As MLB’s awards season draws to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. MVP Results Announced Tonight
The final award announcements for the 2022-23 season are coming tonight, with the AL and NL Most Valuable Player awards being announced at 5:00 PM CT. The finalists in the AL are Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez, while the NL finalists are Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Manny Machado. The AL race this year was a particularly remarkable one, with historic seasons pitted against each other; Ohtani arguably improved on his 2021 AL MVP campaign this year, while Judge delivered perhaps the best offensive season since the days of Barry Bonds. Alvarez, for his part, put up rate numbers that would be more strongly in the mix in just about any other year. Despite truly special seasons from all three finalists in the AL, though, Judge appears to be the favorite after he set a new AL home run record. Over in the NL, Goldschmidt flirted with the Triple Crown at one point, but his season finished on a low note, as he slashed just .245/.333/.383 after the calendar flipped to September. That may have slightly opened the door for Arenado and Machado, who posted extremely similar profiles to one another in 2022. Machado’s .298/.366/.531 season line is nearly indistinguishable from Arenado’s line of .293/.358/.533.
2. How The Teoscar Trade Changes The Market
Yesterday saw the Mariners and the Blue Jays work out a trade to send Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle, potentially shaking up the outfield market in a significant way. With Hernandez no longer penciled into right field every day, the Blue Jays are now even more likely to pursue outfield help, with George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. their only regular outfielders as things stand. Both Cavan Biggio and Whit Merrifield saw time in the outfield last year, but with the Blue Jays already rumored to be in the market for another outfielder even before yesterday’s trade, they’ll likely only be more aggressive in their pursuit as the offseason progresses. The other side of the trade has implications for the market as well, as Seattle is now even more deeper in outfield options. Hernandez will likely slot into right field with Julio Rodriguez in center and Jesse Winker (assuming he himself isn’t traded) in left, but the Mariners have Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, and Sam Haggerty further down the depth chart, to say nothing of prospects Cade Marlowe and Zach DeLoach, who could be ready for big league action sometime next year. Needless to say, Seattle’s glut of outfielders could draw trade interest, and the addition of Hernandez makes it all the likelier that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will deal from that depth.
3. Talking Top 50 with Rob Bradford
MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents list and predictions dropped last week, and entries for our Free Agent Prediction contest were due last night — but that doesn’t mean all things Top 50-related are in the rearview mirror just yet. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams joined Rob Bradford of Audacy Sports and WEEI on the “Baseball Isn’t Boring” podcast to discuss the Top 50 list and the free-agent class at large. You can listen to their appearance here, and you can follow Baseball Isn’t Boring and follow Rob on Twitter.
Goldy. OPS+ of 180 vs. Machado at 159 and Arenado at 154.
I can’t believe Machado will only be 30 next season.
He turns 31 in July.
Oh!
Which means it’s his age 30 season.
Thank you, For Love of the Game.
In fairness to Goldy, I don’t think the article above should’ve listed only his September numbers while omitting his season numbers: .317/.404/.578/.981
Fink
I agree it is almost like saying Dodgers ended regular season losing 3 out 4 without mentioning they started 110-48. Plus part of when Goldie fizzled was after they locked up division
Goldie is MVP.
Kyle Lewis could be a good get, I know he has been injured but talent is there.
I really think Reds should try to get Winker back. One team top 40 prospect should do it. They are not going to spend much but 8.5 million for Winker could fit. Cheaper than Mike Minor was!
Bring back Tucker as the backup catcher too. After his season this year, he should be a pretty cheap signing.
And Cueto
Ohtani for AL
Tie-breaker goes to player on team in playoff race, Judge gets my vote and Ohtani is a strong second
no. judge had higher production. he wins. and i am an angels fan.
Just have a (bad) feeling that we will see Mitch Haniger get a nice deal from another team in the coming days. I hope we can go into the season with the OF of Teoscar/Julio/Hanny but it’s probably not a realistic possibility?
I hope I’m wrong. But yeah, i could see NY or BOS or LAD giving him a nice 2 year $40 million deal, a slight overpay somewhere in there to secure his high upside.
Honestly, Haniger fits perfectly with the Mets focus on high character players, and I’ve wanted the Mets to trade for him. Now that it’s just a check, I could definitely see the Mets signing Haniger. They could use a lefty backup CF then….
I think that’s where he goes. Assuming Little Nimo is gone. You want Canha in left. Mitch plays a nice RF, I haven’t looked at his metrics but I think it’s widely accepted within the game that he is a plus RF.
If you go by OAA, it varies. This past year, he was +2. In 2021, he was -7. He’s -6 for his career. So he likely won’t kill you out there and he has a strong arm, but he’s not going to contend for any GG’s, either.
The acquisition of Hernandez probably closes the door on Haniger returning to Seattle unless he is willing to take a very team friendly deal to come back.
