Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
With the final game of the 2022 MLB season coming as soon as tomorrow night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. Astros Facing Decisions On Baker, Click
After a hard-fought Game 5 that afforded Justin Verlander his first pitcher win in the World Series, the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however, they’ll have to face the personnel decisions that their postseason run has put on hold to this point. Both manager Dusty Baker and GM James Click are on expiring contracts, and Astros owner Jim Crane will have to decide their futures with the franchise. The Astros are expected to ask Baker to return in 2023, and Baker has indicated that he would like to continue managing regardless of the outcome of this postseason run. The future is murkier for Click, however, as speculation has run rampant throughout the postseason that he may not be asked to return to Houston in 2023, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Click’s future as recently as last night. While it’s surprising to see so much uncertainty around a GM who has captured back-to-back AL pennants and might add a World Series championship to his resume as soon as tomorrow night, reports of a personality clash between Crane and Click abound. Heyman suggests that the Astros may be interested in David Stearns, who served as their assistant GM prior to running Milwaukee’s front office. While Stearns has stepped down as president of baseball operations for the Brewers, he’s not likely to run the Astros or any other team during the 2023 season, for which he is still under contract in Milwaukee. Even if the Astros are indeed interested in Stearns as their long-term head of baseball operations, the question of who will be at the helm in Houston next season remains unanswered.
2. Option Decisions Loom
A number of players and teams are facing option decisions, and with the World Series set to end this weekend, those decisions will have to be made sometime next week. While some decisions, such as that of Nolan Arenado, have already been made, most are still up in the air. Anthony Rizzo, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Odorizzi are among the players with tougher decisions facing them on whether or not to test free agency. As for club options, the Dodgers have one of the tougher calls on Justin Turner’s $16MM option, as do the Brewers on Kolten Wong’s $10MM option. Additionally, many of the biggest names on the free agent market this season, such as Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, are technically not set to be free agents until they opt-out of their current contracts, though for decisions as clear as these this is little more than a formality.
3. Arizona Faces Outfield Logjam
Despite finishing the regular season with an unimpressive 74-88 record, the Diamondbacks are by no means a team without talent. Unfortunately for Arizona, however, a great deal of that talent overlaps heavily, as the team is flush with young, controllable, lefty-hitting outfielders. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas highlight the bunch in terms of prospect pedigree, but Jake McCarthy had a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho turned in a quality season as an everyday player spending most of his time in the outfield, Pavin Smith won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next season, and Dominic Fletcher is knocking on the door in Triple-A. Between the DH and some positional versatility — Varsho caught 175 innings in 2022, while Smith played a bit of first base — Arizona could find at-bats for most, or perhaps even all, of these players. A better solution for the Diamondbacks, though, would be to explore trades for one or two of these young players in order to shore up their pitching staff or address other holes in the lineup. Carroll and Varsho would likely be off-limits, but perhaps a team looking to get more left-handed bats into the lineup, such as either Chicago team or the Marlins, could be interested in acquiring McCarthy, Smith, or Fletcher. While it’s not inconceivable Thomas could be moved, after a rough start to his major league career in 2022, Arizona would likely be selling low on him in any deal.
The bad Phillies are back.
I strongly disagree. The Phillies fought hard, made some clutch plays, and would have had a good chance of winning but for two outstanding defensive plays by Houston in the 8th and 9th innings. (I know because I was there.) Even though the Astros have the advantage, I wouldn’t be so quick to write the Phillies off. It would not surprise me if they came back to win, nor if they came back to the Series next year.
The Philadelphia Phillies are playing .500 baseball in the World Series. .500 teams don’t win Championships. As for the “IF’s”
If It’s were skiffs, we would all go for a boat ride.
Time for Philadelphia to start planning their off season.
@Rick pardon me?
I dislike both teams, but what? The Phillies were in this game until the final pitch, and have shown in this series/post season that they can hit for power.
The Schwarber would-be double Mancini miraculously fielded in the 9th would have scored the tying run.
By that logic, Rick, the Astros were also playing .500 baseball in the World Series…so I guess let’s call it over and declare no winner of the 2022 World Series.
Fair point Cap. Remember though, Castellanos made that great play in game 1 to save the game in the bottom of the 9th, otherwise the Astros hoist a trophy last night.
the lack of coverage of the philly phanatic by fox is an idicator houston will win.
Phillies are an extraordinarily tough team. So many great players on their team. Phillies were 2-1. Just because the Astros are up 3-2 does not mean the Series is theirs. Astros lost to the Nationals at home after being up 3-2.
