teams might be to such an arrangement. At the very least, Rizzo’s decision to decline his $16MM player option has netted him the opportunity to lock in an additional $3.65MM in 2023.
JockStrap
Most of his production came 1st half. Cant see a team spending more than a QO on him.
CaptainJudge99
Why even bother at this point?
Wagner>Cobb
Who do you think is a superior option for them at 1B at this point? Role with DJ every day? Just curious.
#1WhiteSoxFan
Jose Abreu
Wagner>Cobb
He’s right handed and isn’t a good defender though. Plus he’s aging.
realsox
I can see the Brewers checking in on both Abreu and Rizzo.
64' Yanks
You just described the Yankee infield.
Lars MacDonald
He was one of the few offensive bright spots in the playoffs.
tiredolddude
We must have been watching different playoffs? Bright spot? Really?
Pads Fans
9 for 41 with 3 HR and an 1.030 OPS. BA is low, but that is outstanding even for a small sample size like 41 AB.
SausageOfDoom
Relative to the other black holes, yes:
OPS 2022 post-season
Rizzo .903
Stanton .666
Judge .476
Torres .420
SalaryCapMyth
Pretty sure there was an injury in the second half that suppressed his productivity. Can anyone confirm that?
Pads Fans
He missed 18 games from September 1st to Sept 18th.
BigGarg
Wouldn’t hate if the Cubs gave him a 2 or 3 year deal. They obviously can afford it and it would bring some good will to the fans after losing a lot of it these past few years.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Not nervous with Mervis!
MarkieFresh
Exactly. Get him out there opening day and start his ROY season. Nothing more to prove in Des Moines.
CaptainJudge99
Yes, going back to the Cubs would be perfect for Rizzo.
RodBecksBurnerAccount
Do you really see the Cubs giving up a draft pick to bring back a 33 year old Rizzo on a short term deal?
all in the suit that you wear
But do the Cubs or other teams want to lose draft pick(s) to sign Rizzo?
jonnyzuck
the penalty for signing a guy that received a QO is low, only a 2nd round pick and $500,000 drop in international signing money. I don’t see it as a big deterrent
King Floch
“only a 2nd round pick”
You say that as if plenty of good players aren’t taken in the second round of the draft.
utah cornelius
What percentage of second round picks become MLB players who have careers like the one Rizzo likely has left in him in terms of years and performance? Put it in perspective and we can evaluate your argument.
Jean Matrac
The percentage is low, but so is the percentage of guys taken in the first round. But real talent can be found in the 2nd round. In 2016 Bryan Reynolds Pete Alonso and Bo Bichette were 2nd round picks.
Granted, most seasons don’t have that kind of talent. But other 2nd rounders were Brady Singer, A.J. Minter, Spencer Turnbull, Ryan McMahon, Trevor Williams, Josh Bell, Brad Miller, James McCann, and Alex Wood, all reasonably productive guys,
Pads Fans
Rizzo has 39.2 WAR so far in his career and put up a 131 OPS+ season in his platform year.
With the shift being dramatically reduced starting in 2023 and moving to a new ballpark that doesn’t have that short of a porch in RF, I would think that Rizzo’s BA and OBP would go up and his SLG would go down, which balances it out.
I don’t know the stats on 2nd round picks since the draft started in 1965, but I know that less than 20% of 1st round picks ever put in even one season above league average in their careers. I would venture to guess that its less for 2nd round picks.
How many put up 35+ WAR in their careers? Great question. A quick search from 1995-2010 shows that 13 of the 480 2nd round draft picks have put up 35 or more WAR in their careers.
So, about 2.7% of 2nd round draft picks in that 16 year time frame have gone on to put up 35+ WAR.
10 of those 13 played 15+ seasons, so the number that averaged as high of WAR per season a Rizzo is less.
Now if you are asking how many 2nd round draft picks that were position players and went on to have a 131 OPS+ in their age 32 season, that is a question that would take some deeper research. Even more to figure out what they did after age 32. I am not sure there are many that compare.
I would venture to guess it was even less than the 2.7% that had a career as good or better than Rizzo’s so far.