The Mariners have OF depth to spare so bringing back Haniger will not be a priority so they likely turn their attention to the SS market and whatever else DiPoto is looking for
Oh yeah he will. Dude can hit, and that’s valuable to just about everyone in the universal DH world. Bump a poor fielding corner OF to DH, insert MItch, and profit. He’s gone unless the M’s open up the checkbook.
2/40 would be enormous for a guy who didn’t receive the QO and missed most of last season. I would be surprised if he got that kind of dough.
Easy to see him getting a deal with incentives and a vesting option, or a 3-year deal in the 24-36m range.
I absolutely agree that 2/40 is more like the ceiling. I agree that your proposal is much more reasonable and thus you are probably right. But I have seen these teams spend frivolous money on lesser guys and I guess that’s probably why I’m more inclined to assume the worst as a Mariner fan.
See, if he stays in that range you are proposing I actually think there’s a good chance we retain him. Where there’s no chance we retain him, is where one of the big spenders goes Stallone over the top of us
At this point Haniger is Steven Souza with more potential upside. I think it will be interesting to see what kind of deals he and Wil Myers get on the open market
Ooof. Souza never had a 39 110 100 season. Mitch has been that guy when healthy. Always productive, always above reproach when it comes to preparation and dedication. I think you’re selling him a bit too low while I (admittedly) might be selling a bit too high.
To be fair they have the same amount of 30 HR seasons (1) in their careers. I may be selling Mitch short but the point is his ability (or lack thereof) to stay on the field is a serious detractor, especially when considering the amount of money being mentioned. That said, we know Bloom likes Haniger and while i don’t see him giving Mitch $20 million for one season i can see the Red Sox pushing to sign him and me having to hope he stays healthy enough to be a productive integral part of the lineup
We will see man. I really hope we hang on to him. He is beloved around here
theplayerstribune.com/posts/dear-mariners-fans-01f…
funny because I thought Haniger to the Jays made sense after the trade. would make sense for the Jays to consider having an OF of Gurriel, Haniger (could thrive in that division), Springer and ideally Nimmo. have Nimmo play centre and Springer in RF with Haniger filling in 1-2/5 days to give Springer some DH time. I know they like Kirk at DH when Jansen is catching but think a platoon for Springer as OF/DH is the best option with his injury history.
I’m totally cool with Haniger going elsewhere. I would love us to sign Benintendi (to play LF) who would provide a stable #2 left handed hitter in the lineup. Beni will also upgrade the outfield defense and overall team speed.
Honestly, the AL MVP should be the Guardians team as a whole. Team wasn’t expected to do much this year and made it to the LDS
Not into rewarding teams with low expectations. More proper to reward teams with high expectations who follow through with the results. More impressed by the Astros accomplishment.
I’d rather reward an underperforming team actually make it to the playoffs than the team that was expected to win the WS actually win it.
It is ok to like both apples and oranges
Well, I’d be happy if they announced that both Judge & Ohtani were AL MVPs. Both had amazing years.
I think Freddie Freeman had a just as good, if not better, season than Goldschmidt. And I say this as one of the biggest Dodgers haters around
Freeman was terrific but Goldy outslugged him by a big amount and played in an inferior lineup.
So you are punishing Freeman because his teammates were good and yet Goldy had another MVP finalist batting immediately after him? Freeman may have been outslugged, but he outpaced Goldy in hits, stolen bases, and doubles. I’m not saying Goldschmidt had a bad year by any means, but I just think Freeman was better.
Which is exactly why the mvp should be Machado’s. His lineup was weaker than both most of the season and even when adding one of the games better hitters, who underperformed he still kept leading his team. Without Arenado or Goldy they can still make the playoffs, without Freeman, they still make the playoffs, without Machado the Padres are nowhere close to the playoffs.
Freeman had less power than Goldie
Goldie hit fewer homers than Christian Walker. The award is not for most powerful player.
It’s the 14 more homers, 15 more RBI in 57 less plate appearances that cause the tremendous disparity
Judge & Arenado.
Seattle has to be looking for an experienced LHH for the outfield as well. It’s easy to look at the collection of LHHs on the 40 and say they have enough, but none of them have done enough to warrant a regular role, IMO. I could see them giving Kelenic a couple of months to try to establish himself if they fail to sign/acquire a more established option, but surely that’s not plan A, B, or even C.
It’s easy to see them trade from that surplus of young outfielders, including Lewis, too address a need, such as a reliever, but I still think free agency is more likely to provide them with an outfielder and middle infielder.
Things rarely go as planned, though, and it’s still really early. They did well getting Teoscar.. More to come, for sure.
Reds and Toronto both need outfielders. That may say a lot about sea young stock. That being said – if I was rebuilding – I like all 3 young unproven former top prospects to take a chance on. Sometimes those guys come around when they get into their late 20s
If Judge does not win MVP, it will be a disgrace.
Judge is a lock. It may not be unanimous, although it should be, but he’ll win it easily.
