It’s been widely reported over the past several months — really, dating back to last offseason — that the Marlins are open to dealing from their wealth of starting pitching depth in order to solidify other needs on the roster. That’s led to righty Pablo Lopez, who drew strong interest from the Yankees and the Dodgers at the trade deadline, being one of the most heavily speculated-upon trade candidates of the 2022-23 offseason. However, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes in his latest Marlins notebook column that the team may be more open to moving left-hander Trevor Rogers than Lopez.
The 25-year-old Rogers is coming off a down year — nowhere near the excellent season enjoyed by Lopez — but would appeal to other teams in a different capacity. While acquiring Lopez would likely require trading a bevy of prospects for a pitcher at his value’s peak, Rogers is more of a buy-low option on the heels of a down 2022 season. The former first-round pick was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up to Jonathan India in 2021, when he tossed 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball with a hefty 28.6% strikeout rate and a solid enough 8.4% walk rate.
The 2022 season was a brutal sophomore campaign for Rogers, however. Back spasms and a lat strain prompted a pair of IL stints for the 6’5″ lefty, and his results when healthy enough to take the mound didn’t even come close to that brilliant rookie output. In 107 innings, Rogers worked to a 5.47 ERA that was more than double his 2021 mark, and his strikeout rate fell by more than six percentage points (to 22.2%) while his walk rate crept up to 9.4%. After allowing just 0.41 homers per nine innings in 2021 (1.1% of his opponents took him deep), Rogers yielded an average of 1.26 homers per nine frames (3.1%).
In addition to the discrepancy between the pair’s 2022 seasons, Lopez is under team control for only two more years and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.6MM in his second year of arbitration. Rogers, meanwhile, is not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled for another four seasons. Both players would be highly appealing to the majority of clubs seeking rotation help this offseason, but a win-now club might feel better about plugging the veteran Lopez into its rotation, as he’s coming off a career-high 180 innings and has worked to a combined 3.52 ERA (3.48 FIP, 3.69 SIERA) over his past three seasons.
As was the case last offseason, it’s not a lock that the Marlins will trade any of their current big league rotation options. Many similar rumblings echoed throughout the 2021-22 offseason, but at the end of the day, the most notable arm the Fish had moved was right-hander Zach Thompson, who’d been their fifth starter. That the Marlins are open to moving Lopez and perhaps even more open to moving Rogers is notable, but that hardly means they plan to shop either pitcher and trade him for the best offer.
Rather, Miami appears likely to again set its sights on solidifying its center field vacancy this offseason. That didn’t transpire last year, and the team instead relied entirely on in-house options — most of whom were corner outfielders that were clearly miscast in center. Jesus Sanchez, former top prospect JJ Bleday and Bryan De La Cruz all logged significant time in center, but none of that trio drew particularly strong defensive grades for their efforts there.
Looking ahead to 2023, Miami will have to hope for better results from Avisail Garcia in one corner outfield spot and could again look to the trio of Sanchez, Bleday and De La Cruz as outfield components — though this time more likely in whichever corner is not occupied by Garcia. Jackson writes within his column that the bulk of Jorge Soler’s playing time will likely come at designated hitter next season, so he looks like an occasional outfield option, at best.
While center field is perhaps the most obvious area of need, Miami could also use upgrades at a variety of positions. Third base seems like another possible focus, and Miami lacks an obvious first baseman aside from Garrett Cooper, who’s been a candidate to be traded himself dating back to the deadline.
Of course, most fans salivate over the mere notion of 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara being made available in a trade, but with four years remaining on an affordable contract, there’s little to no hope of such a scenario actually transpiring. Alcantara is a veritable lock to be Miami’s Opening Day starter in 2023, and if Lopez isn’t traded, he’ll presumably slot into the second spot in the rotation. The Marlins will also lean on a resurgent Jesus Luzardo and hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera — a longtime top prospect who broke out with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts last year.
Rogers and fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett are the favorites to occupy the fifth spot in the rotation, particularly with top prospects Max Meyer (Tommy John), Jake Eder (Tommy John) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder) all recovering from surgery. Right-hander Eury Perez reached Double-A at just 19 years of age in 2023 and could be another rotation option before long; he’s widely considered to be among the ten best prospects in all of baseball and, unsurprisingly, is considered squarely off the table (as is the case with Alcantara), per Jackson’s report.
