According to reports back in September, the Phillies were planning to pursue Xander Bogaerts once the free agent market opened, and that plan apparently remains intact two months later. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Philadelphia is “believed to have real interest in” making Bogaerts the latest big-ticket addition to the roster.
Since Bogaerts received a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject from the Red Sox, the Phillies will have an extra price to pay in compensation for a signing, since Philadelphia exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2022. To sign Bogaerts or any other QO-rejecting free agent, the Phils would have to give up $1MM of their international bonus pool, and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft.
Fellow star shortstops Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are also attached to draft compensation, so theoretically, the Phillies might prefer Carlos Correa if they’re going to shop from the top shelf of the shortstop market. Since Correa rejected a qualifying offer last winter, he is ineligible to receive another QO, and thus could be signed without any compensation. Of course, this also gives Correa extra appeal to other teams, which doesn’t necessarily help the Phillies in a bidding war.
It is expected that the Phils will at least check in on all of these shortstops, but Bogaerts also has a personal connection with Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who was Boston’s PBO from 2015-19. That stint saw the Red Sox win a World Series in 2018, and Bogaerts sign the six-year, $120MM extension that he has now opted out of, in order to test the market this winter.
Since the Phillies declined their $17MM club option Jean Segura for 2023, the Phils suddenly have a hole in their infield that could be pretty cleanly filled by signing Bogaerts. Bryson Stott would move over to second base, and Bogaerts could step right in as Philadelphia’s new everyday shortstop. Edmundo Sosa’s emergence after joining the Phillies in a midseason trade also puts him into the mix, though Sosa could be moved around the diamond — splitting time with Stott at second base, getting the occasional appearance in left field, or spelling Alec Bohm at third base.
Between Segura’s declined club option and Zach Eflin declining his end of a mutual option, the Phillies have roughly $179.3MM in payroll on the books for 2023, and a luxury tax number of just under $190.8MM. Assuming Bogaerts signed a contract in the range of MLBTR’s projection of a $27MM average annual value, that would still leave Dombrowski with some room under the $233MM tax line to make any further roster adds. Of course, this assumes that the Phillies are overly concerned with resetting their tax bill. After winning the NL pennant in 2022, ownership might not mind a second straight year of overages if it means adding a player like Bogaerts who could put the Phils over the top for a World Series title.
Guardians would trade Ahmed Rosario for Kyle Schwarber
Maybe if Philly ate 3/4 of Schwarber’s contract 😉
King Floch;
Cleveland already has 87 LH hitting OF’s.
@samuel
Schwarber isn’t really an OF so that has no bearing on their interest.
Phillies are not trading Schwarber
Scwarber is a huge reason the Phillies made the playoffs and WS.
Schwarber is Mr. Clutch.
When Harper was out for 3+ months, Schwarber, JT etc helped carry the Phillies offense.
Schwarber will play out his contract in Phillie.
TREA
They likely have interest in all four of the big-name shortstops.
Oh so Scott Bor…sorry Jon Heyman says the Phillies are interested? I’m shocked.
Exactly. Heyman is a complete hack and nothing more than a mouthpiece for his cronies. How everyone doesn’t see through his lies I’ll never know.
Funny. This period of the postseason should be named – maybe the Boras Interlude, 2 weeks set aside for Scott Boras proxies to spread rumors and implant memories.
If the phillies and the padres add to their teams this off season and I expect they will.
Going to make it real tough for any team outside of the top 6 dodgers, mets, braves, cards, phillies and padres to make the playoffs. At least barring major injuries or poor performance.
Giants and brewers are the only 2 teams that may have a shot.
The Brewers are going to have to start rebuilding, I believe anyway. Ownership refuses to spend money.
I’m not sure how much the Padres can add… they are spending a ton of money already.
I expect the Cubs to be active and flex some financial muscle. They have a lot of “cap” space and have an additional 60 million coming off the books in 2024. They may get wild and sign a top short stop and then I see short term staggered contracts. If it will be enough or actually happen though remains to be seen
The Brewers have dual aces in Burnes and Woodruff, plus several other solid starters They can compete.
