As the off-season gets underway, much of attention around the Red Sox has been focused on the free agency Xander Bogaerts and the ongoing contract talks with third baseman Rafael Devers, but it Boston is showing early interest in adding pitching this winter. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox are “digging around the pitching market”, and have been linked to Andrew Heaney and Seth Lugo among others. Jon Morosi of MLB Network has more on their interest in pitching, stating they’ve shown interest – alongside the Angels – in starter Tyler Anderson.
Boston does have a reasonable amount of pitching signed for next season, but a most of it comes with major question marks. Chris Sale is owed $27.5MM but has made just eleven starts in the past three years. James Paxton opted into his $4MM player option for next season, but he didn’t pitch at all in 2022. Brayan Bello showed promise in eleven starts in 2022 and could have a bright future, but those were the first eleven starts of his major league career and he’s still raw. The Red Sox are intending to use Garrett Whitlock as a starter in 2023, but he’s pitched better out of the bullpen and made just nine starts this season. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the only dependable option in Boston’s rotation at this stage, so it’s no surprise they’re looking to add pitching.
Anderson has enjoyed something of a late breakout with the Dodgers this past season. He generally checked in as a solid, back of the rotation starter across his first six seasons in the majors with the Rockies, Giants, Pirates and Mariners. With the Dodgers however, he tossed 178 2/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball, easily the best numbers of his career and first since 2016 where his ERA had finished under four. A lot of that was due to restricting the long ball, as Anderson’s HR/9 more than halved from 2021 (1.46 down to 0.71). Anderson did receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, so there’s every chance he accepts that one-year, $19.65MM deal and returns to LA.
Heaney, on the other hand, was not tendered a qualifying offer but also enjoyed his own breakout campaign. He pitched to a 3.10 ERA through 72 2/3 innings as a result of leaning more on his slider and less on his changeup. Those numbers came with a significant increase in strikeout rate, as he posted a 35.5% rate, well above his previous high of 28.9% in 2019. He did miss around three months across two separate IL stints with left shoulder problems, so there are some durability concerns.
Lugo has enjoyed six solid seasons pitching out of the Mets bullpen. He threw 65 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, maintaining a strong walk rate of 6.6% and a solid strikeout rate of 25.4%. While it’s not lights out stuff for a reliever, Lugo does have plenty of value as a durable middle reliever. While there’s a case to be made for any or all of these three pitchers finding their way to Boston this winter, it’s still early and the Red Sox will be casting a wide net in their pursuit of pitching.
On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox appear to be some way off agreeing to a contract extension with Devers. The star third baseman will be a free agent after the 2023 season, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that while there is some optimism towards a deal, the two sides remain far apart. Heyman reports that the Red Sox offered Devers a contract slightly above the ten-year, $212MM deal that Austin Riley received from the Braves, but Devers is seeking more than $300MM in an extension.
Devers had another brilliant season in 2022, mashing 27 home runs and compiling a .295/.358/.521 line in 141 games. His wRC+ mark of 140 was the best of his career, but his previous marks of 133, 108 and 132 show he’s regularly been a superb hitter. Defensively, he improved on 2021 but still graded out with negative numbers per Outs Above Average (-2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6). Given he’s already amassed 18.1 fWAR and will be hitting free agency entering his age-27 season, it’s no surprise Devers is seeking big money. The left-hander would be one of the top free agents available on the open market should the Red Sox fail to lock him in before then.
User 3663041837
Resigning Eovaldi is just around the corner.
Rsox
I’d much rather have Eovaldi back than watch Heaney throw batting practice at Fenway
Rumors2godsears
I see Eovaldi accepting the QO.
deweybelongsinthehall
Hope so. The team failed last year hoping for healthy seasons from pitchers with career injury issues (outside of Wacha). Would stay away from Heaney.
acell10
Eovialdi has been as injury prone as Heaney in his career which is why I would pass on handing him anything but a 1 year deal on short money. Let someone else take the risk that he’ll hold up in his age 34 season
Dorothy_Mantooth
Did the Sox offer Eovaldi the qualifying offer? I haven’t seen anything officially about it. If so, I think he’ll opt out in search of a 3 year deal in the $45 – $54 M range ($15-$18m per year). Maybe year 3 would have to be a vesting option but there are definitely teams willing to give him a multi-year contract and this will probably be his last chance to get one.
Lars MacDonald
It’ll be interesting to see what he does. The qualifying offer is nearly $20 million, so he might want to take it and then look for a multi year deal next year. But, he’s 32 years old and so he’s getting closer to an age where three or four year contracts will be harder to land.
deweybelongsinthehall
The Sox extended it to Bogie and Nate but not to JDM.
JoeBrady
$45 – $54 M range ($15-$18m per year). Maybe year 3 would have to be a vesting option but there are definitely teams willing to give him a multi-year contract
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I wouldn’t mind going this route. Maybe $30M/2 plus a 3rd year innings-based option.
Every pitcher in BB, and every FA has a risk/$$$ factor. The lower the risk, the higher the payday.
acell10
hard pass on that Joe. He hasn’t proven to be healthy over the life of his first contract. Money would be better spent elsewhere.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – I’m very glad you’ve finally seen the light on Eovaldi. It was only a few months ago you were saying you didn’t want to re-sign him at any price or length because he’s “too old”.
Then you advocated giving a much older and more injury-prone pitcher $140M over 3 years!
You’re definitely entertaining, I’ll give you that :O)
JoeBrady
a few months ago you were saying you didn’t want to re-sign him at any price or length because he’s “too old”.
Then you advocated giving a much older and more injury-prone pitcher $140M over 3 years!
=====================================
1-Just for funnsies, show me where I said I wouldn’t sign him at any price. I don’t recall having said that about anything, in my entire life.
2-I’ve been pretty consistent about offering him a QO. If I were okay with paying him $19.65M, does it make any sense that I wouldn’t want him back for less than that?
3-Care to show me where I said I wanted to offer DeGrom $140M/3. It’s possible, but my kick has been $140M/4, with an opt-out after three.
4-So you are comparing the very injury-prone Eovaldi with the less injury-prone DeGrom. DeGrom is the best pitcher in BB when healthy.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – I am all for MLBTR making the comments searchable. Until then, it’s very difficult to find specific comments from months earlier. But yes you absolutely did write the Sox shouldn’t keep Nate because of his age. You didn’t include any qualifier about a dollar amount.
Can you show me a pre-July quote where you said the Sox should offer him a QO?
Even if it was 4 years instead of 3, you’d rather take a $140M risk on a constantly injured pitcher who will be 35 most of next season instead of a $51M risk on a pitcher who will be 33 next season?
