The Giants have been conservative with their spending during the Farhan Zaidi era, which has led to inconsistent results. Their 107-win campaign in 2021 was excellent but they followed that up with an exact .500 season in 2022. All signs point to this being the offseason that the wallet opens, with many possible routes to take, one of which leads to Bay Area native Aaron Judge.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Anthony DeSclafani, SP: $24MM through 2024
- Joc Pederson, OF: $19.65MM through 2023
- Wilmer Flores, IF: $16.5MM through 2025, including $3.5MM player option for 2025 with $8.5 club option if he declines
- Brandon Crawford, SS: $16MM through 2023
- Alex Wood, SP: $12.5MM through 2023
- Tommy La Stella, IF: $11.5MM through 2023
- Alex Cobb, SP: $11MM through 2023, including $2MM buyout on $10MM club option for 2024
Total 2023 commitments: $89.15MM
Total future commitments: $111.15MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Scott Alexander (5.080): $1.1MM
- John Brebbia (5.078): $1.9MM
- Jakob Junis (5.002): $3.3MM
- Austin Slater (4.147): $2.7MM
- J.D. Davis (4.137): $3.8MM
- Mike Yastrzemski (3.128): $5.7MM
- Logan Webb (3.044): $4.8MM
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (3.035): $1.4MM
- Tyler Rogers (3.034): $1.8MM
- Thairo Estrada (2.169): $2.4MM
Free Agents
- Carlos Rodón, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Shelby Miller, Lewis Brinson, Dominic Leone, Zack Littell, Jharel Cotton, Willie Calhoun, Andrew Knapp, Jose Alvarez
It’s a time of transition in San Francisco, with the veterans of the last era making way for the fresh faces of the new one. On the heels of an unexpected renaissance in 2021, Buster Posey decided to retire on a high note. In 2022, they couldn’t keep the magic going, with injuries putting a damper on Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella, Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt. Those latter two names are now free agents and might not be back, while the former two are each entering the final years of their respective contracts.
How they proceed with this era will be fascinating to watch, with many possible paths ahead of them. Since Farhan Zaidi was named president of baseball operations four years ago, the club has generally avoided long contracts, attempting to build around their veteran core with modest signings, waiver claims and prospects. (It’s worth noting they did reportedly offer Bryce Harper $310MM over 12 years, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, but a deal didn’t come together.) As mentioned, the results have been mixed. They hovered around .500 in three of the four seasons since his hiring, with the 107 wins in 2021 as the huge exception.
The upside of that conservatism is the that club’s payroll is wide open. In the short term, Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to currently be around $132MM. That’s well shy of 2022’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, as well as their franchise high of $201MM from 2018. The long-term picture is even better, with modest amounts still owed to Anthony DeSclafani and Wilmer Flores in 2024 and nothing besides the Flores option for 2025 and beyond. That leaves essentially all avenues open to them this winter. “From a financial standpoint, there’s nobody that would be out of our capability,” Zaidi recently told reporters, including Pavlovic.
Since no one is off the table, many people have set their sights on the very top of the free agent market, which is Aaron Judge. Towering above everyone else in more ways than one, Judge has been speculated as a fit for the Giants due to his Bay Area roots. He was born in Sacramento and raised in Linden, which is about a two-hour drive from Oracle Park. The Yankees will likely be highly motivated to prevent the Giants from poaching him, given Judge’s tremendous abilities and star power. However, there’s really nothing to make the fit in San Francisco impossible at the moment. Though Judge will command a mammoth contract, with MLBTR predicting $332MM over eight years, the Giants are one of the teams that can afford it.
In terms of the on-field fit, the Giants could make it work with Judge or just about any free agent. In recent years, they have targeted players with defensive versatility, which should help them juggle the puzzle pieces around, regardless of who they eventually acquire. The current outfield mix consists of players like LaMonte Wade Jr. Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González and Austin Slater. There’s also Joc Pederson, who received and accepted the qualifying offer in the past week. However, he had poor defensive numbers in 2022 and could be slated for significant time as the designated hitter. Though those outfielders all have their merits, none of them would stand in the way of Judge. Wade has spent some time at first base in recent years and could theoretically do that more going forward to de-clutter the outfield, if necessary.