All the rumors are they will trade one of their aces
It’s little more than pundit speculation. I’ll believe it when I see it.
So trading Hader in the middle of a playoff run wasn’t a glance into the looking glass?
@drasco, what does Bader being traded by the Cardinals have to do with the Brewers future plans???
That isn’t quite an apples to apples comparison, IMO. As good as Hader had been during his Brewers tenure, he was still just a reliever at the end of the day, and not only did they have Devin Williams ready to step right into the closer role, but they also got an established reliever back in the deal (Taylor Rogers) to plug the hole in the bullpen opened up by Hader’s departure.
Seriously??
I meant to say(before my comment was locked out)
1 or 2 expensive contracts will not make the Cubs a viable playoffs team.
(I was not meaning to comment on the Phillies chances since they have already been to the mountain top).
I think a minor improvement to the Diamondbacks pitching staff will result in at least a playoff push. One of the hottest teams in the second half
Arizona went 34-36 in the second half. Maybe you’re thinking of a different team.
Bogaerts will be this year’s deal of regret. He’s an old man playing a young man’s position seeking a long term commitment.
notting – I know you think making ageist posts is cool, but you’re not doing yourself any favors by calling someone who just turned 30 an “old man”. .. especially right after coming off a SS season in which he also was a GG runnerup. With the shape he is in, he will give at least 5 more good years at SS. Plenty of other shortstops have excelled into their mid-late 30’s, heck Crawford won GG last year at Age 34.
Yes because teams never take age into account when evaluating players and the northside of 30 equates the strongest years of someone’s body.
“Ageist”? In a game largely for stars and men in their 20s? Ageism is randomly poking people merely for being old without reference to specifics. This isn’t that.
As for Bogaerts, he’s an old (going on 30) 4-6 win SS coming off a solid year with an uptick on defense. You don’t want to sign him for 6 years, but you probably have to, which might mean some fool gives him more. In any case, when in doubt, project:
2023 – 2028: 4.7, 4.1, 3.5, 2.8, 2.1, 1.4
Total: 18.6 WAR
18.6 * 8m = $149m
Meanwhile he’s projected for 7/189m in the top 50 FA article, so that presumes someone’s going to add 2m a year and throw in an additional year. Seems foolish for an old (sorry) SS when any smart team should be able to come up with a slick fielding 2 win 21 yo SS for 700k—given fielding peaks in a player’s early 20s.
.
“Ageist”?
==================
It’s true. When I offered to play SS for the RS, they told me they don’t try out guys collecting Social Security.
They are also ableists since I don’t think they thought highly of me running a 10.1 40-yard dash, or taking a break halfway thru running from HP to 1st.
I think Bogaerts defense improved this year because he was playing for the biggest payday he will ever get. I think his defense will regress next year without that incentive.
You expect people tossing around words like that to actually understand what they mean?
Don’t want to sign him for six years?
I disagree. Six seems about perfect – which is why it’s unlikely. Somebody’s going to dangle 8 or 10 and screw the market up.
Joe- The Red Sox told me that you were off the table when you said that you saw Rico Petrocelli play.
I still do not get how the $8M per WAR was calculated.
If a replacement team would win 40 games a year,and an average one would win 80 games,and the average team salary total is between $160-200 M,the WAR should be worth about $4.5M.
@notting
Being a gold glove runner up is meaningless. Saying he will be a good SS for 5 more years when he’s only had one to this point that was even (slightly) above average is humorous. I believe DD will look for s solid defensive SS first. Maybe XB could replace Seguro @ 2B. The other thing to keep in mind is that DD has a front office that does not leak to the press. That makes it easy to doubt any public rumor.
He’s a year older than Turner and 2 years older than Correa. You say it as though he’s 35
Of course they are. Dombrowski already said as much.
bcjd – Dombrowski didn’t even need to say it. He signed Xander to his most recent contract, so DD obviously thinks highly of him.
