Shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the top free agent available and he is unsurprisingly drawing plenty of interest. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that eight teams are interested in his services, but the Twins are expected to “go hard” in their attempts to retain him.
Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins, who are already known to be making a concerted effort to keep Correa in Minnesota. It was reported earlier this week that they have made multiple offers to him, with varying lengths between six and ten years, presumably with higher salaries on the shorter deals and lower salaries on the longer deals. In addition to the Twins, Correa has already been publicly linked in some way to the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs. Since Heyman says eight teams are involved, it appears there are four “mystery teams” at the table.
As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess, though there would be some logical fits. Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said the club is planning to pursue shortstops to play second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. The Phillies are known to be looking for a shortstop this winter. The Braves will need to replace Dansby Swanson if they can’t re-sign him but they might not have the financial ability to go after Correa. The Orioles have been speculated as a fit given that general manager Mike Elias was working for the Astros when Correa was drafted and developed, though they don’t have a track record that would suggest they’d give out the type of contract it would require to land him.
One surprising team that could be in the mix is the Padres. Heyman doesn’t directly connect the club to Correa but he does say they are considering the free agent shortstops. The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shouldn’t really be counted out on anyone, but it’s still unexpected to see the club connected to this market. The Friars got by without Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022, who missed the first half of the season due to a wrist injury and the second half due to a suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.
In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim stepped up and had an excellent season. He hit .251/.325/.383 for a wRC+ of 105 while stealing 12 bases and providing excellent defense. All of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him positive grades, allowing him to produce 3.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. With Tatis set to return in 2023 once he serves the final 20 games of his suspension, it would seem the position is already crowded enough as it is. However, Heyman’s report indicates the club is open to the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield, something he’s dabbled with in the past, while bumping Kim into a utility role.
It had been previously reported that the club was considering an alignment of Kim at short, Tatis at second and Jake Cronenworth at first. It seems that this new plan would be somewhat similar but with Tatis going to the outfield, perhaps replacing Jurickson Profar, who is now a free agent, in left. Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.
Payroll might be a factor for the Friars, as Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $210MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM, just under the first CBT threshold of $233MM. The club has nudged over the CBT line in the past two years, but signing a marquee shortstop would surely mean blowing past the first threshold and flirting with the second, which is $253MM. As a third-time payor, the Padres are already facing a 50% tax on all spending over the first the first threshold plus a 12% surcharge on spending over the second. That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate. The club has continually surprised onlookers with their aggression in recent seasons, meaning it shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But it would be quite a noteworthy escalation, especially with the club connected to other big free agents like José Abreu and Kodai Senga.
As for the Giants, who have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time, they will have to answer the Brandon Crawford question if they succeed in signing a new shortstop. He’s been with the club since being drafted back in 2008 and has been a mainstay at shortstop for them since 2011. He turns 36 in January, has one year remaining on his extension and is coming off a down year in 2022. He made multiple trips to the injured list and posted a batting line of .231/.308/.344, wRC+ of 87. DRS and UZR were down on his work in the field, but he did earn 7 OAA.
As to how the club would handle a new shortstop with Crawford on the roster, it seems that it would depend who the shortstop is. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Crawford would move to third base if they signed Correa, but Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would be installed at second base. That’s likely a reflection of the fact that Turner and Swanson have lesser throwing arms than the other two. According to the Statcast arm strength leaderboard among shortstops, Swanson comes 48th out of 50 while Turner is 26th. Crawford is a bit higher at 19 while Correa is at #6. Correa’s excellent arm strength arguably makes him a fit for third base, but his overall defense is superior to Crawford’s at this stage of their careers. Regardless of how sensible the arguments may be, it’s at least a bit surprising that the Giants are apparently willing to supplant Crawford at shortstop under the right conditions.
Sure seems like the Padres are preparing to let Machado or Soto eventually walk, as they can’t possibly keep Machado/Tatis/Xander/Soto in a few years and still have enough cash to spend on other areas.
Next season will be more telling on the plan for Soto. If he struggles offensively in that ballpark (which he sort of has, hitting only 3 HR’s at Petco after the trade) they may be ok with letting him leave rather than pay an exorbitant amount to keep. Flip side is if he hits and Machado has another good year and opts out they can put the Machado money towards a new deal for Soto. But yeah, probably no way they have all 4 beyond next season
If Soto doesn’t hit next year, he will be quite affordable. No one is going to pay him for what he might do again. Just ask Bellinger.
Soto in his ‘down year’ had an OBP of .400. Dude is getting 400M on his longterm deal if he has a career average year next year. Comparing him to Bellinger is just wrong.
Brixton that’s because he walks so much but the problem is that his team needs him to drive in baserunners not walk with guys on. Yeah he has a great eye but maybe use it to hit more productively. I’m not a big Soto fan I feel like a guy with his talent should be more productive at the plate as far as bringing in runs. It is baseball remember and you need to out score the opposing team. When your three or four hitter walks in a big spot it can hurt depending on the situation. Plus his glove isn’t anything to write home about.
Yes, Soto has walked a ton up to now. However, a big part of the reason he walks so much is with the Nats three was little reason to pitch to him with there weak lineup.
Well, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds were 3-4 hitters that walked a ton, and it didn’t seem to hold them back from knocking in a ton of runs.
This is wrong. He walked a lot when the Nats were contenders and when they won a world series. He walked a lot when he got to San Diego and they were a contender with a dangerous middle of the order. It’s almost like he walks a lot regardless of what the team around him is…
Votto is likely a better comp than those guys at this point
He’s great at hitting balls where he wants them. Walking means the pitcher threw 4 balls. Soto can’t help that. Machado or any slugger #4 will help his walks more than expanding the zone to get a few more hits. K’s would go up too turning him league average.
rod – My team had a player just like that, his name was JD Drew.
Talented guy, but he never swung at hittable pitches if they were outside the strike zone. Which is fine if baserunners are needed, but otherwise he was needed to drive in runs … and he didn’t.
That’s my take as well. A hitter has no options if the opposing pitcher doesn’t want to pitch to him.
Lonnie – I don’t think you realize how many of the biggest hits in baseball history were off pitches that were outside the strike zone.
Having your best hitter walk in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and a man on second or third is like giving your opponent an Intentional Walk … why on earth would you do that?
Joe – Good thing you aren’t the hitting instructor for my Boston Red Sox.
Does Machado have an opt out? I doubt he’ll get a bigger contract if he does and he opts out.
He might not opt out for money, but he could if he thought he had a better chance of winning elsewhere
He is staying in San Diego. He has already said he wants a statue next to Tony Gynn. He may ask for more money on the contract for more years and we can get his aav lower.
Machado, like almost every other player in baseball, will opt out if he can get more money, damn a statue.
Yes he can opt out following the 2023 season
Machado is owed 5/150 after 2023. If he has another season that puts him in the MVP hunt in 2023, then he would almost be guaranteed to be able to get a larger contract than $150 million. 6/200 to 7/235 would be very realistic.
Machado will command $35 million AAV on a 6+ year deal if he puts up another season like 2022.
But I don’t think he wants to leave San Diego. Somewhere I read that he had said he wants a statue next to Tony Gwynn. That would require sticking around.
Padres could probably add 3 years to his deal and bring down the AAV so his CBT hit is lower and keep him a Padre for the rest of his career.
Yeah all he cares about is that statue, lol.
Hank – I’m shaking my head too.
Why do people repeat an off-the-cuff statement and take it as gospel?
Players will say what their team’s fans want to here, but they will do what their financial adviser tells them to do.
SD is starting to sound like a kid in a candy shop, “I want this”,” I want that”, gimme, gimme, gimme.
Slow the wheels down, absorb what you have & learn how to utilize it.
2022 had incredible SD talent & where did it go?
Stop tryng to buy every name on the market. Learn to use the talent you have.
Are you going to cry?
Heyman is starting to sound like a guy that wants you to click on his article by saying outlandish things.
