Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
As the calendar flips to November, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. World Series Game 3 Rained Out, Improving Philadelphia’s Pitching Matchups
Yesterday’s opener mentioned the availability of Phillies aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler among the biggest obstacles facing Philadelphia headed into their three game homestand, and that obstacle has been partially removed due to the postponement of last night’s game: Aaron Nola is now in line to start Game 4 tomorrow on regular rest, while Houston is opting to maintain their rotation order, leaving ace Justin Verlander to start Game 5 with an extra day of rest, the same decision the Phillies have made for Wheeler in Game 6, with Noah Syndergaard likely set to take Nola’s place starting Game 5, potentially allowing him to pitch deeper into the game than he would have if he had pitched last night, as previously planned. Tonight’s game will see lefty Ranger Suarez toe the rubber for Philadelphia opposite Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr.
2. Albert Pujols Officially Retires
The retirement of Albert Pujols sees one of baseball’s all-time legends step away from the game, but it also poses a question that, as recently as this spring, would’ve been unexpected: How is St. Louis going to replace his production? Pujols slashed a phenomenal .270/.345/.550 in his final season, good for a 154 OPS+ that registers as his best mark since 2010, his age 30 season. Nolan Arenado declining to opt-out of his contract taking one major offseason question for the Cardinals off the table, but Pujols’s retirement combined with the impending retirement of longtime catcher Yadier Molina are going to leave St. Louis with plenty of work to do this offseason. After all, only Aaron Judge posted a better offensive season than Pujols in 2022 among pending free agents (min. 300 PA), and no catcher in baseball has the sort of illustrious reputation as a defensive catcher and game-caller that Molina has. Speculation has swirled early on in this this offseason connecting the Cardinals to the longtime catcher of their division rival Cubs, Willson Contreras. Contreras represents a particularly intriguing option for St. Louis, as he could help cover for the loss of both Pujols and Molina, giving the Cardinals a quality right-handed bat to slot into the DH slot on occasion while also shoring up a catching corps that includes Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera.
3. Orioles Have Infield Surplus Headed Into 2023
BaltimoreBaseball’s Rich Dubroff this morning discussed a coming logjam in the Orioles infield this offseason, suggesting that if no trades are made, Ramon Urias may be pushed into a utility role by the impending arrival of Jordan Westburg in addition to the presence of Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo. Dubroff notes that this ignores players such as Terrin Vavra and Joey Ortiz, who could be squeezed out of playing time if no changes are made to the infield mix. The Orioles stepping into the infield market as a seller hoping to acquire win-now pieces would be an interesting development, with pitching being the clearest need for a team that lost John Means to Tommy John surgery early this year and had just one starter who made at least 20 starts with an ERA+ over 100. The Marlins stand out as a possible trade partner with their surplus of pitching, offensive woes, and tight budget, but there’s no doubt a variety of teams would be interested in adding a player like Urias should he hit the trade market.
Go Go Power Ranger!
Kawabunga!
Urias makes sense to go.
Great D at 3B. Offense won’t kill you either but Baltimore has Gunnar now and that’s his spot. Marlins really do make sense with their surplus of pitching. Realistically we could package Urias + one of Joey Ortiz/Vavra/Norby/Westburg to get one of their arms.
I agree, Elias just has to decide who else to package with him.
The O’s could send either Santander or Hays to Miami. They’re looking for Outfielders. They could package both with an infielder prospect and pickup one of the Marlins better arms and maybe more.
Hays yeah.
Baltimore and Miami line up in a lot of ways. Groshans got some OF reps in Toronto also.
Don’t know what their game plan but a CF like hays makes a lot of sense.
Urias provides GG d at 3B and they could flip Wendle or use him as a utility piece like he ought to be. Miami needs a lot. I like Urias’ bat better than Wendle’s at this point too. He was above league average offensively.
Urias definitely to Miami. Ng is looking for players with MLB level experience to plug in until her in house position prospects are ready. To get someone like a SP Lopez (sp?) and a lower level SP prospect, Urias alone doesn’t get it done. So Elias has to include a 2nd MLB level experienced player to make it happen? That would be either Hays or Santander. Ng probably wants Santander but Elias offers Hays. Who wins?
