The Cardinals are fresh off a fourth straight postseason appearance, but they’ve failed to advance to a Division Series in each of the last three years. They’ll presumably try to run things back with as much continuity as possible given their regular season success, but they’ll do so without two franchise icons who had long ago announced that 2022 would be their final seasons.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nolan Arenado, 3B: $144MM through 2027 (Arenado can opt out this offseason; Rockies owe Cardinals $16MM in 2023 regardless of Arenado’s decision, Colorado would owe an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if he declines to opt out)
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $52MM through 2024
- Steven Matz, LHP: $35.5MM through 2025
- Miles Mikolas, RHP: $17MM through 2023
- Paul DeJong, SS: $11MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
- Giovanny Gallegos, RHP: $11MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
- Drew VerHagen, RHP: $3MM
Total 2023 commitments: $84.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $54.5MM if Arenado opts out (factoring in Rockies’ payments)
Total future commitments: $242.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $113.5MM if Arenado opts out
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)
- Jordan Montgomery (5.153): $10.1MM
- Jack Flaherty (5.006): $5.1MM
- Tyler O’Neill (4.059): $5.1MM
- Tommy Edman (3.114): $4.3MM
- Chris Stratton (5.100): $3.5MM
- Alex Reyes (5.056): $2.85MM
- Dakota Hudson (4.062): $2.7MM
- Ryan Helsley (3.105): $2.4MM
- Jordan Hicks (5.000): $1.6MM
- Génesis Cabrera (3.011): $1.2MM
- Andrew Knizner (3.021): $1MM
Total arbitration projections: $39.85MM
Non-tender candidates: Stratton, Reyes, Hudson, Cabrera
Free Agents
- José Quintana, Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina (retired), Albert Pujols (retired), Corey Dickerson, T.J. McFarland, Aaron Brooks
The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers with an excellent second half, claiming an NL Central title after two straight Wild Card berths. St. Louis’ 93 wins weren’t enough to secure a first-round bye in the new playoff format, however, leaving the Cards to match up against the Phillies in a three-game Wild Card set. Philadelphia came back from a ninth-inning deficit in Game One and went on to sweep the series, starting the St. Louis offseason earlier than the organization had hoped.
The Cardinals have had a string of early playoff exits in recent years, but they’ve continuously been one of the game’s most successful regular season teams. They’ve earned four straight playoff berths and haven’t had a below-average record in 15 years. It’s a remarkable run of consistency, anchored by one of the longer-tenured front office regimes and a few iconic presences on the roster. The front office tandem of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch will be back, with Girsch inking a multi-year extension last week and Mozeliak already under contract. Yet the Cards will have to turn the page from Yadier Molina and, after a surprising resurgent return season in St. Louis that saw him eclipse 700 career home runs, Albert Pujols.
Molina and Pujols announced before the 2022 season even began that it’d be their final runs. Adam Wainwright has made no such declaration, playing things much closer to the vest. The 41-year-old has been a fixture on the St. Louis roster for nearly two decades. He’s a free agent again, and while it’s impossible to envision him playing anywhere else, Wainwright has yet to declare whether he plans to continue pitching. If he wants to return, there’s no question the Cards would carve out a rotation spot yet again. He’s coming off another successful year, posting a 3.71 ERA over 191 2/3 innings. He and the Redbirds agreed to a $17.5MM extension last offseason, and it’s easy to envision another one-year deal in that range.
Wainwright told reporters after the season we’d “know pretty soon” whether he was returning, teasing that he was already aware of his decision (link via Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch). That doesn’t seem likely to drag too deep into the offseason, while the Cardinals biggest question has to be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Nolan Arenado is coming off arguably the best season of his career, one which should see him compete with corner infield mate Paul Goldschmidt for MVP support. He’ll have the opportunity to opt out of the final five years and $144MM on his contract at the start of the offseason.
Arenado forewent an opt-out chance last year, telling Goold it “was always the plan” to stay in St. Louis long-term at that time. The seven-time All-Star was coming off a relative down season in 2021, however, and it wasn’t clear he’d have topped the six years and $179MM remaining on his deal at that point. After this year’s incredible showing on both sides of the ball, he’d certainly beat $144MM as a free agent if his main priority were to maximize his earnings. Freddie Freeman received a six-year, $162MM deal (albeit with deferrals that knocked down its net present value) heading into his age-32 season coming off a less impressive platform year. Arenado would figure to top that mark were he a free agent.
The nine-time Gold Glover hasn’t tipped his hand this time around, but he’s consistently maintained his love for both St. Louis and the Cardinals organization. After the Cards were eliminated, he reiterated to reporters he’s “really loved it here” and added “hopefully we can figure (the contract) out” (via Brenden Schaeffer of KMOV).
It’s certainly possible Arenado decides not to pursue his greatest earning potential and sticks with an organization with which he’s clearly happy. That could take the form of just opting in to his existing deal or maybe a preemptive contract restructure. Arenado is slated to make just $15MM in the final season of his current deal. If St. Louis agreed to make his 2027 salary more commensurate with the $32.25MM average annual value of the deal’s next four years, perhaps that’d strike a balance between rewarding his excellent season while preserving continuity.
