The Phillies came up short in their quest to win their third World Series title, ending a roller-coaster of a season with hot streaks, cold streaks, a managerial replacement, and an injury to their star player. Despite all this tumult, Philadelphia danced their way to their first playoff appearance since 2011 and their first World Series berth since 2009, defeating the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres en route to the Fall Classic.
As the franchise pivots to off-season mode, they will have a few questions to answer starting with Jean Segura. Previously discussed in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Series, Segura headlines a relatively weak second-base free agent class, and the Phillies currently hold a $17MM club option with a $1MM buyout on the veteran’s 2023 service. On the heels of a solid 2022 season which saw him post a .277/.336/386 slash line, the Phillies may opt to save money and use a combination of Edmundo Sosa and Bryson Stott to man second base, having rumored interest in long-time Red Sox Xander Bogaerts.
For his part, Segura has expressed a desire to remain in Philadelphia, having told the media, “to be honest, there’s nothing more special than playing in front of Phillies fans…It’s just a pleasure to be able to play in front of those amazing fans,” reports Tim Kelly of Phillies Nation. Segura went on to add that he “would love to finish my career in Philadelphia.”
The Phillies currently have an estimated 2023 Payroll of $161MM, per Roster Resource. After having spent $242MM this past season, the club is expected to continue to add to their core of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber along with younger players such as Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, and Stott.
For his part, Harper is sure that President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and owner John Middleton are going to add to the team, telling reporters that “we’re gonna be the same team but with some more pieces to make us that much better,” per NBC Sports Philadelphia. Manager Rob Thomson shares a similar sentiment, telling reporters after the game that the Phillies roster is “sustainable,” going on to explain that Philadelphia has “a good group of veteran guys, and our system is starting to get loaded up with very good arms at the end of the minor league system,” per Maria McIlwain of The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Harper, despite being diagnosed with a tear in his right UCL in early May, slashed a strong .286/.364/.514 with 18 homers, earning his first trip to the All-Star game in a Phillies uniform. He missed additional time during the season, initially landing on the 10-day IL in late June with a fractured left thumb before being shifted to the 60-day IL in mid-August. Nevertheless, due to the introduction of the universal DH, the Phillies were able to use Harper in a DH-only fashion, salvaging a season from their star player. This rule change helped the Phillies reach the postseason, in which Harper slashed an outlandish .349/.414/.746 with 6 homers in 63 at-bats.
Now that the 2022 season is officially over, Harper’s rehabilitation plan will likely come to light in the upcoming days. Position players that have recently suffered damage to their UCL include Dodgers’ infielder Max Muncy at the end of the 2021 season and Rangers’ shortstop Corey Seager at the start of the 2018 season. Muncy opted not to undergo surgery and said that the recovery was not as quick as he had hoped and that six months after the injury, he wasn’t fully recovered. In contrast, Seager underwent surgery and missed the remainder of the season before returning for the 2020 season. Harper and the Phillies have not indicated which route he will take, but, depending on the severity of the injury, the start of his 2023 season may be delayed.
There’s a big difference in tearing the UCL in the non-throwing elbow vs the throwing elbow. Gleyber Torres tore his none throwing and was out about 6 months I believe. Harper should get the surgery and rehab it properly. He can DH while he builds back up to throwing once he is cleared to do so like Ohtani did a couple years ago. He won’t need as significant as a buildup as a pitcher but who knows how long that’ll be exactly.
Rehab for previous OF that have had Tommy John on their throwing arm has ranged from 4 months to 10 months.
I love Segura, but I think they need more consistent on base guys. Segura is very streaky, like most of the offense. I’d hate to move away from one of my favorite players, but getting into the SS market and moving Stott to 2B may be an option. I also think they need a #3-4 starter as pitching depth was a clear issue for most of the season and the World Series. Should be an interesting offseason. I hope I don’t have to wait another 11 years for a playoff appearance, but I do think this team is very close to being great. Nicky C needs to bounceback in a big way because year 1 was a huge letdown.
What do you think about a 6/195 deal with an option for a 7th with a $6 million buyout for Bogaerts and move Stotts to 2B?
Much prefer Turner to Bogaerts.
Don’t love Bogaerts on the Phils, but it’s not a terrible idea. Definitely see Turner as a better fit if they splurge. I wouldn’t even mind sticking with Stott if they look for a 2B to replace Segura.
Turner is asking for 10 years and to beat the Seager deal. That is a huge commitment for a player going into his age 30 season.
And if some team is willing to meet that asking price, you move on. I don’t think he’s going to beat or even match Seager.
Apparently, the Phils need to find good two strike bunters. I hope Schwarbs hears “BUNT BUNT BUNT” from fans around baseball and especially Mets fans. What a legendarily bone head move.
