With more offseason deadlines on the horizon, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Qualifying offer, Rule 5 deadlines likely to spur movement
Two major offseason deadlines are coming tomorrow, which will likely be the focus of much of the offseason movement that happens today. Qualifying offer recipients must accept or reject the QO by 4pm EST tomorrow, and 40-man rosters must be set ahead of the Rule 5 Draft by 6pm EST tomorrow. The QO deadline could certainly see some recipients with less expected earning power, such as Joc Pederson or Martin Perez, either accept the QO or negotiate a multi-year deal with their previous team — perhaps after initially accepting, as Jose Abreu did during the 2019-20 offseason. While the names weighing the QO might garner more attention, it’s the Rule 5 deadline that will lead to more immediate action. Teams need to make room on their 40-man rosters for any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft, which will require adding them to the 40-man roster. That forthcoming wave of additions will lead to a slew of players being designated for assignment, placed on waivers and perhaps traded, as teams create space on the fringes of their roster. This could also lead to some early non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players, as the Nov. 18 non-tender deadline is quickly approaching, too. As Mark Polishuk noted last night, the Rays figure to be one of the most proactive teams in terms of clearing up their 40-man roster in the coming days, having already shipped first baseman Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh last week.
2. Montero contract provides another data point on the relief market
In Friday’s Opener, I discussed the surprisingly strong relief market that relief pitchers have found this offseason, and how it could translate to the other relievers on the market. Rafael Montero indeed secured a third year on his new contract with the Astros, as predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, but his $34.5MM guarantee handily exceeded expectations. If that amount doesn’t seem particularly striking to you, consider righty Kendall Graveman, another former Astros/Mariners setup man, signed a three-year $24MM deal last winter despite being a year younger at the time of signing. Montero stands as a third pricey relief re-signing, to go with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez.
3. How aggressive will the Orioles be this offseason?
Orioles general manager Mike Elias pledged in August that payroll will rise in 2023 — though it’d be hard for it to decline much over its 2022 levels — which prompted many O’s fans to dream of marquee free-agent splashes as the team emerges from its rebuild. Over the weekend, however, Elias stated that the Orioles will not “go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” which casts doubt on whether the team will jump right into the deep end of the free-agent pool. At present, John Means’ $2.975MM salary is the only guarantee on the Orioles’ books, though between arbitration projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster, they project for a total of about $41MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s ample space for multiple additions to the payroll, then, be it via free agency or perhaps by way of acquiring an established veteran in exchange for some minor league talent. With an impressive young core featuring the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — plus righty Grayson Rodriguez and several more top prospects looming — the Orioles appear on the cusp of a return to contention — if they can make the right moves to supplement that group. With so much payroll space available and a deep farm from which to trade for Major League talent, they’re one of the most fascinating clubs of the offseason.
King Floch
The Orioles could sign Judge and deGrom and still be well shy of their franchise record payrolls from the 2010s.
They won’t, obviously, but they can certainly make significant, meaningful moves without maxing out their credit card in a single offseason.
JockStrap
Right! Overpay on injuries.
gbs42
JockStrap, your reading comprehension skills need some work.
JockStrap
congrats! seems you made it through well.
Dustyslambchops23
For this year, but they have a lot of young players who are going to be extension candidates early on. They aren’t just going to hand out money now because they have payroll flexibility.
King Floch
I agree that they shouldn’t be spending just for the sake of spending, and that young guys like Adley and Gunnar should be high priority extension candidates, but they could absolutely add a few pieces in free agency that would help in the near-term without bogging down the payroll for years on end. Chris Bassitt and JD Martinez, for example.
Trey Buchet
Subtract Chris Davis from history.
JockStrap
Bring back Chris Davis!
Unclemike1525
Seems odd to me that the Orioles just got out from Salary Cap Hell and would be willing to jump right back in. I highly doubt they’ll be players for Judge and they seem to be building the right way. If all their young players pan out they should save their money to sign them long term. Just because you have a ton of money, Doesn’t mean you have to throw it around, It usually comes back to bite you in the end.
