For a fourth consecutive season, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander held a press conference to discuss his team’s playoff exit — this time after seeing the Rays’ lineup held to just one run in 24 innings during a two-game Wild Card ousting at the hands of the Guardians (links via Adam Berry of MLB.com and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). In broad terms, Neander spoke of a need to improve the offense, particularly against right-handed pitching, while also praising the depth and quality of the returning pitching staff.
As a collective unit, Rays hitters batted just .234/.305/.373 against right-handed pitching. Their 24% strikeout rate against righties was seventh-worst in MLB (and trailing only one playoff club, Atlanta). Rays hitters connected on 108 homers against righties, placing them 22nd among MLB clubs.
There are varying reasons for the struggles against righties. Playing much of the season without injured lefty-swinging Brandon Lowe, a career .257/.353/.505 hitter when holding the platoon advantage, deprived the Rays of one of their top power threats against right-handed opposition. Wander Franco and Kevin Kiermaier also missed substantial time, and the Rays received a fairly pedestrian showing from deadline pickup David Peralta, who was largely acquired for his track record in this specific area. The spate of health issues pushed the Rays to lean on younger, unproven players more often than they’d have liked and also brought about more right-on-right matchups than the team would surely have preferred.
To that end, Neander indicated that changes are likely on the horizon. While of course declining to mention specific names, the team’s top decision-maker indicated a need to “raise” the team’s “offensive standards” and plainly indicated that the Rays cannot simply “stand pat and assume things will get better.” As ever with the Rays, an active offseason seemingly awaits.
Some degree of turnover was always to be expected, given the Rays’ massive slate of 19 arbitration-eligible players — the most of any team in Major League Baseball. That group will cost a projected $42MM next season, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Paired with the roughly $25MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (Franco, Lowe, Manuel Margot, Tyler Glasnow and Brooks Raley), plus a handful of pre-arbitration players to round things out, that $42MM sum would push the Rays north of $70MM — a small payroll number for most organizations but one that’s more significant at Tropicana Field. The Rays ran out a franchise-record payroll in 2022 but still clocked in around $85-86MM, illustrating the relative heft of this year’s arbitration class.
As far as potential candidates for a change of scenery, Topkin unsurprisingly indicates that first baseman Ji-Man Choi “seems to be on the way out.” Given Choi’s projected $4.5MM salary, his proximity to free agency (next winter), and the fact that he’s seen his power dip while his strikeouts have risen over the past couple seasons, he stands out as a fairly obvious trade or non-tender candidate. The Rays regularly find low-cost platoon options at first base and designated hitter, which is how Choi landed in Tampa Bay in the first place. (Southpaw Ryan Yarbrough, who lost his rotation spot this year, is out of minor league options in 2023 and could earn more than $4MM in arbitration, seems like another clear candidate, in my view.)
More interestingly, Topkin suggests that the Rays will at least be open to the idea of trading Randy Arozarena this winter (though, to be clear, that’s a far cry from suggesting he’ll be shopped or that he’s likely to be moved). The 27-year-old is still controllable for another four seasons and is only projected to earn $4MM next season in the first of what’ll be four trips through arbitration as a Super Two player, so there shouldn’t be any urgency for the Rays to move him. At the same time, Arozarena could fetch some immediate MLB help in other areas if the Rays are either confident in their in-house outfield options or if they’re able to acquire some additional corner outfield help, be it via trade or free agency.
While subtractions from the arb class — be they via trade or free agency — will lower the club’s payroll, so will the expected departure of some veteran mainstays. Kiermaier’s $13MM club option will surely be declined in favor of a $2.5MM buyout after the perennial defensive standout saw his season truncated by July hip surgery. Catcher Mike Zunino, meanwhile, underwent surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. That pair accounted for a combined $19MM in salary this past season.
Neander noted that both players have been important to the Rays over the past several seasons and that the team will be open to discussing returns with each of them. Obviously, with Kiermaier and Zunino both less than three months into their rehab from notable surgeries, the status of their recovery will be paramount both with regard to the potential fit and price point in free agency. Both figure to draw interest from other clubs, too, considering their defensive excellence and the near-perennial scarcity of quality open-market options in center field and behind the plate.
A lot of roster turnover coming to the Rays this winter
And it is very much needed.
