In conjunction with this post, Tim Dierkes held a Cubs-centric live chat on 10-18-22. Read the transcript here.
The time has come for the Cubs to add significant talent, but are they willing to make long-term commitments?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Marcus Stroman, SP: $46MM through 2024. Can opt out of remaining one year and $21MM after 2023 season
- Jason Heyward, RF: $22MM through 2023
- Kyle Hendricks, SP: $15.5MM through 2023. Includes $16MM club option for 2024
- Seiya Suzuki, RF: $73MM through 2026
- Yan Gomes, C: $7MM through 2023. Includes $6MM club option for 2024
- David Bote, 3B: $10.5MM through 2024. Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for 2026
Total 2023 commitments: $92.5MM
Total future commitments: $181.5MM
Option Decisions
- Drew Smyly, SP: $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Ian Happ (5.036): $10.6MM
- Franmil Reyes (4.115): $6MM
- Nico Hoerner (3.014): $2.2MM
- Steven Brault (4.167): $1.7MM
- Rafael Ortega (2.145): $1.7MM
- Rowan Wick (3.114): $1.5MM
- Nick Madrigal (2.164): $1.1MM
- Alec Mills (3.097): $800K
- Brad Wieck (3.085): $800K
- Codi Heuer (3.000): $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Reyes, Brault, Mills, Wieck
Free Agents
The 2022 Cubs played to their low preseason expectations. FanGraphs pegged them for 75 wins, and they won 74. It was an assortment of players that seemed unlikely to contend, but could maybe hang on the fringes of playoff contention.
As it turned out, the Cubs posted an abysmal 35-57 first half and were out of contention very quickly, but salvaged their record and created optimism in some quarters with a 39-31 second half. How much of that success is sustainable, and who will president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer pursue this winter to turn this team into a contender?
The rotation posted a 2.89 ERA in the second half, which ranked third in baseball. This fact was touted by owner Tom Ricketts in his annual letter to fans, so it’s worth a deeper look. One stat that jumps out is the rotation’s MLB-best 80.1% left-on-base percentage in the second half. Coupled with a below-average strikeout rate, there’s little indication the Cubs’ starting pitchers are actually skilled at stranding baserunners.
Eight Cubs pitchers made four or more starts in the second half. Two of them, Drew Smyly and Wade Miley, are headed toward free agency. The remaining six: Marcus Stroman, Adrian Sampson, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Keegan Thompson.
Stroman dealt with COVID-19 and shoulder inflammation early this year, but was excellent in 16 starts to close out his season. While the veteran serves as the Cubs’ nominal ace heading into his age-32 campaign, he’s also likely to opt out of the remaining $21MM on his contract with a solid 2023. Stroman is a good player to have for ’23, but he’ll essentially be in a contract year and thus isn’t a long-term piece.
As for Smyly, the Cubs are expected to talk to his agent this month about a new contract, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. If the Cubs were to sign Smyly to a two-year deal, it’d cover his age 34-35 seasons. Smyly’s 22 starts this year went about as well as could be expected, and the temptation to lock in a veteran for next year is understandable. Smyly did miss all of June with an oblique strain, and battled shoulder fatigue in the season’s final two weeks. This year’s 106 1/3 innings is about all a team can expect from him. Even cherry-picking to leave out April and September, Smyly still averaged fewer than five innings per start. He had a below-average strikeout rate, too, instead succeeding based on a low walk rate and weak contact. There may be some recency bias at play here in the expectation that Smyly’s modest 2022 success will continue.
The Cubs did turn up a pair of interesting, under-30 potential long-term rotation pieces in the second half: Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski. Steele, a 27-year-old southpaw, closed out his season with a run of 14 starts featured a sparkling 2.05 ERA and solid 16 K-BB%. For a two-month span, Steele looked, at least, like one of the 20 best pitchers in the game. He missed all of September due to a back injury, so the next step in his development will be to increase his innings beyond this year’s 119.
Wesneski, 25 in December, came via a shrewd one-for-one trade with the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross. Wesneski posted an excellent 2.18 ERA in 33 innings with the peripherals to match, but it was only 33 innings and his 5.3% walk rate in the Majors is likely unsustainable.
At present the Cubs can really only write Stroman and Steele into their 2023 rotation. World Series hero Kyle Hendricks has at least one year left on his contract, but his season ended in July due to a capsular tear in his right shoulder. The Cubs can hope for a return to form, but can’t count on Hendricks. Of the other rotation candidates, Sampson and Assad had the best results, combining for a 3.19 ERA in 27 starts. Neither had the peripheral stats to back up an ERA below 4.50. The bottom line is that a competitive 2023 team will need to add at least two starting pitchers this winter. Even if one of them is Smyly, who else might the Cubs consider?
Asked about adding a top of the rotation starter – which the Cubs obviously need – Hoyer replied, “I think it’s important that we continue to add quality innings. We’re actively looking for quality innings, pitchers we feel like we can work with and potentially make better.” To me, this is mostly classic GM-speak that doesn’t reveal much about offseason plans, though Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports feels Hoyer’s comment suggests sights set somewhere below one of the best pitchers on the free agent market, Carlos Rodon.
I believe the Cubs are committed to avoiding risky contracts, and wouldn’t take the plunge on a starter like Rodon unless, like Stroman, he could somehow be landed on a three-year deal. While I agree with the speculation that Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are unlikely to join the 2023 Cubs, I think the market is rife with opportunities for good pitchers who can be had with commitments of three or fewer years. And keep in mind, the three-year limitation is only my speculation.