The Cardinals have plenty of breathing room financially to rework Arenado’s deal if necessary. According to the Associated Press, the Rockies will owe the Cards $16MM next season regardless of Arenado’s opt-out decision, as agreed upon in the 2021 trade that sent him to St. Louis. Colorado would send an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out. With the Rox on the hook for such a notable portion of next year’s salary, the Cardinals would only have roughly $54.5MM in guaranteed commitments (subtracting the money they’d receive from Colorado) if Arenado opts out.
They’re likely to allocate another $35-40MM to a loaded arbitration class, but that’d still leave them with less than $100MM in player expenditures. St. Louis has opened the past two seasons with a player payroll north of $150MM, so they could absolutely accommodate a hefty Arenado deal next year. Only Goldschmidt ($26MM), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) and Giovanny Gallegos ($5.5MM) are on guaranteed deals by 2024, so there shouldn’t be much long-term concern about keeping Arenado around.
That’s also true because the Cards will retain much of their remaining roster. Goldschmidt will be back at first base, while Tommy Edman is arbitration-eligible for three more seasons to take one middle infield spot. Edman is a decent hitter and one of the game’s best defenders at either second base or shortstop. He’ll certainly be in the lineup at one of those spots for manager Oliver Marmol, but there’s at least a chance for the Cardinals to look outside the organization for middle infield help.
St. Louis sat out a loaded free agent shortstop class last offseason, counting on Paul DeJong to return to form offensively. He did not, hitting a career-worst .157/.245/.286 over 237 MLB plate appearances. The Cardinals optioned him to Triple-A midway through the year, and while he performed fairly well there, he didn’t carry that over after returning to the majors for the season’s final two months. With $11MM remaining on his contract, taking the form of a $9MM 2023 salary and a $2MM buyout on a ’24 club option, DeJong will be tough to move. Maybe the Cardinals consider a swap of undesirable deals for a position of greater need — speculatively speaking, a deal with the Angels involving catcher Max Stassi could match up financially while making sense with each team’s roster outlook — but it’s also possible St. Louis just releases DeJong and eats the money. At the very least, his streak of five straight Opening Day starts at shortstop will come to an end.
There’s again a loaded shortstop class in free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts locks to opt out of their current deals and join Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner. The Cardinals long-term financial flexibility means they could plausibly kick the tires on that group. However, signing one of the top shortstops would be out of character for an organization that has only once gone beyond $100MM on a free agent contract (seven years and $120MM to retain Matt Holliday in 2009-10) and has never signed a player for more than $130MM. Correa and Turner would shatter the franchise record outlay, and Bogaerts and Swanson shouldn’t have much trouble topping that figure themselves.
If Arenado opts out and signs elsewhere, a run at the top free agent shortstops would appear more realistic. If he stays, then the Cards could look to trade possibilities like the Guardians’ Amed Rosario or stick with Edman at shortstop while giving second base to a combination of Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Gorman is a former first-rounder and top prospect; he has huge power but notable strikeout issues and isn’t an ideal fit in the middle infield. Donovan was a less heralded prospect but finished seventh in the majors (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .394 on-base percentage as a rookie. He worked in a bat-first utility role and may not be a great defender at the keystone either, but he looks like the kind of excellent contact hitter the Cardinals have excelled at developing over the years.
There’s not a huge need for an overhaul in the outfield. Corey Dickerson will probably walk in free agency, leaving the Cards with a group of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and breakout prospect Alec Burleson. Trading Harrison Bader at this past deadline subtracted an elite defender from the mix, but Carlson rated well in his half-season of center field work. The Cardinals seem committed to him as a franchise center fielder, and the others give them a balanced group of corner outfield/designated hitter options from which to choose. O’Neill had a down year after a standout 2021 campaign, but Nootbaar took a step forward and looks like a potential everyday player. Perhaps the Cardinals look for a glove-first backup to upgrade over Ben DeLuzio in a bench role, but this doesn’t look like a spot for a big investment.
That’d be particularly true if Arenado sticks around, since he’d lock down third base for the long haul. 2020 first-rounder Jordan Walker has blossomed into one of the sport’s top prospects as a potential impact power bat and is fresh off a .306/.388/.510 showing as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He’s played primarily third base in the minors but has gotten increasing work in the corner outfield. If Arenado and Goldschmidt are under contract for the next two-plus seasons, the corner outfield/DH is the easiest path to at-bats for Walker once he’s ready, which could be as soon as the middle of next season.
The position the Cardinals will need to address from outside the organization is catcher. For the first time in almost two decades, it won’t be Molina’s job. Andrew Knizner hasn’t shown himself capable of being Molina’s heir apparent as once hoped. He could stick around in a backup role, but he shouldn’t be expected to assume the #1 job. Prospect Iván Herrera hit .268/.374/.396 in 65 Triple-A games at age 22, earning a very brief big league look in the process. He’s a potential long-term option, but it’d probably be too risky to count on him as the top catcher for a win-now 2023 team.
Free agency doesn’t offer many obvious solutions. Longtime division rival Willson Contreras is the standout at the position. The Cardinals are a viable suitor for Contreras, but he’s more of a bat-first player and would be an atypical fit for an organization that has placed such a strong premium on defense. Signing Contreras, who’ll receive a qualifying offer, would also require forfeiting an amateur draft choice. Other than Contreras, Christian Vázquez may be the only free agent backstop who’s a lock to land a regular job, while Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino could be glove-first stopgaps to Herrera. The A’s Sean Murphy, who’s projected for a $3.5MM arbitration salary and controllable through 2025, would be the prize of the trade market at the position. If the Cardinals were inclined to make a splash, it’s easy to envision the A’s having interest in big league ready players like Gorman and Burleson.