Votto had a 160 OPS+ in his age 32 season and had a 167, 127, and 95 OPS+ the next 3 seasons. Pedroia was never as good with the bat, so that is also not a great comparison. Chase Utley hadd a 110 OPS+ in his age 32 season and went on to have 113, 126, and 108 the next 3 seasons.
Hope that helps some
BaseballisLife
Holy bleep dude. You do all that research just to answer a question on a board. Great info, but great googly moogly.
Deleted Userr
He IS you lol
Crab L. Winston
If Rod Beck has a burner in the great beyond, anything is possible.
But no. I don’t think the Cubs are spending the money under the circumstances at present. If they needed a clubhouse leader who is still a reliable regular and could nab Rizzo on the cheap, sure, but that’s not what we’re looking at here with the QO in play.
The way this shook out also makes me wonder if the Yankees will even play ball on a new contract. If he declines the QO I think his market is going to be fairly suppressed given his age and the position he plays.
And no, the penalty is not “low.” A second round pick in the MLB draft has a significant amount of value as does the international bonus money. Go take a look and see how many second rounders have had quality MLB careers or go and take a look to see how many international free agents signed for $100,000 or less and had quality MLB careers. You’re punting on the ability to have club control over a potential star for a few seasons of a guy who, at this stage of his career, is more solid than spectacular.
Flyby
outside of DJL i dont see the cubs with any siginicant 2nd rounders they drafted. The next best would be vogelbach and then a lefty reliever. 3/22 is not that great I dont know much about recent draft class though but doesnt seem like the cubs do that well in the 2nd round. 1st round looks like they kill it though.
#1WhiteSoxFan
Why would Rizzo want to sign with the lowly Cubs?!
No World Series appearance in their future.
rparker68
I would rather keep the draft pick
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I think Rizzo should take it. He might have received a better two year deal had a team not needed to surrender a pick, but with the QO that makes it tougher and I think he should take it if he is at all happy with the Yankees.
drasco036
I agree… the most I would give Rizzo is a two year contract to begin with and I don’t think I would surrender a draft pick to sign him.
Yankees are kind of hamstring themselves with the luxury tax, if he accepts in addition to picking Servinos option.
slider32
Yanks make over 800 million a year, hamstringing is not in their vocabulary!
YankeesBleacherCreature
Yeah great job by the front office in conditioning fans to believe that the soft cap is a hard one.
ruff kuntry
Is Rizzo happy playing for the Yankees? Or is he among the players not happy with the fan base?
Yankee Clipper
He’s happy with them, they’re happy with him…. And honestly, that story is way overblown. It’s misdirection and excuse-making because the Yankees fell flat on their faces and sucked so bad in the postseason.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Clipper
Everyone looked happy at the end of the regular season – except Chapman. I would be really surprised if Rizzo is not a Yankee in 2023. Most likely on the QO, but otherwise on a two-year deal in the low 30s.
rondon
The Yankees need to make this happen. Yeah, he’s gonna miss some games because of his back, but he’s a solid all around veteran and a great clubhouse presence,
bwmiller
I was standing in left field at the Yankees spring training facility in Tampa today, the entire outfield is bent grass. They had the gates open for some reason and I snuck in, I thought about running the bases but was good with left field. I was surprised about the bent grass, was so nicely manicured and that’s a spring training facility. I always thought the outfield at Comiskey or at Wrigley was just your standard old back yard grass.
5TUNT1N
My son recently played the USA baseball tournament in Az. 14U. They play the games at the spring training facilities where the prospects play. It was pretty cool we saw the Dodgers prospects doing all of their plyo ball excercise off a giant blue wall. Even saw Dustin May before his return during the season. The fields were handled by dodgers personnel in between the games rather meticulously and my son said they were the highest quality fields he had played at to date. We’ve played various tournaments at nice facilities throughout California and Nevada so he has some experience with all surfaces and he said they were the best down there.
bwmiller
Nice, these fields were quality too, I had never set foot on a major league ball field before today, I just always assumed they were plain old midwestern grass, but it might be different here in Florida, as opposed to say Wrigley or Comiskey, I’ve never been on the field in Chicago but that’s where I grew up you know and I always imagined the grass to be the same as the grass in my yard when I was a kid mowing lawns.