The infield is currently a hodgepodge of multi-positional players, outside of Crawford. There’s Flores, La Stella, Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis and David Villar, along with some depth options. Those players all have at least some ability at more than one position, giving the club plenty of flexibility in how they make their moves going forward. They have been rumored to be considering the top free agent shortstops, in addition to their interest in Judge. The fit might be awkward for one season, with Crawford being a fan favorite and face of the franchise. He has 10-and-5 rights and isn’t likely to end up traded. It’s possible the club could sign a shortstop to play second or third for one season, then have them slide over after Crawford’s contract expires. This would be somewhat akin to the Dodgers acquiring Trea Turner while they still had Corey Seager at short. Turner played second after the trade deadline in 2021 and then moved over to short for 2022 after Seager signed with the Rangers. Turner is now one of the “Big Four” free agent shortstops alongside Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. They will all likely be able to secure nine-figure contracts but, as mentioned, the Giants are well positioned to make such a move.
Behind the plate is another area where the club could consider making an investment. Joey Bart has long been considered one of the club’s most exciting prospects, but he’s yet to permanently cement himself at the big league level. He was blocked by Posey for a while but finally got some significant playing time in 2022. In 97 games, he hit .215/.296/.364 for a wRC+ of 90. That’s roughly league average offensive production for a catcher, though it came with a concerning 38.5% strikeout rate. On the other side of the ball, Bart got negative grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and the FanGraphs framing metric. He’s about to turn 26 and could still take steps forward but the club will likely want to have other options on hand. The only other backstop currently on the 40-man roster is Austin Wynns, who had a fine showing in a backup role in 2022. However, the Giants could find other options, with free agents like Omar Narváez, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges and Roberto Perez available in free agency. A bigger splash on someone like Willson Contreras is something they could afford if they aren’t really committed to giving Bart a chance, though they some more focused on other areas of the roster.
While Belt and Longoria have spent significant time with the Giants and are notable departures for nostalgia reasons, the club’s most significant free agent loss is Carlos Rodón. The lefty has long been known as a very talented pitcher, but one who struggled to stay healthy. He had a strong 2021 that erased many of those injury concerns, though not all. He pitched 132 2/3 innings for the White Sox with a 2.37 ERA but seemed to run out of gas down the stretch. The Sox were concerned enough not to give him a qualifying offer. The Giants pounced and gave Rodón a two-year, $44MM deal, though one that allowed him to opt out after the first year and return to free agency as long as he pitched 110 innings. He shot way past that, finishing the season at 178 frames and a 2.88 ERA, further distancing himself from those previous injury concerns. He made the easy decision to opt out and will now be looking for a huge payday, even after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Giants.
Zaidi has said that the club will try to retain Rodón, but they will certainly have competition. The Rangers are already known to be interested, for instance. Even without Rodón, the rotation isn’t in terrible shape. On paper right now, it would be Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jakob Junis. Webb and Cobb have each been good in each of the past two seasons. Wood’s 2021 ERA of 3.83 jumped to 5.10 in 2022, but with fairly similar rate stats and advanced metrics. DeSclafani is less certain at this point because his strong 2021 was followed by a frustrating 2022. He made just five starts before ankle surgery ended his season. Junis had some success in a swing role last year before getting bumped into the rotation, though his results declined after that. There’s some decent ingredients in there, though the group would certainly benefit from retaining Rodón and bumping Junis back into the bullpen. If they miss on Rodón, there are plenty of other starting pitchers available, with Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom at the top of the market, followed by guys like Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and many more.
In the bullpen, Camilo Doval seems to have stepped up and grabbed hold of the closer’s role. He tossed 67 2/3 innings in 2022, striking out 28% of batters faced and finishing with a 2.53 ERA. Those results came in high-leverage situations, with Doval racking up 27 saves. He’s yet to reach arbitration and can be retained cheaply for years to come. There are some more seasoned options behind him, like John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers. Like all clubs, the Giants are a candidate to grab a reliever or two. There are dozens of options, including Adam Ottavino, Carlos Estevez and Andrew Chafin, but perhaps the most fun reliever to consider is Taylor Rogers signing to join his twin brother Tyler.
In the end, there’s no shortage to what the Giants can do this winter. They have as much payroll flexibility as any contender and plenty of ways to use it. That could be a huge splash like Aaron Judge, one of the big shortstops, an ace for the rotation — or spreading the money around more evenly on a bunch of mid-market options. They could plausibly be connected to most of the free agents this offseason and will surely make significant moves of some kind. Just about everything is on the menu and fans are expecting a feast of giant proportions.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Giants-centric chat on 11-21-22. Click here to read the transcript.
The obligatory Judge-to-the-Giants reference reminds me of last year’s Kershaw-to-the-Rangers reference.