C Yards Jeff;
I love Ramon Urias’ play, but he’ll probably go.
However, if they also trade another RH bat from the OF that team is going to being seeing a lot of LH pitchers every series – starting and from the bullpen as most of their LH hitters do not hit LH pitchers well at this point in their careers.
Orioles are in the catbird seat. They don’t have to force trades.
Two other considerations:
1. Not so sure the Marlins want a 3B back if they trade one of their best pitchers. They’re covered at 3B. Urias can play 2B, but he’s not that good at it. He’s GG caliber at 3B.
2. Cleveland is looking for a starting pitcher. They might be interested in Luzardo, Cabrera, or Garrett from Miami. They can offer one of 3 young CF’s. In that scenario Miami could keep Lopez.
Sam, I don’t think the Marlins are covered at 3B. Brian Anderson didn’t have a great season and is arb eligible for the last time this off-season. Urias is a clear upgrade on both sides of the ball that’s cheaper with more control.
Definitely agree with you that O’s have more lefty bats than most clubs but on the infield all of Westburg, Ortiz and Norby are RHH and likely direct Urias roster replacements since Gunnar will play everyday on the left side regardless of a Lefty being on the mound.
Os are gonna be a very dangerous team this off-season because they have the money to pay any free agent, farm to trade for anyone or ability to deal from the MLB roster and still get better with multiple MLB ready prospects.
CHS O’sFan;
1. The more I think about it – the Marlins want to trade a pitcher for offense. Urias hit .248 / .305 / .414 /.720. His main value comes for his D at 3B.
2. Berti and Wendle play 3B. If they keep Rojas at SS next year, Groshans will get some playing time there.
I believe Anderson won’t be on the team next year. A nice fit for the Red Sox off the bench…among other teams.
@Sam + CHS; great stuff as always and when differing opinions arise done with tasteful discourse.
Thanks to both of you for pointing out the lefty, righty batter issue. This was not on my amatuer GM hour radar! LOL. It’s got me curious as to how Elias and company will address it!
C Yards: why would the Marlins be interested in trading a younger, more valuable, more established player at a position that is far more difficult to fill (starting pitching) for a league average bat with 768 career plate appearances going into his age-29 season? For the sake of comparison, the Yankees apparently had Gleyber Torres on the table for Lopez.
They should’ve taken Gleyber coming off a down year.
Obviously his O upside Is much higher but if you aggregate the past 3 seasons they look like similar guys. Lopez is a year closer to FA now as well.
It’ll take more than Urias straight up but he could definitely be a piece if Miami is looking for a 3B.
@crabw; I agree with you. Thus Hays or Santander included with Urias. To make it fair, Marlins throw in a low level SP prospect. Per their GM Ng, The Fish are looking for seasoned MLB level players to be plugged in to the line up until their own position player talent is ready. Plus, looks like the Marlin’s owner has a salary cap constraint. Hays, Urias and Santander all fit within it.
The Marlins biggest needs are CF and 1B so they would probably be more interested in Mullins and Mountcastle than Urias.
Mountcastle should be 100% expendable too. Trade him before arbitration years make him too expensive and he still has some value.
@skinsfandfw; I hear ya! It almost looked like the new LF fence dimension got in to his head. Maybe time to move on from him?
@King Floch; the Fish need help at first? Interesting. Ng is looking for seasoned help. Sounds like Mountcastle. Plus he fits within the Marlin’s salary constraint.
Mounty is a question mark. He’s still young and his Expected stats based on his hit data were much stronger.
A team like the O’s will probably unlock a little more from him. He’s never going to be a superstar but I can see him being a plus 1B & being RH helps on this squad.
I would think the O’s dealing Urias and Mountcastle would be interesting but the return from the Marlins would need to increase a bit as Mountcastle is more valuable than Hays or Santander.
If the O’s deal Mountcastle, I’d like to see them explore the Jose Abreu market to get a veteran presence in the middle of their lineup.