While the Padres undoubtedly will go over the $233 million CBT threshold, there is little chance that they want to go over the 2nd level at $253 million.
The Padres could still go after some big name players, but its doubtful its a shortstop. They have a 5 WAR shortstop in Kim and Tatis coming back in late April. They also have about $230 million on the books for CBT purposes.
Its far more likely that they sign or trade for a starting pitcher, a LF with pop, and a 1B/DH and come to camp ready to compete.
Preller is in everyone’s head
If the Padres (or any team) are going to exceed the luxury tax threshold at all they might as well exceed it by $39,999,999, or the most they can exceed it by without having their top draft pick lowered 10 spots. No one cares if ownership has to pay more money in overages anyway.
Curly;
Starting?
Preller does way to much cocaine to slow wheels down
Maybe but everyone keeps underestimating how much seidler is willing to spend. He has already gone record saying giving a 500m contract to Soto isn’t something he would be willing to do. I’m summarizing a bit but that was what was taken from it.
They have been connected to almost every big free agent out there. So they don’t seem all that worried about the tax hit.
They have already said they are going to explore and extension for Soto and darvish. I have heard then linked to rodon and 3 of the 4 top shortstops. Add them to abreu and senga, I’d fully expect them to blow passed 1st tax line and perhaps the 2nd as well.
Seidler really wants to bring the 1st major championship to San Diego. When you owner makes statements like…you can’t take it with you (money), and I kind of like spending money. Nothing can be ruled out. Those that keep saying they can’t (afford) have been wrong the last few years.
Simm;
Padres are a ticking time bomb.
They’re trying to do what the Yankees and Red Sox tried to do (on far less revenue) and look at them now.
@Samuel, Preller is in Heyman’s head, trickle down to u.They have zero interest in a SS
Maybe but if they can win a championship before the bomb goes off then it’s a win
We cant control Russian nuke aspirations
The Padres won a game in the NLCS. How’d the Red Sox and Carpetbaggers do?
Brew’88;
Preller and Seidler have created a profile of themselves that makes for juicy rumors by people in eh media that get paid by the number of clicks.
Simm;
Good point!
Preller’s only been there 9 years and they already got to the NL Championship game last year!
At least he feels for the soldiers mothers….
@Samuel. A lot of teams make splashy moves. My wife and kids grew up Pads fans and recall the days of $35mil payrolls/ last place finishes well. Seidler’s willingness to invest is like veritable Santa Claus coming to town. As an outsider looking in I get the disdain, and have had much skepticism it will last, but I see first hand what it has meant for these fans and players. Seidler isn’t going away, they will lose players and simply add equal ones over and over again. a lot of responsibility on Preller but he doesn’t have to worry about support from above.
I wish my team’s ownership tried as hard as Pads
You had me till the carpet baggers thing, the Padres fan calling another team carpet baggers, thanks I needed that laugh
I just can’t see the Twins landing Correa on a long term contract. How would he be sure ownership would be committed to winning every year by funding the necessary pieces to supplement him??? It would be like Trout in Anaheim.
As a Boras client, I’m guessing it’s all about the money, not championships. Correa already has a ring, albeit an astering, from 2017. He left a powerhouse Astros team to play for the last-place Twins, so maybe that says something about his priorities.
On the bright side Correa can afford a top tier massage therapist
I still think Correa would prefer a chance at a legitimate World Series, especially after watching the team he just left win one.
If that’s his preference, signing with a last-place team seems like an odd way to pursue it.
Don’t Bogaerts that joint my friend…
apparently win now is not that important to Correa or he wouldn’t have left the best team in bb for a team that is not a contender.
Left? No. Crane made a 6 year offer for about what Correa made for 3 in Minnesota. That is 100% on Crane.
You keep saying, “last place team” like it is some kind of innate default of the Minnesota Twins. They had a down year. They are a good team. Correa recognized that and signed with them. Sheesh.
I didn’t say they were a bad team. I said he signed with a last-place team, which they were the year before he signed with them. He left a team that finished with the second-best record in the AL. So, if rings were his priority, it would seem an odd choice.
The Dior shopping metaphor had a very transactional vibe to it. No secrets with Carlos when it’s time to get paid.
The irony of these two things originating from Heyman:
“eight teams are interested in his services”
“Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins”
7 mystery teams! You go Johnny H!
Yeah, it’s tough to see. He should land at least 8 years and possibly 10 with an AAV north of 30m. I believe Donaldson had the team’s record at 4/100. They would be blowing past that, possibly tripling it (or more). I suppose they have space, but they have so many question marks, I’m not sure this really a team that should be splurging.
I’m a Padre fan and this confuses me. Outside of driving up FA SS prices I don’t know why they would be interested. I have as much fun as anyone spending Siedler’s money in my head, but reality give you limits.
Would I love putting Bogearts in the middle of the lineup? Sure, who wouldn’t, but this isn’t MLB the show, so I wouldn’t put much in the rumor.
Now watch them do it
James – Moving Tatis to the outfield would help him stay healthy, for that reason I can see them signing Xander.
Of course that means they paid Tatis elite SS money through 2034 for nothing, but hey that’s what happens when you make foolish 14-year decisions.
Fever Pitch Guy says “Of course that means they paid Tatis elite SS money through 2034 for nothing, ”
Cause who would want a 23 year old Left Fielder with a .950 OPS,40 Hr’s and 25 steals every year?
And wrist, shoulder, hamstring and back injuries costing him 252 days since 2019, and then a juicing conviction.
Depending on how much juicing they do, athletes who use can weaken connective tissue, leading to chronic injuries.
Who’d want him and that contract? Not me.
You don’t think any teams would be interested in Tatis with his existing contract? Seriously? If he was a free agent right now where would you rank him among Turner, Correa, Xander, and the other kid? I forget his name right now.
Give me a break….he’s not Barroid Bonds.
He used a steroidal cream to try to heal faster to get back on the field.
Stupid….yes,but don’t confuse him with true steroid users who use to bulk up and he wasn’t using while playing.
He misses a lot of time due to his “style” of play…he’ll settle down.
Plus his numbers even while missing time warrant his contract.
He’s due to make approx $6 mil in 23’
Swanson is the name you’re forgetting.
Given Tatis’s past, I’d take any one of them over him. Since his rookie year, all four of them have a higher fWAR since he’s missed so much time. He’s already scheduled to miss another month to serve out his juicing penalty. But I don’t doubt that some team would ignore the red flags and take on the 4th-largest contract in baseball. I wouldn’t want it to be my team though.
“Stupid….yes,but don’t confuse him with true steroid users who use to bulk up and he wasn’t using while playing.”
Steroids are sold over the counter in the DR. But you believe what you want to believe, mrpadre.
But Ployed, think about it, with how naturally gifted and talented Tatis is plus his youth…I don’t see him “juicing” in the old fashioned 1990’s sense of bulking up. He doesn’t need any magic elixirs to improve his batting. I find it reasonable to believe it was a very minimal PED use just to speed up his recovery time and get back to the team ASAP.
Iggy, he hit 42 bombs in 2021, fifth in the league, and his HR/FB% was second in the league. You don’t have to be a behemoth to hit for power, and the juice enhances the fast-twitch muscles, allowing a batter to wait longer on pitches, see them better, and still get around on them to make solid contact.
mrpadre192 hours ago
Give me a break….he’s not Barroid Bonds.
He used a steroidal cream to try to heal faster to get back on the field.
===================================
Just so you know, every player in the PEDs history has had a rationale for using PEDs. Besides, I thought Tatis’ excuse was that he had ringworm or something?
There is a reason you are commenting on a board and not managing a FO. Tatis is a generational talent and not one GM in baseball would think twice about trading for him today if he was available.
#1 with a bullet.
Lol
minimal PED use just to speed up his recovery time and get back to the team ASAP.
================================
So very, very altruistic on Tatis’ part. But the excuse “I only did it to help my team” was already used by Andy Pettitte.
Hey man made up the SS rumor with Pads just to incite clowns to rip on Tatis, it worked.
Want to know how good Tatis is?
