With the Winter Meetings now less than a week away, the hot stove seems to be heating up. Here are some things we’re keeping our eyes on today…
1. Are The Astros And Verlander Moving On From Each Other?
The Astros just won the World Series but they’re not resting on their laurels. Despite parting ways with general manager James Click and not hiring a replacement, the club has been one of the most aggressive so far this offseason. They re-signed Rafael Montero to a three-year deal and yesterday poached Jose Abreu from the White Sox on another three-year deal. Next on the agenda seems to be their pursuit of a left-handed hitting outfielder, with the club connected to Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger in recent days. One area where the club appears to be less focused is starting pitching. A couple of weeks ago, reports indicated that Justin Verlander was looking for a deal similar to the three-year pact Max Scherzer got from the Mets, but that the Astros and owner Jim Crane weren’t willing to go to that level. Since that time, Houston has turned to other players while Verlander has met with the Mets and then also reportedly met with the Dodgers yesterday. Does this mean that his time in Houston, which began in 2017, is coming to an end?
2. Will The Run On First Basemen Continue?
The first base market has been surprisingly active so far this winter, as the Yankees re-signed Anthony Rizzo, the Pirates traded for Ji-Man Choi and signed Carlos Santana, and then Abreu landed with the Astros yesterday. For teams that still need help at first, the options are starting to dwindle. Josh Bell, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, and Luke Voit are some of the free agents still available, while Rowdy Tellez could potentially be available in a trade. The Padres, Cubs, Marlins and Guardians were all connected to Abreu in some fashion but will now need to move on to backup plans. The Rays, Twins and Giants are also teams that could pursue upgrades. As options come off the table, will those clubs act quickly before it’s too late?
3. Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard
The leaderboard for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest will be unveiled later today. As players sign, you’ll be able to track your predictions and compare yourself to other contestants, including MLBTR employees. We decided to make one change this year compared to years past, removing the “freebies.” That means that Anthony Rizzo, Clayton Kershaw, Rafael Montero, Joc Pederson, Martin Perez, and Tyler Anderson will be removed from the results and batting average calculation since they signed while the contest was open.
Luke Voit could be a good option at 1st
I predict that whoever is the cheapest and worst offensive catcher available, the Pirates will sign him
Robinson Chirinos, come on down!
Hedges. Oh, cheapest: Tony Walters?
White Sox should trade Gavin Sheets to further breakup the log jam at 1B.
Grandal needs to play some 1B this year, too.
Eh, I wouldn’t give first base time to a guy that couldn’t slug .300 last year.
Bit off topic there, but Sheets is fine to keep as a low cost lefty bat under contract control they lack (backup for Vaughn-who has had IL time each season). Can spot DH vs RHP when Eloy inevitably lands on IL. Also Sheets has no significant trade value.
Grandal is a sunk cost for ’23 until/unless they can find someone to take on 6-9mil of his salary just because some club wants more potential offense from its C despite sacrificing defense (flawed thinking).
Mancini plays 1B wonder how it’ll work out if he’ll play in LF, DH, or 1B, interesting.
Orioles fan here. He’s a 1B/DH. Any offensive value he provides is given right back by playing him in the OF.
He had 2 DRS and a 2.9 UZR in the OF last year so this is incorrect.
1 year, small sample size defensive metrics are basically useless. He is not suited to the OF.
Hou fan here. Agreed. Hope Trey finds a good place to rebound in 23.
I do too. He’s a class act. Glad he got a ring with Houston last year.
What offense?
The above league average offense he has provided for his entire career minus a SSS post-trade last year?
Instead of getting rid of the freebies just readjust the list and add new FAs to make up the difference.
And remove the BS posting from 4lie above.
@dewey, I’m missing who this in reference to, unless it’s been removed.
You probably muted him. MLBTR doesn’t really remove comments, aside from blatant spam.
It’s a good thing tho, I love the mute function
Some people submit their entry before the contest closes; I’d rather not expect or ask them to go back and pick for six additional players. 44 should be plenty difficult.
Then don’t let them… and don’t advertise that they can and then suddenly change it last second.
Nobody likes a complainer, Jingle Schmidt.
It’s done! The protests of JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt are duly noted.
Many of those were easy picks anyway… should have counted them.
Because the decision went after the fact, I think it’s appropriate to at least display those “freebie” picks.
I can see why you obviously don’t want to do this, as it opens the door for drama (especially if the winner missed a freebie or two, but second place didn’t), but you have to admit, Tim, changing it last minute and then hiding it seems a little bit sketchy.
