The Mariners finally ended their postseason drought, and took a step further in October with a dramatic sweep of the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Series before falling to the Astros in the ALDS. Now, the Mariners are looking to shed their other ignominious label as the only one of the 30 MLB teams that has never reached the World Series.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Julio Rodriguez, OF: $195MM through 2034 (based on multiple club and player options, deal could be worth up to $455MM through the 2039 season)
- Luis Castillo, SP: $101MM through 2027 (conditional option for 2028, either a $25MM vesting option for Castillo or a $5MM club option for the Mariners)
- Robbie Ray, SP: $94MM through 2026 (Ray can opt out after 2024 season)
- J.P. Crawford, SS: $41MM through 2026
- Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $24MM through 2024 (includes $2MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2025)
- Evan White, 1B: $20MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; Mariners also hold $11MM club option for 2027 with $1MM buyout, and $12.5MM club option for 2028 with $1MM buyout)
- Marco Gonzales, SP: $18.5MM through 2024 (no buyout on $15MM club option for 2025)
- Jesse Winker, OF: $8.25MM through 2023
- Chris Flexen, SP/RP: $8MM through 2023
- Andres Munoz, RP: $6MM through 2025 (Mariners hold club options worth $6MM in 2026, $8MM in 2027, $10MM in 2028)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Luke Weaver (5.112): $3MM
- Tom Murphy (5.092): $1.9MM
- Diego Castillo (4.118): $2.9MM
- Paul Sewald (4.072): $3.6MM
- Ryan Borucki (4.066): $1.1MM
- Casey Sadler (4.035): $1.025MM
- Dylan Moore (4.000): $2MM
- Erik Swanson (3.096): $1.4MM
- Luis Torrens (3.091): $1.2MM
- Ty France (3.089): $4.7MM
- Abraham Toro (2.149): $1.4MM
- Kyle Lewis (2.146): $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Murphy, Borucki, Sadler, Torrens
Other Financial Commitments
- $3.75MM owed to the Mets as part of the December 2018 Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade
Total 2023 commitments: $96.125MM
Total future commitments: $536.07MM
Free Agents
The Mariners got a jump on some offseason business in August and September when Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo were both signed to contract extensions. Since 2022 was only Rodriguez’s rookie season, there was less urgency to lock up the burgeoning superstar immediately, and yet the complex and potentially record-setting deal (that could span most of the next two decades) underlined the Mariners’ commitment to Rodriguez as the new face of Seattle baseball.
Castillo would’ve been a free agent after the 2023 season, and in signing him through at least the 2027 season, Seattle doubled down on its commitment to the right-hander after already paying a big prospect price to acquire him from the Reds at the trade deadline. Extending Castillo also represents the Mariners’ latest investment in their starting rotation, which now consists of two high-paid stars (Castillo and Robbie Ray), two homegrown talents in their pre-arbitration years (George Kirby and Logan Gilbert), and two veterans on reasonable contracts (Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen).
Of course, Flexen wasn’t a starter for much of the second half, as he was moved to the bullpen once Castillo came aboard. He still amassed enough innings to hit a vesting threshold in his initial two-year, $4.75MM deal with the Mariners, thus assuring Flexen of an $8MM salary in 2023. Flexen and Gonzales have pretty similar profiles as low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurlers, though Gonzales has a much more established track record of limiting hard contact, as well as just a longer track record as an established Major League starter.
With six starting candidates for five rotation spots, it can be assumed that Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, and Kirby aren’t going anywhere. That leaves Gonzales and Flexen as possible trade candidates if the M’s did want to deal from this apparent surplus, and Flexen already reportedly received some interest from other teams prior to the deadline. Flexen is the younger and less expensive of the two, and had a 3.73 ERA/5.00 SIERA and 0.7 fWAR over 137 2/3 innings in 2022, while Gonzales had a 4.13 ERA/4.99 SIERA and only 0.1 fWAR in 183 frames. Those numbers slightly favor Flexen, but as his SIERA implies, the advanced metrics weren’t impressed with his work last year.
Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard, and Bryce Miller represent Seattle’s next wave of young pitchers, with all three expected to make their Triple-A debuts to start off the 2023 season. If all goes well, at least one of those prospects could be ready to jump to the majors later in 2023, perhaps becoming a new sixth starter/swingman type in their first taste of the big leagues. Or, the Mariners could possibly acquire a veteran for such a role in the offseason, if one of Gonzales or Flexen was traded.
The other option, naturally, is for the M’s to just stand pat with what is already a strong rotation mix. The Mariners got an unusual amount of good fortune with the health of their starting pitchers in 2022, and they might just want to keep both Gonzales and Flexen in the fold as additional depth, considering how rare it is for a team to dodge the injury bug for two straight years.
Then again, it’s also pretty rare for a team to post consecutive years of dominance in one-run games. The Mariners followed up their 33-19 mark in one-run games in 2021 with a 34-22 record last season, defying the conventional wisdom that teams “should” generally finish around .500 in such close contests. Seattle again beat those odds thanks in large part to an outstanding bullpen that should return mostly intact.
The unpredictable nature of relief pitching means that probably not all of Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Erik Swanson, Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee, and Matt Brash will continue to pitch as well as they did in 2022, yet that is still quite a core group to have in place as the Mariners look for a few more reinforcements. Trading from that group is also a possibility, as just like with the rotation, the Mariners’ pitching depth gives them some leverage in exploring deals. As noted, any of the top prospect starters could also break into the majors as relievers, adding more depth to the pen.
In terms of big-league additions, the M’s already made a move by claiming Luke Weaver off waivers from Kansas City. Weaver’s first full season as a relief pitcher resulted in a 6.56 ERA over 35 2/3 innings with the Royals and Diamondbacks, but his advanced metrics indicate that Weaver was quite unlucky to post such an ugly ERA. There isn’t much left-handed depth in the relief corps, though the M’s could at least tender Ryan Borucki a contract and keep him around. Seattle is also likely to explore re-signing Matt Boyd after he delivered some solid late-season work, but Boyd might prefer a clearer path to a starting job now that he is further removed from his September 2021 flexor tendon surgery.
While the Mariners have one of the more stable pitching situations of any team in baseball, their lineup has several question marks. Improving the position-player mix will surely be the priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto this winter, and given Dipoto’s signature aggressiveness, nothing can be ruled out. Signing a major free agent, trading pitching for hitting, trading a younger position player for a more established bat — all of these options and more could be on the table.