It’s easy to see the Cubs focusing some interest on older but recently-effective starters who shouldn’t require excessive years: Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jameson Taillon are a few who come to mind. It’s also easy to see Hoyer turning back to Japan for Kodai Senga, who turns 30 in January and just posted a 1.89 ERA in 148 innings for the Softbank Hawks. A four-year deal for Senga at an AAV below that of the typical MLB-experienced free agent ace could be possible. Zach Eflin could be another name to watch, as the soon-to-be free agent righty doesn’t turn 29 until April. The Cubs could pursue Shane Bieber or Pablo Lopez via trade, and that market always includes a few surprises every winter. If Shohei Ohtani is made available, the Cubs would have to at least gauge the asking price and consider converting some of their prospect capital into the superstar they’re lacking.
Turning to the bullpen, the Cubs were relying on Brandon Hughes, Manny Rodriguez, Mark Leiter Jr., Adbert Alzolay, and Keegan Thompson in high leverage situations in the season’s final month. That was necessitated by the club’s veteran bullpen purge, which saw David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Effross sent packing in trades. It seems likely Hoyer will continue deploying his strategy of one-year deals for veteran free agent relievers, with the specific names impossible to predict.
On the position player side, the Cubs seem content with Happ and Suzuki at the corners again next year. While neither fit the profile as a middle of the order masher, both outfielders posted offensive numbers at least 16% better than league average. At 3.5 WAR, Happ put together the best season of his career in 2022, and the Cubs will at least explore an extension. My guess is that Happ won’t be retained long-term, with prospects Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario near MLB-ready.
The Cubs gave most of their center field reps to Christopher Morel and Rafael Ortega in 2022. While Morel had a solid rookie season overall, there’s a good chance the Cubs will look outside the organization for short-term help in center. A one-year deal for Cody Bellinger (who’s likely to be non-tendered by the Dodgers) could be interesting, or the Cubs could take a more defense-minded approach with Kevin Kiermaier. Long-term, the Cubs will likely keep center field open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who finished 2022 at High-A.
The Cubs surprisingly held on to catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline this year, presumably because they felt the offers were worse than the draft pick they would receive if he turns down a qualifying offer. That pick would be between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next summer’s draft. Contreras, 31 in May, will likely seek a four or five-year deal in free agency, and the Cubs have not seemed interested in hammering something out to retain their longtime backstop.
A Contreras departure would leave the Cubs reliant on Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins behind the plate. Prospect Miguel Amaya is recovering from injuries and has yet to play above Double-A, but could be a factor for the Cubs in the second half. The free agent market features a typical array of veteran catchers, and there’s a decent chance the Cubs will sign one to bolster their depth.
Alfonso Rivas, 26, led the Cubs in defensive innings at first base. He managed just an 82 wRC+ in 287 plate appearances. The Cubs released Frank Schwindel in September, and simply don’t have much at the position. Much of their DH time went to Franmil Reyes, Contreras, and Schwindel. Reyes posted a 94 wRC+ in 193 plate appearances for the Cubs after being claimed off waivers from the Guardians, and the team may choose not to tender him a contract and instead keep their options open.
This leaves the Cubs hurting for offense at two traditionally easier-to-fill positions in first base and DH. The ship may have sailed on Anthony Rizzo even if he does opt out of his Yankees contract, but free agency offers names like Jose Abreu, Brandon Belt, J.D. Martinez, Matt Carpenter, and Michael Brantley. The Cubs may also find some at-bats for Matt Mervis, who would be a 25-year-old rookie next year and had a huge 2022 with the bat as he ascended from High-A to Triple-A.
The Cubs could also look to upgrade at third base, after a 1.1 WAR season from Patrick Wisdom. Wisdom, who has also played some first base and left field, could still stick around as a lefty-masher. If Nolan Arenado doesn’t reach free agency, the third base market looks thin. Names like Brandon Drury or Evan Longoria could be in play.
Nico Hoerner’s breakout 4-WAR 2022 campaign affords the Cubs some intriguing possibilities. The first could be an extension for Hoerner, perhaps with J.P. Crawford’s four-year, $46.15MM extension serving as a guidepost. Though Hoerner logged almost all of his innings at shortstop this year and got above-average defensive marks, the Cubs have signaled a willingness to move him to second base next year. That could make playing time hard to come by for Nick Madrigal, but the 25-year-old contact specialist put up just a 70 wRC+ in 228 plate appearances this year.
Speculation has been heavy on the possibility of the Cubs signing one of the four big free agent shortstops: Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, or Carlos Correa. Owner Tom Ricketts did nothing to dispel that notion, saying in his letter to fans, “We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.” Hoyer told reporters, “I have total confidence — if we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players — that we’ll have his blessing. And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”
Hoyer has also been known to talk about “intelligent” spending. He elaborated recently, “To me, intelligent spending involves making decisions that make sense for the 2023 season but also aren’t going to hinder what we’re trying to build. The nature of baseball contracts is challenging that way. We’ve all seen contracts of certain lengths that can really bog a team down. It’s easy to talk about the player you’re acquiring, but if that contract ends up hindering the ultimate goal here, which is to build something special and sustainable and lasting, then it wasn’t a good transaction.”
