Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was one of the biggest trade candidates not to be moved at the summer trade deadline, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Astros came close to completing a deal for the All-Star. Astros starter Jose Urquidy would’ve gone to Chicago in a straight one-for-one swap, which was agreed upon pending ownership approval. The Astros never got the green light from ownership, the deal collapsed, and the players remained with their respective teams.
The Astros were clearly in the market for a catcher at the deadline, and while they missed out on acquiring Contreras, they did turn around and acquire Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox. Vazquez and Contreras profile as very different catchers though, with Vazquez a defense-first player and Contreras posing more of a threat with the bat. There’s little consequence of course, as the Astros won their second World Series title last night but the proposed trade and the reasons it fell through sheds some interesting light on the front office workings of the Astros, particularly given the future of GM James Click is far from certain.
Contreras seemed almost certain to be traded at the deadline. He was, after all, a pending free agent who was hitting .252/.365/.453 with 14 home runs on July 31 for a Cubs team that was 41-60 at the time. While there were some concerns around his defense, his bat made up for that, and he seemed an ideal guy to split time between catcher and designated hitter for a team looking for an offensive boost. Given the Astros already had Martin Maldonado entrenched as their regular catcher, that sort of role may have been exactly what the Astros were looking for from Contreras.
The cost for Houston would have been Urquidy, a mid-rotation starter who still had three years of club control remaining (after the 2022 season). Urquidy, signed out of Mexico as an international free agent in 2015, wound up tossing 164 1/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball this year for Houston. Urquidy strikes out around 20% of batters, while walking them just 5% of the time. He is a bit prone to the home run ball, and gave up just over one per start in 2022. On the whole though, Urquidy was a dependable starter who had a big fan in manager Dusty Baker.
“Much as I like Willson Contreras, Urquidy was one of our best pitchers then,” Baker told Passan. “I needed a guy that wasn’t going to complain about not playing every day. And this is his [free agent] year. See, that’s tough. When you trade for a player in his [free agent] year. Everybody’s about numbers and stuff, and I can’t blame them, no doubt. But that’s not what we needed.”
It appears that owner Jim Crane thought the same, and did not give Click approval to go through with the trade. Given both Click and Baker are now off-contract, it’s an interesting insight into the inner workings of the Astros as they prepare to make some key decisions on the future of the franchise following their championship.
As it turned out, the trade didn’t go through, Contreras played out a strong platform year with the Cubs and the Astros picked up Vazquez for minor leaguers Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez. The Cubs will surely tender Contreras a qualifying offer which he’ll likely reject, and instead hit the open market as the top free agent catcher available. Vazquez, too, will be a free agent, though may be not as sought after as Contreras. Urquidy will go through arbitration for the first time, and look to build off a solid season in the Astros’ rotation.
Wow what a horrible move by Crane. Urquidy is nothing more than a 3-4 while Contreras is a proven all star catcher. It worked out for the Astros but if they could’ve traded and extended him that would have been amazing. Still champs but wow bad move Crane
You won a WS and have a much better asset in Urquidy. He can now be traded if you want or you can keep him pitching every 5 days.
Looks like a great call by Crane.
Agree 100% with you @Orioles2024. Pitching is valuable, especially one that’s on the younger side with 3 years of club controlling remaining. Contreas will be looking for a really nice contract.. judging by what both will get paid next year, and how important pitching is.. Id take Urquidy as well, and also agree that it was the right decision for the Astros. They kept a pitcher with 3 years remaining, and didn’t need a rental catcher who’s looking to get paid in the offseason to win a World Series.
Great move. He wasn’t needed. Can use Urquidy for a more needed asset in a future season.
Probably means Click is gone though. Crane is going to attribute that move to himself and further reasoning to not bring him back.
I wonder if Crane still consults with Luhnow on deals.
Luhnow would have made the deal.
How about Grandal straight up?
Sox might split his salary.
They have others that they need to pay soon. They do perfectly fine with Maldanado at catcher. Plus, they have Korey Lee waiting. Their pitching depth helped them thru out the season. Great no deal.
It’s a great move because they won the world series and if the really want Contreras they could you know sign him since he’s a free agent.
What a horrible take. You can use hindsight and yet you still came up with the wrong answer
Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make
Not to mention the 3 more years of control you have of a 3/4 starter as you call him. That would have been a horrible trade by the Astros regardless of how Contreras would have played because of the control. Fans really have zero idea on how to run baseball teams. Trade this guy trade that guy, sign every free agent lol no idea.