So DD thought he would be worth $20MM this year, and you say that was thinking highly of him? Doesn’t make me think he’s the likely payee to XBs next contract!
Please no. We should be improving the defense not going backwards. One average season doesn’t all of a sudden make Xander a viable defender. Turner or Correa if not keep Stott.
I agree that Correa should be their target if they intend to sign one of the big 4 SS’s. A left side of the infield comprised of Bohm and Bogaerts could be disastrous if they revert to their career norms.
Phillies going for an All-Star team of poor defenders.
Makes em fun to watch !
Yeah, that defense really burned them this year. Nearly won the World Series.
Wish my team would get burned like that.
The Phillies had the FORTH best fielding team in MLB this year. Look it up!
mikemcsaudi;
Trolls can’t keep up.
22nd by uzr/150 | 25th by DRS
The words jon Heyman and New York post should mean only one thing:. Here is something made up to try to get attention.
Perfect fit ! He’s everything they were hoping they’d get in didi. And who cares about the 29th pick when you can’t draft we’ll at the top of the draft anyway !
Didi was an average hitter. Bogaerts at least has a better bat.
To sign Bogaerts, the Phils would have to give up $1MM of their international bonus pool, and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft.
—————————-
DD doing his thing. Phillies better win this year or next, because this is how he operates — Slash and Burn team building.
The cost use to be a first rounder which is more valuable than todays price. Also, philis have been lights out in the fa market while drafting is more average so doubt that even weighs into the factoring if they want X or not
Back then I don’t believe there was ‘international pool money’. So a 2nd round plus 5th round plus $1M of international signing money is bigger than the 29th overall pick in the draft. IMO.
Spending $100m on Castellanos was indeed a sort of ‘lights out.’
It looks bad now but I‘d expect Nicky to look a lot more like his pre-2022 self next year after a more normal offseason than last year’s.
Castellanos may be a miss. But Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto and Schwarber are pretty good signings I’d say.
DD has had two clubs in the World Series with one winner. I’d take him over 90% of the GMs that are out there.
Um, I think he took four teams (MIA, DET, BOS, PHI)…
How that Detroit team didn’t win it all still baffles me.
raltongo;
Two of them won the WS.
I mean, they have McGarry, Abel and Painter reaching the upper levels of the minors. They are in better shape than people think.
Well, Phillies have the money tree and DD knows him
Yeah, and Correa had a relationship with A.J. so he signed with Detroit.
I think Aaron Hicks can play SS. Much cheaper than any of the current FA SS.
Xander will not make the Phillies all that much better. His defense will make the team’s overall defense even worse. And his bat doesn’t offset his bad defense at a position where defense is essential. And it’s only going to get worse as his contract progresses.
His bat definitely offsets his defense. He’d have to be a literal statue to somehow offset his bat.
Ma4170;
Maybe if he were DH’ing or hidden in LF.
His bat will no more offset his D at SS than Tim Anderson’s does.
Samuel
You really think bogaerts offense doesn’t make up for his defensive warts? Unless you think his production will fall off drastically, then I don’t see it. At all.
Let’s say his defense costs 10 runs a year… his offense will provide much more than that additional production over an average SS.
Ma4170;
To me it’s not about silly long-term stats.
It’s about WINNING!
Errors – and misplays that aren’t counted as errors – turn games around. Force the managers to use different options – primarily tiring their bullpen out which hurts not just that game, but in subsequent games.
When you find a stat for that – please post a link. I can tell you this….MLB teams FO’s have been developing internal stats that show thinks like that. The same way for 50 years NFL teams have young coaches breaking down game film for 3-4 days and nights after games.
Agreed, but everything you’ve seen about bogaerts until now says he’s top tier offensively. Other than his HR drop off last year he’s prob the most consistent SS bat the past 5 years. And he’s won a WS. You might think he’ll fall off quickly or his bat won’t play outside of Fenway, but i think he’ll be fine for a few years. I’d much rather have him for 7-189 than Correa for 9-288 or whatever the projections were.
