With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR will be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position basis. We’ve already run through this winter’s crop of catchers, first basemen and second basemen. You can check out the full list of this offseason’s free agents here, but today we’ll take a deeper look at the options for teams in need of help at third base next.
As was the case when running through the second-base market, I’ll note that there are some star shortstops (e.g. Xander Bogaerts) who could technically be pursued as a third base option for a team that already has an entrenched shortstop, but we’ll save that group for the shortstop preview. There’s plenty of overlap with the second base market, as many of the free-agent options this winter are utility types who can capably handle either spot.
His Own Tier
- Nolan Arenado (32 years old next season)
Whether Arenado actually becomes a free agent is entirely up to him. He has five years and $144MM remaining on his contract but also has an opt-out clause at season’s end that would allow him to enter into the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Arenado chose not to exercise an opt-out after the 2021 season, but he’s now owed less money and is coming off perhaps the greatest season of his brilliant career. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote in September that Arenado was not planning to opt out, citing “friends” of Arenado, but Arenado himself has not made any declarations one way or another.)
Even if Arenado’s goal is to remain in St. Louis, there’s a good case for him to leverage that opt-out and a huge 2022 showing into an extension or larger deal with the Cards. Through 618 plate appearances, Arenado is hitting .292/.358/.533 with 30 home runs, 42 doubles, a triple and five steals (in eight tries). Arenado’s 11.5% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career (and lowest over a full 162-game season). He’s second among all Major League third basemen in both Defensive Runs Saved (19) and Outs Above Average (14), trailing only Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes in both categories.
The five years and $144MM remaining on Arenado’s contract average out to $28.8MM annually — a number that, at this point, is a ways shy of where the game’s top position players are paid on an annual basis. Because next year will be his age-32 season, it’s hard to imagine him securing anything longer than a six-year deal in free agency, but as Freddie Freeman illustrated last year, it’s possible for a free agent to secure six years at that age. Arenado, of course, is coming off an even better season this year than Freeman was last winter. He’s been worth 7.2 fWAR and 7.8 rWAR — both of which are personal bests in what increasingly looks to be a Hall of Fame-caliber career.
There’s no guarantee that Arenado reaches free agency, but if he does, it’s an easy call to project a larger guarantee over five years — and perhaps over an even lengthier term than that.
A Distant Second Place
- Brandon Drury (30)
Drury had a rough patch to begin his tenure with the Padres following a deadline swap, but he’s been swinging it just fine over the past month. Dating back to Aug. 29, Drury owns a .288/.338/.575 batting line in 80 plate appearances, and he’s logged a collective .263/.320/.497 batting line on the season. His minor league deal with the Reds was one of the best of the season by any team.
Suitors in free agency may view Drury’s 2022 campaign with some skepticism, given his disastrous 2018-20 run between the Yankees and Blue Jays (.205/.254/.346 in 582 plate appearances). However, Drury hit in a small sample with the Mets last year and has been generally productive in 2022, save for an ugly first three weeks or so in San Diego. Since Opening Day 2021, he’s at .265/.318/.494 with 32 home runs, 36 doubles and two triples in 645 plate appearances. One would think that playing a big slate of games at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park has padded his stats, but only 12 of his 28 homers came in Cincinnati.
Defensively, third base has been Drury’s most frequent position both in 2022 and, more narrowly, in his broader career. He’s been a scratch defender there, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average, and Ultimate Zone Rating generally agrees. Defensive Runs Saved (-3) has him a bit below average, and that’s generally been the case throughout his career. Still, Drury isn’t any kind of glaring liability at the hot corner, and he has 1436 MLB innings at second base, 965 between the outfield corners and 361 at first base. At the very least, he looks like a super-utility player, but Drury has hit enough to be considered a potential starter at second or third, as well.
Utility Players
- Aledmys Diaz (32)
Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .248/.294/.415 line in 2022 is a bit down from the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties. Third base isn’t Diaz’s primary position, but he’s still tallied 758 innings there in his career.
- Jace Peterson (33)
Primarily a second baseman until the current campaign, Peterson has played mostly third base in Milwaukee this season and posted sensational defensive marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 6 Outs Above Average in just 605 innings. The lefty-swinging Peterson has revived his career with a solid three-year run in Milwaukee, hitting .241/.339/.377 (100 wRC+) with a hefty 12.4% walk rate, 16 homers and 23 steals in 684 plate appearances. He’s even handled lefties well in a small sample over the past two seasons, although a career .217/.289/.282 output against them still suggests he’s best deployed against righties only.
- Donovan Solano (35)
A hamstring strain cost Solano more than two months, but since being activated, he’s batted .284/.338/.384 with four homers and 15 doubles in 293 trips to the plate. Solano has been quite good at home, in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, and below-average on the road, but this is the fourth consecutive season he’s headed for at least league-average offense overall. Dating back to his 2019 resurgence with the Giants, “Donnie Barrels” is hitting .301/.350/421 in 1068 plate appearances. He’ll turn 35 in December, though, and his defensive grades at second, third and shortstop in recent years are all lacking. He’s posted excellent numbers in 190 innings as a first baseman this year, however (5 DRS, 3 OAA).
Depth Options and Rebound Hopefuls
- Ehire Adrianza (33): A switch-hitter with considerable experience all over the infield and in both outfield corners, Adrianza doesn’t hit particularly well from either side of the dish and doesn’t have great defensive marks anywhere. He’s batted .215/.302/.320 in 415 plate appearances since Opening Day 2020.
- Charlie Culberson (34): Culberson torments lefties, is generally regarded as a strong clubhouse presence and has played every big league position except center field and catcher. Since a career-high 12 homers in 2018, however, he’s slashed just .248/.291/.384 in 542 plate appearances.
- Matt Duffy (32): A regular at third base with the Giants and Rays earlier in his career, Duffy has long been touted as a strong defensive player. Injuries have hampered him extensively in recent years, limiting him to 730 plate appearances over the past four seasons. He’s hit reasonably well in that time: .267/.338/.346.
