The Padres have discussed the possibility of restructuring the contract of Nick Martinez, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. The right-hander has to decide whether to opt out of the final three years and $19.5MM on his deal by this evening, but Lin suggests it looks likely he’ll remain in San Diego either by opting in to his existing deal or reworking his contract.
According to Lin, one idea under consideration is to remove future opt-out possibilities from Martinez’s deal. The four-year guarantee he signed upon coming over from NPB last winter afforded him opt-out chances after each season, giving the former Ranger hurler plenty of long-term contractual leverage. If he’s to forfeit that right moving forward, the Padres would certainly have to increase the guaranteed money on his deal over the coming seasons.
San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged the 32-year-old would prefer to work as a starting pitcher. Martinez started 10 games this year but otherwise came out of the bullpen 37 times. He fared better in relief and Lin writes that some within the organization believe he’s better suited for such a role, but giving Martinez at least the opportunity to crack the rotation could aid San Diego’s efforts to keep him around for the next few seasons. The Friars have Joe Musgrove under contract for five years, but Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are headed into the final seasons of their respective deals. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are now free agents.
On the position player side, Preller provided reporters (including Lin and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN) with an update on Fernando Tatis Jr. Coming off a season lost to wrist/shoulder surgeries and a stunning performance-enhancing drug suspension, the two-time Silver Slugger winner is now something of a Wild Card. He’ll be eligible to return from his PED suspension on April 20 next year, and Preller noted he’s expected to resume baseball activities in January after rehabbing from his shoulder procedure. San Diego saw Ha-Seong Kim break out in his second big league season in Tatis’ stead at shortstop, and Preller acknowledged that Tatis could assume more of a multi-positional role upon returning.
He’ll certainly play every day, but it’s not clear he’ll immediately step back in as the shortstop. Lin reports the Friars are open to moving Tatis to second base on occasion, kicking Jake Cronenworth over to first while leaving Kim at shortstop, where he’s a plus defender. The Friars have also toyed with the possibility of deploying Tatis in the outfield, covering for some offensive struggles from center fielder Trent Grisham and/or the possible free agent departure of left fielder Jurickson Profar. Much depends on how the Padres build out their roster over the next few months, of course.
There’s no need for Tatis to see any action in right field, as the Friars have Juan Soto there after their massive deadline splash. He’ll be around for at least another two seasons, as he’s controllable via arbitration through 2024. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes the Friars are likely to try to discuss a longer-term deal with Soto this offseason, although they’ve yet to open those talks. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals that would’ve been the largest contract in MLB history. It’s clear the Padres would have to top that number to get the superstar outfielder’s consideration, but they at least seem likely to open informal discussions. For the moment, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $21.5MM in 2023 if he goes through the arbitration process.
Owner Peter Seidler has expressed a willingness to continue pushing the Friars’ payroll forward, although Acee writes in a separate piece they could be approaching their limit to some extent. Acee suggests they’re likely to open 2023 with a similar payroll as they had this season. San Diego exceeded the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year in 2022, finishing with a CBT figure around $233MM. That’s easily a franchise-high, and Roster Resource projects their CBT number around $216MM for next season. As Acee points out, that leaves them with some room for rotation and left field help, although it raises a question as to how aggressive Preller and his staff might be on the free agent market in particular.
dvmin98
Probably the best news from any of our possible free agents. He was a big part of our success. Glad to see we will likely retain him. Now go get Suarez and Drury back.
llokokokok
I can see us getting Drury but Suarez may have priced us out of a realistic contract. Remember we are still paying a ridiculous contract for pomeranz (at least aj said yesterday that he is healthier and should play this year).
Ivan the terrible
It left me scratching my head all season long as to why Martinez wasn’t used as a starter over Manea and Clevinger. I would of cut my losses with either or and released one of the two. I still feel like Martinez should of been used as game 4 starter in the NLCS. Clevinger is done in my opinion and Manea is inconsistent as a starter. I would definitely restructure Martinez contract if I were Preller.
Jung Like My Daddy
Morejon Knehr and Groome are in house options to fill the # 4 and # 5 spots.
They also probably look into 1 of Cueto, old friend Zach Davies, Zach Greinke as RH starters and 1 of Miley or Hill as LH starters. They also probably pursue Senga
Pen perspective think we see some reclamation projects.
Kimbrel, Chapman, old friend Brad Hand, Britton, Colome, Arodys Vizcaino, Nick Anderson as guys who’ve had past success coming off a down 2022.
Be nice to see them pursue Matt Moore as a more reliable LHP and Michael Fulmer
They probably replace Profar with Joey Gallo. Preller loves his ex rangers. I’d shift Tatis Jr to OF full time and Soto to DH/1B.
