As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Judge To Meet With Giants
Later today, top free agent Aaron Judge will meet with Giants brass in San Francisco. This marks the first meeting Judge has been reported to be taking with a team besides the Yankees, who made Judge a new offer last week. Rumors have long swirled that the Giants would be aggressive with their financial might this offseason, and team officials have done little to dissuade that thinking with their public comments. Their pursuit of Judge, the offseason’s premier free agent who grew up a Giants fan in the area, is no surprise. In addition to the Yankees, the Giants are likely to face competition for Judge from their divisional rival Dodgers, whose interest in Judge has been reported occasionally throughout the offseason thus far.
2. Cody Bellinger’s Market Developing
Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger has found a fairly strong market for himself due to this offseason’s dearth of available center fielders. He’s fielded calls from teams since the hour after his non-tender, and while those conversations have supposedly included multi-year interest, his preference is toward a one-year pact. The Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams who have been connected to Bellinger, and it seems likely plenty more will arise over the course of his free agency. Beyond Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier (who’s recovering from hip surgery) and top free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo, there aren’t many viable regulars on this year’s free-agent market.
3. Offseason Outlooks Set To Wrap Up
The Offseason Outlook series is one of MLBTR’s biggest offseason projects, and after covering the Giants and the Phillies yesterday, the series will wrap with coverage of the Astros later today. While that will mark the end of Offseason Outlook posts for the year, be sure to keep an eye out for the team-focused Offseason Outlook chats, which will also be completed shortly. In addition to the Astros, A’s and Rangers fans can look forward to an Offseason Chat over the next couple days. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a Rangers-specific chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit an early question here and also use that link to join the chat once it’s underway (and to read the transcript once it’s completed). Fans of other teams can check out previous Offseason Outlook posts and team-specific chats here.
Bellinger is going to regret turning down those multiyear offers (if they actually exist).
Right!
I doubt that he has made lots of money, and if he signs a multi year contract (which is not even clear if one will be offered) he could be stuck in a place he might not like such as Reds etc. He wants options, and by asking only for one year he will get more looks. Its smart.
He was a Super 2 guy who made it through 3 years of arbitration with an MVP under his belt. He’s made a pretty decent chunk of change already, and he’s unlikely to suddenly rediscover his MVP form and secure a massive multi-year contract.
Pretty clear that Bellinger believes he can go through with what would have been his final pre-free agency year and use it as a platform year, not just a pillow contract or a “good faith” contract that secures his finances a little more with something rather than nothing (say, 2 years/$18M w/ a $2M buyout on a $28M club option or a 2 year/$52M club option with a bunch of escalators that could take it to 4 years/$80M or something) and instead he’ll bank on himself, take a 1 year deal straight up, worth less than whatever he was technically due to earn in his last year of arbitration, and set himself for to maybe get 6 years/$150M or something like that.
I understand that that is his angle, I just don’t see him suddenly returning to his pre-surgery form if he hasn’t after 2 full seasons of regular playing time, and with another poor year like his last two, there most likely won’t be any multi-year interest at that point.
I am just curious if he will ever get out of his funk. Last year he was relatively healthy. He would seem locked in for two or three games then look lost at the plate. I am glad that the Dodgers benched him at times, however wonder if it is really his shoulder issues or was he a three year flash in the pan. He seemed to have too much talent to stink like this. Hope he can resurrect his career.
If the multi year offers exist the must be structured with team or mutual options. Or perhaps they are at 4th outfielder salary.
Methinks Boras is using his errand boy to create a market here.
Of course they will be 4th OF salary. Well, what is 4th OF salary? I think $8M Is reasonable for Bellinger as a 4th OF on a contender. Also my guess is it will be a 2 year deal with an opt out, so Bellinger/Boras will get the best of both worlds.
Ideally for them. As a team I’d want a mutual option.
Has a mutual option ever been exercised by both sides? Usually when one side likes the option, the other side doesn’t.
Mutual options are never picked up by both sides. But they do protect both sides.
If he’s bad, the team can get out of the second year.
If he’s good, he’ll decline his side.
They are every once in a while. Sometimes the option is right at the sweet spot so both sides like it.
