With yet another offseason deadline upon us, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball today:
1. The Non-Tender Deadline Is Today
This offseason’s non-tender deadline is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Typically, the focus of the n0n-tender deadline is arbitration level players, though it’s not unheard of for pre-arbitration players to be non-tendered as well. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections provide a comprehensive list of arbitration-eligible players across MLB and their projected 2023 salaries. Some teams have taken steps to address roster concerns ahead of the non-tender deadline, such as the Rays preemptively trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates. In some cases, a club and its player will come to an agreement prior to the non-tender deadline, as several already did yesterday (e.g. Cardinals and Chris Stratton). There’s plenty of teams with lots of decisions left to make as the deadline approaches, however, including the Brewers, who have a massive arbitration class of 18 players.
2. What Will The Dodgers Do With Bellinger?
Perhaps the most significant decision any team faces due to today’s deadline is that of the Dodgers on former MVP Cody Bellinger. Just a few years ago, he was widely considered one of the sport’s brightest stars, but back-to-back disastrous seasons at the plate, combined with Bellinger’s projected $18.1MM salary for 2023, could give the Dodgers pause about retaining him for next season. Bellinger still has value as a plus baserunner and excellent glove in the field, but his .193/.256/.355 slash line since the start of the 2021 season inspires little confidence in his bat going forward. As one of the game’s financial powerhouses, the Dodgers could conceivably be more comfortable taking a risk of this nature than most teams; a one-year, $18.1MM contract would not be quite as painful for them as it would be for others should Bellinger struggle again in 2023. If the Dodgers ultimately do non-tender Bellinger, his free agency will be a fascinating one to follow, as he would join a thin center field market behind top option Brandon Nimmo.
3. Lewis Trade Furthers Outfield Logjam In Arizona
Yesterday’s Opener discussed how Seattle’s recent trade for Teoscar Hernandez added to a logjam in their outfield and suggested they may look to trade from that newfound depth in the coming days. That came to pass rather quickly as the Mariners dealt 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks yesterday in exchange for Cooper Hummel. Lewis has struggled following his breakout 2020 campaign due to a number of significant injuries, but the acquisition of a player of his talents could certainly address Arizona’s desire for additional right-handed power in 2023. While Lewis does check a box on GM Mike Hazen’s offseason shopping list, the trade also adds to Arizona’s own outfield logjam. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho are likely set in center and right field, leaving Jake McCarthy, former top prospect Alek Thomas, Dominic Fletcher and Lewis (who could also spend ample time at DH) to vie for reps. Furthermore, if Lewis indeed occupies the DH slot for a significant portion of his playing time, perhaps no player is as impacted by Arizona’s newest acquisition than Seth Beer, who struggled in limited playing time in 2022 and could see his further opportunities limited further going forward. Carroll and Varsho are overwhelmingly unlikely to move, but the D-backs should still receive interest in the remainder of their outfield/DH options. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a deeper look at Arizona’s outfield logjam back in September.
Cody Bellinger makes JBJ a stud on rosters
“Cody Bellinger makes JBJ a stud on rosters”
You’re too familiar with Bellinger, because no way is that true. Past 2 years, 3 years, future revival possibilities. Every aspect JBJ is behind.
Most fans are going to want to give Bellinger a shot on their team even how bad he has been the last few years. We all have hope to get a cheap MVP candidate and Bellinger has the most talent to do it.
have you seen his swing? you can time it with a calendar
Dodgers can afford Bellinger. I’m curious: Does he have an option left? They could always stash him for a month or so to work on his bat, so long as there’s an option.
He’s had the last 2 off-season’s & spring training to work on his bat!
and a dislocated shoulder…
he hasn’t had a normal off season yet..Covid?Lockout?
wasnt able to work with training staff and get shoulder right!!
I believe he has five years of MLB service time, so can refuse an assignment.
Yes, but if he is tendered a contract and is awarded 18 million through arb, he would forfeit that money if he refused an outright assignment to AAA. He’d basically become a free agent. It’s pointless because the dodgers won’t tender him a contract worth 18 million just to stash him in the minors, and even if they did he’d be a fool to throw it away by refusing the assignment.
It doesn’t matter. Since Belli has 5 years of service time, he can refuse any optional assignment.