There should be a good amount of payroll space to work with, as Roster Resource projects the M’s around $131.5MM in 2023 player payroll (including arbitration estimates), with probably a few million to be shaved off that total via non-tenders. This leaves Dipoto with plenty of spending capacity before he even reaches the Mariners’ team-record $158MM payroll from 2018, and it also seems quite possible ownership might provide some more funds to help keep the playoff revenues rolling. Swapping Gonzales or Flexen would be a way of reallocating some money that is already on the books, and the Mariners could perhaps take a flier on another undesirable contract by trading Evan White, who no longer seems to be in the team’s long-term plans.
For a 90-win team, Seattle doesn’t have a ton of positions settled heading into 2023. Rodriguez will play center field, J.P. Crawford will ostensibly play shortstop (more on that later), Ty France is slated for first base, Eugenio Suarez for third base, and Cal Raleigh slugged his way into establishing himself as the starting catcher once Tom Murphy’s season was cut short by shoulder surgery. Either Murphy or Luis Torrens could be non-tender candidates, as neither can be optioned back to the minor leagues.
Jesse Winker will receive at least a share of everyday duty in left field, though he will be trying to re-establish himself after an underwhelming first season in Seattle. Winker hit only .219/.344/.344 over 547 plate appearances, with a reversal of his career-long splits; he struggled badly against right-handed pitching in 2022, while actually posting decent numbers against southpaws. If Winker can regain his old form next season, that would alone help the Mariners add some more pop to the batting order, though his struggles were somewhat mitigated by Suarez (also acquired from the Reds in basically a salary dump as part of the Winker trade) rediscovering his hitting stroke once joining the M’s.
Between Winker, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic, Sam Haggerty, and utilityman Dylan Moore, the Mariners may have plenty of options for the corner outfield positions….or none, at least for a team that hopes to contend. Lewis is still working his way back from a torn meniscus in 2021, and while he hit well in Triple-A last year, he struggled over 62 PA in the majors. Trammell is only 25 years old and is a former top-100 prospect, and he did manage roughly league-average offense in a part-time role last season, but it remains to be seen if he still grow into being a lineup regular or if he might be a fourth-outfielder type. Haggerty might have hit his own fourth-outfielder ceiling, though he did play quite well in part-time duty in 2022. Kelenic is a former consensus top-10 prospect, but he has looked totally overmatched at the plate in 558 PA at the big league level.
There is enough potential in this group that the M’s could just roll the dice and hope at least one player breaks out as a reliable everyday option to slot alongside Rodriguez. As such, Dipoto might wait until closer to the trade deadline to see if any upgrades are necessary to the outfield or DH spot. Carlos Santana might not be re-signed after posting middling numbers in 2022, and Seattle could just cycle several players into DH duty unless a more consistent bat is needed.
Trading from this outfield group is another possibility, if the Mariners perhaps tried to package one or two of the controllable outfielders to a rebuilding team with an established veteran available. Such a deal could conceivably happen with or without Mitch Haniger re-signing, though a reunion with Haniger could be the smoothest answer.
Haniger carries plenty of injury baggage. He missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from a ruptured testicle, core muscle surgery and back surgery. He was then limited to only 57 games in 2022 due to a high ankle sprain (which required a 60-day injured list stint) as well as a two-week absence recovering from COVID-19. With this recent history in mind, Haniger could be a candidate to accept a qualifying offer, except the Mariners may not want to offer $19.65MM on a one-year deal. Not issuing a QO, of course, would mean the Mariners wouldn’t get any compensation if he signed elsewhere, and any number of teams will surely have interest in adding Haniger to their rosters.
Seattle might also explore other free agent outfielders beyond Haniger, in search of a player who could provide somewhat comparable offense on a less-expensive one-year deal than the cost of a qualifying offer. On paper, the M’s have the need and the payroll flexibility to be part of the Aaron Judge conversation, and it’s probably safe to assume the team will check in with Judge’s representatives. But, there’s a reason Dipoto is known as “Trader Jerry” as opposed to “Signer Jerry” — the executive generally turns to the trade market to make his biggest moves, rather than any huge splashes in the free agent pool.
Then again, Ray was signed for $115MM last winter, which already signals a change in Dipoto’s preferred player-acquisition strategy as the Mariners move into win-now mode. Dipoto has already indicated he plans to explore the shortstop market this winter, with such notables as Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson headlining a deep class.
The catch is the M’s might not necessarily be viewing any of these shortstops as shortstops, since Dipoto’s stated “great preference” is to keep Crawford at shortstop and use any new infielder as a second baseman. This seems to close the door on the chances of Adam Frazier being re-signed, which isn’t surprising since the former All-Star struggled through a rough 2022 season. It also reaffirms the Mariners’ commitment to Crawford, who was already signed a contract extension back in April.
Dipoto was also adamant last winter that Crawford was Seattle’s everyday shortstop, which seemed to somewhat limit the Mariners’ involvement in last offseason’s deep shortstop class, even though the M’s did have interest in such players as Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. It is worth noting that Dipoto’s most recent statements seemed at least a touch less committed to Crawford as a shortstop, saying “we’re not going to close the door to anything in that regard,” and that Crawford “does a very good job in anything that we asked him to do.”
Moving Crawford to second base could be the more logical move. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this subject in greater detail back in August, as Crawford’s glovework declined sharply in the view of public defensive metrics (-11 Outs Above Average, -3 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.9 UZR/150). Crawford was dealing with some knee problems last year and therefore might perform closer to his 2020 Gold Glove form when healthy, but a shift over to second base would also help him from a defensive perspective.
Internal options like Moore, Abraham Toro, or even Haggerty and France could help out at second base in a pinch, yet the keystone definitely seems like the Mariners’ top need on the diamond. If the M’s don’t move Crawford or can’t convince one of the big free agent shortstops to change positions, another route would be to just sign a proper second baseman. Brandon Drury and former Mariner Jean Segura (if the Phillies decline their club option on Segura) could be targeted, or Seattle could gauge trade possibilities with middle-infield heavy teams like the Guardians, Reds, or Cardinals.
For a team that thrived on its success in tight games, there is some irony in the fact that the Mariners lost all three ALDS games to Houston by a combined total of four runs. The M’s are hoping the narrow nature of that series is an omen of how they’re starting to close the gap with the Astros for AL West supremacy, and the 2022-23 offseason could be one of the most important in franchise history as Seattle might be a few finishing touches away from a championship contender.
Resign Haniger, Boyd on team friendly incentive based contracts.
Sign Xander to play second AND SS when necessary.
Let the log jam in left field sort itself out, or go heavy on the trade deadline with what you have in abundance for what you need then. We have Sadler coming back into the bullpen mix, and enough talent stacked up to make adjustments to the bullpen from within the organization.
