The Mets threw a lot of money last offseason, which got them into the postseason in 2022. But after losing their first-round matchup to the Padres, they are now about to see a huge chunk of their roster head to free agency. That means they might have to keep the wallet open if they want to take another shot in 2023.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Francisco Lindor, SS: $306.9MM through 2031. $50MM of his extension was deferred and will be paid out in $5MM installments from 2032-2041.
- Max Scherzer, SP: $86.667 through 2024. Scherzer can opt out after 2023.
- Starling Marte, OF: $62.25MM through 2025.
- Jacob deGrom, SP: $34.5MM through 2023 plus $32.5MM club option for 2024. deGrom can opt out after 2022. Some deferred money to be paid out starting in 2035.
- James McCann, C: $24MM through 2024.
- Mark Canha, OF: $12.5MM through 2023, including $2MM buyout on $11.5MM club option for 2024.
- Eduardo Escobar, IF: $10MM through 2023, including $500K buyout on $9MM club option for 2024.
- Darin Ruf, IF/OF: $3.25MM through 2023, including $250K buyout on $3.5MM club option for 2024.
- Robinson Cano, IF: $24MM through 2023. Cano was released in 2022 and is now a free agent, but the Mets are still on the hook for the last year of his deal.
Total 2023 commitments: $182.4MM, assuming deGrom opts out.
Total future commitments: $564.067MM, assuming deGrom opts out.
Option Decisions
- Chris Bassitt, SP: $19MM mutual option with $150K buyout.
- Carlos Carrasco, SP: $14MM club option with $3MM buyout.
- Taijuan Walker, SP: $7.5MM player option with $3MM buyout.
- Mychal Givens, RP: $3.5MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout.
- John Curtiss, RP: $775K club option, arbitration eligible after that.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Daniel Vogelbach (4.138): $2.9MM (Mets can bypass arbitration by exercising a $1.5MM club option)
- Tomas Nido (4.089): $1.6MM
- Dominic Smith (4.081): $4MM
- Jeff McNeil (4.069): $6.2MM
- Joey Lucchesi (4.067): $1.15MM
- Drew Smith (4.034): $1.2MM
- Pete Alonso (4.000): $15.9MM
- Luis Guillorme (3.167): $1.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Dominic Smith
Free Agents
- Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin, Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Tommy Hunter.
Fans have long called for the Mets to act like a big market team, and it finally happened this year. The second year under owner Steve Cohen, the club gave out four big free agent deals last winter, signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. All four of those players got eight-figure contracts, with Scherzer getting into nine figures on a three-year deal that set a new record for average annual value.
When combined with the contracts already on the books, the Mets ended up with an Opening Day payroll of just under $265MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was more than $100MM more than anything they’d done in the pre-Cohen era and an increase of about $70MM on Cohen’s first season in charge. In terms of the luxury tax, which is calculated based on the AAV of contracts and not the 2022 salaries, the Mets were much higher. Ronald Blum of The Associated Press reported that the Mets finished 2022 with a Competitive Balance Tax number of $298.8MM, leading to a tax bill of $29.9MM.
All of that spending translated into quality on-the-field results, for the most part. The Mets led the NL East for the majority of the season, finishing with a record of 101-61. That was the second-highest win total in franchise history, eclipsed only by the 108 wins of the 1986 squad. Unfortunately, the Braves got red hot in the second half and also managed to get to 101 wins, sneaking past the Mets to the divisional title on a tiebreaker. The Mets still nabbed the top NL Wild Card spot, qualifying for the postseason for the first time since 2016. Unfortunately, they were dispatched by the Padres in the best-of-three Wild Card series.
On the heels of that disappointing finish, the club will now be thinking about how to put together a team for 2023. It’s possible that there will be a high amount of turnover, especially on the pitching staff, leading to the roster looking very different next year. In terms of the starting rotation, the Mets had six guys who made more than 10 starts in 2022, four of whom are now likely to become free agents. Jacob deGrom has long maintained that he intends to trigger his opt-out provision once the offseason begins, even when he was injured and his status was questionable. Chris Bassitt has a mutual option, with those deals almost never triggered by both parties. Taijuan Walker has a $7.5MM player option but with a hefty $3MM buyout. He should take the latter and leave $4.5MM on the table, but then easily eclipse that in free agency. Carlos Carrasco can be retained via a club option, which is a bit risky given that he hasn’t stayed healthy enough to pitch more than 152 innings since 2018. However, given the potential for so many losses, the Mets will likely keep him around.
