The Dodgers won the most regular-season games in the franchise’s 133-year history, cruising to a 111-51 record. Unfortunately, that success made it all the more disappointing when the Dodgers didn’t even win a playoff round, falling to the Padres in four games in the NLDS. Los Angeles now faces the possible departure of several key members of the roster, yet also a potential opportunity to reload with more premium talent.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mookie Betts, OF: $320MM through 2032 ($99MM is deferred)
- Freddie Freeman, 1B: $135MM through 2027 ($50MM is deferred)
- Chris Taylor, IF/OF: $45MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout of club option for 2026)
- Max Muncy, IF: $13.5MM through 2023 ($10MM club option for 2024, no buyout)
- Blake Treinen, RP: $8MM through 2023 (conditional club option for 2024 based on Treinen’s health)
- Austin Barnes, C: $7MM through 2024 ($3.5MM club option for 2025)
- Daniel Hudson, RP: $6.5MM through 2023 ($6.5MM club option for 2024)
- Note: Trevor Bauer is suspended without pay for the 2023 season, though Bauer is appealing the league’s ruling
Option Decisions
- Justin Turner, 3B: $16MM club option for 2023 ($2MM buyout)
- Danny Duffy, SP: $7MM club option for 2023
- Hanser Alberto, IF: $2MM club option for 2023 ($250K buyout)
- Jimmy Nelson, RP: $1.1MM club option for 2023
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Cody Bellinger (5.160): $18.1MM
- Julio Urias (5.117): $13.7MM
- Walker Buehler (4.168): $8.1MM
- Caleb Ferguson (4.088): $1.1MM
- Yency Almonte (3.143): $1MM
- Will Smith (3.090): $5.2MM
- Dustin May (3.059): $1.4MM
- Trayce Thompson (3.010): $1.7MM
- Edwin Rios (3.003): $1.4MM
- Brusdar Graterol (2.167): $1.2MM
- Tony Gonsolin (2.152): $3.5MM
- Evan Phillips (2.136): $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Bellinger
Free Agents
- Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Tyler Anderson, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Heaney, Joey Gallo, Tommy Kahnle, Chris Martin, Kevin Pillar, Robbie Erlin, Beau Burrows
The price of being a perennial contender is that anything short of a World Series title feels like a letdown, though the Dodgers’ record has been so overwhelmingly good over the last decade that it’s hard to say that the franchise isn’t moving in the right direction. This is the argument president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made in his after-season press conference, and yet it is also an argument Friedman has had to make in seven of his eight seasons running the L.A. front office. Still, the 2020 World Series title is very recent evidence that Friedman’s approach can indeed get the Dodgers over the finish line, and the team will certainly go into 2023 as one of the favorites to capture another Commissioner’s Trophy.
Dave Roberts is coming back as manager, which isn’t surprising since the contract extension Roberts last spring hasn’t even officially begun. Friedman also implied that the entire coaching staff will return, unless any coaches are offered promotions with other teams. Adding to the “getting the band back together” feeling is the fact that the Dodgers already addressed some winter business by reaching extensions with Max Muncy, Daniel Hudson, Austin Barnes, and Blake Treinen during the season.
Of these new deals, Barnes is the only one who received a multi-year guarantee. The Muncy, Hudson, and Treinen extensions all essentially amounted to the Dodgers guaranteeing a pre-existing club option for 2023, while adding another club option for 2024. There was still some risk in these decisions, given that L.A. has now committed $14.5MM to two relievers who combined for 29 1/3 innings last season — Hudson was pitching very well before tearing his ACL in June, while Treinen barely pitched at all due to persistent shoulder injuries.
Muncy had an unusual season, and was undoubtedly impacted by a partial UCL tear in his left elbow suffered on the last day of the 2021 regular season. Muncy opted against surgery, and then struggled to a .161/.310/.303 slash line over his first 339 plate appearances before turning it around to hit .247/.358/.500 in his final 226 PA. His extension was announced a few weeks into that late-season hot streak, indicating that the Dodgers are confident that Muncy can get back to his old form when fully healthy.
Even with these four potential free agents locked up, Los Angeles still has a long list of names set to hit the open market, and even more notables that could also become free agents depending on club options or non-tenders. Muncy’s extension may be seen as a hedge against an infield overhaul, considering that Trea Turner will be one of the headliners of the 2022-23 free agent class, backup Hanser Alberto is probably unlikely to be retained, and the Dodgers face a $14MM decision on whether or not to exercise the club option of longtime staple Justin Turner. The third baseman turns 38 in November and is coming off an inconsistent 2022 season,
The first base and catcher positions are locked down by Freddie Freeman and Will Smith. Muncy can play second or third base, and Gavin Lux can continue at second base or slide over to shortstop if Turner departs. Edwin Rios has been plagued with injuries over the last two seasons, but he has shown enough flashes of hitting potential and the Dodgers will likely tender him a contract and hope he can contribute to the corner infield mix (though like Muncy and Freeman, Rios is also a left-handed hitter). Top prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut last season and also figures to be a factor in left field or third base, even if the Dodgers may not be sure about his eventual position in the majors. Super-utilityman Chris Taylor can fill in all over the infield, though Taylor was mostly deployed as an outfielder last season and is looking to bounce back after a disappointing season.