JockStrap
You can never have enough pitching. Why trade? Marlins need to open their wallet.
iang2424
Yes you’re right never enough pitching but when your offense is as bad as it is then you have trade from a surplus to improve another area.
JockStrap
That would be “opening their wallet”
Joe It All
You can open the wallet as much as you like but that doesn’t necessarily mean the free agents that would make a difference are going to sign on the bottom line. It takes two to tango. Some teams can only pull in marquee talent by hitting on a draft pick or via the trade market.
MuleorAstroMule
There are 10-12 impact bats available in free agency for 30 teams. But maybe the Marlins will get lucky and no other team will think to spend money.
JockStrap
” Some teams can only pull in marquee talent by hitting on a draft pick or via the trade market.” These teams choose to run their business this way.
KamKid
You can spend money in trade too. I don’t follow the Marlins too closely other than eyeing them up as trade partners, but I kind of agree with the sentiment that they shouldn’t subtract any of the pitching that can help them now and is also controllable. Why not just add to that team while they have those players. Use prospects if you have to but you can also just take on fairly paid players who don’t have a ton of surplus trade value without subtracting from your major league team. I doubt they are going to go eat bad contracts in order to get other talent attached in the way the Mariners took on Suarez and Winker, but they could probably afford to get some guys in their later arb years without trading someone who projects to be in their rotation.
JockStrap
my thoughts exactly
formerlyz
As I’ve said countless times, and it was shown pretty clearly even as soon as this season, that surplus goes away pretty quickly the moment 2 or 3 guys fall off and a couple of other guys get injured
KamKid
If there is an actual surplus and you have other needs, it makes sense to at least explore it. But I don’t know how much it’s a surplus if a couple of the guys are not projected to be back from injury.
Moonlight Graham
Because the offense.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Braxton Garrett or Trevor Rogers, in return for Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy.
Mr. LaForge, make it so.
jtango
Spot on. The DIamondbacks have 4 lefty hitting centerfielders, Heck, Arizona could trade both of them (and add some corner-only guy to play alongside Varsho and Carroll) and still be just fine.
JoeBrady
I think Rogers is worth a shot. Miami only gave him 26 innings above A+ before promoting him. It could be that he needed a chance to work thru some adversity before his promotion. Or it could be that he was working thru some low-key injuries.
But he was a high pick, had an excellent A+ season, and an excellent rookie season. That all points to talent. I like him for the RS, assuming his lat is okay.
formerlyz
He had some mechanical issues and reverted back to what I originally thought he was when they drafted him, instead of the TOR arm he looked like before his family had the really unfortunate covid situation. He never really came back from that. Hopefully with some more time from that situation, he can get back fo what he was doing
OIC2021
Guardians trade of CF Myles Straw for 1B Gordon Cooper could be announced tonight
Rsox
That would be a great pickup for the Marlins as no one expects much from Gordon Cooper…
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Gordon’s sells fish sticks. Fish have Garrett Cooper.
lesterdnightfly
Aren’t “fish sticks” what the Marlins hit with?
p.s. It’s Gortons that sells fish, not Gordons. Gordons sells gin.
Samuel
OIC2021;
Great trade idea…..
Then Josh Naylor can become a LH starting pitcher.
rangers13
Garver, Taveras, Foscue and Harris for Rogers, might work for both teams.
Unknown69420
Can Rogers net a top 100 prospect???
CNichols
I think they’d be trading him to fill a position player need as opposed to a prospect focused return.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Concur, Rogers for an outfielder or third baseman.
slider32
Agreed, the Marlins need upgrades to their position players, that’s why they are trading a pitcher. Lopez would get you that but Rogers might not!
RyanD44
Gabriel Moreno for Pablo Lopez.
Make it happen.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
Anyone else think it was hilarious that Bleday was ever ranked as a top prospect? The dude’s barely cracked the Mendoza line everywhere he’s been..
MLB Top 100 Commenter
He hit well before being drafted, happens all the time. Reasonable ranking before, but now he projects as depth.
lesterdnightfly
“Anyone else think it was hilarious that Bleday was ever ranked as a top prospect?”
–No. Just you.
sandman12
The Marlins have 8 spots (behind Jazz Chisholm) in need of upgrade! Sandy Alcantara to Dodgers for Cartays, Busch, Vargas, Pages and Oatman is the logical way to turn this bleak situation around.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Marlins would want much more for Alcantara. Try Cartaya, Vargas, Busch, Pages, Rios, Miller, and May.