Far from! Judge SF!
and just like Kershaw, Judge will be a Dodger.
and like clockwork Judge as a dodger will degrade in quality year after year eventually not being close to the cost given.
Just like your basketball takes: this won’t ever happen.
Absolutely!
No way
Judge to the Giants makes sense. As much if not more so than any team. They need some of the star power that Judge brings. Pay the man Giants!
They have “Joc star”.
More like Joc Itch.
Joc “Baby Panda” is a far cry from star power. Nothing more than being an overpaid platoon player.
rather Giants get Trea over Judge
Yes, but Andrew Baggerly already reported that the SF Front Office already knows Turner is not interested in coming to the Giants.
1 more year of expiring contracts to trade at the dead line.
aren’t the giants glad to have held onto Bart?
Except the one they need to trade most – Crawford. Best case scenario is they sign Turner, Judge, and a SP while resisting the temptation of bringing Longoria and Belt back. Bart will have to turn around every aspect of his game, but the likelihood of that is pretty remote.
All Bart needs to do is stop striking out so much. He provides above-average defense and league-average offense with high upside, which is all you can really ask for from the catcher position.
After years Posey, Giants fans do expect more. Not Bart’s fault but that is his reality.
Bart was doing great after he was “sent down” mid season (actually he stayed in SF and worked with Will Clark) but then he got hit again in his face mask and I think was concussed.. Couldn’t hit much after that
Bart needs to hire Will Clark as a year round hitting instructor. And Kapler needs to make batting practice MANDATORY!
I actually hope the Giants re-sign 3B Evan Longoria to a smaller contract. I think he’d be great in limited use, primarily as a rh-h DH and PH… to complement Joc Pederson in the lh-h role. And if they had to put Longo in the field as a late-inning defensive replacement, he’d be more than adequate! Using him only part time might keep him off the DL, or at least not as often, and he could be a clubhouse leader and mentor for the Giants up-and-coming 3B prospect Casey Schmitt.
They have JD Davis at a much more reasonable cost to serve the same function Longoria would.
Bingo Rsox. All things being equal, Davis brings one thing to the table that Longoria just can’t these days – availability. I’ll take JD all day long.
He has been really good when healthy
Using Longo as a DH negates much of what value he brings. He’s an excellent defender. I’d be all for re-signing him if he could be depended on, but he can’t. For a team that needs to get younger, and less injured, Longo at 37 isn’t it.
Well as a 30-year fan of the Giants I can say from talking to many other fans that the Zaidi dumpster diving cheapness he has shown the last few years can’t happen again or a large percent of fans are going to not pay attention to this team. The consensus from fans is that they should have a top 5 or 6 payroll every year in line with their revenue. So, the payroll better break the 201 million spent in 2018. Anything under 215 to 220 million next year and future years is not going to work and going to lead to empty stadiums and dramatically less interest no matter if they are competitive or not. Most fans out here are not going to support a team in it to line their pockets with money. So yes, they don’t have much on the books next year and better get busy signing lots of expensive players.
Zaidi is a scammer and a fraud. We shouldnt let non-MLB people infiltrate the game like this. Big Zuck+Elon energy from Zaidi – all talk, no wins.
We shouldnt let non-MLB people infiltrate the game
================================
Is that a reference to him being Canadian? Muslim? A former Oakland A’s employee?
Muslim probably. Weird how people think the owner doesn’t dictate spending.
I find it incredible how many Red Sox fans call Bloom cheap, despite the fact that the owner creates the budget, and of course, not to mention the fact that we are over the payroll cap.
“…all talk, no wins”
LOL His team literally won more games than any other team last year.
107 wins in 2021?! what a scam artist!
I agree Giant fans are restless, but the team is not going to spend $215-220M, and shouldn’t. They need a lot of upgrades but it won’t all happen this off season. Remember Soto and Ohtani will be available next year.
Let’s be happy if they resign Rodon (or Senga), add Correa and Nimmo. You’ll have speed and OBP at the top of the order, and if they add Haniger (if his ankle is truly better), they’ll have some more sock.
@Pete’sView
Ohtani will be available next year. Soto will not be available until the year after that.
I stand corrected.
Yup, I think a lot of Giants fans don’t realize that this is not a particularly good team. That’s just the way it goes. Stalwarts like Belt, Posey, Crawford, all got old. And aside from Logan, and maybe Bart, they have no one to replace them.