I like all these ideas but, despite his injury history, I don’t think Haniger will have to settle for a team-friendly deal. Given that the majority of his time missed was due to a ruptured testicle and a setback from a ruptured testicle, I think someone out there will bet on a couple seasons of (mostly) healthy production. If I’m wrong and we’re able to retain him on a team-friendly deal, though, I’m all for it. He’s the kind of bat that provides stability to a lineup. He would be an excellent 5 hole hitter.
A solidified 1-6 of Julio, Bogaerts, France, Geno, Haniger, and Raleigh looks great on paper. JP bookending it is not bad, and as you mentioned, the other spots can work themselves out.
It’s been more than just the testicle injury. He had an oblique injury in 17 and a herniated disc after the sports hernia was repaired, plus a broken finger. All that added up to a lot of time off. I think he’ll sign a team friendly deal.
cmurphy- I’m not saying he’s never been hurt, just that the ruptured testicle skewed it to make it look like he’s more injury prone than he is. I can’t remember the exact number but over 50% of his time spent on the IL in his career was related to his testicle injury. I think it was 57%.
Brian Reynolds for Kelenic Flexen and Diego Castillo then sign Trea Turner or Carlos Correa QO Haniger… Lineup of Turner/Correa France Julio Suarez Haniger Reynolds Raleigh Crawford Rotating DH…Maybe sign Abreu depending on money..
The Pirates are unlikely to take on Chris Flexen’s 2023 salary of $8 million and Diego Castillo’s projected 2023 salary of $2.9 million, especially when Bryan Reynolds is owed only $6.75 million next year. Flexen comes with four years of increasingly expensive team control while Castillo has only two years of team control.
We can replace Castillo or flexen with Hancock
That’s not the problem.
The problem is the Pirates taking increasingly expensive players with only four and two years of team control, Pittsburgh is likely to target players with six years of team control.
Kelenic and Hancock have that covered..What’s the third guy we need in the deal?
Hancock isn’t going anywhere especially as a throw in. He will replace Marco after the AS break maybe a game or 2 before.
I think sign Haniger to a 2-3 year fair deal. They are in the position to show other players they aren’t going to run cheap. With the payroll they can offer him a team friendly deal. Maybe with a team friendly option.
I don’t care how well Twinker hit anywhere or if he was guaranteed to hit like he did his best year. He is not a fit in the locker room. Way too many rumblings to be just a couple guys.
I also believe JP will make the move to 2nd if they sign Turner or Correa. He was the guy I wanted Seattle to draft but no. Would be good to get him now.
Also it looks like Julio will be lead off for the foreseeable future. I know there are guys who don’t like Servias and think his roster is poorly done. I can see his point though he is fast we get better at the plate and he is fast. Guys like him you want to get the most out of.
Did I say trade Tweaker already? If not trade his a$$ to a team he doesn’t want to go to. Just get him gone. Sign Turner and Judge and I would say we had a nice winter. I think with Kelenic he needs to be going through counseling right now to take some of the pressure off. Is or did his dad put such lofty ideas in his head he has to hit better. Get rid of the demons that are screaming in there. Anyway that is my wish list for Santa Dipoto. Pick away as you will. I know judge is a long shot but still nice to try never know.
The other thing I keep forgetting is the pitcher coming over from Japan is he worth going after or save it for Ohtani? That could make us real deep on the bump.
I believe Hancock is their best trade ship to get one of the bats they need
I think Turner would be the best fit but he also comes with the highest price of the pending SS free agents. I don’t think the M’s will come close to $260 to $300 million it will take to sign him.
Xander is intriguing because he may have to potentially move to 2nd later on and his contract would be much more palatable at around 6 years $160 million.
I think the M’s offer Haniger a QO but it doesn’t appear he would be willing to accept a team friendly deal(at least from all local reports on the matter). Someone will offer him 4 years $70 million and honestly for the M’s he’s not worth that long term risk. I would much prefer they sign Andrew Benintendi who slots perfectly in the 2 hole behind J-Rod and balances out the lineup with his LH bat.
Trader Jerry being who he is will likely deal from his glut of their OF and SP, but I could see him moving these pieces to add to the farm as opposed to the MLB roster. Not only to restock some talent recently lost but for trade line deals later in the year.
Hancock unfortunately isn’t worth much anymore. He certainly didn’t pitch like an elite prospect last year in AA, particularly on the K/BB line, which is what most organizations focus on. He just isn’t missing bats.
Winker has zero trade value. And they’re not just going to cut him. He’ll have a share of LF and probably even more of DH duties. Hopefully he can get healthy and come back like the hitter he was in ’21. Because he was brutal to watch out there last season. He did walk a ton. So I am cautiously optimistic he can turn it around.
Pirates aren’t giving up Reynolds for anything other than a huge package of prospects
Does anyone know when the M’s offseason chat is to take place?
Sometime soon
Super helpful
I would love to see the Ms go all in on say Judge and one of Turner/Correa/Bogaerts. Though not sure how the rest of the fanbase would accept Correa in SEA. If you want to win tho….
Honestly I’ll take Trea over Correa
And I’ll take either at short over Crawford. My preference is Correa but Turner would be a welcome addition to the club.
DiPoto has been clear that Crawford is his SS and there are enough teams in need of a SS, no reason for Turner or Bogaerts to accept being moved off SS
Did you read the article? That’s not necessarily the case now.
“It is worth noting that Dipoto’s most recent statements seemed at least a touch less committed to Crawford as a shortstop, saying “we’re not going to close the door to anything in that regard,”
Reading comprehension skills would do some good
@sodo, do you read anything but MLTR? The writer chose to take one small clip from a larger statement. Here is the full clip – DiPoto is clear that Crawford is the SS.
“Our great preference would be that we can land a shortstop that would like to go play second base,” Dipoto said with a chuckle. “But we’re not going to close the door to anything in that regard. J.P. is our shortstop and he’s our emotional leader.
WampumWalloper;
Unfortunately you are correct. MLBTR tends to take a one line snippet – oftentimes from a questionable source – and use it as fact in dozens of articles throughout the off season.
Been watching this for years. I already saw one the other day but had forgotten who it was about because I knew the source was just politicking through the media.
Often after signings are completed it comes out in follow-up press conferences by agents / owners and / or players that what was written was never a consideration.
Turner is my first choice. Bogaerts next. Correa, No. Of course if the Ms do sign Correa, I’ll get over it, but as of now I can pretend I won’t.
I don’t think the same team will get both Judge and Turner, but of course that would be great.
The Cardinals are not a “middle infield heavy” team. Paul DeJong is unlikely to generate any interest whatsoever, Brendan Donovan profiles better as a utility player and Nolan Gorman seems most likely to return to third base (following a trade) or DH vs. stay at second base under the new rules. Given that those are the Cardinals middle infield options (in addition to Tommy Edman), St. Louis could actually shop FOR a middle infielder this off season.