Many teams would be quite satisfied with a starting infield of Smith, Freeman, Muncy, Lux, and a Vargas/Rios platoon at third base, with Taylor as a multi-position backup and touted rookies Michael Busch (a top-100 prospect in his own right) and Jacob Amaya knocking on the door for their own Major League debuts. But…this is the Dodgers we’re talking about. They prize roster flexibility, and they have the financial resources and minor league depth to pursue just about every free agent or trade candidate on the market.
It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Dodgers exercise Justin Turner’s option, re-sign Trea Turner, and just run things back with the core infield of an 111-win team. If Trea Turner departed, Los Angeles could certainly turn to one of their other star shortstops in the free agent market, and there have been some rumblings that the Dodgers are looking at Carlos Correa as their top alternative at the shortstop position.
L.A. could also potentially upgrade the infield by adding to the outfield, such as a scenario where Mookie Betts is suddenly a big part of the second base mix when Aaron Judge is signed to play right field. The Dodgers (as is their nature with every top free agent) have at least some interest in Judge, and while both Judge or Betts could be in the same outfield if one of them occasionally plays center field, returning Betts to his old second base position would certainly bolster the infield in the event of Trea Turner’s possible departure.
Because this is the Dodgers, a scenario can’t be ruled out where both Judge and Trea Turner are signed, with Los Angeles flexing its payroll muscles once again. That said, a case could be made that the Dodgers might see this winter as a chance to reset their luxury tax penalties. A lot of money is coming off the books in the form of the in-house free agents, leaving around $165.4MM committed to the 2023 roster in dollars, and a projected Competitive Balance Tax bill of just under $184MM.
Obviously, the Dodgers don’t have any qualms about paying CBT penalties in general, as they’ve soared over the tax line in each of the last two seasons. Three consecutive years of tax overages increases the penalties, however, both in terms of actual money paid on the tax bill, and (most importantly for the Dodgers) continued impact on the compensation both received and handed out regarding qualifying-offer free agents. For instance, Trea Turner will surely be issued a QO and reject it to test the market, and if signs elsewhere, Los Angeles will receive only a pick after the fourth round of the draft as compensation. Likewise, if the Dodgers signed Judge or another player who turned down a QO, the Dodgers would have to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft, as well as $1MM in international bonus pool funds.
All of these penalties would disappear next winter if the Dodgers got under the $233MM luxury tax threshold in 2023, and the roughly $49MM of current tax wiggle room would allow for L.A. to still make some necessary roster additions. The Dodgers can also carve out more room by trades or non-tenders, and Cody Bellinger’s projected $18.1MM salary stands out in this regard.
Since winning the NL MVP Award in 2019, Bellinger has hit only .203/.272/.376 with 41 homers over 1143 plate appearances. His offense particularly cratered following shoulder surgery during the 2020-21 offseason, and other injuries have also contributed to Bellinger’s sharp decline at the plate. Though he is still an excellent defensive center fielder and a strong baserunner, that’s a skillset that the Dodgers can replace for a lot less than $18.1MM. (Speculatively, Friedman might look to an old friend from his days in Tampa Bay now that former Gold Glover Kevin Kiermaier is entering free agency.)
There is a chance Bellinger isn’t tendered a contract and then re-signed to a lower salary, but of course he could also pursue a change of scenery with another team looking to buy low on a former MVP. Friedman is likely to explore trade possibilities for Bellinger before the non-tender deadline, but apart from a scenario where Bellinger is swapped for another team’s undesirable contract, interested clubs might see if they can wait out the Dodgers and then pounce on Bellinger if he is indeed non-tendered.
Despite Bellinger’s struggles, his departure would leave a hole in the Los Angeles outfield. Betts remains the cornerstone piece, and journeyman Trayce Thompson unexpectedly broke out in a huge way after being acquired in an under-the-radar pickup from the Tigers in June. Thompson played so well that he certainly has earned a place on the 2023 team, but without much of a track record of consistent MLB success, the Dodgers might still consider him more of a part-timer than as a sure thing for everyday action. If nothing else, Thompson might at least take over Bellinger’s role as a defensive standout, with upside at the plate.
As noted, Taylor is looking to rebound from a disappointing season that was plagued by injuries. Joey Gallo didn’t hit well after joining the Dodgers and probably won’t be re-signed. Kevin Pillar missed almost the entire season due to a fractured shoulder but might be a better bet to return as a depth option, since he’d only require a minor league contract. Lux, Vargas, and rookie James Outman are other in-house names for at least occasional outfield duty, plus Busch and another top prospect in Andy Pages should get involved in the outfield mix.