- Maikel Franco (30): Once one of the game’s top prospects, Franco never developed into the slugger the Phillies hoped. With just a .233/.278/.384 slash since 2019 (including .229/.255/.342 with the Nats this year) and woeful defensive grades, the 30-year-old Franco is likely looking at another minor league deal this winter.
- Marwin Gonzalez (34): The veteran switch-hitter has survived on the Yankees’ roster all season despite hitting just .180/.255/.308 in 195 plate appearances. Gonzalez’s career year in 2017 helped him land a two-year deal with the Minnesota, and since the second season of that contract he’s since cratered with a .197/.273/.310 slash across 701 plate appearances.
- Phil Gosselin (34): The journeyman utility player has experience at every infield spot and in the outfield corners. He hit .149/.182/.176 in 77 plate appearances this year but did record a respectable .259/.316/.371 slash in 475 plate appearances from 2020-21.
- Jonathan Villar (32): Villar hit 24 homers and swiped 40 bags with the O’s in 2019, struggled through a dismal showing between Miami and Toronto in 2020, and rebounded nicely with the 2021 Mets. The pendulum swung back in the other direction this year, as he’s been released by both the Cubs and Angels while hitting a combined .208/.260/.302. At his best, Villar is a switch-hitter with some power and difference-making speed, but he’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his career.
Veterans with Club Options
- Hanser Alberto (30): Alberto’s one-year deal with the Dodgers contained a $2MM club option and a $250K buyout. Los Angeles will all likely opt for the buyout after Alberto has batted .234/.248/.357 in 157 trips to the plate. Alberto has solid defensive ratings around the infield and hits lefties well — career .322/.340/.448 hitter in 581 plate appearances — giving him some bench appeal. His recent poor showings will be hard to overlook, though.
- Josh Harrison (35): Pretty much everything I wrote about Harrison last week in the second base preview still holds up. He’s had a tough week at the plate, so his offense has now fallen to slightly below average, by measure of wRC+ (96). Still, a .256/.317/.361 output with six homers, 18 doubles and a pair of triples is decent production for an affordable veteran who’s turned in plus defensive marks at both second base and third base this season. Harrison is also plenty experienced in the outfield corners, and after a rough showing in 2018-19 has been a slightly above-average hitter over the life of three seasons. He has a $5.625MM option with a $1.5MM buyout, and a net $4.125MM price seems plenty reasonable. The White Sox, though, are already facing a potential record payroll next year and might want more offense than Harrison can provide, even though his overall price tag is eminently reasonable.
- Evan Longoria (37): Given the Giants’ overall results this year and the amount of time Longoria has spent on the injured list, it feels safe to say he’s likely having a better season than many realize. He’s not the Longo of old, but even at age 36, he’s turned in a .244/.315/.451 batting line with 14 homers and 13 doubles in just 298 plate appearances. Longoria is striking out more than ever (27.9%) and is no longer the elite defender he was in his 20s. He’s still making tons of hard contact and hitting for power, though. The Giants hold a $13MM option with a $5MM buyout, and the Giants may prefer that buyout as they look to get younger. Longoria discussed the possibility of retirement in an interview with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle earlier this summer. It’ll be a family decision on whether he’ll continue playing at age 37, but given his huge output against lefties and his overall batted-ball profile, there ought to be interest in the veteran slugger even if it’s in a more reduced role.
- Justin Turner (38): A Dodgers fixture who hasn’t stopped hitting even as his 38th birthday approaches (November), Turner has a $16MM club option with a $2MM buyout. That could’ve vested automatically based on MVP voting, but that’s not going to happen — solid as Turner’s season has been. In 525 trips to the plate, he’s hit .280/.352/.443 with 13 long balls — good for a 125 wRC+. The Dodgers have recently picked up the options of a few players and tacked on a new club option for 2024, and given Turner’s consistency perhaps they’ll look at doing the same here. Turner is still a very good hitter, but his defensive ratings at third base have dipped and he’s spent nearly half his time at designated hitter in 2022.
Already can’t wait for WBC and ST 2023
Already booked my Airbnb so I can catch a WBC game or two at spring training.
World Basketball Championship?
World Baseball Classic.
There will be pool play in Phoenix in mid March, meaning you can catch both spring training games and WBC games if you time the trip correctly. I did this a few years ago and had a blast.
10 4. That sounds great. I’m planning on taking the family. Thanks!
It would be so awesome for me to see a WBC game if it lands on my birthday in mid March. I haven’t been to a ST game since the Cubs and White Sox played 2 games at Cashman Field in Las Vegas. Which was just an awful field
I can see the Dodgers keeping Turner.
I can’t really see Arenado leaving St.Louis as other than maybe LA there is no where he can go that gives him a better chance at the playoffs every year.
Longoria’s got to be done. Unless someone sees enough left in his bat to maybe use him as a DH.
Its a sharp drop after that. No one should expect anything close to the video gane level production Brandon Drury put up this season and the rest are all bench pieces
Arenado will sign with the Nationals if they pay him lol
No, Arenado left the Rockies so that he could win. He definitely won’t be going to the Nationals.
He won’t be going to the Nats because they’re not going to be the highest bidder. If they were he would.
Then want to be traded to a winning team.
Arenado left the Rockies ?? Pretty sure he was traded.
If he opts out -he won’t be headed back to stl as they won’t pay him.
Arenado forced the Rockies hand by having them trade him. No better team to get traded too than to a team with a winning tradition and is competing for playoffs year in and year out. Arenado isn’t going anywhere
If he can get more money he will.
If they don’t up his deal, I have a hard time believing he’d stay.
Yeah I believe that you should always follow the money in cases like this. Money > winning.
Coop… If the Dodgers up the money and the Cards don’t pony up, he’d get both.
@fisher. Arenado didn’t have the leverage to force the Rockies to trade him – the Rockies just made a completely stupid, in fact one of the dumbest trades ever. And Arenado surely didn’t force nor have the leverage to be traded to a contender.
