The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).
With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.
Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.
Locks
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Edwin Díaz (Mets)
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.
Possible Candidates
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.
Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.
Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.
One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.
- Mitch Haniger (Mariners)
Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.
Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.
- Andrew Heaney (Dodgers)
The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.
Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.
That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.
If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.
Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.
- Jameson Taillon (Yankees)
Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.
Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.
- Taijuan Walker (Mets)
Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.
Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.
Longshots
- Mike Clevinger (Padres)
Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.
- Zach Eflin (Phillies)
Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.
- Sean Manaea (Padres)
San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.
- Jurickson Profar (Padres)
Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.
- Ross Stripling (Blue Jays)
Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox)
Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.
Ineligible
- José Abreu (White Sox)
- Josh Bell (Padres)
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees)
- Carlos Correa (Twins)
- Noah Syndergaard (Phillies)
- Justin Verlander (Astros)
All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.
Braveslifer
Dansby will be a Dodger
amk1920
Friedman is not signing someone who has one good season to a massive deal
BeansforJesus
As a Braves fan…Fingers crossed.
Braveslifer
Dansby will become a Dodger
Jake1972
Then I hope Turner is a Cub!
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Trea or Justin?
Jake1972
Both?
Prefer Trea though.
Jake1972
Trea
avenger65
no chance. the cubs are rebuilding and haven’t been signing top players.
BeansforJesus
Ted. But he’s probably busy with the Nuclear Threat Initiative at the moment.
Also, completely related. I just found out Ted Turner was the co-creator of Captain Planet.
DarkSide830
Even after this year, Heaney has all of one season wherein he was mostly healthy and not pitching horribly. QO money is insane for him.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I think the Dodgers should give Tyler Anderson a QO. Then he can choose 1 year 19 million rather than maybe get 3 years 30 million from the open market. Win win. Dodgers should have prospects ready for 2024 but they need Tyler and Kershaw both of them on 2023.
DarkSide830
Anderson is a better bet. I like him as a 3 year $15 AAV guy.
Jean Matrac
He can’t really choose between the two options. If he preferred the 3/$30M deal, he’d have to be sure he would get that after turning the QO down.
Having the QO is a negative for some potential signing teams, them not wanting to lose a draft pick for Anderson. A team that would give him 3/$30M without the QO, might not with.
Plus, he’s entering his age 33 season. Would he want to reenter the FA market going into his age 34 season? He’s kind of screwed if LA issues him a QO.
kcmark
Offering him or SD offering Manea would be bad decisions.
Holy Cow!
Am I off here thinking that Rizzo is walking into limbo like Conforto if he rejects a QO?
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Rizzo should be smart and take the QO.
Cosmo2
No. Not off at all.
drasco036
I don’t think it would be wise to offer Rizzo a QO for the simple risk of him potentially taking it.
I know everyone thinks the Yankees print money and they can spend spend spend regardless of luxury tax but they paid this seasons, conservatively, will have to pay Judge 35 million aav and they are only an estimated 30 million under the tax going into 2023. So if they want to bring back Judge, they are already 5 over, Rizzo would put them 25 over with a lot more needs, rotation, bullpen, potentially re-signing Benny
Deleted Userr
As mentioned in the body, the QO is only like $3m more than Rizzo would be leaving on the table if he opts out. The QO should just be automatic if he opts out.
drasco036
As mentioned in my post, if he takes it, the Yankees are going to shoot well past the luxury tax threshold but hey, it’s the Yankees…. They can pay 60 million over right?
Deleted Userr
@drasco036 But he’s *not* going to take it
drasco036
How do you know he’s not going to take it? What would you honestly give Rizzo on the open market? 30 million over 2 years?
Seriously, he has the qualifying offer hanging over him, I personally would take Abreu over him, injury concern, low batting average, declining defensive skills…
Deleted Userr
Because the QO is barely more than he’d be making if he were to simply opt-in.
And batting average isn’t the greatest stat to look at. ESPECIALLY when we are talking about arguably the most shifted-against hitter in baseball and the shift will be banned next year.
drasco036
The unfortunate news is that his advance stats show regression regardless of shift or not.