I mean it was not great, but it’s not why they lost and their offense was getting shutdown outside of 1 solo dinger. Needed baserunners desperately.
Segura option will be declined. I can see Phillies signing a SS, SP(behind Wheeler, and Nola) and some bullpen arms. I also think Hoskins could be traded(he made 7.5 this year but thru arbitration is looking at 14-15mil)
Yup. These are the key highlights.
I wonder if the make a play for the Japan star who wants to play with Harper. It’s worth watching over the off season
Not sure where he would play? Schwarber/Marsh/Harper in the OF with Castellanos DH’ing would pretty much eliminate any available spot for him.
I keep hearing rumors that Schwarber will eventually be moved to first base… also, odds are Harper is DHing again due to his injury and recovery.
I’m curious if the Phillies will move on from castellanos after one season… I get that Phillies we’re close to a title but they have several areas they need to improve and moving most of Castellanos would be more beneficial than having him in the line up.
How do you go about moving Castellanos? They would definitely be selling low and eating a lot of money. They basically have no choice other than bringing him back and hoping he improves.
I think eating 5 million aav would get the job done honestly. Perhaps sending a good enough prospect would entice a team like the Cubs to eat the entire deal and/or take back Bote in return.
Imo, it would have to be a team like the Cubs who have a lot of payroll space, have comfort with Castellanos and have a DH spot open for him. The Cubs could also move Happ in trade or back to center, opening up LF.
Castellanos is owed 80 over the next four years, if I’m the Cubs, I want 20 million from the Phillies which would allow me to DFA him for basically no cost his last year if the deal doesn’t work out. Phillies take David Bote and send the Cubs roughly 10 million, in return the Cubs get Castellanos. Payments from Phillies start after Bote’s contract ends.
Why would the Phillies want Bote?
They wouldn’t… but a 4.5 million AAV would be better than a 20 million aav. Of course the Phillies could just send the Cubs 20 million along castellanos or 10 million and get a wild card in Bote.
Castellanos can easily have a bounceback year. Offensively, his season was not the norm. I don’t see the Phillies giving up after 1 bad season.
Yes he could… him bouncing back has nothing to do with the Phillies payroll and needs.
The Phillies currently sit at 170 million but that doesn’t include options of Nola, Eflin and Segura. They want to make a play on Bogaerts (rumored), you can only imagine they want to make a run on starting pitching which will be 15-20 million conservatively and they need to add to the bullpen.
The Phillies could easily decline Segura, which would create a significant hole at second, and decline Eflin which would give them wiggle room but probably not enough to make the improvements and stay under the luxury tax. They could also deal Hoskins, not a horrible idea but doesn’t improve your team. Maybe a taste of the World Series motivates the Phillies to spend into the luxury tax but how much being second time offenders and a high likelihood of being 3+
Doubtful any team wants Castellanos after the year he just had. Phillies are stuck with him for the time being.
They’re is no possible way that Castellanos gets dealt. It’s not even worth thinking about because it literally won’t happen. Dombrowski convinced Middleton to go over the tax for the first time ever to get Nick. They aren’t giving up on him after one season.
He can also easily continue to decline. It wouldn’t be unheard of for guys to start falling off the cliff @ 30.
I agree with most evaluations here. One, unfortunately Segura is too expensive at anything over 10m. Even then I think he’s gone. Stott to 2nd and add Turner at SS gives us a true lead off hitter and solids D up the middle.
As far as Hoskins, I’m sorry but he’s not worth what he’s going to get in Arb. He’s a huge liability at first base and has no discipline or zone recognition at the plate. Castellanos needs better plate awareness, but we’re stuck with his contract. Move Schwarber to 1B and Cass to LF
A playoff worthy 4th starter is key. I wouldn’t want to pay Jean 16 million but if cheap enough bring him back or get another ss to play 2b.
Maybe Segura will find his way back to Anaheim.
No thanks
From what I saw in the World Series, the Phillies need more pitching.
I agree, but I also find that statement ironic. Every game they losrlt was because of their offense getting shutdown. The pitching did just fine.
When it comes to adding a SP, let’s not forget about Eflin in 2023. He’s a solid #4 or #5. Wheeler, Nola and Ranger lock up one through three in the rotation. Put Eflin fourth. Could be crazy, but would not shock me if Painter is part of the rotation by the middle of June.
Eflin is a FA.
I don’t think Eflin will be back. The Phils have a $15 million option on him. I don’t think he’s worth it based on his knee history
Didn’t their starters have an era of ~5.5?
The Phillies hit a combined .163 in the World Series with a no hitter. The pitching at least kept them from being ousted in 5
Over a span of 30 innings from the sixth inning of Game 3 through the end of the World Series, Phillies hitters went 9 for 98 for a pitcher-esque batting average of .092.