St. Louis could poke around the trade market for controllable starting pitching as well, although they won’t enter the offseason with as pressing a rotation need as most teams. Miles Mikolas is under contract for an additional season, while deadline pickup Jordan Montgomery will be back for his final year of arbitration. St. Louis signed Matz to a four-year free agent deal last winter. Injuries contributed to a rough first season, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back. Wainwright would obviously have a rotation spot if he wants to return.
There’s a bit of uncertainty at the back end, but the Cardinals have options. Jack Flaherty has shown top-of-the-rotation potential in the past and is eligible for arbitration a final time. He’s lost most of the past year and a half to shoulder issues, but he’ll certainly be tendered a contract with a relatively modest projected $5.1MM arbitration salary. It’s possible Mozeliak and his staff gauge the trade market on Flaherty, but he wouldn’t garner a huge return and seems likelier to be on the Cards roster come Opening Day. If healthy, he figures to have a rotation spot.
There’s enough uncertainty with Flaherty and Matz the Cardinals could look for a depth option at the back end. Midseason trade pickup José Quintana pitched well enough down the stretch St. Louis tabbed him as the Game One starter for their Wild Card series. He’ll be a free agent and may have pitched himself beyond the Cards’ comfort range financially, but there’s a deep free agent market of innings-eating starting pitchers this winter. Players like Michael Wacha, Drew Smyly or Kyle Gibson figure to land affordable one or two-year contracts.
Adding another starter, particularly if Wainwright does opt for retirement, would have the added benefit of allowing St. Louis to pencil Andre Pallante into the bullpen. He worked as a swingman as a rookie and was a valuable ground-ball specialist. He’s an internal rotation option but could fit better in multi-inning relief. That’s also true of Dakota Hudson, who struggled enough as a starter he was optioned back to Triple-A late in the year. With a projected $2.7MM arb salary, Hudson could also be traded for a minimal return or just cut loose altogether.
At the back end of the bullpen, flamethrowing Ryan Helsley has broken out as one the game’s best relievers. The ever-consistent Gallegos joins him as a high-leverage option, and he was rewarded with a late-season two-year extension. Jordan Hicks and Alex Reyes have been inconsistent, largely due to injuries, but they’ve shown the potential to be high-leverage relievers at their best. Reyes missed all of 2022 and could be non-tendered, but the Cards could roll the dice on a $2.85MM salary depending on his recovery from May shoulder surgery. Chris Stratton came over from the Pirates in the Quintana deal and could factor in as well, although a projected $3.5MM salary might be rich for a player who didn’t make the team’s playoff roster.
There’s a bit of uncertainty from the left side, but the Cards again have options. Packy Naughton and former first-rounder Zack Thompson were serviceable. Génesis Cabrera had a brutal 2022 season but is only projected for a $1.2MM arbitration salary. He still throws in the mid-upper 90s and has taken high-leverage innings in the past. There’s room for another left-handed arm, particularly if the Cards move on from Cabrera, but adding there feels like more of a luxury than a necessity.
That’s true for much of the roster, which boasts a few star players and the Cardinals’ typical stockpile of depth. All eyes in St. Louis early in the offseason will be on Arenado. If he opts out and surprisingly signs with a different team, the Cards could find themselves in position for major turnover. If he stays in St. Louis, as most anticipate he will, the offseason figures to be primarily about preserving continuity — although they’ll have to make a change at catcher for the first time in 20 years regardless.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 10-20-22. Click here to view the transcript of that discussion.
With Molina, Pujols, and Waino coming off the books, I could see the cardinals signing Turner/Bogaerts to play SS. Trade for Murphy or sign Vazquez to play behind the plate.
I think Waino will be back. I also think the Cardinals won’t sign any of the top tier SS’s. I think they’ll run Edman and Donovan out there and spend money elsewhere, hopefully on a SP and trade for a decent Catcher.
Maybe trade O’neil for one of Toronto’s catchers?
Would take a lot more than that for Kirk/Jansen.
O’Neill doesn’t really bring anything to the Blue Jays that Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel don’t already give them. Toronto needs LH hitters so perhaps Dylan Carlson (i know he is a switch hitter) would have to be the starting point.
Why would the Angels, or any other team, trade for Dejong? He ain’t that good
According to mlb trade values, Moreno for Carlson and liberatore is a fair trade.
Would O’Neill, Gorman and Liberatore be enough?
Sounds like win-win to me, but the Cards did not want to include Carlson for Soto so I think it will not happen. Maybe three out of O’Neill, Burlson, Gorman and Liberatore?
5 wins away from 200 and a better shot at the Hall of Fame could definitely bring Wainwright back for another year
Wains is awesome but he is more than five wins from the H of F.
Eh, he’s a boderline case. Getting to 200 Wins would at least help his odds.
Cards need murphy !
