Baseball’s youngest team won the AL Central, defeated the Rays in the Wild Card Series, and came within a game of advancing to the ALCS. The future is now for the Guardians, as their new young core has already matured into a contending roster.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Ramirez, 3B: $119MM through 2028
- Myles Straw, OF: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
- Emmanuel Clase, RP: $16.5MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)
Total 2023 commitments: $19.3MM
Total future commitments: $157.75MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Luke Maile (5.148): $1.3MM
- Amed Rosario (5.062): $9MM
- Shane Bieber (4.097): $10.7MM
- Anthony Gose (3.139): $800K
- Cal Quantrill (3.132): $6MM
- Josh Naylor (3.1287): $3.5MM
- Zach Plesac (3.086): $2.9MM
- Aaron Civale (3.058): $2.2MM
- James Karinchak (2.169): $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Maile, Gose
Free Agents
2022 might have been the greatest triumph yet for Cleveland’s vaunted player development system. After an 80-82 record in 2021 and a pretty quiet offseason, it seemed as if the Guardians were poised to take a step back, yet it was clear that the front office had plenty of faith in its young players. A whopping 17 different Guardians players made their Major League debuts in 2022, ranging from Rookie-of-the-Year contender Steven Kwan, postseason hero Oscar Gonzalez, and rotation regular Konnor Pilkington, to top-100 prospects like Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, and Tyler Freeman. These rookies were able to patch roster holes or even fill them outright, while a number of other pre-arb players also stepped up with big seasons.
The Guards were certainly helped by underwhelming performances by the other four AL Central teams, as well as a lot of good fortune in avoiding injuries. However, Cleveland’s recipe of strong pitching, excellent defense, speed, contact hitting, and station-to-station baseball made the club a handful for anyone. The only thing lacking was power, as the Guardians finished 29th of 30 teams in home runs (127) and 28th in Isolated Slugging (.129).
With this in mind, it isn’t quite as simple as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti just acquiring a couple of sluggers this winter and calling it a day. For one, power costs money, and payroll is always a concern in Cleveland. Roster Resource projects the Guardians for roughly $72.2MM in committed salaries heading into 2023 (including arbitration estimates), and while the club’s spending topped $146MM as recently as 2018, that was understood even at the time to be a temporary splurge. With the pandemic impacting revenues, Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll in 2021 didn’t even top the $50MM threshold. They bounced back a bit and opened this year a bit shy of $70MM but still didn’t approach franchise-record levels.
In short, don’t expect the Guardians to suddenly become big spenders just because they’re back in contention, or just because David Blitzer became a minority owner of the franchise this past summer. But, ownership increasing payroll to even the $85MM-$90MM range would certainly help the Guards add talent — or, the front office might have to get creative with how they re-allocate that $72.2MM.
This is why Amed Rosario might find himself a trade candidate. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, Rosario’s projected $9MM arbitration salary could be a little steep for a team that has a wealth of intriguing middle-infield prospects. The Guardians have certainly shown they’re willing to put their trust into younger players, so if they think any of Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, or Jose Tena are ready for prime time, Rosario may become expendable.
Even in an offseason where Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson will all be hitting free agency, Rosario holds quite a bit of value as a trade chip. Many teams obviously aren’t willing to give out the nine-figure contracts it will take to sign any of those top shortstops, and would thus have more interest in Rosario even just for one year (since he is set for free agency next winter). Since Rosario could also theoretically be moved to second base, that only increases his list of potential landing spots. On paper, the Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mariners, Brewers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, White Sox, Tigers, Giants, and Orioles are all plausible fits for at least short-term middle infield help.
If Rosario was dealt, Andres Gimenez could potentially slide over to shortstop, or just continue his Gold Glove-winning reign at second base. Gimenez’s advanced metrics indicate he is likely due for some offensive regression in 2023, but he was so great last year (.297/.377/.466 with 17 homers and 20 steals over 557 plate appearances) he’d be a dangerous hitter if he even approaches his 2022 numbers.
Gimenez will have one middle-infield position locked up, so where else could the Guardians add a bat? Naturally, there isn’t any issue at third base with superstar Jose Ramirez, and the Guards also seem set with Kwan in left field and Josh Naylor at first base/DH. Naylor hit well in his first season back from major leg surgery, and the Canadian could blossom into even more of a dangerous slugger now that he is further removed from his injury.