Cards will pay. He brings in fans.
They’ll loose the 25 mil Rockies are paying and then have to come up w additional money. There’s no chance he stays
Rick Arredondo?
True, but I don’t personally believe he is leaving St Louis.
In Arenados case winning and chasing a championship is far more important than getting that last dollar.
No doubt on JT. He’s pretty close to ideal as a DH. He can still hit and play position and is also the team captain, and a fan favorite. So what’s not to like? At least 50-50 Alberto’s option also gets picked up. It really isn’t fair to judge him on one sub-par season at the plate especially when he’s played so irregularly. The Human Bobblehead has also pitched a remarkable 11 innings (so far) and done quite well.
Feel like pulling out some Motley Crüe after reading this list
Live Wire
More like Home Sweet Home, where most of these players will be after being non-tendered and forced into ‘early’ retirement.
There have to be some teams out there with a young starting pitcher to trade that needs a young 3B (or young 1B / DH) – here’s lookin’ at you, Brewers.
It appears that Alec Bohm has used up all the patience a team and it’s fans can muster up for a player that can surely hit, but is terrible with fundamentals, and consistently makes mental mistakes at bat, in the field, and on the bases. Of course the White Sox would love to have him – he’d fit right in.
The Phillies have 3-4 guys on their 26 man now that can play 3B…4-5 if we count Segura. Bohm is more attractive than anyone on that list as Arenado isn’t going anywhere.
Phil’s should trade Hoskins somewhere and have Bohm play first. I don’t see the Brewers trading for him or Bohm. They’re probably do something like sign Wil Myers to replace McCutchen and possibly Longoria if the Giants buy him out.
Why would the Phillies trade one of their best hitters who doesn’t even make that much money to play a worse hitter at a premium offensive position?
For other needs like pitching or bullpen. He’s a DH only type and they already have Schwarber and Castellanos on the roster. Not to mention Harper might need days to DH for a bit depending on how his arm feels next year. Plus this would appease the fanbase who hate Hoskins more than the entire Braves and Mets organizations.
That’s proving my point. A RH DH power bat is just not that valuable on the market. That’s why you want to trade him. He is not going to bring back a pitcher worth being in the rotation. He has far more value to he Phillies than whatever he brings back via trade.
And to your Fans hating Hoskins point… if you start thinking like the fans, you start sitting with them.
The idea that Bohm is somehow magically good at 1b has been proven false multiple times. That being said, trading Hoskins allows them to hide Schwarber or Caatellanos at first. Hoskins is underrated in Philly, but depending on the return, a trade can make sense. I’d keep Bohm at 3rd though. He’s improved there.
@VPH,
With last evening’s win, it’s good to see you’ve come down off the ledge. I was worried about you a few days ago.
VonPurpleHayes;
I agree that Bohm is not magically good at 1B. While he’s improved at 3B, he’s still bad.
Two things that lost my patience (and I think among other will lose Dombrowski’s):
1. The “slide” where he hurt his hand and missed a few weeks. He went head first into 2B, started his slide too early, put his chest down got his feet down, but his body jerked up on impact and his center was up in the air. To try to balance himself he put his hands down, and it’s lucky he didn’t break the right one. I’m not sure he even made it to the bag.
2. I’ve seen him countless times out of position at 3B after a ball got by him. This is sort of amazing as his responsibility as a 3B is simply to cover the bag (1B has far more responsibilities). When ball gets by him to his left he stands there around the SS area watching the play….meanwhile if there are runners on base one of them may be heading for 3B. Upon the ball getting by him to the OF a professional 3B immediately returns to 3B in the event that someone will make a throw. In the same vein, I’ve seen him out of balance when throws are made to him at 3B with a runner coming in either from a batted ball or from the catcher going after a base stealer.
His baseball IQ is awful. He doesn’t seem ready and in position to do anything but hit.
Kevin Long has gotten something out of Edmundo Sosa. He can play 3B far better than Bohm and may well hit better than him. Bryson Stott can play it better but he’s an excellent SS. I believe that Matt Vierling and Nick Maton can play it better than him. Throw out the depth chart. They can use 3B as a revolving position in 2023.
Bohm is very attractive
“So I’m ugly. So what? I never saw anyone hit with his face.” – Yogi Berra
I sometimes wonder how many of the so-called “Yogi-isms” were actually his. Stuff gets attributed to him that he never said. But I believe he did say that one. Nice.
Barry Bohm?
Third base is very thin per usual. Arenado could be a target for the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox, which is always scary when those 3 names get in a bidding war. Donaldson isn’t good, Turner isn’t getting any younger, and Devers is destined to move away from 3B with his defensive ability. Red Sox are also due to spend. Arenado could very well end up back in STL, but he could definitely drive his price up by testing the market.
I’d like to see the Cubs sign Correa and move Hoerner to 3B. Everyone keeps talking about moving Hoerner to 2B if the Cubs sign a SS, but he has clearly proven he can handle SS, so I think he’d be fine at 3B. I really don’t like Trea Turner on a long term deal. Players that have speed as their strongest tool don’t age well with long term deals. Carl Crawford, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes – it seems like once age 30 hits, things get ugly quick.
Yankees don’t have Arenado money when they have to sign Judge
Yankees have as much money as they want to spend, as always.
The Yankees have more than enough money to sign Judge, Arenado, deGrom and Ohtani and still make a profit if they wanted to but they refuse to pay that much money in salaries and CBT penalties since the Yankees are the Steinbrenner family’s piggy bank. Why spend most of the team’s baseball revenue on the team when they can spend 40-50% of it, field a solid playoff team and then pocket the remaining $250M+ every season? Winning a World Series doesn’t generate enough revenue to justify Hal overspending just to win a title and negatively impact the family budget. Getting to the ALCS produces enough extra revenue and fan interest to keep the stadium mostly full (except for those ridiculously priced seats behind home plate) and keeps the massive TV revenue rolling in. Hal hopes he can back into a championship or two, but he has no desire to outspend the Dodgers or the Mets just to have a better chance of winning a title.