Yankee Clipper
I agree. I think they go with a top SS, if anything, in the top tier. But certainly not Judge. Moreover, as you stated, they have such a crop of youth, shopping now in the top of the market may not be the wisest long-term approach.
Unclemike1525
A top SS might be a tough pull. I think the Cubs and Dodgers are the main players for Correa especially if Turner walks. Turner does prefer to play on the East Coast, But I think it will be hard for the Orioles to outbid the other East Coast teams and he’s going to be Pricey. Boegarts might be the fall back option.
But will he go there? He’ll have other options, not the least will be going back to the Red Sox. If Swanson doesn’t sign with the Braves and the Cubs don’t get anybody else He could go to Chicago as his GF is a player on the Red Stars and the Womens National Soccer Team. Might not matter in the end, But the Orioles certainly have the prospect depth to trade for someones SS if nothing else, I think that’ll end up happening.
King Floch
They don’t even really need a SS. In addition to Jorge Mateo, who led the AL in SBs and won Fielding Bible’s award for AL SS last year, they have 3 or 4 top 100 SS prospects, including arguably the top overall prospect, depending on which list you prefer: Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Joey Ortiz, and Jordan Westburg.
Gunnar already debuted and hit well in his first 100+ MLB ABs and both Ortiz and Westburg finished 2022 strong at AAA, and Holliday will probably move pretty quickly through the system after beating up the competition in the low minors last year.
Wagner>Cobb
I’m not convinced they go for a SS. Jorge Mateo had a really good year and is an excellent defender. I think an established starter makes sense if they can add one. Not one of the top tier dudes, but maybe a second tier arm.
rememberthecoop
Prospects = suspects
Ra
They have 3 top tier SS on the come, not counting Mateo who can pick it. Can’t see any fit with Correa. And no need to commit to Trea or Xander, for that matter.
Unclemike1525
If Turner leaves the Dodgers it’s gonna be fun seeing Friedman and Hoyer battling over Correa and seeing who bails when. I’d rather have Turner personally, But it sounds like he’s more interested in Location than money. Interesting concept. It will also be interesting to see if Hoerner then becomes a trade chip if they get Correa. A lot of teams would be in on Hoerner if the Cubs decide not to waste him at 2nd base. But he’d be great backup option and they have Morel who could play 2nd and Madrigal is still hanging around so we can see if he can run to any base without pulling his groin and my mind. LOL
JoeBrady
To be honest, I am not sure why a SS is even a conversation piece. Under normal conditions, why would anyone get rid of a 3.4 bWAR SS, with three years of control left, to sign a $25M SS?
If you were the LAD or NYM, with almost unlimited payroll, you probably still shouldn’t do it, but it is at least plausible. But with a team that might add another $34M in payroll, spending most of it to replace a perfectly decent SS, would be insane.
Unclemike1525
Because of the new ” No shifting rules” Range in the middle infield is a priority. While Hoerner is a great SS the Cubs shifted all the time and made him better than he was range wise. They won’t be able to do that anymore.
Astrosfn1979
It would be hysterical if Correa ends up on the Dodgers after all the bad blood.
There would be a cage match if they keep Bellinger !!
MacGromit
Fans and even teammates can stomach a lot of yuck for a ring and a parade.
MacGromit
I’m really hoping the O’s are fanning the SS rumors to drive the market price up to hamstring other teams. I agree that maybe they should look towards improving offense at LF (Hayes has really disappointed) and platooning at 1B. Then spend the real dollars some solid starters (2). I realize that Rodon and Bassitt would be a pipedream but their on the wishlist.
rememberthecoop
Hoyer? I’ll believe it when I see it. Seems the Cubs are always mentioned but seldom deliver. Maybe if they take a short-term, high AAV deal, which Correa is unlikely to do again.
rememberthecoop
Agreed. But Bellinis thr last guy who should be complaining about cheating.