Regret set in pretty quickly for the Cubs’ last two $100MM deals. With Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal, he simply never hit as the Cubs expected, and Hoyer told reporters in August that the club will release him and eat the $22MM remaining on his contract for 2023. Darvish was traded for prospects halfway through his six-year deal. Heyward’s contract, in particular, contributed to the Ricketts family keeping the checkbook closed after the 2018 and ’19 seasons.
We at MLBTR are still deliberating our free agent contract projections, but all of the big four shortstops figure to hit the market seeking seven or eight-year deals. Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson, and Correa were born within a two-year span of each other. Bogaerts, the oldest, recently turned 30. Correa, the youngest, just celebrated his 28th birthday. That gap may not seem like much, but the Cubs are clearly worried about entering another long-term deal they’ll quickly regret. That’s why I could see some favor for Correa, who could sign a seven-year deal that would still only take him through age 34.
Considering likely non-tenders, the Cubs appear to have about $107MM tied up for a dozen players in 2023, including Heyward’s money. Assuming Stroman opts out after ’23, the Cubs have a mere two players under contract for 2024 with Suzuki making $20MM and Bote at $5.5MM. The initial competitive balance tax thresholds are set at $233MM in 2023 and $237MM in 2024. The Cubs, in one of the country’s largest markets, are currently $217MM below the first CBT threshold for 2024 if Stroman opts out.
There are no players the Cubs can’t afford, up to and including Aaron Judge. But with Judge turning 31 in April and looking to be paid through age-38 and beyond – and with the Cubs’ outfield in decent long-term shape – he seems an unlikely target.
The Cubs are not remotely close to the CBT. While teams have stopped paying top free agents through age 41, as the Angels did with Albert Pujols a decade ago, paying stars through age 37 is still often the only way to get them. And even deals for the youngest of free agents can go bust; it’s hard to find a free agent younger than the 26 Heyward was when the Cubs signed him.
The Cubs outspent expectations last winter with over $200MM in commitments, yet still avoided the leap of faith required to sign the top players on the market. With the payroll looking increasingly clear and two rebuilding seasons in the rearview, we’ll find out soon how far the Cubs are willing to go.
Cubs fans gotta be excited that Heyward contract is almost done.
He gets released now since its the end of the season.
Still have to pay him his 23 mil. The OP was referring to not having to pay him anymore.
I’m holding my breath until Heywards release becomes official.
I would love for the Cubs to sign Bellinger if he is in fact non-tendered by the Dodgers but I think the new shift rules will be enticing enough for la to keep him around another season.
I think the Cubs target Mike Clevinger and reunite him with Gome and Hawkins. Cubs will also look at some one year relievers to tide things over for Huers return to the mound. Huer and Alzolay will thicken the back end of the bullpen quite a bit.
The amount of talent the Cubs will need to protect in the minors from the rule five draft leads me to believe they may look to make some trades. Probably nothing overly significant but trades like they made for Montero and Fowler in 2015 (of course Fowler ended up being a significant trade).
Short term deals for Bellinger (if available) and Abreu make sense as place holders for Cub prospects. Especially if the Cubs do go crazy and sign one of the top short stops on the market.
Imo, Davis is further off than most people think. Canario is a bit closer, could make a push with an impressive spring training. I think he has an inside track over Mervis since he’s already on the 40 man.
Good intake
I agree with you
If Cubs can get
Bellinger
Abreu
Rodon type SP
And huge SS addition with a Turner or Correa signing it would be a great Cubs offseason
@drasco. IMO there is no way that Canario has any ‘inside track’ on Mervis in any situation – short of an injury to Suzuki or maybe Happ. Mervis is a 1B, and the Cubs have a big hole at 1B. Cubs need LH hitting and Mervis is a LH hitter. The Cubs need LH power, and ….Mervis hit 36 HRs in 2022. Mervis has done all that, while also hitting .300 with an OPS at all 3 levels, of around 1000. Being on or off the 40 man roster come spring, means nothing.
It means a whole heck of a lot when the Cubs need to protect so many players from the rule five draft.
The Cubs have rumored interest in Abreu, what does that tell you right off the bat? And while Mervis has posted some impressive numbers, the Cubs will want him to work on his defense, his ability to hit left handed pitching and have a little longer track record of success. The Cubs most likely will not move Mervis to the 40 man until some injuries take place and they can utilize the 60 day il.
Canario has the inside track because he is on the 40 man, can DH and the Cubs can possibly move Happ in the off-season. Not to mention Canario is a solid defender with the majority of his games coming in cf last season (where is another gapping hole for the Cubs at the moment?). Being that Davis missed nearly the entire year this year, I imagine the Cubs handle him with more cautious approach.
Again, listening is a skill: come spring, it’s all about production. The 40 man roster implications don’t matter, they have already passed. Your not kicking the can down the road. Your playing to win.
I wouldn’t just blindly give Mervis the 1b/DH job. Yes the cubs do need LH power and he is expected to help deliver that. They need to break him in slowly and allow him to be successful in the spots they give him. I was saying 2 months ago that Jose Abreu would be the perfect guy to offer a 2 year contract so Mervis could be inserted into situations to succeed. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Mervis isn’t added to the 40-man roster till at least 3-4 weeks into the season.
After the dregs I saw them toss out there this year I would ABSOLUTELY give Mervis the 1B job. And I’d buy him a car to make he would.