Rizzos going to have a choice as to where he wants to play, the qualifying offer could greatly reduce his leverage. He appears to like playing in new York and accepting, allows him comfort that he’s coming back and do what Abreu did in the past and work out an extension.
You say, “it’s only a little more” but it’s more. Are you implying he should simply opt in and leave the 4 million on the table?
Deleted Userr
He will opt out if and only if teams are willing to give him more than 1/$16m. Are you saying he can beat that but not the dollar figure of the QO?
In addition, he probably cares more about the total guarantee than the AAV. The QO might be a solid AAV but it’s still just a one-year deal.
Deleted Userr
@drasco036 So much for your THEORY about Rizzo accepting the QO LOL!
drasco036
So much for your theory that you’re not a complete tool
Deleted Userr
If you had any class at all you would admit you were wrong in front of this board and we will leave it at that.
drasco036
I was wrong that I predicted closer to 2/30 which is what I feel he should have gotten not that there was a chance he would accept the qualifying offer.
My argument is moot because the Yankees guaranteed him a 20 million aav which screws up their luxury tax management more than the qualifying offer would have any way. Now it looks like the Yankees will run out the same “not good enough” team as they did last year l, just a year older.
BaseballisLife
.817 OPS and 131 OPS+ as the most shifted against player in baseball going into a 2023 season when there can be none of the extreme shifts teams employed against him all of the 2022 season.
Thinking he has a great shot at getting more than $19.65 million.
JackStrawb
@DonnyElementary Rizzo rejects his 16m option year then the 19.325m QO?
1n any case, he’s an old 2.3 rWAR 1Bman who wasn’t worth a starting spot in 2021 and was only decent in 60 games in 2020.
Most projection systems will have him around 1.5 rWAR in 2023, with little upside as an old player, so not even worth the 16m, particularly at the easiest position to fill. In addition his defensive numbers are falling through the floor. The Yankees should know this to a certainty.
If the Yankees actually want him back it’s only b/c Cashman is a thoroughgoing mediocrity. No smart team should want to pay $16m (never mind QO money) to a player like Rizzo. He!!, give him a 1Bman’s glove and put Cabrera there and you’re a good bet to get two wins from the position for 800k. Lesser hitting (109 OPS+ compared with Rizzo at 118 from 2020 through 2022), but 15+ runs better on defense. Takes a whole lot of singles through the new shift rule to make up for that defense.
Rizzo would surely get 1/10m from someone, but no one is paying him close to 20m a year, particularly not over multiple years.
Deleted Userr
@DonnyElementary WRONG!
Holy Cow!
How about partial credit?
mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/14-players-receive-qual…
buckleydj
Phillies will be signing Rizzo to a 3 Yr, 54 Million dollar contract. Hoskins will be used in his final year before FA as a DH, or will be traded for a starter.
You heard it here first.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Nah
DarkSide830
I doubt I will be hearing it again.
drasco036
So I assume Harper doesn’t play in 2023?
BaseballisLife
Harper returns to the OF in 2023. Schwarber to DH where he belongs.
drasco036
Guess you forgot why Harper is DHing in the first place huh? Or did his arm magically heal without Tommy johns??
BaseballisLife
Guess you missed that the 2023 season is 5 months away and Harper said during this WS that he expects to play in the OF next season.
BaseballisLife
Recovery time for non-pitchers is 4 to 6 months.
Thomas E Snyder
Yuli Gurriel said the same thing about Game 6 of the World Series.
BaseballisLife
That seems like an entirely reasonable contract for Rizzo, although I don’t think it will be the Phillies offering it to him.
User 4245925809
Always been a Walker fan. Guy just gets it done. Stat freaks complain (and did before mets signed him) that he isn’t that good, but he, as well as others who know how to just pitch prove how wrong using just analytics to judge players are.
Of the iffy guys? Walker and Eovaldi believe are the 2 safest bets to repeat and be solid, mid rotation pieces. Others may have better “stuff” (Talion etc), but are bigger wild cards and imo.. Would jump all over a guaranteed 19m payday for a season.