First priority for the Yankees this winter is obvious: do what it takes to keep Aaron Judge. The Bombers are not going to be so daft as to sign a staff ace from the LOLmets.
Is it possible to negatively affect the family Steinbrenner budget?
The Yankees get 135m in tv revenue. You think that covers a 500 million payroll. Yankee fans come up with the stupidest crap sometimes.
This is why the SS market being so flush this off-season is less of an issue. At least one of those guys will be a 3B or the internal SS will slide over to 3B.
“…. or the internal SS will slide over to 3B.”
Jbigz44;
Yes, this is a common misperception.
Unfortunately MLB on the field is not computer baseball. SS and 3B are radically different positions. A SS stands upright and can watch the ball from the pitchers hand to the plate. A 3B crouches down and stares at the plate. 3B is a reaction position – coming in for a bunt or topper, taking a step or two on a ball hit to the right or left of them, often having to dive and bounce up to throw.
If a SS is going to “slide over” it’s best doing that to 2B – a position similar to SS with less responsibilities and different angles that can be learned.
Many veteran SS’s that tried 3B – particularly when they were older and their reflexes slowed down – were not very successful at it. There’s nothing automatic about moving there, it depends on the person.
I’m not sure about 2B having “less responsibilities” – don’t they usually turn the double play?
Defense at 2B is important for that whole “defense up the middle” concept; one that I agree with. And being able to turn the DP is critical. But 2B has far fewer chances than SS, and guys that wind up at 2B are usually guys whose arm proves less than adequate for making the throw from deep in the hole. Defense at 2B, though important is much less critical than it is at SS.
@samuel
Sure. Obviously it’s not an automatic but plenty of guys have slid around the diamond. Some of these guys have been 3B in their professional career.
Plenty of examples. Why I said one of—one of the FA’s will do it. Or they’ll slide their current SS over. Depends on the team and player. But with a weak crop of 3B that will certainly be considered
@samuel
Also you talk up Mateo all the time. So I’m sure you must be aware of Urias. He is now a great defensive 3B but was a horrendous SS.
I personally believe Correa would be a tremendous 3B too. Bogey already has pro experience there. Think it’s very logical that one of those guys could be playing there next season.
But if not—might see whatever SS the team has slide over. Been done quite a few times.
How could you not like Trea Turner on a long term deal? So what if speed is one of his strong suits. Have you not noticed that his strong suits are basically every offensive category? Of all the players available or possibly available Trea Turner is the one guy I’d want. Maybe in a few years he doesn’t steal close to 30 bags but so what. Mike Trout forgot what stolen bases even are and everyone still considers him a top ten bat and worthy of his $37 million a year deal. Turner will be a steal compared to that and he plays SS and much closer to 162 than Trout. Oh and he’s 29 years old too and isn’t showing signs of wear.
Mystery… I couldn’t agree more. Turner would be my first choice as well. And I would add that Hoerner, who could probably handle the hot corner defensively, lacks the power that goes with that spot. He’s much better suited for second base.
But he’s proven he can play short, and at a very high level.
I love Hoerner I love everything he brings to the game. He’s got some pop, some speed, and some glove. As for Turner if you don’t like Trea Turner’s game you don’t like baseball it’s that simple. He is the best all around hitter in the game and gets zero credit. Not many players do it all like that. Michael Harris looks to be that type.
But speed isn’t Trea’s strongest asset – that would be his hit tool. He is a terrific hitter and that ages just fine.
Trea Turner is a career .302/.355/.487 with a 122 OPS+…. That’s hardly a speed only player. Crawford and Reyes don’t even sniff Turner and from ages 31-35 Rollins had 15+ steals every year while a league average bat AND a gold glove. Just an L take.
Justin Turner has always been a good hitter. He also has a track record of starting off cold and ending the season hot just like this year. But this year was exceptionally cold and for a longer time frame.. As much as I like JT and what he means to the team, I don’t see him getting $16M next year.
There have been rumors about Arenado and the Dodgers for many years but I think the likelihood of LA resigning Trea Turner is higher.
Justin Turner is worth a 2 or 3 year deal imo
Not anymore
He has 2 war. That is an average mlb starter. Why would you sign a 37 year old average player to a 3 year deal?
He’ll be back on a one-year deal IMO. They also value his clubhouse leadership.
Never realized Villar has that many stolen bases. Pretty surprising being that he’s a bit pudgy. Underrated offensively in my opinion. He has flown under the radar for most of his career. Was decent with the Orioles
Was awful with the Cubs tho. As the author states, he’s very inconsistent. Consistently inconsistent.
If Arenado stays in, Then that’s an ugly group of FA’s. I guess the Cubs will have to look elsewhere for a 3B.
I like Bogaerts at third if he’s willing to move and typically as long as they are getting paid, they are willing to play anywhere.
The rumors of the Cubs interest in a top tier short stop could suggest that they may be willing to play Nico at third and Madrigal at second to kick off the season with Wisdom manning first base unless/until the Cubs have seen enough with Mervis. Then the Cubs may readjust positioning accordingly.
It will be interesting to see what the Cubs are thinking about the roster, I believe they think they can get power out of Mervis and Canario. Davis would need a really strong showing in the winter league and spring to be considered an option at center which means they may sign a defensive minded cf on a one year deal or if Canario hits well enough in the spring they may consider moving happ back. I think they could look at Castro or Hedges on a one year back role to Gomes.
Id love Bellinger on a one year deal… he’s a non-tender candidate so if I’m the Cubs I’d attempt to work out a trade for him, maybe try to remember-sign him to a second year and ride that tide with the new shift rules.
If you can get belly and one of Turner/Correa/Bogaerts, the Cubs could surprise the league with their pitching. Suzuki missed a lot of time but hopefully he adjusts to the league, Happ I’d solid, the Cubs could and have done a lot worse than a Wisdom/Mervis platoon at first, Hoerner and Madrigal providing consistent contact (yes I believe Madrigal will bounce back)
Put down the Crack Pipe.
