The Dodgers announced they’ve declined their $16MM option on Justin Turner. The third baseman receives a $2MM buyout and heads to free agency.
Turner, 38 later this month, struggled to establish himself in his first few seasons in the big leagues, struggling in his time with the Orioles and Mets. He joined the Dodgers for the 2014 season and busted out with a .340/.404/.493 batting line, production that was 58% better than league average according to wRC+.
Since that time, he’s been a mainstay in Los Angeles, playing at least 103 games in each season outside of the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s continued to be a consistently above-average hitter, never finishing a season with a wRC+ below 123. His power has often been strong, though never elite. He’s hit 27 home runs three times but never more than that. His bat-to-ball skills are quite strong, however, as he’s never posted a strikeout rate higher than 18%, well below the typical league average, with this year’s ending up at 22.4%.
Twice in his Dodger career, Turner has reached free agency and re-signed with the club. After the 2016 season, they agreed to a four-year reunion that came with a $64MM guarantee. He returned to the open market after 2020 and then re-signed with the Dodgers again, this time for a two-year, $34MM deal with a club option for 2023. That option was for $16MM with a $2MM buyout.
For the first half of 2022, Turner’s age-37 season, it seemed like he would make the decision very easy for the Dodgers. Through the end of June, he was hitting a paltry .227/.298/.375, wRC+ of 90. However, he completely flipped the script in the second half, hitting .340/.412/.514 for a wRC+ of 163 from the start of July onwards. That left his combined line pretty close to his typical level of production, as the result was a .278/.350/.438 slash for a 123 wRC+. That surely gave the club much more to think about, but they have still opted for the $2MM buyout instead of the $16MM salary.
While it’s always possible he and the team could reunite at a different price point, it’s now possible that the club sees a lot of turnover in its infield. Shortstop Trea Turner is also heading to free agency, meaning the club is potentially subtracting two Turners from the left side of the infield. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman recently spoke about how the club is open to having Gavin Lux slide over from second base to shortstop to take over for Trea, and it’s possible they feel the same way about having internal replacements take over the hot corner. Prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022, and though he struggled in his limited MLB time, he has tremendous minor league numbers. In Triple-A this year, he hit .304/.404/.511 for a wRC+ of 129. If they were willing to let he and Lux take over the left side of the infield, they could then dedicate their resources to the pitching staff and center field, where Cody Bellinger is a non-tender candidate.
If Turner does have to find a new employer for 2023, he will have one thing working in his favor. He will easily be the top option on the third base free agent market. Since Nolan Arenado decided not to opt out of his deal with the Cardinals, the best remaining options are utility players like Brandon Drury, Jace Peterson or Aledmys Diaz. Those players all are intriguing in one way or another but none of them has the track record of consistent offensive production like Turner does. Given his age, Turner won’t be able to secure a lengthy pact, but that will also appeal to certain clubs that prefer to avoid those types of deals.
fre5hwind
Game changer
dodgerskingsfan
one of dodger insider just said they are trying to resign him at a lower AAV. i’m sure JT will be a dodger again.
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Yeeesssssss!!!!!
Terry B
We all love JT but even bringing him back at a reduced price is not a smart move! He’s old and brittle and we seen that he can’t catch up to the high heat anymore! His defense has become average at best! Dodgers need to infuse some young talent into their lineup! Belli needs to go as well, he had THREE years to fix his swing and he hasn’t, ba-bye Belli.
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Nooooo!!!!!!!!!
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
I guess he’s no longer a head turner…
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Nyuk Nyuk!!!
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
Trumbo, Turner at 3rd for the Yanks?
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All I know is that I just guaranteed my Step Dad that he will be starting at 3B SOMEWHERE come opening day. He wants to prove that he still has more in the tank. Personally I think he does..I think Yankee Clipper or YBC would be better suited to answer that. I don’t know how the Yankees think…
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
OK, I’ll bite – who is your stepdad?