Nate has thrown over 290 innings during the past two seasons, Jacob has thrown only 156 innings during the same time span. Tell me again who is more injury prone?
Funny you mention DeGrom is the best when healthy, as the same could be said about Sale. So you’re willing to make the same mistake Dombrowski made when he re-signed Sale?
I’m giving you props for now wanting Nate back, let’s leave it at that ;O)
acell10
FPG a few things: Jacob DeGrom is also significantly better than Nate Eovaldi (not really even debatable ). DeGrom is a 2x cy young award winner and has been dominant pitcher for far longer that Eovaldi over the course of their careers (not just the sample size you find convenient to your argument) DeGrom has been way more reliable. Eovaildi and has pitched more innings despite the fact that Eovaldi broke into the big leagues ahead of DeGrom.
The mistake Dombrowski made with sale was giving him 5 years year extension. 3 at 140 isn’t going to kill the Sox in the long term and I’d take my chances with DeGrom over Sale any day of the week.
Fever Pitch Guy
acel – I certainly am aware deGrom is a much better pitcher than Nate, however that is irrelevant if he’s not healthy enough to pitch.
Also irrelevant is comparing health going back several years. The only thing that matters is current health and risk of injury, which is why I proved Jacob has had a lot more injury issues the past two seasons than Nate.
Let me ask you, if there were no health concerns with deGrom do you think for even one minute the Mets wouldn’t have already locked him up with a new contract? It’s the Mets … money is no object to them, but even they are reluctant to sign him to a longterm deal. Obviously because of health concerns.
As for Sale … SEVEN consecutive years of finishing Top 6 in Cy voting (deGrom finished Top 6 only three times).
2.11 ERA in his last healthy season, and that was pitching in by far the best division in MLB.
308 K’s in 2017 (deGrom never had more than 269 pitching in a weak division and without the DH)
Sale WAS right up there with deGrom in 2018.
JoeBrady
Even if it was 4 years instead of 3, you’d rather take a $140M risk on a constantly injured pitcher who will be 35 most of next season instead of a $51M risk on a pitcher who will be 33 next season?
Nate has thrown over 290 innings during the past two seasons, Jacob has thrown only 156 innings during the same time span. Tell me again who is more injury prone?
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Again, it isn’t close.
DeGrom was injured twice in the past two years. That’s certainly a risk, but I doubt the scapula injury is a l/t risk. And without injuries, you’d be paying twice as much.
But Eovaldi is injured almost every year.
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022
2021 is his only full season since 2014. From 2015-2020, DeGrom is #13 in IPs. I’m not saying that he isn’t an injury risk. All FA SPs are injury risks. But he is likely being marked down 50% to account for his injuries.
Eovaldi, OTOH, is not special. His bWAR in his 4.5 years with us is 7.8, and his ERA+ is 113. That’s good, but DeGrom’s career ERA+ is 155.
JoeBrady
The only thing that matters is current health and risk of injury
====================================
Based on Aug-Sept, DeGrom is much healthier
64 IPs v 28 IPs.
102/8 K/W v 23./6
Eovaldi has back injuries, which I would expect to re-occur. DeGrom had a fractured scapula, which I would not expect to be a recurring issue.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – You conveniently failed to mention the hamstring, back, neck, hip, side, and more recently forearm, elbow, and shoulder injuries that have plagued deGrom since at least 2018.
Call me Google, I’m your friend ;O)
foxsports.com/mlb/jacob-degrom-player-injuries
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – Don’t you think overthrowing can lead to chronic shoulder, elbow and forearm injuries?
The Mets pitching coach certainly thought that about deGrom.
Not sure if you are old enough to remember a guy named Frank Tanana, he was a flamethrower who had to adjust to a much lower velocity … didn’t work out very well. Almost never does when throwers have to convert to becoming pitchers.
“You see the velocity trend up and you see the injuries trend up, so it’s easy to make that correlation and I think there’s some validity to that, right?” Jeremy Hefner, Mets pitching coach, told the Daily News.
acell10
FPG: Joe Brady again basically said what I as going to but let me add that again you’ve cherry picked more data to suit your argument. I like when you compare Sale to DeGrom you’re willing to look beyond the last two years to make your point.
Making decisions based off recency bias and small sample sizes (like you have brought up in other posts) will get you in more trouble.. bottom line is I like almost everyone else would feel the risk is significantly higher with Eovaldi (who is also significantly worse pitcher) Than with DeGrom
Something you again left out in the Cy young voting discussion that in two of three years degrom WON the cy young award.
As Joe Brady said, every pitcher has health concerns Let me ask you this. If DeGrom was so concerned about his health why did he opt out of the last year of his contract? Clearly he knows that either the Mets ore someone else is going to give him a longer term deal.
acell10
and you conveniently leave out of the conversation the two Tommy John surgeries, has had back, elbow, leg injuries, the fact that Eovaldi has only made more than 30 starts twice in his career and literally had one good healthy season out of the three full seasons he pitched in Boston after signing his contract.
acell10
FPG, Don’t you think that overthrowing was what lead to the two TJ operations, many back and other injuries that Eovaldi has suffered over his entire career and his last 4 plus seasons in Boston? Eovaldi is max effort on all his throws.
Fever Pitch Guy
acel – The subject is “when healthy” for both deGrom and Sale.
Sale hasn’t been healthy since 2018, so yes I won’t count 2021 when he returned from TJS to pitch 42 innings or this year when he pitched 5 freakin’ innings. You want to count those 47 combined innings? Go for it. Call it cherrypicking or whatever you want. Doesn’t matter, still most Red Sox fans can remember the pitcher Sale was prior to the late-2018 injuries.
Sure, ignore the EIGHT DIFFERENT TYPES of documented injuries deGrom has had the past few years. Maybe some dumb team like the Rangers will ignore it too and give him the $140M you think he deserves, if so then more power to him. But I and most every Sox fan don’t want to come even close to giving deGrom a guaranteed 9-figure contract.
To answer your question, he realizes another injury-plagued year or two can totally destroy his earning potential as it did to Matt Harvey, that’s why he wants to try for a multi-year contract now. Beating $31M won’t be that hard to do.
Fever Pitch Guy
acel – Yeah, it probably was overthrowing. I don’t think it was delivery-related the way Sale’s was.
He was only 17 when he had the first TJS, and his surgeon gave him a clean bill of health 4 years ago, that’s why he was in such demand the last time he hit free agency.