@CYJeff
Exactly, which is why I think Mountcastle for Lopez is a decent starting framework for a deal. The Orioles definitely have the money to sign one of the FA 1Bs like Bell or Rizzo to replace Mountcastle, or Santander could potentially move to first since he has some experience there from when he was a teenager and minor leaguer.
@King Floch; interesting. I like it. Hey, whaddya think about Abreu? I’m on the fence because of age.
@CYJeff
Abreu hit well this year but his power kind of vanished, which is a concern at his age, plus he hits right handed, which makes OPACY a bad fit, IMO. Of the FA 1Bs, Bell would probably be my first choice if Mountcastle were to be dealt for pitching- he walks a lot and he switch hits, which makes him a better fit with the new LF wall at OPACY.
Definitely Bell before Abreau and Rizzo. He kind of reminds me of Santander a bit. I get the impression neither one “could give a damn where the fences are; just as long as I get my hacks in” LOL.
If Rizzo didn’t have the back issue, maybe. And Abreau, agreed, old. Plus, maybe Mt Waltimore is a turn off and he passes on the Os!?
Still think the Astros take 3 and 4 while losing game 5 and winning it all game 6 at home. Phillies defense will cost them this series
That’s cute that you think they’re going to win 2 of 3 at CBP
It’s cute that you don’t know the Astros road record was better than the Phillies home record this year.
Which is meaningless in the playoffs.
Thank you for educating him
Phillies finish this at home.
Wish I knew you in person so we could bet on that. No chance Astros lose 3 in a row
I’m thinking the Phillies take game 3 by the score of 7-0 and play great defense.
last year was amazing for pujols. as a rangers fan in st. louis. that hates him (and everyone else…..david freese went to school 2 miles from me) for 2011, i was at game 6. adore him for destroying the angels franchise, and am literally dumbfounded by what he did this year. i thought he’d hit 5 hr in 100 ABs against lefties if he was lucky. 24 bombs,…
The Angels could use a 3B considering Rendon is likely already planning his next IL stint. And he can move over in the unlikely event that Rendon actually plays in 2023.
still laughing at your IL comment, so true
I agree I enjoyed Urias as well, but he’s going to be the odd man out if the Orioles need to deal from IF surplus. Surely Odor also out, which leaves Vavra and Henderson in.
I think SP is by far the #1 need, the rotation’s improved up and down if they can find a guy who can just be above average overall for 30 starts and provide an example/stability for the young guys. I’d even be ok with Lyles as a 5th starter because he can eat innings.
They could probably deal Hays or Santander for pitching as well as they think Stowers is also MLB ready.
I agree they don’t have a balanced lineup, could use another righty or two. Santander adds value as a switch hitter (along with AR) but I think we just saw his peak power season and he’s a “trade high” guy.
Thornton Mellon;
If they trade Hays they’re trading their backup CF that spells Mullins vs. LH pinchers. Additionally, the vast LH at Camden Yards is very possibly the worst corner OF to play in MLB next to Fenway’s RF. Hays is exceptional out there. The Orioles take Hays out of there regularly and that’s going to be a problem for their pitchers.
Ryan McKenna plays CF when Mullins sits against lefties, another poor take from Samuel
baseball99;
Yes, sometimes.
Tell me – with a couple of rookies making the team including OF’s in 2023, is McKenna guaranteed a job?
Another poor take on your part.
The orioles can deal Hays and be fine defensively.
At some point you have Cowser. Stowers has a plus glove and you have McKenna. The only issue is the lineup imbalance of LH hitters. But Hays doesn’t mash lefties so I don’t feel like that’s a huge consideration with him specifically.
If the O’s want a RH bat that hits lefties that’s something you have to go get in FA. There’s plenty of corner types/DHs who hit LH’s better than hays.
If the return is a strong pitcher—-I’m letting him go.
Samuel-
Hays was mediocre in LF this year and is best-suited for RF at OPACY. McKenna is the Orioles’ backup CF.
Hays is a plus defender.