One option not mentioned is Kolton Wong, either via trade (if the Brewers pick up his option) or as a free agent. .
I was wondering the same about the Reds. It’s unlikely the Mariners can pry away Jonathan India, and no way they’d want Mike Moustakas. Is he referring to Kyle Farmer? Everyone else Cincy has is still a prospect — including players obtained in recent trades from Seattle.
I just want Brash to get another crack at the rotation. Way too soon to decide he’s relief-only.
But, he was pretty filthy in the pen…
Exactly, his stuff is incredible. If he can start, he should, starters are much more valuable and scarce.
I wouldn’t argue if he can figure it out… but I can also see a monster 1-2 punch to end games with Munoz…
Does Kyle Lewis have any kind of role with this team or is he toast at this point? I’m guessing 4th Outfielder/DH on occasion if he’s not traded.
I don’t understand signing an All Star SS to move to 2B when J.P. Crawford moving to 2B would probably make more sense (how much more money will the M’s have to offer to get any of them to agree to play 2B?)
If Santana is willing to take an incentive laden deal he might be worth bringing back as a DH/backup to France at 1B. Good veteran presence and will probably see a decent rebound with the new rules affecting the shift
Lewis is toast. His knees will never allow him to be productive again, which is a shame.
The Mariners uncertainty regarding Crawford seems similar to that experienced by the Phillies, which led to him ultimately being traded. Crawford went from the Phillies infield anchor for the next decade, to out of the organization in fairly short order. The Phillies front office developed doubts about Crawford, and now it appears to be the same in Seattle.
The Phil’s would’ve been better off paying Jpc’s minimum & then much smaller arb salaries for a couple years rather than paying what they did for Didi & Segura.
Hindsight being 20/20, you’re probably right. But the last time we saw Crawford in a Phillies uniform, it looked like every pitcher was knocking the bat out of his hands. He went from top prospect to trade fodder in a hurry.
DiPoto does not seem to be doubting Crawford, this is from 2 weeks ago
“From the time he stepped on the field here for the Mariners, J.P. has done nothing but make positive contributions,” Dipoto said. “I think he connects with our fans in a way that very few players have in the course of my time here. He has a way of elevating the emotion of our team in a way that very few in our clubhouse have that ability to do so. He’ll line up for us opening day at shortstop and the goal is to find someone to put around him. If we do find someone who plays shortstop that person would very likely move to second base, but that’s a discussion for then and not now.”
To me, it looks like DiPoto is shopping for a new top-tier shortstop, while smartly avoiding shat-tilking his current shortstop.
Sign Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts, move Crawford to 2B. Sign Brandon Nimmo, he can be the leadoff hitter. Re-sign Haniger too, he can play OF and can also rotate through DH with other guys. Trade Flexen or Gonzales along with Winker and get what they can, maybe some more arms for the pen or some more bench depth. Moore and Haggerty ought to be fine as utility guys. Not sure they need Toro or Torrens. Don’t bring back Santana, maybe bring back Boyd. Keep Kelenic in the minors to start the season for work on his hitting. When Miller, Dollard or Hancock is ready, trade either Flexen or Gonzales (whoever is left). I don’t think it will be too difficult to make some solid moves that can make the team even better for next season. This is a great time to be a Mariners fan!
Welcome to Seattle Xander!
I’d be a little surprised if Seattle targeted Bogaerts for the simple fact that he hasn’t hit well in AL West stadiums, or pitcher-friendly stadiums in general.
He’s a great fit in the AL East.
This is a pretty underwhelming offseason plan. If Seattle continues to cheap out in spite of the fact that they’re now in a very good position to make multiple deep playoff runs for a long time and have the resources to go get a star player (like Turner, Bogaerts, Correa, Judge, Nimmo, etc.), they would literally shoot themselves in the foot. They have a strong core (Julio, France, Raleigh, the pitching staff, Crawford). They have swung big trades to land Castillo, Winker (who had a down year but is a prime bounceback candidate imo), and Suarez. They have some pretty big question marks at 2B as Frazier was a 1 year stopgap and had a mediocre 2022, and the corner outfield with Haniger now a free agent and none of the young prospects besides Julio have really been able to take a step forward.
Jarred Kelenic’s Beer Can;
It’s nice that a team has the salary space to pay a player around age 30 a salary of $35m-plus in 2023 to “fill a hole”. However, said players agent wants well over 5 years of that sort of salary. This is how teams wind up limiting their future and wind up like the White Sox are today and have been for a year or two; the Yankees have been for years; and the Red Sox have been since their last WS appearance….among other teams.
Under every team outlook article I see posters saying that they want to sign 2-4 of the top free agents. That’s not going to happen.
Watch over the next 3 or so years how the Rangers box themselves into a corner.
The Seattle franchise that “continues to cheap out” has handed out three nine-figure contracts in the past year.
How many teams can make that claim?
muskie73;
How much longer can they do that for?
Do you know that player sometimes get hurt and miss large amounts of time? Really messes up those long-term contracts.
The issue is: How much longer should the Mariners hand out nine-figure contracts?
Every contract carries a risk. On average at least one in three significant contracts does not produce the desired results. That’s the nature of the business.
They go to the playoffs by developing young talent and making great trades. Now you want them to give out mega contracts to 30 year olds. I would just sit back and trust the process that got you to this point and let management do their job.
So let’s assume they don’t sign any free agents at all. What do you do to address second base? Whom do you trade for, and what do you give up>
Trade for Ketel Marte
Kevin Newman or Tony Kemp. Young far off upside talent that you have some concerns about.
Evan White?
Evan White is in the same category as Kelenic, but more expensive. He’s a “wait and see.” So far Evan White hasn’t even come close to the Mendoza line.
Kelenic must be kicking himself for refusing the contract the Ms offered him a couple years ago.
Sign Correa and move Crawford to 2b. Don’t dither!
Correa’s agent is Scott Boras. No thank you on that contract. Also, I’m not over the Houston cheating scandal. So there’s two strikes. I’ll take Turner or Bogaerts instead. Trea has played CF and 2B to go along with SS, and is lot quicker on the base paths than Carlos. Same with Xander, who also happened to be the 6th best hitter at getting on base.
Sure Ben, “take Turner or Bogaerts instead”. Mighty big of you.
And while you’re at it, is it alright with you if they sign Rodon, deGrom, and Judge? How about Nimmo as well? He lives in the West. He can be a back-up in case Julio Rodríguez gets hurt.