Right, so why even have it? Mutual options are meaningless.
If I’m a winning now team I’d rather bet on Bellinger at 15M for one year deal than Judge for $300M / 8 years deal.
Well you wont win now with that deal, but you could win later if you spend the Judge money on someone else down the line?
Depends on who is offering the 8 year $300 million. If its the Dodgers think its worth it as you are not solely reliant on Judge being everything for team. If its like the Giants it might be riskier as the Giants are not filled with other star like players.
Bellinger must be really confident in a rebound to turn down those offers. There’s probably a better chance he’s a permanent fourth outfielder going forward than there is he reclaims his MVP form.
I think regardless of batting average and on base, most teams would be interested in a plus defensive center fielder who hits 20 home runs, 30 doubles and is a plus base runner.
I also think Bellinger believes, rightfully so, that with the shift going away, worst case, he can add some points to his batting average.
One would think, if you’re getting some good luck hits, you’ll press a little less and get back to taking walks. The biggest knock for Bellinger isn’t the low batting average it’s the low on base when he was rocking a very healthy walk rate earlier in his career.
And honestly, I wouldn’t mind the Angels taking that risk if they add a legit bat at catcher and a decent utility type.
I’ve wanted to move Trout to a corner since the beginning of last year to save wear and tear on him.
Add in the fact that outside of Ohtani we don’t have many high K pitchers so good defense is needed here.
I have faith in Bell! Its a lottery ticket either way so hes smart to take the 1yr.
Can someone give Bellinger too much money soon so we can stop hearing about a defense first non-tendered center fielder
The bidding war between the Giants, Dodgers and Yankees will be fun to watch. Door number one had 7 years and $213M, door number two has the new Yankee offer, guessing closer to $300M, what will be behind door number 3? Will it be a 10 year $400 million deal? It will be a lot closer to 10/400 than the 7/213 served up in Spring Training.
For sure! The money’s going to be there on either side of the coast. It’s just a matter if he wants back home, back west.
To me I would want out of that NY media fishbowl. I would hate to be part of that constant dumb question, and following me everywhere type of media.
I would like to see the Cardinals sign Bellinger and trade Carlson to get a catcher. Bellinger is a better LH hitter, even last year, with higher upside. Matt Holliday could work with him on his hitting. It’s a wash on the CF for the Cardinals and they gain a much needed catcher
Why would you give up anybody when you can just sign christian vazquez in free agency? Hes a perfect fit for cards. He calls a great game. Good framer. Throws out ppl at a good clip. Can hit .260 with decent power. Extremely underrated player. Plus he wont cost you a ton.
Vasquez is the guy I want most right now. And I’m sure I’m not alone.
Great player, no QO, probably available on a 2 year deal (although I think the bidding nets him a 3 year deal).
Because the cardinals need to get younger and not bring in a 32 year old catcher. And they have an opportunity to trade with Toronto for a young catch they can keep for way longer than Vazquez.
Guest678: Terrible take. Enough said. A better take would be to sign Bellinger for a 1 yr deal and move Carlson to right field until Jordan Walker is ready at mid season.
To each their own. Bellinger is a better player then Carlson, even with down numbers. Bellingers ceiling is also way higher than Carlson’s and he give more defensive flexibility. Plus add a young catcher, it’s an obviously huge upgrade for the Cardinals. I guess you just believe in the almighty scouting eye of John Mozalak rather then believe what the numbers show and the actual performance on the field. Carlson isn’t even the best center fielder on the 26 man roster. That is O’Niel who has been working on cardio and agility training this offseason to take over center field (unless Bellinger is there of course) and be able to last the season of the stress that comes with it.
Obviously it would have to Carlson plus a highly ranked pitcher and something else, or the Jays would just sign Bellinger. But the Cardinals have plenty of prospects they have proven they will never be able to develop.
Bellinger would be a great addition for any team. He is still young, he has the tools, he has the experience, he is a winner and he has the motivation to show everyone his real value.
Mr Boras is this you??
You seem to think the only barrier to more production is motivation. If so, then wouldn’t he have been motivated in 2021, 2020? He hasn’t been the same hitter since that disastrous celebratory injury a few years ago, and it seems most unlikely that some instant motivation will cure whatever is wrong with his swing.