Finding another first base/DH type to share the two positions with Naylor seems like the most obvious spot for a new hitter. The Guardians were hoping Franmil Reyes would fill this role after his 30-homer season in 2021, yet Reyes struggled so badly that Cleveland designated him for assignment in August, allowing the Cubs to claim him on waivers. A right-handed hitter would pair best with the left-handed hitting Naylor, and depending on how much the Guardians have to spend, a free agent like Jose Abreu would be a very good fit as both a productive bat and a veteran clubhouse leader. Beyond just the first base position, Trey Mancini and Mitch Haniger can also play the outfield, or the Guards could pivot to more of a DH-only type like J.D. Martinez or Nelson Cruz.
Cleveland could aim to add more pop in the outfield, though the team will have to weigh the cost of adding hitting against possibly decreasing an excellent defensive unit. Gonzalez may be the weakest link in this regard — he isn’t as accomplished a fielder as Kwan or Myles Straw and he had a very low 3.9% walk rate while benefitting from a .345 BABIP in his rookie season.
Then again, Gonzalez has more offensive upside than Straw, a Gold Glover and Fielding Bible Award-winning center fielder who was one of the game’s worst hitters in 2022. Of all qualified batters, only Jonathan Schoop had a lower wRC+ than Straw’s 64, as he hit only .221/.291/.273 over 596 PA. Straw had excellent speed and made plenty of contact, though his .261 BABIP was less a function of bad luck and more about Straw’s near-total lack of hard contact. Getting even close to league-average offense (as Straw did with his 97 wRC+ in 2021) would make him a very valuable addition to any lineup, which was the Guardians’ logic when they signed him to a five-year extension back in April.
Jones or Will Brennan are on hand for more outfield at-bats, plus George Valera is yet another top-50 prospect who’s not far from his first taste of the majors. That gives the Guardians some cover if they did float Straw or Gonzalez in trade talks, provided these players weren’t shopped for another outfielder altogether. Speculatively, Straw could be shopped to a team looking to upgrade its outfield defense, while Gonzalez is the kind of MLB-ready, controllable bat that could appeal to a lot of teams.
Speculatively, Gonzalez could fit as part of a trade package Cleveland might offer to the Athletics in exchange for Sean Murphy. The Guardians’ interest in Murphy dates back at least to the trade deadline, and while Murphy would be a great addition to many rosters, he’d be a particularly ideal match in Cleveland considering the team’s focus on defense and game-calling from the catcher position. Not only is Murphy a strong defensive backstop, he is also an accomplished hitter. He’s also controllable through the 2025 season and projected for just a $3.5MM salary next year.
Between center field and catcher, the Guardians were basically playing with only seven lineup spots, given how little Straw and the Austin Hedges/Luke Maile tandem (with a few games from Sandy Leon, Bo Naylor, and Bryan Lavastida) provided at the plate in 2022. Since Hedges is a free agent and Maile is a non-tender candidate, the catching position represents the cleanest way for the Guards to simply add a better hitter to the mix. Plus, the younger Naylor brother is an interesting prospect in his own right, so Cleveland might feel it already has an in-house offensive upgrade.
If the Guardians do trust Naylor, they could roll with a Naylor/Maile platoon in 2023, or even re-sign Hedges for platoon duty and either let Maile go or try to retain him on a new minor league contract. This might be Cleveland’s strategy if other bats were acquired at, say, DH or right field, as the Guards might then feel more comfortable about sticking with defense behind the plate and hoping Naylor could become the latest breakout rookie.
Murphy isn’t the only external option, of course, even though quality bats are rather scarce at the catcher position. Free agent Willson Contreras will be too expensive, though Christian Vazquez might conceivably fall within their price range. On the trade front, the A’s and Blue Jays are the top options for available catchers, and the Guardians have enough interesting players in both the farm system and on the MLB roster to perhaps outbid many other catcher-needy teams.
The Guardians could also conceivably trade from their rotation depth, with Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac perhaps expendable at the back of the rotation given how Cleveland has a number of young arms ready to start banking Major League innings. With an eye towards arbitration costs, it wouldn’t be a shock if one of Cal Quantrill (projected $6MM) or Shane Bieber ($10.7MM) were dealt, though those two are more trusted members of the starting five.
Bieber, naturally, has been included in a lot of trade speculation as his price tag continues to rise. However, since he is still controlled through the 2024 season, he probably won’t be shopped until the 2023 trade deadline at the absolute earliest, and that would likely only happen if the Guardians fell out of the playoff race. Pilkington, Cody Morris, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, and top prospect Daniel Espino are among the many young starters who could be rotation options for 2023, yet using those youngsters to replace Bieber’s ace-level production is a taller order than replacing the more modest contributions of Civale or Plesac.
Cleveland’s ability to find and develop pitching provides the team with some rare flexibility in deciding whether or not to trade from its surplus, and it is possible the Guardians might just stand pat this winter, at least in terms of any major deals. As noted, the Guards enjoyed quite a bit of good health in 2022, so they might want to retain their pitching depth as protection against the injury bug returning with a vengeance.