I can see the Cardinals offering contracts to all of the non tender candidates. Dejong buy out for 3 million is almost a given at this point regardlessof 2023 production (or at least for the love of God we hope so) if Tyler O’Neill puts up a healthy year I can see them offering him an extension of sorts?Jack Flaherty if he doesn’t have a good year/healthy year I believe maybe traded at the deadline? He’s a bubble player for me? They are not going to trade for or sign a SS… they have Tommy Edman and Paul Dejong to occupy the position biding time for Maysin Winn to develop?
0% chance we play at the top of the SS market. We’ll take a swing on some like Iglesias and call that good enough. Then add a 6th/7th starter type along with a glove first C and probably call it an offseason. We should 100% be in on Dansby (anyone hoping we would spend more on a turner/correa type is either dreaming or thinking logically but not realistic to how our front office operates) if we want to be serious WS contenders but we would rather have some of Mo’s infamous “low hanging fruit” and be just good enough to be considered competitive which is all we shoot for.
That Arenado deal looks more of an incredible heist with each passing day. To have gotten him with Colorado including that much salary for a group of “prospects” headlined by Austin Gomber is enough for me to have forgiven the Ozuna deal that cost Alcantara and Gallen.
I was with you up to that last phrase.
You have to forgive the Ozuna trade. 1st off, it’s the only real risk Mo has ever taken. And I’m constantly in favor of being more aggressive with our risk taking. 2nd, we needed a power bat more than shortstop needs a glove. Ozuna was coming off an MVP caliber season with power AND average. He was young. 3rd, for every Gallen and Alcantara, there’s a Hudson, Shelby, Weaver, Oviedo and Woodford.
Of course there is something to be said about our ace pitcher development.
I do not have to forgive that. Ozuna was the last option he tried to get. To trade Alcantara for Ozuna is terrible on its own but to also trade Galen and Sierra was beyond dumb.
Alcan wasn’t Alcan back then. If you didn’t like the trade at the time, you were a fool, or Nostradamus. You are not Nostradamus.
Sierra was a lot more talked about than either pitcher when that trade went down. Alcantara and Junior Fernandez were about on equal footing at that point as throwers who needed to learn how to pitch and Gallen was considered a back end guy that just didn’t have the stuff to headline. Alcantara flat out learned to be a hoss and Gallen seems to have bern vastly underestimated
I was with you right up until that last phrase.
But how long were you with him?
Are you still with me bassrun?
The headliner was not Austin Gomber. It was Eleheuris Montero, who looks really good as a 23 year old. And anyway, the point from the Rockies POV was not 2021 or 2022, it was the out years when he is in his late 30’s. Come talk to me about how you feel about the trade in a couple years. Especially of course if he leaves this year (increasingly thinking he will stay but with a big extension, making the out years even worse).
I suspect Cardinals fans will feel better about the Arenado trade in a couple of years than Rockies fans will feel about the money they paid for Kris Bryant.
How can you defend that deal? Gave up the best 3rd baseman in baseball, pay the Cardinals to do it, and sign Kris Bryant at an exorbitant cost to replace him??? Are you in fact the gm?
He is saying both Rockies deals were bad
Even if he leaves, so what? The Rockies have paid so much for him already that it’s still a massive win for the Cardinals, they had two years of a superstar for a fraction of the actual cost.
Headliner was Elehuris Montero more than Gomber but still a heist.
Ozuna deal was like trading Swanson plus more for Shelby Miller, except worse
Mo is already spinning a yarn about DeJong’s two good weeks and his potential for next year. That would be a horrible decision. Mo has pulled the right strings on many moves but will never just cut bait on a player he has committed any money to. God knows he won’t pay $300 million plus for Turner or anyone else. Anyone who thinks they will is kidding themselves. Murphy would be nice at catcher. Please do not bring Dickerson back. He cost us down the stretch when they kept playing him last year with better options available who didn’t weakly ground out almost every at bat and play horrible defense with a noodle arm. Hope they can just bring Quintana for another year but he may not do as well without Yadi. Please extend Monty. He is a keeper.
Quintana did great with Pittsburgh’s crappy cast of catchers. I’m not sure what Yadi did for him. Typical over hype of a washed up player.
Aww, a troll who has never watched a game? Sure Yadi’s offense has slowed a couple years ago, but his pitch calling is revered throughout the game.
Someone gives you facts and you call them a troll. Gotcha. Molina only caught 4 of 12 starts and you want to give him credit for Quintana’s strong two months with the Cardinals? If you want to give credit to anyone other than Quintana. I’d say give credit to both the Cardinals fantastic defense and superior offense (at least compared to the Pirates). It’s much easier to pitch when you know the defense will make the plays and if you give up something early the offense will still score for you. Molina fixed him is a joke.
Haha, are you really defending Dickerson? He had one good month after the all star game, but did nothing when it mattered. Literally one of the worst players in the game for the first half. Just as bad the last month. Burleson or Carlson sat for him. They each gave us a better shot. Where does he rank in outfield assists? Dead last. He throws like my 8 year old daughter.
Montgomery was dominant for his first 4 starts starts, then ended with two bad ones. Pitched well in the playoff game in relief. He has been solid for the past 4 years for the Yankees. Way better option than Hudson or Liberatore so far.
they’ll never win with oli as manager
Molina only caught 4 of Quintana’s 12 starts with the Cardinals. Knizner was behind the plate for the rest.
Mo said DeJong has a lot of work to do this offseason. His remarks were in no way positive about DeJong other than they like him as a person and appreciate what he’s done in the past.
