The Dodgers have not yet determined whether they’ll make a qualifying offer to Clayton Kershaw, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last night at the GM Meetings (Twitter thread via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Friedman emphasized that bringing Kershaw back “is a real priority” for the team, adding that “things just feel more right in the world when Kershaw is wearing a Dodgers uniform.” The team did not extend a qualifying offer to Kershaw last year, due largely out of respect for the veteran lefty, whom they didn’t want to force into a rushed decision.
Similar sentiments are at play in 2022, it seems, as Friedman again spoke Kershaw taking the time to talk with his wife to decide what’s best for their future. Common consensus last winter was that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers (as he eventually did) or sign with the Rangers, who play their home games a short drive from Kershaw’s Texas home, which would thus afford him more time with his wife and four young children.
It’s a familiar situation for the Dodgers, and if last year’s process is any indication, it could take some time for things to play out. A Kershaw return would be a boon for a rotation that’ll be missing Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery) for all of the 2023 season and could see Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart as free agents. At present, the only locks for the Dodgers’ 2023 rotation are Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.
To that end, it’s not a surprise that Friedman described starting pitching as a “very” high priority for the Dodgers this winter (Twitter thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Friedman also touched on the team’s shortstop situation, noting that even if Trea Turner signs elsewhere, the team feels confident in Gavin Lux’s ability to take over the shortstop role on an everyday basis. Of course, it’s hardly a surprise to see any baseball operations leader giving a vote of confidence to an in-house option, and such comments shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a steadfast declaration that the Dodgers would be “out” on the likes of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson if Turner ultimately signs elsewhere after rejecting his qualifying offer.
It’s worth noting, to at least some extent, that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning that Dodgers officials harbor some concern as to how Correa in particular would be perceived by fans. It’s been five years since the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but fans have a long memory and still hold plenty of resentment for how that season played out. There are greater public relations implications with a Correa/Dodgers fit than with Correa and another club.
Adding my own two cents to the matter, it’d be particularly problematic if both Correa and Turner wind up with comparable price tags — as many expect — and Correa gets out to a poor start. Even setting performances aside, there’d be plenty of fan backlash at the notion of letting Turner, currently popular and productive in Los Angeles, leave in favor of Correa if the two indeed have comparable price tags. Plus, as Rosenthal alludes to, the Dodgers tend to shy away from such lengthy contractual commitments. Mookie Betts is a notable exception, but Freddie Freeman is the only other contract of at least six years given out by the Dodgers under Friedman; Correa and Turner both figure to command lengthier pacts.
As for Lux, the notion of him stepping up as the everyday shortstop isn’t necessarily far-fetched. The 24-year-old (25 in a few weeks) ranked as one of the game’s five best prospects heading into the 2020 season and, after pedestrian small-sample results in 2019-20, has elevated his level of play. Lux’s .242/.328/.364 slash in 2021 was about 10% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+, but he upped his production with a .276/.346/.399 output in 2022 (113 wRC+).
Lux was having a monster summer, hitting .308/.380/.462 over a span of more than 300 plate appearances, when he began experiencing back pain and received a cortisone shot. He missed about two weeks’ worth of games in September and, upon returning, hit just .154/.170/.192 in his final 54 plate appearances, which helped to drag down his season-long numbers. Still, there’s good reason to believe that a full, healthy season of Lux in 2023 could be a highly valuable player for the Dodgers at shortstop.
At this stage of the offseason, teams haven’t even yet been granted permission to speak with free agents from other clubs, so there’s no way to properly gauge just what trajectory the team might take. Nonetheless, it’s of some note to hear Friedman prioritize Kershaw (and starting pitching in general) and give a vote of confidence to Lux as a shortstop option. The Dodgers will surely be attached to all of the marquee shortstops to an extent this winter, but that’s as much a reflection on their deep pockets and “open to anything’ mentality as it is on their perceived need at that specific position.
laswagn
I’m all for keeping Kersh, but not for $30+M. Low to mid $20sM is fine.
BlueSkies_LA
I don’t know why any fan should worry about what they pay him, but FWIW his contract guarantee last year was $17M along with some performance bonuses (not sure if any were achieved). No reason to believe he’d be in line for an increased guarantee this year.
mlb9229
I’m perfectly comfortable paying Clayton in the $17M + performance bonus range again in 2023. He more than exceeded people’s expectations on the mound in 2022 and the list of intangibles is endless.
vtadave
Kershaw earned $3 million in bonuses based on his 22 starts. I imagine there will be a similar contract offered for 2023, perhaps with a slightly higher guarantee.
BlueSkies_LA
Thanks for the added info. I can see a slightly higher guarantee and/or a more achievable set of performance bonuses.