From 2019 to 2021 he played in 273 games. He put up 13.6 WAR
From 2019 to 2021 Turner’s numbers were 329 games and 13.3 WAR
56 games less and a higher WAR.
WAR is considered a counting stat because the more you play, the higher your possible WAR.
None of the SS on the market are close to as good as Tatis. Its not even close.
Outfielders get paid too and Tatis would not be in the top 5 in AAV (even further down the list after Judge signs). His .965 OPS, 160 OPS+, and 40 HR puts him right there with the very best.
Do you want to know the ONE outfielder that hit better or put up a higher WAR than Tatis from 2019-2021? Juan Soto.
Tatis will miss 20 games. Not a month. 20 games. He will still put up a higher WAR than ANY of those SS. And he will likely do that in the OF.
You never say who your team is, but I would be willing to go ask the GM if he would take on Tatis contract. I am 100% sure the answer will be an emphatic yes.
I imagine the reasons are pretty much the same ones that account for your commenting on a board and not managing a front office, no?
Fink a boo boo, can I see a source or a photograph or some proof on the type of steroids that Tatis got “over the counter” in the Dominican Republic? Oh, wait, you’re just speculating on a hypothesis.
I make comments backed by facts and use the same time frames and stats the FO do. That is the difference.
Which is why you aren’t even a pretend GM on Sim City.
“Tatis Jr. has been suspended for 80 games for violating the league’s PED policy. In addition to missing the remainder of the 2022 MLB Season, Tatis Jr. will also miss 32 games of the 2023 MLB Season.” – Spotrac
I rounded it down to a month.
First, you don’t use the same stats the front offices do. Front offices have their own closely guarded proprietary analytics. A Cardinals employee (coincidentally named Correa) was sentenced to nearly four years in prison for hacking the Astros’ database and using stolen information to draft players.
Second, you’re posting here instead of running a ball club for the same reasons as everyone else here, among them, the fact that you’re unqualified.
“I make comments backed by facts”
Bruh that is a vile lie XD XD XD
Remember when you said Spencer Strider gets credited with 2 years of service time for 2022 and would have been a Super Two next year if he hadn’t signed that extension? Everyone saw that.
Oh Fink, you are wrong again. Will you accept that you are wrong or will you continue to believe you know more than everyone else? Due to the Padres playoff run, Tatis will only miss 20 games next year. Please admit you were wrong to recover your reputation.
rotoballer.com/player-news/fernando-tatis-jr-will-…
“Fink a boo boo” — cute.
If you want to put down your bot-bot to click on these articles, they might enlighten you:
npr.org/2009/02/26/101171968/steroid-shopping-in-t…
sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2022-…
@Fink
With each Padres playoff game counting as one game served on Fernando Tatis Jr.’s suspension, the Padres now have a tentative date for Tatis’ return. As the schedule currently lines up, Tatis would be eligible to return on April 20 at the start of a four-game series in Arizona (though that date is subject to change with any rainouts or other postponements).
I don’t have a reputation to recover, Dennis. And I’m certainly not posting here to create one. I have no illusions about being smarter than anybody. In fact, the act of saying one person is smarter than another seems to me a pretty hazardous one. In my experience, polymaths are a comparative rarity. People who preen themselves on their intellectual superiority probably just haven’t met the many people who are better than them at many things.
I relied on one source. You relied on another source. I fail to see what either choice says about our respective levels of intelligence, unless trusting a published source like Spotrac is, of itself, a stupid act.
Thanks for that, VegasatNights.
BTW, Iggy, I ought to clarify that I brought up the ‘roids in the discussion only because he’s already been busted and there’s sometimes a connection between juicing and recurring injuries to connective tissue. I mentioned the home runs to explain that a guy doesn’t have to “look the part” to hit for power. But I should’ve hastened to add that the fact that there’s smoke in his case doesn’t mean there’s fire. If he resumes hitting bombs, I won’t assume it’s because he’s juicing. He’s paying his penalty and in the future is entitled to the same supposition of innocence as any other player, no more, no less.
I didn’t presume any ill intent on your behalf Ployed, I know you don’t run that way. And I have no bone in the Tatis controversies, I just felt maybe he deserved a little benefit of the doubt here because he is an astounding talent, without any overt need to otherwise juice. Yeah he may have some youthful faulty judgement episodes, but who doesn’t at 22/23 years old. Peace out
That’s what’s so difficult to take sometimes, when a guy has all the talent in the world — like A-Rod — and ruins his reputation needlessly. But you’re absolutely right, Iggy: Tatis is super-talented.
@fink, lol, I knew you wouldn’t admit you were wrong. You can talk about sources all you want and you can even blame yours, but you were factually wrong. Yes, there is ‘the truth’, not ‘your truth based on your source’. You should just admit you were wrong, but maybe you’re incapable of doing so.
Dennis, I thanked VegasatNights for correcting me. He simply explained why the information currently posted on Spotrac is wrong, without attacking me for having posted it, as you are, for whatever reason. Obviously it’s important to you to do so. But the truth is, I’ve admitted mistakes often on these boards, so maybe you’re projecting. It happens.
MrPadre – Every year? Did you really write “every year”?
BAHAHAHAHAHA!
Um, dude … he had just 143 career games under his belt when he signed that ridiculous contract.
I have no issue with teams handing out cradle-to-grave contracts, but only after the player has proven over the course of AT LEAST 450 games that they are the real deal.
Pads Fans – Assuming the acquiring GM would have to take on the entirety of his contract, I’d say only about 3 GM’s max would not think twice about it.
Or do you actually think the reason 25 teams a year don’t even try to sign top free agents like Cole or Judge is because they don’t want good players on their team?
Are you really that oblivious to the fact that very few teams have the ability to take on a contract like that?
You’re right…his 162 game average is actually higher than this.
Yes…I get it…he hasn’t played 162.
But you can’t say he won’t going forward.
mrpadre – I’m saying what most everyone else has already said, it was premature to give out that kind of contract. Way too much risk involved.
If you look at all the prior mega-contracts, they were given to established players who had at least 450 games under their belt.
I’m not sure moving him off of SS would be a benefit to his health. He’s an all-out type of player, and they would be moving him closer to walls.
fivepoundbass;
He’s an undisciplined low-baseball-IQ player that every team in MLB would be weary of were he a free agent – but with that contract I don’t think anyone will touch him.
but you never know how all of his injuries will affect his game. he’s young, which should be in his favor quicker. but it will be interesting so see how the injuries and a possible switch to. the OF will affect his game.
How fast the mighty Tatis has fallen. He’s gone from franchise Icon to a replacement for Jurickson Profar in LF.
Still better than any player on your favorite team.
How well the scaphoid heals would be my concern. Other than that, I’m looking forward to seeing what type of Fernando appears. Rightly or wrongly, the guy has taken some hits in terms of public perception. Rough 12 months or so. I want to see who fronts up.
Tatis is making $24 million AAV on his deal. That is not elite SS money. For a guy that put up 13.6 WAR before he turned 23, its extremely reasonable.
Will go down in history as one of the best contacts ever
That’s true, Pads Fans, but the annual salary increases as he ages, so that the AAV from his age-30 season through his age-35 season is $36,714,285. Any prospective trade partner is going to consider that carefully. If he were traded this offseason, his new team would pay an AAV of $27,599,059.58 over the life of the contract if my math is correct. That’s more than Freddie Freeman’s AAV according to Spotrac. That’d put him in the top 10 position player AAVs listed on Spotrac right now.
Pads Fans – Please don’t tell me you aren’t aware of the fact that his contract bought out 4 years of team control.
Provide the AAV from 2025-2034 and then tell me that’s not elite SS money.
As a padre fan, I can’t put anything past Preller but signing another SS doesn’t make any sense barring a big trade. Maybe if they trade Kim for a starting pitcher this might have some legs. Still would be strange considering Boagerts is the one they are apparently interested in as Tatis & Kim are both better defenders and Manny obv is going nowhere.