Trade Flexen-Moore + a prospect for O’Neill; re-sign Boyd as 5/6th starter & bullpen and flip Marco for Schoop; sign Joc P as DH/OF
Are the Mariners still “manipulating Kelenic’s service time, or is that not a thing any more?
Based on his results so far Kelenic will not have to put in 6 years service time to become a free agent, could happen much sooner.
We can be thankful that no one in this bunch of commenters is making any of the Mariners’ decisions (or any other team’s for that matter).
Turner is going back to the east coast.
Those are reports I have heard as well, but money talks. I just don’t think the M’s will be the highest bidder for him.
Just like Gerrit Cole was going to California, or Ohtani signing with a small-market team?
There are no guarantees in baseball.
Here’s a quote from Trea himself regarding his approach to free agency (from Dodgers Nation)….
“From multiple organizations, you’d want to know what they expect or where it’s going or what they’re trying to do — kind of a vision,” he said. “Whatever that vision is it is. But I think that’s mandatory.
“You need to know how the next few years look and how that pertains to you and your family and your career,” he added. “It’s definitely a factor in picking a team.”
Few teams have futures as bright as Seattle’s the next few years.
More, from the OC Register…
“Yeah, I’m an East Coast guy. But with free agency, you get a chance to pick and control it as much as you can in your entire career. I’m open to anything really. Everything is in play.”
I love Turner but I don’t see the M’s being the highest bidder or go higher that 200 million on any FA coming up with the exception of Ohtani.
Well, Dipoto and Hollander came out and said they’re interested in a star shortstop and we just watched them hand out a massive extension for Julio that could make him the highest paid player in baseball history if it maxes out, plus a significant deal for Ray last offseason and an extension for Castillo just a month or so ago.
They could add 70m AAV, still stay under 180, and still have the money for more extensions and FAs as other contracts expire. Everything we’ve seen suggests they’re going to push in their chips and the timing couldn’t be better.
Virtually all of the star free agent shortstops have received contracts running through age 37 (or less). Lindor has the largest AAV at just over 34m. So, the bar is probably set at a high of 8 years, 272.
Not many contenders have the kind of financial flexibility to add that kind of salary, but Seattle is certainly one of them.
Still think that money is better spent trying to get Judge to Seattle as well as signing Diaz. I still vote trading for Ketel Marte to play 2B.
A lineup of JRod, Marte, Judge, Geno, Raleigh, France, Winker, Crawford, Kelenic is very solid, and we would again have one of the best defenses in all of baseball.
As much as I love Turner… if you were going to do that, do it for Corey Seager last year. Trea relies on speed, and that is going to be a 10+ year deal. I hesitate giving anyone that much and paying them until they’re almost 40 when speed is such a big part of their game.
At this point, Kelenic isn’t a solid part of any MLB lineup. And who do you give up for Marte, who had a relatively off-season last year?
@wayneroo…. a few answers to your questions
Kelenic:
He just had his age 22 season. The fact that anyone writes Kelenic off and calls him a bust is absolutely insane. Virtually no player in the MLB today had success at 21 or 22. The ones that did are the superstars of the league and can be counted on two hands. You’re talking Harper, Trout, Vlad Jr., Soto, and a small handful of others. I think people simply forget that at 21 and 22, most of the players in the league right now were just graduating college and getting drafted into the minors only to make their debuts around 23 or 24, figure it out around 25ish, and then hit their prime at 27ish.
Goodness, look at our own team as an example. People love Raleigh now (as do I), but at age 21, he was playing at Florida State and Low A, and at 22 was hitting .228 at AA. Imagine if he had been thrown into an MLB playoff race then. He then came up to the majors at age 24 and hit .180 before being who he is now at 25. Lewis didn’t even debut until he was 23 and was ROTY at 24. France was 24 when he was called up and hit .234. Haniger was called up at 25 and hit .229. Geno came up at 22 and hit .242 with 4 HRs in 277 PA. Winker also didn’t debut until he was 23, and even though he had success as a contact guy, he has yet to post above average defensive WAR in his entire career. How about pitchers… Gilbert came up at 24, as did both Castillo and Kirby. Point is, writing a guy off at 22 is silly, especially when most of the league’s best players were in college then.
I also believe Kelenic suffered from some bad luck too offensively, as he only had a .167 BAbip despite a 35% Hard Hit rate. Kelenic was still good for 0.3 dWAR too though. Add the changes to the shift coming in 2023 to a more normalized luck, and we could easily see the Kelenic we all hoped we’d see.
Ketel Marte:
I don’t think it would actually take a ton to get him with the right pieces. The DBacks should have their top prospects making their debuts sometime in 2023 with their window of contention likely starting in like 2025ish. Marte doesn’t fit with that at all. Because of that, I would say something to the sort of like Trammell and maybe like Marco Gonzales to offset salary a bit. The other need they will have is much the same that the Mariners had… young pitchers that will be making their debuts, but not used to the full season workload. Inning-eaters like Marco or Flexen could be that for them. Offer them Trammell, Marco, and some other prospects that fall into that contention window, and I think he could be had. Think like DeLoach or someone like that.
In regards to his “off season”…. he also played in a crappy lineup as part of a team that finished 4th at 14 games below .500. Throw him onto a playoff team in between guys like JRod and Geno where he gets some pitches to hit, and I think it’s a different story. He’s a switch hitter, and T-Mobile Park plays well for lefties. Either way, he was worth 2.1 oWAR in that down year, which is much better than Frazier’s 0.7..
So what about his defense and his -0.6 dWAR in 2022? The Mariners are notorious for their focus on defense, especially before games. You know who else happened to have a -0.6 dWAR the year before coming to Seattle… Eugenio Suarez. He was worth -0.6 dWAR in 2021 and turned it into a 0.1 dWAR in 2022. Marte was worth 1.5 WAR overall, so turning that defense around would have made him a 2 WAR player at 2B. Marte has also been worth plus dWAR in every season before 2021, so it’s not like it would be a massive turnaround since he’s done it before.
That’s my thinking.
For curious Mariner fans, we’ve been doing offseason plans since 2013; posting them on our blog since 2016. Some of you already know about them. Give it a go if you’re interested.
hardballviahardcore.blogspot.com/2022/10/incoming-…
It would be surprising if Tom Murphy and Casey Sadler were non-tendered or traded. The bigger question(s) are what to do with Kyle Lewis and Luis Torrens, whom was solid after a stint in Tacoma, and which RHRPs make the opening day roster pending injuries.
Good time to be a Mariner fan. This is the deepest I’ve ever seen the organization’s pitching and they’re just a few bats short of potential greatness.
Worth noting Toro is a non-tender/trade-candidate. He’s arbitration-eligible and clearly behind Moore & Haggerty on the depth-chart.