Even with all these names available, it seems as if there’s enough instability here that it seems likelier that the Dodgers make a notable outside acquisition to address the outfield rather than the infield, as the infield can be more easily addressed just by “only” exercising Justin Turner’s option. Whether that outside acquisition is a blockbuster like a Judge signing or a major trade, or maybe just more lower-tier moves to add another regular to the lineup, expect Los Angeles to check into all possibilities.
The same can be said about the starting rotation, as again, the Dodgers have some well-regarded prospects in Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot who made their Major League debuts in 2022. Just slotting Grove and Pepiot behind Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin doesn’t leave much depth, however, and L.A. will certainly want more veteran experience in the starting five.
Clayton Kershaw rejoined the Dodgers on a one-year, $17MM free agent contract last season, signing the day after the lockout ended. Kershaw said he took the time provided by the lockout to both heal up some injuries and consider his future, and the result was an excellent (if injury-shortened) 2022 campaign. Even as Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and health questions may limit him to around the 124 innings he has averaged over the last two seasons, Kershaw has still looked like one of the league’s best pitchers when he’s on the mound. Barring a change of heart, Kershaw looks like a good bet to return to action in 2023, and will almost certainly do so either with the Dodgers or perhaps his hometown Rangers (who have big need in the rotation and a lot of money to offer).
Re-signing Kershaw would check off one major box for the Dodgers’ offseason, but they also have to address the potential losses of Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. Two lower-cost free agent signings from the 2021-22 offseason, Anderson pitched so well that he made the All-Star team and made himself a borderline qualifying-offer candidate, while Heaney missed time with shoulder problems but still contributed a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 innings.
Heaney’s injuries might increase chances of a return to Los Angeles, as he might not require a multi-year contract, and the Dodgers could use Pepiot and Grove as backup plans if Heaney has to miss more time. One would imagine L.A. would also want to retain Anderson given how he broke out in Dodger Blue, but the Dodgers might also prefer to look for “the next” Tyler Anderson, i.e. another relatively inexpensive veteran who might blossom under the watch of pitching coach Mark Prior.
Between finding these hidden gems and their ability to draft and develop homegrown pitching talent, the Dodgers have been able to field a consistently strong rotation despite numerous injuries (such as the Tommy John surgery that will likely keep Walker Buehler sidelined until 2024) and off-the-field issues like Trevor Bauer’s suspension. That said, Los Angeles always seems to be an arm or two short heading into the playoffs, as injuries have often forced the Dodgers to reshuffle both their rotation and bullpen, sometimes with disastrous consequences.
As such, it is certainly possible that the Dodgers could bolster this group with a pitcher who provides more durability than Kershaw or Heaney, and has more of an established track record than the rookies. The free agent market offers several major names, and while there aren’t a ton of clubs with enough quality pitching to offer in trades, the Marlins do fit that description, and L.A. had some interest in right-hander Pablo Lopez at the deadline. The Dodgers have the prospect depth to at least start a conversation about any pitcher in trade talks, though some possibilities are more realistic than others — for instance, even though the Angels’ possible sale has cast a lot of uncertainty over the franchise, it is hard to imagine the Angels dealing Shohei Ohtani to their local rivals.
Turning to the bullpen, the Dodgers figure to have some interest in re-signing Tommy Kahnle or deadline pickup Chris Martin, even though the current relief corps is pretty deep. The biggest question is at the back of the bullpen, as it doesn’t look like saves leader Craig Kimbrel is in the team’s plans. Kimbrel was removed from the closer’s job and wasn’t even included on the Dodgers’ NLDS roster following a season that saw him post a 3.75 ERA over 60 innings, with a lot of walks and hard contact allowed, plus a drop in his usually-elite strikeout rate.
If Los Angeles doesn’t adopt a closer committee or turn to one of its in-house options as a top choice for the ninth inning, Edwin Diaz is the top closer available in free agency if the Dodgers wanted to splurge. Such names as David Robertson or Taylor Rogers might hold some interest for the L.A. front office, and while a reunion with Kenley Jansen is possible, it might be a little unusual to see Jansen return to the Dodgers a year after they were comfortable in letting him depart to join the Braves.
Then again, pretty much anything is on the table for a creative front office that has money to spend and prospects to trade, so another active offseason awaits for the Dodgers. Any number of headline-grabbing moves are possible, as well as less-heralded transactions (like obtaining Thompson or Yency Almonte) that end up paying big dividends during the season.
111-51 record
The only record that counts: 1-3 in the postseason.
Losing 1 critical week of ball sucks but it does not erase the enjoyment of 6 months of success. At least not for most fans.
Except for 2020, right!? Because apparently it’s all about the regular season that year!
That’s not true at all. Time to come out of fantasy world. Baseball is a business and the Dodgers draw over 48k a game and have huge tv contracts.
I think Dodgers should make an eight year 190-200 million extension offer to Julio Urias.
I suppose. They are probably just gonna wait another year then do it.
He is repped by Boras, if they do not sign this summer. he’ll test free agent waters.
Then I am guessing summer it is. Could not see why in a million years that they wouldn’t want to keep him.