DarkSide830
Really? I can’t see Rizzo declining that. No way a contender gives up possibly two draft picks for Rizzo when there should be other comparable offers available. Anyway, who wants a lightly-used Rhys Hoskins?
angryyankeesfan1
At best he takes a multi-year deal with the Yanks.
YankeesBleacherCreature
That’s probably what’s going to happen after he declines the Q.O.
all in the suit that you wear
Agreed. The Yankees being the only team that won’t lose draft picks to sign him should give them some leverage in negotiations…assuming he declines the QO.
drasco036
As a Cubs fan, I would take Hoskins for a season. Not sure what I would give up to get him though…
MarkieFresh
Matt Mervis is a beast and ready to go at 1B. 6’4” lefty hitting Duke grad destroyed 3 levels of minors in 22. Spend elsewhere.
stretch123
He’s going to take that. I don’t think he can top 15 mil AAV on a multi year deal.
CNichols
Totally agree. He has career earnings of $78M, so the QO is effectively a chance to get like 1/4th of the career money has so far in one year.
It’s a raise for him and he’s not going to get that AAV on the open market with the draft picks attached to him. He might get something like 3Y/$45M, but if takes the QO instead and gets $19.65M for 2023, all he would need to sign after the year to beat that is more than a 2Y/$26M deal and I think that will likely still be out there for him if he plays again in NY.
Ma4170
Idk… he might be able to get like a 2-30 deal which would be better off than taking the QO just for the extra guaranteed money
Yankee Clipper
I could certainly see a 2/30 type deal with the Yankees, and perhaps a third-year club option w/ a buy-out.
Jean Matrac
Hey Clip, I’m not sure Rizzo would take a 2 year deal. At his age I don’t think he wants to be a FA 2 years from now. I think he’d sign for 3, but if he doesn’t think he can get that, I think he’ll accept the QO.
CNichols
Is 2Y/30M really better than 1Y/19.65M? It’s a higher overall guarantee, but the AAV is almost $5M less.
Unless he’s injured to the point where he has to retire (i.e. like a Prince Fielder situation) some team would sign Rizzo next offseason and he would also have the benefit of not having a QO attached to him at that point, so he should be able to get more than $10M next offseason.
Ma4170
I don’t think he cares about AAV at his age, just guaranteed total money. In fact I think most guys not completely motivated by pride or prompted by the players union care more about total money than AAV
King Floch
He will definitely decline it and seek (and find) a 2 or 3 year deal on the open market.
Ma4170
3 years on Rizzo? If he can pull that off I’ll be impressed
Melchez17
I really don’t like “opt outs”. You agreed to a certain amount of money for a certain amount of years… then there’s no “opting out” Just sign the 1 year deal if you want an opt out
luclusciano
Why not? Opt outs are generally team friendly deals – if a player thinks they can do better, they should be given the opportunity. It is a risk, but not all deals have them.
BobGibsonFan
Team friendly? If the guy stinks then he extends the contract… if he does well he opts out.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Teams don’t like them but it’s the cost of doing business. Same as no-trade clauses.
jdgoat
When team take almost any and all opportunities to manipulate service time, players are allowed to negotiate opt outs, which teams literally agree to in the first place.
ohyeadam
Service time manipulation is a myth. Has any player won after filing a grievance? Both sides agreed to the rules
YankeesBleacherCreature
I wouldn’t call it a myth but it was a mechanism baked into the CBA which both sides agreed to as you’ve noted. Some teams did absolutely use it to their advantage and I don’t fault them.
jdgoat
How is It a myth? They hold them down to gain an extra year of control. You’re saying they just conveniently become major league caliber when this threshold passes?
ohyeadam
It has the same number of verified cases as Sasquatch
jdgoat
Just because it’s legal doesn’t mean it isn’t manipulating it…
JoeBrady
I love the opt-outs. If you sign a player to an 8-year deal, and he leaves halfway thru, you’re probably going to be on the positive side. The secod half of these deals seldom work out.
it also provides incentive. Some players will always show up. But someone like Castellanos, in his entire career, was only good for two months with the Cubs, when he became a FA, and one year with the Reds, when he could opt out.