That said, Haggerty’s injury could influence a decision.
IMHO it would be a mistake to trade Flexen or Gonzales. Rotation depth is worth more to a contending team than any trade return they’d bring.
Flexen will earn 8m, Gonzales 6.75 (I think). If they want more experienced depth than their prospects, they could sign a rehabbing starter like Ross to a minor-league deal with incentives.
They could even feasibly trade Flexen for a SP with options, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense to suff a starter in the bullpen and either ice him, or use him in a relef role that others are better suited for.
Over the course of a season the sixth guy usually ends up in the rotation much of the time. But maybe they’ll get lucky and make it most of the way without anyone losing time to injury.
Over the course of the season, teams typically use 8-10 starting pitchers.
Most teams don’t stash starters in their bullpen, though, and Seattle isn’t an exception. We saw Flexen in the bullpen in September, but both he and Marco were left off the postseason roster.
Never say never, Seattle could do something creative, but with Weaver & Brash MLB-ready, plus Hancock & Dollard near-ready, and guys like Miller, Berroa and Woo rising quickly, there’s an argument that they already have sufficient depth.
I would be surprised if Flexen stays. Marco has been a key figure in the clubhouse and gave them 180+ innings of respectable baseball just as he always has. He projects well as a number 5.
We’ll see how things shake out, but they simply don’t have room for all these RHPs.
I think it’s a good measure of the Mariners’ progress. Gonzales went from being the ace to being the #5, and he hasn’t changed. ERA pretty close to 4.00 every year (but one).
Trade/sign bellinger. Sign bogerts. Sign JD Martinez. Flexen/winker dealt for reliever
Bellinger? Please, no.
Just a tad too late on JD. Plus if we did sign him, means we’d have to watch more of Winker in LF. No thank you. And neither can play 1B adequately. Furthermore, Jesse has zero trade value. Let him finish out his ’23 contract and walkoff into the sunset and go after Ohtani for the P/DH role next season. Nimmo, Judge, Turner, and Bogaerts would all be good options to lock up now.
I actually agree on the Bellinger idea, but disagree on the others.
Bellinger makes for an intriguing buy-lowish candidate, especially if the Dodgers get Judge. Lefty bats play well at T-Mobile Park.
For the relievers… we just need to sign Diaz. I hate closer-by-committee, and that eliminates that. Munoz and Murfee go to the 8th, Sewald and Castillo to the 7th, and Brash is the long relief guy.
JD and any of the FA shortstops don’t make sense as all would likely move to 2B, and the big ones in Turner and Dansby both likely want to be back on the East coast. I still stick to the idea of trading for Ketel Marte, but that might just be me. JD is just a DH, and we don’t need that.
I love your suggestion of signing Edwin Diaz to a FA contract. The best teams in MLB have deep BP’s. That would be 3 filthy High Leverage RPers in Diaz, Brash and Muñoz who are each capable of getting outs in any situation.
I’m not sure if you’re implying that Seattle has a BP by committee or if you’re just saying in general you don’t like that style of BP mgmt…..me neither! I love how Servais is managing our Pen now. Its neither a set closer or a closer by committee and its working! Look at the record in 1 Run margins over the last 2 yrs: that tells you all you need to know
@ayrbhoy the bullpen management has been good, but what I was saying is that I have never been fond of the closer by committee idea. I like the idea of one set guy that you go to who knows he’s in that role and knows to expect it.
I don’t think the Mariners intended on doing that, it just happened to be the case once Sewald started struggling down the stretch. Either way, we need a high leverage guy that’s proven, and Diaz would be that. Munoz is great, but remember, both Munoz and Sewald struggled heavily in the playoffs against the Blue Jays and Astros. Getting Diaz gives us a true closer while lessening the stress on the others.
What about Bellinger makes you think he will be successful again? As a Dodger fan I have been hoping for the past couple years, but he just gets worse. Some players have a bad year or two but recover, others never do. So as a cheap free agent, maybe. But in a trade, No.
Bellinger just had a ton of success early on, and he isn’t even in his prime right now as he’s only 26. T-Mobile Park plays well for lefties. He still hit 19 homeruns this year, so it’s more of just adding a lefty to their lineup that could play any of the outfield spots as well as 1B. Moving Bellinger back to a corner OF spot or 1B could help him as well, as CF can be a draining position.
Not saying he regains his MVP form, but he could very easily bump his average up a bit.
Can try to sign a Josh Bell to take rotating roll as Santana did but a much better lefty bat. Turner is the preferred SS but still feel players prefer not to sign in Seattle. They have so much travel time that it is something players consider
I agree about players not wanting the travel but that might change. With Castillo coming in and signing his extension says a lot. He has said he loved the city and the clubhouse. Others will look at that and ask him. He will be a great representative of the team.
The travel is a sore spot for me. The schedule needs to be revamped to get rid of some of the travel. How much sense does it make to go to NY then Florida then Texas. Come home for 2 or 3 series and a week and a half go back to NY then Florida Chicago then Cali. These are just hypothetical not actual travel but close to a couple trips. I know they have to work around other teams but send teams that can drive to half their games on those type of trips. Will still be less travel for them. Just my opinion.
I think I heard that something was being done to even out the traveling a bit.
Stevil can you send me that link in email? The email I will give you was for another site as a joke. It is not my personal 1. I was making fun of NFL refs. I also use it if I will be getting junk email from a site. I don’t read the stuff on there so you can send me stuff etc but most won’t be seen. On my phone the link won’t copy it. I don’t own a computer just phone and tablets.
Deannlandino@yahoo.com
Thanks.
I tried, I just got the mailer-demon.
You can try googling ‘hardball via hardcore’. It should pop up quickly.
The actual address is just hardballviahardcore.blogspot.com
OK I left the B out. Blandino he was an official then after a short career there moved to be in charge now he is a commentator for FOX I believe. He hum hos around until the white hat makes an announcement or the teams move. Is a official apologist usually. Was surprised when they brought him back was brutal his first year.
Off-season look should be trade Flexin and prospect(s) to Twins for Royce Lewis who won’t be available till mid season. Resign Frazier to 1 year prove it deal. If he don’t pan out again you have Lewis or mid-season trade to fill 2nd.
Sign Bell to 3-4 year deal to fill left handed power bat to rotate through DH and 1st.
Sign Nimmo or benditendi for outfield.
Resign Haniger to 2 year deal which I feel all he’ll find at age 34 and an injury plagued career.