I think it mostly seems sketchy to you personally, although you haven’t articulated a good reason of what I have to gain by it.
Sorry to see that you eliminated the “freebies” for the following reason:
While it is obvious that these transactions were “gimmees” you should have rewarded those who paid attention to your site and updated their listings as they happened, even if it was before the contest began!!
I thought they said before the contest started that the “freebies” would be honored??
They called backsies
With no freebies I’m only going to get like 1 or 2 right lol
They did.
They changed there minds.
I guess with the freebies gone, I’m going 0/50
Fortunately, you can only go 0 for 45. A man has to know his limits.
They did.
Looks like they changed there minds
Guess I’m going 0/50 this year.
The first time you posted this I just figured you made a mistake, but you really don’t know it should be “their” minds, do you?
@ham77
But somehow you knew what he was trying to convey anyways!
you should have rewarded those who paid attention to your site and updated their listings as they happened,
======================================
For almost my entire academic life, there have been teachers that will say “this will be on the final”. And it always was. And I always got it right.
This is one of life’s little lessons to always pay attention.
As a professor, I can tell you, wife, life and your boss will be harder on you. They don’t have tenure!
I went from 0 for 6 to 0 for 1!!!
My finger is not hovering over the subscribe button any longer.
That’s been my mindset, but I decided instead just to make it be as challenging as possible and reflect how hard it is.
SeattleSlew—It was my only chance to save face.
Please add a link to the top free agent list with projected salaries. Then once one signs, delete the narrative. No need to read about him when he is no longer a FA.
I don’t like that idea at all. The narrative is a very important part of that post to us as a capsule of what we thought of the player and his possibilities before the market opened.
Cheating Astros. Once a cheater, always a cheater. Ask Pete Rose and the PED abusers.
Good luck erasing every team from history that Beltran and Cora ever played for, coached, or worked in the booth for. Might want to pick a new sport if their cheating taints the game for you. They have been involved on a crap ton of teams with their cheating ways.
Not an Astros fan, but y’all have to let go. Y’all beginning to sound like one of those 60 year old guys at the pub complaining about grudge from high school.
Martins Ferry High School is STILL a garbage school. That wont change.
Eh. It was a huge organizational scandal that was never properly punished. The Astros are also one of the most talented teams in the league and will continue to win. People are allowed to hate that organization as they keep finding success. Villains are good for sports.
They were properly punished. The GM and manager were fired. They were fined the maximum penalty. The players say absolutely nothing if the get suspended in any way. That’s how that worked.
Nah. That was weak sauce. Players who do steroids get suspended. Astros players got immunity and a parade.
They didn’t get suspended initially. Players like Sosa, Bonds, McGwire, Ortiz, etc didn’t get suspended. Once the league knew the full scope of the PED issue punishments were issued. Just like the PED era was league wide, the Astros scheme was also league wide. The league needed to know the full extent of it. The only way to do that was how they went about it and make them the fall team. They were punished way more than they should have.
I would not mind the Orioles shopping Ryan Mountcastle if the 1B market stays hot. Anthony Santander or Jordan Westburg would likely be able to handle the position just fine if Mountcastle was to be traded, plus 1B may be Coby Mayo’s ultimate destination if he does not improve at 3B or work out in RF.
@KFloch: thanks for turning me on to the trading Mountcastle angle. Saw a lot of games at OPACY in 22. He looked out of sorts/uncomfortable at the plate. My thought is that Mt Waltimore is in his head. Move him to a team where he can flourish and the Birds get a high end starter in return.
I prefer a Josh Bell FA signing to take on 1st base, but interesting take on going in house. Cheers!
Santander played some 1B in the minors and the Orioles worked him out there a bit late last year, so it seems the team has at least considered the idea. He’s slow and getting slower, so 1B might be the best place for him if they want to keep his bat in the lineup when Adley needs a DH day. As for Westburg, he can play a passable SS and 3B but 2B is his best position, and with so many 2023 2B/3B/SS options like Gunnar, Mateo, Urias, Vavra, Ortiz, and Norby, giving him a shot at 1B could be a way to find him more ABs. He definitely has the size and offensive profile to play 1B.
I would also have interest in Bell, but the contract predictions I have seen for him are a bit off-putting. 4/$60+ million is more than I would be comfortable with committing to him with as up and down as he has been over the last 4 years.