And I assume that the team is getting something in return for offering the opt-out.
foppert
Agreed. The motivation for the player to keep working as hard as he was pre contract is a big positive. They love a $.
judgementday99
Thinking NY negotiates another 2 year deal at the QO offer.
Alkie
Well, I was hoping my team would seriously look at him, but not if it means giving our 2nd round pick to the Yankees. Next!
CaptainJudge99
Rizzo has a lot more value then any 2nd round pick. So stop being delusional.
Alkie
Wait, a Yankee fan who overvalues anyone in a Yankee uniform? I’m shocked. Also shocked that you’re incapable of understanding the nuance of the business side of it. It’s not your fault, you’ve been following the Cashman Yanks for too long. You have my pity.
King Floch
“Rizzo has a lot more value then any 2nd round pick”
The Orioles got Gunnar Henderson in the second round and I would much rather have him than Rizzo going forward.
utah cornelius
And every second round pick is a Gunnar Henderson, right?
King Floch
”And every second round pick is a Gunnar Henderson, right?”
No, some are Randy Johnsons or Nolan Arenados 😉
utah cornelius
What percentage of second round picks are like Gunnar Henderson, Johnson or Arenado? Put your argument in perspective so I can evaluate it. Prospects are not MLB players, which is why they get dealt for MLB players all the time.
1984wasntamanual
He said, “then any”, not, “than every”…your argument is irrelevant to the original conversation. He even quoted what he was responding to.
King Floch
I don’t really care about the exact percentages, plenty of good players get drafted in the second round so I’m not sacrificing a second round pick for 2 or 3 expensive years of a 33 year old good-not-great 1B/DH with recurring back problems and declining defensive value if I am running an organization, especially when there are several decent alternatives available that won’t have draft pick compensation attached to them.
BaseballisLife
From that post from Pads above, it looks like 2.7% of 2nd round picks are as good as Rizzo. Maybe less because I would think that about half in any given year are pitchers.
Fire Krall
Sorry Baby Lil Cash….trying to take over Daddy’s cult?
Jean Matrac
There’s more to it than a simple comparison between Rizzo, and who some team drafts in the 2nd round. Rizzo is entering his age 33 season. How many more productive seasons will he have?
A 2nd round pick is potential talent in the pipeline, with years of cheap control and possible production. Like any draft pick, there’s the probability of failure. But signing Rizzo, like every FA out there, is a gamble as well.
JoeBrady
Rizzo has a lot more value then any 2nd round pick. So stop being delusional.
===================================
But that’s not the appropriate calculation. The choice is not Rizzo or a #2. The choice is Rizzo or a #2 PLUS $19.65M.
Since we have Diaz as a pretty good recent comp, would you prefer Rizzo, or Diaz + a #2?
Steve Adams
No team would give a pick to the Yankees. The compensatory pick for the team losing the free agent and the pick(s) forfeited by the team signing the free agent aren’t related.
The Yankees are a luxury-tax payor and would thus receive a comp pick after the fourth round if Rizzo declines and signs elsewhere. The pick(s) forfeited by a signing team are determined based on revenue sharing/luxury tax status.
Alkie
Is that right? Then I owe an apology to the board and, specifically the Yankee fan I just attempted to roast. I appreciate you explaining it (really).
Feel free to delete my erroneous comment then (if you have that ability).
I was incorrect and must admit it.
Yankee Clipper
Super cool man; much respect to you, Alkie, for being stand-up on that.
Deleted Userr
Nailed it
Wagner>Cobb
From a purely baseball perspective, I think it would behoove Rizzo to try and see out the rest of his career in New York, for however long that might be. The short porch in right, as well as the other hitter-friendly parks in the division, suit his swing. He could still put up some solid numbers there while also playing for a good team that always has a chance to win.
ctyank7
What’s the GM for life drinking?? 33 year old (34 next August) 1st baseman with a chronic back condition on a team where Stanton has to DH 90% of the time…
A wise executive thanks Rizzo for all he contributed and makes a deal for a more durable replacement, such as Jose Abreu.
YankeesBleacherCreature
I’d be all over signing Abreu if he hit left-handed.