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Nobody in particular. Just a retired Nam Vet.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
A man to be proud of…
My old man was a WWII vet who had to clean up Hitler’s hate. What a world…
Champs64
Being a Nam Vet makes him a Somebody in particular.Thank him for his service. He never got the respect he deserved when he came home.
Blue Baron
Donaldson.
Terry B
Yessssss!
Milwaukee-2208
The leprechaun is free.
Fire Krall
no brainer..go get Drury or a super utility…. DH…all he has left!
Miles-
Sad to see but not completely unexpected. I’m still hoping that they get a deal done and bring back the leader of this team. I would love to see him finish his career as a Dodger. And of course, hopefully with another World Series ring.
Yep it is
Miles- The Doggers haven’t won in 34 years what makes you think they will win anytime soon? Especially with that Mgr? Don’t tell me about the 40% season play in tourney they won as legit.
thebudlightknight
Dang eat a snickers man clearly u need it…
Ita Pupu
You’re the reason people hate sports fans.
Latino Heat
Dodgers actually won in 2020 try to keep up
SFGLifer
lol @ dude thinking a 60 game season was legit lol.
genre99
Right, it’s not like they had to compete with the 29 other teams that all thought 2020 was legit, lol.
Terry B
Vagiants are laughable!
Latino Heat
You’re one of those dummy’s. Got it
Blank Frank
Had to win the most playoff games ever. Yeah, not legit. Delusional gnats.
baseballpun
“Another”
kellin
Is $8 per WAR too much?
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Genuinely shocked by this one. The Dodgers are practically made of money, Justin Turner is a very long time Dodger, he was productive enough for them in 2022 and he produced 2 WAR, which is good enough for a $14M decision on a long time veteran. 1 WAR is valued at around $8M for a veteran who typically produces above 2 WAR, so Turner would be worth around $16M for his 2022 production, so they’d be paying him exactly at value…. I wonder what gives? They saw a drop off and don’t want to pay him $16M for even less WAR or a Tommy John surgery they know is upcoming or something?
He’s worked out a couple of deals with them.
I wonder if they’ll re-sign him to 1 year/$10M w/ a $2M buyout on a $15M option or something like they’ve been doing recently for guys like him? Or if they’re saying “thanks for everything, but it’s over now.”
Only thing I can figure is with Turner going into his age 38 season and that relatively steep drop in productivity via WAR calculations, they figured he will drop off a cliff next year at any price point, so better to nudge him into retirement or letting another team possibly overpay for him?
mlbdodgerfan2015
The Dodgers spend money but they don’t like bad contracts. Financially, declining Turner’s last year was a no-brainer. Let’s see if they bring him back on a lower deal. Don’t forget that Turner is a declining asset. More likely that the bat and glove regresses even more in 2023, and of course greater risk for injury. So, you have to value him lower than 2022.
Dodgers have Muncy at 3B, or even Rios, or can trade for someone. I doubt they outright give Vargas the job, and he will need a lot of work with the glove at 3B. Vargas most likely starts at AAA, and I’d think more suited for LF. Dodgers can also slide Muncy to 2B, move Lux to SS and go find a 3B. Lots of options.
SupremeZeus
Friedman on Tuesday:
“We’re still working through our payroll and other needs and trying to balance everything together as much as we can to figure out what that looks like. That’s what we’re working on right now.
“The priority is that we show up in Glendale and for him (Justin Turner) to be a part of what we’re doing next year. What exactly that looks like, we need time to work through.”
BlueSkies_LA
There you go. He’ll be back with a reduced price tag and primarily in a DH role.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
Come on down to San Diego JT! We’ve got plenty of starts available at 1B/DH/Breather days for Manny!
SanDiegoTom
No thanks
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
Why? Tell me how a 280/.350/15-25 HR guy hitting behind Tatis/Soto/Manny and ahead of Cronenworth would be a bad thing. Especially being that it wouldn’t cost much. I’d go after him, Drury, Haniger, 2 of the back end starters, and call it a day. Could probably get them all for roughly 50m/season.