Dickerson hit .315/.333/.457 with a 124 wRC+ in the second half. They didn’t have much better offensive options. He’s not a good defender but he still graded out as average.
Monty pitched well against the Cubs, Nationals, and Pirates AA rosters. He got shelled by everyone else.
Did we watch the same team?
pitched well against the Yankees
Missing 3 of their top 4 players. Yeah I guess he pitched just fine against Judge and the backups.
I wouldn’t redo the contract for more money if I was the Cardinals. If he opts out, let him walk. It Could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
He’s gone ! And cards won’t ever pay a guy like that the money he’s going to demand. Enjoy it why it lasted card fans !
What’s that you say Big whiffa? Sounds like you whiffed again.
CArdinal fans as a Rangers fan I am not as up to speed on your roster, but was surprised to see Dakota Hudson and Genesis Cabrera as non-tender candidates..Their salaries arent that taxing and the stats do not look that bad. Can someone shed some light on why they might be non-tendered.
Cabrera lost considerable velocity and command since May and was in the minors to end the season. Hudson is an extreme pitch to contact guy who also was walking quite a few the second half of the season. Hudson is helped immensely by the Cardinals excellent infield defense. Hudson’s biggest issue is that he may be the odd man out, especially if the Cardinals bring back Wainwright and/or want to bring back Quintana.
I would have sworn that Cabrera was hurt given the total degradation of his stuff post May. They never announced any injury though so maybe it’s mechanical.
All that is true. I doubt they will get rid of Genesis unless he sucks in spring training. He has electric stuff.
Hudson just purely refuses to throw strikes. Neither threat of torture nor offer of riches can change his mind. He’s just won’t do it.
Control is usually the last thing to come back after TJS.
Hudson did not have it pre surgery. Dakota’s BB9 in 2019 and 20 pre surgery was icky too. Has a bold italic scar in his baseball reference stats for leading all of baseball in BB in 2019. 2023 is his age 28 season.
Ohtani will look good in the right shade of red next year when he joins the team he should have in the first place.
You’re right. He would look good on the Astros team.
They don’t use trash cans in Japan.
Vazquez would be a decent stopgap/mentor to Herrera for the Cardinals. However, if they don’t really want to spend a lot on the position they could wait for the Diamondbacks to non-tender Carson Kelly or sign Tucker Barnhart to platoon with Knizner to at least start the season
No mention of Jake Woodford or Drew VerHagen. I have no idea how the Cardinals view Woodford, but I guarantee VerHagen makes the team out of spring training. Mo doesn’t give up on guys he gives money to. He will force feed innings to VerHagen for at least 2 months before making a change.
All Woodford does is pitch well. Not flashy just effective.
He reminds me of Lance Lynn, club seems to undervalue the player for some reason though they seem to mostly get the job done when called upon.
Lynn dominated in the minors. Woodford hasn’t done that. He’s looked good in small samples in the bigs but every time he’s asked to pitch in the rotation in the minors his numbers go south.
Lynn had two season’s at AAA and pitched to a higher than 4.50 era in 44 games and 250 innings or so. I wouldn’t consider that dominate. Woodford has better minor league numbers than Lynn has.
Dansby Swanson should absolutely be the SS target. Fits right in with bat approach and defensive metrics. But like the rest of you I foresee a quiet offseason as they count on people to bounce back and find the production from the unknown depth pieces like always. Which sucks a little because a Swanson and a Contreras would take that offense to some elite levels.
So the cardinals are going to make dansby Swanson the highest paid player in franchise history ? Not likely
Can’t help history and your point is well-taken but I think they need to add some offensive infusion. Which of course they always need to and never really swing at.
I am not exactly sure how they get it done, but Pitching is a big future issue for the Cards. I have been following the AA cardinals fairly closely the last 3 or 4 seasons since they are local and the minor league pitching talent needs addressed or there won’t be the train to the big leagues that cardinal fans have been able to lean on. Liberator has talent, but has not been able to translate that into success. Will be looking forward to seeing Tink Hence hopefully late next year. What I am going the long way to say is that the big league club needs to get some back up plans that they can stash at AAA because help from the minors is not as plentiful for them as it has been for the last decade or so.
Graceffo, Thompson, Liberatore, McGreevy, Hence, Thomas, Hjerpe… They’ve still got a ton of pitching talent in the farm.
Watched Graceffo and McGreevy this year, Thomas last year. Will likely get a look at Hence next year maybe even Hjerpe later in the season. Maybe it was the lost minor league season of 2020, the Texas League being known more as a hitter friendly one, or myself catching a couple off days for the individuals, but I have not been impressed with the last three that I have watched. When Trevor Rosenthal was tossing bullets at Hammonds Field you knew he would be something special. Flaherty same thing. Shelby Miller same thing. Now those three have had varying degrees of success in the big leagues, they stood a world apart from their competition at AA. Hopefully they figure it out on the way up. I have less faith in it, but I am just a fan and not a scout.
McGreevy has the least upside of the Graceffo/McGreevy/Thomas trio. Thomas just went out and dominated the AFL with a tweak to his pitch mix. He’s not an Ace but I think he’s going to be a very nice #2/3. Graceffo still has work to do on his command but if he can harness it he has Wainwright like upside.
I think the AP report is incorrect if Arenado opts out. If he signs an extension I’m not sure.