@machurucuto or he is a bad addition for any team because he is the Joey Gallo the Yankees had to get rid of. It’s a risk.
Judge is the perfect example of paying a guy what he did the year before thinking he can duplicate that season for the next 5 years. I would like to see him stay with the NYY but some desperate team like the Giants will out bid everyone.
No team does that. They pay according to what he’s capable of while being fully aware of the risk they are taking on. They just got so much loot- it’s worth the risk
By that logic, no team should ever offer any player a multi-year contract and every player with more than six years service time becomes a free agent annually??
I think the argument he is trying to make is you shouldn’t pay and expect 62 home runs and 130 rbis from Judge. Pay him based on his normal body if work which is still great but significantly less impressive.
Whatever he gets, he’s worth it. What a stud.
IMO, Cashman going 2 years with Rizzo was just as much about securing Judge as it was him. Those 2 are tight. Well played. Judge is a career Yank! And as an Orioles fan, I’m miserable about it. Gulp!
I think the Yankees made a mistake with Rizzo. I can’t wrap my mind around New York blasting pat the luxury tax for two more seasons and it would pretty much be a given if they re-sign Judge with dj, Rizzo, Stanton, and Cole all on the books.
Can the Yankees find a taker for Donaldson? How much prospect capital is that going to take?
@drasco036: I feel ya. Rizzo is risky. 33 and 2 back flare ups in 22. Oof. Cashman was/is fully aware of the risk of the signing (as is every other league POBO). That said, IMO, the signing was not a mistake. Even if the back injury blows up the signing is a critical part of Cashman’s strategy in securing Judge. Those 2 define the meaning of “teammates”.
Yeah I am noticing this more and more often- this weird thing amongst cynical fans where they think no player is worth paying anything to because you can’t guarantee future performance, no matter what their track record. It’s bizarre.
My honest to goodness theory is that it’s subconscious jealousy of the insane amounts being paid to guys nowadays- which are honestly actually less valuable than some of the contracts signed at the beginning of the explosion of record breaking free agency agreements 20 years ago.
Alex Rodriguez’s 10 year/$252M contract signed in December 2000 would be worth an equivalent 2022 value of $436M- which is more than what Judge will probably get even if he gets 10 years and is more than even Scherzer earns annually on his record breaking deal.
Like other Uber luxurious assets, baseball contracts don’t inflate like that. Harper got 13 years at $25mm. At todays rates A-Rod may have got the Machado contract at $10/300mm.
Boras’ handling of Bellinger is comedy. Coming out and saying “Now here this! My guy will only do one year deals!” to make it look like a one year deal was their idea is pure Boras. Also saying he got 5 calls in an hour but leaving out that they came from the Pirates, D’backs Cubs etc is funny. You’re not fooling anyone pal.
Your response is comedy (but not in the way you intended).
As soon as Bellinger was non-tendered I’m sure at least 1/2 the teams in the league ears perked up. Why wouldn’t they given his upside and defensive versatility? The Astros got less from first base, I bet they would be interested. The Cubs, Giants, Jays all are rumored to have contacted Boras. I’d be willing to bet the Dodgers are interested in a reunion at a lower price tag as well (assuming they don’t target judge which I think they will).
Bellinger will have his choice as to where he plays (and what position). And I would be willing to bet a handful of teams would offer him a two year deal with a team option for a third.
He’s going to get some owner to offer him a 4yr/76 million with options to player options to out every year.
I’m sticking with my prediction made months ago: Judge signs with the SF Giants.
That’s not happening. He won’t put up the #’s there that he could put up with the Yankees. That would be a huge mistake on his part.
I don’t think anyone is expecting 60+ HRs. But he’s as good a bet as anyone for .280/.400/.550 for at least a few more years in any ballpark.
except in the Postseason. His numbers are less than stellar. That makes him a good fit for LA lol
Line drive percentage and walk rate have steadily gone done in the last 3 years while his strike out rate has steadily increased the last 3 years. Is that a shoulder issue, or is it something else? If it’s just “waiting for the shoulder strength to come back”, wouldn’t the Dodgers have rolled the dice one more time? I am leaning toward the “something else”.