Lineup
Nimmo
France
Rodriguez
Bell
Haniger
Suarez
Raleigh
Frazier
Crawford
That seems a lot longer lineup
Sorry that’s not enough to win a world series…
Right and you know. So you must be the type that says. Go sign Judge, Turner, DeGrom and Correa. Trade for Acuna and Reynolds and guarantee a WS. There isn’t guarantees in baseball but the money they sign for. It’s a better roster then what they ran out there the previous year on paper. They still have to play just like the Dodgers. All that money spent and great on paper but no WS. That’s why they play the game
You might want to check the results of the 2020 World Series, then take a hard look at the season Frazier had and how Bell performed with San Diego.
We all have our ideas of what might work and what won’t work, but if you listen carefully to what Dipoto & Hollander have said, it’s pretty clear that 2B is an area they’re looking to boost significantly.
They also suggested it was highly unlikely Santana returns. The same reasoning would apply to Bell: They don’t need a DH who can only play 1B.
And they said they where going to go sign a few bats last year and what they came away with in free agency was…..Rob Ray
They said they would like to add offense. Please, take note of the modal verbs. You rarely hear a GM say something definitively.
And they did add bats last year. Winker was one of the best LHHs before this year, Suárez had been an excellent third baseman before the injury wand was primed for a rebound. Even Frazier was a great contact hitter before this season. Winker & Frazier didn’t live up to expectations, but Suárez was huge fir Seattle’s offense.
Don’t be surprised if we see a star middle-infielder and a corner-outfielder added. Those are the glaring holes. It’s very possible we’ll see 3-4 bats brought in, depending on what they do with Winker and whether or not Haniger returns.
So much hinges on the Middle Infield positions.
If they cannot sign any of the Big 4,
I would love for the M’s to explore trades for any of the following to pair with JP:
Brandon Lowe
Tim Anderson
Jonathan India
Willy Adames
Jeff McNeil
Jorge Polanco
I still personally hope they can resign Haniger to a 2-3 year mutually beneficial incentive-laden deal. But pursuit of any of the following would be most welcome (in place of or in addition to Haniger):
Teoscar Hernandez
Hunter Renfroe
Ian Happ
My perfect Mariners off-season would be:
1. Sign Aaron Judge. He plays RF full-time, obviously
2. Trade for Ketel Marte. He takes over as the full-time 2B
3. Sign Edwin Diaz. He takes over the closer role to eliminate the closer-by-committee, which moves Munoz into the setup role and Murfee/Sewald/Castillo into the 7th inning. Brash remains the long reliever.
4. Trade Marco and/or Flexen. One fills the 5th starter spot until Hancock or one of the other young guys can take over that 5 spot in the rotation
5. Kelenic plays every day in LF, Haggerty is the super UTIL guy, and Winker DH’s
Lineup: JRod, Marte, Judge, Geno, Raleigh, France, Winker, Crawford, Kelenic
Rotation: Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, Kirby, Hancock/Miller
Trea is either going back to the Dodgers, or somewhere on the East Coast. Dansby is the same. No use get Xander and switching him to 2B.
If Judge signs elsewhere, then re-sign Haniger for a year and go after Ohtani next off-season. He takes over DH when Winker leaves after 2023 and fits into the rotation in the 3 spot to keep a ton of pressure off of him.
Agreed on all but item 5 (Kelenic). He has earned an everyday role with the glove, but has he earned it yet with the bat? Maybe he should be in AAA longer, get better at hitting breaking pitches? He was showing more patience at the plate this year, but may still have a ways to go.
I think too many people are writing off Kelenic too quickly, and it kinda surprises me at how they think it’s just normal and expected for him to succeed immediately. I wrote this above in a different response too, so it’s going to be copy and pasted, but it gives my reasoning for it.
Kelenic just had his age 22 season. The fact that anyone writes Kelenic off and calls him a bust is absolutely insane. Virtually no player in the MLB today had success at 21 or 22. The ones that did are the superstars of the league and can be counted on two hands. You’re talking Harper, Trout, Vlad Jr., Soto, and a small handful of others. I think people simply forget that at 21 and 22, most of the players in the league right now were just graduating college and getting drafted into the minors. Most go on to make their debuts around 23 or 24, figure it out around 25ish, and then hit their prime at 27ish.
Look at our own team as an example. People love Raleigh now (as do I), but at age 21, he was playing at Florida State and Low A, and at 22 was hitting .228 at AA. He then came up to the majors at age 24 and hit .180 before being who he is now at 25. Lewis didn’t even debut until he was 23 and was ROTY at 24. France was 24 when he was called up and hit .234. Haniger was called up at 25 and hit .229. Geno came up at 22 and hit .242 with 4 HRs in 277 PA. Winker also didn’t debut until he was 23, and even though he had success as a contact guy, he has yet to post above average defensive WAR in his entire career. How about pitchers… Gilbert came up at 24, as did both Castillo and Kirby. Point is, writing a guy off at 22 is silly.
I also believe Kelenic suffered from some bad luck too offensively, as he only had a .167 BAbip despite a 35% Hard Hit rate. Kelenic was still good for 0.3 dWAR too though. Add the changes to the shift coming in 2023 to a more normalized luck, and we could easily see the Kelenic we all hoped we’d see.
One last piece of random info to further the point… look at even where our so-called targets were at age 21, the same age Kelenic was when he made his MLB debut in a playoff race.
– Trea Turner: Senior at NC State
– Dansby Swanson: Senior at Vanderbilt
– Judge: Senior at Fresno State
In short, Kelenic was a college kid thrown into a MLB playoff race too early. Let his maturity catch up to his skills, and he will be fine. Imagine if we had thrown any of those guys against major league pitching and called them a bust for failing.
He needs to be less bulky, and try to be more of an Austin Meadows type where he hits .270 with 25ish homeruns. Pair that with plus fielding, and that would be amazing. Lineup wise… you can place him in the 9-hole in front of JRod, where he should see some better pitches. He isn’t someone we need to hit in the middle of our lineup, so keep him back and let him ease into hitting more while providing plus defense.
That’s my two cents on Kelenic.
The bad part is with Kelenic they did a statistic and said nobody in the history of baseball has ever had a worse batting average or slugging percentage in that many at bats than Kelenic..In the history of baseball! I’m not 100% sold that he’s going to be anything other than a fourth outfielder late defensive replacement type
In the history of baseball? Keep in mind, these are different times with the shift, etc. He also had a .167 BAbip… he had really bad luck. With a little more normal luck and the changes to the shift next year, he could easily get into that .250 range. As I’ve mentioned in other replies… he’s also only 23. Remember, he made his debut at age 21, when the majority of the MLB was playing college at that point. At age 21, Raleigh was a senior at Florida State. Do you think if he was thrown into the majors at that point, he would have succeeded? It would have been silly to expect that.