Assuming the Mets do indeed decide to keep Carrasco, he will slot into the rotation next to Max Scherzer, who will enter the second year of his deal, and David Peterson, who has not yet reached arbitration but could qualify this year depending on where the Super Two cutoff ends up. There are some in-house options to fill out the backend, such as Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, but the Mets will certainly look to make additions here.
Whether deGrom can be lured back to Queens will likely be a story that dominates the headlines until it’s resolved. He reportedly has a preference to be closer to his family home in Florida, though it’s unlikely that would be strong enough for him to accept significantly smaller deals than he would find elsewhere. He will still need to be paid something resembling his market value. The Mets have shown they are willing to spend big on the players they want, but deGrom will turn 35 in June and is likely looking at deals somewhat similar to the short-term, high AAV contract that Scherzer got. Even if they are willing to spend, would the Mets want around $80-90MM devoted to just two pitchers?
If the Mets decide to let deGrom go, there will be plenty of other options. Carlos Rodon will be one of the most sought-after pitchers this winter, though he is much younger, about to turn 30. That means he will likely be seeking a longer pact but with a lower AAV than deGrom, which might be more appetizing to the Mets. The tier below Rodon will feature many pitchers who are quite good, though not quite at that ace level. Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Anderson, Kodai Senga, Mike Clevinger, Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha are just some of the names in this bracket, which also includes old friend Chris Bassitt. It’s possible the Mets would prefer to spread some money around to a few guys at this level, as opposed to putting all of their eggs into an ace basket. Given the high amount of turnover that’s possible, there would be an argument for taking this approach.
Speaking of turnover, how about this bullpen? Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter are all heading into the open market this winter. Mychal Givens has a mutual option and will likely be joining them. That leaves the Mets with Drew Smith as the only guy who threw more than 25 innings in 2022 to still be around. Though there are some other arms around, they are better suited to depth options. That means the Mets will effectively be looking to rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Much of the attention will be on Edwin Diaz, given that he has established himself as one of the best relievers in the game. However, that also means he will be looking at a huge payday, possibly even becoming the first reliever to crack nine digits. With so many holes in the relief corps, perhaps the Mets will look to spread some money around to a handful of different arms instead of focusing on a lockdown closer.
If there’s one thing working in the Mets’ favor this winter, it’s that the position player core is much more stable. Outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Tyler Naquin are headed for free agency, but the whole gang will be coming back apart from that. The losses of Nimmo and Naquin will certainly hurt the club’s outfield depth, but they still have options there. Marte could slide over from right field and take over Nimmo’s center field duties. Canha can be pencilled into one corner. Jeff McNeil has split his time between the infield and outfield but could spend more time on the grass going forward. Dominic Smith is still under club control and could get the playing time he was lacking in 2022, though he could also be non-tendered after a down year. That’s a serviceable group, though the Mets could certainly look to bolster it, either by re-signing Nimmo or acquiring someone else. Nimmo won’t be cheap, however, as he’s clearly the best center field option on the market this year and many teams have a need for such a player. Given the free spending of the Cohen era, some fans might dream of the Mets plucking Aaron Judge from the Bronx and placing him in Queens. But given the multiple areas of need, it’s possible they look to cheaper options like Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger or Michael Brantley.
On the infield, there are a few locks and a few maybes. Francisco Lindor will be the shortstop and Pete Alonso will be at first base. Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme are the most obvious first for third and second base, respectively, though there are some other routes the club could take. If they do end up signing an outfielder, it would free McNeil up to stay on the dirt. There are also youngsters to consider, as Mark Vientos and Brett Baty both made their MLB debuts in 2022. Neither of them excelled in their brief MLB appearances, but each of them has crushed minor league pitching. If the Mets are willing to roll the dice on one of those two holding down the hot corner, perhaps they could try flipping Escobar to help fill in the gaps on the pitching staff.