Hahaha yeah I see your point on that. But development of Mervis is still something we need to be concerned about. We’ve rushed too many players to the big leagues back when the team was contending (Schwarber, Happ, and even Nico; could even add Baez to that list). Schwarber and Baez at least helped us win it so there’s that, but we’re not in a position where we have to rush anybody now. I think Happ and even Nico could’ve benefited from more development time and as a result they would be even better players today and the cubs would probably still have an extra year of control over both of them.
As for Baez, I think he’d just be Baez no matter where he was. He’s just wired to swing and swing hard, and unfortunately he never saw a pitch he didn’t like.
Well yeah too soon is not good but, Baez wouldn’t have gotten any better than he ever was and same with Schwarber. They were what they were and will always be. What would of made Happ any better? And as far as Nico goes he’s doing just fine so not sure what scares you. Mervis is already going to be 25 so playing below his competition level isn’t going to help. If he struggles he struggles but let’s find out.
Schwarber is indeed who he is…home run champion this year, major contributor to a playoff team last year. But let me guess, his peripherals aren’t to your liking? Lol
Classic Cubs fans. Complaining a couple guys were rushed to the bigs…ya know, two guys who helped win our only ws since 1908? Ha. Yes, you admit they helped win, but only as an afterthought… I love discussion boards. Forget the winter meetings, this is where the true expertise lies!
Schwarber has been one of my favorites. I wished the Cubs would’ve stuck with him longer. So no my gratefulness of winning the world series was no afterthought. They did what they did at the time to win, but we are not in that position now. I am rooting for the Phillies because of him. He barely played in the minors. There are things he could’ve gotten better at had he had more development time. It’s just an example. It’s not my hard rule on every player in vacuum and regardless of the reality of the situation. He’s no perfect player but I actually do like him. There are very few of the ilk of Betts and Trouts in this game. I’m realistic in my viewpoints. I’m not bashing to bash because this is the internet. As for Hoerner, he’s one of my favorites in their current bunch. However, he’s burned 3 years of control because of the shortened ‘20 season (which he is a guy we needed to have playing games so that was kinda necessary) and then also being injured for most of ‘21. It’s a very Cub situation to have a guy like him who’s a damn good hitter and fairly slick fielder, especially what he proved at SS this season, and look, we only have 3 years left of him now. I hope they can get him extended on a fair contract for both parties, but it doesn’t seem so necessary to have him and all the other prospects here to play for a losing team in somewhat of a rebuild. But go ahead and bash others ideas just because it’s the internet. Develop players and time these things right and the organization becomes much stronger. Get to keep doing things the right right way over time and all of a sudden you have an organization that sustains itself through many competitive winning seasons kinda like the Cardinals have…
The only problem I ever had with Schwarber was that he was a DH in a league that had no DH. Now that there is one he’s gone. Irony at it’s finest.
Dude is gonna get WORKED by big league fastballs.
Plenty of salary space for the Cubs to add a significant free agent or 3 this offseason. They should also be busy on the trade front depending on how many FA’s they might sign. The Cubs figure to be one of the players for Shohei Ohtani if the Angels make him available for trade heading into his final arbitration season.
I think the worse thing the Cubs could do is sell their high end talent for ohtani on a one year deal. Sure they could re-sign him but there are no guarantees that he will and if that is the case, why no just wait?
If the Cubs make a deal or two, it should be within more of the middle tier prospects, guys who they cannot protect on the 40 man roster and leave the rest to make mid-season acquisitions if need be.
High end talent? Relax. You have nothing to worry about.
Aaron, your expertise is with your beloved White Sox. There is no way the Cubs have any desire to trade top prospects at this stage of their rebuild, for a commitment to Ohtani. The Cubs have young talented affordable OFers on their doorstep. And with Steele and Wesneski and Stroman on board for 2023, Ohtani is a luxury they shouldn’t be eyeing.
And your opinion regarding Madrigal starting for the Cubs next year- – all I can tell you is, maybe for the Iowa Cubs. Madrigal still has not proven himself at the MLB level. He is not great defensively, has zero power and hasn’t shown he can carry a decent OPS. The Cubs are ready to compete for a playoff spot, certainly as much as your Chisox are, in 2023.
You can’t assume the Angels are strictly looking at a top prospect return for Ohtani. With Mike Trout on the roster they may opt for more established young controllable MLB talent. The Cubs could have some available depending on the FA’s they sign.
Certainly Nick Madrigal’s name might come up in any trade talks this offseason should the Cubs sign one of the elite SS FA’s and shift Nico Hoerner over to 2B. In that scenario, it’s far more likely the Cubs would trade Madrigal this offseason than simply keep him as an infield reserve or use him as 2B insurance at AAA Iowa.
Madrigal’s only real value is as a starting 2B where he profiles best defensively and offensively. As a former recent top prospect with some measure of accomplishment thus far, especially with the White Sox, he still retains considerable trade value for a team looking foe a starting 2B and a hitter with elite contact skills. The White Sox happen to be one of those teams as we post.
Bottom line: I expect both Chicago teams to kick the tires on Ohtani this offseason. The White Sox make more sense as an ‘advanced’ contender and the team with more established young controllable MLB talent. The Cubs might make more sense as the team more likely to extend Ohtani with a huge contract before he hits free agency.
Gentlemen…..
The Angels ae not trading Ohtani.
Not the current owner. Not the incoming owner(s).
You’re probably right. That said and regardless of their ownership situation, the Angels would be taking a huge gamble to have Ohtani hit free agency after this season. They already have a couple of huge contracts on the books and Ohtani might be in line for MLB’s biggest the following offseason.