18 mil to send him to the minors. No team is that rich.
Rusney Castillo Red Sox
Yasmany Tomas Diamondbacks
Whyd you have to ruin my weekend!?
Even if the Dodgers are willing to overpay to keep Bellinger at that salary, they’d also need to factor in potential luxury tax costs and penalties. Either he accepts something lower, or they move on.
Looking at you Dom Smith
Bellinger has hit .235 or below each of the last 3 years and .210 last year. At this point 2019 is so far away it has to be considered an outlier. When I see Bellinger bat, he is just another Joey Gallo. If the Dodgers don’t cut him loose, it’s purely for sentiment.
Aside of last season, I’d rather have Gallo because he at least draws walks & gets on base.
2019, you mean the year of the juiced ball?
I wouldn’t say outlier season so much as injuries took a toll, then there may have been some mental hurdles he couldn’t overcome upon struggling after recovering.
$ 5-7 Million tops is what Cody’s worth. He is a notch below Kiermeier right now.
Even with a payroll like that of the Dodgers, I can’t see them wanting to spend $18 million for a season of Bellinger. Unless they do that, and try to flip him to a team willing to pay some of that money in return for a lower prospect, so they can get something for him. Otherwise, cut him loose. A team (could even be the Dodgers) will offer him a “prove to me you’re out of this slump” one year contract for half of that, with a team option for a second year. At this point, Bellinger may have to take it. But to his benefit, he’s still young, he’ll only be 28 by next season’s end. He has time to turn this around.
D-Bags setting up a potential by adding surplus?
Next move: hiring Dr. Frankenstein as their sports physician to make a complete player.
Angels need a left fielder. Wonder if there’s a match.
Would love to bring Dom over. He’s a cool guy. A little more outgoing than David (which isn’t hard).
I would absolutely love to see Bellinger in LF for the Angels. He has a better chance of righting his ship than Adell has of launching his.
With the leg and now back issues Trout has had over the past few seasons. I would move Trout to LF and put Bellinger in CF. Instantly makes the outfield defense better. I’m not going to give up on Adell yet. JD Martinez took 4 years to figure it out. Justin Turner same thing.
Agreed. I wanted Marsh in center and Trout in left last year at this time.
You are not going to play Bellinger in left field. His main remaining value is being a plus center fielder, center or right field or don’t waste money on him. Angels could sign Will Myers for half the cost of Bellinger and have a better bay for LF.
Exactly. The closer we get to the tender deadline the weirder the scenarios become. I still believe the most likely scenario is the Dodgers offer him two years for a little more than he’d get in arbitration for the next one. The team keeps making noises about how they still believe in him.
I wouldn’t consider that Arizona outfield to be a ‘logjam’, per se. It’s more of a situation where they have a couple probabilities (cf and rf), and 3 or 4 possibilities for LF and DH. A logjam implies to me that they have too many good, somewhat proven guys to fit into the spots. I think what Arizona is doing is smart, bring in a bunch of young options and let them fight it out.
It’s a logjam in the sense that there are 5+ guys who you would theoretically want to play everyday with only about 3 spots available for them.
I agree that they’re not all proven and some of these guys are young so we don’t know exactly what type of player they will be over the long haul, but based on the initial returns on these guys (i.e. Jake McCarthy 2.4bWAR in 321AB last year, Alek Thomas 1.4bWAR in 381AB) these are guys who should be getting everyday playtime and like 500+AB in order to see if they can establish themselves as solid MLB regulars.
So overall I agree with you that it would be inaccurate to say that AZ has a surplus of proven OF talent, but they still have a lot of guys options that they need to find play time for so it might make sense to move one of the lefties to create a little space.
“Logjam” doesn’t refer to the number of OF, but rather the fact that all 4 of the “original” (Carroll, Varsho, Thomas and McCarthy are left handed hitters and CFers. Plus, the depth players in the minors are also left handed hitting and CF (the Dominics— Dominic Fletcher and Dominic Canzone.).
The “problem” is not so much a playing time issue, instead it refers to the fact that the Dbacks lineup against left handed pitchers is woefully weak. Last season, in September other teams exploited this team weakness and ran out every left handed starter and left handed reliever on their rosters against the Dbacks right handed lineup with great success. It was a big part of the reason the Dbacks faltered in September/October.