This depth filters down to the bullpen, as the Guardians could reinforce their already-strong relief corps with some of these pitchers coming up from the minors. Headlined by star closer Emmanuel Clase, the Cleveland bullpen was one of baseball’s best last season, and not a lot of tinkering might need to be done. Though the relievers gained some valuable experience in both the regular season and during the playoffs, it’s still a young bullpen that could do with a veteran arm, similar to the role that Bryan Shaw filled in 2022. Though Shaw had a disappointing year and was outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the season, the Guards might still pursue a reunion on a minor league contract, given the respect he’s earned as a clubhouse leader to his younger teammates.
Speaking of leadership, it has already been confirmed Terry Francona will be returning for at least one more season as Cleveland’s manager. Physical problems kept Francona away from the team for big portions of both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, yet the veteran skipper returned to guide his young roster to the ninth winning season of his decade-long run in Cleveland.
With Francona’s health issues potentially heralding the end of his time in the dugout at some point in the not too distant future, he would surely love to capture one more World Series ring (and break another franchise’s title drought) before calling it a career. The fact that a championship is now a plausible goal is a sign of how well the team has reloaded in just a year’s time, though the Guards will also have to caution against growing pains for their many rookies. Some canny offseason additions can help protect against any sophomore slumps, and if enough youngsters continue to develop and Ramirez continues to deliver MVP-level production, the Guardians look like they’ll be dangerous again in 2023.
The Guardians didn’t play station to station baseball. They did the opposite of that.
True- they took extra stations whenever they could
Josh Naylor, lol.
What a creepy weirdo.
I’m not in the loop, why is he creepy?
Ditto
m.youtube.com/watch?v=kxvtYHIVqJ4
Maybe this? But I think it’s funny.
Josh is actually a very soft-spoken young man who fought back from a gruesome leg injury. He is an excellent teammate from all reports.
Good Canadian kid , hockey player mentality , Brother Bo also
Hmm yes, just as i expected.. exactly what daddy wanted you to say.
This is the internet. You are judged on what you write, and nothing else. You wrote something derogatory about Naylor, and were asked to document it. You didn’t. And now you are copping an attitude because everyone is calling you out.
Document what? My opinion?
He’s weird and creepy.. uhh, there. My attitude is neutral.
You seem like a weirdo honestly.
We are communicating on a mlb trade rumor site.. we are all weirdos pal.
Seems to be the consensus that you’re the No. 1 weirdo. Now, take your uncalled for insults to some other venue.
Yeah, I’m fine with that.
And, I’m not going to any other venue.
Just go ahead and mute me dude
Thanks, Mark, for an excellent summary of what the Guardians did this year and what they will likely do over the winter to strengthen this exciting young team. Abreu would be a perfect fit for CLE if they can afford him, although his offensive numbers have decreased recently. Mancini would fit in well, too. As you pointed out, CLE has plenty of young players (infielders, outfielders, and pitchers) to deal for a power bat if they want. Again, the issue is affordability. I see both Rosario and Plesac being the most logical to headline any trades.
I wouldn’t go for Abreau. his power and rbi numbers fell last year but he did hit for average. his job was to drive in runs and it was the first time in a wsox uniform that he didn’t drive in at least 100 runs. he didn’t even reach 20 hr. Vaughn led the team with 17. abreau signed 3 year contract for just $50 mm in 2020. he also asked not to play in the Sox final game of the season so he could watch because he’s already thinking about a coaching career.
15 hr is a little discouraging for a bat only in 157 games. but 40 is a lot of doubles, instant scoring position is always good. and a .378 obp when offense league wide fell off a cliff. i don’t think he’s going to command big money, guardians make a lot of sense
I’m thinking Joey Gallo would be a great fit for Cleveland. After last year he will be looking for a pillow contract and hopefully return to form next year. He is only 28 so he still has a season or 2 to right the ship with enough time to score a big contract. I can’t think of a better win win for both player and team. Few players can offer his power and his excellent defense will fit right in. If Francona can’t fix him then he should start thinking about Japan.
Yuck. No to Gallo for me…but I could see the logic if he sits out there in FA.
If the team wants to go that route though, I think making an early strike on Michael Conforto could be the ticket. He will likely be looking for a one-year deal to take another run at a big FA contract. He won’t get one this year coming off shoulder surgery. I think a two-year deal with an opt-out after year one would be a match for both player and team.
I find it hard to believe the Braves would be interested in Rosario at short. Grissom can hit better and play short just as poorly as Rosario.
Amed Rosario to the Jays for Gabriel Moreno?