Judge is a 30 yr old right handed power hitter with below avg defensive skills. Giants ballpark favors left handed power. SF should not sign Judge, will never get the value out of any contract he would sign.
They better hurry up and get their ish together. The Dodgers & Padres are not going anywhere, and the Dback seem to be up and coming. Mess around and they’ll be fighting the Rockies for last place in the division soon.
Farhan sure has his work cut out for him this off season.
not really, he has a lot of $$$ hope he spends it correctly.
No offense because I love the content, but if there’s a way to roll up these very lengthy Offseason Outlook posts, that would be great, as we are in the “boiling” part of hot stove season and quite frankly it’s annoying to have to scroll down so much to get to the next story.
Any trade or sign can break out at any second, these very long posts are wasting time to get through – gimmie the TRADES and SIGNS!
“It’s a time of transition in San Francisco, with the veterans of
the last era making way for the fresh faces of the new one.”
–
Fair enough.
But the fresh faces don’t seem to be like the gobs of quality youngsters that the Orioles and Guardians were playing in 2022….with more in the high minors. Mike Elias of the Orioles
was hired a year after Mr. Zaidi; while Chris Antonetti and his
staff started the Guardians rebuild-on-the-fly about the same
time.
If I’m Zaidi I’d call a meeting of the FO and say, “Study Cleveland’s minor league/draft model. We need to do what they’re doing yesterday…….and don’t forget their strength and conditioning program – they had the fewest IL days of any team last year.”
Why Study it — POACH ’em of those scouts and entice some of their high positions of talent evaluation to come over.
Datashark;
A lot of people have been poached from Cleveland FO. But that’s slowed down.
Ownership has a small market budget. However, they’re open about what they can afford, and most importantly – they never interfere with the decisions the FO makes in anything. While fans that don’t understand how baseball is administered would come onto sites like this and post with disgust about the teams small payroll, the FO was getting money to bring in pitching and hitting machines, doing research on how to make player better, using analytics / video and coming up with processes to work with the individual players via TQM to get all people in the organization on board and working together. They also developed advanced analytics to help them in drafting. That organization infrastructure was built by the people working there, and it stays there. Poaching a few people will not work. That would be as effective as building the core of a ML team from free agents. Sounds good. Doesn’t work. MLB is not rotisserie league.
I thought the Giants FO would be far along in their own processes. It appears not.
The Mets wanted to talk to GM Mike Chernoff. He thanked them and said he was happy with the Guardians. More and more of their FO people are doing the same thing – seeing how when people leave they don’t do as well and become unhappy. Some things money can’t buy.
P.S. The Orioles have set up their structure the same way with their people.
I don’t know if that’s necessarily strength and conditioning, but possible. I would guess it’s more due to the young roster and luck. Younger people recover quicker, are more agile, and do not have as many lingering issues. Some injuries like broken bones happen regardless of age and that’s why I’d say luck also played a part.
A big issue for SF is the lack of minor league prospects ready to step up.
Ramos is looking like a bust and the Giants didn’t protect their 2019 first round pick, Hunter Bishop, from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Yes, Harrison is coming but the team doesn’t want to rush him. Most of the top position prospects are still a year away; Vaun Brown might force the issue as his meteoric rise through the minors appears unstoppable, and he’s 24 years old.
Zaidi was brought in to copy what the Dodgers did: develop a deep farm system for sustained success. The jury is out on that and now the team has to spend big on free agents just to stay in the conversation with the Dodgers and Padres. If ever there was a time for the team to do a 1 year Rebuild/Punt 2023 might be it. The fans would revolt but the Giants could still use their 3 championships from not long ago as fan capitol and set their sites on 2024. It’s not going to happen but I’d be willing to bet Farhan and some of the ownership group would like to go that route.
Senga, Correa and Josh Bell would change the face of this team. No Judge, it’s almost a guarantee he breaks down in 2 years.
If they tried “punting” attendance would look like a Wednesday afternoon A’s game.
Remember when Bryan Reynolds was a Giant? It’d sure be nice to plug him into CF next season.
In that ballpark? No it wouldn’t…
I understand the “let’s bring back the 2021 team” into 2022 however I do think where they made a mis-step was not bringing in a RH bat to replace Posey’s production, obviously that wouldn’t be a catcher but a corner OF/1B/DH.