Deleted Userr
QOing a player still doesn’t mean you aren’t giving him “more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps.” For 90% of players who receive a QO the QO is just a formality anyway.
amk1920
Tyler Anderson is a slam dunk for the QO. His value is 12-13 million a year, so that’s not much of an overpay to guarantee draft pick compensation
GabrielJames
I think Tyler Anderson is a lock to receive, and turn it down. Eovaldi is the only other one that is close for me. 50-50 whether he gets it.
Deleted Userr
Shouldn’t the Yankees do with Judge what the Dodgers are doing with Kershaw and decline to extend the QO so as to give him more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps? Since they paid the luxury tax they only stand to lose a 4th/5th round sandwich pick anyway.
Dorothy_Mantooth
Judge is a lock to receive the QO. His situation is much different than Kershaw’s as Kershaw was contemplating retirement so the Dodgers did the right thing by allowing him more time to make his decision. Judge is a lock to turn down the QO and the Yankees need to protect themselves by getting a comp pick for him should he decide to leave. Now that the Dodgers have put themselves into the Judge market, there’s a 50/50 chance he decides to leave NY.
Deleted Userr
Wouldn’t allowing Judge more time to make his decision also be doing the right thing?
Trafficked
Still the right thing to do ….. particularly if you were ACTUALLY planning on resigning him (they’re not) and offering him the best contract he can get (they won’t)
Deleted Userr
Who says the Yankees aren’t planning on doing that?
goob
@haram But how does that “allow him more time”? Either way, he can still sign with the Yankees – or whoever he wants to, whenever he wants to. There’s no time constraint on him, 10 days or otherwise. I mean, are you thinking that a player who rejects a QO can’t re-sign with the team that offered it after 1o days or something?? You can’t possibly think he’d consider accepting the QO, can you???
Deleted Userr
@goob Hey I’m just applying the same logic to Judge that this article is applying to Kershaw
goob
Kershaw’s situation and Judge’s situation aren’t even remotely analogous – whether you think this article (somehow?) implies that or not. Sheesh.
goob
Any idea that Judge’s earning power will be even slightly affected by a QO, or that Judge himself would take even the slightest umbrage at getting QO’d is ridiculous.
In this case, it would be a completely empty gesture to not offer the QO – by any reasonable measure.
Deleted Userr
@goob…
1. Their “situations,” whatever that even means, don’t have any bearing on the utility of the qualifying offer for either player. Since neither player would accept it, declining to extend it isn’t allowing either player more time to make a decision.
2. Kershaw’s earning power wouldn’t be affected by the QO either. And even if it would be, that is not the Dodgers FO’s problem.
3. Kershaw also wouldn’t take the slightest umbrage at getting QO’d. Franchise icons who are expected to stay anyway can and have received QO’s in the past. Like I said, for 90% of players who receive QO’s the QO is just a formality.
preauto
Tacos are the “S”
Dorothy_Mantooth
While I love what Eovaldi has done for Boston over the last 4 years, I’d be weary of offering him a QO at nearly $20M for one year. His back injury really affected him in the 2nd half of the season and his fastball velocity dropped by over 3mph after coming back. This seems like an injury that will continue to plague him in 2023 so I’m not sure if I’d gamble close to $20M on him should he decide to accept it. Boston should offer him a multi-year contract to return, but it should be for 3/$45M at the most.
acell10
you love what he did? outside of 2021 he was injured or downright bad. Hard pass on the QO. let someone else take that risk. I appreciate everything he did to help win the 2018 WS but time to move on.
BaseballisLife
3.72 in 80% of possible starts. 3.75 in 100% of starts. 3.87 in 62.5% of possible starts. 16th in IP in the AL.
Not sure what you are looking at.
BaseballisLife
23rd in ERA in the AL over 2020-2022. For a mid to back end starter that bis pretty dang good.
acell10
what I’m looking at is that he made 32 starts once in the three full seasons while on the red sox, had 5.99 ERA his first season full season where he only made 12 starts and 23 appearances, had only one season where he pitched over 180 innings. Aside from 2021. He was largely unavailable or bad. In his career he has 4.16 era, and has made over 30 starts twice. The Red Sox can and should do much better than that.
acell10
key words mid to back end starter.
BaseballisLife
Duh. Did you even read the article?