Click has overseen one of the best teams over the past 5 years. Groundwork laid by Lunhow no doubt but still is in the World Series hunt year after year…. HE thought it was fair enough to bring it to his owner for approval. So before you say things like “fans have no clue how to run baseball team” look in the mirror because YOU said it was a horrible trade but one of the top GMs in baseball did not. – perspective
How do you know it isn’t Crane driving the best moves the Astros make?
From what I have read, I do not like Crane and I do not like owners involved in player acquisitions unless they involve massive money. Those caveats being said, Crane made the right call
This might be the worst ratio I’ve ever seen on here haha. Great move by Crane.
I was thinking the exact same thing. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a huge disagreement to one comment lol
That being said, keeping Urquidy was 1000% the better move
Not a bad move whatsoever. You clearly have never watched Contreras catch. He’s below average. I rather have Maldonado as my catcher. Yes, Contreras has a darn good bat but his defense negates it. I have Christian Vazquez as top catcher on the market. Contreras is a dh.
He would have been a rental for most teams 2-3, Urquidy is a solid 2.5.
Much prefer Vazquez over Contreras. One of the better non-deals in MLB as subsequent trade for two guys much better return for less traded away.
The Astros have often prioritized having a catcher with strong defensive skills first, offensive production second. Contreras is the opposite.
A catcher’s main responsibility is handling the pitching staff any offense is gravy.
Dude, you can’t argue with someone who won the World Series!
????
I didn’t post this like thousand times, something happened with the feed.
@Latino Heat Same dude that said the Vazquez deal was terrible… lmao. I told you before the playoffs he was quality. I’ve never seen a comment with zero likes countered with a response of 64+ likes
It’s 75. And never see something like that on an Astros post especially.
This guy is clown on Twitter and this group
Click will be gone.
I watched the trophy presentation speeches. Jeremy Pena is very solid and also a very good ballplayer. Dusty was entertaining as usual. Crane was weird as usual. Click was a deer in headlights but genuine.
with a title in his pocket, the decision becomes much more interesting but the disconnect looks quite obvious between crane/baker and click, even though click has proven his ability to make the right decisions
Yet another example of an owner getting involved in player personnel decisions. As I’ve said many times, owners do have final say in whatever matter they choose to decide.
That IS what happens when you own something, so…
Sounds like Dusty nixed Click by going to Crane ?
I noticed at the trophy ceremony Dusty and Click were noticeably apart and not hugging lol
I followed the team all season. Baker does not have the platform to nix a FO deal. This is a clash between Click and Crane. The Astros also clearly did not want information on this to leak. Baker was the only one to take the interview question.
You don’t think Crane may have called Dusty , just get opinion on a deal , Dusty says , idk … I like my guy … Crane goes back to Click and says no
Is that possible?
I think the issue was whether the organization would be willing to move away from Maldonado as primary catcher this year. That would have happened after a Contreras trade. The answer was no, so they traded for Vasquez to be behind Maldonado instead. Vasquez then catches his first career no hitter in WS g4.
Yea i see a couple things here. For dusty to outright say this it means click is gone and 2 either dusty is gone so hes saying this cuz it doesnt matter or hes coming back and he and ownership prob wanted this out out there. Honestly they prob get more for the pitcher this offseason anyway, plus they got a chip so this is a win, win, win IMO
I don’t think the Astros organization wanted this out there in any instance. Just a slipup by Baker. He did have a lot going on at the moment.
There’s a couple of positions where you need to be strong defensively, catcher and ss.
Yeah Contreras is a sieve and not good at handling staffs
Exactly. That’s why not making a trade for Contreras was the obvious correct call. The pitching staff was incredibly comfortable and successful with Maldonado. It would’ve created friction and unease in the clubhouse between coaches, catchers, pitchers, etc…and FO. No way Contreras gets the playing time he’d want going into free agency, even supplanting Maldy as the #1 C and sharing DH. Plus Maldy has another year on contract, why piss that dude off?
Lot of respect for the way Maldonado managed the staff and did the little things like turning in to the pitch to get on base. Why so many catchers end up becoming managers
Excellent no deal.
Time to call the Brewers and trade for Stearns.