Like I said, Nate is a risky signing too. But at 2 years younger and $90M less, I’d rather take the chance with him than Jacob. At least last year Nate proved he could still be a workhorse. deGrom hasn’t proven that since 2019.
acell10
I’m calling it what it is which is cherry picking the data. Sale had a well documented history of injuries like you said. If you’re going to just drop season for Sale drop seasons for DeGrom. I’d rather give that money to an actual ACE who has proven he can stay healthy over a longer period of time vs. a guy who hasn’t stayed healthy for more than two seasons over his entire career. the last one being two seasons ago in 2021.
acell10
FPG: did you really call Eovaldi a workhorse last year? the guy missed over a third of the season. Workhorses don’t miss that kind of time. He’s NEVER been a work in his career let alone last season. He’s only cracked 190 IP pitched once and never did that with the Sox. Whether you want to admit it or not he underperformed his last contract with the Red Sox.
The full throated defense of Eovaldi makes me wonder if you’re related to him work for him or both.
Fever Pitch Guy
acel – What are you talking about? You must be thinking of a different pitcher.
Last year Eovaldi led the league with 32 games started.
He also was 4th in the league with over 182 innings pitched.
If that’s not a workhorse, then nothing is.
acell10
Last year is 2022 not 2021 as the 2022 season has ended. He started 20 games in 2022 and pitched 110 innings . And in order to be a workhorse you need to consistently start 30-32 games a season and pitch over 180 innings. Eovaldi has done that twice in his 11 YEAR career and he’s never even cracked the 200 inning mark.. The issue seems to be that you don’t know the definition of the word work horse or at least how to apply it properly in context.
You keep hanging your hat on one season (2021) as if it defines his entire career. A career year does not define a career. You need be on the level because like I said before you seem like you either work for or are related to Eovaldi to support someone this much in the face of all the evidence that speaks to the contrary.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I don’t think resigning him is a good idea. He will want too much and is too injury prone. It’s not 2018 anymore.
MLB-1971
Better to sign extra pitching in the offseason, then have to trade away prospects at the deadline.
avenger65
It’s hard to imagine that 10/212 isn’t good enough to keep part of the nucleus of a perennial (for the most part) contender intact. I guess it’s a make-it-while-you-can mentality.
YourDreamGM
Not many people want to work for less than they can make elsewhere.
Dorothy_Mantooth
10/$275M seems like a reasonable compromise to sign Devers. People seem to think he’s a complete liability at 3rd base. That is not the case. His glove work and range has improved considerably over the past couple of seasons and he makes some incredible plays at 3rd. His biggest issue seems to be lack of concentration as he will occasionally boot an easy play or make a bad throw when he has plenty of time but all in all, he has vastly improved at 3rd defensively. He probably has another 3-4 seasons of acceptable play at 3rd, after which he may move to 1st base or DH, so 10 years at $275M seems reasonable. Front load it for $35M the first 4 years, $25M the next 3 years and $20M over the final 3 seasons. I’m sure he’ll want a no trade clause but having a lower salary at the end of his deal would allow Boston to trade him easier if he approves the deal.
Salvi
I just looked at Devers defense on ‘Baseball Savant’.
His OOA stats at 3B:
’17 Neg 9
’18 Neg 4
’19 Pos 17
’20 Neg 4
’21 Neg 13
22 Neg 2
2019 is a typo right? right? According to OOA, he wasn’t the 2nd best defensive third baseman in all of baseball that year, was he?
drasco036
His salary at the end is moot if the Red Sox re-sign/extend him because he will hit 10/5 in just a few seasons…
10/275 is a little high in my opinion, probably the Red Sox opinion as well. They view him as a future DH I’m sure with his defense and his yearly “will he come to camp in shape or no?” Gun to my head, 10/250 is the absolute highest with risk/reward and I’d give him an opt out clause or two. Heck, I’d give him an opt out clause every year after year four.
User 401527550
It might be to high for the Redsox. They continue to watch superstar after superstar walk out the door.
drasco036
First… how many “superstars” walked out the door? My count thus far is one AND Betts had absolutely zero intention on staying in Boston… actually Betts didn’t even walk out, he was shipped out.
Boston offered Betts a contract that was right on par with what he received from the Dodgers but he made it known he wasn’t sticking around Boston.
Since Betts, I haven’t seen any star player walk out the door… it could happen with Bogaerts but it hasn’t happened.
Maybe I’m missing something or maybe we have different definitions of “superstar” but I’ve seen Betts and Lester find new homes and neither “walked out the door” they were traded and in Lester’s case simply signed with a different team.
deweybelongsinthehall
Thinking ten is to much. 8 for $215m is my top evaluation. Monopoly money to us but real money to players and their agents. At least we’re not hearing how they “need to feed their family”.
deweybelongsinthehall
Back in the day, I thought the team was right with Lester (I was wrong). Betts was a no brainier. COVID reasons are why he jumped at the Dodgers’ offer without testing the market.
User 401527550
Betts wouldn’t take a low ball offer and is why they shipped him out. Bogaerts is not coming back and the same thing is happening to Devers. Three elite superstars not being paid by the Redsox. The same pattern for all three.
all in the suit that you wear
The door will be open for players out of touch with reality regarding their worth…as it should be.
User 401527550
Betts got a 376 million dollar contract. I guess the Red Sox were out of touch with his worth.
drasco036
So back to the original point, as of right now just Betts and I would hardly say the Red Sox low balled him, 300 million dollars isn’t low balling anyone. Betta camp responded with a $420 million dollar contract which is why Boston walked away.
And by your logic, the Yankees low balled Judge and since he is testing free agency he’s “walking away”.
all in the suit that you wear
Mookie is only two years into the deal. The jury is still out on whether it’s a good deal or not.
Salvi
Also, 300M on 3rd year of penalty, wouldve easily put the Red Sox payout closer to 400M.
Cooperdooper7
By year 6 or 7 it will not be a good deal…. by year 8-10 it will be a massive overpay
JoeBrady
watch superstar after superstar walk out the door.
================================
I’d like to think I know every player on the RS. I know the first superstar you mention is Betts. Who is the 2nd superstar?
JoeBrady
Betts wouldn’t take a low ball offer
===================================
We offered him more present value that he got from LA.
You have no idea what you are talking about, do you.
JoeBrady
Betts got a 376 million dollar contract.
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With massive deferrals. The PV of the contract is $306.7M/12, which is a lower AAV than the RS offer of $300M/10.
Anything else?
User 401527550
Bogarts
User 401527550
But the deferrals is still actual money coming to him. It isn’t imaginary. What you think it will be worth is irrelevant. He knows he’s getting it. Anything else?
Salvi
Mets69 you are not money savy. By the way, can you lend me $10,000. Dont worry I’ll pay you back $10,100 in 2032. YOULL MAKE A HUNDRED BUCKS!!! Its a no lose situation for you.
drasco036
The Red Sox haven’t lost Bogaerts. Just admit you are wrong and re-visit your argument in two years.