Astros need to play their absolute best to beat the Phillies.
the Phillies will come out strong in game six, but they will meet the impenetrable wall that is the Astros. Houston in six.
If the Phils had a real bench bat that they trusted it could’ve been a different outcome last night.
I would’ve bet any amount of money that Marsh wouldn’t knock that run on 3rd in the 8th last night. Swinging out of his shoes.
They have not played their best yet and are up 3-2. They really have not played their best the whole playoffs. If they play their best philly stands no chance.
The Stros-Nationals series was weird, each team lost all its games at home. This is not the same series and the Phillies do not have the starting pitching the Nats had.
I insist: The Dbacks and the Marlins are perfect partners to strike a deal this offseason involving Pablo López for one of the multiple OF they have.
I can see the Brewers trading for 1 of the D-Backs OF’ers..if it will save them a couple dollars…a corresponding move to shipping Renfroe out
Manny,
Renfroe might be a good right handed bat for the Dbacks problem with all left handers, but they won’t trade any of the big 4 left handed CF for a rental, and Renfroe is a rental.
Didn’t mean to imply Renfroe would be going back to AZ. Just that he’ll potentially be traded away due to a projected $12 mil salary.
Thanks Manny,
If you were the Brewers GM, would you trade Taylor Rogers or Devin Willams to the Dbacks to get one of their left handed CF?
I guess Rogers is a Free Agent, so just Williams?
I don’t consider myself super up to speed on contracts, controllable years and such (of any teams really). My personal opinion is a strong NO for Williams. Rogers, IF he were under control for next year, I likely would part ways with him..but I don’t know enough about the D-Backs guys to say who I’d want..if anyone.
There are plenty of fans who insist MKE just go with the young guys in the OF. I don’t believe they’ll do that, so it’s all my gut feeling.
Jake McCarthy would have tons of appeal because he is cheap and coming off a solid season. I haven’t looked at his defensive numbers however.
It would really surprise me if click was let go. Of course overall he hasn’t done that much to change the astros roster as really almost all of the major league pieces as well as most prospects already have been acquired by luhnow but still under him the org didn’t really miss a beat despite being hired into a difficult situation.
Regarding baker I think baker isn’t really an ideal in game manager (as seen by keeping jv and mccullers on too long) but he isn’t terrible either and by a PR perspective it was a genius hire by the astros.
I read click doesn’t love baker because he sometimes resists analytics but really the astros can’t fire baker after winning 106 games, baker is really the only reason some people outside of Houston are rooting for the astros and firing him would cause an outrage.
Baker was the ideal hire to restore some of the astros public standing and maybe that is also one of the hold ups between crane and click, i. E click seeing a pure on field performance perspective telling crane there could be a better manager and crane saying that he prefers the value that dusty brings in restoring the orgs brand value after the scandal.
I can understand both here, click wants to optimize performance and crane wants to win but he also sees the devastating effect the scandal had on the astros brand and that dusty was the ideal guy to lead them to those times.
But of course dusty also can’t do this forever and you don’t want this to end like la russa so ideally you have baker leaving on his own terms in a year or two.
Did he Leave Verlander in too long last night? I hate to tell you, but unless it’s a win or go home situation, good managers let their players work through adversity throughout games. You don’t want to blow up your bullpen every time a pitcher gets in trouble. Also, I guess their must be 30 other terrible game managers out there, since their not in the World Series
Baker doesn’t like using analytics? I knew there was something I liked about him. I don’t think if Dusty stays on it will turn into another LaRussa thing. he set a new standard for horrible during his time with the wsox.
Im the last three years, Dusty has the most successful team in baseball. Who cares about analytics or superstition? I love the results. I hope Dusty gets to keep the job until he doesn’t want it.
Will Click stay with Houston. Or be asked back.that is. I do not see him leaving with way season has gone and if win WS shall we say. But I am not Crane. Not sure who could get. Dusty I can see back another year at least.
If Houston wants Stearns for the right price the Brewers would let him go in a heartbeat, you mark my words, they know they could get something form a team to release Stearns from the 1-year advisory role.
rolafaive;
Stearns’ wife is from Houston. I think they want to go back there.
That nonsense about being an advisor for a year, and the Brewers owner is going to pay him a full salary to chill….silly.
MLB players, managers, FO people work back channels.
How do trades for execs work? Do they trade for comp picks or could the Brewers get a prospect?
Curious of manager hires recently which one stands out of the teams. If Dusty were let go which I doubt will would ASTROS have turned to Espada the bench coach. As for Click I can see them making a change with him perhaps. I know the off season is lurking but for some reason I do not feel it with him. But with all that may have to be looked at with Houston like LF, CF, catching behind Maldy and maybe first base. We may have the starting pitching but will changes come in bullpen. That is one reason maybe Click stays another year. But guess sometime next week they could decide on him. But Dusty has fit with this team.