Jays can get more for Moreno than one year of Rosario and his 9 million salary. I could see CLE getting player quantity return, not a player quality return for him.
No chance. 6 years of Moreno for 1 year of Rosario? And TO already has a SS.
I could see Boston making a play for him if Bogaerts walks. His salary and sketchy defense won’t bring back a quality MLB player unless Cleveland eats a chunk of his salary. Be happy for salary relief a top 10 prospect from a decent farm and a lottery ticket or 2. Unless of course some GM out there absolutely loves him and overpays. I just don’t see it with the available free agent class that won’t cost anything but money and most MI needy teams having hyped prospects that are ready or close to it. If you really want him gone this off-season the best I can think of would be to package him with someone like Bieber then trade them to a team like the Yankees. NY would be more inclined to give up one of their stud SS prospects if they had someone like Rosario to help the transition. They thought they were getting that with IKF this year and they were wrong. Plus they have 2 decent backup catchers and several solid relievers Cleveland could pick from in addition to the prospects Bieber would bring back. Cashman seems to love TOR pitchers with an injury history, offering Bieber would definitely get him drooling.
Cleveland already has plenty of SS prospects. They are not going to trade Bieber for more SS. prospects.
Mark should have also mentioned Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee, who like Daniel Espino, are the crown Jewels of the Cleveland pitching prospects.
Agreed. You obviously can’t list everybody, but Curry and Battenfield in particular are probably closer to spot starters/backend guys. They’re both basically major league ready which is probably why they were mentioned, but Bibee and Williams are pretty close behind (same level as Espino) and their ceilings are way higher.
Cards should be in on Rosario. We can make a better offer than most.
Understand the cookie-cutter view MLBTR does in analyzing MLB teams for the following season, but I don’t think the FO and Francona see things that way at all.
They aren’t going to trade their best young power hitter when it’s said they need power hitters. They aren’t going to package some of their best young players to get a catcher with 3 years of control so that he can block a catcher they’ve been developing for years that has 6 years of control.
The Guardians are an extremely player-first oriented organization – from both the FO and manager/coaches. They’re patient with players and work to bring them along. They’re just beginning to come out of a rebuild, and are not going to do what the Blue Jays and White Sox have done – package youngsters in trade for high-priced veterans that are passing their peak production years while their salaries continue to go up. Like the Orioles (I read they need middle infield help….actually their problem is – like Cleveland – that they have too many good middle infielders and can’t play them all) they have the best future in the AL and possibly in all of MLB.
Because Cleveland has a 40 man roster crunch with even more youngsters that need to be protected from Rule 5, they’ll probably make a many-for-one trade for a starting pitcher and perhaps a veteran bat….although the bat may come in an in-season trade. They’re not going to minimize their future potential to win in 2023. This is a team that should be in contention for another 5 years.
Cleveland is in win-now mode and are very unlikely to be able to afford to sign Bieber long-term so the next 2 years before he reaches free agency are probably their best opportunity to win a championship for the time being, and catcher is definitely a position that could be upgraded towards that end. They will still have Naylor in 3 years when Murphy would reach free agency and he’ll still only be 25 at that point so I don’t really see Bo’s presence as a major impediment to them swinging a deal with Oakland.
King Floch;
No.
lol okay
Samuel is right on target. No mention in the outlook on a quiet 2022 trade deadline for CLE (and all the second-guessing that came along with it). They want to see what they have. If 40-man limits force them to either trade or lose intriguing prospects, they’ll seek a trade, but Cleveland doesn’t view any gap (power, offense out of LF/C) as real until the kids get a real look at the ML level. If they’re gonna shift into win-now mode, it’ll never be during the offseason when next year’s chances are so muddy – we’ll see it at the deadline.
It does actually mention their 2022 trade deadline, specifically the fact they discussed a deal for Sean Murphy with Oakland.
Spot on Sam ! The MLBTR speculation around the Indians is ridiculous. Just bc a team can’t blow 30 mil past the soft cap makes them financial liability that can’t afford 2 mil or 10 mil salaries. Lol what ?!? Look at their history – they have signed plenty of big names and they have a ton of money to spend. Which they will do so if they can spend it wisely.
Or trade the ss from the best defensive team in baseball. Huh?! Bc he makes 9 mil ?? That will never happen under those circumstances. Indians have more than a decade on their resume of being smarter than that.
Bo Naylor is not there defensively and certainly won’t be the everyday C to begin the year. His bat is ahead of the glove.
Maybe they choose to just roll with Hedges again but C is a position they could be looking for.
I think Danny Jansen makes more sense as a trade candidate.