Long term they also have Merrill as a SS option, not likely they sign a FA SS, this is just more media hypage. As the writer of this article says “As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess….” Preller is in everone’s head I guess
Then he goes a bit far with speculation on Pads
In a recent article, Jon Heyman provided no new information and made veiled references to things which may or may not be factual.
it seems that every mlbtr post is about mere speculation. it’s understandable given that none of the big names have signed yet. as long as their guesses are plausible and backed by people who are reliable, I have no problem with it.
In reality, the Twinkies will HARDLY go after Correa.
Then plead the “We tried but lost out to one of the Big Market teams”..
And that might be the smartest thing for them to do.
Agreed FP
As a Twins fan, do you think Royce Lewis is still part of the long term plan at SS?
No. Two ACL surgeries on the same knee = done as a shortstop.
The Twins have been reported to have offered Correa a 6 year deal at a higher AAV than he made in 2022 and a 10 year deal at over $300 million. Not sure what your definition is, but I would say that is “going hard”.
Latest updates on possibly the worst off season ever that isn’t locked out, literally digging for scraps to post about.
Huh? This offseason has played out like a typical pre-COVID offseason. Usually there aren’t any big trades / signings until the winter meetings, which are usually in early December.
The SS market will not move until mid-to-late January.
I’ll bet you a turkey sandwich, that 3 0f the Big 4 will be signed before the end of December. (Maybe even all 4 – but I won’t risk my sandwich on that.)
Correa and Bogaerts are Boras guys. No way he’ll be done negotiating before January.
Boras has tended to drag out negotiations, Braveslifer, but not always lately. The Rangers signed Seager at the end of November last year. and signed Semien soon after on December 1st. Both are Boras clients.
He has two of the four “top” SS’s this year.
The man’s a moneymaker.
I would see Correa as a great fit for the Orioles based on his clubhouse leadership. They have the young talent and it seems like the right time to hire a veteran to lead them. He’s been pretty healthy the last 2 seasons so hopefully he’s finally jumped that hurdle.
Yeah that’s what I’ve been thinking too. But it doesn’t appear that Elias is going for it.
Yes doesn’t seem to be much buzz locally here in Baltimore about Correa and/or need to address SS position. A lot of talk about SP upgrade(s) and a LH hitting need.
I hope the Orioles get him. I’m a wsox fan so I need a team to cheer for.
Most of Correa’s home runs go out of left field. Unless the birdies are planning on moving in or lowering the Great Wall of Baltimore, you can probably expect a decline in his long ball output.
Mateo lags offensively, but he’s a stellar defensive shortstop if the metrics tell us anything meaningful. Maybe it’d be smarter, if the O’s are going to invest in a big free-agent contract, to go after a pitcher like Rodon. They’d save money and Rodon might appreciate that wall.
Until you have 3 years of data, the defensive metrics tell you little. If you are using UZR, they tell you nothing.
Nope, using OAA in conjunction with all the other stats. And since Mateo played only 120 innings at shortstop in 2021 and 1,257.1 innings at shortstop in 2022, this year’s stats would seem to be the most valid measure of his ability that we have. Only three shortstops were credited with more OAA than Mateo this year.
BTW, the three-year caveat applied to defensive metrics might give the persons proposing it a comforting sense of security in their analyses, but it appears to incorporate more than one logical fallacy.
It ignores the reality that multiple factors can impact a player’s performance in the field, including injuries that many players play through; offensive downturns that cause some players to pressurize themselves into mistakes in the field as well; changes in personnel both among their fielding partners and their coaches; learning curves and the incorporation of knowledge, etc.
Unless these things are factored in and their extent quantified (which would seem to be somewhere between extremely difficult and impossible), combining three years’ worth of metrics might be as likely to distort the picture of a player’s ability as to clarify it.
I’m not just talking about the metrics (which did favor Mateo last year FWIW), I watched Mateo all season and he played some of the best SS defense I have ever seen in my 25+ years of watching baseball, which has included some pretty great defensive SS’s like Cal Ripken, Mike Bordick, and JJ Hardy playing for the team I watch. His speed allows him to do crazy stuff out there, I can’t tell you how many times I saw him take away what looked like an absolutely surefire base hit coming off the bat. Plus, with the shift getting nerfed hard next year, he will be even more valuable defensively.
So if I had to choose between Mateo and Correa based purely on defense, without any regard at all for cost or offense, I’m taking Mateo in the post-shift world.
Yes. Talk to the folks at StatCast. I have. They say that StatCast is no different than DRS in terms of the amount of data needed to get an accurate prediction of defensive performance.
They talk in terms of chances instead of games or innings played, but it comes out to about the average chances for each position in 400 games.
So trying to say that Mateo is a top shortstop defensively is just ludicrous. He had a short run where the bounces went his way. Come back after the 2024 season and lets see what happened leading up to 400 games played.
With his bat and age, I am highly doubtful that Mateo gets 400 games played from 2022-2024.
The large data set caveat is BECAUSE multiple factors can impact a player’s performance.
That you don’t understand that says all I need to know. It says clearly that you don’t understand stats or baseball performance at all.
Suuuuuuuuuure you’ve talked to the folks at StatCast 😉
Are they the same ones who told you that players who finish in the top 2 for ROY get credited with a full extra year of service time and that Luis Campusano’s charges were reduced to a misdemeanor in January 2021 and that the Padres had to send Miguel Diaz back to the Brewers after 2017?
You seem to have misunderstood what I was getting at. The metrics are simply one thing that favors Mateo, my 3 decades of watching large amounts of baseball every summer and roughly a decade playing the game when I was younger also tell me that, at the very least, Mateo is quite good defensively. The fact that the metrics back that assessment up is nice, but I don’t need them to tell me that, nor do I need them to tell me that having elite speed will be extremely beneficial when the ability to position yourself advantageously prior to each play is dramatically reduced next year.
DRS uses basis of 3600 innings played and OAA uses 1500 chances, not 3 seasons played.
If anyone has been using UZR recently, they are not paying attention to what is going on with the shift. The shift has increased from under 10% of plays to over 40%, (55% against LHB) in the last 2 decades. Fielders are not playing in their UZR zone at least 20% of the plays. How many times have we seen a 2B, SS, or even 3B playing in shallow RF against LHB? That made UZR so inaccurate that its value is nil.
Regardless of how many different metrics you use, one season is not enough to get an accurate picture of a players defense. Just too many variables. 1B glove, infield grass and watering, positioning, just plain luck, etc…
Correa and Mateo are a perfect example. In 2021 Mateo had a -1 DRS while Correa had a 20 DRS. In 2022 Mateo had a 14 DRS while had a 3 DRS. Which season is the accurate measure?
The truth is neither are. You need a larger set of data to even out the factors and luck.
While we can’t go back 3 full seasons with Mateo, which we would need to get an accurate picture, we can go back 1.5 which will give us a decent but slightly fuzzy picture.
Over the last 2 seasons Mateo has a 13 DRS at SS in 1377 innings and 664 chances. Over the last 2 seasons Correa has a 23 DRS at SS in 2418 innings and 1050 chances.
In OAA, Mateo had 9 OAA and Correa 8 OAA.
Combine those two metrics and a picture emerges that shows that Correa is as good or a little better than Mateo on defense over that short period.
If Mateo gets to play SS all of 2023, we will have a much more accurate picture of his defense. Its really too bad that his bat is so atrocious, He may not get to play at SS all season with Gunnar Henderson there pushing him. I know that Henderson is supposed to play 3B in Baltimore, but if Mateo continues to put up an OPS+ in the 80s, Henderson may get his shot at SS.
Eyes lie. Large data sets of stats do not. That is why you can see that Mateo was average at best last season and good this season from the data.
Here is what he did over the last 2 seasons.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_aver…
He ranked 12th of the 60 shortstops with 150 attempts, but his OAA total was 26.5% of that of Lindor. Decent, but not great.
In another year you will have a clear picture of his abilities if he is actually playing SS by then. With his bat that is not a certainty.
