With more offseason deadlines on the horizon, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Qualifying offer, Rule 5 deadlines likely to spur movement
Two major offseason deadlines are coming tomorrow, which will likely be the focus of much of the offseason movement that happens today. Qualifying offer recipients must accept or reject the QO by 4pm EST tomorrow, and 40-man rosters must be set ahead of the Rule 5 Draft by 6pm EST tomorrow. The QO deadline could certainly see some recipients with less expected earning power, such as Joc Pederson or Martin Perez, either accept the QO or negotiate a multi-year deal with their previous team — perhaps after initially accepting, as Jose Abreu did during the 2019-20 offseason. While the names weighing the QO might garner more attention, it’s the Rule 5 deadline that will lead to more immediate action. Teams need to make room on their 40-man rosters for any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft, which will require adding them to the 40-man roster. That forthcoming wave of additions will lead to a slew of players being designated for assignment, placed on waivers and perhaps traded, as teams create space on the fringes of their roster. This could also lead to some early non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players, as the Nov. 18 non-tender deadline is quickly approaching, too. As Mark Polishuk noted last night, the Rays figure to be one of the most proactive teams in terms of clearing up their 40-man roster in the coming days, having already shipped first baseman Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh last week.
2. Montero contract provides another data point on the relief market
In Friday’s Opener, I discussed the surprisingly strong relief market that relief pitchers have found this offseason, and how it could translate to the other relievers on the market. Rafael Montero indeed secured a third year on his new contract with the Astros, as predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, but his $34.5MM guarantee handily exceeded expectations. If that amount doesn’t seem particularly striking to you, consider righty Kendall Graveman, another former Astros/Mariners setup man, signed a three-year $24MM deal last winter despite being a year younger at the time of signing. Montero stands as a third pricey relief re-signing, to go with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez.
3. How aggressive will the Orioles be this offseason?
Orioles general manager Mike Elias pledged in August that payroll will rise in 2023 — though it’d be hard for it to decline much over its 2022 levels — which prompted many O’s fans to dream of marquee free-agent splashes as the team emerges from its rebuild. Over the weekend, however, Elias stated that the Orioles will not “go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” which casts doubt on whether the team will jump right into the deep end of the free-agent pool. At present, John Means’ $2.975MM salary is the only guarantee on the Orioles’ books, though between arbitration projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster, they project for a total of about $41MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s ample space for multiple additions to the payroll, then, be it via free agency or perhaps by way of acquiring an established veteran in exchange for some minor league talent. With an impressive young core featuring the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — plus righty Grayson Rodriguez and several more top prospects looming — the Orioles appear on the cusp of a return to contention — if they can make the right moves to supplement that group. With so much payroll space available and a deep farm from which to trade for Major League talent, they’re one of the most fascinating clubs of the offseason.
King Floch
The Orioles could sign Judge and deGrom and still be well shy of their franchise record payrolls from the 2010s.
They won’t, obviously, but they can certainly make significant, meaningful moves without maxing out their credit card in a single offseason.
JockStrap
Right! Overpay on injuries.
gbs42
JockStrap, your reading comprehension skills need some work.
JockStrap
congrats! seems you made it through well.
Dustyslambchops23
For this year, but they have a lot of young players who are going to be extension candidates early on. They aren’t just going to hand out money now because they have payroll flexibility.
King Floch
I agree that they shouldn’t be spending just for the sake of spending, and that young guys like Adley and Gunnar should be high priority extension candidates, but they could absolutely add a few pieces in free agency that would help in the near-term without bogging down the payroll for years on end. Chris Bassitt and JD Martinez, for example.
Trey Buchet
Subtract Chris Davis from history.
JockStrap
Bring back Chris Davis!
King Floch
It’s really a shame how badly Chris Davis’s last few years worked out because people forget just how much of a beast he was at his peak. The guy posted a 130 OPS+ and hit almost 200 HRs over a 5 year period from 2012-2016.
Yankee Clipper
It also shows how PEDs do in fact help performance because once he stopped, he was finished.
King Floch
I mean, I guess you can consider ADHD drugs a PED if you want.