Would have been an atrocious trade for the Astros
Nice insight from Dusty there, that’s a good piece of reporting.
Urquidy was a nice starter this season, that would have been a good trade for the Northsiders, Urquidy has three years team control.
Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier also have three years control and McCullers is signed ’26. Luis Garcia has four years control. Astros have a nice pitching staff in place for the next three seasons.
Does this come out if the Astros lose?
I actually think it’s more likely to come out of the Astros lose, cuz Click would want to turn up the heat on Baker and on Crane because of them seeming to work together against him.
You can’t turn up the heat on the owner. If you do, you’re cooking your own ass.
It’d be everywhere, not just here.
“If it’s whispered, we report on it three months later…”-MLBTR
Top tier reporting, Pulitzer material
Good move. Should have rejected a few other trades as well.
The Odoruzzi/Smith swap was terrible
Well that shoots the theory that no one offered the Cubs a better return than a 2nd/3rd rd sandwich pick for Contreras out of the water.
A middle of the rotation starter with the peripherals of a bottom of the rotation starter would have been so much better!
I guess we will see between the draft and five years from now if the Cubs made the right choice in keeping Contreras…
What are you talking about? Three years of Urquidy is way more valuable than a comp pick. He definitely outpitches his peripherals, but he’s done this for two full years and two years with smaller sample sizes. Some guys are just better pitchers than their peripherals (Chris Young was one, for instance). I’m a big stats guy but you can’t just watch stats with players. You gotta watch them pitch too.
Besides, what’s the best you could realistically hope to get for a comp pick when you let Contreras walk? The Rays had like 9 of them in 2011 and they managed to get Blake Snell and 8 complete nobodies.
Blake Snell!
In 2016 the Indians drafted Aaron Civale in the third and Shane Bieber in the forth.
Also in the third round that year: Sean Murphy, Zac Gallen, Dustin May, Jesus Lazardo, Austin Hayes.
That was just a random year I selected… so best you can hope for in a 2/3 round supplemental pick… there are a few
Last year cubs young winners weee Corbin burns and Robbie ray… which of those were drafted ahead of the competitive balance round?
Several star pitchers come from deep in the draft, Edwin Diaz was a third rounder, Brandon Woodruff was a fifth rounder if I recall correctly. The Cubs believe in their drafting and development more now than ever (especially when it comes to pitchers). We won’t know for several years if a compensation pick is better.
I’m a Guardians fan so you’re right on Civale and Plesac. But put them in another organization and I don’t know if their development goes the same way. That said, I’d definitely rather have Urquidy than Plesac, and if he’s worse than Civale it’s not by much.
You mentioned a few good examples of guys picked in that range, but that’s the best possible scenario. The draft is a crapshoot so you could get lucky and find a great player or you could end up with nothing. I’d rather have three years of a solid starter than the ~chance~ of finding someone who might only be a little better.
The Cubs brought in Carter Hawkins (from the guardians which is why I brought up Cleveland specific players) and overhauled their pitching development program… since their overhaul, Cubs have had great results with their “home grown” pitching, Steeles been a stud, Thompson as well. We have churned out a couple really solid relief options via trade and internally. None of the guys making impacts were top draft choices.
Last season with Hawkins at the helm, the Cubs nabbed a bunch of pitchers. A Hangul found themselves in the Cubs top 30 which is a greatly improved farm system. Highest ranked is Nasier Mule, (aside from Horton and Ferris) a forth round pick with a rocket for an arm.
These reasons are why I believe the Cubs held onto Contreras, was Jose a safer bet, of course, that’s why the Cubs agreed to the trade. But I don’t think his value as a player vastly outweighed the value of the pick the Cubs will receive. If he was the best offer, which apparently he was, from any organization, I’m not the least bit mad the Cubs held onto Contreras.
So the cubs almost got Urquidy which is a really great return and they didn’t have a plan b?
Evidently, no other contenders wanted Contreras (for the price).
We’ll see who wants him in free agency where he can work with a pitching staff throughout spring training.
Catchers don’t bring back that great of return at the deadline because the nerds have researched deadline deals in the past for catchers and realized it’s too hard for the catcher to learn the staff half way through the year.
And the Astros offered him despite seemingly no one else offering more value than a 2nd/3rd rd sandwich pick?