Advanced metrics didn’t love him. UZR saw him as a positive but OAA graded him below average.
Think that’s just noise. Hays was never replaced defensively late in games and looked perfectly good to me. He has a history of being a strong D OF’er also.
“Hays is a plus defender”
In RF, sure. In LF (at OPACY) and CF, no. He was never a particularly fast runner and he is already slowing down.
Eh. He isn’t slow.
Maybe I’m missing something watching him. Looked fine to me. He always take the more challenging corner v. Santander.
@Sam
It’s pretty hard to make an argument for Hays having to be on the team to be our backup CF.
He covered 28 innings in 2022. Nice plus for him but hardly something that we need to rely on him for. Stowers can cover backup CF is you really think McKenna is making it.
@Orioles2024
Hays isn’t exactly slow, but he’s not particularly fast either, and speed is usually one the first skills to start declining. In 2017, his sprint speed was 28.9 ft/s (92nd percentile). This year it was 27.8 (61st percentile), and that trend will only continue going forward.
McKenna’s sprint speed was 29.4 ft/s (94th percentile) this year btw.
Yeah I’m with you. I’d like to see Hays’ data for this coming season though. He doesn’t look significantly slower to me. The D metrics are typically reliable over multiple seasons. OAA has him as a really bad OF this year and I simply did not see that.
King Floch;
Then why did the O’s play him in LF this year and not RF when they were home?
Because he was a better option there than Santander or Mancini.
Not related but I’m not sure how many people understand your username. I love it.
Give Yadi a year and he will be back as the Cards pitching coach, Ala Dave Duncan
Not seeing it. He is a see it type and analytics is taking over more every year.
Urias/Vavra combo at 2B sounds good. I’d shop around a Santander/Westburg package for a decent SP
Orioles have logjams in the OF too with Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stowers, Cowser, and McKenna. My guess is Santander is traded.
An everyday lineup could look like this;
Mullins CF,
Rutschman C
Henderson 3B
Cowser / Hays LF
Mountcastle 1B
Westburg 2B
Hays / Stowers RF
Vavra DH
Mateo SS
And Vavra could slot in for any number of players on the field on a given day, rotating the DH spot.
The Orioles’ offense was pretty so-so this year so I’d much rather trade Hays (103 OPS+) than Santander (117 OPS+).
I get that, but Hays has a great arm and his offense in the first half was pretty good. People were saying he should be an all-star up until right before the break. Not sure what happened in the 2nd half. I wouldn’t want to sell low on Hays. Santander only has 2 years left and has more potential to bring back an arm than Hays does currently.
Hays only has one more year of control than Santander does, and I have a lot more faith in Santander’s bat going forward than Hays’s.
Austin is definitely the superior defender of the two though, no argument there.
Both Nola and Wheeler look gassed.
Based off 1 start for Wheeler?
No. Based on the number of earned runs both gave up in brief outings in Games 1 and 2.
Wheeler was throwing 97,98 hardly gassed. Just couldn’t keep it in the zone. NOLA was being squeezed by a umpire named stevie wonder.
Hadn’t considered how well the Orioles and Angels match up. We need infield and outfield depth and have a great pitching staff in AA.
Not sure how that helps the O’s next year. We aren’t the forever-rebuild Angels. We’re entering out contention window and while we will always welcome minor league depth, it’s time for the O’s FO to get guys that help the team win in 2023.
I guess it depends on how MLB ready the clubs think our AA guys are. I expect quite a few to matriculate to the MLB level this year. A couple, like Silseth, already have and guys like Ky Bush aren’t too far behind.
I would expect that with the Angels’ dire need of pitching, trading away young controllable pitching would not be too high on the priority list. While the Angels were in the top half of MLB in staff ERA in 2022, how much of that will go away in 2024 when Ohtani more than likely departs?
Unfortunately, the Halo’s probably need to hope for a massive rebound from Rendon and a couple of mid-tier FA hitter.
Not gonna lie – both times I’ve seen “The Opener” in the headline, I assume it’s a topic that’s going to be discussed in the article.