User 401527550
376million is not $10k. You comparing the two shows how non financial savvy you are. You are projecting on what future dollars will be worth and hoping he makes good financial decisions. He knows he’s getting paid for a long time instead of taking a gamble on what markets or investments will do. By the way, he still has the 300 million to invest over the same time frame.
User 401527550
Bogaerts is gone. He isn’t signing with the Red Sox now. Devers will be gone next year. You having some unrealistic hope of them staying doesn’t make me wrong. Very few top dollar free agents get to free agency and sign with their former club.
Salvi
Its got nothing to do with “good financial decisions”, or “gamble”. Its called the ‘Time Value of Money’. Todays money is worth less than future money. This is a very common concept.
Here’s a link:
investopedia.com/terms/t/timevalueofmoney.asp
PulledaBloom
Drascoo36 – Getting upset with Mets6986 for predicting several more superstar or star players not being on the Red Sox in 2023 seems unfair to me. Not only is Betts gone but a very reasonably priced all-star named Benintendi is gone too. What has been added?
That should be the focus of these debates.
NOTHING!!! Yes, Story has been added and he may once again achieve all-star status BUT Boston could be down Betts, Benny, JD, Bogey, Eovaldi and Devers if Bloom doesn’t have success resigning folks this off season.
It’s no mystery why the team is 4 games over ..500 in 3 years with Bloom and 104 games over .500 during Dombrowski’s 4 years. Bloom is not good at his job but somehow has convinced gullible fans to believe in his team’s future greatness. Smoke and Mirrors. No substantive additions in 3 years.
Worrying about payroll when the club clears over $300MM a year seems like a very odd perspective for the Red Sox fan base to concern themselves with. Bloom spent over the cap to finish last. Dombrowski spent under the cap and won three divisions and a ring.
EVERYONE who knows baseball knows what’s wrong with the Red Sox organization yet somehow the marketing folks keep selling the future greatness and people keep buying into it. Wake up there is no future greatness until you get a GM who knows how to win and a manager who knows more than how to be close friends with the players on the team and the media.
Superstars need to be added to the roster rather than debating how many have been lost so far. Until that happens, does it really matter if 1 or 3 superstars have left? Isn’t it more important that the team is 4 games over .500 under Bloom after 3 seasons?
You can’t fix things until you identify the problem. Now that the problem has been identified, Boston needs to fix it quickly to give the fans a shot of having hope for winning teams in the future.
PulledaBloom
ftsdvpp36 = Betts never took a low ball offer in LA. Research the time value of money. His $65MM in year 1 dramatically ups the Net Present Value of his contract and makes it comparable to what he asked from Boston. He didn’t settle, he got a fantastic deal.
Judge was low balled too. If he had taken the deal and performed as he did in 2022 then his value would have been astronomically higher than his cost in year 1 of a 7 year deal. Again, the time value of money once again shows why his deal was a tremendous low ball. His year 7 stats are worth nearly 1/2 that of year one when he broke all kinds of records. Judge did the right thing and bet on himself and won.
You need to better understand finances before making such erroneous comments about contracts.
Salvi
Benintendi? All Star? Yep so 2+ years ago, Bloom shouldve said this Benintendi who had a .442 OPS in his last season with Boston, is gonna be All-Star someday. Too funny. But, Cashman did great allowing Whitlock to be Rule V’ed on him and couldn’t see anything.
Its all a crap shoot, to a degree, and if you want to just look at the Benintendi’s, while turning a blind eye to the Whitlocks. Then youre the blind one.
Salvi
“His $65MM in year 1 dramatically ups the Net Present Value of his contract” ”
“You need to better understand finances before making such erroneous comments about contracts.”
——————————————————————————-
What Spotrac has to say about that 65M:
“$65 million signing bonus ($5M each of 2021-2032, $2M in 2033-2034, $1M 2035)”
What Spotrac says about the rest of the contract:
“$115 million deferred (2033 – 2044)”
Wow, just wow.
drasco036
I’m not upset about some idiot thinking Bogaerts and Devers are going to leave, I was stating a his pouting had no factual basis, which is doesn’t. Stating superstar players keep walking away from Boston is flat out untrue.
As for not adding, they are rebuilding. They added Story, they attempted to stay competitive, they were saddled with some bad contract decisions from a previous gm who sold out the future for a title. Which is fine, I would too. But the Sox found themselves in the same position as the Cubs, a lot of expiring contract at once and being backed into the luxury tax wall with a roster that isn’t that good.
Regardless of what several fans think, the luxury is important, negotiating long term, short term contracts and having flexibility to add to shortcoming via trade, absorb arbitration raises etc. penalties are stiff, especially when you run over for consecutive seasons.
PulledaBloom
Mookie made $27MM for LAD in 2020 (the same that Boston was paying him). Then, he got a $65MM bonus in 2021 and a 12 year $300MM deal. The AAV is $29MM for 12 years but the cashflow is going to last 20 years or more so LAD basically gave him $2MM more for 12 years and took a brilliant one time hit of $65MM when their payroll was in a position to take the hit. Boston could have done the same but Cherington signings were still on the books driving the costs over the threshold. LAD was smart to make the deal because both sides benefitted greatly and thanks to Mookie LAD was allowed to lessen their early cashflow by extending the cash payments for 10 years beyond the 12 year contract.
So what stat should be used to define whether a $29MM a year contract is being recouped? OPS+? Mookie’s 3 seasons have yielded 147, 126 and 136. Prior to moving to LAD Mookie’s career OPS+ was 134 and since moving to LAD it’s still 134 in LA. So how many players have career OPS+ of 134 or greater? Mookie is currently tied for 124th place all time in career OPS+. Babe Ruth leads with 206 and Ted Williams is second at 191. Active players with higher OPS+ for their career include: Mike Trout 176, Aaron Judge 163, Paul Goldschmidt 145, Albert Pujols 145, Joey Votto 145, Miguel Cabrera 142, Bryce Harper 142, Giancarlo Stanton 141, Freddie Freeman 140, Alex Bregman 137 and Jose Abreu 134 tied with Mookie.
So does a top 12 hitter in baseball deserve a $365MM 12 year contract with an AAV of $29MM and cash payments that extend 20+ years?
So many experts have formulas for performance based on AAV. To me, if the Red Sox make over 10 times your best players AAV in profits per year, they should have kept a top 12 player. Unfortunately, the guys left to be paid are not close to Mookie. Bogey is the best and deserves fair market pay but probably won’t get it from Bloom.