There’s one other area where the youth factor will come into play. Behind the plate, James McCann was gradually eclipsed by Tomas Nido throughout 2022. The Mets also promoted Francisco Alvarez late in the year, who is considered by some evaluators to be the best prospect in the league at the moment. He’s still quite young, about to turn 21, and has played just 50 games above the Double-A level. He’s hit everywhere he goes but his defense is considered to be a bit behind his bat. The Mets could start him in Triple-A in 2023 while he continues to develop, but they could also be bold and pave the way for him. McCann’s contract is underwater at this point, after two consecutive poor seasons and two years left to go. But if the Mets are willing to eat some money, perhaps they can find a taker and let Alvarez spread his wings and fly.
Ultimately, how the Mets approach these different areas will depend on the budget. The high amount of roster turnover creates challenges but also frees up some spending room. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s 2023 payroll at $231MM and CBT number at $238MM, though deGrom’s opt out and a non-tender of Smith would drop those by almost $40MM. Exercising Carrasco’s option would add $11MM and put the club just over $200MM in terms of real pa. General manager Billy Eppler spoke with the media recently and said he doesn’t anticipate any kind of budget cuts this year, though he didn’t provide any kind of specific target number. If they decide to go into 2023 with a payroll similar to the $265MM Opening Day figure they had here in 2022, that could leave them with around $60MM to spend.
That’s a decent chunk of change, though the Mets have many holes that need filling. They need at least one starting pitcher, perhaps two, along with an entire bullpen. Adding another outfielder makes sense. deGrom alone is likely to pass $40MM in terms of the AAV on his deal. Nimmo, Bassitt and Diaz will likely be in the $20MM range. Shopping in that aisle will likely require the Mets to increase the payroll closer to $300MM, something that Cohen is apparently open to, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Trading Escobar and McCann to address some of the gaps would help with the financial squeeze, but those moves would also come with the risk of handing prominent roles to unproven prospects. Perhaps the club will avoid the top names on the market and spread their money around to more second-tier free agents. There are many ways that Eppler could approach his second offseason making the baseball decisions for the Mets. But there’s no doubt they will be active one way or another, making them one of the most fascinating franchises to watch yet again.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Mets-centric chat on 10-29-22. Click here to read the transcript.
Next addition Aaron Judge on the Mets. But as a Braves fan that actually scares me. Having Alonso and Judge in any lineup would be devastating for any pitchers.
Don’t worry about it. It’s a pretty unlikely scenario.
The Mets need someone to teach the Heimlich Maneuver, the choking is getting out of hand..
Buying the beat players time and time again does not always buy a championship. Most of the players on the free agent market are in their 30’s, injury prone, and while they may be good clubhouse additions, they don’t necessarily help the team chemistry if there are so many changes. I think Mets need to rethink their process. There is no reason thet should have lost the division. That is when it was basically over for them.
They were buying competing for a championship. They most certainly did that and improved by almost thirty wins. No one, no matter what they do, has high odds of winning a championship. The Dodgers were heads above everyone else and topped out at about 17% chance to win it all.
The Mets were never a lock to win that divison. Braves and Phillies both have a ton of talent as well.
Oh, I know they weren’t a lock to win it but being up 10 games in September and getting swept by the one team you needed to win one game against to break a tiebreaker is pretty bad. It was a collapse.
And yes, they improved but I think they shouldn’t spend so much that they sell their future away.
Yes at that point inbthe season the division was their’s to lose. However prior to the season and again next season, that division is very much up for grabs.
The Mets weren’t “up 10 games in September” over the Braves.
If you’re going to be critical at least be factual. They were up 10.5 on June 1st
The Mets were up 10.5 games on June 1st..
