Carlos Correa will become a free agent five days after the World Series draws to a close — the date on which a decision regarding his contract’s first of two opt-out clauses is due. Correa has already made clear that he plans to opt out of the final two years and $70.2MM, returning to free agency, though he’s expressed a hope that he and the Twins can work out a long-term pact. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey acknowledged last month that the team had already had some dialogue with agent Scott Boras about a potential new deal, although obviously, no agreement has been reached.
For his part, Twins owner Jim Pohlad made clear in a recent interview with Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he hopes to see Correa back in the fold next season and is very open to a new contract. “I’m totally on board with him coming back,” said Pohlad. “Definitely. Absolutely. I love the guy. He’s a huge asset and benefit to the team. But I don’t know how it’s going to go.”
While some Twins fans have perhaps been holding out hope for an extension before Correa’s opt-out date is due, that’s never felt especially likely, and Pohlad himself suggested that he expects Correa and Boras to test the market. Pohlad called Boras an “aggressive” agent and noted that it’s still too early to tell what sort of offers the market might yield.
At the time of the signing, the $35.1MM annual rate on Correa’s three-year, $105.3MM deal in Minnesota was the fourth-largest AAV in Major League history. He reportedly sought more than $330MM over a deal of at least ten years last offseason, and while that might be an ambitious goal a year later and a year older, Correa will also enter the market with a new set of potential bidders and without the burden of a qualifying offer. The Dodgers, who largely sat out the shortstop market last winter due to Trea Turner’s presence, for instance, have already been linked to Correa before free agency even commences.
Regardless of whether the record-setting free-agent deal Correa sought last winter is there in the months to come, there’s still good reason to believe he can command a lucrative, long-term arrangement. On a rate basis, Correa’s 2022 season was largely in line with his 2021 performance.
This year’s .291/.366/.467 slash compares quite favorably to last season’s .274/.366/.487 slash. By measure of wRC+, which weights for the leaguewide dip in power and a home park that wasn’t necessarily as friendly to Correa as Houston’s Minute Maid Park (and its short porch), Correa’s 2022 season was actually better: 140 to 133. Correa’s 89.9 mph average exit velocity was only a hair below 2021’s mark of 90.2 mph, and he actually improved upon his barrel rate (9.4% in 2021, 11.4% in 2022) and hard-hit rate (42.5% to 44.7%).
[Related: Minnesota Twins Offseason Outlook]
Correa’s defensive metrics took a major step back from his 2021 Platinum Glove showing, but year-to-year fluctuations in Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average are fairly commonplace. That’s not to completely write off the struggles, and some teams may view them as a portent for further decline at the position. Even if that were the case, however, Statcast measures Correa’s arm as the sixth-strongest among all shortstops, averaging 88 mph per throw (and 14th among all non-first-baseman infielders). A move to third base, if ever needed, would likely be plenty feasible.
Setting aside Correa’s broader market appeal and turning back to the Twins, specifically, Minnesota has just $32.5MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books, plus another $36MM or so in projected arbitration salaries. Looking ahead to 2024, Byron Buxton’s $15MM base salary is the only notable guarantee on the books. There’s room for the Twins to make a market offer if Pohlad truly feels convicted in his comments regarding Correa, but it’s a fair question whether the Twins will be willing to outbid the field with a franchise-record deal when there are plenty of other needs on the roster — particularly on the pitching staff.
Milwaukee-2208
Anyone else think this dude is highly overrated and overhyped?
Orioles2024
He won’t be back in Minnesota. But he’ll be cashing a large check from someone.
RunDMC
“When I [Correa] go to the mall and I go to the Dior store and I want something, I get it. I ask how much it costs, and I buy it. If you really want something, you just go get it,” he said. “I’m the product here. If they want my product, they’ve just got to come get it.”
Twins already have an advantage with the Mall of America. Not sure how anyone could compete.
Orioles2024
Outlet stores have the best prices! Malls are dying!
RunDMC
Mall stores are dying, but it’s not b/c of outlet stores with their inferior quality. Jeff Bezos didn’t become the world’s richest person making movies and building phallic-shaped rockets.
Pads Fans
Outlet stores are the same quality, just not the latest versions. You pay less for last seasons Coach purse or Dior design than you do the latest fashion.
YankeesBleacherCreature
It’s is not. Many well-known brands make lesser-quality merchandise specifically for their outlet stores. Last season’s/year’s items are often sold off to closeout stores like TJ Maxx and/or its equivalent.
Orioles2024
I was just joking around but talking about the tanger outlets for example.
I don’t believe they sell last seasons stuff. It just cuts out the middle man in their outlet stores.