Kelenic will be fine. He was called up way too early. His maturity will catch up to his skill set before too long here… usually happens around 24 or 25. Also remember, Raleigh hit .180 when he was called up at 24 before doing what he did this year.
The question is how do we fix his 10 cent head?…
This is the EXACT scenario I have been pushing we get for the past month. But if somehow we pull off a judge and Diaz, I would be ok running with Frazier in 2023 for 2B and then saving the trade for Bryan Reynolds instead.
Dipoto went after Reynolds strong in July 2021. Reynolds WAR in 2021 was 4.2, and 2.9 in 2022. I honestly think he could land him this offseason, especially if Kelenic was in the deal, plus others.. Bryan Reynolds is exactly the type of player we are “hoping” Kelenic turns into.
Our OF would be Reynolds/Julio/Judge
Here’s the thing with Seattle, our 2023 payroll after the estimated ARB salaries is only $103M. In 2018 our payroll was approx $165M. Seattle could easily get VERY aggressive with Judge and even go up to $50M, and still land Diaz and Reynolds and be about the same salary as 2018. Can you imagine putting Judge around all the youth in this team what Dipoto has structured? Wow. And then next offseason go after Ohtani which would push our salary in 2024 closer to $200M. All our players would be locked in for the next 5-7 years.
We wouldn’t have to touch our Farm System for at least the next 3-4 years, even if Dipoto made an aggressive trade for Bryan Reynolds he’s not a FA until 2026. I’m confident Dipoto in 3-4 years Dipoto will rebuild our Farm back up into the top #1-3.
We would own the next 6-10 years in the AL if Dipoto does all this.
The players got to be willing to sign here as well. Seattle doesn’t have the history of signing big name free agent bats off the market unless extreme overpayment happens. Everyone has pipe dreams of Judge, Turner and every big name out there. They’re going to be lucky if they come away with a mid tier bat and lucky if they get 2. Most bats Seattle gets are from trades and well I don’t expect it to change. Keep thinking every Superstar has Seattle circled for a destination as a free agent cause they don’t. It would be freaking awesome to get a Judge and so on but with lofty hopes and expectations. People are going to find themselves let down. They’ll go the trade route like always cause the player they get don’t have a choice coming to Seattle and hopefully like it here to be possibly extended.
Oh, the irony of your username given your comments.
Well reality is what it is. We all have hopes that we’ll get those bats in free agency but Dipoto finds them in trades. Sure this could be the year he signs a bat but me being realistic isn’t anything short of how things have gone since Dipoto arrived. But you can hate and we can see how things play out this off-season
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love a Trea Turner oh boy would the fan base be happy. But a glaring need on this team that people overlook is that Seattle needs a left handed bat and Bell fills that need. Not Winker after this last season which I hope he bounces back. But after last season he can’t be counted on being our left handed masher. Dipoto wants better on base% and less Ks. Well Bell and Nimmo fit that bill (Turner does also) and would find a leadoff hitter in Nimmo allowing Rodriguez to slide down in the order with Bell behind him protecting him. What I propose is very realistic and fits what this team needs
I’ve been thinking long and hard of what I would like to see the M’s do this off–season. A lot of folks are saying that the Mariners need to get player x without looking at the variables that will come I to play. you can’t pound a peg into a hole if you don’t know what the hole looks like.
Do you folks think that increasing the size of the bases, putting in a pitch clock, and limiting how many times a pitcher can throw over to 1st base will have an impact on the game? How about not being able to have such radical shifts? what kind of impacts will these changes create? To me, the answer is pretty clear. Offenses will rely much more heavily on putting the game in motion. we will see a dramatic increase in stolen bases and the hit and run.
What FA is most likely to have the skill set that will flourish in the near future? There is only 1, and his name is Trea Turner. The Mariners need to put a great push to sign Turner. They need to offer him a package of 6-8 years with an AAV of 29 to 33 million per.
I would then look for Haniger’s replacement. For the money that folks think it would take to bring back Haniger the Mariners could sign Brandon Nimmo.
The wild card in all this is that none us know how a player will fit into culture that Jerry and Scott have created, so to that I just say… in Jerry I trust.
Any of the SS options are great. All have their positives and negatives, but any of the 4 make you a better team. You HAVE to shift JP over to 2nd. If he is the captain of this team, he does whatever it takes to make you better. The ability to add a better hitter to the lineup, and shift JP’s bat and range to 2nd is needed. He got paid already, so he should be willing to take the ego hit to move to 2nd and make the team better. With the shift rules changing, the range at 2nd will make us better as well.
Either way, you are moving Frazier, one of the few left handed batters out of the line up, for a righty. With everybody throwing Kelenic and Winker out with, a right handed dominant line up moves further that direction. It makes adding a left handed hitting outfielder more important.
I would look at Xander or Swanson, as my preferred option, which would allow for more budget room to also add Nimmo, a left handed outfielder. I would also offer a 2 year $25m offer to Haniger. A pay day for him, but not crippling for the future if his injury bad luck continues. Another key member of the locker room would be taken care of by ownership.
I also keep the rest of the guys and look to finish off the offseason with solidifying the bullpen by bringing back Edwin Diaz. This would solidify the bullpen and better slot our guys in for innings they can handle and dominate.
Fair market terms should be enough. The income tax in CA and NY already set us ahead and players should take their net earnings into account. 5-10% state income tax is pretty significant.
I bring back the rest of the guys and let them compete and see who can figure it out. Nimmo in LF, Julio in Center. Haniger in RF or at DH when Kelenic plays. Winker, Kelenic, Lewis and the rest of the kitchen sink to figure out who EARNS playing time in the corner outfield and DH when facing tough pitching (sit Haniger against top end righties, sit Nimmo against top end lefties)
Lineup
Julio
FA SS
Nimmo
France
Suarez
Raleigh
Haniger
Winker/Kelenic/Lewis Rotation
Crawford
I still have belief that Kelenic can figure it out, that Winker is more of the player he was the rest of his career rather than who he was last year (injury?) and will be motivated to perform in 2023, and have a prayer that Lewis can be a role player. Giving up on any of those guys would be selling at an extreme low. If ONE figures it out, your lineup is filthy. If none do, finding a trade for a corner outfield bat or DH is the easiest thing to find on the trade market during the season. Address it at that time.
I also keep the pitching in place as is. 6 men fighting for 5 spots. If all goes well, deal from strength. If not, you over pay for a long man in the bullpen.
If you get legitimate offers for Marco, Flexen, Winker, Kelenic, then you listen, but if you dont get good value, your team is stronger and deeper, and has a lot more potential with them there.
The Ms have a couple players who can play 2B. Sam Haggerty and AAA SS Mason McCoy should get a chance at 2B.