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Interesting. This had to be a major factor in the disconnect between owner Jim Crane and now ‘free agent’ GM James Click.
Not a contributing factor, but is a symptom of the problem.
Fun facts that Click should have known:
The NL Central was one of the worst divisions in the history of MLB, collectively playing .435 ball outside their division. You have to check any player from the division to see if they were feasting off the crap pitching therein.
.267 / .401 / .528 (217 PA) Contreras vs. NL Central
.225 / .307 / .421 (270 PA) Contreras otherwise.
That immediately makes you wonder, how did he fare against the tough relievers when the game was on the line?
.906 / .853 / .554 OPS in Low / Medium / High Leverage.
fWAR credited him with 1.9 batting WAA. His actual Win Probability Added was -0.22. That reduces his WAR from 3.3 to 1.2 … and that’s without adjusting for the division.
(I actually first noted his relatively awful WPA, year after year, and worked backwards from that.)
I was doing splits by opposition pitcher quality as a Baseball Ops consultant for the Red Sox in 2005. SABR President Vince Gennaro won the best presentation award at the SABR conference maybe 10 years ago for the same kind of work, which he had also been doing for a pro team. It boggles my mind that you could be a pro GM and not know this stuff.
Vazquez has of course been playing in the best division in MLB, and Fangraphs’ “Clutch” stat (inaccurate but in the ballpark) has him as +0.80 wins in his career versus -6.90 for Contreras. Vazquez is much the better player of the two.
May want to check his ops against playoff teams
That .554 OPS in high leverage situations is 88 PAs. Last year, .846 for the same stat and .744 career.
Hey, Barry Bonds has -8.4 clutch for his career. Vazquez is much the better player of the two.
Yeah but Barry Bonds wasn’t very good…
I’m sorry. I shouldn’t have compared Barry Bonds to Vazquez since he wasn’t a catcher.
Ivan Rodriguez has -9.6 clutch for his career. Vazquez is much the better player of the two.
But how did Rodriguez do in the 9th inning, against playoff teams, in Minute Maid park, at 932pm, with the weather being 72 degrees and the roof closed? That’s the real question.
Not as good as Yordan Alvarez would have done. But Yordan is -2.4 clutch for his career. Vazquez is much the better player of the two.
I think the Cubs should hire this Eric guy. He worked for the Red Sox back in 2005. The NL Central would not be the worst division in the history of MLB anymore with Eric on board.
As Walter Sobchak would say,
“Shut the f*** up, Donny.”
I thought I’d run Alvarez’s numbers … I have him at -3.5, but -2.6 of that is his rookie season. Great hitters often have a negative “clutch” (really badly named) because they hit bad pitchers even better, relatively, than the good ones. That doesn’t mean they don’t hit good pitching well
You can be a terrific clutch hitter, in the common sense of the term (because you hit good pitchers unexpectedly well), and get a negative “clutch” if you completely destroy the opposition in garbage time. Conversely, a positive “clutch can indicate a player who phones it in once a game seems to be decided, even if his performance in normal leverage is completely ordinary.
Since his rookie season, Alavrez has gained 11% on his oWAR by doing the former This year he had 6.4 fWAR, but when you adjust for his cleaning up against bad pitchers in blowouts and the like, it’s “only” 6.2. It doesn’t change our estimate of him at all.
Thanks, Eric. You’re a good sport.
You’ll notice that you had the counter-arguments that I deemed worth rebutting!
I have no ego invested in this stuff. I just like to know what’s actually going in, to the best of my ability. to determine..
Yup, .744 career, vs. .813 in medium, and ..833 in low. Note that high leverage includes situations against weak starting pitchers with men on in close games, so all you’re looking for here is confirming evidence of the thesis that that he doesn’t hit good pitching, as evidenced by his divisional splits career WPA.
Fangraph’s “Clutch” stat is ill-conceived and doesn’t always work.. I confirm that it does in a given case before I cite it. The right way of calculating it: you derive runs per win by dividing RAA by WAA, use that to translate WPA into runs, and compare that to offensive RAA, which is context-neutral. Couldn’t be more straightforward.
Barry Bonds had 1143 career batting RAA, but his WPA of 126.7 translates to 1275 RAA, which is actually +13.1 runs of clutch in his career, and 0.68 per 650 PA. Since he was walked a huge number of times in high-leverage situations, this is exactly what you’d expect..