They were only up 3 games on September 1st NoT 10 games
They still should have won that division, but the Braves were rolling like a freight train. Every game The Mets won, the Braves kept winning too. 101 game winning seasons dont happen every year. It stinks the way it ended, and believe me, I am as upset as any Mets Fan. But that doesnt diminish the season they had. If they can retain the core of guys that are Free Agents and sign or trade for a legitimate bat behind Pete whether or not that is Judge, then they are gonna be tough again! A couple of Pen arms would also be huge, but if they do in fact figure out how to lure Judge away from everybody else, He changes the whole lineup! I would trade either Canha or Escobar for pitching. Canha is not a bad guy to have, but he wasn’t consistent enough and Escobar was on fire September, but imagine where that team would have been if he was even a fraction of that from April through August! The 3 young guys are gonna be fun to watch. Their 22 campaign was not what you are gonna see from them going forward!
I would package McCann in with whomever of the 2 you trade and hopefully get some kind of pitching!
I aint ready to give up on deGrom yet. Sign him! Then also try to sign Rodon! Maybe hang onto Walker, but let Carasco go or vice versa. Sign Ottovino, Nimmo, and Diaz (Not necessarily in that order).
Also need to start thinking of retaining Alonso and McNeil long term!
Btw, I don’t expect Judge to hit as many longballs at Citifield, but he also hits consistantly otherwise and that will only get better without the shift, although I dont actually know how well or bad he hit in the shift, I’m only guessing he would be better without it!
but being up 10 games in September
==============================
You don’t have to research everything, but in this case, “10 games” should’ve sounded wrong.
It might have been August, I don’t know the exact amount the Mets were up by. Point is they had a sizable lead late and needed one win against the Braves and couldn’t do it. It was like they lost in the playoffs before they got there. No momentum at all.
It might not have diminished their season but it diminished any playoff hopes they had. I was rooting for them too.
They were ten games up in July.
It was still July.
It was not July. June first was there high point 10.5 games up from that time on the mets went 63-43 and the braves went 75-32 The Braves went 43 games over 500 they had the best record in baseball. Great accomplishment but they still lost to a team that only won 87 games.
pwndroia9 hours ago
It might have been August,
===============================
It was June 1st, meaning that they had 4 months to catch up. The NYM record for those 4 months was 66-44,. That’s .600 ball.. Atlanta’s record from June 1st on was 78-34. That’s .696.
Or even better, they ran off 14 straight at the start of June. That cut the lead to 4 games.
I only mention this because I’ve heard the same stuff for 15+ years with the RS. We’d go 12-8, including a west coast trip, which is pretty good. The NYY would face the easier part of their schedule, go 15-5, and the haters would say we were choking.
Sometimes the other team just wins.
DaOldDerbyBastard4 hours ago
It was still July
=============================
No, it wasn’t still July, and it wasn’t even close.. Their biggest lead in July was 3.5 games, not 10.
This whole thing is situational. Here’s what happened. The NYM went on their 10-game west coast trip to LAD, SD, and LAA. They went 5-5, which is quite reasonable. During the same time, the Braves played the easiest part of their schedule, and won 10-0.
Half the 10.5 game advantage disappeared in 10 days.
And, imho, it was the NYM FO that choked by not trading for Iglesias. They’d have won the division, and not have to worry about out-bidding the NYY, RS, LAD, etc., for Diaz’ services. The bidding starts at $95M/5.
Kaiser, looks like I stepped on your toes. I answer in order, so not to be influenced by other posts, but apparently posted pretty much what you posted. Sometimes you just have to credit the other team. The NYY in 78 (.684 in the 2nd half), and the 69 NYMs (.671).
It’s cool people post without facts. The mets had a great year the Braves had a great year but they still lost to a 87 win soft ball team with a bunch of DH’s who would’nt have made the playoff’s without this years rule changes. Expanded playoffs universal DH hell without the DH Harper would have been lost for the season.. I hope the Phillies do win.
I figure the fact thing can be only 1 of 2 things. Either one is 100% certain of something that is false, which happens to everyone. Or they aren’t sure, but lack the energy to spend 10 seconds to look it up.
Past that, it’s almost impossible to play closer than Atl & the NYM. They not only tied, the season series was split 10-9. Atl wins a game with a GB single, and a GB double with a 3-2 pitch, with 2 outs, and the runner going. That’s how close it was.
when were they up by 10 in september?
