Players have until tomorrow afternoon to make decisions on their one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offers, and as things currently stand, Martin Perez is “likely” to accept his offer, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi hedges by suggesting that a late change in Perez’s market could prompt him to change his thinking, but it’s still of some note to see where things stand for Perez at present, after several days of fielding interest from other teams.
Perez, 32 in April, returned to the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM contract this season and quickly became one of baseball’s best bargains. The former top prospect finally delivered the type of season the Rangers envisioned during his minor league days, finishing tenth in the Majors with 196 1/3 innings and posting a 2.89 ERA that ranked 14th in the Majors. Perez’s success was due in no small part to a career-high 77% strand rate and to a level of home-run prevention (0.50 HR/9) he hasn’t shown since an injury-shortened 2015 season. However, the Rangers saw enough to make that weighty one-year offer, ostensibly comfortable with the idea that even in the event of some regression, Perez can be a serviceable innings eater in an otherwise perilously thin rotation mix.
Accepting the one-year offer wouldn’t necessarily preclude an eventual multi-year deal with the Rangers. While Perez would be locked in at $19.65MM for the 2023 season (and ineligible to be traded, without his consent, prior to June 15), that agreement could be torn up in favor of a new multi-year extension. The two parties would be free to continue negotiating on a possible multi-year pact, and Texas has reportedly already put forth a two-year offer to Perez — presumably at a notably lighter annual value than the $19.65MM rate of the QO.
From a payroll vantage point, even if that $19.65MM salary is something of an “overpay” for Perez, the Rangers likely don’t mind. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects them for a payroll just shy of $122MM at the moment, so Perez would take them to about $141.5MM. Texas has run its payroll as high as $174MM, back in 2017, and that was before they had a brand new ballpark from which to draw revenue. GM Chris Young has said that payroll is expected to rise over its 2022 levels, when the Rangers’ $142MM Opening Day payroll is right in the vicinity where they’d be in the event of Perez accepting the QO.
If he does indeed accept, Perez would join Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and newly acquired Jake Odorizzi as options in the rotation. Texas is widely expected to pursue high-end starting pitching in free agency, having already been linked to the likes of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon and NPB star Kodai Senga, who is available (sans posting fee) as a true international free agent this winter.
I like it. Great for both parties.
Stick a Judge in the three spot. Semien , Seager , Judge. My oh My
That 3 looks like it has as many wins in them as Ohtani, Trout, Rendon
On the surface , but Rangers are much much deeper all the way down the rest of the lineup. Still have mashers after those three.
1st inning be a nightmare for every pitcher lol
Lowe, Adolis, and Heim are all great. Even Garver is dangerous if he gets healthy.
Toss in young Jung
Lots of upside in that lineup for sure. Lots of potential depth, something the Angels don’t have. That’s why they crumble every time Trout, Ohtani, or Rendon get hurt/don’t perform.
Ed – Ahh that’s nothing compared to the powerful Red Sox lineup!
They’ve got Devers (provided he doesn’t get traded this offseason) and they’ve got … ehh …. errr …. oh, nevermind.
The question is, will the Angels ever get all three to take the field at the same time for a prolonged period of time?
It’s easy to envision the Angels doing a lot of damage with those three but they never seem to be healthy at the same time and the rest of the teams production is very hit and miss as well.
As much as I would hate to see Trout playing for multiple organizations, the Angels would be wise to trade him and Ohtani this year
you could say that about almost any other team outside of a few AAAA teams like the Pirates
Let’s do it, I’m down.
That’s more than half his career earnings for one season. He’d be kind of crazy not to take it tbh.
Guy would be better off representing himself
Smart move. No risk. Bird in the hand vs two in the bush, quite literally- given that he might get 2 years if he tests the open market, he might get $7.5M or so annually on a deal.
In a perfect world I think you give him a 1 year/$17.5M deal with a $7.5M buyout on a $12.5M option or you give him a deal nearly identical to that of Paxton’s with Boston:
1 year/$13M w no buyout on a club option that, if exercised, would activate a 2 year/$38M deal, but also with a player option for 1 year/$7M or something like that.
Martin Perez doesn’t not have the history of success that Paxton had when he signed that deal with the Red Sox. Perez accepting the $19+ million QO, then seeing what he can get in 2024 probably ends up being more money in the long run. IMO, GMs will not give him 3 yr $30,000,000 with his limited success, and he could probably get 2 yr $11,000,000 or more in 2024.