Let’s hope
Should we be thinking of Wander Franco as a very good not great player from now on? I know he was hurt a lot this year, but when he was healthy his numbers were in that broad category, rather than the superstar J-Rod type level. I admit I haven’t watched the Rays once other than the playoffs, so I honestly don’t know.
He is twenty-one years old. How about we give him a full season in the majors before rendering judgment?
This ^^^^
The Rays didn’t when they gave him 200 mil. It’s on the Rays for fans asking that question.
Fortunately, the FO doesn’t have kneejerk reactions to a half season riddled w injury, like a couple commenters here. It’s not a legit question, because we don’t know from two half seasons. Yes, the FO gave him that contract because he is a very good ball player who, in a short season at age twenty, showed he is special. It’s legit to just ignore his ability and his past simply because of a few tough months???
They do have knee jerk reactions over half of seasons. That’s why they gave him 200m. I’m not saying he’s bad, just not shown to be a 200 m player yet.
Even with the sentiment of giving him a full season before judgement, you could easily say that he’s as good if not better than J-Rod since he came up. Yes he hasnt played a full season yet because of injury, but he has played 151 games so far and has a 6.1 bWAR in that span. Thats pretty close to elite if you ask me, just not as flashy as a J-Rod. His calling card is plate discipline and doing the fundamentals of the game really well.
Wander has only been in the majors for 2 seasons now & is just 21yo. Between him & B. Lowe the Rays will have 2 of their top 4 batting order set (Diaz & Randy will round it out). So I see Neander improving spots #5-9 with a emphasis on a few better options for the bench as well.
I’m sure Franco is also going to generate more pop as he ages and gets into his prime. At his age—he should be in A ball somewhere.
Very impressive what we’ve seen so far.
Interesting to see who we bring in offensively. Pitching is fine and nice quality depth. Offense made it real hard to watch them this year. Time will tell but I have faith in neander to address the offense. Choi needs to go looks even worse now that they traded lowe to keep Choi
History tells me to expect little change. Neander talks tough, then fails to close. And the FO is cheap. They will try to find the next Harold Ramirez and hold their breath.
This again ^^^^
Go get a room you two.
Yeah because bringing in Harold was so horrible. Arguably our 2nd best hitter, shame that POBO is such a tough guy
I am giving him credit for Harold–it was somewhat lucky, but it is proof they go for the bargains. I liked Harold last year–as an Indian he always hit the ball hard; some Rays fans didn’t like him at first, I thought he’d do well–not as well as he did tho!
When these moves pan out, great. But they don’t always. I’d love a solid signing of a veteran who can really help… Simply pointing out they are historically cheap.
Sideline Redwine;
How many season tickets did you and your family and friends buy?
Luck? They do this year after year after year. How in the world is that luck
It’s called a budget & self control. Outside of Wander the Rays will not hinder themselves with $300+mil contracts. Outside of 2013 I have been buying a season ticket plan since 2008. In 2013 I still managed to go to 6 home games (when I moved back to Florida).
I see them in on Bellinger if he’s non tendered.
If they could have actually signed Freeman or even Rizzo last offseason, it would round out this lineup so much better. Choi is a bench bat/platoon guy on a bad team, not a starter for a playoff team.
I hate to say it but I also see this team as a possibility to sign Joey Gallo. I’m not really a fan of his but he’s a stathead guy and fits what TB would like in a player.
Agree. I think Gallo would prob do well in laid back Cash’s dugout.
Please no Gallo. They can do better imop.
Price tag will probably be too high on Gallo.
I think their upgrade at 1B will come via trade, not bidding on any free agents. They have another really full 40 man roster this offseason and will likely use it to clear up space and make more Paredes and Ramirez under the radar types of acquisitions.
@holecamel
Wasn’t Choi the starting 1B for Tampa Bay? Guess he actually is a starter for a playoff caliber team! Yes, 1B is a position that they could improve at, but give Choi his due.
Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, JJ Bleday and Dax Fulton for Arozarena. Who says no?
Dude … Randy is a 2 1/2 win player who’s 28 next year. I think you might get ONE of those players you list (although I have no idea who Dax Fulton is).
Stretch, That’s all?? At least include 12 or 13 more players for him.
The Rays do not need to trade offense for more pitching prospects when they already severely lack offense. Starting pitching, in the majors and minors, is their organizational strength currently. Plus, Bleday stinks imop.