B-Strong
He signed for 17m last year. His 30m days are over.
baseballfan90
The Dodgers are the reason why this sport needs a salary cap. And to be fair, teams like the A’s are the reason why baseball needs a salary floor.
Yankee Clipper
Why? What’s the point of a cap? It didn’t net them a WS, and with the expanded playoffs (which everyone says are a crapshoot), how does it matter?
Baseball without a cap is the most competitively balanced sport, with the most diversely winning teams. The sports with a cap are the ones that are far more imbalanced.
angelsfan4life
Salary cap? Since 2000, there has been more MLB teams that have won the WS, than NFL teams have won the Super Bowl. But hey the Salary Cap is going to make a difference.
CALgoldenBears
But the NFL (and NBA) are far more competitively balanced-big market as well as small markets
Kershaw's Lesser Known Right Arm
This x 100. For example, how many times does the #1 seed at least make it to the Super Bowl, let alone win it? And all I kept seeing for the better part of a decade was Warriors-Cleveland. Warriors-Cleveland. Now THAT’S boring!
amk1920
People who say this have zero clue how baseball works. The MLBPA is very powerful and would never agree to a cap. It’s not happening.
1drefordays6
statement man! Tampa bay pays pennies on their players and always are competitive every year. Teams need to value scouts and their farm.
If the Dodgers want to spend 1B on a pitcher, let them. If a team over spends on a player and fails in the playoffs, that hurts the owners not the game.
Yankee Clipper
How do Dodgers feel about Lux taking SS? This seems like a repeat of what the Yankees did, which was an utter failure.
rondon
As much money as they have invested in so many other spots I find it hard to believe that’s not a “company line” from Friedman.
paddyo furnichuh
Clipper, do you mean like with Torres in ’21? I hear you on it seeming similar. My feeling/hope is that Lux is one of those guys who will excel at SS if given that role everyday (like he seemed to do at 2B when playing there regularly)
I don’t have any metrics to back that up, just my opinion from watching Dodger games.
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Clip, it certainly is not ideal. Lux has been moved all over the past few years. Just not confident with him on defense or offense anymore. Gotta keep Trea Turner.
Crab L. Winston
I don’t entirely agree with that. Lux has MLB experience, is a natural shortstop, and spent a ton of time there in the minors. You cannot say the same about Isiah Kiner-Falefa aside from the MLB experience. Are there more accomplished options on the free agent market? Yes. But do they all necessarily represent an upgrade over Lux? Not necessarily. I think most anyone would buy the upside of Lux over IKF any day of the week. I would actually equate letting Lux play to giving Peraza or Volpe a shot at short.
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Crab, He is not terrible. I just feel like his confidence is at a low place right now. He’s been on the trade block more than once. I always pull for Lux. He obviously has talent but he hasn’t shined the way most have hoped for/expected. I guess I just really think they need Trea back. Keep Lux at 2nd. Best of both worlds. Other teams should be gunning for Lux if they believe he is a solid natural SS like you said.
Yankee Clipper
Trumbo: I guess my next question would be: If the LAD didn’t win with Turner, although they very well could have because they were an awesome team, how do they expect to be as competitive moving forward because he’s not easy to replace in the lineup or on the base paths? Do you think they will pivot to another big FA?
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Clip, even with Buehler going down, Cat Man going down, May being useless…They still managed to do well pitching and win a lot of regular season games because all of their pitchers did well and 2 of them (Heaney and Anderson) performed better than expected…Gonsolin exceeded expectations as well. The Dodgers need to emulate the product they had on the field in 2022 as much as possible next season with the addition of another solid starter or 2. Their bats went ice cold in the playoffs. You normally don’t see that with such a good team but it happens. Trot out a similar team next year with another few good pitchers and they’ll probably go further.
Yankee Clipper
Trumbo: Yeah, I completely agree with that.
Dennis Boyd
Lux is mediocre, I hope the Dodgers settle for him at SS, but I highly doubt they will
vtadave
Lux just put up a 3 fWAR season in 129 games. I’ll take that any day.
Dennis Boyd
Cool, less than half of Turner’s. That’s called subtraction by subtraction. Please let the Dodgers follow this awful idea.
30 Parks
Correa’s smug reaction to the Astros’ scandal was particularly grating.
angelsfan4life
At least he owned up to it. But keep cheering Betts who got caught on two teams that were cheating. But hey it’s ok.
30 Parks
Angels – we have different understandings of “owned up.”
avenger65
if Correa became a Dodger and did well, I think the home fans would forgive him for 2017. Players like Bregman and Altuve are still booed, but they are still on the team making it easier to remember the scandal. Still, they seem to be doing alright.
paddyo furnichuh
Most Dodger fans are aware of the Joe Kelly pouty face and Correa’s immature reaction. Maybe in press conferences, Correa didn’t sound as bad as Bregman or Altuve [(don’t take off my shirt, my wife won’t like it ! (BS)] yet he’ll be remembered for a long time by many Dodger fans.