Oscar Gonzalez is a DH. He played RF very stiff and ugly. I don’t know that his approach plays over the long term either. If he’s a hit—you have a Teoscar Hernandez type. I don’t know that he’s a guy they wouldn’t move if it was for another piece.
The rules change that is coming really helps Cleveland. They’re built on speed and contact.
I want them to pick Malie over hedges
I assume you are talking about Gonzaleznas a guy you think the FO.wouldnt trade. Hate to break it to you, but he I likely at the TOP of the list of guys they would trade today. Valera is coming fast, so Gonzalez is expendable. Now they won’t give him away, but his value might be higher right now than it will ever be.
Jays can’t get anything for Moreno , overhyped in Toronto , see trade deadline , no one was interested
Edp007;
Mark Shapiro has a history of making catchers out of players that don’t have a set position, but look like they can hit.
I’m skeptical about Moreno as well. Haven’t seen him handle a staff. Now they’re talking about moving him to 3B (they have one of the best 3B’s in MLB), DH (they already have multiple DH’s) or the OF…but they spent a lot of money on a CF with 4 years left on his contract that can’t play CF so he has to play one of the already crowded corners …..if Moreno goes to the OF he sure isn’t going to play CF).
As I wrote above, I think the Jays made the mistake of trading young players too early for name veterans in order to win, and are now heading south.
As for their 3 Catchers – am sure they can trade one. But I don’t think MLB execs value players as fans / rotisserie league players do. The execs are looking for qualities other than what sort of bat do they have compared to other catchers.
Sammy , the Jays are also skeptics regarding Moreno. No power. Not sure he will hit for avge either. Catching skills are not yet mlb caliber. Arm is good though.
The BJ’s like to over hype the mistake signings and high draft / prospects that they feel are not star mlb potential so they can trade high as possible.
See Jeff Hoffman , Franklin Barreto, Austen Martin etc etc
Jays didn’t trade a whole hell of a lot.
Hoglund might be the biggest loss but he’s years off. Austin Martin is a so-so prospect now and SWR is a back of the rotation arm. Groshans? We’ll see but the production has never really matched the hype.
Everyone else were just guys.
@SAM
Kirk was the AS game catcher. Who was a surprisingly improved C last year. Moreno is a consensus top 20 prospect and Jansen is a damn fine defensive catcher who can hit.
Moreno is the only non established receiver but has the potential to be a good one.
Orioles2024;
I’m tired of hearing about the Jays catchers – how good they all are and how maybe they’ll trade one.
Fine. Trade one or clam up about it.
Their catchers are sensational. Got it.
There’s this….
The Dodgers traded their #3 catcher as a part of the Trea Turner / Schurzer deal a year ago. I was surprised they gave him up.
(The Nationals seem to be ruining him as well as the pitcher the Dodgers sent over….they have a recent history of ruining pitchers and catchers.).
In spite of drafting low for years the Dodgers again have one of the top ranked farm systems in MLB. Their #1 prospect is yet another catcher. I don’t have to read that every other day from Dodgers fans about their 3 enviable catchers.
I believe that hitting is the last thing a catcher has to do – handling a pitching staff, calling a game and playing D – especially blocking pitches in the dirt – are far more important than hitting 4 times a game. I read contradictory comments on here from Jays fans as to how those catchers perform behind the plate. I don’t watch many Jays games so I haven’t formulated an opinion yet (am unimpressed with the little I’ve seen of Kirk).
Catcher is the most important player on a team. A team can’t play 3 catchers at the same time. It’s important to have 2 – whether they’re sharing the position or one is a backup. The Jays have 3. Got it.
You’re an Oriole fan? I watched a lot of their games this year – Adley Rutschman in particular. He does wonders for everyone on that pitching staff. He’s the next great catcher, following Molina and Realmuto. At this time I don’t put any of the 3 Blue Jays catchers near his class…or with what the 3 Dodgers catchers do.
His value is WAY higher than you are leading on. He can do the most important thing in baseball better than 95% players – hit.
Edp007
Jays can’t get anything for Moreno , overhyped in Toronto see trade deadline , no one was interested
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Just out of curiosity, do you have any sources that suggest that TO was actively trying to trade Moreno?
And, this sounds just like RS fans (and others) that suggest that the RS hype their prospects. ALL prospects are ranked by numerous and high-quality 3rd parties. Moreno was ranked #7 by BA, and #22 by BP, and FG has him rated as a 60 FV.
Living in Toronto market , there was plenty of talk. Also at trade deadline time everything and everyone is always up for discussion.
Will Benson is not getting more ABs. You’re thinking of Will Brennan, who got a September call-up and proceeded to slash 357/.400/.500
I remember when the Cardinals passed on Tito in favor of Mike Matheny because Tito wasn’t religious enough and Matheny embodied a man of faith.