I’m just saying…
Right… apparently you didn’t noticed the Cubs 56% winning percentage during the second half.
The have a ton of money to spend with a ton of pitching depth
They always have a ton of Money to spend but they dont spend it on talent,they spend it on upgrading the facility, buying up up all the buildings around Wrigley, marketing and advertising.
I’m just saying…
2nd Half playing for nothing.
They do hustle and fight. They play hard but they dont have the talent to compete in a meaningful wildcard race.
Suzuki and Stroman was all marketing. Asian and Woke Nation. I just dont see it. They are in it to make money, not compete every year. Compete every other decade,yes.
That’s a ridiculous statement when The Cubs, since new ownership has taken over, have paid the luxury tax twice, and have run franchise record payrolls and they made the playoffs 5/6 years before re-tooling.
The Cubs also spent a ton of money (on bad players) last off-season as potential flip candidates/stop gaps.
You can say Suzuki and Stroman were marketing strategies, I can ignore the racist undertones of that statement, or you could look at Hoyer trying to capitalize on a good opportunity. Stroman’s contract made him a good flip candidate and Suzuki has a ton of potential if he can build on this season and continue his adjustments.
The roster is full of good but not great players. They need a couple great players which they openly rumored to be “in on” this off-season.
I do also like how you disregard the cubs second half of the season, pretending like the pitching hasn’t taken a giant step forward.
100% Stroman is great w social media.the kids. Wokeness. Suzuki is from Japan ?? I think. He’s of Asian decent. Go snip your balls off you weiney
Why would you trade for him? Then you are paying arbitration numbers that he isn’t even close to being worth.
Unfortunately, they seem to like Wisdom. And while we all love ‘smarts’, this one isn’t valuable.
There is a lot to like about Wisdom especially with the new shift rules taking place next season.
Wisdom isn’t a “franchise cornerstone” by any means but most rosters could use a guy like him, he has tremendous power plays all four corner spots and mashes left handed pitching.
Villar was terrible at the dish in 2022. Arenado not going anywhere.
Arenado might well not leave St Louis (that would be my prediction too) but he’s almost certainly opting out or extending for more money. If he doesn’t he’s leaving at least $45m on the table. Interesting little side angle is if he opts out the Rockies are off the hook for the final $15m they owe the Cardinals, so they have a pretty good incentive to extend him before he opts out.
Prsr Rockies are off the hook if STL extends him too. Could be wrong tho.
They are off the hook for only 5 million dollars if he opts out, which he almost assuredly will.
Timing could not be better for Drury, at 30-yo with solid offensive numbers, just below average defense at the hot corner and the ability to play multiple positions, he may be in position for a multi-year contract.
@Raul – I agree with you 100%. Drury had to sign a minor league deal just to make it to the majors this season and he parlayed that into a career season at the plate. Some team like Miami, Colorado, Detroit or Milwaukee will sign him to a multi year contract at $10M+ per season based on his 2022 output, but they forget that he was borderline unplayable for a considerable amount of time from 2018-2021. I’m a firm believer that water eventually finds its level and some team is going to be burnt on a multi-year Drury deal. With that said, Drury couldn’t have timed his career season any better. If Arenado does not opt out and Xander does not want to move to 3B, Drury easily becomes the best 3B free agent by a wide margin so he’s going to get paid very well by some team. Drury is a good guy, plays hard and is willing to play anywhere to help his team, but I have a feeling his is gong to revert to his previous performance levels. I truly hope he proves me wrong.
In the bad years you refer to, Drury had health problems, particularly crippling migraines, a broken hand, and a concussion. If he’s finally healthy, there’s no reason for him to repeat those struggles.
I really hope Drury stays with the Pads. Dude’s a gamer, can play 6 positions, and his bat is solid. Guys like him are rare who can be plugged in to cover injuries, etc, and don’t lose much. Personally, I’d be good with him even starting at 1B next year if Bell leaves.
Is he a solid clubhouse presence? That’s something even the most die hard analysts are beginning to realize – can’t be measured, but chemistry is important.
Drury should be fine next year. His above average stats should hold. He returned to his old batting form and has found his original stance again (thanks to his dad). He should be a great addition next year and I too hope Padres keep him to play 1B. Let Bell (Hosmer 2.0) go and see if he can find himself, especially with the shift ban.
mlb.com/news/brandon-drury-goes-back-to-basics-for…
And to think that Boston might actually let Xander Bogaerts walk this season and Raffy Devers walk after the 2023 season as well. Imagine what they would be paid as 3B if they were free agents this season? (Xander may find out shortly if he agrees to move to 3B). What a disaster the Red Sox organization has become! While they have some promising young talent in Bello, Casas and possibly Mata who can contribute next season, their best young prospects are still 2+ years away and none of them, outside of Mayer, are even close talent wise to the top 5-6 young players and pitchers Baltimore has / will be adding to their roster in 2022 & 2023.
Boston needs to re-sign both Xander and Raffy and add significant talent to their bullpen and starting rotation if they want to remain remotely competitive in the AL East. Even when all of their youngsters arrive, there will still be open spots on the team for veteran stars so why not keep these two who have proven they can perform in Boston? One will move to DH eventually but they need that with JDM leaving this season.
Since there are no articles on the hapless Red Sox, I thought I’d drop this in the most relevant article on the site.
If the front office thinks they can only keep one, which do they keep? Even Boston only has so much money and, as you said, they have multiple holes to fill.
I think Boston isn’t in as bad as shape as some others on this board. Mostly because John Henry is always willing to spend to field a competitive roster. As an owner, he hates it when his team loses and they typically rebound pretty well. I also think Martinez, Eovaldi and to a lesser extent Bogaerts being free agents is a good thing for Red Sox. They weren’t really bad contracts (not at all for Xander) but their production this year didn’t match their salaries. Reallocating that money to Devers and some younger talent is going to be a win for the Sox.