Yankee Clipper
They are banned for a reason, presumably. But, he had two significant outliers…. It’s not unreasonable that he was on more…supplementation(?).
JoeBrady
But, he had two significant outliers….
==============================
I agree that he was more likely than not on PEDs, but that outlier concept applies to others as well. And oddly enough, I am not considering Judge.
King Floch
I don’t know if it is still the case, but MLB allowed exemptions for ADHD prescriptions (which can be a drug of abuse) at one point, Davis got in trouble for using it after his previous exemption expired. As for him using more traditional PEDs, that is purely speculation on your part. He was a huge, powerful guy coming out of high school whose poor plate discipline was really the only thing holding him back, and was what caused Texas to eventually give up on him and trade him to the Orioles for a win-now piece for their 2011 playoff push (Koji Uehara). The power potential was never in doubt though.
Also, as an aside, it’s kind of weird to see a Yankees fan of all people complaining about PED usage considering how many Yankees stars are known roiders and how much of their success in the 90s and 00s is at least partially the result of cheating- A-Rod, Giambi, Petitte, Cano, Sheffield, Canseco, Clemens, Knoblauch, Melky, and probably another dozen or so that I’m missing.
Ra
Yeah, after he got popped for Adderall (after his agent failed to get his TUE approved again), he started taking Vyvanse and he looked asleep on his feet.
Yankee Clipper
“it’s kind of weird to see a Yankees fan of all people complaining about PED usage”
Well: A) I wasn’t complaining.
B) What does Davis using/not using have to do with any unnamed random Yankees player who’s not named in the conversation?
C) If MLB banned amphetamines for performance enhancement, I’d call it a PED, but you may sugar coat it however you want to.
cbssports.com/general/news/adderall-the-new-drug-o…
Yankee Clipper
Joe, he was on PEDs though. Amphetamines, Ritalin, or whatever Davis says he took is besides the point. It’s like “Ringworm Cream” all over again. He tested positive for Amphetamines. It was not legal at the time he took it. He gained an advantage from taking it. He had two fantastic seasons while taking it. Then he tanked really, really bad. .
King Floch
I’m simply saying that if my name and profile pic were repping a franchise as synonymous with PED usage and cheating as the Yankees, I wouldn’t be running around calling other people PED users and cheaters. That’s all.
Yankee Clipper
I also like how you just lumped all those guys in there whether they used before or after the Yankees. I guess facts really don’t matter.
Nonetheless, your assessment that a Yankee fan’s moral foundation must align with his team’s past player’s actions is seriously disillusioned. But, if that’s the case, you must be beholden to all past actions of every player on your team’s roster, to include drug distribution, drug possession, assault, etc, etc. That argument premise works both ways.
Also, you forgot to mention everyone else in the league that was on PEDs during that time (by the way they were legal then too).
Yankee Clipper
I pointed out that he used PEDs. It’s a baseball website and literally every team (obviously yours too) had PED users.
You say Yankees are synonymous with PEDs. I say they are synonymous with winning. When you ask people about the Yankees they talk about Jeter and championships. Only the disingenuous ones say that cheating is most associated.
And, cheating? Synonymous with cheating? Uh, nice try. Gas lighting is cute. Like the O’s.
King Floch
The Adderall issue is what it is- he tested positive for it after his MLB-approved exemption expired and he was rightly suspended for it. That is not up for debate.
OTOH, Davis has never been tied to steroid usage in any way but you chose to accuse him of it for some reason anyway, which opened yourself up having the litany of Yankees confirmed as roiders over the years thrown back in your face.
J leathal86
Sounds like another disgruntled Yankees fan that expected them to win it all again this year which has been oh so wrong lately
Yankee Clipper
No, I never said steroids. you just choose to change narratives to suit your obvious hyperbolic writing. I said “PEDs.” I wrote it multiple times. He tested positive for “Amphetamines,” NOT Adderall. He said it was Adderall. There’s a difference, which you conveniently ignore, to then insult me when I merely made an observation.
So, don’t open yourself up to criticism when you insult others with unwarranted, unsubstantiated, and incoherent responses.
Amphetamines=PEDs.