This statement above tells you something has to change. Segura is not worth 17 million. Rhys needs to go too. He had some great playoff at bats but overall he is what he is. The Harper
The Astros pitching, particularly their bullpen, does that to all teams, including very good hitting teams.
Astros pitching is great, but the Phillies offense played like this all year. Sometimes explosive. Sometimes asleep. Credit to the Stros pitching, but that Phillies offense needs to take some of the blame.
the same thing happened to the Cardinals in the wild card series. Goldschmidt and Arenado didn’t hit. Phillies in two.
The lineup needs two high contact/OB hitters. Turner or Boegarts fixes part of that. Yoshida could be the other piece. Michael Brantley is a very interesting fit if his shoulder is healed.
The rotation could use someone like Verlander and then roll with Falter and eventually Painter for the 5th spot.
The Bullpen needs a legit closer and another high octane arm to go with a few veteran flyers.
The bench is set.
Please roll out the exact same roster so that way when you finish .500 we can all see how much of a fluke this run was.
Such a dumb statement. First off. Between injuries and Girardi, they struggled out of the gate. Since June, they had almost the same winning % as your Mets. That’s consistency. It’s no fluke.
If you ignore when they were bad, they were good!
From the time they fired Girardi, the Phillies had the 3rd most wins in baseball…without Harper for 2 months and Castellanos struggling all year. But yeah, it was a fluke.
Njbirdsfan needs attention. Awwwwww
You’re showing the huge drop off in intelligence between Phillies fans and Eagles fans. Props for being dumb.
Hall should be starting 1b next season, Rhys gotta go
I’m not quite sold on Hall.
Agree about Hall, Von. Whole lotta swing-and-miss in his game. Might just be a LH version of Hoskins with perhaps a slightly better glove.
He is Rhys at a cheaper cost…………yeah I know he`s a lefty but, couple the saving with Segura walking and get Turner at SS
He’s definitely not Rhys. Nowhere near as good offensively. People are down on Hoskins, but Hall won’t give you those offensive numbers.
What did I miss? Hopkins put up a .794 OPS and 122 OPS+. That’s 22% above MLB average for all players and 14% above average for 1B. Why would anyone think he is bad?
Yeah man, Hoskins is a real bum with his career .846 OPS and 36 HRs per 162 games.
Yea. Philly fans are a bit harsh on their own guys. Hoskins is a stud. He is just frustrating to watch.
I shudder to imagine how Philly fans would handle having Ryan Mountcastle as their starting 1B. They’d probably lynch him in the parking lot in the middle of one of his weeks-long cold streaks.
Stud? He’s a 2ish fwar player. He’s a decent regular. You call out people for being harsh then immediately over rate him.
He’s not a good 1B. So his WAR isn’t going to be the key stat. He would be a superstar DH on any other squad. The Phillies roster construction forces them to play at 1B which isn’t ideal. But him pn another roster and he’s definitely a stud. Our roster is a mess in some ways.
Thank you King. This talk about Rhys annoys me to no end. He’s basically the new Bobby Abreu. The fanbase blames him for everything.
Hall can field also…….And will hit 25-30hrs
Would prefer Phillies trade Hall to Pirates for one of their pitching prospects. Read somewhere that the Pirates used 14 different 1B in 2021-2022 seasons combined.
Pirates could use Hall but doubt they would trade any young pitchers.
Look for Philly to add former Dombrowski-era Red Sox, Eovaldi and Bogaerts. Both are perfect fits.
Look for them to add Dombrowski-era Red Sox—Eovaldi and maybe Bogaerts. Although Boegaerts doesn’t really help with speed or D. They may even add Christian Vasquez who won’t cost that much and would let them spell Rraalmutu.
To me Eovaldi is a lock. Bogaerts is a big bat that they like but doesn’t improve the speed or defense. However, with all the other bat-first starters, Trea Turner would be the best SS fit, moving Stott to 2B,
Agree 100% on Turner. Much prefer him to all the other FA shortstops. Plus, he’s supposedly Harper’s all-time favorite teammate.
So where is Hoskins being traded to this offseason? My money is they make him suffer and send him to Pittsburgh.
John Rocker Fan Club? I’m guessing there isn’t a New York City chapter!
Certain players will be retained while a thorough evaluation will lead to others not being retained according to Jon Heyman.
I think trading Hoskins for a SS, movng Bohm to 1B, and Stott to 2B would make them better defensively. I obviously don’t follow the Phils every day, but I just haven’t been impressed with Stott in the times I’ve watched him. His prospect pedigree says he should get more opportunities, but I wouldn’t make plans around him as my starting SS going forward.
After a rough start where he went something like 6-66, Stott actually did pretty well with the bat. He has modest pop and has a penchant for working long at bats that, even if they don’t result in a hit, at least tax the pitcher. He was fine defensively, although I believe his range and arm are more suited for 2B than SS.