It might behoove the Angels to cash in on his enormous value this winter in an attempt to finally build a true perennial championship contender. If they can’t extend him this offseason, waiting to trade him at the summer deadline also comes with some added risk, most notably an injury to his golden right arm.
You seem to be implying that the Angels might have interest in Madrigal as part of “young controlled established MLB talent” in return for a trade involving Ohtani, but the angels already have a very similar 2nd baseman in David Fletcher. I don’t think there’s any value in trading what they’ve been trying to build in prospects who become young controllable talent for our own team to throw away for Ohtani and no guarantee of signing him. Also, I don’t see as much value that Ohtani will be offering on his future contract compared to the value of his current contract.
If the Angels trade Ohtani they would want a Soto-like return. Not in the Cubs interest. Maybe Steele, Thompson, Davis, Canario, Armstrong and Christian Hernandez.
Dodgers are the natural partner, Ohtani for Gonsolin, Rios, Cartaya, Vargas, Busch and Miller. But it won’t happen.
Cardinals would be another option: Jordan Walker, Carlson, O’Neill, Gorman, Liberatore and Burlson
My guess, Ohtani stays on Angeles and receives a QO.
Ohtani is a free agent after 2023. It wouldn’t be a Soto-like return, but it still isn’t in the Cubs interest.
Donny,
Most of your posts are sensible so hear me out.
Soto was for one and a half years, in a year when his average was slightly down. Ohtani is a pitcher and a slugger for one full year. Ohtani also helps marketing more. I stick with a Soto-like return.
I do agree with you that it is not in the Cubs interest.
Soto was 2+ years with three potential postseason runs.
My mistake, Trea Turner was one and a half years, Soto is two and a half years. But my point still stands, getting Ohtani is trading for one year of an elite hitter and one year of an elite pitcher. Plus, it opens overseas marketing. I do think Ohtani would get a Soto-like return. I do hope that the Cubs do not make that type of deal. I prefer a slower build that is sustainable. I think Ohtani will be on the Angels in 2023, at least until the trade deadline and maybe the whole season. But if not, my front-runners are the Cardinals, Mets, Yankees and Dodgers.
@NicoHoerndawg
The Nick Madrigal part of my comment was in response to Dogbone and not an implication he might be part of a Shohei Ohtani trade. Nico Hoerner would be the middle infielder/super utility player (ala Ben Zobrist) who would interest the Angels. That’s probably not happening unless the Cubs did sign one of the elite FA shortstops and Hoerner’s inclusion as part of an Ohtani trade was essential to the deal.
Cubs should wait out the market sign some one year veteran deals to fill current voids. One thing they shouldn’t do is block prospects that they believe can play in 2023 ie. Davis, Mervis and PCA along with some of the young pitching. They should get those kids on the field and let them develop at the MLB level to see what you have for 2024 and pounce on Devers if he becomes a free agent.
None of the above mentioned guys are really forcing themselves on to the roster aside from Mervis who isn’t on the 40 man and doesn’t need to be added. With the DH rules in place, the Cubs can act aggressively in free agency without blocking their prospects. Collectively, I find it difficult to believe Mervis, Davis AND Canario will be forcing themselves on to the roster early next season. The Cubs also only have Happ for next year and could easily be a trade candidate in the off-season.
Davis and Canario will not be ready until September 2023 at the soonest.
I wouldn’t say that long, I think by summer Davis will be ready as long as he does well in spring and Iowa. Canario struggling after getting to Iowa so he’s probably more on that late in the year timeline (pending injuries).
Davis had back surgery four months ago, I don’t think he’ll be up before September unless the Cubs are leading the division and Davis has a truly monster first half.
Davis already got hurt in the AFL but strangely nobody is saying why or anything about it for that reason. Hmmmmm
A .924 ops isn’t struggling…
I’d like to see them go after Rodon and Turner. It worked well for them when they signed Lester in ‘14, 2 seasons ahead of their WS year. It set the bar for the rest of the rotation. Acquiring Fowler and signing Zobrist, proven winners, was also great for the young position guys…They’re probably not gonna seriously compete til ‘24, but they can start laying the groundwork while Mercia, Davis, Armstrong and others work their way up.
They could invest in Justin Turner as far as I’m concerned there isn’t a star third baseman for the Cubs currently maybe (David Bote, Nico Hoerner, and etc…) if they count.
Justin Turner a 70% DH, 10% 3B and 20% bench at this stage in his career. Release Franmil Reyes and then try to resign him to a major league minimum deal. Justin Turner might get $9 million on a one year deal and that is too much unless you are looking to go all the way.
True I see your point.
“I’d like to see them go after Rodon and Turner.”
I pretty much read that under every “Offseason Outlook: [Team Name] article.
Of course if they do sign them, you’ll say you ‘knew’ they would.
I’m not going to say that because the Cubs aren’t going to sign either one of those guys…..and at their ages they’re not going to a team that probably won’t contend for a few years…if that.
They’ll have other choices.
A number of insiders thought Lester wouldn’t sign with them and had Zobrist going other places. My original comment was that I hope they sign them. Neither you or I ‘know’ if they will or won’t.
Should sign one of the top starters, a closer, a big 4 SS, a stopgap CF, and then one other big bat to play 1B, 3B, and/or DH. Use Morel as your Zobrist like super sub.