That’s likely more true for the more dedicated fans and not the casual/fair weather fans who are too busy doing “the wave.”
Kershaw's Lesser Known Right Arm
I actually think it’s the other way around and the casuals who keep up this “Sign Correa and I’m no longer a Dodger fan” narrative
Neon Cop
They’ve conveniently forgiven Mookie, who cheated in 2018…
Fire Krall
So whats up with Bauers appeal..why would it take so long?
Terry B
Dodgers don’t want Bauer back….PERIOD! He’s a black eye on the organization! If MLB reduces his suspension Dodgers will just pay him to go away!
amk1920
The Dodgers have had bullpen games the last two octobers and it cost them their season. They should be begging Bauer to pitch if he wins the appeal.
avenger65
I wonder too. but even if he were to return to bb, how good would he be with two seasons lost already?
BlueSkies_LA
We already know how Correa is perceived by Dodger fans, and we also know how he’d be received. Badly. So now with the signaling that Friedman is comfortable with Lux as the full-time SS, a certain inevitability creeps in, especially if the thinking is trying to get a reset on the CBT.
paddyo furnichuh
@Blueskies….Though I do think Steve Adams meant to have a *not* in front of necessarily in 4th paragraph.
BlueSkies_LA
Good point, but I was commenting more on the paragraph following this one. The last time this subject came up for discussion here, quite a few argued that if the Dodgers signed Correa the fans would just get over it, and management wouldn’t take his reception by fans into consideration. That never seemed right, and according to this reporting, it isn’t.
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BlueSkies, Yeah. I do not see them signing Correa. It was the same thing with Bumgarner, and he is marginally less hated by fans. Couldn’t see why we would even consider him when we could keep Trea.
paddyo furnichuh
I agree with both of BlueSkies and Trumbo that signing Correa would not be prudent. While I’m very confident in the Dodgers FO, they’ve already been fooled once (an apparent blind FA signing from ’21).
BleedingBlue162232
Zero percent chance Correa is ever in a Dodger uniform. If you doubt this, please click on this link and watch the snippets of him being booed at Dodger stadium this past season, despite no longer playing for the Trashtros.
Also, I highly recommend watching the last video, which says “looking for information, getting informed” in the title space.
yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/watch_la_fans_give_for…
BlueSkies_LA
I was in the house for one of those games with the Twins this past season. Presumably we were loud enough so even management heard the choruses of boos in their offices. No, Dodger fans are not going to forget. You sure don’t walk away from that situation with the thought “the Dodgers might just sign this guy.” Probably all this talk about Correa to the Dodgers has more to with the FO signaling that they have a lot of good SS options, when in reality, they don’t.
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BlueSkies, No doubt. The Correa rumors are as incredulous as the ones about Kershaw and the Rangers.
Yankee Clipper
Trumbo: I did hear an interesting postulation in talk baseball podcasts that Turner may not return to LA, and if he doesn’t they may pursue Swanson. How would you all feel about him?
claude raymond
Blue, Giants fan here. I wonder if SS is the Dodgers biggest concern or not. Sure Lux is no Turner/Correa/Swanson/Boegerts (Sp?) but it seems you could be pretty safe with Lux and save $ to pay Judge/Degrom/Rodon, etc. To me you have bigger issues with Bellinger or JTurner or SP. In other words, why not go with Lux while at the same time improving in other areas. Why is shortstop for shortstop that important when shortstop for Judge etc would suffice while a promising Lux can develope. I want giants to get judge or turner and keep Rodon so I’m hoping the Dodgers spend more focus on a shortstop to sign cuz of the volume of great shortstops available. In other words, please spend your $ on a shortstop so my team can fill their needs from other positions. Blue, did I make sense? Or should I pound sand?
vtadave
@claude – From Andrew Friedman’s comments in recent days, it sounds as if SP is more of a concern than shortstop. I’m still guessing that they sign one of the big 4 shortstops and make Lux the every day 2B.
claude raymond
thanks VT, that makes way more sense since lux played 2B more than anything. Fans want to blame Roberts. Sure some decisions could be questioned–hindsight can be brutal. But he’s lost Buehler, Bauer, May and Gonsolin didn’t seem to recover enough from injury. And Kimbrell was not stellar. So pitching, SP and RP, should be their priority. Crazy to say but they kinda rode Anderson and Heaney to first place (of course the lineup had something to do with it too).
Samuel
claude raymond;
I remember you from when you pitched.
I see Andrew Friedman as some combination of unorthodox, outside-the-box thinking, practical, and forward thinking.