I’d sell high on Arozarena too.
If you take a look at the advanced data—he’s been greatly outperforming the underlying.
Because the Marlins need more corner Outfielders?
Possibly trading their most offensive player, Aronzarena, to get more offensive? There’s a lot more LH offense to be had from Franco and B Lowe, just a couple more pieces. and the offense will be better next year. mid season acquisitions such as Peralta and Nelson Cruz haven’t done squat.
I see it. Randy can fetch prospects (!) and as much as I love him, he has his share of issues on the diamond.
Calling my shot now: Choi to the Pirates.
Gerrit Cole will help him pack and drive him to the airport.
Choi and Yarb are gone. I predicted at midseason they will trade Randy–too many bad moves on basepaths, and his salary is only going up…they will get what they can now. I absolutely expect Yandy gone too–I love both players, but that is how the Rays do business. I don’t expect MLB-ready players in return, and there will be no big signings. Neander talks tough…then he trades for a Peralta. RFO is cheap, always has been and always will be. They rely on getting “lucky” w players other orgs see little potential in (Harold this year, yandy a couple years back, Randy, Choi, et al).
You just stated the rays are gonna trade their 2 top hitters for no MLB ready talent…. You sir have to be the worst internet gm I’ve ever seen
Lol nope, just calling it as I see it. It’s the Rays way. I don’t want them to, I am predicting they will. There is a huge difference
Again another person suggesting rays trade 2 of their top 3 hitters to get better offensively lmao… WHATTTT
Not suggesting, predicting.
Why in the world do u hate the rays so much? They’ve made the playoffs the past 4 years… given I’m biased as a fan but ur hating on them like they’re the rockies organization like a complete dumpster fire or something there’s a reason the rest of the mlb hires there front office to similar positions.. they’re successful at what they Do. Not getting “lucky.”
They are my favorite team. I am predicting, per historical experience. Jeesh. Does anyone actually read the entire post??? Oops, sorr, forgot where I was lol
I think they could trade Randy or maybe even Yandy, but it’ll be for more fringe MLB-ready players like a Paredes or Siri-type. When they flip big names, they usually bring in MLB-ready talent along with prospects (Snell for Mejia, Adames for Rasmussen, Meadows for Paredes, Archer for Glasnow).
Come on Sox, Arozarena would look great in RF.
Doubt the rays will trade within the division unless they get a premium in return.
I’m thinking he means White Sox?
Could go either way—both need a RF
I doubt Bloom and Neander make a deal for Arozarena though. The 2 likely see players very similarly and if Neander is considering a dump—I’d suspect Bloom isn’t as high as some other GM’s may be.
Andrew vaughn and a whiteSox top prospect for randy. Do it
Not sure the ChiSox really have too many top prospects. But the Rays will pluck the one good one away.
That’s too much. Vaughn is going to be one hell if a hitter. Problem is, he’s just one of many 1st base types on the Sox.
Colston Montgomery.
“…and plainly indicated that the Rays cannot simply “ ‘stand pat and assume things will get better.’ ”
——-
Seems to be the opposite approach of the Blue Jays.
Rays are the ONU Team,,,needs to adapt to the cold weather…good it is sunny..95°
It’s time that Neander/Bendix get back to being the ballsy gamblers this franchise is used to being and get back to being the exciting team they’re fans are used to being. Arozarena, Perqlta, and Harold Ramirez need to go.
Harold needs to go??? Disagree about Randy too, tho I understand the argument. Peralta is a FA, he gone.
This FO is a scam. It’s all business to them. They are shooting for a playoff spot every year just to keep the TV fans watching but they have no intention of not making money. Choi is obvious. Yandy is getting too expensive but he is a mainstay. Margot’s salary replaces Kiermier. Randy may be around 1 more season maybe 1.5 seasons like Glasnow. This is our window, 2 years. They need to sign a couple of good hitters but they’ll probably be rebound candidates and hope for the best. They’re NOT in business to break even so I don’t expect them to go over $85 million. As a Rays fan I hope they sign a couple of good reliable bats but I’m not holding my breath. I’ve been a fan for 20 years and they run a business and the owner is a Mets fan so he is more disappointed they are out of the playoffs than the team he owns. The FO has its walking orders. They are casual baseball fans wall street types. They have no love for the Rays they want to look smart and have and I expect the usual off-season.