Arenado’s contract was underwater at the time of the trade. So, it makes sense to me that was the price Colorado had to pay to move Arenado. The players that The Rockies received were little more than window dressing.
Is the NL central at risk of being kicked out of Major League Baseball ? If there’s ever a hope for reds or pirates- it’s that they play in central.
75 wins and the division is yours !
Not sure where you get that as StL won 93 games this season
Cardinals will not have to do much to win the central next season.
They must hope that Nolan, if he doesn’t opt out and sign elsewhere, and Goldy can have MVP years again. Chances are they will be just very good and their WAR will be cut in half. That’s eight wins they’ll have to make up somewhere.
I still can not believe the extent of which the Rockies were fleeced in that Arenado trade. The Rockies paid the Cardinals $50m to take Arenado and got nothing for him. I feel sorry for those fans suffering through this Rockies era of ownership and management incompetence. But hey – at least the ballpark is really nice.
The absolute baffling level of incompetence is completely true. I would be big mad if I was Rox fan. How do you not sell off the things of value? .. Chimpanzee in a suit… “Let’s hold on to all of it, sign reckless extensions, trade Arenado for my bananas, and sign Kris Bryant to an absurd contract!” Ooooof99
A change of cities and franchise relocation would help them tremendously. The Rams were smart getting out of that place and making themselves a desirable landing spot. They will never attract free agents until they move to Vegas and they need all the outside help they can get since their prospects all fail.
Kris Bryant said it best. St Louis is boring.
They’re literally top 5 in attendance every single year. And to a man almost every player that plays there talks about how amazing the city’s support of the franchise is. Don’t really care if the bro-generation of players wants to play elsewhere. Not every city works for every player. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad place to play just because Kris (yeah Denver is Vegas) Bryant says it.
As a RS fan, I used to seeing some great support. But Fenway and Wrigley have nothing on the Cards fans. I’ve seen you guys in late-September, out of the race, and the joint is still a sea of red shirts. Every year. And weather seldom makes a difference.
Since the Cards had better attendance this year than the Yankees, maybe it is time for the Yankees to relocate to Las Vegas. The relocation suggestion is crazy talk.
You just need to ignore WhiteCastle. He is willing to say anything to get a reaction.
The team who has gotten more WAR out of their draft picks than any other team the last 25 years has their prospects all fail? Okay.
Goldschmidt will win the MVP.
Not Nolan or Manny or anybody.
Get it right this time!
Maybe they’ll all get to share it and be the 3 MVPs in the NL…
I was shocked to see the Baseball Heaven fans leave before the last out of Wildcard Game 1. Hopefully, Baseball God is not an Old Testament vengeful god.
My general thoughts on the questions most asked on the chat:
1. Arenado will be back.
2. Wainright will pitch next season. But not necessarily for the Cardinals.
3. Paul DeJong will be on the opening day Major League roster. (I know, I know, but it will happen.)
4. The Cards are not chasing Contreras or any of the free agent SS’s.
5. If they make a move in free agency, I could see it being an
upgrade to the Corey Dickerson spot. If someone like
Conforto or Gallo is sitting there late and willing to take
a one year deal, the Cards might pounce even if the price is
significantly higher than the 5 mil they paid Dickerson.
6. Knizner is definitely part of the equation and more likely to be
the Opening Day catcher than to be non tendered.
Fans need to remember this franchise operates on a multi-year plan, and not year-to-year.
#2 Prospect Masyn Winn is viewed as the shortstop of the future, and only a year or so away. That means they won’t sign a big time SS like Correa/Swanson/Turner, etc ..
IF the Cardinals truly believe in Ivan Herrerra (#7 prospect), they’re not going to trade for a long term solution as catcher (ala Sean Murphy) or sign one to more than a 2 year deal (ala C Vasquez) either. The Stassi for DeJong idea or DeJong for Grandel/$$$ better fit the Cardinals modus operandi; IF they believe in Herrerra, they won’t want to block him. I do think they’re going to upgrade over Knizner in some fashion with someone who has SOME upside (both Stassi and Grandel represent bounceback opportunities). A version of Dejong/Hudson for Nick Ahmed (pending physical) and Carson Kelly could be another idea. Just as likely however, they’ll sign a one year guy no one will be excited about..
Aside from that, there’s a logic to dealing off Gorman if Arenado stays; the younger Nolan isn’t really a second baseman and that’s going to be exposed even more with the new rules.
Much of the above throws water on Stl making any big splashes, but I think it’s POSSIBLE they do more than snag a bullpen arm and stopgap middle infielder.
For example, because the team DOES look beyond ’23, I think they’ll be interested in a SP signed beyond that point (with Waino, Mikolas, Flaherty and Montgomery all likely departing at season end). The free agent market doesn’t seem that appealing or likely but the talent exists to put together a package deal for a top of the rotation starter ala Zach Gallen (maybe with Carson Kelly included as a stopgap to Herrerra) or a Pablo Lopez.. The aforementioned Nolan Gorman should be very available if Arenado stays and in a very tight OF market, a Tyler O’Neill (and prospect Moises Gomez (.294/.371/.624 with 39 HRs in AA/AAA) could be coveted and draw a strong return, with guys like Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford and possibly Jordan Hicks (or Alex Reyes) used to fill in a package.