Am sure he’s been thinking about the SS situation and how it affects the team since he knew – probably years ago – that Seager would not work as a $200-300 SS.
I have no doubts that the people putting him in a box to sign one of the 4 FA SS’s are projecting their logic on Mr. Friedman, rather then knowing enough to stand back and let him work.
BlueSkies_LA
Nobody outside of the Dodgers FO knows how much they plan to spend next year, so I wouldn’t assume money not spent on Player A is available to spend on Player B. My feeling is if the Dodgers go with Lux at SS they are signaling their intention to reset the CBT and their free agent spending will be relatively modest.
boblowlaw2
I love how Dodger fans still cry about the Astros when the Dodgers were bugging the visiting clubhouse.
BlueSkies_LA
It’s alternate reality time!
boblowlaw2
You should get your hands on MLB’s sign stealing rules and ask yourself why there is a section about putting listening devices in the clubhouse. Then you can ask why teams started doing their pre-game meetings at the hotel instead of Dodger Stadium.
BlueSkies_LA
You should ask yourself why alternate realities always seem to require conspiracy theories.
DodgerOK
I’d rather invest in T. Turner than a fragile Correa.
iH8PaperStraws
Brad Miller will be in the rotation next year so that’s 4 of the 5 rotation spots filled.
Terry B
Brad????
paddyo furnichuh
Haha or Bobby? I suspect mid-season is the likelier timeline for his starting regularly in the majors.
vtadave
If Brad Miller is in the rotation, the Dodgers are in deep trouble.
Blank Frank
Trea Turner has the most beautiful slide.,,
Miles-
While I understand that Correa is a good player. I don’t want him in a Dodgers uniform. It’s not just the 2017 scandal, which I’m sorry, I won’t ever forgive them for. It’s also the fact that Correa has an extensive injury history, is prone to slumps, and I think the most important factor, there are better options out there. I’d rather take Bogaerts, Swanson, and of course, resigning Trea Turner. And if anything, I’d love to see Lux get a shot at the everyday SS role. Correa can go anywhere he likes, just not the Dodgers.
amk1920
Swanson has a poor track record before 2022. He would be a terrible sign for 100 million.
BaseballisLife
There are no better options. Correa is the best on the market. That has been hashed over ad infinitum and it’s not in question.
Neon Cop
Hey Miles, you realize all the high profile teams were stealing signs back then, right? The sanctimony is hilarious. Please do some reading!
citizen
come on coppy, i mean alex androupolis braves gm sign kershaw.
AshamedMethGoat
My bet is, Dodgers sign Swanson and keep Lux at 2B, which frees up the cash to get a frontline starter. Obviously, the Dodgers will spend what they need to continue this run, however, they’re looking at a black hole in the infield caused by the departure of elite production in Turner. WIth an unsettled rotation, taking the lower-cost option in Swanson and then signing a Rodon is a great way to reload while keeping the CBT payments from getting out of hand.
Dennis Boyd
Yes, please convince Dodgers FA to go with mediocre Lux or one good season Swanson. That’d be cool to see Dodgers get worse next year.
AshamedMethGoat
Yup…maybe they regress back to only 106 wins in 2023…
vtadave
Guessing you don’t really have a PhD based on your comments.
Was Swanson’s 3.4 fWAR season in 2021 poor? How about a 2.0 season in just 60 games the year before?
Dennis Boyd
@vtdave, you caught me. Yep, I don’t have a PhD in sabremetrics. I have one in a worthwhile pursuit. Speaking of worthwhile pursuits, Dodgers should re-sign Turner or get a top tier SS. However, I hope they follow your ideas and they get worse next year.
Kershaw's Lesser Known Right Arm
I think Lux would be better off at second base. He’s had some growing pains in the majors and I think he’s best suited sticking at one position for now while he figures things out. What I would be interested in seeing is giving Jacob Amaya a shot. He reminds me a bit of Jeremy Peña (entering 2022, not his Bondsian postseason)
Steve E.
I’m pretty confident in saying that Lux cannot handle playing shortstop. He doesn’t have the arm for it (there is miles-per-hour data to factually support this statement).
Then there’s his aim. He has trouble throwing accurately from second base, and let’s face it, Freeman has a league-average glove at first these days. He’s not going to save many wild throws.
Steve E.
Thinkin’ out loud here: Maybe trade Lux (and others) to the Brewers for Willy Adames.
That’s a guy the Dodger fans would love. Charisma in spades. Same for the fan base of the Brewers, since Lux is a native Cheesehead.
The Dodgers might as well use some of their 10-12 top-tier prospects as trade collateral if they are not going to play in Los Angeles.
Example: Michael Busch would probably start at 1B for the Brewers.