The two contracts I didn’t love, Story and Sale will be wait and see deals. We all know how good Sale can be when healthy but I don’t think Story was ever going to be a good fit in Boston offensively. Outside of his power surge in may he was down right awful with the bat.
Why would they re-sign a bad defensive SS who doesn’t want to move off the position when they already have one of the best shortstop prospects in the game?
Can’t imagine why Marwin Gonzalez would have such a huge 2017 that he’s never been remotely close to duplicating.
Lol
Only came out here to pick up a cupcake?
The Tigers are playing Kreidler, Clemens, and both Castro’s at 3B lately, giving credence to the projected non-tender of Candelario. He’s one season away from leading the AL in doubles, and plays a solid 3B. Someone will get a nice rebound candidate.
Freeman’s 6 year $162m contract has $57m deferred. It gets paid out between 2028-2040.
That noted Arenado’s current contract has a significantly higher net present value than Freeman’s. Freddie’s deal is Bobby Bonilla redux. The Dodgers gave him that 6th year to pad his ego and by agreeing to the deal he got the 6th year but will make way less real world money than the $135m over 5yrs ATL offered him. Like, if Freddie won the Powerball and took the Atlanta deal it’d be the lump sum and the Dodger’s deal would be the annuity/ paid out every year for 20 years.
Deferred money is real money. Meanwhile, he’s banking $90M in the first five years of the contract. So, in your mind, it’s better to bank $45M more in the first five years than to be patient and bank $72M more over the next 14 years?
You’ve heard of this thing called inflation? It’s kind of a thing fyi. Besides dodging inflation by taking the money upfront you can invest the money and grow it.
In 1988 the Dodgers signed Kirk Gibson to a 3 year $4.5m deal, Assuming it was $1.5m per year the inflation/ buying power calculator says that $1.5m then is the equivalent of $3.775m in todays money. So divide the $1.5m by the $3.775m and you’ll see the 1988 money today is worth 61% less than it was at the time.
But the difference in the inflation rate between 2026. the fifth year, and 2027, the sixth year, isn’t likely to be so extreme as to substantially diminish the value of the $15M he’s being paid in that sixth year, which will bring his payout up to $105M, or just $30M less than the total payout offered by the Braves. And the total package offered by the Dodgers is 27% more than the Braves’ package. That’s a lot of money to leave on the table.
Inflation right now is abnormally high because of Putin’s war and the widespread ripple effects across the global economy. If that war is resolved, it’s likely to reduce inflationary pressures considerably. But even in normal times, people invest in annuities for one reason — the payout is guaranteed. Over the shorter term, investing in the market can bring greater returns; but annuitants forgo the opportunity for higher gains in exchange for insured returns. And an annuity that pays $4M a year for eight years and $5M a year for another five years is a pretty good investment — especially when you’ve already earned $105M that you can invest in the market as much as you want.
I’m not a fan of either team (nor an anti-fan, for that matter), but it seems to me that some Braves fans need to get over the impulse to blame Freddie for taking more money to play for a juggernaut team on the West Coast. The Braves ended up with a coveted first baseman who’s younger and cheaper and no slouch himself. They should be content that they’re also in a position to win their division, seems to me.
Putin’s war… LOL. It’s those greedy capitalists industries!!! Making billions of dollars while you struggle to fill your tank.
FJB
Probably just a coincidence that the oil companies have had their most profitable quarters ever this year.
Sure. The greedy capitalist industries forced Putin to attack Ukraine — again — in his delusional attempt to restore the Soviet empire.
Read his screed all about it issued on July 12, 2021, entitled “On the historic unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” a contorted specimen of pseudo-mystical pretense and historical revisionism rationalizing his naked ambition.
Few Americans probably know much about his crackpot adviser Prof. Aleksandr Dugin, although he was interviewed on “60 Minutes” and many became at least remotely aware of him recently when his daughter was killed in a car bombing in Moscow.
His geopolitical writings are required reading in the Russian military’s officers corps, The Academy of the General Staff, and they’re being translated into English by the wife of American white supremacist Richard Spencer, to whom Dugin sent a recorded speech entitled “To My American Friend in Our Common Struggle” to be played on Spencer’s now-defunct web blog.
In the ’80s, Dugin belonged to an explicitly Satanist cult in Moscow called the Yuzhinsky Circle, where he studied the writings of “metaphysical philosophers” of the Third Reich.
If you want an idea of how insane Dugin is, consider these quotes from his writings:
“The end of days should come, but it will not come by itself. This is a task, it is not a certainty. It is an active metaphysics. It is a practice.”
“The meaning of Russia is that through the Russian people will be realized the last thought of God, the thought of the End of the World. . . Death is the way to immortality. Love will begin when the world ends.”
What do you suppose he’s talking about?
Just the kind of guy you want in the ear of a homicidal dictator armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons.
And yet, somehow, inflation has affected the entire global economy. How did “dem shutdowns” cause 10.5% inflation in Austria, 10.0% inflation in Germany, 9.9% inflation in the U.K., 9.8% inflation in Sweden, 9.3% inflation in Iceland, 9.0% inflation in Spain . . . etc.? All higher than ours.
Better review your news sources. If they told you that nonsense, you’re being lied to.
Do you think the US has the only liberal leaning government in they world. Those countries shut down their economies like morons too. You do realize inflation started well before Putin’s war. Maybe you should take your own advice and get better news sources then CNN or MSNBC. Russia has invaded multiple countries in the last ten years and never has inflation resulted across the world.
The U.K., with 9.9% inflation, has been ruled by the conservative Tories for years. Hungary’s right-wing government under Orban has 15.6% inflation. Poland’s right-wing government under Duda has 17.2% inflation, Serbia’s right-wing government under Vučić has 13.2% inflation, etc.
Your analysis doesn’t jibe with the facts.
So world wide inflation was caused by the liberal governments, but not the conservative ones? One might also question your calling the UK government liberal. The conservatives have been in power there for a long time now.