Wagner>Cobb
Yeah, I’m hoping the Cubs commit to Hoerner. He’s quality on both sides of the ball.
Ghost Pepper
Put your seatbelts on people, it’s going to be a tremendous ride!
sliderwithcheeze
As cliche as it sounds, the Orioles are the type of team that no one wants to face in the playoffs. Now, if they could just there…
HalosHeavenJJ
I’d think with their farm system the Orioles might look more towards 2 and 3 year deals.
Add talent that won’t block future talent. Add contracts that won’t impact what will be massive arbitration raises.
thickiedon
The Montero contract seems like a drastic overpay (such as the Neris deal) by the Astros and bad strategy. Graveman had a better track record going into FA. Montero had a great year and will continue his success. I figured he’d sign as another team’s closer.
The Astros have an elite bullpen. What are they expecting to pay Abreu, Stanek or one their spot starters in the future?
Letting Montero walk and get a similar contract to close elsewhere keeps the expected wages lower for the team’s bullpen. Money saved could be allocated towards current needs: resigning JV, 1B/OF/DH, backup C, possible CF and IF depth.
coldgoldenfalstaff
Montero was lights out during the season and postseason and was better than Graveman in high leverage situations. You hold onto pitchers like that and not an overpay when seeing how the Astros have fixed so many pitchers with their video and data tools.
Cincyfan85
If I were the Orioles, I’d try to trade Santander and a mid-tier prospect or two for someone like Pablo Lopez. Then I would sign someone like Taillon or Eovaldi. The goal would be to bring some stability to the the pitching staff. Then try to sign someone like Adam Duvall, Mitch Haniger, or maybe even Michael Conforto. A veteran presence. Lastly, I’d try to sign a relief pitcher who is decent, but not going to take 3 years. Some like Andrew Chafin with a similar contract as he signed with Detroit (2 years with opt out).
King Floch
I’d rather move Mountcastle or Hays for Lopez and try to sign Bassitt or Walker for the rotation and then Bell for the lineup, but this is generally what I hope our offseason looks like- 2 solid SPs and a dependable bat. We could definitely do a lot worse than Lopez, Taillon, and Haniger for next year though.
solaris602
Totally agree. Bassitt would be a perfect rotation addition on a 3-year deal that won’t require an overpay. Taillon is OK, but when you strip away the NY hype, he’s a fairly average back of the rotation arm. Haniger will have to take a 1-year incentive-laden pillow contract just to prove he can stay healthy. Not sure the O’s are a fit for him.
King Floch
Yeah, Haniger would probably split time at DH and RF with most of his starts coming at the former unless Adley needs a partial rest day, and he probably would prefer a full time OF gig to maximize his earning potential after a hypothetical bounceback year in 2023. JDM is another guy who could fill the “DH unless Adley needs a DH day” role though.
And Bassitt is definitely my top choice among SPs they could/would realistically sign. He’s already a very good pitcher and having the Orioles’ excellent IF defense (assuming the current Gunner 3B, Mateo SS, Urias 2B configuration) and cavernous new LF behind him should only help make him even better. Same goes for Taillon or any other SPs they bring in.
Wagner>Cobb
I’d prioritize RH speed in the lineup and LH power. RH power dies in that park, but fast runners could make good use of all that space.
Thornton Mellon
The Orioles need 2 guys who are at least #3 starter caliber or above. I think if Means comes back and does anything at all in 2023 it should be looked at as a bonus. I would consider Lyles cheaper to be a #5 starter but nothing more.
They need at least one high-power bat…2 if they have to trade Santander to get some pitching. I think Santander just had his career year and is a “sell high” candidate.
It was clear down the stretch that the Orioles just lacked the horses to cross that threshold from a .500 team to a 90 win team. These moves….along with continued development from the prospects/young guys already named…put them there.
stanton100
Jean Segura? 2/3 years?