Since 2014, Justin Turner’s provided the Dodgers lineup with an elite bat and sound defense at the hot corner. Yet after a season that saw his output decline the veteran’s future in LA is up in the air. The Dodgers hold a $16MM team option for 2023 with a $2MM buyout, and according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, haven’t informed the 2022 winner of the Roberto Clemente Award of their decision yet.
It was a tale of two halves in 2022 for Turner. The buyout looked to be the heavy favorite at the All-Star break, as the 37-year-old posted just a .256/.331/.403 line with five home runs. It was vintage Turner after the break though, as he hit .319/.386/.503 with eight home runs to finish the season with 13 home runs and a .278/.350/.438 line. That still amounted to Turner’s worst offensive production since joining the Dodgers, but the strength of his second half has made the decision a tough one for the Dodgers’ front office. On the other side of the ball, Turner saw his defensive numbers decline, as he posted -2 Outs Above Average and -2.1 UZR. As a result, around half his appearances this season were at DH.
Turner’s option decision is, in fact, just one element of a complicated off-season for the left side of the Dodgers infield. The team will lose shortstop Trea Turner to free agency, while Max Muncy, who made 84 appearances at the hot corner, is under contract at $13.5MM. Muncy also scuffled at the plate in 2022, hitting .196/.329/.384 with 21 home runs but graded out better defensively with seven Defensive Runs Saved in 84 games at third base, and is also capable of manning second base.
The Dodgers may be hesitant commit $29MM to two players coming off of down years, particularly if they’re looking to make a serious bid to either re-sign their star shortstop or go after someone like Carlos Correa. Per RosterResource, the Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll projects at around $176MM in 2023, though that’s before factoring in arbitration-eligible players. That leaves them with a fair bit of space to maneuver in before reaching this year’s mark, but the Dodgers do need to spend at the aforementioned shortstop position, solidify their rotation and they’ve been rumored to be in the market for Aaron Judge.
With that being said, it’s hard to imagine Turner in a different team’s uniform, and the Dodgers may well value his leadership and veteran presence enough that they bring him back, either via the team option or on a new, restructured contract. Plus, while Turner may be starting to decline, he’s still a productive player that was worth 2.4 fWAR in 2022. The Dodgers have until five days after the World Series to decide on Turner’s option, and while there’s a solid argument to be made either way, it still seems a good chance he’s back in Dodger blue in 2023.
Editor’s note: This post originally indicated Muncy’s option had yet to be exercised. The team preemptively exercised it in August when signing Muncy for an additional year.
I’m just wondering when will Jimmy Nelson and Dustin May will come back.
may will be back…i believe he’s ARB eligible… but not a
FA..im sure of that
Mets DH??
Both of them are pitchers…….
Bring him back. He deserves the benefit of the doubt! He has major intrinsic value!
Yeah, his value can’t simply be measured with analytics. He is a leader on this team and they’ll find a way to bring him back, one way or another.
WooOOOOoooOO Hope so Coop!!!!!!!!!! Hoping the same thing!!!!
Not to rain on your parade or criticize your enthusiasm or anything – but I’ve just gotta ask – are you on something right now..? !!!!!! 🙂
Whatever it is, gimme some of that.
My guess is that the Dodgers decline the option, but both Justin and Dodgers will work out a contract depending on how aggressive they will be in getting the players they want signed. It will be come to the Dodgers before any decisions are made. I don’t see JT leaving the Dodgers as he is too invested in being a team leader, as well as he is so entrenched into LA. The Dodgers respect JT, and want him around as a player as well as probably a potential manager in the long term future.
Streaking Blue, Solid post amigo!
I am using your phrase for my next annual review, TrumboJumbo. The major intrinsic value I add to the company that cannot be identified or quantified but I bring it. The phrasing made me laugh but also I agree with it. And to be honest, Turner does have it. I don’t! 🙂
That is what most CEO’S bring to the table….”Intrinsic” and henceforth “unquantifiable” value….They defer to that person because of their instinct and ability.
“Margin Call” 2011. Great movie….
Give him 1/$5M to DH full time.
Dude put up a wRC+ in the mid 120’s. Someone’s gonna give him helluva more than that.
A’s fan is way off a players value. I’m shocked… jk
Wasn’t Muncy’s option already guaranteed earlier this season?