Up by 10.5 on June 1st.
Up by 3.5 on August 1st.
A smart team full of FAs, with a departing rotation and bullpen, would have done what was necessary to secure the division as much as possible.
Who did the Mets add? The likes of Darin Ruf and Mychal Givens, players who overall summed to 0 WAR, and they sent JDD to SF, where he immediately turned around and hit for a 140 OPS+.
They’re the same old Mets. Call it Alderson’s Disease, now Eppler’s Disease.
@JoeBrady And sometimes the other team’s FO isn’t smart enough to realize, up just 3.5 games at the deadline, that they might need to go .609, overall, in that span.
The Mets will the story of the offseason. So much money on the books already. So many FA questions. Cohen’s deep pockets. It’s going to be nutty.
VPH, you come down off that cloud yet? Helluva job last night by the Fightins’, who earned that name last night. Austin wasn’t dominant, but held the rope long enough to give them time to get back in it.
And, the way the Braves have their young talent locked up long term, and the Phillies also set for the near future, it’ll be interesting to see how the Mets play this. My guess is throwing money around to try and get theirs.
Aaron, not Austin. Old man brain, coached them both. Austin was actually the better athlete of the two.
Still riding high! Hope this incredible run gets a happy ending, but the Stros are so deep.
They better plan on spending. If deGrom leaves and signs with any NL team let alone a NL East team, it ll make the off season very interesting to say the least. Would b kinda interesting to see Scherzer and Verlander to team up again as well.
Wouldn’t they just need to add to the contract Jake has already then we are not talking big bucks. Maybe I am not figuring right.
If he opts out its an entire new contract. Obviously he ll b looking for higher AAV than he’s already guaranteed the next 2 seasons were he to exercise his options.
As a phils fan it’s in my blood to hate the Mets but I’m intrigued by what they will do this offseason. It will be a fun hot stove for sure.
Mets comments are always fun to read.
Trade Escobar and McCann for similar priced pitchers. (Obviously, the pitcher they get back for McCann will also have a contract that is underwater). Sign a cheap option to allow Alvarez to develop defensively as needed, but 3b gets filled by some combination of what’s already on hand.
That should fill a couple of holes without using any of the payroll space.
Baty will play third next year. Niddo will back up Alvarez. Escobar will be used as a utility back up player that can cover three positions and occasionally DH. Pitching and Nimmo signing/replacement is their priorities.
Agree on all with the exception of Nimmo. I believe he’s hit his ceiling and isn’t enough for what’s needed. I sense pitching is going to get an overhaul with only deGrom and Diaz being the primary ‘bring back’ targets.
@Mets6986?? Baty? He’s a DH who might get by in LF. He’s no more a 3Bman than JDD. Baty made 38 errors at third in slightly more than a full season, and he hasn’t gotten better there.
Know your own team. I recommend at least studying their minor league records at Baseball-reference.
I think the Mets bring back Degrom, bassitt, Diaz and Nimmo. They will make bullpen changes as does every team in baseball. Where they go for another starter will be interesting. I expect Alvarez, Baty and Vientos on opening day lineup.
Nimmo to the Giants.
Money doesn’t exactly match up, but maybe swap McCann for Madison Bumgarner + a prospect?
They can get more for McCann than Bumgarner + prospect. Bumgarner (unfortunately) has no value—especially carrying that contract.
McCann is literally worthless.
Nevertheless, he is worth more than MadBum, and unless that prospect is in the Top 30 of D-Backs prospects, why would the Mets want to take on Bumgarner’s awful contract? For a #5 or #6 starter? Doubtful.
Sign Correa for 3B. Escobar becomes DH and sometimes a utility player. Baty needs time at AAA and lacks athleticism at 3B. Becomes lefty DH and 1B/3B utility player in 2024.
Zero percent chance that Mets sign Correa to play third. The have top third base prospect in Baty and will use Escobar if needed.
Correa is a much better all around player than Baty will be and apparently you did not grow up watching Schmidt and Rolen at 3B. Baty’s bat will play well as DH in 2023/24 and he can fill in as a LHB to rest Pete at 1B and Correa at 3B.