Devers who deserves significantly less due to his liability on defense since nobody has the guts to move him to DH, is not a $30MM a year AAV guy. Since he is one dimensional he’s probably at best $25MM AAV guy. Will he get that? He might. Will he take it? I doubt it especially if Bogey is elsewhere. Should he take an AAV contract of $25 for 10 years? ABSOLUTELY. With his body type, his lack of defense and his emotional immaturity. I think the team is eating a lot of risk to pay him that much and I think he believes he worth at least $5MM a year more than that.
He needs to be traded for resources the team needs desperately like pitching and outfield.
PulledaBloom
ReedSox – That’s simply not true. The old contracts rolled off prior to 2022 and the Price opt out would have brought Boston’s payroll under the CAP in 2020. Beginning in 2021 Boston had plenty of money to pay Mookie and after 2022 that would have expanded even more.
PulledaBloom
Cooperdooper7 – By year 7 the money paid will be worth roughly half what it’s worth in 2020. So if Mookie’s performance is half that of 2020 then it’s not a bad deal at that point. Remember, two factors impact the value of the contract versus the cost of the contract: Performance and Money. Both are assumed to degrade roughly by 7 percent by year so the money paid and the performance in 2020 dollars is expected to degrade.. Long deals are successful when the TOTAL OPS+ of the 10 years is better than the AAV. If there is a huge advantage in years 1 to 5 and a lower performance in 6=10 the ENTIRE contract is still likely to be positive. Remember, teams can plan to make moves as they observe their long term contracts and how they are performing. Betts is way ahead of his cost after 3 years so even if his last few years are bad, the overall contract is good.
Salvi
“Price opt out”
David Price did not have an opt out prior to 2020, nor would he have taken it had one existed. Red Sox were looking at 31M Luxury Tax charge for 2020, 21, 22. without the trade. — Basically, if they didn’t trade Price and Mookie they would be over in 2020, so an extension to Mookie would have killed them. Yet, they still tried.
PulledaBloom
Lets check your numbers:
BOSTON
$30MM paid annually for 10 years equals a NPV of $210.7MM.
LAD
$65MM in Year 1 and $28MM for 12 years equals $222.4MM plus $65MM for a total Net Present Value of $287.4MM or $76.4MM more than Boston offered.
You may want to check your numbers. MOOKIE’s deal in LAD was awesome for Mookie and lots more than Boston offered him.. It is the equivalent of $40.9MM for 10 years. A damn sight better than the $30MM that Boston offered and clearly not a COVID discounted price!!
Salvi
Where do you get “65MM in Year 1”??????????????????????
This is what Spotrac website (the leader in sports contracts) says about that 65 Million:
“65 million signing bonus ($5M each of 2021-2032, $2M in 2033-2034, $1M 2035)”
Just because its a ‘signing bonus’ doesn’t mean the payout dates cant be negotiated.
Here is where Im getting my info from
spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/mookie-betts-1….:
If you have something that contradicts this, please provide a link.
all in the suit that you wear
So, getting back to where this all started, the Red Sox did not just let Mookie walk out the door. $30M per year over 10 years is not a low ball offer. I wouldn’t risk more than that over the uncertainty of 10 years.
vtbaseball
“previous gm who sold out the future for a title.”
This is pure fantasy. DD gave up very little to get the pieces needed to win a championship.
Fever Pitch Guy
drascoo – if you want the player, you don’t walk away after receiving their opening ask. That’s an idiotic approach to negotiating.
Good faith negotiating means each party moves closer to the middle.
Guess what amount would have been the middle between Bloom’s $300M and Boras’s $420M?
$360M … just $5M less than what the Dodgers gave him.
JoeBrady
PulledaBloom19 hours ago
ftsdvpp36 = Betts never took a low ball offer in LA. Research the time value of money. His $65MM in year 1 dramatically ups the Net Present Value of his contract and makes it comparable to what he asked from Boston.
You need to better understand finances before making such erroneous comments about contracts.
=====================================
Instead of making scheitt up, simply take a minute to research it. The PA and MLB have a formula to determine the PV of a contract. The PV of Betts’ contract is $306,657,88212 (per MLBPA) The RS offered him $300M/10. Which sounds better to you?
You need to better understand finances before making such erroneous comments about contracts.
mrmathewv
If you guys need an editor please reach out.
YankeesBleacherCreature
You’re missing a comma in your sentence.
deweybelongsinthehall
Lol.
GaryWarriorsRedSox
Incomplete sentence. Reach out to who, just anybody out there? You thinking of anybody in particular or we supposed to guess?
cgallant
I got all psyched up for a minute expecting to see Carlos Rodon’s name here but no.
guilderc
I could see them signing some of the mid-to top tier guys. Senga and Manaea make sense. I think Bloom knows he’s gotta start winning. Sale,Manaea,Senga, Whitlock, and Paxton are a solid 5. And when the inevitable happens with Sale and/or Paxton, Bello will be ready to go.
Dorothy_Mantooth
Senga would make a lot of sense. I’m not sold on Manea pitching in the AL East but at least the head to head games get reduced this season from 19 games to 13 games. Maybe he can perform better if he only faces these teams 3-4 times per year instead of 5-6, but I think Bassett might be a better option than Manea on a short term deal.
User 401527550
I think they take this year as a reset and retool next year. I don’t see them signing anyone of importance.
BaseballisLife
Regardless if they are able to bring back Bogey, Devers will be traded. Pitching will be part of that trade.
Bosox2013
Like the way they got pitching in the Betts trade? Nah, probably get like 3 more middle infielders.
vtbaseball
Yeah. bloom doesn’t know how to trade for pitching.
deweybelongsinthehall
He meant the team will add Sales to the deal should Devers be moved (tongue in cheek).
Salvi
Id love to live your fantasy world. Young, quality pitching is s really tough to find. Its easily the most expensive asset to deal for. One year of control for Betts isn’t going to bring a huge haul of pitching, especially with David Price shoehorned into the deal.
But sure, there are tons of MLBTR commentors who would make executive of the year, if only they were given the chance.
vtbaseball
Are you telling me he couldn’t have gotten any pitching out of that trade? That seems far fetched. Also, his track record with picking up pitchers leaves a lot to be desired.
Salvi
“any pitching” Where did I say that?
Are you saying that “any pitching” wouldve been fine with you? So backend starter with four or five ERA wouldve made the deal ok?
deweybelongsinthehall
They had the opportunity to get Graterol but pivoted away.
all in the suit that you wear
The Dodgers paid $48M of David Price’s remaining contract in order to get just one year of Mookie. That was the main return to the Red Sox. The players were gravy.
JoeBrady
Are you telling me he couldn’t have gotten any pitching out of that trade?
================================
Probably not. We got Verdugo, Downs, and Wong because LA had Betts, Lux, and Smith. We could asked for pitching, but that would’ve seriously downgraded the overall package. You have to go with teams willing to give up their best, redundant prospects.