Er, guys? Comparing their age 25-29 seasons, Bogaerts is outhitting peak Derek Jeter while playing much better defense.
What’s that worth?
JackStrawb;
In those 5 years the Yankees with Derek Jeter finished 1st in their division each year, went to 3 WS’s and won 2 of them.
In the 5 years you’re referring to with Xander Bogaerts’ his Red Sox teams went to one WS and won it.
MLB is not rotisserie baseball. It’s played on a field. Teams have leaders. Players such as Jeter seldom come along. For people that didn’t see him play, it seems to be popular to minimize his accomplishments (“Jim Brown didn’t block”). That’s fine – Americans have been doing that with everything for some time now…..while they celebrate mediocrity (“You didn’t build that”).
I’m not trying to knock Bogaerts, simply saying that what Derek Jeter did for a team was exceptional.
Usually like your posts. A lot.
Bet Bogaerts doesn’t reach 3,465 hits.
Makes sense. I’m sure they’ll bid more than the Red Sox too.
Who wouldn’t be?
Go back,man, to Turner; put that signing in overdrive.
While this makes some sense, I’m always wary of this time of year when the person floating the rumor is someone like Jon Heyman. ““believed to have real interest in” with him can translate to “Scott Boras told me.”
It’s like that with most of the writers, most of the GMs, and most of the agents. For all we know, DD could’ve told Boras to to tell Heyman of their interest. All the while DD could have Turner’s agent on his other line.
Maybe Bloom drops a dime saying they are offering Eovaldi a multi-year deal to encourage another GM to jump ion.
Bloom is salivating over the extra $1 M of International signing money and draft picks..
If Story isn’t ready for SS–Kike, Arroyo, Jean Segura, Didi Gregorias or
Jose Iglesias may do.. OR just be more concerned about who will play 2 B..
Arroyo would be my 2 B of choice from the current roster.
While Bogaerts connection to DD might be important, Trea Turner’s friendship with. Royce might be a bigger deal. Trea ticks all the same boxes and football fans know that strong friendships can translate to quality on the field i.e. Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown.
Bogaerts is signing with Seattle. This thread is moot.
None of the top SS’s will sign with Seattle since the Mariners are obsessed with Crawford. There is always a price, but paying full market value for a SS and a premium to get him to move doesn’t seem likely.
This is actually my prediction too. They’d move Crawford to 2B to accommodate Bogaerts.
100 major league players hit more HRs than Bogaerts this year. 100.
It’s… it’s almost as if HRs aren’t the only aspect of baseball that matters.
And still had an OPS over 830, how about that? I personally think it’s encouraging a player can still produce high value without relying solely on HR. Not that these stats are scripture, but over last three years he’s still 3rd highest WAR and 4th highest WRC+ among all SS.
Ma4170;
Routine fly balls to LF bounce off the Green Monster and go for doubles….which stats like OPS love. Been going on since Fenway park was built.
Bogaerts hits poorly against west coast teams because most have large yards (including foul territory).
He would hit well in Citizens Bank Park which HOF 3B Mike Schmidt referred to as “Arena Baseball”. Not so much with the Mariners, Angels, or A’s.
I still remember crying at his retirement press conference in May of 1989….
They can, and will do better than Bogarerts. At this stage it’s just gamesmanship and public negotiation.
Not sure I’d want to trust the left side of the infield defense to Bohm and Bogaerts for years to come, Phils should just go all the way and sign Correa tbh.
Phils should pay up for Turner to play 2nd, let Stott come into his own at SS, he looks like a good one.
I think Turner is the player that the Phillies sign, he checks all the boxes!
If you are going to spend 25mil plus a year get TREA
Phillies won’t pursue Correa. I think it can become problematic in the clubhouse when you have a guy who wants the record highest annual salary when that said clubhouse already contains the guy who had one of the last highest average salaries. Correa and Harper would make an Odd Couple for sure, jockeying for Top Dog.
Wait until next year and the shift is banned. Schwarber will be even more valuable. Schwarber is a winner, plain and simple