Oh, and the Yankee Clipper moniker actually represents, arguably, the most professional baseball player of his (or any) era. But, you clearly don’t realize that and simply see, Yankee, then jump to conclusions, which is your nature.
Yankee Clipper
Okay, another moron who doesn’t read the thread. Sounds like you like to jump in halfway through stuff. I commented on Davis’ HR seasons when he used PEDs. Be dismissive if you want to. It doesn’t change the facts, JLethal. It’s comical just how morally equivalent you all are – which is exactly why society is the way it is. You just excuse and blame, excuse and blame.
You couldn’t have an honest discussion if your lives depended on it.
dpsmith22
Wrong. you get a free pass. He got caught 2x and that’s why he is a cl fool.
Yankee Clipper
Oh, JLethal, talk about disgruntled. Look at the lot of you. Why don’t you try to get it down to $20MM this year for your roster? Maybe you can finish last in all of MLB?
Perhaps don’t throw stones from your thin glass house……
JoeBrady
Davis has never been tied to steroid usage in any way
======================================
Can we at least agree that he looks suspicious? He had 47 HRs in his walk year, got his contract, hit 38 in his first year after stopping, and then 26 when the PEDs were out of his system.
It’s like Brady Anderson. I look for unexplained, one-off events, that are conveniently timed. Or Giambi, when he hit 61 HRs in about 600 ABs between last 2005-early 2006.
Even today, I look at Judge and think it’s high, but not too much off of his 2017 pace. But I look at Carpenter, and see he was on pace for 70 HR/600 ABs, when he hit 17/600 over the previous three seasons, at age 36, when he was unemployed, and I have to be suspicious.
King Floch
”It’s not unreasonable that he was on more…supplementation(?).”
Every baseball fan who was around during the steroid era knows that ”supplements” is a euphemism for steroids, due to the fact that so many players have tried to pass off positive tests as “tainted supplements.“ You can try to walk it back now but the implication was clear.
dpsmith22
YC – Welcome to America where common sense has ‘left the building’. Proven fact – see 11/3
Yankee Clipper
You seriously don’t get it, man.
Amphetamines!!!!! Or other PEDs
If I wanted to say “steroids” I would have. These guys don’t inject steroids. The supplementa they use are Ring Worm cream, and Adderall, and…. Supplemental drinks. They just happen to contain banned substances. Look back at any of the stories for the guys getting caught. Most cite some medication or supplement that they “didn’t realize” had a banned substance.
You are impossible. And clearly stubborn.
Unclemike1526
Well said DP. Arguing about steroids in this age is pointless. Vomiting stats about stuff that happened 20 years ago is really pointless. If you want to argue about if fine. It’s a dead subject. The idiots who take them now and get caught right away like Marte and Tatis and try to blame it on supplements is an idiot. Every team has somebody you can call and ask them if you should take something or not so there’s really no excuse anymore. Twenty years ago is over. Let it Go.
King Floch
”Can we at least agree that he looks suspicious?“
Not really, he was always a prodigious HR hitter from the very moment he was drafted by Texas and “hit nothing but HRs all day, every day” was the organizational philosophy of the Orioles at the time.
Yankee Clipper
Mike: my comment had nothing to do with the moral basis for him using. I was simply opining based on the fact that people frequently write on this site PEDs don’t make you a better player. He’s proof they do. That was my only intention, because the writer brought his name up.
He went off the deep end defending him, bringing up Yankees players and such. Goodness, people on here are so defensive.
rememberthecoop
Someone go wake up the King – he was on much more than that!!
rememberthecoop
Well, in addition to PEDs, don’t forget you have to factor in the cheating that happened with many clubs before the Astros got caught. That would help explain guys like Bellinger, as one example.
rememberthecoop
Wait – you won’t admit to Davis using but you are more than willing to point out Yankees players like that. Interesting. (I’m not a Yanks fan btw).
rememberthecoop
Damn you’re dealing with fools today. They are like parents who refuse to admit their kids are doing something bad – mybchild could never do something like that!!
King Floch
If you want to classify Adderall as a PED, sure, he took PEDs.