Since when does 3B require athleticism? He’ll be back and most likely starting at third unless he has a horrendous spring. The kid can hit.
He can definitely hit… so can Álvarez and yes, even vientos, but more of just a power bat… I see him turning out like a joc Pederson type from the right side
I’m surprised on the Mets site how many of our fans are blasting these three saying they’re not ready even though they all had less than 50ab each… and their hard contact rates were actually solid, which is usually the best future indicator
I was fortunate to see Schmidt play. when he went into the Hof he was only the 2nd third baseman to get into the Hof. the first was honus Wagner.
Lol no
Mets need to talk about extending Alonso this offseason.
What about McNeil?
On the potential non tender candidates, you might want to differentiate which Smith you are referring to. I assume it meant Dominic Smith, but Drew Smith is also on the list.
That McCann deal was beyond stupid and 2 years more than anyone would have offered at the time. He needs to be released or traded.
They’re not going to release him. Not after releasing d’Arnaud lol. Seriously, who would want him? Best they can do is give him another crack in 23. They can move in midseason if Alvarez lives up to expectations
What about McNeil?
Steve slingblade Karl Childers Cohen I’s gonna open up that checkbook for players and biscuits and still see his team fall well short of his goals next winter ! Bills run New York
Vientos, Baty, and Alvarez – if healthy – will be starting in April. All FA dollars will be spent on pitching. deGrom will not be returning to the Mets. Diaz will be back. Mets are not getting Judge – thats tabloid fodder clickbait
Agree they should be… Mets used to have the strong home grown SP core (degrom Wheeler syndergaard even matz) and a mediocre hitting core. Letting wheeler go was a massive mistake and many of us knew it at the time, you could see his stuff kept improving and he was really learning to pitch w it. Anyway, after that core moved on except deGrom, they didn’t really have anyone in the minors to come up and replace them. But the hitting core improved (Alonso Nimmo McNeil, even conforto until they let him go), and a strong wave is coming soon like you said. They’ll need to work the market for SP bc their farm options aren’t there, but start playing these young bats – they’re ready for this step.
You know the first thing New York should do is Vientos and Baty to Milwaukee for Sterns.
Umm no
Ok how about Vientos and a low a pitching prospect then
More inclined to do that… wouldn’t give up baty, he looks legitimate
Bassitt isnt an old friend yet mr. Darragh. One of the more interesting clubs to keep an eye on this offseason.
They will have to blow thru $300M if they want to retain DeGrom and Diaz.
9 bats at an average of $15M per, 5 SP’s and a closer at an average of `$15M per is $225M for any team. Add in a bench and a bullpen ….$300M. Even if you build from within, as soon as they are good teams buy out those arbitration and early free agent years. So whether you are the Braves heavily from within, the Dodgers a mix of within and signings or the Mets, lots of signings with the hope of having the Dodgers model, $300M is not hard to get to in todays game.
I think they will, if not, by the ’23 trade deadline.
I see degrom leaving, and either way, I’d like to see them pursue rodon
They could also try for a trade for one of Milwaukee’s SPs, but I’m thinking that likelihood is low
I wonder if they’ll pursue trea turner, even though he’d have to change positions
Sure hope Walker “slips through the cracks”. Seems like a nice fit for O’s. Outside of a TJ injury stint, a relative calm injury history for a SP. Offer three years 10 mil per with an opt out in year 3? Huge upgrade from Lyles. A number 3 SP initially pressed in to a number 1 role until Rodriguez and Hall get acclimated.
Walker’s actually a good bet to outperform his next contract in my opinion, as opposed to all these other over-hyped players. Would have loved to see him get a playoff start.
Walker’s a nice 100-110 inning starter who the Mets unaccountably kept pitching long after he was any good. On a smart team he might be terrific.
Sign Trea Turner and put him in CF
If he’s willing to play CF again, I like that idea.
i like the idea but why would he do that if the phils want him to play SS?