The good news is, the Cardinals aren’t in a bad position to mostly sit pat. It’s not what fans want to happen but the young core carries promise of improvement with some exciting prospects on the horizon. .
Sign Contreras. Upgrade SP. Need an ace ish type. Catcher wasn’t even replacement level as a whole last yr. Done and done. It’s not difficult. Stop crying poor and spend some money. 3.3 mil attendance this yr. Get it done and quit bitching. Or they can lose in the first round again. It’s not Riggity Riggity Rocket Science. Tired of these shenanigans
The Cardinals are simply the product of being the best team in the worst division in baseball. More than half their wins came against their NLC foes. Be they will be lucky to finish .500 next year with the balanced schedule. They were easily the worst of the 12 teams in the playoffs.
I’m a die hard Cards fan, but I watch a lot more baseball than just Cardinal games and I am a rare on in Saint Louis that can be honest about the team. Going into next year they don’t have a single outfielder of note, not sure how this author thinks they are set.
Their heralded farm system never translates to major league success. I can’t remember a single high ranked prospect under the Mozalak regime that became an impact player. Sorry, yes I can, Alcantara and Gallen. Except they did it with other organizations. I suppose you could argue Flaherty, he had one second half for the record books but hasn’t been able to come close to repeating and then they go make him mad so he keeps finding ways to hang out on the IL.
But they have suck great defensive! So what! Defense doesn’t win championships. High end starting pitching and a consistent lineup does. Mozalak love to build a team around a bunch of guys that have to rely on max effort rather than natural talent. Those hustle players then endear themselves to the fans because they “just play the right way and hustle everything out and scrap for every inch.” Or because their hair just flows from under their helmet. That’s great and all, but a team of those don’t win unless your in the NL central.
This team sucks, it has sucked for a while now and it is positioned to suck for a while longer. Bring in some energizing youth. Find a way actually get their minor league success to show up in the majors. Or just keep doing what your doing. Sign a bunch of cast off over the hill free agents and have 5 Rex hurlers on the team. The stadium will sell out every night because the fans are brainwashed and there is also literally nothing else to do in Saint Louis.
P.s. I hope Arenado opts out. This is so close to the year Rendon became a free agent and look how quickly that became a disaster for the angels. Plus he doesn’t fit the youth movement this team needs. Put Walker at 3B to start the year. Put Wynn at short to start the year. Baseball transitioning to a younger players game, the diffference making players are in the league by 20-21. Those that aren’t, are marginal roster fillers. It doesn’t matter if they struggle because the NC will be won by pulling a raffle ticket. Or trade them so they can actually be successful when developed by another team.
It may be frustration speaking, but you speak untruths. “Heralded farm system never translates to success”? “This team sucks, has sucked and is positioned to suck for a while longer””?
Not only has the farm system enabled the team to acquire the likes of Arenado/Goldschmidt/Montgomery/Quintana/Gallegos etc.,(not to mention Wainwright back in the day and smaller contributors like JA Happ/Jon Lester) but overlooking the contributions of Edman, Donovan, Nootbar, O’Neill, Gorman, Carlson, Yepez, Hicks, Burleson, Z Thompson, Flaherty, Pallante, Helsley etc. demonstrates a failure to appreciate the actual value of inexpensive, club controlled talent (and yet you lobby for a youth movement!). Our efforts to backfill on the open market (Matz, Wittgren, Verhagen, C. Dickerson, etc.) shows how mercurial and expensive it is if you have to look outside the organization (and we’re not even talking about the cost of top level free agents).. Most clubs would gladly “trade” one home grown superstar for a steady flow of major league talent.. Mike Trout and the Angels are a perfect example.. It’s the nature of the beast that not all minor leaguers succeed, and some just become part time contributors, but the Cardinals have been VERY successful when it comes to drafting and developing ballplayers.
“This team sucks” Feel free to list all the teams who’ve gone longer without either rebuilding or annually spending $200+ million dollars. It’s a very short list. That IS success., We may not be the BEST organization in baseball but when you look at long term sustained success and the market size we operate from, you’d find very few people who would agree with you that “this team sucks, has sucked and is positioned to suck for a while longer””
I have my gripes with this club – they struggle to identify talent elsewhere and often fail to acquire fair value in return – but I too look at other teams, especially those in comparable markets/financial situations, and appreciate how fortunate we are.
Their success comes from playing in a perpetually god awful division. Aside from Helsley, All of those players you listed off, none of them are impressive much less a key stone player. Relievers are hit and miss year to year so who knows on Helsley. And you forget, Gallegos was the add on in the Voit trade. Shreve was the main get. You confirmed my point, when we get rid of our prospects early it works out for the club, but they never amount anything but lifetime roll players and journey men when we they make the MLB with the Cardinals. The market size is a bogus arguement. The Cardinals have the money to spend the big market teams do. The majority owner is part of the Arbys ownership group as well. They get revenue from there tv deal, gatesales, concessions, ball park village AND they get money from revenue sharing which is crazy considering the amount of money they already bring in.
Just wait until next year when the team struggles to finish .500 because it doesn’t play 60+ games against the NL central.
They play two more games against teams above .500 in 2023 than they did in 2022. The balanced schedule isn’t some doom and gloom thing like you’re making it out to be.