So the Dbacks traded for Lewis and are in the market for another right handed OF and a right handed 3b preferably with power.
Sorry Scott, you should have just ‘liked’ CNichols comment and called it a day. I’m not sure I agree with him, but at least he knows what logjam means.
What u described is an unbalanced lineup, preponderance of one sided hitters, but not a logjam.
Anyway…
Big Hurt,
I was redefining/correcting the perceived “problem” the Dbacks are trying to address this off-season. Logjam refers to a good problem, i.e. too many good players at one position. The Dbacks could work that out by having 3 OF and a DH and there is no logjam issue with getting all players playing time. That’s not the Dbacks problem. The problem is that the team is vulnerable to left handed pitching because they didn’t have right handed hitting OF (that were any good) so they forced rookie left handed hitters to face major league left handed pitching. There is plenty of talent in those rookies to eventually hit against same sided pitching, but they hurried them through the minors so fast, they hadn’t made those adjustments yet. To “protect” them somewhat the Dbacks used right handers Luplow and Garrett, who both became automatic outs by September/October.
The lack of good right handed hitters is the problem and part of the solution is to trade from this strength area.
Cool, I hear you, makes sense.
Bellinger seems like a Rangers type of trade candidate
I don’t see the Rangers paying Bellinger $18 mill AND giving away prospects.
Wasnt bellinger injured during a ws celebration? elbow?
been injured off / on last two years.
Ask jed hoyers advice on kyle schwarber.
7/23/21 Hamstring
6/12/21 Hamstring
4/5/21 Calf
9/2/20 Lat strain
You missed the dislocated shoulder and the fractured ankle.
Fractured ankle was actually his fibula(calf) injury on 4-5-2021. It was thought to be a calf injury however latter test showed a hairline fracture to his fibula not ankle. His dislocated shoulder happened on game 7 of the 2020 WS. That injury had a led into the offseason which only have a 10-week recovery time. The fibula fracture is what extended his absence to the 2021 season hence for the reason i left the shoulder injury off.
He dislocated the shoulder in Game 7 of the NLCS. It was the recurrence of a previous injury. He also fractured a rib late in the 2021 season. So let’s just say he’s had more than his share of hurt, and maybe this is why the team hasn’t given up on him.
Enrique Hernandez did a shoulder bump with Belli.
Was never the same after that shoulder injury. His swing is slower and more loopy which causes bad contact.
I think his swing is slower from all the pot he smokes.
That is a common rumor that no one has proved. Whether he uses or not, I don’t think it is the reason for his hitting demise. I think the end of the juiced ball and injuries changed his approach. He can work his way further back but will never be the 2919 hitter again, but he could be good enough to stay in the show. Time for Dodgers to cut bait and maybe that will motivate him in a new squad.
It’s not a rumor. He has giving many interviews saying he regularly partakes but isn’t high while playing.
Please supply linkage to one of these supposedly many interviews.
Smokin’ trees and whiffing on strike three.
I’d bet that Belli is non-tendered. Even for the Dodgers, that’s a lot of money for a guy who’s basically Jason Heyward at this point. Yes, there’s the potential for a return to being an above-average bat, but how likely is it? Some team will give him $12-$14M on a prove-it contract and I hope he performs well for them, but the Dodgers have enough OF and more pressing needs to which they could apply that money.
The Dodger would be better served signed Heyward for the league min and putting him in CF.
But the best defensive OF ever?
Farhan will grab Bellinger if he’s able…
Does the excuse making finally end for Bellinger today? That clubhouse would probably be thrilled that they don’t have to answer the same questions over and over everyday about Bellinger’s poor performance. Bellinger probably wants to stay with the Dodgers at almost any cost, maybe a non-tender and resign at a far far lower k. Getting kicked to the curb might be the spark he needs.
Redsox please
Bellinger is worth another shot somewhere.
Red Sox can sign Bellinger and Heyward and play them with JBJ for the worst hitting outfield since I have followed baseball, eg, since early 70s.
But the best defensive OF ever?
There was a lot going on in 2019. Let’s just leave it at that.
Why would they tender him a contract, if they want him they could non-tender and re-sign cheaper, no one else is going to pay him $18M and I doubt anyone gives him a multi-year.