My, my. How did managers and FOs decide the worth of a player without these ridiculous metrics and analytics? When you watch a game you can see whether a player can hit, field or pitch without a mishmosh of letters. How on earth did FOs know that Cobb, Ruth, Mathewson etc. we’re any good without analytics?
Your reply tells me that you didn’t understand my comment, a point of which was that the causes of variance in a given player’s defensive metrics aren’t taken into account in a three-year sample — the larger sample simply relies on statistical probability to conclude that averaging the variance gives a clearer picture of a player’s defensive ability. That conclusion is logical, as far as it goes; but combining seasons can still result in a deceptive impression of a player’s ability on a year-to-year basis.
From 2017-2019, Mike Trout was taxed with -1 DRS and -1 OAA.
From 2020-2022, Trout was taxed with -13 DRS and credited with +4 OAA.
So which player is he?
You can sign a defensive whiz and he can suffer an injury or some other negative event that diminishes his fielding ability so that the player you hoped to get won’t be the one you got in a given year — and neither will he be the average of three years’ worth of previous stats.
DJ Lemahieu in 2021 reportedly played through a sports hernia.
In the three years from 2017-2019, he led all second basemen by a huge margin with 34 DRS and 38 OAA.
But in 2021, he was taxed with -2 DRS and credited with 0 OAA.
From 2020-2022, he’s taxed with -3 DRS and -1 OAA. Rather a large divergence from the 2017-2019 reading.
Your reply says you didn’t understand my point. Perhaps the fault is mine for not having expressed it intelligibly. I’ll try again.
Averaging a 3-year sample doesn’t account for the causes of variance from year to year, it merely accounts for the fact that variance occurred and, logically enough, statistical probability is derived from the average.
But on a year-to-year basis, an injury or other negative impacts can affect a player’s fielding ability so that in a given year, what the 3-year average suggested you’d see from him on the field won’t be what you will see.
From 2018-2020, DJ LeMahieu is credited with 20 DRS (4th rank) and 14 OAA (2nd rank) at second base.
In 2021 LeMahieu reportedly played through a sports hernia. He was taxed with -2 DRS and credited with 0 OAA at second base.
From 2020-2022, he’s taxed with -3 DRS and -1 OAA at second base.
What can either 3-year sample tell you about how good he’s likely to be in 2023?
That’ll probably depend on whether or not he has surgery on the fractured toe he suffered this year or how well it heals if he opts against surgery. Stuff happens.
I apologize for filling up the thread with two replies to the same question. I thought that in clicking on the wrong tab I’d inadvertently lost the first before saving it — but here it is, to my surprise.
I appreciate your analysis, outinleftfield, however, it raises some questions in my mind.
Does combining the two seasons really give you a clearer picture of who he is as a fielder?
Isn’t it common for a player to struggle in his first experience of fielding a position on the major league level?
Isn’t it therefore reasonable to suppose that the fuller sample from the following season, when he was more acclimated to the position, is a better picture of who he’s likely to be going forward, barring some negative events impacting his performance?
I wish I didn’t have to always specify to whom I’m replying in these threads or risk the wrong person assuming I’m replying to him.
Life is complex.
Would be a nice project for MLBTR Tech Support, if there is such a thing. I’ll send a Suport Request to the Help Desk, see what happens. Last week they lost my TPS reports, so we’ll see…
Stats or no stats, looks like the Orioles front office has bought in to Mateo. In the local media there is no, zilch, chatter about upgrading at SS. FO must think he will only be better defensively in 23. It’s his offense that needs work. If he struggles again next year, enter Joey O, then down the road J Holliday (sp?)
Stats aside, Mateo, Rutschman and Mullins all pass the eye candy test when watching them play in person. The game is played up the middle. The Orioles are 3/4 the way there. Last up the muddke piece to address defensively is 2b. Hope it’s Gunnar. Offensively, his swing reminds of a Chase Utley with power.
… bumperstickers will be issued
The Orioles have zero need to waste money on a bloated decade-long contract for Correa with Gunner Henderson, Jorge Mateo, and Joey Ortiz on hand as solid SS options for the next couple of years until 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday is ready. If they are going to make a large financial commitment to a free agent, it should be for high end starting pitching, which is an area that is lacking in the farm system after Grayson Rodriguez.
I would give you 100 thumbs up if I could, King Floch.
Thanks, buddy 🙂
The Correa-to-Baltimore speculation by various media outlets makes so little sense to me. We literally have 3 top 100 SS prospects, two of which are ready and the other of which was the first overall draft pick just last year. Why would we make the biggest free agent expenditure in franchise history to block them?
Completely agree with you, King Floch.
Because most “top” prospects don’t pan out and you’re talking about an elite proven ss at the mlb level. Those prospects would be trade bait
Gunnar Henderson put up a .259/.349/.440 batting line in 130+ PAs as the youngest player in MLB last year, he ain’t going anywhere (except maybe 3B), and Jorge Mateo is better defensively than Correa, especially now that the shift is pretty much gone thanks to his elite speed, so SS is already a position of strength for the Orioles without even factoring in Holliday or Ortiz.
The rotation, OTOH, is still very much a question mark, even with arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball, Grayson Rodriguez, likely to start the year with the big league club, so that $30-35 million that Correa will require would be much better spent on fortifying the starting pitching.
Correa is better than anyone on the orioles. Fact
Not saying the orioles will sign him but if they did he would become their best player
Adley says hello.
Yea because he’s better than Correa. Take your homer glasses off
Two. Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. Henderson is not the projected starter in 2023, that would be the light hitting Mateo, and Holliday will be back in Delmarva in low A ball next season.
Henderson has long been thought of to be a long term 3B, not shortstop.
Who would you rather have, a proven elite shortstop or a prospect that will probably have to move to 3B anyway?
Remember, its not your money and the team has about $150 million per season they can add to payroll and still not break $180 million.
So which do you want. A proven winner or a possibility?
Me? I use Mateo as a utility player, move Henderson to the less critical 3B, and sign the proven player at the most important defensive position. But then I want to see a winning team on the field.
Adley is better than Correa though. Objectively.
CC- 5.4 bWAR/4.4 fWAR in 136 games
AR- 5.2 bWAR/5.3 fWAR in 113 games
And that’s with Rutschman scuffling pretty badly for his first 2 or 3 weeks as he got acclimated to the big league.
Oh, and Adley’s even a faster runner than Correa despite being a catcher and Carlos being a SS.
Gunnar’s best position long-term will likely be 3B, especially with Holliday in the system, but he is a very solid SS in his own right presently and would be just fine as the everyday SS if Mateo were to be traded this offseason (or moved into a utility role). In fact, that would probably be my preference, with Ramon Urias at 3B and Jordan Westburg at 2B to start the year.
As for the “if money was no object” scenario, sure, why not? I’ll take Correa, and Judge, Verlander, and deGrom while we’re at it. Unfortunately though, cost does matter, and the starting pitching is an area of much greater concern than SS, and therefore a much better place to deploy the finite resources that Mike Elias has to work with.
Wrong. As usual.
Henderson is not a SS going forward. That is the entire point. If he was, he would not be losing playing time to Mateo, a guy that had an 81 OPS+.
You cannot predict defensive based on one season. Period. You need about 3 seasons of data. In the last 3 seasons Correa has been 25% better than Mateo in OAA and in DRS its not that close.
The Orioles rotation needs help. No doubt. But to say they don’t need a proven elite shortstop is just plain wrong.
Holliday has only a 20% chance of even being an average player in the majors. You act like its a done deal that he will go through the minors and 100% become a superstar. Its not. Not close.
Even if he tears up the minors, and he will be in Low A ball next season, there is no guarantee he will even make the majors as a starter.
Prospects are question marks. Any of the top FA shortstops this year are proven performers.
I doubt it. I know it is a very small sample size, but Rutschman is as good a rookie as I have ever seen. I didn’t see any weaknesses in him as a minor leaguer, and I seen none now as a pro.