Hungary, with one of the most right-wing governments in Europe, has their highest rate of inflation, since 1998. It ‘s now at 15.6%.
Your simple answers, like it’s the dem’s fault, to the complex issues like global inflation make it seem like maybe you should expand your source for news beyond Fox. They’re the outliers among a plethora of other news providers.
Might be a good idea to see your doctor as soon as possible b/c it’s quite obvious you’re suffering from a traumatic brain injury like Hershel Walker.
no, FMZ17 (after all, if you morons hadn’t spread covid, 2 million of you wouldn’t have died from it. congrats on voting for a christian terrorist, though, that takes guts, i guess).
the fact 1 got 5 upvotes shows just how terrible republicans are and should be aborted on site.
so wait, inflation in the country the cons gave a 5 minute standing ovation at CPAC is higher than america’s?
and that’s who the cons in here idolize?
wow, inbreeding really does make them short bus material, no wonder they drink their own bodily fluids daily to “own” the libs.
I love how you morons have control of all government branches and find excuses how it’s everyone’s fault but your own. Take accountability for your pour decisions. Because you watch propaganda news sources doesn’t mean everyone else should. I get my news from multiple sources and you all assuming republicans only get their news from Fox News show how naive and gullible you are. I guess that’s why you all elected the most mentally incompetent president in history.
“Take accountability for your pour decisions.”
I do. I always drink responsibly.
“I guess that’s why you all elected the most mentally incompetent president in history.”
Buddy, you elected a guy who told you to inject disinfectant to kill the Covid virus. Don’t even.
He didn’t even say that. Every credible news agency has debunked your lie. Try reading the whole conversation of yourself instead of repeating garbage. Meanwhile in the real world, inflation is out of control, babies can’t get formula, crime is out of control, the border is wide open, drug deaths are at an all time high and all you can say is Trump even though things were a million times better with him but I guess Putin is the reason for all that.
Here’s exactly what he said, word for word:
“A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that, too. Sounds interesting, right?”
“And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning, because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that, so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful.”
He later said he was “being sarcastic,” when clearly he wasn’t — the old “I was just kidding” defense.
I know facts can’t get through your wall of ignorant faith in a lying scoundrel who told America the virus was no worse than the flu and would be gone in two weeks, when, in private, he told Bob Woodward it was lethal and easily spread through the air. (And he can’t deny that, because Woodward taped the phone conversations.) I’ve encountered cult members in the past, and there’s no convincing them to accept facts that contradict their guru.
“So, in your mind, it’s better to bank $45M more in the first five years than to be patient and bank $72M more over the next 14 years?”
Yeah that’s actually a no brainer. Simply put into an index fund following the S&P 500 that $45 million should be around $180 million if not more in 14 years.
But he’ll already have $105M to invest in the first six years of the contract.
What’s your point? I made a comment based on one thing you said and it isn’t incorrect. $45 million over the next 5 years is better than $72 million over the next 14 years.
Poor Freddie , instead of five CPA’s , three tax lawyers, two actuaries and economics professor on board , he shoulda fired them all and come to MLBTR for the best contract advice.
And the Braves deal would’ve given him $135m total after 5 years. Also wouldn’t have to pay California state tax.
investopedia.com/articles/03/082703.asp
But Atlanta has all those racist voting laws.
I’m confident that his financial advisers considered every angle, including the tax implications of the two offers, and that they’re more informed than either of us regarding Freddie’s finances.
BTW, in case you haven’t heard, ready-fire-aim radio host Doug Gottlieb completely retracted his bogus claim that Freeman fired his agent, Casey Close, because Close never informed him of the Braves’ final offer. Funny how a lawsuit for libel will motivate a guy to revise his story.
Freddie already had a home in Corona Del Mar in Newport Beach, CA, when he signed with the LA. Additionally, MLB players have to pay taxes in every state they play in on the road.
I can’t see bagging on Freddie for taking LA’s offer:
‘Freddie Freeman was working out in a gym with his father Monday morning when the news broke across his phone. He stared in utter disbelief, speechless. He didn’t know whether to cry or scream or both.
“He was in shock,” father Fred Freeman said. “He said, ‘I can’t believe it. Why didn’t they tell me? How did this happen? Out of nowhere, they didn’t tell me they were moving on. How does that happen?’ ”
The Atlanta Braves had just traded for Oakland A’s All-Star first baseman Matt Olson, abruptly ending Freeman’s 11-year tenure in Atlanta.
Freeman was so stunned that his father accompanied him home, and the entire family sat together for the next two hours, with Freeman’s wife, Chelsea, the kids and everyone in tears.
“He kept saying over and over, ‘I can’t believe it,’ ” Freeman’s father said. ” ‘They traded for Matt Olson. It’s over.’ ”
usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nighte…
Arenado will opt out and break the record for AAV for a position player. I don’t think he gets to the record scherzer just obtained because he won’t be interested in such a short term deal.
I’d guess something around the likes of 200 over 5 or 230-235 over 6.
Right ! Why not ? And the cardinals are 100% out on retaining his services as they’ll loose the money Rockies are contributing toward his salary. No way they’ll make up that money and then pay more
Add in a likely non tender candidate in Jeimer Candelerio. Detroit won’t offer him a contract at arbitration prices.
Not the sharpest knives in the drawer but seeing Justin Turner, and Arendo is fine.
Turner is only a free agent on paper, No chance the Dodgers decline his $16 million dollar option with this class of free agents. Arenado also loves St. Louis and while he absolutely will opt out, he’s almost assuredly going to re-sign. Longoria is another guy who had a great year when he was healthy but if he decides to play next year I think the giants have a very easy 8 million dollar decision to make.
The only guy on this list who can even be considered an every day third baseman who will be a free agent is Brandon Drury and as was stated earlier he couldn’t have been luckier with the timing. I still don’t know how long of a deal he will get though considering how awful he has played prior to this season.