He looked pretty overmatched in the postseason. I was surprised they kept running him out there.
The World Series? Yes. Outside of Game 1 he didn’t do much. The postseason he had some great at bats and big moments.
Actually Bohm improved greatly on defense at 3B as the year progressed. He did quite well in the postseason there.
This take doesn’t work. Bohm doesn’t hit for enough power to play 1st. His defense at 3rd also drastically improved at the end of the year. He’s earned a shot there for a bit to see if the improvements stick.
Seager was back for the 2019 season (article says 2020).
God I hope I never see Hoskins take another Ab for Philly again
A trade of Hoskins would open up playing time at 1B for Schwarber. It would increase the outfield defense. Maybe get a speedy fielder out there with Marsh and Castellanos if Harper can’t play defense.
He had one of the best postseasons in Phillies history, unfortunately he was shutdown in the WS. Hoskins is what he is. A great underrated slugger, and a terrible glove. I think Philly isn’t a great fit only because they have a lot of that, but I still think Hoskins is underappreciated. He’d be one of the better DH’s around for another club.
Hitting .159 with some of the most non competitive, deer in head lights at bats is one the best postseasons in Phillies history?
He also mixed in 6 home runs, which isn’t a minor thing.
4 of those home runs were in 2 games
He single handedly won games with his bat. 6 homers. 12 RBIs and 9 runs in 17 games. That’s impressive. But sure let’s look at average.
Also, people are not giving the Astros pitching enough credit. They shutdown Aaron Judge. They shutdown the entire Phils offense in 4 games. They’re arguably one of the most complete pitchin staffs ever assembled. But yes…let’s continue to blame Hoskins when the entire roster was shutdown.
4 of those 6 home runs came in 2 games. And he “single handedly won games with his bat”? Ok. Because you know the bullpen didn’t do anything. .159/.205/.435. Stats matter. You can say he had some of the greatest moments in Phillies postseason history but to day he had one of the greatest postseasons in Phillies history is a bit of a reach. I’m not blaming Hoskins, but I’m also not going to praise the guy for a few good moments sprinkled into lifeless at bats and terrible defense
What people are not giving the Astros pitching enough credit? That was one of the most dominant post season performances in history
I think people are calling at bats “lifeless” without realizing the Stros do that to everyone. Aaron Judge did nothing against them. One of the best hitters in the league. Hoskins playoff performance was impressive. I don’t understand why it’s any less impressive that 4 homers came in 2 games. So what? He’s a slugger who showed up in the playoffs. Lots of great hitters don’t.
Trade him to the Cardinals who have zero worthwhile outfielders. He’ll look good in LF.
No he won’t. Hoskins has played OF before. It’s not pretty.
I’ve seen it. His bat will play. That’s why he’ll be in left. We had Ozuna for two years in left years. I don’t recall seeing Rhys scale a wall to watch the ball fall in front of him once, much less twice like Marcell.
Hoskins is marginal at 1B , completely unplayable anywhere else in the field. He would make a great DH if the Phillies already have 3.
It’s a tough decision, but I think it’s best for the team to let Segura walk. His production is declining and his $ is pretty steep. Let Stott take over 2B and sign a younger SS. Doesn’t have to be Bogaerts… maybe a deal for Rosario for 1 year? Let Stott play 2B and then take over short down the road.
Then go after a top starter or 2 mid level starters.
A rotation of Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, Syndergaard and Manaea would be very solid.
Manaea turned into a pumpkin in the second half. That might make him more affordable, but I’d steer clear if I was PHI.
Hoskins is younger than Schwarber by a few days
Cant trade Hoskins because of how everyone in the clubhouse likes him. What you can do is let the season play out and let go into FA next off season and say that we were out bid by another team and could not afford to bring him back. This way you don’t piss off the clubhouse.
That’s my take as well…Hoskins warts and all is a leader. And maybe in his walk year…his game is upped a bit.
Only problem is if Harper starts a Hoskins need an extension…ooomph…
I think Turner changes the offense. Speed next year will be important. Stott moves to second and explore trades for Hoskins. For next year they could look at a Hall/Verling platoon at first. Get another bullpen arm or two as well as a starting pitcher.
Turner is a player, Trade Rhys and put Shwarber at first, he was a catcher previously
70 million coming off the books why not sign Turner and let the season ride with Rhys and see whats what.
He was a catcher the same way Bryce was a catcher.
Okay??
“Harper and the Phillies have not indicated which route he will take, but, depending on the severity of the injury, the start of his 2023 season may be delayed.”
Comma problems again.
“Harper and the Phillies have not indicated which route he will take, but depending on the severity of the injury, the start of his 2023 season may be delayed.”