I think Marlins will offer Bellinger around two years 24 million.
I hope they don’t. Even though I like Belli, he does not worth $12 M a year. Moreover, Kim Ng has stressed the approach of not spending much money this offseason and the Fish should get improvements via trade.
I bet the Marlins are considering trading for Bellinger, should the Dodgers send some money back to Miami in any case.
Manny—–before yesterday Belli was going to one of two teams (assuming he gets non-tendered)—-the Diamondbacks or the Marlins. I think the acquisition of Lewis greatly diminishes the chance of him staying “home” in Arizona.
You are dead on about Miami, but i think it will be a one year deal.
Mike127,
The Dbacks are NOT signing Bellinger. They already have 6 left handed hitting CF. On what planet would they spend money on a 7th?
I know he has a connection to AZ, but unless the Dbacks trade at least 3 of their existing left handed hitting CF, they are Not signing another.
Bellinger to Colorado for 1 year. They need a good defensive outfielder and he can pop 30+ HR there.
I could see that happening. He’d probably get the average up into the .240 range with that big outfield too..
As a Dodger fan, I can say, “You don’t want to do that.”
The frustration of watching Bellinger air it out every swing and make little adjustments to just make contact can bring an orphan to tears. He did slightly better in the last half of the 2022, but he’s still a big time swinger.
Now, can you imagine with someone like that getting to Coors field and trying to take advantage of the thin air so he he can get his power numbers up? He’ll be back at square one, especially with the amount of times he seems to tinker with his swing.
Lewis at this point is a DH more than an Outfielder so he really doesn’t “further Outfield logjam in Arizona”. Even if he does play the OF for the D’Backs all of the other Outfielders are LH so we knew they would have to add a RH hitter to the mix
Lewis furthers the OF logjam because one of the other outfielders could otherwise slot at DH.
Marlins and D Backs need to trade –
Something like McCarthy for a controllable starter such as Braxton Garrett and maybe a prospect like Nasim Nunez
Agree they are ideal trade partners but McCarthy does not get you Braxton AND a decent prospect, but you have the right idea for both teams
You’re not getting Braxton for McCarthy.
Better trade would be McCarthy for Pablo Lopez and the Marlins Closer.
Otherwise, Marlins aren’t getting McCarthy, or Thomas, or Varsho or Carroll.
Dbacks might trade Dominic Fletcher for Braxton Garrett, but they won’t get one of the original 4.
I would take a chance on Bellinger for one season for the Detroit Tigers. He could shift over to first base while Torkelson moves over to third base. This would solve the Jeimer Candelario issue.
Candelario has shown some promise in the past but inconsistencies have caught up with him.
Its time to try new things.
I think with the Tigers revamped hitting department, Bellinger might get back on track.
why would you play an extremely above average center fielder at first base?
You are getting ahead of yourself there. Torkelson dabbled at 3B. Tigers gave up on that pretty quickly. He really doesn’t play there. Candelario is still with the team. If he’s tendered a contract, he will be the 3B. He’s only one year removed from leading the AL in doubles. Not a whole lot of choices if they cut him.
Why havent the Jays traded for one of the 6 left handed outfielders on the Diamondbacks yet?
Because zona thinks they have 6 Trouts and want too much for them would be my guess
Jaysfan1981,
Dbacks don’t think they are all Trouts, although Trout does train with Varsho!
Dbacks Jake McCarthy was 4th in this year’s Rookie of the Year voting.
Dbacks Alek Thomas and Daulton Varsho were both Gold Glove finalists.
Dbacks Corbin Carroll was the #3 Top 100 Prospect.
Daulton Varsho hit 25 HR this year.
If this was the caliber of your prospects, would you give them away for peanuts?
Nobody on the Dbacks or in their fan base is saying they are sure fire Hall of Famers…Yet. But don’t pretend that you are grossly underrating all 4 of them.
Bellinger is perfect for the Jays!…..
They lead the league in signing defensive CF’s because they overpaid Springer to play CF and he can’t play CF anymore. They can DFA him by early June and sign another CF that can’t hit. Billy Hamilton hasn’t played there yet.
Let’s not kid ourselves. There will be a long line of suitors, Dodgers included, if he’s non-tendered. Change of scenery might be best for him, but leaving LA will be difficult.