Arenado loves where he is, because it’s dumb to say anything else. He loved Colorado too, until they pissed him off. He grew up a Dodgers fan and has on at least two occasions I can remember said he’d like to play for the Yankees. Real question is whether either of those teams make a play. I tend to think not, but he’ll still use them to extract more out of the Cards.
The difference is that he plays for a perennial contender now instead of one of the worst run franchises in baseball. If the Dodgers or Yankees had any payroll space to add 40 million a year I’d say there would be a solid chance he could sign with either of them in addition to the Cardinals.
No chance they decline his option? They’re kicking him to the curb for sure. Between doing that and DFA’ing Bellinger they free up $33m. They’re gonna have a comical amount of money to spend this off-seasons. Kershaw is taking a huge pay cut if he doesn’t retire. Turner is gone – back to the east coast so that’s another ton of money they’ll have to go wild with.
This list make me think Gio Urshela might be a decent trade piece for his last year of arb at ~$10,000,000
Absolutely he has value. Even a guy like Matt Carpenter has value with this free agent class and his feet are bolted on backwards at this stage of his career.
Yup, and the A’s have the prospect capital + a total long term black hole at 3B.
Things are looking up otherwise in the Oakland org, all other positions have great prospects, but its Zach Gelof then a whole lot of yikes at 3B. Urshela for pitching?
I doubt he’s worth much on his own and probably won’t be the As that want to pay him the $10mil
Idk, at some point MLB will step in and go “ok youre only allowed to spend basically nothing for 1 season, then you have to start building” like they have in the past. It usually leads to the A’s giving relievers 3 year deals, but they are definitely not strangers to big money. The gave Trevor Rosenthal $10M to never suit up like 2 years ago, so that’s not a great narrative.
Where are all the ones, who were claiming, Nolan Arenado would be a .250 hitter who would never come close to hitting 30 homers outside of Coors field at? I would love to see him, with the Angels and move Rendon to first base. Would help the Angels pathetic lineup out a lot. But realistically, he will probably opt out. Then resign with the Cardinals. Which I won’t be upset with.
Josh Donaldson and cash will be available.
He’s not an exciting option, but Mike Moustakas is better than a few names on this list. Wonder why he isn’t on it.
Because we would all drop dead if he opted out.
2B & 3B have a terrible FA market this year.
Yeah, Gonzalez benefitted from knowing what pitches were coming in 2017. Meanwhile, I fully expect the Dodgers to pick up Justin Turner’s option, so he won’t be a FA.
If Munetaka Murakami gets posted he’ll be right near the top of the list! 56 homers this year at 22 years old, could be a strong fit for Mariners, Yankees, Angels, Cardinals among others!
All those teams are too stacked already and would need to make many trades if they were to get him. He is a perfect fit for Oakland, who have no prospects at 3B even approaching Murakami.
Typical, Oakland has only ONE black hole position that everyone has been horrible so far in + they need to make an add from outside: 3B.
Are there are huge prospects coming up that will cause an issue where one of them needs to go? That’s Beane/Forst’s style.
Only problem with A’s is they don’t like to spend money, and if you look all the other Japanese stars that were posted they didn’t come cheap! Not sure A’s want to fork all that money for someone who will probably be looking to play for a winner in a market that is more suitable to their culture and able to pay! Though I do agree A’s have a need but they’ll probably end up going after a mid to lower tier player to fill that need at this point!
The A’s paid Hiroyuki Nakajima $6M to play 2 seasons at AAA.
The A’s pay huge/shorter contracts sometimes but that breaks that narrative. They also definitely did not do that this year, so it speaks to a bit more truth in the short term past.
A normal team would take a “Yeah we only arent spending anything this year to pool up for next years FA” but the A’s are being held hostage by an owner who hates America/everyone except his wallet. Just a nightmare human being, as they all are.
Cardinals will get more value with their arenado comp pick than they gave up in that trade. There’s been some absolutely terrible trades in professional sports history. Surely the arenado debacle is a top 5 all time all sports included
Arenado will look so much better in Cubs blue than he does wearing those ugly birds on his chest. Or any other teams jersey rather than that ugly nonsense.
I will settle for signing one or two frontline starting pitchers (Rodon, Bassitt, deGrom) and re-signing Contreras. After non-tendering him, maybe sign Reyes to a guaranteed one year $2 million contract as occasional DH, reserve OF and bench bat.
Contreras
Mervis
Madrigal
Hoerner
Wisdom
Happ
Suzuki
Morel/Davis
You can sign Ty Wigginton for half the cost of these guys combined and he’ll give you half the performance. There’s going to be an epic bidding war for Ty Wigginton. Book it.
He can play all four corner positions too!!!
Wait a minute now. I have it on great authority that Arenado sucks because his numbers are inflated by Coors Field. Surely many MLBTR commenters can’t ALLLLL be wrong.
Well, at least I’ll be honest and admit I was wrong. I definitely felt that way, but he’s proven me wrong. And that defense plays anywhere anyway. I just hate the Cards and wish they would just fold up.
Respect for saying so. I feel you on the Cardinals thing.
Hanser A. Doesn’t walk, doesn’t strike out much. Pretty good chance he’s gonna put the ball in play and regardless of situation. The truest definition of the term “pinch hitter” and available at a pinch hitter salary. If not the Dodgers, another contender grabs him next year.
AJ Preller needs to do what it takes to re-sign Brandon Drury! He’s been the most productive of this year’s trade fest (including Soto, Bell and Hader) AJ, PLEASE don’t disappoint the Padres Faithful!
White Sox have YoYo Moncado locked up, 17 million next year and 24 million the following year, and you wonder why the Sox are so disappointing
You said it though, his OPS will be .930 next year lol
Other than the Ace of St louis, NOTHIN Honey as to 3rd base as a prospect for trades. The brewers do not look that bad with DFA Pederson and Urias!
I see this error all the time on MLBTR articles. Editor needs to know. You can’t say simply “solid as Turner’s season has been” without starting it with “as.”