Against RH pitching id like to see
CF – Grisham
RF – Tatis Jr
LF – Gallo if hes the guy, id prefer Joc Pederson or Michael Conforto
1B – Rizzo or Abreu at 1B, but fall back option would be platoon with someone likeCorey Dickerson as a 1B/OF/DH option from left handed side
2B – Cronenworth
3B – Machado
SS – Kim
C – Nola
DH – Soto
no particular batting order
Against LH pitching id like to see
CF – Chad Pinder or Adam Duvall as a RH bat compliment to Grisham in CF
RF – Tatis Jr
LF – Soto
1B – Rizzo or Abreu, or someone like Donovan Solano to platoon with Dickerson
2B – Cronenworth
SS – Kim
3B – Manny Machado
C – Campusano
DH – Myers? as a 1B/DH/ corner OF option from RH side
Wagner>Cobb
Pretty solid. Personally, I’d move Soto to LF and Play Tatis in right.
They should try and get Senga for the rotation.
1. Darvish
2. Musgrove
3. Snell
4. Senga
5. Martinez
JudgementDay
Would like to sign Abreu, Rizzo, or Drury for 1st base
Even sign Myers if it’s about 7-9 million a year
Sign Martinez, Senga, or T. Walker/Bassitt
Move Tatis to LF
Some low to moderate value mid relief, bullpen help
Call it a day
Pads Fans
If the Padres are not going over again they pretty much have to stand pat and wait to see if they are in the hunt come July. From Seidler’s comments I don’t think that is going to happen. I also don’t think they are going to go big on anyone.
My preferences
Sign Drury. I think its going to cost upwards of 3/36 to get that done.
Restructure Martinez. I am thinking its going to take guaranteeing his entire deal and adding an option for a 4th year.
Sign Abreu. 2/28 or Mancini 3/24
Sign Senga. 5/37.5
Puts the Padres at about $240 million for CBT purposes.
1B – Drury (Can play 1B, 2B, 3B, LF)
2B – Cronenworth
SS – Kim
3B – Machado
LF – Azocar then Tatis
CF – Grisham
RF – Soto
C – Nola
DH – Abreu or Mancini (both can play 1B too)
Bench after 4/20 – Campusano, Azocar, Rosario, Dixon or Batten
SP – Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Martinez, Senga with Groome as the first depth piece
Bullpen – Hader, Pomeranz, Garcia, Wilson, Hill, Crismatt, Castillo, and Morejon as the swing man
JudgementDay
Heard they will go over to about 256 mil and that’s about 60-70 mil left to fill in holes
Deleted Userr
If they are going to go over at all they might as well go all the way to just under $40m over so that their 1st round pick isn’t lowered by 10 spots.
JudgementDay
Think signing Senga will cost the padres Suzuki money 5/75, if Senga signs it’ll be 5/80
Deleted Userr
please please please please PLEASE no Wil Myers or Zach Davies!
GarryHarris
Move Juan Soto to LF and Fernando Tatis to RF. Soto can’t play RF and the health of Tatis’ arm isn’t reliable for SS.
Oldman58
His arm isn’t reliable at SS but you want that same arm in right field? Let’s rethink that
damascusj
Why isn’t his arm reliable?
GarryHarris
It’s terrible inaccurate.
dvmin98
What’s wrong with Tatis’ right arm? He had surgery on his left wrist and shoulder.
Pads Fans
Tatis didn’t hurt his throwing arm. Both injuries were to his left side, shoulder and wrist.
30 Parks
I’m concerned Tatis’ struggles with ringworm may resurface. Poor guy.
rememberthecoop
I think Soto is somewhat overrated. Best player in the game? The next Ted Williams? Hardly. Look, offensively he has power but his main attribute is the ability to get on base via the free pass. That’s nice and all, as a .400 OBP is certainly nothing to sneeze at. Still, he’s not a great fielder and he doesn’t run fast, so while I’d be happy to have him, I wouldn’t spend 500M on a long-term deal for Soto.
Wagner>Cobb
The “prime Ted Williams” comparisons were laughable. He’s talented, sure, but let his career play out before you compare him to the last guy that hit .400. I know moderns don’t like batting average, but it’s still an extraordinarily unique feat.
I wouldn’t give him 500 million either. He has a lot to prove next year and possibly the year after. Nobody talks about it, but he flies open a lot on his swing. I’d be concerned how that sort of technical flaw will play out as he eventually ages and his hands get slower.
Pads Fans
Whoooosh!
He was never compared to Ted Williams for Ted’s entire career. Going into this season Soto was compared to Williams through age 22.
A closer comp was Mike Trout and Bryce Harper through age 22. Soto had a higher SLG%, so he was hitting the ball with more power than either of them. Trout had a 167 OPS+ and Harper a 144 compared to 160 for Soto.
Over the 2018-2021 time frame that those comparisons were made, only Trout was a better hitter than Soto. Not of those three. In MLB. Soto’s 160 OPS+ was 10 points better than the next guy with at least 1500 PA.
Expand that to include 2022 and of players with 2000 PA, only Trout and Judge have been better hitters. Soto’s SLG% is tied for 10th with JD Martinez.