4/$60+ Gulp!
As a Jays fan
PLEASE MOVE MOUNTCASTLE OUT OF THE AL
He and his like 1500 OPS against us is free to go elsewhere, ill even pay his flight if you find a suitor
Ha ha. It’s crazy how each team has one guy who absolutely crushes them.
LOL, maybe we should just hold onto him after all…
😉
You should find a way to give at least partial credit for the “freebies” if people submitted the correct pick before the deal happened. Bummer to lose out on those points when I had almost all of them right without changing picks
In the Free Agent prediction contest, I wonder if anyone picked Josh Bell, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, and Luke Voit to sign with the Pirates?
Is Rowdy Tellez really a trade option? I suppose if the Brewers signed one of the 1B FAs (unlikely) they would move Tellez. But trading Tellez for the hell of it wouldn’t help the team get more bites of the apple. If they go that route, they may as well barf up the whole damn apple.
Not a fan of the “freebies” being removed either. I made my picks before they signed and haven’t modified them since I finished choosing. I think the system should’ve been left as it was for this year. Then next year, just open the contest sooner, with the deadline to choose being sooner. That way there’d be less chance of being a freebie.
Plus, Kershaw, Rizzo, basically resigns, are ones most of us picked anyhow. Same with I stuck to it and predicted Verlander to resign with the Astros and Abreu to resign with the white six despite initial reports. I went with my gut even if it went against the news. Im already 0/1 on those. Probably 0/2. But resigns are “freebies” in cases like kershaw because where else was he really going to go? Besides a small chance if the rangers
Boo bring back freebies I’m not gonna win again now
I mean, most people even with the freebies, weren’t likely going to win. But some of us, especially any of us that just chose those safe bets to begin with, are now going to end up with like maybe a point or two, if lucky, instead of the 5 or so we could’ve had. I don’t have any expectations to win, but I’d still like to be able to say some of my guesses got me points, rather than getting pretty much nothing.
For the record though, I am a salty person at times. And this will be reflected in my enjoyment of the contest which loses a significant amount of fun if you just don’t get any points.
What you’re saying is, “It;s even more humiliating now.” And I would agree.
Everyone is scared of signing with the Cubs because they know Matt Mervis is going to snatch it from under them.
“If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.”
Why is this being reneged on?
Probably because they noticed a vast majority (myself included) can’t be arsed to go back and change the “freebies” or can’t even remember what team we actually picked, if right or wrong etc.
It’s for fun. There’s no 7figure reward
I see this as a win for the contest. Although I saw someone say it should be held earlier and “close” earlier so no freebies or arguing is required. Probably a great idea
Because I changed my mind and decided “no freebies” is better. I was mostly doing freebies because A) I thought it would be hard to remove the six players (I was wrong, it was easy and B) we’ve always done it this way.
Yeah, again, if you can go in and remove, you should be able to go in and give at least partial credit to those who didn’t have to change their picks
Something tells me a few of the MLBTR guys didn’t go in and change their “freebies” and this is why they are reneging on that part.
Will those freebies make a difference? No, as the majority of us changed them. But it still seems awfully shady to just take those away when you said, in the post, that they would count.
It would certainly be cool if they elaborated a bit as to why the sudden change. I think a lot of people are going to be sorely surprised.
Maybe this is just how the internet is, but I don’t know why you’re assuming some sinister motive. Have I done a bunch of shady stuff in the 17 years MLBTR has been around?
Your logic doesn’t even make sense – for the handful of people looking up the MLBTR staff picks, if one of us had the Dodgers for Rafael Montero instead of the Astros, why would I care? Our writers don’t get exceptions for the contest, aren’t eligible to win the money, and often don’t do particularly well in it. Those facts have been well-known for years for anyone caring to look it up.
So what purpose is served by removing those freebies, especially when, for years, you’ve counted them? As many have said, there is a certain edge for many who pay attention and go back to edit their picks before the deadline. Others don’t.
You may not like that some assume a nefarious motive behind the decision, but to do so without explanation and then defend it with something as simple as “I changed my mind” (something we all know).
At the end of your day, it’s your site. It’s your contest. No one spent money on the contest, so I’m not going to assume some moral issue onto MLBTR, but the timing was odd. And I don’t think the frustration of others on here is unwarranted.
The better path was to make this year the last year for freebies, since you made it clear that you were allowing them. Make the change the following year, and I don’t think anyone would be too worked up about it.