They’ll be a line, but it will be a $7M line, not a $17M line. As Jockstrap mentions above, if you want to gamble, someone like Gallo is probably a similar gamble, at a lesser cost.
As a RS fan, I like gambling on comebacks, but Gallo has a recency advantage. His core stats with LAD (7 HRs in 117 AB, with a 57/16 K/W) weren’t half-bad. At worst, he is probably a good dominant-side platoon partner.
Bellinger to the Yankees we’ll give you Hicks …he would thrive in that short porch
In order to “thrive” with the short porch, he needs to make consistent, solid contact. He has immense trouble doing that.
There’s a log jam of fringe MLB talent in Arizona.
If we exclude Seth Beer and Kyle Lewis, the other 5 are “above average”.
Bellinger to the Phillies what do you think Von Purple Hayes?
Hmm, the guy who eclipsed Mike Piazza’s record for fastest Dodger to hit his first 100 career home runs ever has an immediate decline in his power and production that directly aligns with his first shoulder dislocation, and MLBTR doesn’t think it’s relevant to mention even as a throwaway comment? Really? Tracks directly to mid 2019. But nah, why would anyone mention that?
And the number of idiots on the internet ready to proclaim a 27 year old with more natural talent and potential in his left pinky than any of you have shown at your best moment, is honestly appalling
To be clear, it’s the ones celebrating his downfall- and there’s plenty of you- that I’m talking about
You make a righteous point. Context is key, but it is often the thing left completely out of the discussion. The team says they believe in the guy and his talent. No reason at all for them to say if they don’t believe it.
ONE year wonder! He shows ZERO signs of fixing that AWFUL swing! Time to move on, Outman can put up his numbers at a fraction of the cost!
One year wonder? He won the ROY, then an MVP, then broke a Dodger franchise HR record held by Piazza for fastest to 100 HRs
So, no
Proclaim as…what??? Use the English language much?
So you have nothing of substance to say or argue, so you gotta harp on my phone deleting a couple of words that I didn’t catch while I got ready for work?
Big tough guy over here
I’d love to see the Pirates take a shot at Bellinger and Gallo both on 1 year prove it deals.
Fits their motive of being cheap, but also gives players the chance to show up and re-enter in 2024.
Both have good gloves and can slug. Put Gallo, Bellinger, Cruz, Andujar, and Reynolds together and you can probably slam your way into some wins despite the pitching staff not being there.
Then mid season if any of them are hitting well the Pirates can trade them or offer them QOs for 2024.
I just verified that it wouldn’t be my money the Dodgers would be spending on Bellinger. I say keep him. Enjoy his defense & speed and hope you get something from his bat.
Bellinger $14M/1yr tons of incentives.I think he takes it
He would only be a partial fit for the Phillies but I bet Kevin Long could fix Bellinger.
My prediction:
2/30-34.
That is based on a few things.
(1) I do think the Dodgers still buy into his underlying talent – way too much so. And, I don’t think they just want to walk away without getting something.
(2) Cody/Boras have been told he will be non-tendered unless something else can be worked out.
(3) Cody would like to remain a Dodger.
(4) There are not a lot of CF options readily available. I don’t think the Dodgers are in on Nimmo at his price. They are not going to just give CF – even as a platoon – to Outman. And even a guy like Keirmaier is going to get more than you want to pay him and maybe more than one year.
Personally, I would not commit to more than one guaranteed year and I’d probably insist on an option year to even do that – I mean, just in case by some miracle he starts to figure it out – which he probably won’t.
Bottom line: I predict Dodgers announce a two year deal today at a lower AAV.
P.S. And I would not commit to that one year deal at more than 12 million MAX.
Belli’s had THREE years to fix his swing! Ba-bye dude!
After reading all these crazy salary proposals, I keep thinking what the Rays and Guardians could do with an extra $12-14m in payroll…..
For sure they could build the rest of a superior bullpen if they had a closer under contract.
Time to move on from Bellinger.
Aside from Mookie, the outfield looks to be a rotation of platoon/utility/rookies players.
CT3-Trayce-Outman-Vargas-Pages or whoever else AF seems content on adding.
I hope they don’t move Mookie to 2nd base. His sr and instincts are too valuable in RF.