I see Will Brennan having a good season next year. He’s basically another Steven Kwan type of hitter with good bat to ball skills.
I’m a huge Brennan fan but I don’t necessarily think he’s another Kwan. It’s not fair to compare anyone’s bat to ball skills to Kwan’s, but I’d give a moderate edge to Kwan in contact and a moderate edge to Brennan in power.
I’d love for Brennan to eventually take a starting spot, but if he goes into spring penciled in as a starter then they didn’t do enough this offseason. I like him and I like Valera (plus Kwan and Oscar), but I also don’t want them sitting on their hands and just hoping everything gets better because even the best young players are still pretty high-variance outcomes.
Not sure why the Orioles would be interested in Rosario, they already have an infield logjam of their own forming with Henderson, Urias, Mateo, and Vavra already on the MLB roster and Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby waiting in the wings in the minors, all 3 of which posted big numbers and reached AAA in 2022.
King Floch;
Wrote the same thing above.
MLBTR seems to comes to conclusions about players / organizations and pushes those uniformly in their articles. I’ve tried to figure out their criteria based on what they publish, but it’s inconsistent.
Example: Years ago Jeff McNeil was called up in mid-season by the Mets. He hit .300 the rest of the year. I watched him play. He was obviously a solid hitter, took some walks, and played a decent 2B – although not gold glove. He was a gamer. But he wasn’t a heralded prospect.
For whatever reason MLBTR discounted what he’d done, and numerous articles from multiple writers came out that off-season driving home the point that the Mets needed a 2B. I kept writing in the comment section that McNeil was fine, they didn’t need a 2B. Yet they continued to slight him. This year he won the NL batting title – but MLBTR doesn’t put much stock in BA. Am not sure what they do put stock in, because they cite different statistics when reviewing different players.
There is no uniform way of evaluating MLB teams or MLB players by looking at their statistics. Organizations have different philosophies, and different systems that evolve from them (I heard HOF pitcher Jim Palmer comment during a game this past season that teams have different systems for their pitchers…of course). Players have roles on teams, and those roles evolve for too many reasons to list here.
One has to know what individual FO’s are trying to do each year – which is impossible if one isn’t in the executive meetings. What I do is watch the moves teams make – or don’t make – and try to figure where they are in the rebuild / contention process….until it changes.
numerous articles from multiple writers came out that off-season driving home the point that the Mets needed a 2B.
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So many writers don’t understand the financial side of baseball. And almost as many fans. If I have a 2-WAR player, at minimum wage, I almost never need to replace him. Maybe if you have two GG SS’s, or two 30-HR DHs, and you can’t play both at once.
As a RS fan, if I thought Duran could give me a 1.5 WAR, I’d play him for at least the next three years, and spend my money on spots where I have nothing.
This is the difference between say Houston & the Mets. The Mets didn’t want to wait on Giminez & Rosario, so they jumped for Lindor. Houston was more than happy to allow Correa’s talent AND salary go, get a draft pick, and start a minimum wage Pena. I think Pena out-performed, but all Houston cared about was getting a minimum-wage SS that could field and get the occasional hit.
Joe;
As I’m sure you’ve seen, it’s different team philosophies between the Red Sox and Astros. The Astros let Pena come in this year as an entry-level type employee (at a bit over 2% of Correa’s salary which allowed the Astros to used some of the money elsewhere), just asking him to field (he wound up providing quite a few clutch hits), while requiring the veterans on the team to hit a little more to make up for Correa’s lost production. THIS is exactly the reason the Astros have been in sustainable contention for 8 years.
The Red Sox and most of their fans and media (like the Yankees and most of their fans and media) don’t want to be bothered with that.
That was the old RS, under DD. The new regime, for better or worse, will likely allow Bogaerts to leave, rather than overpay. JD will leave. Eovaldi, depending on price, might leave.
But before that, we need to finish the pipeline. You can only allow players to walk if you have players to replace them. That’s what Theo was referring to when he said ‘bridge year’. Sometimes it pays to acquire outside help while waiting on your own prospects. Unfortunately, too many fans didn’t understand what he was saying.
Joe;
Because of changes in the bylaws – i.e. penalties – MLB teams are changing the way they operate.
It’s pretty clear that fans in NYC, Boston, and SF won’t accept that.
I agree, I predicted that Pena would eventually take over for Correa and would have a modest rookie season. Obviously, he’s performed better than I expected. This is one example of why you don’t trade away your whole farm system and I still don’t understand why some people think it’s a good idea. Imagine if Pena had been traded away while he was a prospect, who would then replace Correa. Some teams I guess just have their own ways of running their respective organizations.