BaseballisLife
Now you want to try to bring 2019 into it after being shown you were wrong about your initial statement. Typical. 16th in IP. 23RD in ERA. GOOD for what he WAS in Boston and expected to be wherever he pitches in 2023.
acell10
You really need to work on your reading comprehension or your math skills. You asked me what I was looking at and to clarify since you seem to need it I said his entire tenure. My initial statement was a response to the post that Dorothy said that he loved what Eovaldi had done while he was in Boston for the past 4 years. My response was that while he was in Boston outside of 2021 he was either hurt or bad. that includes the year 2019. In case you forgot or just wanted to conveniently drop that fact from your argument he was still on the team and being paid in 2019. You’re the one who tried to change the argument and ignore facts not me.
As for the mid rotation part the if he accepts QO he isn’t going to paid like a mid or back end starter.
JoeBrady
For a mid to back end starter that bis pretty dang good.
==========================
Sure, if we got that from Hill, I’d be happy. From a $17M SP. not really. He had one really good year. The other three years he combined for an total of 12-6 with a 4.43 ERA. He wasn’t worth $68M/4.
I might still offer him a QO, but the contract didn’t work out.
jmi1950
I give all 3 a QO> Reasons :Bogey –DUH; Wacha 90% he turns it down looking for at least 3 yrs. if he accepts, “there are no bad 1 yr” gambles for a Red Sox team in bad need of innings.. Evo — same reasons as Wacha.
If both Wacha and Evo are signed I would back them up with a 2d half contract for Hill — none of those 3 get the “yips” at Fenway and all can handle the Boston fans/Press. Then sign 2 or three solid relievers. If they don’t sign any costly long term starters they can use that flexibility on Bogey/Devers extensions
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Turner stays…Turner #2 stays…Kershaw stays…Anderson stays…Hanser stays…Bellinger stays.
amk1920
They are not bringing back the entire same old vanilla team lmao. Even the front office internally knew they looked so pathetic in the playoffs.
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If they were so plain and vanilla how did they win so many regular season games? Didn’t they dominate SD all year?
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Trea Turner…Freddie Freeman…Mookie Betts…I would hardly call that Vanilla. What other team has 3 of the best hitters in the game?
amk1920
The Dodgers cannot rely on Justin Turner to be a starter anymore. The Dodgers are not going to bring back Hanser Alberto who was terrible and somehow a position player known more for mop up. The Dodgers are not going to pay Cody Bellinger 18 million when he has been a complete liability for a while now.
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We shall see soon I guess.
Javia135
Juan Soto…Fernando Tatis…Manny Machado.
Lifetime OPS+:
Turner- 121, Betts- 134, Freeman- 152
Machado- 126, Soto- 157, Tatis- 160
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Tatis Machado and Soto…Ok ya got me. Haven’t seen Tatis in a while…I forgot about him….
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I agree that Belli is gone and Hanser gets a minor league deal with invite to ST
jdgoat
I will be upset if the Blue Jays don’t QO Stripling while only having Gausman and Manoah as reliable options in the rotation. I feel like it’s 50/50 that he’d accept anyways, and either outcome is more than alright in my opinion. Either take the pick or overpay for one year hoping he can replicate his success. I’d QO Anderson and Perez as well if I were the Dodgers or Rangers. Its likely the last year for these three pitchers to cash in on a large multi year deal. I’m sure they’d rather have the commitment instead of the higher salary on a one year deal.
Diggydugler
Agreed, Atkins is in a tough self inflicted spot given the contracts given out to Ryu, Berrios and Kikuchi and their performance (or existence in Ryu’s case). While I dont think Ross is worth $19M/year, it is not absurdly overpaid as its only 1 year and the Jays simply dont have the starting pitching to field a team without him. It really depends on who they are targeting in FA if they dont offer the QO to Strip, and I have my doubts they will be better than Strip,
bullred
I hope they don’t QO Stripling and just go after him with a great offer. 2x14m with a mutual 3rd yr. at 14 as well. The jays should value Strip more than other teams would.