And Dodgers have to take Avisail Garcia along with Sandy Alcantara.
Mr. LaForge, make it so.
ohyeadam
Don’t sell low on Rogers. Anyone they get in return for him won’t make a difference for their offense. Sell Lopez for some real help and hope Rogers bounces back
Henry Silvestre
Keep the Pitching add Abreu and Nimmo and Marlins would contend..
slider32
If the Marlins are looking to get upgrades in their position players, they will need to give up Lopez. Rogers isn’t going to get a top line position player
formerlyz
As a Marlins fan, I expect a classic Marlins decision spree coming, and this are things that would fall right in line with that. Clown show
¡Killer Klowns From Outer Space!
Agreed. Can’t wait. I’m always stoked for the Off-season to say “huh”. Every year. Even when we traded Miggy I said “huh”. Even when I was 12 and loved to Vegas in 1997 from South Florida, when the 1998 fire sale happened I said. “Huh”? Although it netted us a championship in ‘03. It’s been downhill for 19+ years.
cwalla24
If I’m Ben Cherington I think I’d pull the trigger if Miami offered me a package of Rogers and Eury Perez for Bryan Reynolds. Neither is a guarantee, but can certainly dream on the upside of it working out
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Too big a risk of Eury and TJ. Pirates should trade Bryan Reynolds to Dodgers for multiple top 100 prospects, say Vargas, Miller, Pepiot, Stone and Grove.
Habeto
Though Pablo is the more logical trade chip, I would just trade whoever brings you more value from him, Rogers or Garrett.
I think this is the 3rd or 4th article about Marlins trading SP. Arizona, Baltimore, Dodgers and Cards are excellent trade partners.
Kim Ng, make it happen.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
I agree with you, either Rogers or Garrett, to Diamondbacks, for either Thomas or McCarthy.
formerlyz
Lol at the idea of the Marlins getting value in a trade
cgallant
Red Sox look like an obvious trade partner with Bobby Dalbec being available who can play first and third.
¡Killer Klowns From Outer Space!
So the reds trade Castillo for Noveli and Arroyo + 2 prospects and the Marlins get Dalbec for Lopez? Lol. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Marlins did do something like that. Classic Marlins trade.
formerlyz
Exactly…as you well know, the Marlins always get way less back in deals, and give up way too much in deals. Its never different
cgallant
Bobby Dalbec for Trevor Rogers seems like a reasonable trade. Fits needs on both teams. Both players coming off down seasons.
Habeto
Bobby Dalbec = A worse version of Miguel Andújar. You think he is good, but he isn’t. Why would the Fish want him on the first place? Dalbec strikes out way too much, doesn’t get on base often and plays barely OK defense. Brian Anderson at 3B and Garrett Cooper at 1B are both better than Dalbec.
So no, thanks… Although the Red Sox are also a fitting trade partner, but for the likes of Casas, Duran or Hernández (Catcher).
You, assuming you are a Red Sox fan, won’t trade Tristón Casas, right?
JoeBrady
As a RS fan:
If we got Rogers for Dalbec, I would personally drive Dalbec down and Rogers back up.
IRT Casas, no. but I’d be open to something bigger. We do match well.
IRT Duran & Hernandez, yes. It seems light for a player of Rogers potential, but not terribly far off. I’d be okay with Rogers for Dalbec, Duran & Hernandez (albeit with a whole lot of MRIs).
Habeto
Seems reasonable, but yet again, why would the Marlins want to have Dalbec? You guys can keep him.
Duran, Hernández + a top prospect like Rafaela can make sense. It might look a bit too much from the Sox side, but Duran has a .623 OPS in more than 311 ABs, and both Hernández and Rafaela haven’t even debuted in the majors, so they are not solving any problems for the Marlins.
You can argue that Rogers is not that good, but after the injury he suffered in July, he came back strong and 4 of his last 5 appearances were quality starts. Trevor has already a high floor and his potential is tremendous.
¡Killer Klowns From Outer Space!
Really?
Habeto
Yeah, really.
Bobby Mongan
I am betting that Santander and another could be traded for with the O’s
Ronk325
I wouldn’t be opposed to the Yankees targeting Rogers. The Marlins seemed to have interest in Gleyber at the trade deadline so something could be centered around those two