I dont think it takes 3 years for shoulders to heal.
Injuries like that may never heal.
@BRUINLAW; I’m going with the “it’s something else” angle. Slump is way to long removed from injury(s) for that to be the reason.
Telling LA went non tender. He may be spent mentally. It happens. IE confidence shot. If that’s the case, maybe Boras is sincere when saying he and Cody are looking for a one yr deal?
IE. go elsewhere. See if a change of atmosphere gets the confidence back … and do it with a non contender. If he is productive and happy, the following year he seeks a multi year (or trade candidate at the 8/2 trade deadline).
The Mystery team issssssssssss………The Detroit Lions.
Nah.
Jerry Reinsdorf slips on a banana peel and breaks his piggy bank. Rick Hahn gets the green light from Jr. to sign Judge to a 10-yr $380MM contract. Boooooom!!!
Belli might be the most hyped up garbage free agent in quite some time.
I’m going on a limb and saying Bellinger provides more value than deGrom next season.
The thing with Judge’s situation, is that the common logic offer is going to be around 8 years and over $40M AAV, so if anybody seriously trying to sign Judge is going to start at $40M, they’re also going to add to that amount to entice him over their rivals, who will automatically match it- the question then being how high does it go and where does it end?
The Yankees supposedly offered Judge 8 years/$337M or $42.125M a season and now there are reports that that figure was actually much lower and the figure was more like 8 years/$350M in season with a signing bonus and buyout that takes the guarantee to 8 years/$370M.
Assuming that’s even in the ballpark of accurate, that means other clubs know this number themselves and are going into discussions with Judge with a baseline plan of offering him more than that.
Judge is not one of those players who is going to take less to play on a more competitive club or whatever. I highly doubt if the Yankees actually offered somewhere between $337M and $370M (so let’s call it $353.5M) that Judge would take significantly less to play anywhere else, even for his home team the Giants.
So if the Yankees offered around $353.5M, I imagine the Giants would have to match that or go well beyond to make Judge’s choice easy- financially and local kid loyally speaking- probably 8 years/$360M or 9 years/$400.5M- which is what I think this contract winds up being, wherever Judge lands.
I also think the Dodgers lay low, wait out everybody else, find out the final offers and then swoop in with an offer that tops their’s by a year or two and by a couple million a season or something…
Seems like Judge actually wants to play for the Giants, but is also considering his overall legacy- which is more meaningful if he stays a Yankee for life…. you look at someonel ike Ken Griffey, Jr. going back to the Cincinnati Reds out of hometown loyalty and how relatively obscure that part of his career was- injuries aside. That certainly would not happen on the Giants, but even so…
Heck, maybe Atlanta swoops in and offers him 10 years/$450M….
Fascinating situation with Judge- no matter what he’s gonna be the highest paid player ever with the largest long term AAV ever-
I do think about Scherzer, though. Between his $15m a year Nationals deferral payment and his $43.333M annual salary on the Mets, baseball pays Scherzer $58.333M a year right now- maybe Judge will actually try to top that? Like whatever his contract winds up being, he makes sure he gets paid $60M a season for 3 seasons of the deal?
Where are you seeing those numbers reported? If he had received anything close to what you are saying, he would have signed already. You are correct when you said the figure was much lower, as in much lower from the Yankees.
First there’s a typo that I said the offer was lower- I meant that the $337M figure was much lower than the actual offer. This all comes from Jomboy and Jake saying they have sources the $337M figure was lower than what was actually offered and it was more like $350M guaranteed, just as a starting point. I assume that means significant extra cash in the form of a signing bonus and a buyout on an option etc.
And I am speculating that if it comes down to the largest offer and Judge is going into discussions with other clubs now, with the Yankees presumably competitive offer already in hand as a baseline to be topped, other clubs will be looking to beat the $337M to $350M or higher offer the Yankees laid out- which would probably need to be more than an extra few million at this level, in order to pull him away from his legacy career arc as a career Yankee and push any number of scenarios with another club into his most appealing option- meaning the money will have to meaningfully top the Yankees offer, which I imagine would have to be over $2M additional per year- so if the Yankees are offering up to $360M, say, another club might tack on 1-2 years and might even tack on extra dollars per year- which could lead to the first $50M AAV, whether over 8, 9, or 10 years, etc. and the Dodgers keep getting mentioned quietly so I am speculating they will wait out the Yankees and the Giants etc and then top whatever the second largest offer is by years and dollars- which, again, could lead to a half billion ten year deal or an AAV that at least beats Scherzer’s entire annual salaries at the moment.