This free agent market couldn’t be better for the Giants. They need every day (not platoon) players to anchor their lineup. As much as a fit as Judge is, the #1 person I think they need to go after is Carlos Correa. I think he’s better/better fit than the other shortstops,
If the SF staff think they know how to fix Joey Gallo and/or Cody Bellinger both are great fits, athletic strong defenders with power.. I’m curious their thoughts on Josh Bell, Mitch Haniger. They need multiple impact bats
Given how SF has handled pitchers coming off injury or just those needing a reset should be on the phone with SF right now. Leading that list is Mike Clevinger, plausibly Noah Syndergaard, a reunion with Matthew Boyd? and/or if healthy can you sort out Chris Archer?
And FFS can someone tell Barry Bonds to give Joc Pederson the phone number of his personal trainer? Joc should be embarrassed that he’s morphed into John Kruk lite, he’s a way better athlete than that in what is his age 31 season.
Bonds’ personal trainers are probably (at least informally) barred from having anything to do with baseball ever again.
Bond’s had multiple trainers actually, then there was the high school acquaintance who was also a “trainer”. That individual received press and ultimately did jail time. I am not referring the latter and more to the point the issue is Joc’s poor conditioning, he’s missing out on a level of performance and the contact $ that comes with it beyond his reach.
I started out the offseason looking at the salary space and thinking off all the players that money could buy…Judge, Turner, Rodon, Nimmo…while the nagging feeling in my gut is warning of a half dozen more La Stellas
Two players I never want to see in a Giants uniform again: LaStella and Belt.
The Giants are in a weird place right now in terms of roster make up- a bunch of hme grown veterans on the last legs of their careers and a bunch of young players who may or may not pan out to be serviceable long term big leaguers and becoming super stars is a huge question mark- they’ve been excellent recently at short term free agent deals, but the big issue has been *short term* –
The only way I see Judge going to the Giants is if the Giants offer Judge the highest AAV in history over a very short period of time or the largest contract ever so that he’s just playing for money and absolutely nothing else, with a hope that the team puts together a playoff capable or world series calibre club with elbow grease and luck.
I just think that if the Judge offers from the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc. etc. are all somewhat comparable with only a difference of $1-5M a season or $20-40M total, he will not choose SF right now, because they’re in such a state of flux with their roster.
Like I said- Giants offer Judge like 6 years/$330M with an opt out after Year 3 or something? He might take that. He wouldn’t really be losing any money, all the money would be guaranteed if he wanted to opt into the back half of the deal and if he opted in it meant he didn’t believe he could beat that on the open market and he only cared about the money at that point.
I mean, even at that level, the Giants could comfortable field a $180-200M club, matching their current spending levels, plus Judge’s contract.
But I still think the Yankees blink and give Judge 8 years and close to his desired AAV. Like 6 years/$255M and 2 years/$55M combined for 8 years $310M. I think that might actually get it done. I’m sure Judge will want 8 years/$342M or something like that from the Yankees…
The issue is the same with so many free agents- nobody wants their income to go down, nobody wants to admit they will inevitably drop off in productivity and reliable sports related health as they age- everybody wants to believe if they are making a certain AAV, it’ll be an underpay at the beginning of the long term contract, a fair pay in the middle and fair pay minus the current inflation of similar newer deals in the last third or half of the deal- they all want to believe this every single time and nearly every single time that’s not really how it plays out and as much as I love Judge, I anticipate him being worth nearly every penny of a 2-3 year deal and then losing productivity to age related wear and tear plus the additional wear and tear of someone with his frame.
The question is are the Giants willing to give Judge an insane amount of money for twice the length of time he will be worth that money or is Judge so focused on Winning Now that he would hesitate to join a rebuilding Giants organization? It’s not like the Yankees have figured out how to win…. and Judge may be the exact kind of player who’s individual numbers are amazing and record breaking…but who is somehow bad for line up balance and hurts the productivity of an overall roster- hence why more balanced teams like the Braves, the Astros and the Dodgers win the world series without that one insanely productive and expensive player and teams like the Yankees have that player and can’t go all the way…
Hope they bring back Shelby Miller. He dominated when he got his chance
Hard to decide if Giants will pick up Flores option in 2025 for $8.50, they may decide to buy half a beer at the concession stand instead!
Much less the Gotham Club lol
Can’t win with just free agents, without impact youth. They should make short term moves and hope the farm turns around soon.
Bye La Stella! Worst signing of this regime, not their fault he got injured but it was questionable at best when we signed him. Not a bad guy or anything just never worked out here. He clogs the bases as a lead off guy and is basically useless elsewhere and doubled his k rate. DFA him eat money let a kid play!