Pads Fans
No they don’t. Name brands like Dior and Coach and Brooks Brothers sell merchandise that is from last season or last year in their outlet stores.
It is the merchandise that didn’t sell in their retail operation and instead of writing it off, they sell it at a discount in a branded outlet store. The same merchandise, not inferior quality. It would destroy their luxury brand to sell lower quality goods.
You will never see lines like Dior or Coach or Brooks Brothers in TJ Maxx.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Dior is a luxury brand owned by LVMH and is in a category of its own. Like Louis Vuitton and Burberry, their excess inventory gets destroyed/re-purposed and is almost never on sale or discounted bc, as you’ve noted, it diminishes their brand image. Also we can’t lump clothing and accessories bc they’re often run by separate departments. Coach and Brooks Brother are mid-tier brands.
outinleftfield
Don’t tell my wife that. Every time we go to New York we have to make the trek to Woodbury Commons Outlet mall. My credit card is still aching from her stop at the Dior outlet store there. Add the 4 grand she spent a the Coach, Saks, and Prada outlet stores and the outlet mall cost me more than the rest of the trip.
YankeesBleacherCreature
oag.ca.gov/consumers/general/outlet-stores
YankeesBleacherCreature
Ah Woodbury Commons… I used to get dragged there as a kid every summer. Haven’t been back in ages.
outinleftfield
I think its the biggest outlet mall anywhere. Bigger than Las Vegas and its mostly the luxury brands. I dread it because it is always a 5 figure outing. Just glad its only every 2nd or 3rd year.
outinleftfield
Yeah, that is not at all true about stores like Dior, Prada, and Saks 5th Ave. My wife follows this stuff religiously and she is going to the outlet mall to get deep discounts on last years fashions. Still spends more than most people do in a decade on clothes and accessories, but it would be worse for my credit cards if she just went to the retail stores.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Woodbury is an outlier and is a major int’l tourist attraction. One of my ex-gf used to be SVP of men’s merchandising for Saks in the city. She approved stuff for purchase for their flagships and their outlets.
99socalfrc
Dodger fan rooting for Carlos Correa would have me pissing my pants laughing. There might not be anything more that I want from life right now than the hypocritical flip that would come from that.
Rocker49
Right! lol Los Karens wouldn’t know what to do if Correa was on their team!!!
MLB Top 100 Commenter
No different than if the Indianapolis Colts would have signed Tom Brady. Professional sports regard cheaters, steroid users and aggressive agents who create bad PR for the game.
99socalfrc
It’s actually entirely different. Colts fans never spent 5 years crying foul and turning someone like Joe Kelly into a cult hero for going full pouty face.
Rocker49
Exactly! The only reason most people know who Joe Karen Kelly is, is because of his temper tantrum on the mound and crybaby face.
Valkyrie
Another “cheaters” post. I’m detecting a pattern here Manny (oh the irony)
LordD99
That amusement will wear off quickly as he makes the Dodgers better.
99socalfrc
The only thing making the Dodgers better is Kershaw, Turner, Muncy, Taylor & Bellinger taking laps in a time machine.
citizen
correa (or boras ) wants mike trout money but hes only worth javier baez money. let him walk, spend the dollars elsewhere.
22 hr/64 rbi isnt terrible but not impressive.
0 SB from a ss position is not good.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Baez Career OBP .302 OPS 766
Swanson .321 738
Lindor .339 788
Correa CareerOBP .357 OPS 836
Trea .355 842
Seager .357 851
Tatis Jr. .369 .965
Judge .394 .977
Correa may be a cheater, but he is better than Baez at the plate.
utah cornelius
You’d have to pull out Correa’s 2017 trashcan career year: .391 ..941, substantially above your .357 .836 average. Then there’s the OPS+ gap: 155 (2017) vs. 129 (career). Again, you pull out the 2017 numbers, those career numbers are going to drop appreciably.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Utah
I agree with that. But his batting stats remain far above Baez, which is my point.
And I think Baez is a really fun player to watch in the field. But slightly more an asset to a fan than the team.
utah cornelius
True
TrueOutcomeFan
This is simply not true. You pull 2017 you get the same guy.
Samuel
Jim Pohlad is the new Jerry Reinsdorf.
Edp007
Interesting comments from the owner. Music to Boras’ ears. Didn’t have to go public with those comments.
Regardless of what the peanut gallery here thinks of Correa , if the owner has a hard on for him , he might get paid and stay.
thickiedon
Or he’s bluffing
Samuel
Edp007;
The thing is this…..
For his elite clients that he wants long-term contracts for, Scott Boras negotiates directly with the owner.
