The Red Sox are trying to bounce back from a last-place finish in the AL East, but they face the possible departure of a longtime star.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trevor Story, IF: $120MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Story can opt out after 2025 season)
- Xander Bogaerts, SS: $60MM through 2025, $20MM club option for 2026 (Bogaerts can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
- Chris Sale, SP: $55MM through 2024, with $20MM club option for 2025 ($20MM of guaranteed money is deferred; Sale can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
- Eric Hosmer, 1B: $39MM through 2025 (Padres covering all but the annual minimum MLB salary; Hosmer can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
- Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout of $8.25MM club option for 2027; Red Sox also have a $10.5MM club option for 2028, with a $500K buyout)
- Enrique Hernandez, IF/OF: $10MM through 2023
- Matt Barnes, RP: $9.75MM through 2023 (includes $2.25MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)
Option Decisions
- James Paxton, SP: $13MM club options for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, to be exercised at the same time; if Red Sox decline the options, Paxton has a $4MM player option for 2023
- Tommy Pham, OF: $6MM mutual option for 2023 ($1.5MM buyout)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ryan Brasier (5.109): $2.3MM
- Rafael Devers (5.070): $16.9MM
- Nick Pivetta (4.166): $5.9MM
- Franchy Cordero (4.092): $1.5MM
- Alex Verdugo (4.078): $6.9MM
- Rob Refsnyder (4.048): $1.6MM
- Christian Arroyo (4.036): $2.2MM
- Josh Taylor (3.121): $1.1MM
- Reese McGuire (3.027): $1.3MM
- Yu Chang (3.007): $900K
- Non-tender candidates: Cordero, Taylor, Chang
Free Agents
With a 78-84 record in baseball’s most competitive division, the Red Sox suffered their fifth last-place finish in the last 11 seasons. It is the latest dip in a strangely inconsistent era for the franchise, as the Sox have also captured two World Series titles from five postseason appearances in that same 11-year stretch. The presence of certain tentpole stars (i.e. David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers) have helped the Sox make these quick turn-arounds, and yet that stability isn’t as apparent heading into 2023.
Bogaerts’ fate is the biggest question facing the Red Sox as the offseason begins, as the shortstop is expected to test free agency and opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his contract. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and members of the ownership group have all said both publicly and privately that they want to retain Bogaerts, the shortstop wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, and Bogaerts has repeatedly stated that his preference would be to remain in Boston. However, the Sox reportedly made a curiously low offer (one additional year and $30MM added onto Bogaerts’ current deal) during Spring Training extension talks, and already seemed to be laying the groundwork for Bogaerts’ departure by signing All-Star shortstop Trevor Story last offseason.
Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series is over, the Sox still have some time to negotiate with Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras. While it isn’t totally uncommon to see notable players work out new extensions this close to the open market, the air of finality that has seemed to hang over Bogaerts’ Red Sox tenure creates plenty of doubt that a new deal can indeed be reached, before or after the Sox have to start bidding against other teams for Bogaerts’ services.
Between Bogaerts and outright free agents like J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, this offseason could mark something of the end of an era in Boston, especially after longtime catcher Christian Vazquez was already dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline. That said, the Vazquez deal was the only rebuild-esque move made at the deadline, as the Sox otherwise kept most of their veterans and even added more experienced help in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer.
That attempt at a last-minute push for a wild card berth well fell short, leaving the Sox slightly above the luxury tax threshold (and the only one of the six tax-paying teams to not reach the playoffs). The actual $900K in taxes is a relative drop in the bucket, but the Red Sox now face added penalties in regards to qualifying-offer free agents this winter. Should the Sox sign a QO-rejecting free agent, they’ll have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2023 draft. Also, the compensatory pick that the Red Sox would themselves receive if a QO-rejecting free agent — like Bogaerts or Eovaldi — signed elsewhere will now fall after the fourth round of the draft.
The luxury tax penalty adds another wrinkle to a busy offseason for Bloom. It is worth mentioning that Bloom’s immediate predecessors in the job (Dave Dombrowski and Ben Cherington) were each fired after four years or less, even though both had overseen a World Series champion during their tenure. While ownership may be more patient this time around, Bloom has thus far sandwiched a trip to the 2021 ALCS between two last-place finishes, so he could be facing extra pressure to get the Red Sox back to contention.
In fairness, the Sox were a lot more competitive than your usual last-place team, and might have been contenders in any other division. (Boston had an ugly 26-50 record against AL East opponents but were a dominant 52-34 against non-division clubs.) The Red Sox might’ve made more of a charge in 2022 if they’d had had only an average number of injuries, yet the AL East is so competitive that the Sox can hardly just run things back and hope for better health next year, especially with so much key personnel slated for free agency.
All of the potential departures do leave a lot of open payroll space heading into the winter, and yet though Bloom is the CBO of a team that surpassed the luxury tax threshold, splashy moves haven’t really been Bloom’s forte. Story’s six-year, $140MM deal is far and away the largest contract given to a free agent during Bloom’s tenure, as the Red Sox have mostly preferred to look for value in shorter-term free agent deals and lower-profile trades and acquisitions.
Could this be the year that Bloom truly splurges on the open market? Signing Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander would be a big way of upgrading the pitching staff, or making a push for Aaron Judge would add more fuel to the fire of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry. While Bloom’s front office has routinely at least checked in with many of the top free agents of the last few seasons, his propensity to swing trades is another avenue for roster improvement.
For instance, Boston has the financial flexibility to take on a pricey contract from a team looking to cut payroll — whether that big contract belonged to a player the Sox are targeting, or a player whose deal the Sox are willing to eat in order to obtain another player they really want. With so much money coming off the books, the Red Sox might be able to reload their roster and still stay under next year’s $232MM tax threshold.