Rotation
Big Name Guy (DeGrom, Rodon, Senga)
Stroman
Steele
Wesneski
Hendricks
Smyly or someone similar
Sampson
Assad
Bullpen
Thompson
Alzolay
Hughes
Wick
Rodriguez
Few Veteran Free Agent Signings, including someone who can theoretically close like Robertson did.
Without a huge look, if I were the Cubs, I’d invest in one big SP, and let the rest of the team develop as is. They aren’t ready to compete, but could be in another year or so. Their rotation is starting to come together, but none of them stand out as #1 candidates.
@Joe Brady. Question: weren’t people saying the same thing about the Guardians a year ago – regarding when they’d be ready to compete?
Dogbone;
B I N G O !
Throw in the Orioles as well.
Every year I write that the teams that will be the most surprising are those that have their young players – as well as veterans – take a major step forward (works on the downside as well). It’s all about the coaching!
This juvenile nonsense about every team in MLB signing 3-4 of the top free agents coming off a good never works. You don’t build a sustainable contending team that way. The closest we can come to that thinking last offseason was the Mets. Would have been great if they stopped the race in mid-August.
The Cubs don’t know what they have yet. They’re still sorting through players. Most importantly, their future depends on how they develop the pitchers they have under contract. One poster pointed out that Hoyer has invested a lot of money in equipment and people skilled in its use to work with the pitchers. Last season saw some improvement. We need to see if that continues in 2023.
The Cubs don’t need to be like the White Sox that went into what they called a “rebuild”. Yet even before the young players got their feet on the ground signed a bunch of free agents, thereby eating up their payroll for years and leaving themselves no flexibility to make player moves that were then found to be needed.
I assume the Cubs FO will be reasonable this offseason and pick up a few veterans that can help them some. They’re not at the point of shelling out the big money to fill a “hole”….because right now they don’t know what people they have in-house that can staff those roles at a far more reasonable salary.
weren’t people saying the same thing about the Guardians a year ago – regarding when they’d be ready to compete?
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I’m not sure what other people were saying a ear ago, but since the Guardians almost always win 90+ games, I’m guessing that not too many people were saying that.
But that said, it doesn’t matter. Simply because every team is capable of winning doesn’t mean that every team should plan on winning. IMO, way too many teams derail a decent rebuild by trying to rush the process.
But I also do not want to dissuade fans from thinking the their team will be competitors.
I’m with you in this argument. Aside from Cleveland almost always being a contender in the past decade they have also had at least one identifiable true ace in their rotation. There’s no pitcher that currently fits that description on the Cubs as we post.
I say go for Turner and shift Nico to second.
First Base can be manned by Rivas until that kid Mervis is ready ( if not ready when the season starts ).
Third Base and CF are the biggest questions and Bote and Wisdom could play the position ( Third Base ) but I prefer to see some type of upgrade.
CF will need to be a one year vet contract.
Rotation look great and the pen could use a veteran arm or two.
Catching is solid but they should add someone if possible.
The Cubs will make a major leap in 2023 and in 2024 they should be back in the thick of things…
Then I’m guessing Nelson Vasquez, Esteban Quiroz, PJ Higgens, Zach Mckinstry, and Framnil Reyes is gonna be set back into the minors? Or will they be key?
Don’t forget Rafael Ortega as well.
Why not forget about Ortega? He stinks. Trade Happ for a good bullpen arm, Sign Bellinger for CF so you don’t have to rush PCA, Let Canario play LF, sign Abreu for a couple of years for DH and 1B, Bring up Mervis and get creative for a 3B. Of-Canario-Bellinger-Suzuki. IF- 3B( mystery)- SS FA or Hoerner, 2B- Hoerner or anybody but Madrigal, 1B Mervis and Abreu. C- Gomes, Higgins and maybe Sean Murphy.. If even half of that gets done it would a good r-L combination lineup with young pitching. I’m in.
Why not forget about Ortega? He stinks. There, I’ve done it already. Trade Happ for a decent bullpen arm. Sign Bellinger so that you don’t have to rush PCA. OF-Canario-Bellinger Suzuki. 3B- ( Mystery man) , SS- Hoerner or FA- 2B- anybody but Madrigal, 2B Hoerner or anybody, IB- Mervis. DH sign Abreu. C- Gomes , Higgins and trade for Sean Murphy. Rotation, Stroman, Steele Wesneski. Maybe sign Tallion or Senga IDK. Chance to be creative here. Morel and Bote and McKinstry maybe for Utility although I’m not crazy about McKinstry. we” see.
Sorry about the double post but this seems to be happening a lot lately for some reason. It disappears and then I have to try and do it again.
I see your point.
Sidenote: Jared Young has played 3B in the Cubs system before. I think they even tossed him into a couple of games this year. With a whole winter of working on his game maybe he can play there? IDK, But there’s just something about the kids swing I really like.
@Jake. ‘That kid’ Mervis – – is already a better hitter than Rivas.
And if you guys can read I wrote if he is ready by Spring.
Rivas is just there to fill in and for you fools that want Abreu please stop because he is old and not worth a three year contract!
Rivas? That’s a joke right?
Maybe if the Yanks get knocked out cubs could swing a trade for Donaldson? Yanks might just be happy to save the $$. If not then look into trading for Urshela or maybe talk to the mets about Escobar. Sign Segura and Nimmo and if you can get him on a 1 yr deal – Conforto
Nimmo – cf
Hoerner- ss
Suzuki-rf/dh
Donaldson 3b
Happ – lf
Conforto- rf/dh
Segura -2b
Wisdom/Mervis 1b
Gomes
Its not the 27 yanks but at least decent enough to be 82 win team and few breaks here or there and maybe a WC
Then where is Escobar?