Once upon a time it was nuts to think one player made $25M a season when the second highest paid player made $18.9M a season etc so at this point with Scherzer etc it’s feasible that Judge could become the first $50M AAV player over that standard mega length of 10 years.
I have no idea who homeboy and Jake are. But if there were legit offers like you believe, they would be all over the place and from reputable people. Not even Haymen has written such nonsense. Judge at 31 won’t even get $250mm. But I like your crazy cat lady enthusiasm.
Jomboy is of Jomboy Media, who are official affiliate news sources for YES Network, aka the Yankees.
Jake is the co host but he’s a similarly clued in person. They have sources. They don’t merely speculate.
You clearly do not understand the economics of the sport.
Jomboy is an official Yankee news affiliate.
Multiple sources reported the $337M figure.
You might not be able to fathom more than $250M but the game’s economics dictate more. He’s an average of an 8 WAR player or something. Even a modest assessment of that value puts him at $32M a year and much closer to $47M a year. So at even 5 years that’s $235M. Anybody would hand Judge that contract in an instant , meaning there’s be a bidding war that would push it to extra dollars and years- at least 7 years/$245M, but that’s an old benchmark of a few years ago set by Rendon and Strasburg, so add at least $3M a year to that and now it’s $266M over 7 years- but he’s a generational talent who will want more years than that. And he turned a similar offer down last off season and then proceeded to improve his value. At this point, 8 years/$300M is a bargain and the realistic number will land between $350-$400M. It’s just simple economics of the game, whether you like it or not.
I fully aware of the economics of the game and it’s youth movement. How are those 10y/$400 contacts for Harper and Machado doing? Oh that’s right, they never got them although all we heard was the floor offer for a year plus. Last summer he turned down 7y/$211mm. Mark Feinsand, a legit reporter, has stated Judge is looking for 8y/$320mm. Looking at the recent contracts that take position players to their age 38 season, $32mm-$34mm AAV is exactly where he should be. Yes, he had a great season, but it didn’t really do much to substantially increase his next contract. He’s 31 not 27. He was already viewed as one of the top position players in the league which is why he got the $31.5mm AAV offer. He will get paid like one of the best position players in the league and that value has set between $30mm-$35mm AAV. It will probably be around 7y/$235mm or 6y/$215mm. If he is set on 8 years it will be closer to $30mm AAV. He can ask for whatever he wants and make it public, but that doesn’t mean any ownership has to pay it. And they all know there is no real market for him except for SF and NYY. What’s he going to do, take his bat and stay home if he doesn’t get what he wants?
There has never been a $300mm+ contract issues for less then ten years to a position player. Even Trout tops lit at $35.5mm AAV on his 12 year deal and judge is 4 years older signing his contract and Judge doesn’t have 2 MVPs and 4 second place finishes going into his contract negotiations.
1) Judge debuted 5 years after Trout, Trout has never actually reached free agency.
2) “Never say never” as the saying goes. There was never a [insert record breaking contract value, contract length, etc.] before every single record breaking contract. That’s why they’re record breaking.
3) One of the reasons most contracts and in particular most extra long mega contracts are paid out evenly is that the player gets under paid early on, evenly paid in the middle and then by the back third or back half or whatever, while they’re still getting paid the same large amount, actual inflation and in-game inflation has made the salary far more palatable, especially on very long term deals of 10 years or more.
4) Judge actually does have an MVP and most people feel he had an MVP stolen from him by Altuve- so he’s kind of got a ghost MVP on top of his actual MVP as far as valuation goes.