That said, with the trade market likely limited to LA & SD, who would you have targeted?
PulledaBloom
More like sludge not gravy. Any buy down is a bad deal for the team reducing their available payroll under the CAP.
all in the suit that you wear
PAB: I don’t understand what you are saying. Please elaborate.
PKCasimir
The original Betts deal involved pitching (Graterol) but the Sox team doctors reviewed his medical records and put a kybosh on his inclusion in the deal.
Salvi
Graterol is a great example. He has pitched just over 100 innings since 2020, and has accrued 0.8 WAR in that time. Verdugo has accrued 1400+ plate appearances and produced 5.5 WAR.
In what world would the Red Sox have been better off in that deal by accepting Graterol? Yes, Sox need pitching desperately, but “young quality pitching” (what I said earlier) is tough to deal for. A Betts and Price combined deal wont give you anything better than Graterol. I’ll take Verdugo every time.
acell10
in fairness you’re making a mistake in comparing Graterol to Verdugo. Verdugo was always a part of the trade. Downs was swapped for Graterol so this is basically a wash.
Salvi
Downs was the bad egg in deal. He was a top 5 prospect in the Dodgers farm system. He’s been junk since he put on a Red Sox uniform. Thats why trading for prospects is a gamble.
If thats true, sure they shouldve accepted Graterol, but I still don’t see him as any game changer. Relief pitchers are a hit or miss and 100 inning over 3 years wasn’t going to change the Sox fate.
acell10
it is true if you back and look at the original trade
MLB-1971
They do not have boat anchor David Price’s contract to trade with Devers like they did with Betts, but some Bosox fans are just slow….
Randy Red Sox
these are all typical Bloom type signings. Guys who fill back end out of the rotation potential but none of these guys will move the needle off the Sox finishing 5th in the AL East
Bosox2013
It’s early but those names still feel like Bloom but rummaging through the garbage again.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Ugh! Boston should not be setting their sights on Tyler Anderson unless he is third or forth down on the priority list. They need some major firepower in that rotation. Two hard throwers , one should be Rodon…and perhaps another via trade. Gotta have that one-two punch of co-Aces for the postseason. Anderson would be cool to focus on for a number 4 or 5. But the top of that rotation needs some major work, and some major attention.
all in the suit that you wear
Anderson is interesting. I’m not sure I would sign him to a big contract. He has only had one good year and it was a really good year, but it was in the NL West and he averaged less than one strikeout per inning. I like pitchers that average at least one strikeout per inning.
30 Parks
Sox don’t need to sign any impact free agents. Just a matter of time before all those can’t-miss-prospects are on the big league roster. Yes, sir. Fifth in the East awaits.
Salvi
Correct you are. They need another 2 years. When a GM trades away 31 prospects, diminishes the ability to acquire new draft picks/international signings, through Salary Cap penalties, it leaves a hole. A big hole. And since baseball development takes 5 to 6 years, the Red Sox are on schedule to put a rock sold young lineup on the diamond in 2025.
I hope 2018 was worth it.
Poundsy24
This absolutely wasn’t Bloom’s fault. This is product of Dombrowski. This is the first off-season Bloom has flexibility. He’s being held hostage by Bogaerts and Devers deals right now because of trading away Vazquez. If Bogaerts leaves Devers will likely follow but I think that’s because they didn’t want to be here (which is on Bloom).
I think this off-season is going to be a lot like the Calgary Flames off-season this year. Big names going out, big names coming in.
30 Parks
Poundsy – the Flames won that deal, in the end, by a mile. That was well played by Calgary – interesting comparison, though I’m not as optimistic regarding Bloom.
JoeBrady
I hope 2018 was worth it.
==========================
Definitely.
1-DD didn’t quite empty the farm. He traded good value, but nothing irreplaceable.
2-The contracts have come home to roost, but that’s the nature of l/t contracts. That was worse than the trades. In 2022, we spent ~ $81M on Price, JD, Eovaldi and Sale, and got 2.6 bWAR out of it.
3-Past that, we hardly crippled. We got to within two games of the WS in 2021, and won 78 games last year with a massive amount of injuries.
PulledaBloom
ReedSox – You talk like Boston hasn’t been in the 5 to 6 year development process until Bloom came. Did you watch the 2010s when Boston graduated tons of excellent players? That entire process was not changed by Dombrowski, it was enhanced by him. Yes, all his success cost us early draft picks whereas Bloom’s failures have provided some much improved picks but his early draft picks like Casas, Houck and others are progressing through the farm system and being successful at the MLB level just like the previous 10 years of success. What’s missing is any success from Bloom’s 3 years as GM. With all the trades you would think he would have hit on a few more minor league acquisitions but he hasn’t. He’s hoping his two draft picks will arrive by 2024 or 2025 to redeem him but hopefully it will be too late and Boston will have a real GM again.
3 years is over. Farm system is rated higher thanks to good draft picks. The talent level has not significantly changed from the previous 10 years. The MLB team has taken a nose dive for 3 years. There is no way to look through the lens and see success under Bloom. The waiting period for judging him is over. He’s received an F on his report card. All that is left is replacing him and hopefully that happens sooner rather than later because we want a competitive team like we had until he arrived.
ReedSox – Count the DFA’d players by Bloom. List the stud’s traded away that have impacted any other team significantly. Your content lacks facts and your numbers grossly exaggerate reality. The farm system was fine in 2019 but it didn’t have early first round picks bolstering it’s numbers since back then the Red Sox were successful, unlike now.
Salvi
“That entire process was not changed by Dombrowski, it was enhanced by him.”
Completely inaccurate. He inherited a top 5 farm system, and when he was fired it was ranked 3oth. When a team is Over the Salary Threshold, they get punished by loss of draft picks and international money to sign young Latin American players. While he was in charge in Boston, he traded away 31 prospects in under 4 years. DD did make some good draft picks and signings, and I think he is a great young talent evaluator, you just can’t sustain a healthy farm system losing out on all those players. You can’t skim on mortar when building a foundation, cracks begin to show.
Here is all the moves that DD made while in Boston. While many became non-prospects, several are producing, while none he brought in amounted to anything.
mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrow…
Also: Here is a typical ranking of the Red Sox Farm system Mid-Season 2019 (around the time of DD’s firing). It shows the Red Sox in DEAD LAST. Im not making this up, I’m providing backup, while you are not doing the same.
bleacherreport.com/articles/2852665-re-ranking-all…
Salvi
Roughly the time DD took over the Red Sox. This is ranking their farm system compared to other teams:
bleacherreport.com/articles/2564903-re-ranking-all…
Now, roughly the time DD was fired by the Red Sox.
bleacherreport.com/articles/2852665-re-ranking-all…
If you look at the list he inherited: Yoan Moncada, Manuel Margot and Michael Kopech are all still producing. Add to that Jalen Beeks, and Stephen Nagoski and you suddenly have 5 guys they could really use today.