Poundsy24
That’s a little surprising. Seems like LAD is freeing up some $$$ for a bigger splash?
Turner instantly becomes a top-3 3B option in FA.
As a Sox fan, I’d like to move Devers off 3B and have him DH. I wouldn’t pay him $30 mil/year to DH though, but he’s just not great at 3B. He’s fine, but not championship caliber.
Other option for the Sox is to blow it up, take the picks from Bogey leaving, trade Devers for prospects and go with the 4-year plan.
Samuel
Poundsy24;
LOL
Trea Turner is one of the best SS’s in MLB. He’s healthy and 29 years-old. He might no even be able to play 3B. He’s an in-demand FA. Why does he have to move?
I see some strange things on here……
vtadave
Stranger than your post? Why bring up Trea Turner here?
Samuel
vtadave;
My mistake.
I do see strange things here.
Samuel
I got it.
What confused me is…..
With the point they’re at in restructuring the organization and the team, why would the Red Sox want a 38 year-old 3B?
nando390
5 mil and a spot on the bench
tbone0816
Would love him with the Cardinals for their DH!!
baseballpun
Rather let Yepez get the right-handed DH at bats.
Rsox
Turner could be back on re-worked deal. He is basically a DH at this point with maybe occasional starts at 3B.
Samuel
Rsox;
Huh?
C Yards Jeff
Turner and Longoria jettisoned on the same day.
Turner, with his agent’s blessings, works a new deal with LA.
Longoria seems beat up. So retires unless he does a back to TB one or 2 year deal.
Surprised if either one has an interest in going to a highest bidder. LA and TB being playoff relevant year in and out, trumps a best offer from another club scenario.
HalosHeavenJJ
Still think Turner is a Dodger if they have a roster spot for him. I just don’t see him moving at this stage of his life and career.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
He wouldn’t need to if he heads on down the freeway to San Diego. We’ve got tons of AB’s available at 1B and DH, and he’d look real good hitting cleanup or 5th in brown and gold..
HalosHeavenJJ
Hadn’t considered that angle.
I have a lot of respect for Turner. Cool guy, tons of charity work. Would be fun to be able to cheer him on in SD.
Won’t happen but would be fun.
User 2079935927
Jeopardy
What have you done for me lately for $600 Alex
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Personally, I think they ahould move on from him. He didn’t have the best season last year. If they keep him, it’s got to be for much less
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Hopefully they can work something out. He has enough $$ In the bank at this point.
Fraham_
Huge mistake by the dodgers
Terry B
Would have been a HUGE mistake had they paid him the QO, he’s just a shell of his former self, at the end of the day it’s still a business, would rather give the spot to Vargas or Rios!
User 2079935927
Perry- Sign him as back up for Rendon and Walsh. Better than those waiver wire flops we claim.
Kershaw's Lesser Known Right Arm
Yes! Yes! Yes! Thank you Friedman. Hopefully can work something reasonable out. If not, more $$$ towards deGrom hehe
Senioreditor
If you watched JT this year you saw a different player at bat. He had difficulty with velocity and his BA with 2 strikes was way down. Father Time has caught up with him as it does with everyone. Maybe he comes back at a lesser amount but as a Dodger fan it’s sad to see him possibly play elsewhere.
grandsalametime
If he goes elsewhere, I wonder if he brings his phony smudged jersey with him.
BaseballisLife
He played so well in the 2nd half that I thought sure the Dodgers would bring him back.
User 3663041837
He’ll resign at a lower price
carllafong
Angels should sign him to play first, and he could be insurance at third. Walsh won’t be ready at the start of the season and my not be the same after his surgery. This is the depth and versatility that they need– he’s a winner.
DarrenDreifortsContract
He ended up putting together a solid season. I wouldn’t mind bringing him back as a utility player at half the price.