5) One of the reasons teams and players add years onto deals is that they player wants a certain amount of money in total and the market is willing to offer a certain number of years in general, so it often takes the team with the winning bid offering extra years and dollars to sign a player, even knowing the last year or two or three or even four will not be worth the money. But Baseball is a largely Win Now sport, so a guy on a 10 year deal is actually getting paid for the first 5 years- it’s one reason the Nationals are such huge fans of offering contracts with lots of deferred money- so that they can match the top offers if not exceed them and avoid the yearly expense, while the player still gets all the money- the issue is time value of money decreasing due to inflation and many players preferring to get all of their money over the relatively short lifetime of a contract rather than over extra years where the original value has decreased due to said inflation.
The mandate of players by the players’ union is to always ask for a little more than similarly valued players from previous years’ free agent, otherwise teams are given precedent to continue offering the same amount to equivalent players as their revenues increase year over year- it’s like the thing from the Office where Oscars makes Michael spend the surplus on something practical so that the head office doesn’t go back to them next year and give them a smaller budget based on the money not spent.
If Judge accepts $35M or even $36M, it’ll be a step back from similar free agent classes from even a few years ago- for instance- Rendon’s $35M AAV from 2020 would be worth $40.25M today- which is roughly what Judge is expected to get offered and get paid.
So really we’re just anticipating Judge’s contract keeps up with modern day dollar values. That would be a minimum of 7 years/$281.75M- which, again, any team interested in Judge would offer in the blink of an eye, meaning the value will get pushed by a year or two extra and the AAV will get pushed by $1-2M a year, meaning that similar valued free agency feeding frenzy that resulted in 7 years/$245M a few years ago should result in around an 8 year/$340M or more value today- which is roughly what Judge will get from literally any suitor- meaning it will probably wind up closer to $350M and very easily could reach $400M.
That’s just the way it is.
Rendon was a one of the perfect examples of why he will never get that contract. Stanton is another. High ticket items, that cost 10’s of millions of dollars much less 100’s of millions of dollars don’t inflate like other items on the CPI. And the cost of goods has remained relatively flat most of this century. Yes something’s have up but not as aggressive as you state. Some items in fact have seen significantly reduced prices as user adoption increased and operational efficiencies have been realized, like television, or as cross company synergies have been realized, like the reduction in cell phone rates.
But do you get that it’s an understood reality of the game’s economics that teams knowingly pay extra years and dollars to get guys now for the next few years, knowing they will drop off over the life of the contract and newer younger prospects or younger free agents will replace their in game productivity and older expired deals will come off the books to make the last chunk of the contract we’re theoretically referring to more palatable until it too comes off the books for the best identical deal?
There’s so much money in the game, much of it generated by fan interest in specific players- like Judge- that the contract pays for itself with a profit margin. It’s why they’re given out the way they are across the league.
You seem to forget these teams are owned and operated by billionaires who are mostly making a healthy profit on their clubs and big ticket free agents are basically an amusement park attraction that will always inevitably need to be replaced but when they’re new, they make back enough money from merchandise sales, broadcasting rights, ticket sales etc that the player’s presence on the roaster is value enough, with their in game production being more of a financial bonus and any kinds of individual record breaking seasons or post season successes being large cherries on top, but still cherries.
Judge is a money printing machine of a player for anybody who will sign him and there’s a good chance he will produce in the game to justify the contract on top of the marketing incentives.
Why do you care so much anyway? It isn’t your money.
1. I like to be right. 2. I like to help educate people that what the media puts out there is usually far from the reality when it comes to baseball contracts, it’s actually a pet peeve of mine. I agree with all of your points, that’s while he’ll get paid like the other top contracts. It’s still going to be a bad contract long term. But he’s not going to fantastically beat all other contracts. It’s going to be right in line with what the other top players who in the game have gotten, adjusted for being over 30.
Why does everyone think Atlanta’s interested in spending money on big time free agents? That’s just not their MO, never has been.
I don’t think anybody believes that about the Braves but if you think about some of the contracts they’ve offered players, they can absolutely afford it and there’s always a scenario where they could decide to hand out a large free agent deal. Every financially conservative club makes an exception here and there- and Atlanta has been handing out big contracts lately, just to guys early in their careers where $16-$20M AAV etc is a big coup for a player with no history of contracts and a chance to be a career Atlanta player.