KamKid
I’m more than alright with one year at the QO rate for Stripling. Though I was surprised to see their CBT calculation only $16m or so away from the threshold. They could save a few bucks in non tenders but I do think that maybe they might need to turn to trade if the tax is going to be a deterrent. Or even a multi year deal for someone in the Stripling tier to lower the AAV and tax calculation.
MPrck
If I had to bet, I’d say the emergence of Pena as a world class SS an hitter, will make Verlander staying in Houston no big deal. Houston looks to be the type of powerhouse to get Verlander to 300 wins, or at least most of the way there.
Houston is a powerhouse,, and the Verlander’s likes it there. What if Houston goes after Abreu ? I can’t even imagine how powerful that addition would make Houston ? Pena, is just awesome enough, and what a future the team has with him. No, “Verlander’s best chance to get to 300 means staying there.
avenger65
I think if Baker stays, Verlander stays. how close is Verlander to 300 wins?
Endersgame
Verlander is sitting at 244 career wins right now, so 3 great seasons away. I guess the big question at this point is how important is 300 wins to Verlander? And if he really values getting there, can his body hold up long enough?
Tomas7
I know I’m dreaming, but I would like to see Rodon in Queens with the Mets.
SodoMojo90
The Mariners need to MAKE SURE Haniger stays. We made the playoffs this year pretty much without him so if we can get a healthy year from him next year….
Endersgame
Absolutely agreed. If Haniger stays, the Mariners just need to sort out LF. Do they count on a rebound from Winker? Do they trust Trammell/Kelenic to finally take an important step forward? Do they believe that Haggerty is a full-time LF?
If they can bring back Haniger, does that bring back enough thump that they can try to bring back Adam Frazier and hope for some sort of bounceback from him?
IjustloveBaseball
Has to be the most prominent crop of two-time TJ recipients to hit the market; will be interesting to see how the market views them.
azcm2511
Since when did a ,224 BA become “good”? I must have lost touch because I don’t see how Rizzo and his crappy numbers could be considered for a qualifying offer.
BaseballisLife
131 OPS+. 31% better than league average. 132 wRC+. 32% better than league average. .818 OPS That is very good. Maybe you need to pull your head out of the 19th century. We are in the 21st now.
Deleted Userr
*Insert typical “Pads Fans” jargon here* – “BaseballisLife”
Say Hey Now Kid
Pretend the Mets let all of their QOs walk. How do the draft picks work?
eatonculo
Is Contreras really a lock for a qualifying offer from the Cubs?
I’ve heard otherwise, but that’s probably just wishful thinking.
JoeBrady
I find the “you heard otherwise” to be the interesting part. I’d like to hear the logic that an AS, 4 WAR,30 year old catcher wouldn’t get a QO. Wishful thinking indeed.
whitebeard
His career stats, health record and poor catcher metrics.
eatonculo
The comment I heard was more about Contreras eventually signing a three- or four-year deal with an AAV more like $16 million. With this year’s QO at $19.65 million, does that make sense for the Cubs? What if he takes it and pushes free agency back another year?
They also mentioned how the Cubs seemed relatively eager to move on from Contreras. With his (as whitebeard mentioned) career stats, health record, and poor catcher metrics, how many teams would be willing to sign him to a longer contract that would make turning down the QO a good decision for Contreras?
I don’t know. They just made a QO for Contreras sound more like a “probably” than a “lock.”
Deleted Userr
If he takes it and pushes free agency back a year the Cubs would be doing cartwheels. They clearly aren’t eager to move on from him considering they didn’t trade him. In fact, they basically have to QO him at this point. After refusing to trade him, letting him walk for nothing would be completely inexcusable.
Most players would rather sign for 4/$64m than 1/$19.65m. Players care more about term than AAV. If he can get 4/$64 in free agency the QO makes all the sense in the world for the Cubs.
Tons of teams would be willing to sign him to a longer contract that would make turning down the QO a good decision for Contreras.
Contreras will 100% receive a QO and he will 100% reject it.
Jean Matrac
Agree with everything you say except. that the Cubs weren’t “…eager to move on from him considering they didn’t trade him”.
They didn’t trade him because the return wasn’t good enough. They would have gladly traded him had it been, And the return wasn’t good enough because teams just aren’t willing to gamble on throwing a new catcher into the mix, in regards to handling the pitching staff.