Only get escobar if can’t get Donaldson
Donaldson no longer offers anything of value at this stage of his career. Not to mention his salary.
That Heyward contract set the Cubs back for years. There were only 2 Pitchers names that intrigued me, Tallion and Senga. Tallion could be one of those buy low-High ceiling guys and Senga I know absolutely nothing about. If Senga is that good and they sign him, As there is no posting fee for him he should be pitching for Japan in the WBC. I’m not even sure if he’s better than the guys the Cubs already have but I’m sure Jed and Carter do. The other interesting name for me is Bellinger. He’s an interesting talent and LH bat so I’m interested. 3B is gonna be harder to fill. They’ll get a few bullpen arms and Jed seems to be fairly adept at digging them up but one guy I’d like to see them get back would be Givens. If his mutual option doesn’t get picked up by the Mets, He’s been solid for years and can’t seem to find a home for some reason. Anyway, Like I’ve said before, This is going to be an interesting Winter to be sure. What will they do? IDK but I’m gonna be watching every move.
rickets spent the money turning wrigleyville into dizeeland. theo stop caring after 2018, no blockbuster trades.
Bellinger is a very interesting player if they can just get him for a year, and maybe a team option for 2nd year. He can also play some at 1st base if Mervis faulters, at least late in the season if a guy like PCA is tearing up AA and they wanna start breaking him in.
Yep, Heyward set the Cubs back years.
After helping to win a ws, of course.
Sometimes I think cubs fans would be willing to get rid of that ws title to get out of the heyward contract. And of course, Maddon, Theo, et al are constantly criticized by cubs fans…
We suffer from a short memory. Or just aren’t very smart. But I laugh at some of this stuff… Thanks, J Hey, for all you did. Yes you were “overpaid”…but what is the pecuniary worth of a world series title?
It’s a serious reach to say Jason Heyward helped the Cubs win the World Series. He had a terrible season and was an easy out throughout the postseason.
You can do a butterfly effect thing and say any change to 2016 wouldn’t have resulted in the WS win. Given how small the margin was in that win, I guess that’s fine if not particularly helpful. But suggesting an intangible rain delay speech justifies one of the worst contracts in baseball history, I’m not on board with that. It was literally minutes before that speech that Heyward failed to get a runner home from third with less than two outs.
Exactly. If you’re implying that Heyward helped win the WS I would counter that by saying his stupid contract helped keep them from winning a few more. Any number of cheaper RF’s would of helped the Cubs win that Series.
You are probably right Tim. That said, Jason Heyward’s value as a veteran leader in a clubhouse with such a young core did have some value throughout the 2016 season and the playoffs, not just for his one rain delay pep talk. Nobody is going to dispute his bad contract, at least in hindsight.
Don’t laugh at the Cubs. They can’t help it. I just hope they put a decent product on the field in 2023.
Cubs need to re-sign Contreras by any means necessary. Cut ties with David Bote. Extend Nico Hoerner. Sign a SP get a lot of bullpen help. SS isn’t a major need but if they can sign one of the big SS to a short term deal. Max 7 years. They should have no problem contending sooner rather than later. They contended 2 years before they were suppose to the first time. No reason to believe they can’t be contenders in 2023.
Contreras = Movie*. *= Gone Baby Gone
Great movie. One of my favorites.
No to Contreras resigning. Although I’d be ok with him accepting the QO. I just don’t think he’s gonna age well. He already has injury and hamstring problems every season and misses time. That’s not gonna go away as he gets older and the recoveries will begin to slow down. I like him, but he’s not gonna maintain what we’d wanna get from him for the money he’s gonna be paid. As for Bote, I can’t see them just cutting him and paying his contract, but perhaps he’d be part of an off season trade where they’d pay down half his contract for the team that takes him.
I like Bote but he just wouldn’t cut it on another team. He’ll always be known for his walk off slam vs the Nats. He’s had some serious injuries the last 2 years as well. He only as a platoon guy. He should definitely not be playing 1st. I say try to re-sign Willson because he’s still the heart and soul of the team and a huge mentor to the kids that got called up this season. Especially Christopher Morel.
Yeah, I’m gonna say no thanks to signing a 30 year old catcher “by any means necessary”. Willson is very good but he is not posada or yadi. Let someone else make that mistake
Cubs really aren’t 1 or two or even3 free agents away from a division title or post season or even to put fans in the seats. They need more pitching prospects from their minors to bring up to the majors.
Signing a few 1 year free agents to trade off mid season is a better senario.
They aren’t that far away and if you think that then you just haven’t been paying attention to what’s been happening in the Minor League’s.
Indeed, reading the post in detail, this is someone not paying attn, prob just another Cub hater.
Citizen
You are wrong, but not because the Cubs are that great.
Brewers are going to trade Burnes or Woodruff and Peralta is an injury risk. They may even release Renfroe and rely upon Frelick, Mitchell or Ruiz.
Cardinals do not have great starting pitching and may lose Wainwright if he retires. Pujols will not be around to defy aging. Molina will be gone, too.
I think that by adding one frontline starter (deGrom or Rodon), one frontline reliever (maybe Robert Suarez), and a solid innings eater like Anderson or Senga, and the Cubs could be an 87-88 game winner that takes the division.