Yeah I’m almost positive his option was picked up and another year added.
Turner I think will be back at around 10 million. I don’t see him playing for another team, similar to Kreshaw but I think Kershaw got his “thanks for everything you did” contract last season.
Yes, muncy signed a guaranteed contract for next year
No, that was last year. This coming year is the last one on this contact, and an option season.
You’re my blue sky, you’re my sunny day…
Hey @Blueskies, as a Giants fan, I am in the minority as one who doesn’t “hate” the Dodgers. I have a ton of respect for them and love the rivalry. That said, J. Turner is one of my least favorite players in all of baseball. I don’t really know why, but I can’t stand that dude. My question: is he a “cool” guy? Is he truly a leader, a community man, an elder statesmen? The photos of him in his perpetual off-field tracksuit and big red beard freak me out! Am I wrong?
he is definitely a community man. he won the Roberto Clemente award today
“You’re my blue sky, you’re my sunny day
Lord, you know it makes me high…”
Thanks for reminding me of happy song!
@bedbath, yeah, I read that. It surprised me a little. The Roberto Clemente award is seemingly only given to those who truly deserve it. That’s why I was asking about Turner.
Got beaten to the punch on that one. JT is a good dude. Don’t be afeared of the beard!
BTW, the tune is “blue skies smilin’ at me.” For those who know their Gershwin.
I believe they’re referring to the Allman Brother’s song.
@blueskies, thanks! I always appreciate your posts so thought you’d be the Dodger’s fan to ask.
I’m afraid I got faked out. Muncy was extended this year and his option year pushed out by a year, a fact that I forgot, and Baseball Reference hasn’t caught up to yet.
I’ve gotta think both sides are interested enough to make something happen. Maybe $12M/3y?
They certainly aren’t going to give him 3 years but he’s also as certain not to accept $4M/year lol. maybe 1/$12M but sure as heck not 3/$12M
He’s not going to get 3 years.
These contract guesses are cringe worthy
Fine. $13M/3y, final offer
He’s not going to get 3 years what don’t you get about that.
I could see them buying him out and signing him for a lesser AAV. Perhaps even two years a la Utley at the end of his playing days.
Turner has been such a quietly excellent player in LA. He also seems to be a team player and there is definitely a role for him, even if it is reduced.
The Rays – whose FO Andrew Friedman put together and ran – are extremely good at realizing when a player isn’t worth the money he’s getting and is headed downward. Friedman and his staff will figure Turners worth and determine if they have a role for him in 2023 or they have someone else that’s better.
Naturally.
If the Dodgers will seriously pursue Aaron Judge, they’ll probably do the $2 million buyout. It’s still the Dodgers though and $16 million is nothing for a big market team.
He’s not worth $16 mil…they’ll either pay the buyout and resign at lower cost…he’s worth more to LA at a reduced cost than any other team…
The decision is whether he is worth $14 million because they are paying the $2 million buyout if they don’t exercise the $16 million Club Option. I think the Dodgers will decline the Club Option and later re-sign him for 2 years, $24 million. He was worth 2.4 fWAR in 2022.
I know JT has a been an excellent player for Dodgers since he signed with us but realistically speaking Father Time has caught up to him and it’s time to move on from him and Belli! Dodgers have a lot of holes to feel and being sentimental AINT going to get us another ring! Dodgers need a frontline starter, an outfielder to replace Belli and another solid bullpen arm, not to mention a shortstop if Trea don’t resign! Gotta cut payroll and that starts with Belli and JT!
Not sure they really “need” a Frontline starter lol… by my count they’ve already got 4 not to mention a 5th coming back from injury eventually… OF, yeah they might need something there especially if Bellinger doesn’t make a miraculous rebound. And everyone could use bullpen help, though the Dodgers aren’t exactly desperate their either lol. Turner was still a .270/.350 hitter last year. Sure he hit 27 HRs a couple times but more regularly he was an average guy with some pop… I think he still has value just maybe not quite at $16M. with the $2M buyout though… he might be worth (close to) $14M and thus the option might as well just get exercised vs haggling over $2M
I think the Dodgers re-sign Turner but I don’t think they are going to worry too much about the luxury tax next year.
The Yankees are assured to go over next season with only 17 million under but are 73 million in the clear for 2024 without a crazy arbitration class.