Wagner>Cobb
Abreu isn’t much of a defender. He seems more suited to DH going forward as well. Seems like Rizzo is the best option unless they want to let him walk and start DJ at 1B every day.
#1WhiteSoxFan
Abreu is best 1B to convert the 3-6-3 DP. Also he chases down foul pop ups and easily catches them over his shoulder. Maybe his range is somewhat limited.
Abreu plays every day, healthy or not. Opposing pitchers hit him often and Abreu just shrugs it off and jogs to 1B.
A class act professional!
Wagner>Cobb
I do think he’s very good. I’m just not sure how good of a fit he is for them.
lemonsplash
Love to see Riz finish career with Cubs . Do agree with concerns over back issues
Macho King OG
I really do hope the Yanks watch their luxury tax number, especially with the Yankees Putrid performance against the Astros in the ALCS, and Boone’s Lousy management of the pitching staff, and that Worthless press conference, and the Excuses for losing, and Blaming the Fans, and Hal’s Silence to name a few things. But I hope they don’t over spend, and have to dip into the Billions of dollars they make in Attendance, Merch, and TV deals! Please don’t spend money to get the RIGHT players in here so you can compete with the Astros! Keep budget crunching to get Worthless Sht like Donaldson, Hicks, and IKF!
YankeesBleacherCreature
George? Is that you??
::cue “Unchained Melody”::
Fire Krall
more like the Dirty Dancin theme!
Fire Krall
Now I ve had the time of my life!
And I ve never loss like this before
Yes I swear, it’s the truth
And I owe it all to Hal and Boone.
Digdugler
Rizzo is tailor made for joke stadium so he either accepts or declines and works out a multi-year pact with the Yankees.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Just curious — how many members of the team you root for have homered in that joke stadium?
Deleted Userr
Shouldn’t they decline to extend the QO so as to give Rizzo more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps like the Dodgers did with Kershaw? Since they paid the luxury tax they only stand to lose a 4th/5th round sandwich pick if Rizzo walks anyway.
Yankee Clipper
That’s a really good point. Perhaps they believe Rizzo will accept with the $3.5M raise and they’re okay with having him back for a year at that amount.
Also, remember with Cashman it’s all about winning: winning the trade, winning the contract negotiations, winning each component, except of course the championship.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Good point, harambe. It seems to me that if they really want to keep Rizzo, this could backfire. They just made it harder for him to catch on with another team, and he might resent that.
Deleted Userr
So I suggest the Yankees do something I know would be stupid to prove a point a people take me seriously… lol
Yankee Clipper
It may not be stupid though. Attaching the QO is going to make it much more difficult on his FA bid, imo. Moreover, the Yankees losing Judge is going to complicate their relationship with Rizzo. They need him to return next year, imho, if for nothing else than his leadership, especially if Judge leaves.
Deleted Userr
@Yankee Clipper It would be clownishly stupid.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Or you read something elsewhere that led you to believe your point was stupid, so you came back with the “I was only kidding” story.
Deleted Userr
@Fink Ployed No, you can read my comments from the QO projections article.
Poster formerly known as . . .
I read your comments in that thread, where you said the QO offer should be automatic. Nevertheless, your comparison to the situation in LA with Kershaw was neither stupid nor illegitimate. Friedman said at the time:
“I think just with our respect for him and for what he’s done for this organization, that wasn’t something that we wanted to do and put him on that kind of clock when he wasn’t ready for it.”
Is Rizzo’s relationship with the Yankees equivalent to Kershaw’s with the Dodgers? Obviously not. Kershaw had a lot more equity with that franchise than Rizzo has with the Yankees.
Nevertheless, if the Yankees do want to keep Rizzo, extending the courtesy that the Dodgers extended to Kershaw might’ve made him more inclined to stay in the Bronx, whereas offering a QO they had reason to expect he’d reject placed an obstacle in the way of his negotiations with other teams.
Does that mean he won’t negotiate with other teams? No, it just undercuts his bargaining position. Does it mean another team won’t outbid the Yankees for his services? No, it just means he has the Yankees to blame for the likely fact that other offers might be fewer and lower because of the QO. And that despite compiling his best WAR since 2019.