Rookie catcher Korey Lee might be the Astros starting catcher next season and Maldonado the back-up.
Lee among the top 3 defensive catchers in the minors and slugged 25 HRs.
I don’t expect the Astros to be aggressive in free agency.
Astros farm system is deep in OFers and pitching. Their system is EXTREMELY thin on IF depth though which is the reason their system ranks low.
Yanier Diaz >Korey Lee
Lee is a superior defensive catcher to Diaz.
Astros are giving Diaz more time at 1B and the OF. Diaz has a cannon for an arm and make some exceptional plays in the OF.
His defense at catcher is a work in progress. Diaz struggles with blocking/framing.
Lee was voted best defensive catcher in the PCL by managers with his Gold Glove caliber defense.
They need to be aggressive.. If JV leaves, you will have his and Brantley’s money free to spend on 1B and LF. I would love for them to resign Brantley let him learn 1B. Their lineup is so much better with him in it.
I’d keep Yuli, too.
Yuli wants to return so we will see.
McCormick has pretty taken over the CF job and Yordan is quality LF. The outfield is fine. Korey Lee and Yanier Diaz are both close to major league ready. One or both can handle the catching position. 1B tends to be an easy position to fill.
I want the Astros to make upgrades, but they don’t really have any holes.
Me, an empath, sensing that the Astros are a better team than the Phillies.
The Astros have a deeper rotation, a deeper bullpen and play better defense than the Phillies. The Phillies mash. Better team? If 28 other GM’s were asked “if you could have the 26 man roster of the Astros or the Phillies, which would you choose”….thinking 28/28 choose the Astros roster.
I was making a joke but okay.
The Phillies have an explosive Offense. Their pitching is good.
Astros have a dog fight on their hands and should not take anything for granted. This series could easily be 3-2 Phillies.
I expect RHP Zach Wheeler to pitch a great game Saturday. LHP Framber Valdez needs to be lights out.
I’m proud of both teams. This has been an all time great series to this point.
This has been a very exciting world series. I would really like it to go 7 games.
You can’t talk “lefty bat needed” without mentioning the Blue Jays.
McCarthy could be a really nice fit there. Thomas is going to be a good player, but it’s difficult to say when he’ll reach his potential. The Jays need a more advanced bat (like McCarthy’s), opposed to waiting on Thomas to develop.
Moonlight, who do you think the Blue Jays might offer the Dbacks for McCarthy?
The Dbacks will Not trade for 1 year rentals, they want 3-5 years of control.
The Dback’s needs, in order of priority, are:
1. Closer
2. 3b, right handed with some power
3. OF, right handed with big power
4. Starter
Dbacks will Not trade any of their top 4 OF (Carroll, Varsho, McCarthy or Thomas) for backup catchers or middle relievers.
The Jays have a solid minor league system, especially for 2B/3B/SS and (more importantly) pitching. The big club also has three starting catchers, and Lourdes Gurriel is a RH bat with similar on-field value to McCarthy—but with less control.
So there’s enough to work with. And it doesn’t necessarily have to be a 1-for-1. However, I would think the D-backs’ No. 1 priority would be MLB-ready starting pitching, which is something the Jays can’t spare.
As for whether the Jays will make an offer… It’s hard to say. They’re not exactly run by a DiPoto-type, but they at least try to address needs. And the D-backs have an abundance of one of their needs.
Cardinals might match up here.
Natural 3B Nolan Gorman may have trouble at 2B with the new shift restrictions and he’s blocked by the other Nolan on the roster. Pre-season 2022 Baseball Prospectus rankings had Gorman at #28 overall among all MLB prospects, Corbin Carroll at #34 and Thomas at #37, so there’s potential for a fit here.
Stl might be mildly interested in a Carson Kelly reunion as well and has the financial flexibility that could enable them to take on Melancon’s contract as a sweetener.
Not sure how the respective organizations view Gorman and Thomas vs Carroll but I bet a package of players could be assembled to mitigate risk and satisfy all parties.
Nolan Gorman, Jordan Hicks, Moises Gomez (OF) for Carroll, Kelly and Melancon for example would loosely address your top three items, with Gorman being the primary get for AZ and Carroll for Stl..
Funny, while I was touting the Jays as a possible trade partner with Arizona, I see the Cardinals as another trade partner for the Jays—specifically focusing on Gorman and Alec Burleson.