As a small kid growing up coz of Ferguson Jenkins , Cubbies were my favourite team. Always a soft spot for the Cubs. So no offence cub fans. But your team stinks.
“Just because a team is bad doesn’t mean they’ll be bad forever.”
Ok, Mr Poo.
Thanks for reading my post. I thought it would be cool to hold team-centric chats here at MLBTR over the next month or so. I’ll kick it off tomorrow at 9am central time with a Cubs chat. Here’s the link for it!
jotcast.com/chat/cubs-offseason-chat-with-tim-dier…
Tim,
Sounds great. I sent a question now because that is 7:00 a.m. on the West Coast and I am busy preparing breakfast for my son.
I doubt that the Cubs “regret” the Heyward contract. Flags fly forever.
As I wrote above, I don’t buy the logic that Heyward’s speech caused the WS win or justifies the contract. I think to absolve the Cubs of that contract because of that speech is goofy.
Tim Dierkes;
Yes, but Theo Epstein gave out that contract and he never did/does anything wrong.
He can swim oceans and move mountains. (A bit light on developing pitchers….just to show he’s human.)
You are saying, in effect, that if the Cubs don’t sign Jason Heyward to an eight-year, $184MM contract in December 2015, they don’t win the 2016 WS.
This requires one to think that the path the Cubs took, with huge emphasis on Heyward’s rain delay speech, was the only way they could’ve won that WS.
It ignores all possible other variables. Just to give one example, the Cubs were, according to Theo, “very interested” in David Price that offseason. Maybe without Heyward they sign Price, do something else with RF, etc. Maybe Price wins a game in the WS that the Cubs otherwise would have lost. Maybe they sign some other dude who gives really great rain delay speeches that causes Schwarber, Zobrist, and Montero to get hits that they simply could not have otherwise gotten.
“We won” is the justification for a gazillion bad contracts. It’s ridiculous. How hard is it to replace a 1.0 bWAR player for $21M.
It is easier to argue that the Cubs could’ve won multiple WSC’s had they invested the $184M in someone else.
kinda like saying since barry zito had one good playoff game, that contract was worth it. 7 year bloated contract, several times left off the post season rosters.
Some other pitcher could have easily pitched on that team,.
The burning questions is, where does Heyward land?
Cohn Joppolella:
Q: Where does Heyward land?
A: Valinor
Here’s to another year where they say they are going to spend money and they sign another round of lukewarm talent. Hendricks is toast and they’re going to be paying Heyward to be retired or play somewhere else. The farm system is a disaster. I fully expect a team to take the hit for signing Contreras. This FO talks a lot and does nothing to meet the level of talent that they talk about acquiring. I’m expecting anything not nailed down to be dealt this year. I see Horner, Madrigal, Happ and anyone with value to be out the door. They’re going to go into the 2023-2024 offseason with a signed payroll under 50 million. Wouldn’t be surprised if they run 2024 with a sub 75 million payroll at this point.
You need to stop listening to the voices in your head and take a chill pill… These conspiracy theories won’t get you very far.
And here’s to another year of hearing that Ricketts doesn’t spend blah, Blah Blah. The guy hired good people, has turned their Minor Leagues into something to envied, Rebuilt the ballpark with absolutely no help from the City, Started a TV Station to compete with the other big market teams that had one, and then saw an epidemic trash everything he built for 2 years so yeah , That guy is REALLY cheap. I wish he would buy the Bears and be that cheap. The people who bash Ricketts are complete fools.
Municipalities shouldn’t begiving out handouts to businesses to begin with. As for the TV station that has harmed a lot of fans that no longer have access to games because their carrier doesn’t have Marque sports. That was just a cash grab, it made sense for the business’ bottom line to start a network and rake in the advertising and carrier fees rather than selling broadcasting rights. The valuation and income of the team has skyrocketed since Marquee sports was launched. 2020 didn’t have the massive impact on the sport you claim it did. Why are other teams spending 200million+ on lineups but the 4th most valuable franchise isn’t spending at all?
The minor leagues being loaded you say? We will see about that in 3 years. when they start coming up. As for that the top prospect looks like his career is in jeopardy because of injuries, primarily a back injury that required surgery.
In the end I’ll believe it when I see it. Your crystal ball is as cloudy as mine.
They should release Jason Heyward like yesterday. Or could they make him work a concession stand? He’d be more productive….
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Well written, concise, and informative. Well done!
Cubs Offseason
Carlos Correa SS – 250×7 opt-outs after the third year.
Kodai Senga SP – 80×5
José Abreu 1B/DH – 26×2
Cody Bellinger CF 18×1
Nico Hoerner SS/2B 60×5 contract extension with a 15 million club option that would raise the contract to 75×6.
TRADE
Danny Jansen C for Caleb Kilian SP, Rowan Wick RP
Cubs 2023
1- Nico Hoerner 2B
2- Seiya Suzuki RF
3- Ian Happ LF
4- Carlos Correa SS
5- José Abreu 1B
6- Cody Bellinger CF
7- Danny Jansen C
8- Matt Mervis/Patrick Wisdom DH
9- Christopher Morel/Zach Mckinstry 3B
Rotación
1- Kodai Senga R
2- Marcus Stroman R
3- Justin Steele L
4- Kyle Hendricks R
5- Hayden Wesneski R
Are you from the future?
Wow, this is awesome. And looks like it was a ton of work. Thanks so much, Tim. This is quite comprehensive.