Whether you believe Friedman was sincere or instead spinning his unwillingness to pay Kershaw as a show of respect, that’s up to you. All we know is that Kershaw ended up signing with the Dodgers.
I don’t view a comparison between the two free agents as clownishly stupid. If Judge walks, Rizzo’s leadership becomes more crucial on a team conspicuously lacking in other veteran leadership.
Poster formerly known as . . .
I should add that gaining a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Rizzo walks would be reason enough to offer the QO if they really don’t want him back, but whether or not they do want him back is unknown at present — at least to me.
msqboxer
Have to believe a Josh Bell would be better than a Rizzo.
ctyank7
Josh Bell, another good post-Riz option.
Yankee Clipper
Switch-hitter and younger than Rizzo. Not sure how his numbers would line up against Rizzo, but I can say he’s a higher contact guy, usually, and the lineup desperately needs those. He’s a lifetime .262 hitter with at least average OBP and roughly 20HR seasons to count on. Plus, he averages only 100 strikeouts per season, which isn’t terrible.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Bell’s BA has followed a pattern remarkably close to Rizzo’s in prior years, with Rizzo’s being the better of the two until 2020:
fangraphs.com/players/anthony-rizzo/3473/compariso…
I liked what I saw of Bell in the postseason, but I don’t see him being a leader to replace Rizzo’s leadership, especially if Judge walks. But maybe that’s a function of my unfamiliarity with Bell. Maybe he also takes the initiative to walk to the mound when a pitcher needs some support, the way Rizzo does.
Macho King OG
It is George, and all of you Red Sox fans are coming to Hell!
“I’m on the Highway to Hell, Season Ticket On A1 Way Ride!”
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Rizzo is four different players in one: A 6 WAR player if he stayed healthy and consistent over a full season, a -1.0 WAR player if his cold streaks represented his average production, a 1 WAR player when he’s hitting home runs but barely hitting for average and about a 4 WAR player when he’s doing his level best but not his peak performance, rolled into one package.
What does that give you? 2.5 WAR- which is exactly what he is. Technically he’s worth about $18.75M per season, amazingly. 1 WAR for veterans who typically produce over 2 WAR per season was valued at around $8.5M, and 1 WAR for veterans who typically produce under 2 WAR per season was valued at around $6.5M. Rizzo is a veteran who produces over 2 WAR. That made him worth $19.55M last season, incredibly, even with the extended trips to the IL.
Rizzo seems like a guy who is giving you what you’re gonna get from him, for better or worse. He’s this weird Frankenstein of a player who will at times give you the kind of performance for a few weeks at a time that, if sustained, would produce 10 WAR a season and then he becomes an empty uniform for a few weeks, then he goes on the IL at a crucial point in the season and is simply unavailable thanks to his own body’s weak points, then he comes back and produces for the most part- and when he’s playing he’s the best defensive first baseman in the league– when he is playing…
If he believes he can only get 1 year on the open market and someone will sign him with the QO attached to him for the draft pick compensation, he’ll take it. If he thinks he can get 2 years, that will mean he can beat the guaranteed money and he will not take it.
I think he and the Yankees come to a compromise. Equivalent to if they paid him 1 year $19.65M 1 year $16.35M, or just $18M and $18M, because if they’re willing to risk paying him $19.65M next year assuming he gives them comparable production and ability to stay on the field with the hope he stays healthy for more of the season and with the likelihood of extended trips to the IL but the ability to stretch his productivity out thanks to the extra rest, he might as well be worth around the same the year after that.
JoeBrady
About right on both sides. Rizzo likely can do better than the $16M option, and the NYY don’t have a lot of down side to this play. If I were them, I would let him walk, take the #2, let DJ play 1st, and put the $19.65 of savings into a Verlander or DeGrom signing.
But even if Rizzo accepts, it still isn’t a bad deal for the Yankees.
Jean Matrac
I understand by let him walk you mean not try to sign him to a 2-3 year deal. But, you only get the #2 if he declines the QO, and he might accept it. I would if it were between, say a 2/$30M offer and the QO. I’d rather be entering free-agency one year from now without the draft compensation attached, rather than 2 years from now, because of the age.