The same math puts Contreras at -7.2 wins of clutch, so FG’s -6.9 is in the ballpark (as it usually is). That’s -1.2 wins of clutch per his typical 480 PA, where he’s averaged 2.6. He’s lost 46% of his measured value by his inability to hit good pitching.
And again that’s without normalizing his numbers for an average set of opposing pitchers.. Vazquez hit better outside his division this year (.291 / .338 / 402, versus .245 / ,273 / .395 vs. the AL East) than Contreras did and is widely regarded as a much better defender.
Obviously worked out for the astros but sucks for click that this was leaked because it sounds like dusty and crane teamed up against him which weakens his authority. Not sure if it really went like that but that leak makes it sound that was what happened.
Not a great look after a WS, maybe he really is on the way out
Dusty leaked it? Nah. Crane hired Dusty, Click doesn’t want Dusty. Crane’s vision prevailed here. If you battle the owner, you’re going to lose.
Baker was the only one who answered media questions about this. The media already had the lead but had no confirmation from the Astros until Baker did this.
Not a big deal!
Most MLB Teams listen to multiple team voices before they make deals.
Ownership usually gets a “heads up” and major deals cross their desks before completion.
Not sure what arrangement that Click has with Crane and if Crane brought Dusty on board with the understanding that Dusty gets input on deals too.
Owner Crane has huge respect for Dusty.
Click was hired afterwards.
Have read that some Presidents of Baseball ops also consult key players on the team and other players who have formerly played on teams with players they are looking to acquire
to judge character, teamwork, work ethic, “fit” for their team before acquiring the player.
I think Dombrowski has commented on this sort of thing in the past etc…
They want as much good info/intel as they can get before they pull the trigger on a deal.
Dusty wasn’t sure about the deals they did do. This was Crane v. Click and owner’s always gonna win.
I get what Dusty is saying about trading for a FA to be and PT. But, Vasquez is also a FA and said at some point after the trade that he’s be looking for a team that’d give him more PT. So I’m not sure that was the issue that caused Crane to nix the Cubs deal. I just think he’s too hands on plus doesn’t seem to like James Click for some reason. Just a hunch on my part here, but would not be shocked to see him let Click leave and bring back Luhnow again. Especially now that they’ve won a “clean” WS. Not sure Crane cares so much for public opinion on the matter of the ‘17 scandal now that it’s 5 years in the past. Like I said, just a hunch.
Bringing back Luhnow is probably a stretch now that he owns two soccer teams. I like the idea though.
Stearns
Contreras is a lazy, me-first player who is mediocre at best on defense.
So, Click goes out and gets Vazquez instead for Dusty and Vazquez promptly complains about not playing in “his year”. (Yes, I can see this was more about Dusty wanting to keep Urquidy.)
On one hand, not trading multiple years of a solid (if unspectacular) SP for a bat first rental catcher was a good (non)move.
OTOH, the team’s owner meddling in personnel moves is giving me Peter Angelos flashbacks.
Seems like Dusty gave insight too. This doesn’t seem like the stuff McLane used to do in Houston (very similar to Angelos is how involved he was and it was terrible).
Contreras is an interesting FA with entering 31yo season at a position that does not age well. He’s not that great a defensive C/working with a staff (which is priority #1 to well run clubs) and offense isn’t that special to pay a premium if he were anything but a catcher. Seems more like a 3/45 with his age and profile. Spend foolish advocates will put out comps of topping bad contracts like Grandal (4/73),but if anything good teams will draw its line at offering well short for fair offers & let desperate “make a splash”.
I did NOT POST my comment a million, thousand times!
It replied to everyone?
Worked out for the Astros in spite of the nixed trade. Now if they want, they can sign Willson Contreras and keep Jose Urquidy.
“Vazquez, too, will be a free agent, though may be not as sought after as Contreras.”
Nope. Where is the editor?
“Vazquez will also be a free agent, though may not be as sought after as Contreras. “
Hm
Now, they can have both plus Maldonado and kept Urquidy as well.
Altuve 4
Peña 6
Alvarez 7
Bregman 5
Tucker 9
Contreras DH
Vazquez 3
McCormick 8
Maldonado 2
Lets Go !!
When the hell has Contreras ever complained about playing time. Doesn’t matter now. It worked out in the end. Dusty got his managerial ring.