’23 salary commitments- $19M. That’s sad.
$19M before arbitration. Cleveland was the youngest team in MLB. What do you expect.
I think the guardians should look to strengthen an already good team. winning the division shouldn’t be the goal. they’re good enough to go even farther in the PO.
What is sad about that?? They have their best bat locked up for 6 yrs, 2 yrs left of team control on their best arm, and majority of other key players locked up for multiple years. Not to mention coming 1 game shy of ALCS. Most teams in MLB would love to b in CLE position.
Why is that sad? They got more wins per dollar spent than any other team in the league. In business, that is good margins.
Yes and no. It’s like having a best-in-class neighborhood pizza joint. You do well, but could you do better? I like Cleveland’s approach, but was a little disappointed they didn’t add a bat at the deadline.
Joe;
Had they added a bat at the deadline many of the players such as Oscar Gonzalez would have spent more time on the bench. The team was coming out of a rebuild. They needed their hitters to get exposed to batting in pressure situations. They were not a realistic WS contender. Most were surprised they went as far as they did (I expected they’d get swept the first post-season series, but was happy they’d get some playoff experience).
Cleveland Outlook for 2023 and NOT one mention of Triston McKenzie. Very surprising….
Other than adding some pop to the lineup and sorting out some supporting cast/platoon roles in the OF and IF, I expect a pretty passive offseason for Cleveland again. The most interesting moves could be who gets released to protect players from the R5. The other 29 teams will watch with keen interest.
IMO you have to look at Cleveland’s roster construction and internal options first in trying to map out the off season.
They are heavily left handed and one of the worst offenses vs left hand pitching. They Guardians got away with it, in part because their division was devoid of many lefty pitchers. In spite of this obvious weakness, their number of plate appearances vs lefties were middle of the pack. That is unlikely to happen under the new schedule.
If you look at their internal options to fix this problem, there aren’t any.
Bo Naylor, Brennan, Benson, and Valera are all left handed. Arias is right handed, but hasn’t hit lefties for the past two seasons…a combined OPS of around .735.
The Guardians will have to go outside to find some right side pop, and there are gonna be several available, either in trade or free agency. But if they trade Rosario…who was their best hitter RH vs lefties (124 wRC+), they will need two additions.
The Guardians also (obviously) value defense and defensive flexibility. They won’t sacrifice much defense in order to gain RH offense. So, look at RH bats that can rotate between 1B, OF, and DH….and/or a solid defensive catcher who can hit well for a catcher.
I think also that there is a general concensus that the ownership won’t spend money, but previously in the same situation…coming off a playoff run in 2016, and with a new minority owner…they spent to bring in a veteran big bat. They aren’t gonna spend at the top of the market, but there will be plenty of mid tier FAs and available trade targets to fill the need.
CATS44;
You’re totally on target.
The imbalance of LH-RH hitters is something the young Orioles have as well. A few reasons for it: 1) Both teams have favorable RF dimensions in their home parks, but not so in LF – Cleveland has a high wall in LF, Baltimore moved their LH wall back substantially for 2022; and 2) in general LH batters hit the ball differently – and more favorably than RH batters – it has to do with physiology.
I’m with you in thinking there has to be a balance of RH hitters in their line-ups – particularly on the road. It’s why LH pitchers are so valuable – particularly relivers that can pitch multiple times a week in critical situations.
It bothers me when Orioles fans want to trade Santander (switch hitter) or Hays for a pitcher when they’re already too LH. And the Guardians have 2 young CF’s that can hit better than Myles Straw, but if they trade him and as you brought up – Amad Rosario – then they’ll be in the same position they were in years ago when Shapiro was still there: teams were calling up LH pitchers from AAA the day before a series against the Indians (then), and were shutting them down. Since then the rules have changed some about call-up’s, but teams still do it to some degree.
Owen Miller got a lot of playing time this year. He wasn’t an especially prolific hitter, but he did bat RH. Tyler Freeman is RH and looks like he can hit some.
This imbalance is going to be a problem if it isn’t addressed.
I do expect them to bring in a strong RH bat. But due to salary constraints it’ll probably be an in-season acquisition where they take on the remaining salary. They’ve done this before.