As a RS fan, I loved getting Mayers in the draft, and I don’t think he is half the player that Rutschman is.
Small Sample Size Theatre.
5.4 is better than 5.2. (fWAR is useless for position players because it uses UZR for its defensive metric and it uses zones. When 55% of all LHB saw a shift, that means UZR can’t measure defensive performance accurately)
140 OPS+ is better than 128 OPS+
.834 is better than .806
So you are not being objective when you say Rutschman is better than Correa.
If Mateo is on the team come opening day next year, he will most likely be the everyday SS. If he isn’t on the team, and Elias stays out of the SS market and uses whatever extra payroll ownership is greenlighting for next year on actual needs, Gunnar will be the everyday SS and he will be perfectly fine in the role. It’s really that simple.
Signing Correa would be an utterly silly allocation of finite financial resources when much more pressing needs than SS exist and I am reasonably sure that he is smarter than that.
Of course If the Giants got Crawford to drop his no trade clause, they could always trade him along with a $ subsidy of his contract.
Would make more sense to go after Judge
If the Red Sox sign somebody other than Bogey, I expect it to go the way signing Edgar Renteria did, i.e. poorly.
Better plan would be (if theyre actually going to sign a premium SS which I dont think they ultimately will)
Move Tatis to OF
Sign 1 of Turner or Bogaerts to play SS
Sign Abreu to play 1B
Keep Cronenworth at 2B
If youre going to sign an expensive SS might as well committ to a plan to sign Abreu as well. Youre going to blow past tax stuff anyways.
Move kim to a super utility role where he plays 3B, SS, 2B, CF, OF. He’d probably be a decent CF platoon bat with Grisham if they’re thinking utility role.
Yeah making Kim a utility player make a lot of sense. He plays a very good 2b, ss and 3b. Hasn’t played the outfield but they were going to give him reps there last spring until the tatis news.
If they do sign a big shortstop and abreu. They can shift cronenworth over to 1st at times to give abreu days off. So Kim can still get 500 abs. Plus there will be injuries.
Tatis
Soto
Machado
Abreu
Bogart/turner/Correa
Cronenworth
Kim
Nola
Grisham
Probably still look at another outfielder. Some speculation they could move Grisham. Heard Grisham for Danny Jansen rumored around. If they did move Grisham then tatis slides into center. Then they may look at bringing back profar or a different lefty bat.
We shall see but I fully expect them to add another 4-5 players including another starter or 2.
7,8,9 are automatic outs in that batting order.
Kim was above average with the bat. NOT an automatic out. Have to agree about Nola and Grisham. Those are both areas the Padres could use an upgrade with the bat.
Kim was slightly above avg at the plateast year. Nola about the same for a catcher. Grisham was terrible but unless they trade him he will be playing center because of his defense. You’d be hard pressed to find a better starting 9.
Turner + abreu is probably another 50M in payroll, and they still wouldn’t have addressed the 4th starter. Let’s be real barring a big trade they’re not spending another 60+ M, which would actually be 90+ M with luxury tax penalties.
Pads fans, they won’t sign a top FA SS, this is merely an extreme rumor by Heyman, expanded by mlbtr. Fun
Why would you make an elite defensive SS whose bat doesn’t really play anywhere else a utility player? ESPECIALLY when Xander Bogaerts is not the greatest defender himself.
You wouldn’t, imo, unless you had no other weaknesses. It is the same as the discussion above with Mateo. My view of free agency hasn’t changed much in 30 years. You try to replace your worst player with the best FA you can find.
I don’t think that’s the case with BA and I certainly don’t think that’s the case with SD. I think SD needs a 1B, a #5 SP, and I wouldn’t make a serious wager on Hader. So I don’t know why they would look for a SS.
I think SD needs a #4 SP at a minimum.
Best plan of all is to trade Tatis Jr to the Angels for Rendon and Adell. We will even throw in Max Stassi for an extra bag of balls. /S
Jon Heyman? Boras’s stooge? I’d rather consult a Ouija board.
PKCasimir;
This is speculation based on speculation based on speculation…..
After 3 paragraphs I felt like I’d eaten too much fudge.
If Swanson is being considered as a second baseman, he should really just resign with the Braves.
I’m very impressed with Kim, great glove and I believe the bat might surprise you as he get’s more mlb AB’s. Seemed to be learning on the fly and absorbing. Lots of potential. Also he was in a tough situation , lots of pressure/eyes on him replacing the Worm (apologies to Dennis Rodman), handled it like a champ.
What’s scary is the writer for M.C Bengals blog, is hoping the Tigers sign Correa ! I’m praying the Baez contract is the wolf bane that keeps Detroit from going after him, or the others. He wants to get Correa an move Baez to second. Detroit only has one more year of Miguel, and he wants to put tens of million’s into short an second, that is insane.
You see him also touting to get Contreras too, oh my god. It was somewhere near the end of the season while watching the Tigers, the catcher threw out a guy stealing second. I thought yes we’ll miss Barnhart, but then I seen it was Hasse ! O.M.G I shouted, what an improvement over the start of the season Not only was Hasse hitting the long ball, but his catching was getting top notch. Hasse has earned the right to start, his stats are too close to Contreras to lock a catcher up before the rest of the team works better.
The only guy I would love to see would be Judge. If your Chris I and your going to open up the purse strings, get Judge. The best hitter in baseball, build a team around him. Judge is the one player tomorrow that could put the Tigers at the top of the Division next year, with the team near intact from last year, it would be Judge. Jump bid, 400 million for 10 years, and don’t look back again.
Getting Correa , or Contreras is just rinky dink nothing moves. Get the best Chris, your dad would’ve. Don’t trade the pitching, and get Judge an Abreu, for an additional 65 million a year, instant .500 + team next year, and could win the Central. Think big Chris I, and fill the stands again.
Signing Judge, an injury prone 30 yr old, to a 10 year,$400MM contract is rather ludicrous. The Tigers could use an OF, but really need a RH bat to replace Miggy. Until they know if last year was just an injury fluke, and if Greene and Torkelson will take the next step, short term contracts, likely via trade, is the way to move forward.
The only time Judge has missed on the IL in the past two years were the 12 days he was out with Covid in 2021. He played 151 games in the outfield this year. Only six outfielders played more, and he played 78 of those games in center field.
The only time Correa missed in 2021 was a COVID health and safety protocol IL and in 2022 it was once again COVID. and a couple of games missed while DTD for a finger injury.
But you keep saying Correa is an injury risk while Judge is not.
I’d encourage you to read the post below yours of 20 minutes ago, i.e., mine with a time stamp of 2 hours ago.
I’m not saying it’s unreasonable to be concerned about his previous injuries and his size. Those are legitimate concerns. Just saying, he’s been healthy enough lately that he’s probably still going to get a huge contract.
So has Correa but you continue to say that injuries are why he shouldn’t get a big contract.
I guess you missed these posts of mine yesterday:
‘Mindful of his size and his injury history, the Twins can’t possibly think he’ll stick at shortstop for 9-10 years. Of the 20 qualified shortstops in 2022 listed on the MLB site, only one, Nico Hoerner, played fewer games than Correa.
‘If I were mulling an enormous contract to him, I’d be thinking about what position he might have to move to in the future and if that position could be more economically filled.’
and
‘If he’s bad at moving to his left, and that’s what Statcast shows (only one shortstop this year, Rosario, had a worse negative rating on plays to his left), he might not be able to move to third base successfully.
‘People have tended to misinterpret the defensive spectrum, and there’s been a lot of corrective analysis in recent years. Just because a position ranks lower on the spectrum doesn’t mean a player can automatically shift to a lower position and excel. Players have known this for a long time:
“It’s much more difficult for a shortstop or second baseman to move to third than vice versa… At second and shortstop, you can position yourself after the ball is hit. You just don’t have time at third.” – Brooks Robinson
“I used to get hit in the cup at third, then I moved to shortstop, and I never got hit in the cup. Then I moved back to third and got hit in the cup again.” – Cal Ripken
and
‘Aging is one thing. Injuries, another.