According to BR Red Sox were 4th best Farm System in all of baseball. By the time DD left, BR ranked them in dead last. What was he “enhancing”. Its indefensible and the reason he was fired. Now find some link that says he “enhanced” it by the time he left. Your argument can’t hold water, it just your opinion without any fact.
30 Parks
Well said, PulledaBloom! A refreshing take based in reality. Agreed all around. Not to mention, Dombrowski won a World Series. I don’t get the Bloom admiration from so many – puzzling.
vtbaseball
30 Parks- to the Bloominatis, he is the chosen one and can do no wrong
Salvi
What a simpleton take. Nothing based in fact.
I showed how DD walked into a dream job. Below Salary Cap, Top 5 Farm System, and left with 3 years over the Cap, Last place Farm system, 31 prospects traded away, and huge albatross contracts to David Price and Chris Sale. But, ‘ hey we won a WS!’ That core had so much more potential.
Your response ‘ahh, youre just a Bloom lover’. WTF?
30 Parks
The “simpleton” take is believing the nonsense Sox fans are being handed about the “farm system.” PulledaBloom explained it clearly – Bloom has done a terrible job, the Sox pick higher in the draft, they get better prospects … the foundation of your argument starts with Bloom doing a terrible job.
Further, who are these can’t miss prospects? The 4th overall pick – that’s good scouting? My dog could make the 4th overall selection. Tell me which players we’re waiting upon. Also, who are the game-changers Dombrowski gave away? Dombrowski won a World Series and he’s compared to a guy that can’t finish ahead of the Orioles.
The Sox want homegrown players they can keep, right? They are presently chasing-off exactly those type players – Betts, Devers, Bogaerts, Benintendi, etc. Makes no sense.
Sox are a mess and run by a fellow at least one-step-beyond his depth. There is a “simpleton” in this discussion, I agree.
Salvi
‘pulledbloom’ claimed Betts got 65M in the first year of his LA contract. Which is completely wrong. So I don’t think you should be bragging about his baseball knowledge.
To your points:
“nonsense Sox fans are being handed about the “farm system.””
What nonsense are they being handed, what does that mean? Who’s doing the handing, where are you getting this from?
“4th overall pick”
Good for your dog, but Mayer is years away from the majors, how is he suppose to being helping the major league team now? Youre critising the current team right? So what does Mayer in 2025 have to do with anything?
“who are these can’t miss prospect”
Where does this come from, who said this?
“who are the game-changers Dombrowski gave away”
You refuse to look at the whole picture. But sure, I’ll indulge:
RF would have Manuel Margot, the Starting Pitching would have Michael Kopech and Jalen Beeks, 2B would have Yoan Moncada, and Stephen Nogosek would be in the bullpen, plus several more players still in the minors (and no I NEVER SAID “game changer” I said these guys would be much more helpful than Sale, Price and Eovoldi are today.
“They are presently chasing-off exactly those type players”
You obviously don’t understand the impact of the salary cap. Betts was as good as gone, Benintendi was terrible before he left, and 5 prospects when you’re in rebuild mode isn’t a bad deal. Thats only 2 players. The other two are still works in progress.
——————
In summation, all you do is talk in superlatives
“nonsense Sox fans are being handed”
“Bloom has done a terrible job”
“Bloom is doing a terrible job” Seriously, did you need to repeat that
“my dog could make . . .”
“chasing-off”
“make no sense”
“Sox are a mess”
“a fellow at least one-step-beyond”
You wrote 4 paragraphs and said NOTHING CONCRETE. Thats why I say your argument is that of a simpleton. Now look back at what I wrote, Im not making outlandish claims, although you act like I am. Let me know when you want me to make a list of points for you cover about DD?
30 Parks
Have a nice day, Reed.
vtbaseball
bloom shopping in the discount aisle as usual.
whyhayzee
If they learned ANYTHING from last year it is to get pitchers who stay healthy. Pivetta has made 63 starts in the last two years. He’s a .500 pitcher with a 4.5 ERA so he really fits at the back of the rotation. But he has taken the ball and that’s good.
Anderson’s made 59 starts in the last two years and 32 in 2018. That’s pretty good.
Heaney’s made 37 starts in the last two years and 30 in 2018. Not as trustworthy.
Lugo has been flexible and generally effective, kind of settled in at a 3.5 ERA, that’s decent enough for bullpen innings. And he can start in a pinch. I would like him on the Red Sox. They need flexible and reliable arms in the bullpen. They are generally good at not overusing their pitchers so he could be a good fit for this team.
I would consider Anderson at the right price but not expect a great result. I would put him at the back of the rotation, nice to have a left hander who might actually start 30 games.
I would pass on Heaney. At any price. He’s just another arm at this point. Could they turn him into an effective reliever? That is something the Red Sox have done more than once. But that’s not a reason to sign him unless they see something.
oscar gamble
It seems to me that the Sox have a better chance of getting Bogaerts to agree to a new contract than Devers. I am not a Red Sox fan and am interested in what the Red Sox fans think.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Honestly, neither sound promising. Story was signed for a reason and Devers will only be signed if Bloom overpays.
drasco036
I think Story is done at short because of his arm… could be wrong
30 Parks
Dras36 – I agree about Story’s arm. However, Bloom seems determined to find that out the hard way.
drasco036
I think you can either extend Devers or re-sign Bogaerts, unwise to do both.
I think if extend Devers, you have to look at improving defense at short. Yeah I get Bogaerts was good in 22 but that isn’t his track record and I’m not sold all the sudden he will be a plus defender.
I think so many teams will be competing for the same free agents due to the weak class, Abreu would be a good 2 year get for Boston to cover first and/or DH.
JoeBrady
unwise to do both.
==========================
My thinking as well. I hope that all the fans screaming to re-sign Bogaerts are aware that it would likely mean the end of Devers. I see no way that those two are the left side of our infield in the long-term.
I think Bogaerts is much closer to fair value. If the FG crowdsource is right, I think $168M/6 is a good bit better than Devers ask of $300M. And signing Bogaerts gives us better options at trading Devers.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I didn’t know Nick Pivetta and dependable belonged in the same sentence. He’s a good #4 or #5 but when we started him as a #2 that was not a good idea.