Prioraty #1 as always – bank $50mm net profit – they need a new stadium but then Stu wants it for free. Lol
After that rid anyone with high payroll.
Sign 1 vet starter 1 vet bullpen. Hoping both lefty lowe’s play next season that will likely be their solution with maybe a rebound year for a declining 1b lefty hitter.
That wrap for the rays.
Prioraty #1 as always – bank $50mm to net profit – they need a new stadium but then Stu wants it for free. Lol
After that rid anyone with high payroll.
Sign 1 vet starter 1 vet bullpen. Hoping both lefty lowe’s play next season that will likely be their solution with maybe a rebound year for a declining 1b lefty hitter.
That wrap for the rays.
Pretty sure that priority #1 in ANY for profit business is to make money. Many teams goals are to make money and win…in that order.
Randy, Siri, Margot and Lowe OF
Lowe part time DH
Infield other Lowe, Franco, Diaz, ranirez
With walls, Aranda and paredes subs include DH. The improvement vs righties will have to come from the two Lowes.
It is true, that they really need Josh Lowe to blossom next season in the majors. Whether he will or not is debatable. If he can cut down some on his SO’s, he should hit enough, and he walks enough already, to be a good hitter. These are the types of players an organization like the Rays need to have develop at the MLB level to, hopefully, remain competitive. Maybe, Mead can help next year too. If Lowe does develop into an above average regular, they need to just sign one good bat(probably a CI). Their starters and bullpen, minus mass injuries, should be fine, though the Baz TJS didn’t help.
I like the idea of giving Josh Lowe a shot and betting on a resurgence from Brandon Lowe. Short of trading for a major, power-hitting lefty bat, I’d be happy for the most part standing pat.
I think a quantity package of something like Aranda, Carson Williams, and Brujan for Sean Murphy is reasonable. Offensively, Murphy won’t move the needle for us, especially vs RHP (which, as the article states, is our major weakness), but he’s a well above-average bat for a catcher and even better defensively.
Then sign Michael Brantley. He would in effect replace Choi on the roster. He’s not the power hitter we’d hope for, but he’s an excellent contact hitter especially vs RHP and a high on-base guy.
With Brantley shuffling between DH and OF, Josh Lowe (RF) and Harold Ramirez (DH) would form a de facto platoon. And Siri and Margot would platoon in CF.
Zero chance they trade Carson Williams. 19 years old, already a top-100 prospect, can stick at SS but is probably the 3B of the future (Mead is going to end up at 1B or 2B; arm issues). Certainly not for a catcher who as you said won’t move the needle offensively. They’d just re-up Zunino for his defense in that case.
Josh Lowe is a mystery. They handed him a starting job this year and he flopped; the power he has shown in the minors hasn’t followed him to the majors. They need him to pan out; their plan for the next several seasons depended on him being a productive middle of the order bat.
And they handed Josh Lowe a starting OF spot this season and he flopped.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them bring back Zunino. I assume he’ll come cheap and he’s probably still a safe bet defensively, coming into his age 32 season. But he’s been a black hole offensively more often than not. I feel like Murphy has a much higher floor and he’s definitely available.
It’s funny that Lowe had just started to hit when he was demoted to work on his defense. In July he had a WRC+ of 124, and for the season vs RHP it was 113. But he was helpless vs LHP. They could do worse than a Lowe/Ramirez platoon (with Brantley filling in at each position as needed).
And that gets 2nd wild card and an early playoff exit. Your roster not bad, but need 2 good every day vets added to it. Conterus,confonto level players.ect.ect
Contreras is interesting partly because of his reverse splits. I feel like catching is different than other positions with regard to platooning but he could theoretically start vs most RHP and Mejia vs most LHP. And they’ve both been decent defensively; that could be a nice tandem.
Not saying the Rays don’t need another bat or two(hopefully Josh Lowe ends up one of them), but people need to remember a few things:
1) Arozarena had a good year, but came into the playoffs ice cold(1-33), which continued, unfortunately.
2) Brandon Lowe was absent due to injury.
3) Wander Franco had just come of the IL after two months with a wrist injury, which is a terrible injury for a batter.
4) Margot, also, had been injured for much of the season, and was hitting really well before the injury.
Plus, Zunino was hurt all year.