No matter how you spin it, the people in Cleveland simply will not show up to support this team. It is time for the Dolan’s to do the right thing and move this club to Nashville. Moving the club to Nashville would radically increase the franchise value and put the club in a stadium where crowds would show up on a consistent basis, not just when they were in the playoffs or when they built a new stadium as has been Cleveland’s reputation in the past. There were night’s this past season where the Toledo Mud Hens and Columbus Clippers outdrew the “Guardians”.. Moving the club to Nashville would allow Cleveland to become what it really should have been all along- a minor league city. The Dolan’s need to make a move to Nashville ASAP as the Las Vegas option is off the table and Tampa Bay might take the Nashville option first. The time to act on this move is now.
baji kimran;
1. The people of Cleveland do show up when the team is good.
2. No one knows how Nashville will support a team when it’s going through hard times or a rebuild.
3. Cleveland is not a “minor league city” – they’ve had major league baseball for well over 100 years.
4. The Guardians play in a major league baseball park (does Nashville have one?). They signed a long-term lease to keep the team playing at their park till 2036.
Learn history and keep up with changes.
The people of Cleveland do show up when the team is good.
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That’s debatable. Cleveland has made the playoffs in 6 of the past 10 years, and probably a top-5 overall record. But never drew more than 2.0M fans. And they were #7 out of 30 teams in wins, and got 1.296M fans. That’s #25.
In the big v small market debate, it should be pointed out that the top payrolls have top fan support. If the locals refuse to support the team, the team will have a small payroll.
Joe;
I know people in Cleveland. The entire city is excited about this team. Great sports town.
Almost all those players made their name playing for Cleveland. That mean a lot to fans. it’s nice to have one or two guys from other organizations, but it’s best to have your guys.
Let’s watch how attendance does in 2023 and throughout this contending run.
Samuel – it is a football city and by a wide margin. It’s the sad reality because they have consistently put really good teams on the field.
Look back to 2016.. they went to game 7 of the WS. Then in the offseason they made a splashy free agent addition in signing Edwin Encarnacion. Still, they barely managed to draw 2 million fans in 2017 and were in the bottom-third of attendance. I wouldn’t expect much in the way of attendance for 2023.
CLE does indeed need to upgrade at C with someone who can produce now. Christian Vazquez on a 2-year deal should solve that problem. Don’t even think about bringing Hedges back. Great guy and a decent defender, but he’s an automatic out – no denying it. Also need a RH DH with power. Haniger basically fits that description, but the FO will be too spooked by his injury history, and so would I. Power is needed first and foremost, and if it takes some combo of Plesac, Civale, Straw, Freeman, Arias to get it, I’m all in. Hate to see them trade Rosario’s bat because he was arguably one of their most consistent hitters this year wire-to-wire.
Strsw is the CF in Cleveland. His defense trumps his offense and he is miles ahead of any other CF candidate in the system. Moving Kwan to center would weaken two defensive positions. The Guardians are not gonna tear down the defense, a pillar of its contention, to add offense.
While Freeman and Miller are RH bats, neither has pop, and guys like Freeman and Brennan are virtual carbon copies of what they already have…IF they do hit.
If you look at all the possible acquisitions and measure them against any seeming constraints the organization may have, here are two names that fit the roster…Juan Yepez and Wil Myers. Neither name may jump out for Guardian fans. Neither is a Jose Abreu…but in some ways they are a better fit…and far less costly.
Both can play multiple positions…1B and OF. Myers is a pretty fair defensive 1B. Both hit lefties well and are passable vs same handed pitching. Yepez in his minor league career has hammered lefties.
Myers will cost maybe half of what Abreu will. A trade for Yepez…who has no position in St Louis, outside of DH..wouldn’t be nearly as costly as most trade ideas being bandied about.
Both put up solid OPS vs lefties…something Cleveland looks for…and neither have particularly high K rates vs lefties…something Cleveland tries to avoid.
I’ve thought about Myers for many teams.
Actually, he made 50% more in salary than Jose Abreu did in 2022. Don’t know what sort of salary he can get for 2023.
Cleveland can stay in the hunt till August. If they need a strong RH bat by then they can trade for a RH hitter having a good season and only be responsible for his remaining salary.
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As for Rosario – 3 months ago I figured he’d be traded this off-season. But I read they were talking extension with him. If they can get him signed without a no-trade clause I believe he’ll be with them for at least a few more years. Hard to trade your team leaders. If they can’t get him extended then I think they move him by the trading deadline at the latest, providing that one of their middle infield youngsters is having a decent year.
The Guardians will dip into minor league free agents to bring players to spring training. Other than maybe adding a Catcher I wouldn’t expect them to be active in free agency (though strangely i could see them bringing Carlos Santana back to finish his career)
I really would like to see Cle make a run for Mitch Haniger. I think would be a good fit and alternate for Naylor. He is right handed, has big power, should hit around .250, and may not be as expensive as once thought coming off of his injury, and his prone to injury may drive his price down even more. If he stays healthy he is one of the best power hitters in the AL.