The more of these I see, the more I think Bloom has no idea what he’s doing. I hope I’m wrong. I said I would give him this off-season to get it together but boy does it seem confusing right now.
vtbaseball
bloom is in over his head
Salvi
Where is Bloom suppose to get these assets? He has had very few trading chips, since he got here and Free Agent pitchers don’t want to come to Boston and pitch at Fenway. Especially with the worst left side of any defense in baseball (Im talking about the past few years).
Please give examples of how he was suppose to improve the pitching with what he had?
all in the suit that you wear
ReedSox: Yes, not much to trade now and if they sign a lot of older free agents to big contracts, they will look like the Yankees in a few years with Hicks, Stanton and LeMahieu clogging up the payroll. Maybe Rizzo too. I support building up future players and trade chips in the farm and avoiding long contracts for older players.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
That’s what we should have done trade deadline this past year. Huge missed opportunity
Salvi
I think FO felt a lot of pressure from the fans. Ticket sales and merchandise drive a lot of decisions. If they really went full Fire Sale, there would have been a lot of disgruntled fans. Thus, lowering sales for merch and tickets for 2023. Long term the team would’ve been a lot better off. But, they don’t see that.
Businesses gotta business. But, when it comes to the Red Sox, they are not allowed to do that.
PulledaBloom
By signing good pitchers not cheap pitchers. He knew his books opened up in 2022 thanks to DD’s well plan financial structure so why not use that knowledge during the last 3 years to pay for good pitching not cheap pitching?
Examples of good signings in 2021 at SP
Gausman, Rodon, Ray, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray to name a few.
That’s what a good GM would have done. Wacha turned out better than expected and that speaks volumes to the K-MART approach by Bloom. You don’t win championships that way. You can’t blame others for Bloom’s ineptitude. He’s not handcuffed by money. He’s not limited by ownership. He’s simply a very, very bad GM and there is 3 years of proof now and there will be 4 years by this time next year.
30 Parks
… way over his head, VT, yes. It’s tough to watch. He appears to be doing the same as last year … fifth place.
B-Strong
I love Devers, but hes not Manny Machado. If he wants 30m/yr, he better get waaaaay better with that glove this year or he’s going to have to settle for less.
MoneyBallJustWorks
Sale, Paxton, Heaney
so basically one healthy pitchers worth of starts combined
Fever Pitch Guy
Money – Don’t forget the inevitable signing of Octogenarian Rich Hill.
That will get them at least 10 more starts.
30 Parks
Chaim Bloom is the new JP Ricciardi. Promising riches down the road – always down the road.
angelsfan4life
Please Red Sox, sign Andrew Heaney. Nothing would make me happier than seeing him get lit up pitching in that division.
bosox2004
He gone
Jimmy joe
I believe Bloom and the brass have a plan that is still a couple of years away. Although Bloom doesn’t inspire confidence with some of his moves. Right now they are filling holes until 2024 or 25. That’s when a bunch of these young prospects are suppose to be mlb ready. With any luck a few of them will hit but most will be misses. I think the Sox and others are looking to follow the Braves model. In four years if the Sox have five or six good homegrown players locked up long term I think that would be great. I’d rather them just come out and say it but of course that’s not going to happen. They have to sell tickets and keep the fan base engaged. If it is indeed their plan I don’t see any need to keep Devers or X. They should have already moved Devers at the trade deadline but move him now and get what you can to help build for 24-25. The wildcard is expanded so if they can get some pitching and put a decent team on the field until then who knows, maybe they can make a post season run. Unfortunately I think this is the reality of the next year or two.
creacher
This article was made quick as hell.. words are missing or extra words are in sentences making no sense lol, respect the off-season grind
BloodySox
Red sox are finally realizing you need pitching to win.
JoeBrady
They had pitching. They didn’t have health. We probably had a better rotation in 2022 than we had in 2021. The difference is that, in 2021, our #6 and minor leaguers started 16 games, and in 2022, they started 58 games.
PulledaBloom
So are you saying the success of 2021 was pure luck? A worse pitching staff with better health thus better results? I guess the pitching staff being healthy in 2018 and injured in 2019 impacted the slightly over .500 finish in 2019 versus the ring in 2018. 2020 was filled with injuries, 2021 wasn’t and 2022 was.
So is pitching health luck or is bad pitching health simply bad luck? Should the Red Sox coaching staff have better control over the health of their pitchers? Because it sounds like their health drives the success of the team to some degree. Yes, better players would make them more comparable to their intra-divisional rivals but healthy pitching in 2023 could allow them to rise above .500 again.
JoeBrady
So are you saying the success of 2021 was pure luck?
===========================
To some degree, yes. Baseball is intrinsically driven by numbers.
In 2018, our top-4 only missed 16 starts, and we replaced our #5 with Eovaldi. We missed very few starts.
In 2013, we missed 10 starts from 4 of our rotation, and missed another 16 from Buchholz, 10 of which were replaced by Peavy.
Same in 2007. In 2004, we had 5 SPs that threw an incredible 157 starts.
And, of course, there is a second side to this. It is helpful if your minor league system can contribute. In 2007, we had health, with 140 GS from our rotation, but in the missing 22 starts, we had Lester, Buchholz & Gabbard take another 21 GS.
So the injuries are largely luck, but a good farm is largely skill. But in either case, we had to make up 58 missing starts, and no farm can replace those.
whyhayzee
Quoting myself: If they learned ANYTHING from last year it is to get pitchers who stay healthy. You can find it further up the chain.
There are a lot of contributing factors to injuries. Too many to name, but the obvious ones are the player’s physiology, the player’s training, proper rest to help avoid overtraining, proper diet and good health to maintain consistency, a well thought out approach to pitching that maximizes performance while keeping effort at an acceptable level. Past performance can give insight into durability but cannot be relied upon fully. What drove the past performance, both good and bad?
And, there is some luck involved. What if that line drive didn’t hit Sale’s hand? We will never know.
JoeBrady
Always fun to speculate. At the time, we were only 3.5 away from the top WC slot.
Mi Casas es tu Casas
Boggs clemens Vaughn damon fisk pedro and plenty more kid. A few didn’t perform after leaving but they were still superstars at the time.
baseballguru
Sign Judge
Salvi
Helll no, Jacoby Ellsbury 2.0 about to happen to whoever signs him.
profbraddock
This should have been titled, “Red Sox Showing Early Interest In Inexpensive Pitchers While Watching Bogaerts and Devers Walk Out Door” Wake me up after Bloom is fired and ownership starts the pendulum swinging in the other direction.
JoeBrady
Don’t fret. The off-season ‘team xyz is interested in player abc” is for entertainment purposes only. GMs like Cashman, Friedman, Bloom, etc., don’t talk to the press about who they are going to sign. All of this is mis-direction. And agents do the same thing.
solaris602
James Click: “I’m available, and I can start Monday.”