Go to this page and scroll all the way to the bottom and notice the similarity scores through age 23 and through each of the other ages on the right. Pay attention to the asterisks. Those are the Hall of Fame players.
baseball-reference.com/players/s/sotoju01.shtml
Then remember that most players continue to improve until they are in their late 20s.
Wagner>Cobb
Buster Olney said trading for Soto was like trading for prime Ted Williams.
rememberthecoop
But look, much of the reason why he performed so well via OPS+ and other metrics is because they value OBP so much. And while I do, too, I just don’t think he’s going to age well. He may still be a very good player, and someone most any team might want. However, I’m just saying that he’s been somewhat overrated. Again, that’s just my take, as much of what I’d seen written about him was like he was the second coming or something.
Pads Fans
What part of his SLG% being better than Trout or Harper did you miss?
Pads Fans
No, he didn’t. He did say this.
twitter.com/buster_espn/status/1552408632716890119…
Pads Fans
He also said this. Or more to the point SlangSports said it.
twitter.com/buster_espn/status/1556279154345066496…
Pads Fans
He also retweeted a link to an article that said this:
“Players with 95+ HR and 350+ BB in their first 455 games are just Soto (98 HR | 359 BB) and Williams (96 HR | 367 BB).”
Pads Fans
“Last year, a 21-year-old Soto became the youngest player ever to win the National League batting title with a mark of .351, slightly besting Pete Reiser’s feat as a 22-year-old in 1941.”
Who was the youngest in the AL at age 22?
Wagner>Cobb
His batting title was over the course of 49 games. It’s an accomplishment, but its still only 49 games.
Wagner>Cobb
1942 Ted Williams was basically prime Ted Williams. But my point is you can’t compare Soto to 1942 Ted Williams until you see how Soto’s career turns out. Williams didn’t have a bad year until he was 40. Soto just had a bad year at 23 despite everyone saying he’ll be a future inner-circle HOF’er. Now, he may end up being that great, but who knows?
Wagner>Cobb
To claim one is trading for Ted Williams in 1942 when they trade for Juan Soto is to presume that Soto’s career will turn out comparable to Williams’ career. If not, why make the comparison? It’s Williams’ overall greatness that gives weight to the comparison which is what makes it an unfair comparison for Soto at this point.
JoeBrady
The next Ted Williams?
=========================
That’s impossible. When Strawberry came up, one of the writers said he was the next Ted.. So maybe Soto is the next Darryl?
aTouchOfSarcasm
Agree 100%. Here’s a brief line.
Player A, 162 game average: 33HR 98RBI .287/424/526 950 OPS
Player B 162 game average 28HR 90RBI .297/412/.513 .926OPS
One is a tick better, but the other was never called the next Ted WIlliams.
A is Soto, B is Joey Votto.
Don’t get me wrong Soto is a great, great player. Worth the biggest contract in baseball history? I just don’t see it.
Pads Fans
Votto didn’t play in the majors until the was 23 and his 1st full season was at 24. The age Soto will play at in 2023. NEXT season. Votto just finished his age 38 season and you are including his whole career? Seriously?
Way to compare Apples to Oranges. Great job.
Pads Fans
Two other points.
Votto has played his entire career in a bandbox. A hitters paradise.
Soto has played in pitcher friendly parks in DC and SD.
AND its not a tick better, its 12% better. That is huge.
CrikesAlready
I don’t trust that Tatis is free of ringworm. He’s back in the Dominican Republic probably being the same jackass he’s been his whole life.
People’s personalities don’t change much past 7 years old (minus drugs and brain injury, trauma), they are only subjected to consequences. Why the Padres paid him for anything last year (during his non-baseball injury) was a stupid move.
damascusj
He’s not in the Dominican, he’s in sam Diego and has been there since the op
CrikesAlready
SDUT reported him in the DR this morning.
“Tatis is in the Dominican Republic, in regular contact with Padres officials via phone and checking in regularly with the team’s physical therapists in that country.”
– Kevin Acee NOV. 10, 2022 10:14 AM PT
JoeBrady
People’s personalities don’t change much past 7 years old
=============================
I tell my wife that occasionally. I had to make certain lifestyle concessions in order to raise a family, own a house, etc. But I am still the same guy she met 100 years ago. So don’t be surprised when I revert back to my previous behavior, physical limitations notwithstanding.
bbatardo
Definitely want to see Big D**k Nick back. He wasn’t as good as a starter, but would make a good #5 if willing to go to the pen if starting doesn’t work during the year.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I will keep saying this over and over. The Padres should use Tatis as their DH for the first half of 2023. Let him focus on regaining his elite bat. Kim is a better shortstop defensively and keeping Tatis injury free after a long layoff is key for the first half of the season. Once the bat is back, they can decide where he fits best. If Tatis can avoid injuries and mental screwups, he could be one of the best hitters in MLB, even better than Soto and Machado.
Pads Fans
DH and OF if Grisham falters out the gate sounds good to me.
Simm
Padres payroll this year will push closer to 26pm then 230m. Acee is never to be listened to when it comes to the padres.
Better off believing boob.