Notwithstanding Boras, I think it is mutual. If Urias goes elsewhere, they would let him pitch 7 innings and he could get the Cy Young hardware, but common, life is good for him and it is a perfect match him and Dodgers. He is 26 and life altering generational money is coming despite his one mistake on the domestic front.
Covered the bases on that one Manny. Nice.
I think that would be turned down
8 years is absurd for a pitcher. Injuries can happen at any time.
What about a Winker for Bellinger swap. Change of scenery for both, won’t cost either team anything else.
Doesn’t work from Seattle’s side. They already have a CF, obviously, and CF defense is the primary thing left in Bellinger’s tool box. I bet they can do better trading Winker anyway. It’s just one bad year in his case.
Dodgers will release Belli. I expect Marlins to offer one year at ten to twelve million. Ms could top that, but why? They have better CF options already.
He’s also solid at 1st base.
Good point. But I am not sure he passes Garrett Cooper in depth chart whereas in CF his excellent defense partly makes up for his low only base percentage two or three true options hitting.
No one is paying bellinger 18 m. No chance of trade.
Hanser is “unlikely to be retained?” I don’t think so. He stays. Why else would they have such a sweet little option on him? Someone goes down and he plays everyday. Long season. We need guys like him.
Small sample size but Alberto did not produce in 2022. OPS of 0.623, OPS+ of 70. Doesn’t get on base enough or slug enough. Small contract but optimally you’d rather have a guy that can fill in with less of a production fall off.
I think he has more than what his #’s might reflect. Dodgers might agree. Small sample size as you said. Tiny risk high reward potential with him. He will get a shot starting SOMEHWERE if he is not kept. Got a feeling.
Hanser has a great personality and is a great clubhouse presence, but his actual skills are AAA. Best to sign him for a minor league deal with invite to Spring Training.
In this case it’s less about the money but rather tying up a roster spot. You’d think that the Dodgers could get a more productive bench player. OPS+ of 70 is pretty terrible. It is normalized for ballparks, but it basically says that Hanser was 30% below the league average normalized OPS.
Haha Fine. Let him kill it in spring training and make the 25 or 26 man that way. I think he is solid. If the Dodgers pick up his option then they gotta believe in him too. Halos will gladly take him..
I still hope he gets a shot. He will catch on somewhere either way. He is a great guy and just hope he does well.
There are like 7 dudes in AAA better than Hanser. Fun guy to have around but he is most likely on his way out.
Minor league contract, invite to Spring Training, competes with Rios and Busch for roster spot. Good chance Rios and Vargas make roster, Busch starts in AAA and Hanser is kept until Busch is ready.
Why on earth would the Dodgers use a 40 man spot and pay 2 million to someone who put up an OPS+ of 70
It obviously isn’t a money issue. The guy plays multiple spots. I think he can hit better than he did obviously. Positive influence with the team. If they DO bring him back don’t be stymied.
Having Hanser occupy a 40 man roster spot in the offseason would be insane. That option is obviously going to be declined. He wasn’t on the playoff roster
Anything is possible, especially with a bigger sample size. But we know that his walk rate will unlikely improve meaningfully. He’s also not a power guy. Sure, his BABIP could improve some but if we already know that he doesn’t walk or mash much, what’s the real upside here? Not much. The versatility on defense and weak side of a potential platoon against LHP is not very meaningful. You already have some weakness in Barnes off the bench, and yikes the nose-dive of Taylor. Can’t afford to add another weak bat in Alberto. Too many weak bats off the bench.
P.S. I do not know what OPS “plus” is. I don’t follow advanced metrics. We might even have a different definition of “advanced.”
I don’t know what any of those metrics mean. All I need to know is ba, hits, hr, rbi, wins-losses, ERA, strikeouts, and walks. everything else is just white noise.
OPS+ is OPS park-adjusted and normalized (100 being the mean). It’s one of those secret sauce stats. Nobody quite knows what goes into except the chef. Real tasty though!
I think Arenado is proving the OPS+ stat is not valid. The stat said he was over rated in colorist and world busters in St. Louis.
Not sure if I’m following your Arenado argument. Doesn’t say anything about OPS+.
He just had an unbelievable 2022 season. He had great numbers in Colorado with average OPS of 0.890 but that “only” equated to an average OPS+ of 121 in Colorado.
In STL, he actually posted a much lower OPS of 0.807 in 2021 which was equivalent to an OPS+ of 119. In 2022, he went off for an OPS of 0.891 and OPS+ of 154.
Compare that 154 to his average in Colorado of 121 even though similar OPS. Two large factors ballpark factor and lower average OPS in 2021/2022. Juiced ball era is gone. But we’ll see where his OPS ends up in 2023, closer to 2021 or 2022 levels.
I’m sure Los Karens will reload and be another strong force of cry babies again next season.
Definition of “rent free”
“FrankieG the 13th”
Huh???
Rocker49, We are still lost on the whole “Karen” thing…
“We are still lost” lol you are definitely the first person to not understand their nickname. All good, just refers to their constant crying about other teams. It’s never their fault when they lose, always crying and blaming things on others. Very fitting name until they grow up as a fanbase/team.