Pads Fans
He tested positive for Adderall, a drug he took long before he was a major league player or even a college player, a drug he had a taken legally while playing in MLB, and a drug that his agent failed to apply for his exemption to be extended.
Davis was not cheating or using Adderall as a PED. He was using it because he has ADHD and like millions of Americans its the only thing that allows their brains to work in a somewhat rational manner.
Davis also had one spectacularly bad season while using it that came in the middle of two great seasons.
The Yankees that used PED were using steroids and HGH. They knew they were cheating and didn’t do it for any other reason than to gain a competitive advantage.
Trying to compare Davis to the Yankees PED cheats of the 1990s and early 2000s is pathetic.
Pads Fans
About to say goodbye to you YC. YOU are the one making accusations. Ones you can’t back up and ones that are not backed up by the facts.
Either you need to take it like a man when people call you out or STFU.
Pads Fans
We know that the Yankees were cheating in that same way from 2015-2017 because a former Yankees player brought the system with him to Houston.
Yankee Clipper
Pads: I did not compare him to Yankees players – he did.
I also provided a link to back up my assertion for his testing positive for Amphetamines, not Adderall. Davis says Adderall, test is Amphetamines.
cbssports.com/mlb/news/chris-davis-suspended-25-ga…
I’m done going back and forth. I’ve refrained from resorting to insults. Why must you insult?
But, since you think you can come here, Pads, and try to state a case INCORRECTLY, because you can’t or didn’t read, I’ll make it easy for you & me.
Pads Fans
YC. Muted.
Hotstovemelts
Hahaha ohhh no…. Pads fan used the muted button because he cant actually have a disagreement like an adult… he just hits the mute button lol. He is like Samuel… cant deal with being called out. Yankee Clipper… you’re good bro.. he is a crybaby clown.
Hotstovemelts
Look Pads fan…. make your argument but dont be a crybaby clown and mute people… and definitely dont tell anyone to stfu when it’s you that needs to stfu! Cant stand people that act like you… I’ll just mute you!! Boohoo!
Ra
Perfectly well explained, King Floch. Thank you
Ra
…and the Yankees cheating scandal.
Ra
Adderall IS an amphetamine! “Common prescription amphetamines include amphetamine and dextroamphetamine (Adderall®).” Stop trying to claim Davis was shooting up cocaine or something. Dude was taking adderall for which he had previously received a therapeutic exemption for.
Until you have one iota of evidence he did any drug other than adderall, you are lying and are way out of line. Step off the empty, false allegations or put up. Because right now, it looks like you are so committed to an agenda that you will do anything including lie through your teeth to try to support it. Are you willing to be called out as a LIAR?
Ra
You are wrong again. Siince you are so beholden to your agenda of ADHD drugs = amphetamines = PEDs, Davis used Vyvanse, which is an amphetamine just like the adderall was.
And we do not call ADHD drugs PEDs in idiomatic English.
Ra
Davis declined while he was using Vyvanse. So if you’re claiming that is the PED, it was never “out of his system.”
Ra
Two “outliers” plus three seasons of 110+ OPS+. So five productive seasons. But who is counting? Counting would damage the narrative.
Yankee Clipper
RA, Just because Adderall is an Amphetamine does not mean that was what he was taking.
You are {assuming} that’s what he was taking. Choosing to believe. That’s no different than the litany of people that claim the substances within whatever medications they were taking made them test positive, ie Ring Worm cream.
So, if anyone is the liar…… it’s the guy claiming to know what the Amphetamine was. Stop trying to defend an indefensible point. He was suspended for 25 games for AMPHETAMINES, which are illegal. That is what I stated, those are well known facts, and Amphetamines are PEDs. Show proof it was Adderall and I’ll admit I’m wrong. Otherwise, don’t make a fool out of yourself.
Yankee Clipper
If you’re implying I said ADHD drugs = PEDs you can’t read and need Hooked on Phonics. Amphetamines are, however, and that’s readily available information, including in the LINK I POSTED WITH THE ARTICLE FOR THE 25 game suspension for Davis.
I’m not sure if you’re intentionally misrepresenting facts or just trying to be contrarian, but your failing to succeed in your argument.
amanateeamongmen
Bring back Chris Davis’ talent!