How about a three-way trade? Gabriel Moreno goes to St. L to replace Yadier Molina, Gorman and Yepez head to Arizona, and Carroll lands in Toronto. All problems solved! (Maybe the Cardinals get an extra piece in return.)
Big mistake for the Astros to bring back Dusty he just doesn’t know how to make adjustments. Left Verlander in too long got lucky, brought in Montero yet again when he had a healthy Stanek to go to. Really hoping he wins his title and rides of into the sunset. His man love for Mancini is sickening at this point 0-18. I know Mancini made that okay in the 8th but pretty sure if Gurriel didn’t get injured he would’ve made it too. Good thing Dusty didn’t play his usual game and bring in Dubon in the 9th, I don’t think he makes that catch
Yet he’s managed this team to the WS twice. It’s not always sunshine and rainbows with Dusty, but he kept the ship moving under very difficult circumstances. It’s easy to complain when things go wrong, but he snakes the correct call most the time.
Also, got lucky with Verlander? We all know JV’s WS numbers, but he’s a HOF pitcher. He didn’t get lucky. He grinded thru a great lineup that lit him up last start and gave the Astros a chance to win. He got better thru out the outing as well.
Even the radio guys were saying in the 2nd inning they should’ve had someone warming up so I’m not alone. Dusty was handed a team with a lot of talent so I guess the question is how much does a manager really add to a team? He’s horrible with adjustments I’m hoping we can agree on if nothing else
Astros let Correa, Morton, Springer, Keuchel, and Cole walk.
Astros replaced Correa with Peña.
Astros replaced Morton with Garcia.
Astros replaced Springer with McCormick.
Astros replaced Keuchel with Valdez.
Astros replaced Cole with Javier.
With the exception of Peña who plateaued at #72, none of these players were top prospects.
The franchise is 110% committed to player development and will continue to see a return on its investment in its players.
– Astros offer housing to its minor league players
– Astros modernized all of its facilities
– minor league players have robust medical support (they really take care of their players)
– the Astros analytics department provides direct support to all minor leaguers.
– Astros deploy instructors to its minor league facilities.
The Astros will continue to promote from within.
And what’s your point? Neither of us were talking bad about the Astros. Maybe you posted in the wrong spot ?
Smart analysis.
Dusty is a player’s manager. He gets amazing results from his players. He also makes some weird, non traditional moves. People forget the first part.
I cant agree more. I cringe everytime i see Montero come in with a one run lead. First batter he always runs up the count to 3-2. He throws way too many balls. Stanek should be the 8th inning guy. I like Dusty but if we win the WS he should retire. Thats all hes missing is a WS ring. Espada should be the next manager imo.
Sure hope the Diamondbacks don’t trade McCarthy. He can play all over the outfield, hit both lefties and righties, and run like crazy.
I agree but at least one will be traded and he is most likely to be gone. Would be a pity, one of my favs on the D-Backs.
I would actually expect Thomas to be the more likely trade candidate. He probably can’t be expected to be any better than McCarthy, but he still has that recent-prospect shine that could net more in a trade.
I think that prospect status isn’t too important for the McCarthy v Thomas debate now.
McCarthy was a 1st round pick who performed at the highest level. I think the two have very similar ceilings as well. McCarthy right now has the MLB performance.
Orioles,
I agree with you that it’s a tossup between McCarthy and Thomas.
Thomas plays highlight reel defensive CF and was a Gold Glove finalist this year. But offensively, he was a victim of the Dbacks being forced to play some of their 4 left handed CF against left handed pitchers and he couldn’t make the necessary adjustments quick enough, so the Dbacks had to send him to AAA. He has more than enough talent to make the adjustments this next year and become a productive offensive bat.
McCarthy has great speed, plays plus, plus defense in CF and hit with power as one of the Top rookie performers in 2022. Advance analytics however tossed out some red flags regarding his hitting. He had a bloated batting average on balls in play and low velocity numbers on his hits. Those two red flags cause many to expect significant regression next year.
So both have spectacular strengths and performance, but both also have question marks.
I hear what you’re saying, but it does matter. McCarthy is a 25-year-old with half a season of solid MLB production. Thomas is a 22-year-old who struggled but also held his own somewhat in his in a similar number plate appearance (sabout 50 more PA). At 22, McCarthy was putting up average numbers in Single-A.
I really like McCarthy’s game, so I’m not denigrating him at all. I just see the younger guy, who’s been more touted ever since entering pro ball, garnering more in a trade.
Although, Thomas is probably more valuable to a rebuilding team, while McCarthy is probably more valuable to a win-now team. So, in that regard, maybe it’s a wash.