You must have been raised to hate the Dodgers. That team has become unrecognizable from the team they were before the new ownership group took over. Don’t get the “cry baby” thing either. As far as the fans, every fan base has their share of idiots. Practically every coach I ever had was a Dodger fan. I am from So Cal. Your views on the Dodgers and their fans are greatly ill conceived and misplaced.
as far as i know, the Dodgers only cry about one other team, the Astros.
And they should…. the Astros can’t stop cheating, ie, Maldonado using an illegal bat. They are not doing well away from home, coincidentally…….
Gooooooo Phillies!
Tell em Clip! And Yes, Philly taking it in 5 woooOOoo!!!!
And that is what fans like to do. I like still calling the Astros the cheaters. I know the Dodgers had lights out Gagne who was as big a cheater as anyone. So what, Dodgers fans are the same as most except some did need to leave in the 7th or 8th to beat the traffic, at least pre-pandemic.
Several Dodger players were using Pujols bats before also. Please do some reading…
no-hitter to tie the series 2-2. Astros in six.
Those bad boys were good last night!
Her jealousy is showing. She gets a little testy when there’s an article about the Dodgers.
“She” and “her,” like “Karen,” should not be used as insults. It implies that women are inferior. Just keeping it real.
Utah
Agree!
Most of the actresses I date don’t really like baseball but they wear a Yankee hat while they’re in LA and a Dodger one when they travel to NY just to seem edgy.
Is this all because they didn’t let you join the Lampoon?
They threatened castration Donny! Are we going to split hairs here?
Jimmy, you should hang out with Slider with queso.
Manny, they are 1st cousins at the least…
Mind putting an edit and adding next years guaranteed payroll and luxury #’s like all the other outlooks?
When mentioning up and coming Dodger pitching prospects you left out Gavin Stone, who went through 3 levels this year, ending up in OKC.
Combined numbers:
1.48 ERA
1.12 WHIP
12.4 k/9
Guess the writers didn’t know they were supposed to write an exhaustive analysis on the Dodgers future rotation.
Regardless of the Dodgers’ financial commitment to next year, it *has* to be considered worth it. The luxury tax they will pay is pocket change when compared to the advantage they have in keeping (or adding to) the team/players they have, imho.
“Let T. Turner sign in Montreal, get Pujols to split time in CF w/ Rick Pitino, and bring in Scott Boras as the new First Base Coach — plzzzz get it done Friedman!”
-George Costanza
Bet they surprise everyone by deciding not to sign T Turner OR any of the other SS. Trade for someone like Amed Rosario instead, leave Lux at 2B, keep J Turner for his last year and use Muncy mostly as a DH and general fill in. Dump Bellinger like a hot sack of potatoes, and replace him cheaper. That would leave them something like $40m under the lux tax. Go right up to it but not over by signing pitchers and an outfielder, call it a day. Bet they go hard for deGrom. Judge stuff is probably just made up by his agent.
I’m all in favor of a more economical option at SS rather than pursuing an expensive free agent. Lux can be that player, but I still have my doubts with both his bat and glove. He needs to take a big step with both in 2023.
Not sure if the Dodgers will keep J Turner. If it was strictly a baseball decision I’d think you part ways with him given lower expected production at the plate, declining glove/range and injury risk. We’ll see.
I’m thinking more and more that Bellinger could be a non-tender. At this point, a meaningful bounce back is highly unlikely and you can’t afford to tie up a roster spot or money-wise to be paying him anywhere close to $18mm. Problem is that the Dodgers don’t currently have anyone that can play CF as well as Bellinger, except for perhaps Betts. So, you’d most likely have to acquire another CF.
We’ll see who they pursue in the free agency market. You’d think that they’ll make a big splash for at least one superstar player, pitcher or hitter. But as you said, I can also see them trading for a more economical player. I’ve said before that they should sign Joc at LF on the strong-side of a platoon maybe with Trayce Thompson, which would be a rather minor acquisition.
Hope they can resign Anderson on a shorter-term deal, and or make him a QO and he accepts. Maybe there is another turn-around pitcher they can acquire for cheap. What we learned this season was that the Dodgers didn’t have enough pitching depth given the abnormally high number of injuries.
you just said what was written. except the lame part about joc. I’ve said before?
who hasn’t.
No dpsht. If you could actually read you would know that the my post is not the same but you have reading comprehension issues.
And yeah, notice how most of what I said came to fruition.
Post something intelligent dpsht instead of trying to criticize posts. It’s fine to disagree and make your argument but don’t be a dpsht.
He was dealt to CWS for Kimbrel during the offseason. Neither team won the trade because both players had largely forgettable years. Both are toast at this point.
I think you’re getting Pederson mixed up with Pollock. Pederson had a great season, 0.874 OPS and 144 OPS+, 0.894 OPS against RHP in 2022 and career 0.840 OPS against RHP. And he only made $6mm in 2022. If I’m the Dodgers I’d sign him to a short-term contract.