Hard to fill your rotation with starters who will win games when you have Gray, Dunning, Odorizzi, and Perez filling 4 spots. Not going to win more games than you currently are with that foursome. The Rangers are an odd front office, spending big money on Seager and Semien, Let’s say they add 1 ace level SP, that doesn’t make them better than 3rd in their division. Even adding Judge and a top level SP wouldn’t get them past Seattle or Houston. Bottom line is they need more prospects coming up to carry them over a hump. Overspending on a piece here and there does nothing to this team.
I agree with the sentiment. However, I think there’s a chance you see Dunning and/or Odorizzi see time in the pen depending on additional signings.
Regardless, no matter what we do, getting past Seattle and Houston is a major uphill battle. Even with significant additions this season, I think we’re gunning for a Wild Card spot. Houston doesn’t show any signs of slowing down and Seattle is just getting going.
Dunning and Odorizzi are depth pieces. The Rangers are likely targeting 2 top of the rotation arms. Why do I believe this? SImple. Bochy wouldn’t have agreed to come out of retirement otherwise. In every interview I’ve heard him since hiring, he’s hinted heavily at adding a couple arms, either through free agency or via trade.
My guess is they are targeting deGrom and Rodon. They want at least one, and depending on years, they’d sign both. Likely though if they get one, they then turn to the trade market and I would guess they’re looking at Pablo Lopez from Miami and Brandon Woodruff from the Brewers.
That would then make Perez your #3, Gray #4, Odorizzi #5 and Dunning a swing man. Perez and Odorizzi are just committed (likely) through next year. Then you have Leiter/Rocker/White/Winne (if none of the get traded) waiting in the wings.
It seems like they are trying to create a rotation that “can be” stable. Of course, all four have question marks. However, if healthy, you’re looking at a rotation of 3’s and 4’s, which is very steady and allows the offense to carry the team. That’s how the Cardinals roll.
I’d take it if I was Perez.
This web site and so many other “thinkers” always wanna chop everything up to luck when a guy has an improvement. Sure he’s not sexy sabermetrically but many of his stats beyond era suggest he was better last year than previously in his career. Even the fact that he put up the good era IS usually enough to indicate he was better (when it’s that low over that many innings in a home park that is good to hit in usually). People rarely start all year and produce a sub 3 era in a pitchers park because of luck. How much luck can a person have?
Hitters park…not pitchers.lol
it is 100% a pitchers park.
Oh. I didn’t know it was a pitchers park admittedly. But still agree with what I originally said.
The Ranger’s ballpark is a Hitters park
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
it plays even at best. look at the history of the park not just last year. their last field was a hitters haven. this one not so much.
Just to add to this, Perez made adjustments last season. If you followed his year, he made some pitch selection decisions that seemed to seriously contribute to a turn-around season. It’s fair to assume he’s a better pitcher now than he was in Boston, Minnesota, or Texas (prior) because of those adjustments. Time will tell if he’s worth the money he’ll get paid this year but I think it’s a low-risk play by both Perez and the Rangers to take the QO route.
That’s not to say it will be repeated necessarily. Time will tell. Sometimes everything just clicks for a year combined with a little luck that never hurts.
not a big fan of paying Martin 20 mil. but now we only really need one pitcher. a great one. deGrom. after that we will have a fantastic rotation.
1. deGrom
2. Gray
3. Perez
4. Odorizzi
5. Dunning
I would also like the Rangers to go and get Gallo back if he is willing. with the elimination of Shifts he is likely to become a much better hitter.
C Heim
1B Lowe
2B Seimien
SS Seager
3B Jung
LF Garcia
CF Tavaras
RF Gallo
DH Garver/Huff/Smith/Duran (a lot of options until Garver is back)
If deGrom is healthy, its a great rotation. If not, then you’re hoping Cole Winn is ready to contribute at the 5.
Aubrey Huff is still playing?
I’m sure you’re joking but he is referring to Sam Huff–Rangers catcher
Way overpay, he’d be crazy not to take it. Who knows if he puts up the same numbers as 2022. He almost got cut from the Red Sox in 2021.
Anyone else having problems when going on Baseball Reference (clicking players link) and trying to view stats? When I click on a player and it goes to BR’s site it doesn’t show stats from each season like before.
Take it. Nobody in their right mind is going to offer him that kind of money.
Rangers locked him in. He really has little choice but to sign with the Rangers or accept the QO. No team is going to give up the draft picks to sign him to the 2-3 year deal he is looking at.