I could easily see the Dodgers spending big, blowing the luxury tax out of the water, adding two big ticket items on long term contracts but also padding in with one year deals where they can dip under in 24
Of course, I’m not a payroll guy and have insider knowledge but it seems the Dodger way of doing business.
Justin Turner is still way ahead of Father Time. The Dodgers are not going to cut payroll to just cut payroll. This is still their window for winning a championship. They are going to be tactful, but get what they want.
Welcome to the Texas Rangers.
He’ll be back. Hard to choose which way, but I’m leaning towards a one year deal in the $8 million range, making his total take home $10 million after the buyout.
The Tigers should sign him for a year & $12M. He’s better than any other option we have at 3B.
And why exactly would Turner sign with Detroit?
Miguel Vargas seems to be his natural replacement at the hot corner, other potential contenders either have an entrenched player at the position or are looking for a better option, & the Tigers could use a veteran bat to lead the team. We’d have to overpay for him, but we could use him if we did pony up enough. And if someone’s willing to pay you a lot, more than anyone else, you go with it.
No point bringing him back they have Vargas ready to go so signing Turner would further crowd things up. I get it Dodger fans think his leadership is important and to that I say in this day and age team leadership means nothing. Players are so me me me that a team leader means very little. They might want to concentrate on additions that might help them not choke when the lights get brightest.
And by choke you mean lose to another really good team in a coin flip series?
No, I think he means choke as in choke.
“Per RosterResource, the Dodgers luxury tax payroll projects at around $176MM in 2023, though that’s before factoring in arbitration-eligible players”
Actually that includes some of the arbitration-eligible players.
It’s time to move on. His bat speed was evident he’s on the decline.
Obviously, I’m a Cards fan… bit the Dodgers habe to bring back JT. Just like the Cardinals with waino, Pujols and Molina. Let this man play year to year and evaluate. Let him retire Dodger Blue. It means something even if pencil pushing Harvard sabermetrics guys say it don’t….
Dodgers are so flush with cash people have no idea….How could the $100,000,000 on Bauer have been better allocated in hindsight? Any ideas people?
By trading for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer…. Oh wait
The guy hit a career high 36 doubles in just 468 AB. Pick up the option at an extra cost of $14M already. Don’t overthink it.
FWIW, the difference between his first and second halves are almost entirely BABIP-related.
“The team will lose Trea Turner to free agency.”
I doubt that is an accurate description by the writer of this article. Made it seem that the Dodgers are not interested in Trea at all, which is false.
Since his overall performance is 2022 was nearly identical to 2021, it’s sort of weird to say Turner is in decline. And though defensive metrics are pretty much trash stats, his future value is mostly as a DH, a possibility not really considered in this article. A team could do a whole lot worse than Turner as a bat-only guy. The really tough decision is on Muncy. He started show signs of life towards the end of the season but if Turner isn’t worth $16M then for sure Muncy isn’t worth $13M, at least based on the most recent season.
Trash stats isn’t quite right. It’s no shock that generally well regarded defenders, often grade out positively in the main stats. Often poorly regarded defenders, grade out poorly. They aren’t perfect, but they’re a reasonable reflection.
There’s a reason Arenado and Hayes topped the 3B DRS numbers, whereas Bohm and Yandy Diaz were the worst. Similar stories across the positions – good guys rate good, bad guys rate bad.
Give it a chance, BlueSky. You’re never too old to learn something new.
Too old? Nice!
The defensive metrics are trashy because they are so unstable, something even those who like to quote them acknowledge when pressed on the point. Players can rate alternately well and poorly, year after year. You have to average them together over several years, or so we’re told. Oh, really?
The likelihood that defensive skills actually vary significantly from year to year is pretty darned small. Consider, a defender who plays regularly can have hundreds if not thousands of encounters with fielding and throwing in any given season. A stable statistical measurement can’t be derived from all that data? Hmm. How about recognizing when stats might be measuring more noise than signal, and treating them with some skepticism? It’s allowed, I promise.
Reality: some things aren’t easy to quantify, or everything would be quantified. But hey, maybe you need to be “old” to have figured that out.