Mikenmn
This isn’t really a bad move. If he accepts, they pay him, but all they are required to do is one year, and he still has value. If he goes elsewhere, they have the pick. This team already has a lot of issues with inconsistent and erratic performance, and Judge could leave. It’s possible the Yankees might want some shorter-term obligations.
uvmfiji
Perfect move by Yankees
south side hit men
Isn’t he very good friends with Judge? Almost to the point of “I’ll go where you go”? Any team that can sign Judge can then afford to give Rizzo 3/50.
YankeesBleacherCreature
It’s not like they have both have to work until 65 to retire. They have six months each year to bromance it up, work out, and travel together. They’re def bff.
sjwil1
Rizzo, take the QO. the year after, you can find something at least $12m.
Poster formerly known as . . .
By retaining Cashman, Hal has assured the Yankees of a 14th season without a World Series appearance.
Now Cashman has committed to Donaldson as the 2023 starting third baseman.
“Here at GM meetings, Brian Cashman says Josh Donaldson is the Yankees’ third baseman next year.
“Cash went on to laud Donaldson’s defense and says his offense is better than what he showed last season, they believe he still has a lot left” – S.I.’s Pat Ragazzo
Whether this is prompted primarily by Hal’s refusal to eat the excessive salary Cashman stupidly traded for, or if it’s Cashman’s ego refusing to admit another mistake, who knows? But this is a declaration of apathy and complacency that’s all too familiar.
I guess the rest of the offseason will be about how weak a team they settle for.
Go ahead, Cashman — prove me wrong. Please.
Yankee Clipper
This is so embarrassing on so many levels. Their refusal to acknowledge terrible play, their hyperbolic statements about what the “internal metrics” value guys at, which is wholly inconsistent with the entire league, every statistical measure, and fanbase. And, the fact that they seem fine with putting a bad product out there, openly excusing it, lying about it as if the fans are not seeing exactly what we are watching, and then letting the team take the fans’ understandable, but harsh, reaction.
All so they don’t have to eat any money. It’s literally prioritizing money over all else. As an example on a microcosmic level, a successful pizza place wants to save money so they start increasing prices. Then, they start compromising on the ingredients people love (first the sauce, then the cheese), and eventually they’re struggling because nobody eats there. It’s counterproductive and counterintuitive.
LAD reportedly passed the Yankees (depending on the report) in revenue last year. Hal doesn’t realize that by saving millions now, he’s costing billions for the immediate future.
With Boone’s inexcusable postseason mistakes you knew it was going to be bad when they said he was good and kept him.
Poster formerly known as . . .
It’s kind of puzzling how the son of a guy who took an $8.5 investment to a stratospheric return on investment by spending lavishly could seem so opposed to taking the same approach. He can’t be unaware of what his father accomplished.
As for Cashman’s gushing about Donaldson, if he believes his own words, I think he’s kidding himself. Donaldson’s whiff rate is up, and his hard-hit rate is way down. That’s not the sort of thing that improves with age, and Donaldson will be 37 years old next year.
Poster formerly known as . . .
In a minor oversight, I left the “million” out of my reference to George’s initial investment. I mean, George’s ROI was phenomenal, but . . .
Yankee Clipper
Interesting point I heard on talk media… referencing “the process” as the focus of the operation is apparently also in Moneyball. That makes sense and is incredibly sad. But it confirms suspicions that he’s been trying to blend moneyball with 3 major contracts.
The process…. What a joke. Man, it would be like an episode of that old show with a certain former President on it if I were in charge. I’d be walking around “you’re fired, you’re fired, you’re fired.”
Cashman, Boone, the analytic team, the mental health dummy, and the PR people. Heck, I’d even fire Aaron Hicks.
PutPeteinthehall
Think you’re right. He ends up with 35 mil for two years. He got a raise for next season and another thrown in at 15 plus. After that it’s maybe a career unless he’s willing and wanted somewhere. Would be much less money.
Cg141
Nobody is outbidding the Yankees on him and losing a draftpick. He is a Yankee next season most likely. Just a matter of what they agree to.