‘A 6′ 4″ 220-lb. shortstop with repeated back injuries that caused him to miss 71 days isn’t the same as, say, a 6′ 1″ 185-lb. outfielder with no significant injury history. So, talking about the likelihood of his durability as if it were predetermined by an aging curve is nonsense. Athletes aren’t machines.
‘Don’t get me wrong. If the Yankees signed Correa, I’d be fine with that — provided that ownership didn’t refuse to keep funding the team on a level commensurate with their huge market if he got injured again and his contract turned into another in a series of bad ones.
‘But what the Yankees can afford is probably not the same as what the Twins can afford, and we’re talking about what Boras is trying to exact from the Twins, aren’t we?’
_____
The point of mentioning his injury history pertains to his position, shortstop, a very rangy position that involves a lot of hot grabs low to the ground, the kind of activity that might be hard on a back.
The second point is whether a smaller-market team can afford the risk of a long-term contract to a shortstop who might not stick at the position.
And if you want to compare the impact of injuries on Judge, in 2019 he suffered his longest IL episode of 62 days with an oblique injury. His fWAR was 4.3. In Carlos’s longest IL episode with a back injury, he missed 43 days in 2018. HIs fWAR was 3.4.
Then Carlos injured his back again in 2019, costing him 28 days. Judge never missed another day to an oblique injury. That’s not to say that oblique injuries can’t recur, but I think it’s common knowledge that back injuries are often recurrent, and the record shows that they have been in Carlos’s case. I hope he stays healthy for the rest of his career, but the risk is there.
Your cracking me up. Ludicrous would be signing Correa to big money, some say as much as 300 million. Buying the best is never a bad idea, and no one compares to Judge now or in the immediate future. The Pepsi porch crowd is praying the Tigers go get Judge. It would take a jump bid to get him, big money, but it’d be worth it.
Getting Judge, and Abrue would mean the Tiger’s are off to the races. The fans would love it, and Detroit has so many young pitcher’s they can afford to do it. The whole team is pretty cheap after Miguel an Schoop leaves. that’s 37 m off the books in 24. Getting the best hitter is never a bad idea, and it may only take 300 m to get Judge who knows ?
It would be a bold move to get Judge an Abreu, but it’d be worth it. The fans would flock to the stadium. It would make the team .500+ instantly, and in contention for the division. Little Caesars makes some of the best pizzas now, the old world an the calzone. Hope Chris I does it.
MrPrck, if you’re a Tigers fan of some vintage, you remember when the late Mr. Ilitch, a model owner IMO, spent out of his own pockets to get Prince Fielder.
freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2016/08/11/drew-…
I’ll never criticize Mr. I for loving his city and trying to bring his fans a championship. God bless him. But big contracts don’t always work out.
Right now the Yankees are saddled with a massive contract to Stanton that was assumed immediately after he won the NL MVP award. His repeated injuries as a Yankee have limited him to 448 games in five years and 8.5 fWAR.
I don’t fault Hal for approving the contract. Yankee fans, myself included, were mostly thrilled when the trade was announced. Who knew Giancarlo would spend so much time on the IL?
In retrospect, it was a lot of money to add to the books for a player they didn’t really need at the time. In the previous season they led the league in home runs and had several DH candidates already and a full contingent of outfielders. But it was primarily the injuries that devalued the trade. Luckily for the Yankees, they have the money to absorb bad contracts and still add to the roster, if they want to.
The Fielder deal wasn’t bad, but there was the big fight in 13, and who or how many got injured we don’t know, but D.D was able to move him for Kinsler an cash. The loss to Boston in 13 was shocking, and that hurt. Still Detroit’s had some great players, but the last few years have not been great.
Getting Judge an Abreu would put the Tigers in contention next year in the Central if that’s all they do. Those two would also start the transition from Miguel, and he’d have some real fun his last year. Avila paid for the E Rod, Baez mess up, so those will be 140 m after next year. Still they need bats, an Judge an Abreu are the best out there than can fit into Detroit right away.
If Stanton is a problem, it’s one I wish the Tigers had. Him an Baez make about the same, but Stanton’s production is far greater. N.Y is getting it’s money’s worth from Stanton, he’s not the problem on that team. Maybe if Detroit got Judge an Abreu this year, N.Y could trade Stanton to Detroit next season.
If you buy the best, whatever it is, your rarely disappointed at all.
The worst of Stanton’s contract is yet to be paid. They are not getting their money’s worth now, and it’ll only get worse.
Since he was acquired, Fangraphs puts the dollar value of his WAR at $68.4M. Since acquiring him, the Yankees have paid him $118.6M.
Dipoto has also stated in so many words that an 8-10 years deal(Cano 2.0) is not the Mariners way.
So why do article keep stating, hinting, , implying that the Mariners are a frontrunner, leading possibility?
I for 1 do not want the Mariners to go down the road of a Cano 2.0 Contract
A major trade for McNeil or Edman would suffice
They didn’t say the Mariners are a front runner. They were mentioned as “Mystery Team” get it?
Why? Correa is younger than Cano was when he signed the deal. Pretty significantly when you look at an 8+ year contract. Cano was very product for us as well. The production wasn’t the issue. Front load the contract and give yourself the ability to move it 5 years down the line should they feel the need to. McNeil and Edman aren’t even in the same stratosphere as Correa and quite frankly, Crawford wasn’t good outside of April. He was average AT BEST and horrible for long stretches. That’s not acceptable if we’re truly going to contend.
I was wondering, does Brandon Crawford get inducted into the Hall of Fame when his career is over?
Absolutely not
Two rings (made the roster right after the 2010 WS win), three All Stars, four gold gloves….he’ll be in the Giants Ring of Honor right next Mays, Bonds, Clark’s and all the rest. Not quite HOF….defense yes but not the bat.
No.
Giants Wall Of Fame? Yes.
The rumors I used to spread in high school were more factual
Did you graduate?
Did Henry Ford? Did Leo DiCaprio? Did JayZ? We all built our empires while you were being taught history.
No but the people who actually built those peoples’ empires did.
Once Judge makes his decision, all of the other dominoes will begin to fall…
Media market rankings of the four teams purported to be interested in Correa:
Los Angeles 2nd
Chicago 3rd
San Francisco/San Jose 6th
Minneapolis/St. Paul 14th
San Diego 27th
Someone explain to me why Chicago-based teams operate like they’re located in Des Moines or Fort Wayne, and teams like the Padres and even the Twins are able to sign top free agents? It doesn’t make sense. I’m mostly addressing this from the Cubs’ perspective, since the team has been a cash cow (3rd in revenues) since the early 2000s, and possibly longer.
I think the Cubs will get back to paying bigger contracts, but I don’t think they believe they are good enough yet.
Get back? When have they ever?
What makes u think the Pads are interested in a SS? Fact check
Doesn’t matter what I think about Pads signing a SS, read the article bud.
OK. So the article made you think they are interested. Now read the…”as for the mystery teams, we can only guess…” part of the article where pure fantasizing begins.
Media market doesn’t equal profit, and doesn’t measure greed
It doesn’t equal profit. Your second point merits thought. Neither the Cubs nor the White Sox spend enough money on quality players. If they did, they’d draw FAR more revenues than they do now.
*It does equal profit. You simply don’t understand basic economics of the game. Why do you think the Dodgers spent $285MM on their roster last year?
What’s the status of the sale of the Orioles as part of the Angelos family issues?
The national sports media repeatedly acting like the Orioles need a SS really shows just how clueless the national sports media truly is.
Gunnar Henderson- arguably the top prospect in baseball and an early favorite for 2023 ROY
Jorge Mateo- Fielding Bible’s 2022 AL SS winner
Joey Ortiz- top 100ish prospect with elite defense and an emerging bat
Jackson Holliday- 2022 first overall draft pick and consensus top 50 prospect
The Orioles need pitching, not a SS.