Fully explained:
mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/free-agent-prediction-c…
Tim — Sure seems like a tempest in a tea cup. Of course I lost 6 picks, likely my only 6 correct picks, but I’m just going to have to put my head down and fight on.
As far as MLBTR folks not being eligible, yes, obviously.
Fun fact: I used to work for a promotion company that helped manage different contests (much like the ones who ran McDonald’s monopoly, but not that company). One thing companies would often try to do was make up a contestant. Someone who didn’t exist, but conveniently won the contest. This allowed them to not actually have to pay out the prize, as there wouldn’t be a real person making a stink when the company failed to pay.
I’m not saying MLBTR does this, but how freaking difficult is it to create a few fake contestants, fill out some predictions, and then realize, after the entry deadline passed that you didn’t go in and change the picks, so now you’re 5-6 picks behind?
Acting like there’s nothing to gain because they aren’t eligible to win means nothing.
This is just such a weird, cynical viewpoint. You’re right: I could run a fake contest if I wanted to, and not have to pay out the prize money. Why I would want to do that, I can’t fathom. The contest doesn’t drive traffic or bring in revenue. I created it because I thought it’d be cool and fun.
There’s prize money?
Tim — Like I said, a tempest, a very very small one.
Melchez17 — Oooh, so now you’re interested?
“I Like Money” – Frito
Not sure if your reply was to me or not Tim. I certainly don’t think there is a “sinister” reason haha. Maybe you thought thats what I meant by “people will be sorely surprised.” I was meaning people are going to be surprised because of the switch is all. Appreciate you even elaborating as much as you did about it on the leaderboard post.
I definitely didn’t read the whole post and saw all the names that are being omitted without realizing that’s why they were listed, and I looked back at my predictions and I had them all correct. I thought I was the smartest man alive… and then I read that those were all the ones that signed before the contest began.
RyanD, that gave me the first good chuckle of the day!!! Smartest man alive hahahaha
#bringbackfreebies or we riot @anthony Franco @steve Adam @darrag mcondald @mark polish @tim dierkes
So by Riot, you mean destroy your basement in protest? Encourage others to defile their own property in protest of Freebies!!!
Man if only this kind of enthusiasm could be had to help homelessness and hungry children
Was going to fly out to SanDiego to get a ground level feel on the market for my mlbtr posts but it’s being held at a Marriott and my reputation would take a beating if I was caught anywhere near a lower middle class hotel chain
Fantasy posting league. Can’t beat it.
I’m happy you made that change because I never got the email. I reported it but nobody contacted me about it.
As irony has it, it may come down to Luke Voit or Josh Bell as the Padres options
Maybe they can trade for Hosmer, since they’re already paying his salary anyway.
Nah..there are others people are forgetting..personally, I’d be fine with a Justin Turner/Drury combo at 1st and DH..Or..if they’re really in on Bogearts, put him at 2nd, and Cronenworth goes to 1st.
Voit was a fan favorite with the Padres. The commentator booth loved him, too. I was sorry to see him go in the first place and would love to see him return.
Just because of the “chest salad” as Mud called it..As far as production? He was trash..Watched every game, and he only seemed to do damage in blowouts. Hard pass.
Bad decision on removing the already signed ones. Why do that? It serves no purpose. Stop making such stupid decisions Tim.
Luke Voit is Adroit
Yeah it’s a free site. So yeah we can’t complain. And yeah you can run it how you want and all…But why waste our time with a bait and switch? It’s a bad look for a site that prides itself on it’s reputation.
I mean, how much time was actually wasted here?
Big picture, the contest is about seeing who can best predict where free agents sign, before they sign. Always has been. Removing freebies aligns with that.
Except some of us did predict those players before they signed
I baked cookies for every one of you.
I very much would like some fresh baked cookies. Do you have a shipping plan?
Me too!
Chocolate Chip?
So many tears about “freebies” in a free contest. I know it’s the internet, but please just stop complaining about everything. Get some fresh air. Relax. You’ll be fine without your silly freebies.
pc01, my goodness you sound like you are at your wits end..
I am hoping the Phillies sign Trea Turner, and the Giants sign Aaron Judge. Then we could possibly see a bidding war between the Yankees and the Dodgers for Carlos Correa. The hypocrisy would be laughably epic.
Yankees will go with Peraza and put their money elsewhere.
It is called a free agent predictions contest. The freebies weren’t predicted nor free agents at the beginning of the contest. So it makes sense