JT and Belli are definitely gone! CK could be as well plus a lot of lower end contracts coming off the books and cesspool Bauer suspended so Dodgers have plenty of money to make moves! My gut tells me Trea going elsewhere so there’s more payroll flexibility there! Look for Dodgers to make some bold moves!
Kershaw, Trea Turner, Anderson and Heaney all will be wearing Dodger blue, could buy out J. Turner and resign him for less but might as well just pick up his option, his power numbers were off but .278/.350 is pretty solid.
I’d give Tommy Kahnle another deal too. He should be healthy heading into the season.
Dodgers stacked and should once again be the preseason favorite to win the WS. Only question mark is CF.
Don’t follow the Dodgers closely, but from a distance……
Andrew Friedman is not going to let the team get old. Not his style. Has a great farm system. He promotes young blood constantly to the ML team, and understands the need for all 26 rostered players on any given day to be ready to play and possibly be a major factor in that days game.
Consequently, I believe all the takes about this veteran and that veteran miss the point. Some veterans will go. Some young veteran players (such as Lux) may be asked to take on more responsibility. And some youngsters will be given the opportunity – both on opening day and as the season progresses.
I believe the SS thing is overblown. Friedman and his FO have a strategy, we’ll find out what is is over the next 1-3 months.
With all the success they have had, they still only have one World Series title. Dave Roberts will cost them in October as long as he is around. Beats me why they extended him. Didn’t they know he would screw up before it even started?
He stays around because he implements the Friedman game plan. Beats me how some fans don’t get this.
They’ve only won ONE full-season WS since the 60s. Pretty hilarious when you consider the hype. A truly pathetic franchise.
Says someone who must be fond of the LOLmets.
James Outman in center, Miguel Vargas at 3rd, pitchers include Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, Dodgers have the highest payroll and best farm system, they’ll win 120 games in the regular season
Dodgers have quite a few promising players in the minors but I think a bit too early to expect a meaningful contribution in 2023. Outman was great in a VERY SMALL sample size and I’m not sure if he is a real CF. At this point the minor league pitchers are only expected to provide depth for injuries in my opinion until they obtain better command, but you have to like the promise of Miller and Pepiot, and perhaps Gavin Stone. The latter moved up quickly in 2022, but some forget that he started the year at A+. Rather have him ease into MLB and not rushed.
I’d also rather have Vargas and Outman start off at AAA and see how they progress. Vargas needs to find a position defensively but seems like the glove is not his strength. Hopefully he can develop into a plus bat off the bench and eventually a starter somewhere. At best I think you’re looking for a real call up (non-injury related) in the second half of 2023, and more likely 2024 contributors.
I’ll take the under.
History tells us Dodgers will probably “only” win 99 to 106 games next year.
Vargas starts in show on Opening Day 2023. Miller, Pepiot, Grove, Busch, Outman start in minors unless a pitching prospect joins the bullpen or is traded for a veteran.
A couple of those names will likely appear on the 26-man, but I’m not going to try to guess which ones, since it will depend on other moves the FO makes. I have a strong feeling they will try to get the payroll under the CBT for a reset and they also won’t sign free agents that come with big draft pick penalties. So I believe your range of predicted wins is pretty reasonable.
Resign Kershaw at 22 million with a PO for a second year at 22 million. QO offered and accepted to Anderson. Release Belli altogether and release and re-sign sign JT for $12 million. To stay under luxury, this leaves about 20 million for a closer and CF. Probably requires trading a prospect or two for the number five Not easy to do.
If Kershaw wanted another multi-year contract he’d have one already. He’ll go year to year until he’s ready to hang it up, based on his own stated intention to pitch for only as long as he can contribute. This site seems to believe Anderson isn’t a QO candidate, but where are they going to find his kind of production for under $20M on a one-year contract? So I think they should and will offer him one. The question is whether he accepts it or goes for a multi-year guarantee. I also have a feeling they won’t shop for a conventional closer and go with the cheaper option of closing by committee.
16 million versus 2 million? It’s a no-brainer to buyout Justin Turner’s contract. If they really want him back, they can then negotiate a number in between. But from an economic standpoint, I don’t see how they bring Turner back at that price tag.
JT was top ten in ave.
Batting average. You living in the 80s. His run production has been on a free fall for a while. And we won’t even talk about the defense and the injuries. That’s called aging. Can’t afford to pay an aging DH that much and frankly you can do better than that. Sad that they let JT go but that was the right move from a baseball decision.
The Dodgers could sign Judge, bring back Tre Turner, and while they are at it sign deGrom for a couple hundred million and go 150-10 and none of it will matter when Roberts decision making costs them critical playoff games
150-10 Won’t happen
Jacob gets 200 million Won’t happen
Pitching decisions made upstairs
People stop whining Won’t happen
I would only sign Degrom for a one year high salary. Any other length is putting too much at risk with health issues.
Jacob will get three or four years but not from Dodgers or Giants. What teams might offer him four years and 120 million? The Mets maybe? I hope not the Cubs!