Buff Barnacles
Agreed. Chris Carter is still mashing away down in Mexico; he’d make a great fit. What doesn’t come up with all this Chris Davis talk is that his 23M owed came off the books for this offseason.
Unclemike1526
Seems odd to me that the Orioles just got out from Salary Cap Hell and would be willing to jump right back in. I highly doubt they’ll be players for Judge and they seem to be building the right way. If all their young players pan out they should save their money to sign them long term. Just because you have a ton of money, Doesn’t mean you have to throw it around, It usually comes back to bite you in the end.
Yankee Clipper
I agree. I think they go with a top SS, if anything, in the top tier. But certainly not Judge. Moreover, as you stated, they have such a crop of youth, shopping now in the top of the market may not be the wisest long-term approach.
Unclemike1526
A top SS might be a tough pull. I think the Cubs and Dodgers are the main players for Correa especially if Turner walks. Turner does prefer to play on the East Coast, But I think it will be hard for the Orioles to outbid the other East Coast teams and he’s going to be Pricey. Boegarts might be the fall back option.
But will he go there? He’ll have other options, not the least will be going back to the Red Sox. If Swanson doesn’t sign with the Braves and the Cubs don’t get anybody else He could go to Chicago as his GF is a player on the Red Stars and the Womens National Soccer Team. Might not matter in the end, But the Orioles certainly have the prospect depth to trade for someones SS if nothing else, I think that’ll end up happening.
King Floch
They don’t even really need a SS. In addition to Jorge Mateo, who led the AL in SBs and won Fielding Bible’s award for AL SS last year, they have 3 or 4 top 100 SS prospects, including arguably the top overall prospect, depending on which list you prefer: Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Joey Ortiz, and Jordan Westburg.
Gunnar already debuted and hit well in his first 100+ MLB ABs and both Ortiz and Westburg finished 2022 strong at AAA, and Holliday will probably move pretty quickly through the system after beating up the competition in the low minors last year.
Wagner>Cobb
I’m not convinced they go for a SS. Jorge Mateo had a really good year and is an excellent defender. I think an established starter makes sense if they can add one. Not one of the top tier dudes, but maybe a second tier arm.
rememberthecoop
Prospects = suspects
Ra
They have 3 top tier SS on the come, not counting Mateo who can pick it. Can’t see any fit with Correa. And no need to commit to Trea or Xander, for that matter.
Unclemike1526
If Turner leaves the Dodgers it’s gonna be fun seeing Friedman and Hoyer battling over Correa and seeing who bails when. I’d rather have Turner personally, But it sounds like he’s more interested in Location than money. Interesting concept. It will also be interesting to see if Hoerner then becomes a trade chip if they get Correa. A lot of teams would be in on Hoerner if the Cubs decide not to waste him at 2nd base. But he’d be great backup option and they have Morel who could play 2nd and Madrigal is still hanging around so we can see if he can run to any base without pulling his groin and my mind. LOL
JoeBrady
To be honest, I am not sure why a SS is even a conversation piece. Under normal conditions, why would anyone get rid of a 3.4 bWAR SS, with three years of control left, to sign a $25M SS?
If you were the LAD or NYM, with almost unlimited payroll, you probably still shouldn’t do it, but it is at least plausible. But with a team that might add another $34M in payroll, spending most of it to replace a perfectly decent SS, would be insane.
Unclemike1526
Because of the new ” No shifting rules” Range in the middle infield is a priority. While Hoerner is a great SS the Cubs shifted all the time and made him better than he was range wise. They won’t be able to do that anymore.
Astrosfn1979
It would be hysterical if Correa ends up on the Dodgers after all the bad blood.
There would be a cage match if they keep Bellinger !!
MacGromit
Fans and even teammates can stomach a lot of yuck for a ring and a parade.
MacGromit
I’m really hoping the O’s are fanning the SS rumors to drive the market price up to hamstring other teams. I agree that maybe they should look towards improving offense at LF (Hayes has really disappointed) and platooning at 1B. Then spend the real dollars some solid starters (2). I realize that Rodon and Bassitt would be a pipedream but their on the wishlist.
rememberthecoop
Hoyer? I’ll believe it when I see it. Seems the Cubs are always mentioned but seldom deliver. Maybe if they take a short-term, high AAV deal, which Correa is unlikely to do again.
rememberthecoop
Agreed. But Bellinis thr last guy who should be complaining about cheating.