I like to see the Mets sign Trea Turner as their center fielder. Put him atop that order with Marte Lindor Pete Squirrel. Then the focus is pitching. Diaz and other bullpen arms a must. I love Jake, but if that kind of money isn’t to his liking after missing over a year…we need to let him go. You trade Escobar and Vientos to the Brewers for Burnes. Resign Bassit and Walker and pick up one more decent pitcher. Yes this is all fantasy, but what the heck.
This would all be great but no chance Escobar and vientos brings back burnes… throw in Alvarez and peterson and maybe they start listening
Not too sure they’d take Baty, Alvarez, Vientos and Peterson for Burnes but that’s closer to an offer that Milwaukee would take seriously….imo.
I wouldn’t do Alvarez and baty… no way you send two top 20 MLB prospects plus a system top 10 and an MLB pitcher with upside who’s already performed decently for burnes… it’s too much… two top 100 MLB prospects yes, but not both in top 20
Milwaukee would take Alvarez baty vientos Peterson in a heartbeat
Turner wasn’t actually even average in CF, and that was 6 years ago. I wouldn’t.
Go all out on pitching, then get some power for the lineup with what’s left.
What club(s) will top what deGrom is already making knowing his inability to stay healthy?
In no particular order, the LAD, Atl, NYY, RS.. A $32.5 1+1 is really easy to top.
Yup. Add SD in there too
@JoeBrady Sadly for deeGee, none of those teams either need to make huge rolls of the dice at such extravagant prices, or are inclined to do so.
LAD needs as much certainty in the postseason as they can get, far more than they need to see if they can get to 120 wins in the regular season w/ a healthy Jake.
The Braves never take on this kind of money, esp for uncertainty, and the Yankees are already on the cusp without Judge of projecting to 4th in their own division. Even bringing Judge back, with a payroll the Steinbrenners have refused to push past about where they currently are, they also need certainty–and a 1Bman, starting pitching, and plenty of parts.
DeGrom might get a big deal if it’s laden with incentives, but his weak pitching at the end of the season hurt his prospects quite a bit. As for the Red Sox, an extremely expensive, uncertain starter fits nothing on the wish list of that 78 win team. The Rangers, on the other hand, might be silly enough to do something like 4/160m, and deGrom can get the money he wants without ever sniffing the postseason.
What he really needs is a team stalled at 85, 86 wins that needs to roll the dice. That would be the Rays if they ever, ever spent this kind of money. Even Chicago or Milwaukee make more sense than the Red Sox, not that either will go for this. I can almost see Philly making the 4/160m offer if they lose the Series. I mean, if you were willing to sign Castellanos for 5/100m (I mean, wth, Dombo??), why not deGrom?
As a NYM fan, I’d love to see him pitch for TBR or MIL if he doesn’t re-sign.
Atl, probably no. As a RS fan, I’d make the $140M offer and get ready to puke at some point. The Cubs are not close enough, and Mil already has two #1’s. LAD can do about whatever they want.
The team that should sign him is the Yankees. They’ve need a co-ace. The successful playoff teams seem to have two big SPs that can pitcher 4 games in a 7-game series.
@extreme113 Thing is, deGrom only had one guaranteed year left. It’s a Mets option for 2024, so presumably he’s aiming, if not for a higher AAV, at least to get that 2nd year guaranteed. He knows his health is iffy, so it’s all about the guaranteed money at this point.
McCann for Kyle Hendricks. Thoughts?
Nah, I think Hendricks has a tiny speck of value left. (More like a crumb.)
And Hendricks is actually cheaper over 2023-24, not to mention he’s got that weird option at $16m that only kicks in if he finishes in the top 3 of the Cy voting. That would seem to be overwhelmingly to the team’s benefit. ‘Finish 1-2-3 and we get you another year, cheap!’
Not that voting is precise, but it would have to be tempting to a pitcher to bail on that vest if he could give up 8 ER in 2/3 of an inning on the last day of the season in a meaningless game, just to edge himself off the Cy podium and go get that 4/$90m deal in free agency.