It’s been amusing to see the same Dodger lifecycle every year:
Sign big free agent
Preseason hype off the charts
Romp through a weak schedule
Choke in the playoffs
Rinse, repeat. Imagine being a fan of this team…
The playoffs comment is partly fair. The weak schedule is not. The Nl West is clearly stronger than the two Central Divisions and the AL West. Until this year, NL West has been better than NL East for a couple years. NL East is better top to bottom due to Orioles recent gains, but Dodgers and Padres look closer than Yankees and Blue Jays, but by only a hair.
Neon copper? Bitchn! I love this team! You might go and cook yourself some
tatter tots.
Big changes coming! This team will look significantly different next season! JT, Belli and CT3 need to be gone! Resign Trea or one of the other big name shortstops out there, go after Diaz( best Closer in baseball) Rotation needs another big name starter,CK a year older, Gonsolin IMO is still a big question mark despite the W/L record! Heaney and Anderson FAs, I think Anderson gets resigned. Pepiot and Miller will get a long look in Spring Training!
if you take Diaz out of NY, then who will Timmy Trumpet play for?
Taylor is signed for three more years. Just figured I’d pass along that factoid. Pepiot has already gotten a pretty long long in the majors. He isn’t looking very ready.
Yeah, Taylor will be back and with some rest he should be better though maybe not a lot better. He is a utility player not an everyday middle infielder or corner outfielder. Gonsolin was not just a won loss record his era and whip were good too. He will have major regression to mean but every reason to think that he is a solid number two starter that any team would want.
Gonsolin is a major Red Flag, he totally ran out of gas after the Allstar break! He didn’t even come close to looking like the first half pitcher he was! Don’t think he gets traded but worrisome nonetheless! Staying healthy has also been an issue!
Taylor is an everyday player, just not at the same position every day. He’s always been a streaky hitter so I don’t put a lot of stock in his problems last year. My concern with Gonsolin is if he can make it through a season. Either way it’s unlikely his numbers will be as spectacular as they were last season. RHPs in general are going to take a step back next year.
Taylor can still be traded…what a novel idea!
Signed for 4 years plus and traded after one?
Ha. Right.
Pepiot had 9 games and 36 innings. Wouldn’t call that a real long look.
His command is too shaky to be counted on as a sure fire SP. he may eventually wind up in a bullpen
It wasn’t exactly a cup of coffee and and long enough to evaluate his issues. It was enough to send him back down to work on command and to not be penciled into the rotation next year.
CT3 may not need to be gone but he needs to play less. He’s best coming off the bench not starting and knew the minute that they signed him that this was going to be a bad contract. I was all in favor of letting him get his money elsewhere. I’d rather have the Dodgers trade a few prospects and sign a better economical SS, or cross their fingers and move Lux to SS, and upgrade the roster elsewhere. These FA shortstops will likely be very expensive and probably not worth the contract. I’m perfectly fine with resigning CK. Gonsolin put up great numbers in the season but there is still something about him that I don’t trust. His splitter still floats in the zone and while you can get away with that against weaker competition in the regular season that’s not going to fly in the playoffs. Wouldn’t be surprised if they obtain another frontline starter, especially if Anderson doesn’t sign.
2nd and 3rd wildcards should not exist, otherwise Manfred should just get rid of 162 game seasons and make it 120, & let 50% of teams into the post season, more money for MLB and TV, and keeping fans interested. It’s already at 40% of teams, because he & the owners created extra wildcards which has cheapened baseball totally, so stop wasting people’s time and the hardness of 162 games and make it soft to get entry to the post season play-offs like Tampa Bay and Phillies and other teams that have no business being there.
There was nothing wrong with one wildcard from AL and one from NL. Instead, Manfred wants to give teams that finished in some cases 14 or 20 games behind in 2022 into the post. Of course, that is not always going to be the finishing positions because each year is different, but nothing was broke in the first place, and teams get into the post season under these new soft ‘rules’.
Fred? You said a mouth full of sence. Go back to 154 season. Take
away one or two teams from each league.
Dodgers trade Miller & Stone & Vargas for:
Corbin Burnes
Then extend Burnes, getting a hometown discount since Burnes is from the area and grew-up a Dodgers fan.
Dodgers need to win a WS and acquiring a top 3 starter throughout his prime years seems like a good move to me.
Miller, Stone, Pepiot and Busch, for Burnes and Renfroe. Vargas plays for Dodgers on Opening Day.
Dodgers extend Burnes and keep Renfroe for the one year only.
Ok everyone, specially Dodgers fans, what about this trade:
Pablo López + Garrett Cooper (BTV = 41.80) for
Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Edwin Rios and Brusdal Graterol (BTV = 40.60)
I used Baseball Trade Values and even though I think the Dodgers will say no, maybe changing Graterol for another less established bullpen arm (Bickford?) would do it.
What do you guys think?
Hi, Haneto.
No, Freeman locks up 1B for Dodgers. Prefer Vargas in LF to Cooper.
Maybe Pepiot or Grove, and Outman, for Garrett or Rogers, whichever Marlins value less.