Plus, these days, teams are placing a higher value on prospects. A lot of guys expected to be traded haven’t been because teams aren’t as willing to part with prospects as they were before.
JackStrawb
@tad2b13 In the Mets case, they thought they were desperate for help at DH (failing once again to realize they had the solution on hand—JDDavis went on to put up a career best OPS+ in SF) and could have used Contreras at DH while seeding him into the catching rotation and seeing how it went.
Instead they traded away 4 useful players including 20 years of team control for the Ridiculous Ruf, and dealt Holderman for Vogelbach. There’s no way the Mets couldn’t have packaged those 5 players and money and failed to get Contreras.
Jean Matrac
I don’t agree. I think if the Cubs were offered those 5 for Contreras they say no. It’s only my opinion since I have no idea what the Cubs think about those players.
But, Wisdom had better numbers than Davis did at the time of the trade. Davis’ production was unanticipated, as was Szapucki’s. Seymour was a 6th round selection and Zwack went in the 17th. I don’t think the Cubs give up the pick they’ll get for that.
JackStrawb
Davis and Szapucki’s production were only unanticipated by the Mets. The SF FO laughed uproariously at getting 4 for 1 for Ruf. Davis had put up a better OPS+ from 2019-2021 than some of the most elite 3Bman in baseball. Only the Mets failed to see why their 29 yo had fallen off a cliff.
Don’t you find it interesting that players leave the Mets and IMMEDIATELY become vastly better? Two players leave a bad organization that is far from finding its footing and instantly get turned around? That’s on the Mets, entirely.
As for the Cubs deciding that 26 years (!) of player control including an excellent DH wasn’t worth two months of Contreras time, how is that possible? The minor leaguers weren’t throwaways, they’re good players with real upside. Take a look at their Baseball-reference pages and tell me they aren’t worth WC, a 3-4 win 30 yo catcher, a nice player but hardly Ohtani.
There’s also no chance this sets some sort of precedent that the Cubs are easy pickins’ at the deadline. This is a nice, nice haul, but instead, Eppler Epplered. He spread around what he had to offer, lest he be subject to criticism if he went for the best player, but only one player, and that player failed.
It’s all too typical of what bad executives do.
Jean Matrac
You may be right about Davis. I was looking at 2021, but you’re correct, he has a much better recent history than this last season would indicate. Not sure why, but apparently they preferred Escobar.
But I thinking you’re making the wrong comparison. I don’t think it’s 26 years of player control vs 2 months. Its those players vs what they can draft with the comp pick.
Holderman, the Mets’ #10, projects to be the best of the bunch, and he has a 40+ FV.. The other guys, except Seymour, have only a 40 FV. Seymour doesn’t look to have even been a Mets’ top 30. The Cubs are hoping to draft a guy with a 45, 45+, or 50 FV, with their pick. They chose potential quality over quantity.
Deleted Userr
@tad2b13 My definition of “eager to move on from” a player is that the team is willing to trade him for cash considerations in the amount of one dollar. So unless the Cubs weren’t even offered that then it isn’t true that they were eager to move on from Contreras.
In any event. If they don’t want to look like the Rockies the QO for Contreras is a must. And considering he started the ASG this year there’s basically no chance he takes it.
Deleted Userr
JackStrawb appears to have hit me with the mute, but I wanted to make sure he was recognized for pointing out that taking what they could get for Contreras at the deadline wouldn’t have set any sort of precedent about the Cubs being easy pickins. Even if you know a team is going to trade a player you still have to be the highest bidder. And if you try to lowball them and they trade that player to someone else you have to answer to your fans why you didn’t just suck it and pay the price.
Deleted Userr
“Is Contreras really a lock for a qualifying offer from the Cubs?”
Yes. Yes he is.
htbnm57
Phillies will let Gibson, Eflin and Thor hit free agency. The big question is if they let Segura go , sign a SS and move Stott to 2b. Bohm has settled in at 3B and Marsh is the CF. Do the Phillies trade Hoskins and let Hall be their 1B ? The Phillies will be looking at a SP to bridge to the youngsters coming up and the end of Nola’s contract which hopefully they resign.