Suffer and Let’s Go Dbacks,
I really like all 4 and don’t want to see any of them traded…but as much as these 4 young OF are exciting, there is a big problem with all 4 (plus Pavin, Fletcher and Canzone) being left handed hitters.
Last year, at the end of the season when all 4 were with the Dbacks, opponents threw every left handed starter and reliever on their rosters at the Dbacks with great success. The Dbacks couldn’t play all 4 and the “right handed lineup” (Luplow, Rivera, Cooper and Stone Garrett) was pathetic.
That is a major weakness for the Dbacks. They need 1 or 2 of these 4 as trade chips to shore up this weakness, because consistently good, right handed power bats aren’t available on the Waiver Wire or from Free Agency.
I actually feel that Garrett did well in his short time there. The other three? Not so well, sickly even.
Suffer,
I know you always liked Garrett and routed for him to be called up earlier than anybody. Yes, Stone did well initially, but he tailed off pretty badly after the league adjusted to him. He never made counter adjustments. Instead he expanded the strike zone and stopped being patient. By the end of the year, he seemed to be an automatic out just like Luplow, Rivera and Hummel.
I know people don’t see things this way, but Pavin Smith is an exceptionally good defensive 1B. LH throwers make the best 1B’s.
But the guy can’t hit. Which kills his value as LH throwers have to play 1B or the OF.
D-Backs already have the best defensive 1B in baseball, and he produces offensively. They need to trade Pavin Smith……..if anyone would even take him.
Samuel,
I like Pavin as well. But I think the Dbacks will be better off trading him, as long as they don’t sell low.
On paper, Pavin is a good left handed backup to Walker at 1b and as a spare OF. The problems are: Walker doesn’t need to be platooned, nor does Walker need a late inning defensive replacement. And the Dbacks certainly don’t need another left handed hitting OF!
So, Pavin’s value on this Dbacks team is less than the value he would have on another team that didn’t have a Gold Glove 1b and an all left handed hitting OF. I think another team will see this and honor Pavin’s pedigree as a First Round pick, so the Dbacks can get value in the return from a trade.
Blue Jays could use a lefty bat in CF.
As an Astros fan, I won’t be surprised if Click and Baker are back again, both signed to longer term deals, or if one of them is let go. With a World Series win, Baker’s chances go up to almost 100%. I’ve heard Crane likes Stearns and Sig Mejdal, who is the Orioles Assistant GM and was once a Luhnow assistant like Stearns. Luhnow is also out there – probably a long shot because of the cheating scandal, but since Cora, Hinch and Beltran are gainfully employed in MLB, why not Luhnow. Let’s see what happens. One thing is that Crane overall knows what he is doing and has been a great owner for the last 10 years.
Much of the narrative in the press surrounding Click is overblown and off base.
Click tells Crane what he thinks even if Crane doesn’t like it in the moment. He keeps it honest. Crane has more respect for Click than he ever did for Luhnow.
Crane and Luhnow will never be in the same room again. Crane has no respect for Luhnow – Luhnow sued Crane and the Astros for $22M.
I predict that both Baker and Click will return.
You seem to know quite a bit insider knowledge.
Personally, I’d love for a Lunhow reunion, but it’s unlikely. However, I can’t blame him for the lawsuit. He had a clear case of wrongful termination and was due a settlement. Most people in Lunhow’s position would have maximized their money.
“the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however”
Gee, this author is quite confident im the outcome.
A bit presumptuous. Phillies will fight hard. Astros better not get complacent.
Im pulling for Houston to win just so their low class and criminal fan base can burn that city and shoot their guns in the air while the rest of the world watches
With all that has happened lately with mass shootings and school shootings this comment is completely uncalled for. Do you think that all Texans run around with guns on horses or something? Read the article in the Philadelphia Inquirer by a female reporter that attended the game in Houston on her full on Philly gear and how respectful people treated her. It’s people like your closed minded self that is the problem with what’s going on in this nation.
The nation is great because of me. I could have retired when I was 14 but continued to work into my 20’s. I know what it means to sacrifice.
Sorry that’s any east coast city where you have hoodlums and thugs in a deplorable decaying crap. No wonder so many folks from the East and west coast have moved to Houston where there are jobs and people are not living on the streets.
Actually I live in Houston. But born and raised in Los Angeles. After a world championship is won I’d feel a million times safer here than back in LA. As for the fan base I’m an Angels fan in general (love of game first) but have never once had an issue at a game here in Houston, something I can’t say about several other cities I’ve seen games in. Your take is very biased and uneducated.
I think Dusty is gone regardless of outcome. If they win he retires on top and if they lose they go in a different direction.
if phillies win next two games they will win world series