Even with a significant fWAR disparity, I don’t think it’ll be unanimous. We’ve just never seen a player like Ohtani. Even Ruth wasn’t a feared hitter and pitcher in the same year. While I very much expect Judge to win, I think at least a couple voters will look at the degree of difficulty in doing both the pitcher and OF roles very well and award him a 1st place vote.
I’ll be honest, I’m not sold on the “degree of difficulty” argument. Just because baseball has historically been a specialized field doesn’t mean there haven’t been players who could excel at both. The main reason elite hitters sometimes move away from pitching is not because they can’t handle the task of being a productive hitter and a productive pitcher…it’s more because one can’t handle the arm stress of being a pitcher and a regular position player.
Really should be Goldschmidt and Judge. I don’t really think it’s much of a debate either.
For the no debate comment, agree on the AL, disagree for the NL. I could see Arenado winning it, but I lean toward Goldy.
Would be a shame to give it to Arenado (who I am a fan of) who even admits that Goldy is the better player. Goldschmidt carried the team offensively, especially when Arenado was cold for long stretches. Goldschmidt was superior offensively and defensively by a wide margin. Arenado had the better season defensively, but not by so much that it outweighs the other factors I listed.
Judge is going to win it because he led his team all season and obviously broke the AL home run record. But Ohtani arguably had the best season of all time.
It would be as if Pat Mahomes finished the year with 45 touchdowns on offense and 10 sacks and 6 picks on defense. No one does this!! We’ve gotten a bit use to it, but it’s just so unheard of he probably deserves the award every year if he somehow keeps this up.
Dipoto on the radio in Seattle now. I’ll report anything interesting
Report: coy on 2b, they softballed him with no Haniger questions. Nothing good. Basically just sucked him off over the Teo trade
I could see Arenado getting the MVP instead of Goldschmidt if the voters relied on WAR, which weights dubious fielding metrics among the factors in the Fangraphs and B-Ref formulas. I’d vote for Goldy anyway.
Tough call but I would lean Goldy as well. He is the anchor, Arry is the chain. Goldy is just on another level of mastery at the plate. So incredibly imposing.
His WAR is only a slight lead, which is largely due to it being bias towards 3B as a position. Goldy is far ahead of him in virtually every offensive category.
Remember when everyone ripped the “cano” trade. Their ignorance not realizing the trade was all for Diaz. And how can’t miss kelenic should never have been traded and Diaz is a bust. Funny how time changes everything.
Meh. Dunn helped us get Geno. Bruce got us a prospect with consistent power who will most likely get a look this year. Jer Bear is 23 with all the physical talent he needs, I wouldn’t call him a bust quite yet. The bullpen is doing pretty ok without Diaz. I agree maybe the robbery talk was overblown but the Ms still got a nice haul at this point and if Kelenic ever becomes a single digit plus WAR guy the robbery talk comes back into play
Their ignorance not realizing the trade was all for Diaz.
===========================
What? All 330,000,000 people in this country knew they were trading for Diaz.
But it is still a losing trade. Even if Kelenic never plays again, the NYMs paid about $100M for Diaz & Cano, and only got three good seasons out of Diaz. And it is more like one great season and three mediocre seasons. On his first three years, he combined for a 9-14, 4.00 ERA, and a 64/16 S/BS.
And that doesn’t even include the fact that the NYMs got lucky when the ped-head got caught again.
The money wasted on Cano was plenty to get a FA closer. The final chapter on Kelenic is still unwritten but I see it more like Mets dodged a bullet
This trade won’t be able to be accurately graded until we see how Diaz and Kelenic both perform over the next few seasons. If Diaz forces the Mets to give him this giant contract after 1 good season and then regresses back to his mediocre productivity from the previous 2 seasons then it’s an even bigger loss for the Mets. JK still has plenty of time to improve and show he is the top prospect everybody thought he was. Still too early to tell.
Neither one should be unanimous, but I have a hard time seeing anyone but Judge winning in the AL. In the NL, much tighter, but I predict Goldy over Arenado.
Goldschmidt in NL.
Ohtani should get the mvp but it will be judge since too many new dork writers and yankees went to the playoffs, angles didnt.
Right because a Yankee always wins the award
This is why baseball needs a separate award for the best offensive player, and a separate award for MVP. I’d rather have Ohtani than Judge, but it is completely reasonable to consider a player’s (V)alue to his team.
Goldy because RBIs and America’s First Baseman refused to play in godless Canada.
I think it’s difficult to compare anyone to Ohtani. Who else can step on the field and perform at an elite level while on the mound and at the plate? If you had to choose, and you could only pick one, would you want Judge or Ohtani on your team?
MLB need a different award for Shohei Ohtani. He’s providing much more value to a team than the MVP voting. Top of the rotation starter and elite hitter. He was 45% better than league average as a hitter and 72% better than league average as a pitcher. That’s like having two stars on your team for the price of one.