So would you rather have Turner 1.9 war or Bellinger 1.2 war for 1 year 8-10 million or 2 yr/15 Million? Considering both players age and LA’ s position needs? Belli is 10 years younger can play elite defense and multiple positions (all 3 OF positions and 1B). If a injury to Freeman or he needs a break to DH. Yeah, I know Muncy can too (1B 2B and 3B and DH). Obviously Muncy (2.7 war) and Belli haven’t been the same since the arm injuries. I would put my money on Muncy (21 HR)or Belli (19 HR) contributing before Turner (13 HR). Who is the bounce back candidate?
I think batting Belli 9th has messed him up even more. He signs somewhere else 2345 hole..he will hit 30 home runs. I see him going to Yankees if they dont get Judge resigned or if they do resign Judge , then Cody playing LF/1B as Yankee. That LF porch very would be nice for him. Dodgers need OF…not an aging DH/3B Turner. 2 million buy out and move on? Or does he stay and retire in Dodger blue on a very team friendly deal?
Ain’t gonna study WAR no more. Seriously, I don’t, and I don’t see teams making their roster decisions that way either. If they let JT go they’ll be shopping for another DH, and if you look at where he was batted all season (in the heart of the order) you can see Dodgers aren’t thinking of him as over the hill. He starts off slowly almost every season but comes through in the end. I believe he’s got at least one more year in his bat and I bet the Dodgers do too.
The dodgers have Justin Turner’s replacement on the roster right now, Miguel Vargas. It the Dodgers want a premium shortstop (they are looking at Correa) and to pursue Judge, and they might need a pitcher or two (resigning Anderson would be a good idea) and were unwilling to go COMPLETELY insane on the luxury tax front, they would be well-advised to just plug Vargas in there at low cost.
I wouldn’t get too excited about Vargas just yet. Shows well in the minors but he’s had only a taste of the majors so far, and he’s still really young. Another year of him bouncing back and forth between OKC and the big team would probably be good for his development.
They’re going to need a pitcher or three, or four. As it stands now only Urias is certain. Gonsolin has to prove he can get through a season, May has a lot of work to do, and neither Grove or Pepiot seem ready.
Great player, time to retire, Miguel Vargas is awesome
Can Vargas play 3rd?
I could see them reworking the deal to be a lower base salary with incentives that may bring the value of the deal to the $16 million of the option.
Turner has been a staple of the great dodgers run but I would give the job to miguel vargas at opening day. Vargas is a worse defender than turner and probably will be slightly below average but his bat projection shouldn’t be much worse than aging turner and the dodgers Probably are better of saving those 14 mil (including buyout) and going with vargas because maybe turner is a 2 war player at best anyway next season and vargas probably is a 1.5 war player (but also has upside for more).
With those 14 mil (or 13.5 including vargas salary) the dodgers certainly can buy more than 0.5 war.
$2 mil to walk as the Dodgers need to get younger and more athletic. They do need to resign their SS or go after Corea as that is too big a hole to fill. The Dodgers are the only team who could take on Corea and Judge on the payroll.
Do the Dodgers have a young 3bman in the system?
Simon, first you said, “The team will lose shortstop Trea Turner to free agency,” a definitive statement that took me aback. Later on, you said, “it’s hard to imagine Turner in a different team’s uniform.”
What exactly are you saying?
Simon says…
Turner winning the Roberto Clemente Award would seem to make it at least slightly awkward for the Dodgers to subsequently cut him from the roster with a buyout.
A parting gift…a gold watch if you will…and thank you for your illustrious service!?
(I really think he’ll remain a Ducking Fodger in 2023. :))
Miguel Vargas will win the starting 3rd base job sometime during the 23 season.
Or he could just retire having ended his career strong, no?
Considering how the Dodgers like multi-position players and have IF Max Muncy and 3B Miguel, I wouldn’t expect Justin Turner back. I think the Dodgers take a long look at 3B Vargas and 2B Michael Busch.
Love JT but I don’t think they should exercise the option. By the end of the season, he wasn’t catching up to fastballs. Explore bringing him back as a RH bench piece. But they have three younger players who can handle third in Vargas, Muncy and Rios.
Every player has their ups and downs but I’m not seeing problems with him making contact at the end of the season. His OPS over the last two months were .815 and .946. He was also DH-ing almost as much as playing 3B last year, so keeping him on the roster wouldn’t preclude someone else getting a lot of innings at the position.
I hope they bring Turner back. Yeah, his production has declined. But, he’s a leader in the clubhouse. It wouldn’t be the same without him.