His reasoning is that a GM may be fired while the player is still under contract, and the person coming in to replace him / her may renege on any verbal agreements they had – leaving his player / client in the lurch.
So Jim Poland is the guy that will be negotiating with Boras, unless someone else signs Correa……but Boras always pits owners against one another to runup the price.
This years 2 most desperate team owners / FO heads are the Rangers (again) and the Giants. Rangers have 2 SS’s from last offseason, so the Giants will be the primary team going after Bogaerts. Turner or Correa. There has to be a mystery team – Jon Heyman says it’s the Dodgers…but Jon Heyman is 95% wrong all the time on everything. Boras has very probably already found someone, we just don’t know who.
Silly season is almost upon us!
fburner88
Wanting him back and being willing to back the Brinks truck up are two different things.
Pohlads are well known tightwads.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Mauer? Morneau?
Pads Fans
Correa. $35.1 million AAV is not a small amount of money. Its the most over for an infielder.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
The Twins had the 17th highest payroll among 30 MLB teams in 2022 and Minneapolis-St. Paul is the 18th largest market among 30 MLB franchises.
Pads Fans
The Twins are in the 12th largest TV market and 16th largest metro in population.
slydevil
Yeah, if I was getting down to $3b I’d cutting back too.
utah cornelius
5% annual return on $3B is $150M. And 5% is really hard to get right now.
Yanks2
Correa is the only player I dislike more than Machado
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Machado will probably finish second to Goldie in the 2022 NL MVP tally.
cpdpoet
Doesn’t mean Yanks2 still can’t dislike him…right?
Yanks2
Stellar ball player. No doubt. I just don’t like his antics. I’m not one of those people that makes fun of his ears or appearance because that’s just mean and petty. However I just don’t like his attitude or behavior on the diamond
Sideline Redwine
Good luck with that. He only signs with Minnesota if they go above and beyond everyone else with money and years…I cannot fathom him returning.
Dorothy_Mantooth
All it takes is one owner to commit to a ridiculous contract (see the Texas Rangers last year) and the player/agent get what they want. I love how teams like Houston have internal policies not to exceed 5 years for free agent deals. All owners can’t agree to this or allegations of collusion will come from the MLBPA but it would be better for baseball if these teams with larger payrolls and larger revenue sources had similar, internal ‘caps’ on contract length. There’s no way a team should give Correa a 10 year deal at over $30M per year. 10/$250 is even a stretch and that deal would need to be front-loaded too if they ever want to offload him later in his career. These 10 year deals seem to follow a pattern of 3-4 years of elite performance, 3-4 years of average performance and 2-4 years of below average performance as the player ages. There are a few exceptions of course (Harper, Trout and Betts may be elite for 5-7 years+) but the end always has a downturn in performance and really hurts the team in the last 2-3 seasons+ of the deal. Look at Miggy Cabrera & Albert Pujols as two recent examples of this. Buyer beware on Aaron Judge this offseason too.
Samuel
Dorothy_Mantooth;
Teams interested in Correa at a price for a period of time should offer that. Say 5 years, $31m.
If teams figure Correa is worth $33m a year for 5 years, that’s what they should offer him. Another team that wants him might offer a higher AAV – $35 per year for 3 years. That’s not collusion.
The fact that no team might want to give Correa (or any player) a 7-10 year contract is their right. If collusion is pushed, teams can easily defend themselves by documenting what you wrote – that in the later years teams are paying large for decreased production most of the time.
I like Correa and think these posts demeaning his past performance are ridiculous. He was the leader, heart & soul of a contending and WS Astros team and easily their best player. His issue was staying healthy. I’d guess when the Astros offered him a 5 year contract that included a bonus clause for games played per year at a lower base salary.
Heck, if MLB teams had to defend their actions on long term contracts, they start with the one to Tatis, Jr. which in turn started these outrageous demands for SS’s long-term contracts at outrageous yearly salaries.
Pads Fans
Pohlad just increased the price tag for Correa for whatever team eventually signs him. Not sure that team will be the Twins, but I do know that who ever it is they will be signing off on a 8+ year, $275+ million deal. If it goes 10 years, $325+ million.
Favorites?
Dodgers have the money and something that happened in 2017 won’t effect their decision. With Trea Turner asking for as much money as Correa and being a year older and not as good defensively, they will certainly be the favorites.
The Giants need to replace an aging Crawford and they have the money. Longoria is gone, so a move to 3B is an option for Crawford. This season’s collapse after a 107 win 2021 will certainly make them more likely to invest in to players. Sitting at the bottom of the heap on defense will also be a motivator.
Also in the running?
The Cubs seem like a great fit. Their payroll is now low enough and they have a need.