Though if Busch can play 3B in addition to 2B, he seems like the player to match with Outman in return for a Marlins pitcher
Habeto? I think you just need more attention.
So I know this will be an unpopular position in regards to Bellinger, but I’m going to take a moment to defend his value to the Dodgers. There’s no doubt Belli isn’t “worth” 18m for 2023. But…
He is unquestionably one of the best defensive OF’s in all of baseball. The advanced metrics rely way too heavily on the numbers. Bellinger’s defensive runs saved stat’s don’t come close to showing his actual value in CF.
Offense – He hits 8th in the order. If Bellinger’s 2022 at bats were simply “cut and pasted” into next season, the upcoming ban of the exaggerated shift should significantly increase his production/stats (relatively speaking.) Combined with the 19HR’s,base running, defensive ability; his value to the Dodgers increases considerably. This could also make him a potentially valuable trade deadline candidate. Time will tell if this ridiculous rule change ends up being a saving grace for players like him.
The new rules will help lefty bats and speed on the base paths will be at a premium. That together with the thin CF market and the Dodgers needs there create the distinct possibility that they will find a way to retain Bellinger. Been saying this for quite awhile. But as you say, it’s an unpopular opinion.
Blue Skies,
Dodgers may well have Belli next year, but not at 18 million via arb. Release him and negotiate, not a multi-year deal either
The Dodgers haven’t given up on Bellinger. I can see them leveraging a non-tender for a two year contract priced not much above the arbitration estimate.
I’m not really convinced that the no shift rule will be as much of a difference maker as some playing it out to be. It will obviously have some kind of positive effect for batters. Same for bigger base for base stealing but pitch clock may help base stealers as a pitcher’s best friend in holding runners is to hold the ball as long as possible. We’ll see.
For Bellinger, the issue is really K rate going higher and BB rate going down. He’s chasing out of zone, off-balance, etc. That’s lack of pitch recognition. Sure because he’s off balance a lot the babip and hard contact is also going down but that’s a secondary issue.Shift may help some but won’t matter much if he has same approach and struggles with pitch recognition.
It was designed and tested to be a significant boost to offense. However many outs lefties made hitting into the shift is that many more base hits. Bellinger included. No need to complicate matters any further.
Not shifting in general will definitely be a boost overall, but in the context of Bellinger I think you’re dreaming if you think banning the shift is going to help him much. His chase rate has increased every season since his 2019 season, which has led to his K% also going up every season since 2019, and his walk rate has gone down every season meaningfully. His walk rate in 2022 was less than half from his 2019 season. All these stats spell out a very confused hitter at the plate. Doesn’t know a ball from a strike. How many at bats do you see Bellinger take a strike, foul or chase a pitch to be down 0-2, then eventually K. It’s uncanny. Consistent bad ABs. And I’m one of the guys rooting hard for him to get out of this.
Whoa, I was asleep! Thanks for waking me up! Seriously, you are still way overthinking this. However many times he or any other lefty now makes an out to an infielder playing short center-right field is how much it helps him. Just think of how often you’ve seen lefties make outs hitting into the shift and know it won’t be happening anymore. If anyone really wanted to answer this with numbers for any given player the data is probably available, but without doing that we have to know it’s significantly more than nothing.
Yeah, the data is available. And if you had bothered to read it you’d have seen that for Bellinger, even though he is a pull hitter his 2022 wOBA against the shift was not much lower than without the shift (0.283 vs. 0.302). This whole notion that eliminating the shift is going to significantly improve Bellinger is fiction. For Bellinger there were plenty of times where he slaps the ball to the left side because he’s either way ahead on a breaking pitch or way late on a fastball. Again, pitch recognition. Those hits are no longer going to be there against a normal defense. Also, more and more plate appearances are defined by HR, BB, K, HBP, in other words zero impact by the shift in those scenarios.
More broadly, if you look at 2020 and 2021 numbers, lefty hitters had a wOBA of 0.320 against the shift both seasons, while the league average for wOBA in those seasons were 0.320 and 0.314, respectively. So, no impact one season and a fraction of an impact in the other. There are other nuances about the shift that make it less favorable. For starters, less double plays are turned with the shift on as it is more challenging to turn. They’ve also found that extra base hits (excluding HRs of course because the shift has no impact) are less likely to be hit against a normal alignment than versus the shift. Net, net, as I’ve said in the past, there probably will be some kind of positive impact for hitters, but probably will be much less than people expect and even negligible. Again, as it pertains to Bellinger I’m not buying it. He has much deeper issues that the shift will not cure.
You’re now overthinking this by an extra order of magnitude and topping it off with some reduction to the absurd.
Hmm. Hadn’t thought about Heaney.
Wouldn’t mind him in Baltimore. Would check the box for a lefty starter with DL hall up in the air as a SP.
Should have Bauer back when his suspension is reduced to one year.
Won’t be reduced. Even if it is, they would pay him but not play him. It is as much marketing as ethics but some of both.
Dream, or should I say nightmare, on.
The shift is out lawed because players are not able to hit.
In a few years these millionaires will be hitting off a tee.