Cross-posting:
Iirc the Mets need most of a rotation in FA, an entire bullpen, and a starting CFer, not to mention a solid 4th and 5th OFer on top of the roughly $138 million they have committed to just 8 players:
Scherzer 43m
Lindor, 34
Marte, 20m
Canha, 13m
McCann, 10m
Carrasco, 11m (effectively, 14m list)
Givens, 2.5m, pro rated
Figure $137m. They might bring Vogelbach at the team option of $1.5m (but not Darin Ruf, surely). Call it $138 plus arb raises for
Alonso, 15m
McNeil, 12m
Lucchesi 1.15m
Nido, 3m
Guillorme, 3m
Drew Smith, 2.5m
and renewals for these and a few others, presumably.
Peterson, 1.5m
Megill, 1.5m
That’s roughly $177 million for 16 players.
The 2023 Mets will still need an ace. Scherzer’s just not it. A brilliant pitcher projectable to 125 innings who has had severe problems late season and in the postseason for 2 consecutive years is not the ace of a contender, someone who can lead it through the postseason. In fact, given his increased injuries and need for rest the team would do well to use Scherzer in the #3 slot or put him on diet of 5 days of rest or even make him what used to be called “a Sunday pitcher,” for obvious reasons, particularly if it wants him remotely effective in October.
So figure two extremely good starters are necessary, one of 1A quality, then hope to flesh out the back of the rotation, the 4 and 5 slots with some combination of Carrasco, Peterson, Megill, Lucchesi, and the like. Perhaps adding in someone like Tyler Anderson, v. pre-2022, for luck. That’s adding something like $50m, overall. As The Great Zaidi said, you’re not looking to fill 5 rotation slots—you’re looking to put together 162 starts.
For the bullpen, figure Diaz at a $20m AAV and at least another $20m to fill the remaining slots.
Nimmo is likely to pull down at least 5/$110m, but my sense is he can’t wait to get the he!! away from any time still employing Sandy Alderson no matter how marginal the association. Bringing Nimmo back, if you can, gets you to $289m.
There’s still $24m going to Cano, another $15m for lux tax purposes acc to the CBA, iirc, 4th and 5th OFers and perhaps a real middle of the order hitter.
Such is the price of Cohen’s ego, and an Alderson-Eppler front office
The Great Zaidi said, you’re not looking to fill 5 rotation slots—you’re looking to put together 162 starts.
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That’s a good way of putting it. If you can put together, say a #5 offense, and 5 #3 SPs with a league-average ERA, you’re good for about 89 wins. IMO, that’s where you start.
@JoeBrady Well said, Joe. One reason the Mets were able to win 101 games in 2022 is they stopped throwing away games by giving a couple hundred innings to pitchers with ERAs over 5.00. (Iirc they only gave about 40 innings to pitchers with both ERAs and FIPs over 5.) If a guy couldn’t get it done, unlike 2021 and previous years, they moved him out and went on to the next pitcher. That and being able to give around 40 starts to pitchers with FIPs around 3.80 (granted it cuts Megill some slack) kept them in most games, and compares well to the NL ERA of 4.05.
That’s something the Dodgers and Astros refuse to do—in one recent season, I think they gave a combined 4 starts of 324 to pitchers with below league average ERAs. 5 #3 SPs and a decent offense is a great baseline. Add a top starting pitcher and an MVP candidate and you’re already closing on 100 wins.
Geesh
Mets offseason outlook? $350 million payroll for another Wild Card run.
@MarlinsFanBase Assuming the Phillies aren’t going anywhere and play like they did with their new mgr,, you’re not wrong. Add Cano’s $24m, Ruf’s 3m, and the 15m towards the CBT and $350m is definitely in range.
$188m for existing contracts including Carrasco, and arb awards. 17 players, total.
Now add…
#1A SP – $25m
#2 SP – $18m
Nimmo = $22m
Diaz – $20m
Ottavino – $8m
LHRP – $3m
4th OFer – $8m
5th OFer – $3m
… and we’re up to $295m, plus the abovementioned $42m, and that assumes you’re starting the year with two of Peterson, Megill, and Lucchesi in the bullpen. Figure Scherzer is limited to 125 innings and Carrasco to something similar, and that’s a lot of starts from guys who haven’t shown much.