Phillies have the money and a need, although I think that they will be more of a player for Bogaerts if he opts out.
The Mariners have said they want to sign a top SS to play 2B, so they are a possibility, if not a good one.
Also in the AL West is the Angels who are in desperate need of a SS, but may not be in play because of the team being for sale.
Atlanta would also have to be considered in the running because they stand to lose Swanson. Swanson is not close to the caliber of player that Correa is, about half the WAR over the last 6 seasons, but he is reportedly seeking top notch dollars.
Darkhorse? The Orioles. Elias scouted, campaigned for, and eventually signed Correa. The Orioles are on the verge of contending, they only have $27 million on the books for next season, and the light hitting 27 year old Mateo is not any kind of a block to signing another SS.
That is a lot of teams that could be bidding on Correa and as the article said, there is no QO this season. Its going to get interesting.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Pohlad did not increase Correa’s deal by making a public comment. Comments like that by owners are for the benefit of the fanbase and the owner’s ego, nothing more. Maybe if he specified the amount of the team’s current offer and guaranteed it with his personal reputation, but that did not and would not happen. The amount of the deal is dictated by the offers that are made. Otherwise, the “Mystery Team” would have won the last three Word Series, because they are in on all the stars.
Pads Fans
How to say you don’t understand the free market without saying it.
Pohlad, the guy who put up $35 million per year for Correa, just said he is willing to go all in on him. Of course that drives up the price. It sets the minimum at what he was already put his name on the dotted line for plus a longer term.
Only Pohlad can make an offer to Correa until after the WS is over, so your comment about naming a price he is wiling to go now is not in line with reality.
So … please.
Canuckleball
Pohlad never made any commitment whatsoever. He was the epitome of non-committal. All he said was sure we’d like to have him back… No mention of money. You read more into it then was there.
“I’m totally on board with him coming back,” said Pohlad. “Definitely. Absolutely. I love the guy. He’s a huge asset and benefit to the team. But I don’t know how it’s going to go.”
It’s the last sentance that turns this all into a simple PR statement
Replace Correa with Judge and it works the same. It’s just a generic statemtent meant to make the fans feel good before the player in question is signed by someone else.
I’m totally on board with Judge coming here,” said Pohlad. “Definitely. Absolutely. I love the guy. He’s a huge asset and benefit to the team. But I don’t know how it’s going to go
Every owner/GM says these things. Means nothing
C Yards Jeff
Is this Pohlad’s mo? Does he give interviews like this often? Rarely? As a Twins fan, does it bother you that the owner would make these comments public? It would me. Comes across as an owner who is involved in the daily decision making of team direction. Much prefer model where owner is deep in the background and enjoys letting his baseball decision making employees decide the direction of the team. If this interview is a “one off” and Mr Pohlad is typically out of the picture, cool.
Orioles2024
Lol it increased his market If you think baseball heads care about puff pieces like this that could very well contain complete crap.
Orioles2024
“He’s a huge asset and benefit to the team. But I don’t know how it’s going to go.”
That also doesn’t sounds like “I’m going to do everything I can to bring him back”
This in reality means little to nothing for his market.
foppert
Agreed. Read it in a similar way. He’s great, would love to have him back, but Boras is his agent and it most likely won’t be us topping the bidding.
outinleftfield
I can only find one instance of Pohlad commenting on players and that was in 2019 during the season when he said money would not be a factor in picking up players at the trade deadline. Not a Twins fans, so I don’t know what they did that season.
outinleftfield
I doubt the Angels are in on Correa. With the team up for sale I don’t see Arte anteing up for any top free agents. As an Angels fan I would love to see them add him. Rendon at 3B, Correa at SS, Rengifo at 2B FT, and Walsh. That is a pretty solid infield as long as Rendon is healthy.
slydevil
He never seemed like a great chemistry fit. Not a toxic player at all, good influence, but never seemed committed. Correa was there also it seemed like 2023 was always in his head.
masisk33
The Twins have too many internal options (Gordon/Polanco/Royce Lewis/Austin Martin) at SS to justify spending $35MM or more on Correa… If they spent that money on a front-line starting pitcher, it would make more sense for this club.
Maybe they get creative and trade for a top tier SP? Correa could be a sign-and-trade chip. Maybe. If they re-sign Correa and do not add TOP TIER pitching (bullpen included), they will not be competitive in 2023.
Canuckleball
Sign and Trades don’t happen in MLB. They are used in the NBA to get around the salary cap. If they somehow sign Correa, their keeping him.
If any team signed a player and then traded him shortly thereafter, no free agent would ever sign with that managment team ever again.
masisk33
maybe at the deadline?