I don’t see the Cardinals outright releasing DeJong. He still has value for a roster spot at the very least as a defensive replacement and a power bat off the bench against lefties, so they might as well keep him for those roles, since they’ll be paying most of his salary no matter what they do with him.
His days as a starter are over, though, with either Donovan or an outside signing teaming up with Edman in the middle infield most days next year.
It sounds crazy, but if you look at the shortstops available, keeping him makes sense. Unfortunately, they made a mistake trading Sosa in order to keep DeJong.
I like the idea of trading for Amed Rosario. If that happens, DeJong’s roster spot becomes too valuable to keep him around. You can be sure it will take an act of Congress to get Mo to outright release him.
The guardians aren’t trading off their roster. Not Rosario and certainly not Beiber. They were the youngest team in baseball and ran away with the AL central. They just resigned Franconia. They will be looking to at a support piece for Ramirez and try to make a deeper run next year. They too will regress from the balanced schedule but no where near as much as the cardinals will.
Why would the Guardians regress less when the Cardinals are a better team and both teams play in similarly weak divisions? While the AL Central does have a better top 3 teams (with 4th and 5th place being trash in both leagues), the Cardinals right now clearly look like the best of all 10 teams going into next year, while the Brewers will likely finish about at well as next year AL Central Champions, and the Cubs should improve quite a bit. Of course, it’s extremely early, but at this point it’s the Cardinals with the better defense against regression with the balanced schedule..
Also, the Guardians only “ran away” with the division in the same way the Cardinals did, by only pulling away in early September after a very close race over the first 5 months.
I do agree that the window is now open for Guardians and they won’t be trading away someone like Rosario, but they also don’t have the payroll available to improve their team as much as they would like over this offseason.
Agree to disagree. The AL Central is a more competitive devision in then the NL central. I have no doubts the guardians would have beaten the cardinals if they would have met in the post season. The two teams are trending in totally different directions. The Indians are trending upwards while the cardinals don’t trend at all they. They literally live in the world of MEH. Hopefully the fan base will eventually get kiss by Prince Charming so it can wake up and let the organization know that MEH is not acceptable.
The guardians also just brought on David Blizter as 35% owner. That gives them access to a lot of cash to spend if they want to bring in an over the top player. Their location, not unlike St. Louis, is their biggest obstacle now.
No, it’s not! Both divisions are about equally weak right now. The Cardinals will be better than the Guardians. The Brewers will be better than the Twins and the White Sox. The Twins and White Sox will be better than the Cubs. The Tigers, Royals, Pirates, and Reds are all equally trash. That gives the NL Central the better Top 2 teams and the AL Central just the top 3rd best team, at least as things look right now going into next season.
The Guardians did trend upwards, but they’ll probably only remain about where they are this offseason. While the same is true of the Cardinals, they started at a significantly higher spot on the totem pole and will likely remain there. They are far better than just “meh.”
No owner invests his personal fortune into a team’s payroll. They’re in it to make a profit. Unlike Cleveland, St. Louis draws well despite their location and as such can actually afford pretty good payrolls.
The Cardinals were missing their two best OFs (O’Neill and Carlson) for big chunks of the season, should expect a big improvement from Gorman in his second look at big league pitching, and have Jordan Walker beating down the door. They’re not trending up at all? Come on.
If they get another middle infielder, they still have room for DeJong on the roster given Donovan’s versatility and the DH spot being available for Gorman (if/when he’s not in AAA).
I agree that Sosa is more valuable, but that’s also why he was the one we were able to trade in the first place. Nobody’s taking DeJong off our hands unless we eat most of his salary anyway.
Sosa doesn’t have anything close to the ceiling DeJong has shown in the past. Even going forward DeJong is a better fielder and they’re both below average bats (unless Holliday and Brandon Allen) can fix DeJong.
That’s in the past. Nowadays, even Sosa hits better than DeJong. Meanwhile, they both play excellent defense with the slight edge probably going to Sosa. On top of that, Sosa is much cheaper and has more time remaining before free agency.
Everyone on here talking about how weak both central divisions are but fail to realize that overall the AL west was far and away THE WORST in MLB! Moving on……The Cardinals would be best served in trading for Murphy to address their need at catcher and cutting ties with Knizner and have Herrera back up Murphy at the big league level. This model worked when Yadi was backing up Matheny and if it doesn’t work out then we can cut bait with one of them. It is becoming more common place for teams to carry 2 capable catchers and splitting time in an effort to keep them both fresh and contributing. Blue Jays do it with Jansen and Kirk and Braves do it with d’Arnaud and Contreras and it works. In all honesty a lot of moves the Cards make will hinge on how they think O’Neil bounces back after this year. If we get the 2021 version, or anything close, this team is really REALLY dangerous. As much as I love Waino and what he has done, at this point I could really take it or leave it. What he will provide in 2023 is easily replaceable not taking into account what he brings with helping younger pitchers which is something that is invaluable. I would love to see an outfield with O’Neil,Carlson and Noot with Walker as 4th outfielder and DH. I think Gorman gets traded for Murphy OR Jansen which opens up a spot for Winn to get his shot. The Cardinals took a chance on Gorman this season and it was Meh….. Both Winn and Walker have better bat-to-ball skills than Gorman which was Gorman’s downfall for the most part. His swing and miss was brutal in big situations. Overall I think we’re good…..What say y’all??