Wagner>Cobb
Yeah, I’m hoping the Cubs commit to Hoerner. He’s quality on both sides of the ball.
Ghost Pepper
Put your seatbelts on people, it’s going to be a tremendous ride!
sliderwithcheeze
As cliche as it sounds, the Orioles are the type of team that no one wants to face in the playoffs. Now, if they could just there…
HalosHeavenJJ
I’d think with their farm system the Orioles might look more towards 2 and 3 year deals.
Add talent that won’t block future talent. Add contracts that won’t impact what will be massive arbitration raises.
thickiedon
The Montero contract seems like a drastic overpay (such as the Neris deal) by the Astros and bad strategy. Graveman had a better track record going into FA. Montero had a great year and will continue his success. I figured he’d sign as another team’s closer.
The Astros have an elite bullpen. What are they expecting to pay Abreu, Stanek or one their spot starters in the future?
Letting Montero walk and get a similar contract to close elsewhere keeps the expected wages lower for the team’s bullpen. Money saved could be allocated towards current needs: resigning JV, 1B/OF/DH, backup C, possible CF and IF depth.
coldgoldenfalstaff
Montero was lights out during the season and postseason and was better than Graveman in high leverage situations. You hold onto pitchers like that and not an overpay when seeing how the Astros have fixed so many pitchers with their video and data tools.
Cincyfan85
If I were the Orioles, I’d try to trade Santander and a mid-tier prospect or two for someone like Pablo Lopez. Then I would sign someone like Taillon or Eovaldi. The goal would be to bring some stability to the the pitching staff. Then try to sign someone like Adam Duvall, Mitch Haniger, or maybe even Michael Conforto. A veteran presence. Lastly, I’d try to sign a relief pitcher who is decent, but not going to take 3 years. Some like Andrew Chafin with a similar contract as he signed with Detroit (2 years with opt out).
King Floch
I’d rather move Mountcastle or Hays for Lopez and try to sign Bassitt or Walker for the rotation and then Bell for the lineup, but this is generally what I hope our offseason looks like- 2 solid SPs and a dependable bat. We could definitely do a lot worse than Lopez, Taillon, and Haniger for next year though.
solaris602
Totally agree. Bassitt would be a perfect rotation addition on a 3-year deal that won’t require an overpay. Taillon is OK, but when you strip away the NY hype, he’s a fairly average back of the rotation arm. Haniger will have to take a 1-year incentive-laden pillow contract just to prove he can stay healthy. Not sure the O’s are a fit for him.
King Floch
Yeah, Haniger would probably split time at DH and RF with most of his starts coming at the former unless Adley needs a partial rest day, and he probably would prefer a full time OF gig to maximize his earning potential after a hypothetical bounceback year in 2023. JDM is another guy who could fill the “DH unless Adley needs a DH day” role though.
And Bassitt is definitely my top choice among SPs they could/would realistically sign. He’s already a very good pitcher and having the Orioles’ excellent IF defense (assuming the current Gunner 3B, Mateo SS, Urias 2B configuration) and cavernous new LF behind him should only help make him even better. Same goes for Taillon or any other SPs they bring in.
Wagner>Cobb
I’d prioritize RH speed in the lineup and LH power. RH power dies in that park, but fast runners could make good use of all that space.
Thornton Mellon
The Orioles need 2 guys who are at least #3 starter caliber or above. I think if Means comes back and does anything at all in 2023 it should be looked at as a bonus. I would consider Lyles cheaper to be a #5 starter but nothing more.
They need at least one high-power bat…2 if they have to trade Santander to get some pitching. I think Santander just had his career year and is a “sell high” candidate.
It was clear down the stretch that the Orioles just lacked the horses to cross that threshold from a .500 team to a 90 win team. These moves….along with continued development from the prospects/young guys already named…put them there.
stanton100
Jean Segura? 2/3 years?