Yeah I’m not even an Oriole fan and know it’s way more likely they’ll go after TOR arms
Unlike SS, it’s an obvious area of need, and this year’s class of FA SP’s is pretty deep. The $30 million Correa will get in free agency could buy 2 solid SPs (or at least get you most of the way there) that would likely be better than any of the current in-house rotation candidates except maybe top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez, i.e Eovaldi and Taillon.
I guess it depends on if you want to win or not.
Henderson is projected to be a 3B long term. In fact, he is not even expected to be the Orioles shortstop in 2023.
Jorge Mateo is all glove, no bat and his only full season in the majors was at 27. He will be 28 in 2023.
Ortiz is not a top 100 prospect. Not close. He is not in the Orioles top 15 prospects, let alone top 100 overall.
Holliday will be in Delmarva again in 2023. About a 20% chance he will be even an average major league player, let alone a player like any of the top free agent shortstops
The Orioles need players that can help them win and any of the elite shortstops can help them do that now. They don’t have a proven impact player in thee infield at all. They also need starting pitching.
Gunnar’s projected future position isn’t terribly relevant presently. He is a good defensive SS atm and likely will continue to be one for at least several years to come since his speed has thus far remained intact despite him already having filled out quite a bit, which was the main reason some scouts projected him needing to make the move to 3B sooner rather than later when he was drafted. But he’s not only not outgrown SS, he has gotten better as he’s matured physically. If Mateo was not on the team, Gunnar would 100% be the OD SS in 2023. Correa will likely have to move off SS sometime during his 10 year contract anyway, and my guess is that there will be several years left on his deal when he does.
As for Ortiz, his stock is going up quickly but not everyone has taken notice of him yet. He was listed as an honorable mention on one of the end of year top 100 prospect lists I have seen and I expect him to make at least one or two pre-season 2023 lists. Some remain skeptical that his offensive breakout in 2022 was for real, but the underlying numbers like his barrel and whiff rates suggest that it was. His placement on MLB Pipeline’s list is arbitrary at best, his excellent glove alone gives him a much higher floor than Connor Norby and Darell Hernaiz (another SS), who are both ranked a couple of spots ahead of him and will need to hit pretty well to carve out any kind of sustained MLB career, especially Norby.
You keep arguing with him about this when the O’s FO has already said that Henderson will be a 3B. Why argue? Henderson has already been moved off shortstop for a guy that can’t hit his weight.
Ortiz is organizational filler. Nothing more. He didn’t rank any higher on the BA or BP lists and Law doesn’t like him as much as MLB.
No, they haven’t said that, but Mike Elias has spoken about how Gunnar’s positional flexibility between 2B/3B/SS gives him a ton of options for how to construct next year’s team. That doesn’t sound like firm declaration that “he’s a 3B” to me.
And lol at the organizational filler because Keith Law said so remark.
@websoulsurfer “Him” is you lol.
Baltimore Sun in mid-September. “We see him following the same career path as Machado and expect him to come back and win the 3B spot in camp.” He said something similar in late August on MASN and The Front Office Show on MLB Network Radio.
At the GM meetings on November 11th or 12th, he said that they were looking for Henderson to solidify his hold on 3B for the coming season I know I read that in a piece by Pete Abraham at the Globe, but I think that Rich Kubatko(SP?) had an interview with Elias, too.
Dan Connolly had a great Q&A on the Athletic just after the GM meetings and he said that the plan for Henderson going forward was to play 3B. That he might play SS out of necessity if Mateo was injured, but that was not the plan for him in the near term.
Elias doesn’t specifically rule out Henderson playing shortstop, he just made no mention of him playing shortstop in any of the pieces I read.
You may want to reread that comment you responded to. He said that Keith Law on the Athletic didn’t rank Ortiz as high as MLB did. Ortiz is ranked 16th on the Orioles list by MLB.
BTW, Law had Henderson 2nd only to the Angel’s O’Hoppe on his season ending prospect list. He listed Henderson as a 3B, too.
Obligatory “stop with the JP Crawford praise and just sign somebody better” comment. We’re in the right position to spend big. Go for it. Make JP move.
I wish teams would call out Boras on his “Mystery Team “ BS They let this guy get away with this crap.
I would love to see the Dodgers sign Correa. Just to see how Dodger fans react when a hated former Astro joins their club. It will be glorious.
Crawford playing the strong side of a 3rd base platoon would be best for him and the team. He needs more days off and he would provide higher production with regular rest. If it works Crawford could resign with SF on a year to year basis at a lower salary and finish his career with the Giants.
Given Crawford’s 2022 season this isn’t a surprise or a shock to anyone, even Brandon.
Looks like Heyman again doing the work of Correa’s agent, pretending as if the Twins actually have a shot to make Giants et al up their offers.
Not sure why, but I’ve had a hunch — based on nothing in particular — that Cashman might pull off a surprise and get Bogaerts.
Scouts have been saying for a long time that Volpe might end up at second base. They also say that Peraza has a strong arm, which might make him a third base candidate.
An infield of Rizzo, Volpe, Peraza and Bogaerts — I could live with that.
Agents* available.
Correa, at 6’4” and with a big arm, seems like a better fit at 3B. Might be a smart move for Correa to age into 3B now with the Giants.
Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.
Amidst countless other sentences that have nothing to do Xander Bogaerts and yet he’s in the headline?
“Amidst countless other sentences that have nothing to do Xander Bogaerts and yet he’s in the headline?”
whyhayzee;
I gave up after 3 paragraphs and skimmed the rest. There was nothing in the article that hasn’t been written for weeks now. Nothing of substance – only a rehash of rehashed rumors by the same people that put them out and then rehashed them.
Silly Season is getting sillier.
Why is it surprising the Giants are looking for a second shortstop? Given Crawford’s injury record last season it’s not surprising at all. They’re not looking to dump him in the street and they shouldn’t. He’s still a good addition to the club at SS or somewhere else.
While I wouldn’t put anything past Preller, SD & Bogaerts are one of the worst fits I can imagine. They already have two SSs I would start (at SS) ahead of Bogaerts. With Machado on the team, that would mean moving Bogaerts to 2nd and Cronenworth to 1st.
Pure BS, imo.
@Brady. Make that 3 SSs. Their #1 prospect, Merrill, is also a SS
Who will be a September call up in 2024 best case scenario.
Sure, but that factors into a FA signing
When has Preller ever concerned himself with 2 years from now? Or given a drafted and developed prospect an actual chance? The closest he’s come was with MacKenzie Gore and at the first sign of him struggling he dumped him.
Because Tatis is always hurt and yet to even come close to playing a full season, the Padres are smart to be in this market. They should also be in the market for a lead off hitter/center fielder who can hit. I know Grisham is a gold glover, but they need more offensively. Trading for Cedric Mullins or signing Brandon Nimmo would fill this void.
Um, no. Before 2022, Nimmo had never played more than 140 games and only had one season of more than 92 out of 7.
In 2023 he will be 30 so injuries will come more often during his next deal, not less.
Is Heyman ever right?
Heyman has become increasingly irrelevant. I wonder how far his clicks have to have fallen for him to stoop to obvious clickbait like this?
Padres should take a run at Judge.
Padres’ownership trying to buy a second-place trophy.
So Pads Fans, outinleftfield and websoulsurfer all appear to be the same guy with multiple accounts.
Anything is possible, I suppose I could be me, but I doubt it.
Bang for your buck I’ll take Xander. Correa isn’t that much better of a defender that I would want to pay him $10M – $15M more per year.
Typical Boras strategy….. exaggerate the number of teams interested in a his client… try to feed that bidding war with fake mystery teams… four of them this time… add to the logical four teams that would be interested in Correa.
I love this site
Padres: “That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate.”
—Which means in turn that if they sign a $28m AAV player they’ll pay effectively pay $45.36 million for him in 2023, have similar issues in the future, while also making it much more difficult to get under the cap in the future and reset their LT payments, and limiting future roster flexibility.
The Padres have great incentives NOT to sign one of the top FAs this offseason. I’d bet they don’t do so.