Those top 4 are, probably, the Rays four best hitters, so despite an offensive lineup that was far from great to begin with, it really hurt(as the playoffs attested too), but it may not be as dire as it looked at the end of the season.
Lowe had huge K issues in AAA. I think it’s pretty telling he didn’t get a call at the end of the year.
Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s one of the prospects they ship out to a bad org like they did with TX a few years back.
Solak for the little known Pete Fairbanks ended up being a heist.
The Rays are arguably the smartest FO in MLB.
Like most small market teams that have superior FO’s – Brewers, Guardians, Orioles; as well as the best organizations in ML – Astros and Dodgers (that execute like small market teams with a large budget) the Rays are not looking to pay retail by packaging up their good young prospects and players to pick up other teams players that had a good year in 2022. What all those organizations are looking for are undervalued players that have been mishandled by their current / most recent employers. They believe their coaching staff can bring out production from them in 2023….and possibly beyond. They know they’re not going to hit on all. They’ve had lists of potential additions throughout 2022. It’s what they’ve been doing successfully for years. Why would they change that approach now?
Quality organizations have a vision for the team they want to build. It may take more than a year. They have their requirements for the roles they want the 26 rostered players to fulfill. They go out and find those players. What they don’t do is think – hey, this guy looked pretty good in 2022, maybe we can use him to fill a hole in 2023….that’s what the losing organizations do.
I’m always up for a good lecture from Samuel.
For the right price Zunino is back. Kiermaier would have to accept a time share as a CF LHB platoon and COF defensive replacement.-LHB platoon, where he would compete with Josh Lowe for playing time. Doesn’t seem like a very Kiermaier position to be in and as much as he loves Tampa, there will be a team that offers him better than a 4th OF contract.
KK also needs to get off the turf at the Trop. Look what it ended up doing to Carl Crawford.
Don’t need a comma before “too” in the last paragraph.
You are incorrect, and you should stick to baseball, too!
grammarly.com/blog/comma-before-too/#:~:text=When%….
prowritingaid.com/grammar/1008090/Do-you-need-a-co…
Better look things up before you tell someone they’re wrong and should stick to baseball.
prowritingaid.com/grammar/1008090/Do-you-need-a-co…
You should bother to look up whether or not you’re correct before telling someone that they’re wrong and should stick to sports.
Thoughts on B. Lowe? It seems that every season he is either injured or in a slump for most of the season. Curious to hear other’s thoughts on selling high on him?
Selling high are you joking? Last post season awful, this season injured. His value is as “lowe” as it’s ever been
Lol I 100% agree with you. I guess what I was trying to say is would it be best to get rid of him now in an effort to get the most we possibly can for him?
MLBTR’s SP FA class looks strong this year. I would expect the Rays to be very active, looking at going in on another Vet SP with a good clubhouse reputation like Kluber, Morton, and Wacha in years past. Rays would be buying from a position of strength as they have good SP depth, have a good shot at a 5th post-season, and are seeing a lot of money come off the books. Rays could get in on bidding wars for Taillon, Eovaldi, Heaney, and Severino without needing to come away with any of them. On the odd chance Sonny Gray or Chris Bassitt have their offers declined, adding either of them would add some pitch diversity to the Rays SP arsenal (e.g. Gray’s curve, Bassit’s sinker). Taijuan Walker’s splitter is interesting, but Yonny Chirinos looks healthy and on his way back.
I agree with other commentators that Joey Gallo sounds like an FA candidate for the Rays. His power bat is missing in the Rays lineup and his cannon arm makes him useful as a RF pairing with cannon-armed Siri (or Kiermaier). He’s never been a contact guy and his speed will decline if it hasn’t already, so he’s worth it to the Rays more as a buy “very low” candidate. Given Rays pitching, they may very well gamble on a low in the order guy with pop,.
Michael Brantley would be an odd but interesting addition given his lack of power and need to be near 100% DH. He’d probably bat high in the order as an “on base guy” and cost young Rays reps while complicating workload management for players that need on field rest (but can DH). I’m guessing the Rays don’t come to a price point, as there may be other teams with deeper pockets and less to lose.
I suspect the Cubs might be willing to part with Ian Happ on the cheap. He’s Arb3 and projected to be expensive.
Seems like the Rays would check in on Andrew Benintendi out of due diligence as well, although he’s coming off one of his better years in MLB