Story’s first Boston season wasn’t a triumph, as he hit .238/.303/.434 in 396 plate appearances and played in only 94 games due to a hairline fracture in his wrist and then a late-season heel contusion. He is the obvious choice to move back to his old shortstop position if Bogaerts leaves, though Story could potentially remain at second base if the Red Sox signed another big-name free agent shortstop (such as Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson). Such a scenario may be less likely than Boston spending its biggest money at another position, but if any of the major shortstop are open to an opt-out clause after a couple of seasons a la Story, there could be room for the Red Sox to strike.
Keeping Story at second base might be Boston’s preference over moving him to shortstop and going with the respectable but unspectacular collection of internal second-base options. The Red Sox reached an early extension with Enrique Hernandez to keep him off the free agent market, but Hernandez might ultimately offer more value as a regular center fielder. Even if Hernandez only sees limited time in the infield, Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder — who hit very well after joining the Sox on a minors contract — figure to take a good chunk of the playing time. Another acquisition could be added to this group, and the Red Sox would also love to see former top prospect Jeter Downs get on track at the MLB level after struggling in his last two minor league seasons.
Speaking of top prospects, Triston Casas made his Major League debut in 2022 and had a respectable .766 OPS over his first 95 PA in the Show. Casas figures to get the bulk of playing time at first base, with Hosmer on hand as a veteran complement since Hosmer isn’t likely to exercise his own opt-out clause. It’s something of an imperfect combination since both Casas and Hosmer are left-handed hitters, yet DH at-bats could be available if Martinez isn’t retained, or the Red Sox might end up parting ways with Hosmer if another roster upgrade opportunity presents itself.
After Vazquez was traded, the Reese McGuire/Connor Wong tandem delivered quality defense, and McGuire hit well at the plate. Boston might look to emulate the Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Yankees, and Rays as contenders who prioritize defense and game-calling over offense from the catcher’s position, but Bloom has said that the Red Sox will at least explore other options. A reunion with Vazquez might not be entirely out of the question, or the Sox might pursue a longer-term catcher like Athletics trade candidate Sean Murphy.
Devers is both the biggest sure thing on Boston’s roster heading into 2023, and also its biggest long-term question mark. The third baseman is coming off another strong offensive year, but he is also a free agent after the 2023 season, and (as with Bogaerts) extension talks this past spring didn’t yield much progress. Bloom has been emphatic that Devers isn’t a trade candidate this offseason or in the foreseeable future, and even if more contract negotiations don’t lead to a new deal, it is probable that the Red Sox wouldn’t consider swapping Devers until the trade deadline at the earliest.
Martinez was still an above-average (119 wRC+) force at the plate in 2022, yet his power numbers dropped off and he made a full-on transition to designated hitter, without a single game played in the field. With Martinez now entering his age-35 season, his time in Boston could be up, as the Red Sox may prefer to rotate multiple players through the DH spot, or give the bulk of DH time to a younger player with more upside.
The outfield is the most logical spot for a new addition, as Hernandez and Alex Verdugo are the only incumbents likely to see a lot of playing time. Franchy Cordero is a non-tender candidate, former top-100 prospect Jarren Duran has yet to establish himself either offensively or defensively in limited MLB playing time, and Pham’s mutual option (like virtually all mutual options) isn’t likely to be exercised. Pham might be brought back on a smaller contract and the Red Sox won’t give up on Duran this soon, but one or even two proven regulars would go a long way towards adding more pop to the lineup.
There are plenty of interesting bats available in free agency, ranging from Judge at the top of the outfield market to other prominent names like Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, and more. Teams like the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Giants also stand out as potential trade partners thanks to their surplus of outfield talent, plus any number of other possibilities could emerge given how other clubs adjust their rosters.
While the Red Sox lineup was lacking in power in 2022, it was still a pretty productive (ninth in runs scored) unit overall, even if some of that production will need to be replaced or upgraded. A different challenge is faced with the pitching staff, as the Sox didn’t get good results from either the rotation or bullpen, but have to address some potential key departures.
The advanced metrics didn’t much like Michael Wacha’s work last season, but his one-year, $7MM contract ended up being a nice investment for the Red Sox thanks to Wacha’s 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings. The ageless Rich Hill continued to post solid numbers even in his age-42 season, and another return to Boston is always a possibility, even if Hill has floated the idea of only pitching for part of the season, or pitching for a clear-cut contender.
Re-signing Wacha or Hill might just require one-year deals, but a larger commitment would be necessary to retain Eovaldi, even coming off an injury-hampered season. Eovaldi was limited to 109 1/3 innings and allowed some of the most hard contact of any pitcher in the league, but still delivered a 3.87 ERA. The right-hander was an All-Star as recently as 2021, yet Eovaldi’s checkered injury history and the fact that he’s entering his age-33 season might make the Sox wary of signing him to another longer-term contract.
Chris Sale is a cautionary case in this regard, as he has pitched only 48 1/3 regular-season innings over the life of his five-year, $145MM extension (covering the 2020-24 seasons). The southpaw was limited to only 5 2/3 innings in 2022 due to a variety of injuries, including a stress fracture in his rib, a finger fractured by an Aaron Hicks comebacker, and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident. While Sale is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training, the Sox can’t be sure exactly what they’re getting next season — just getting Sale back onto a mound would count as a win at this point, let alone getting him back to his old ace form.
Sale, Nick Pivetta, and rookie Brayan Bello are penciled into three rotation spots, while a pair of other young arms in Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford could either be depth options or in competition for a job in Spring Training. The Red Sox figure to keep at least one spot open in the rotation for a competition, or to give Garrett Whitlock another look as a starter. However, acquiring two more starters to eat innings and pitch at the front of the rotation would make this entire group look a lot more capable of competing against the AL East’s big offenses. James Paxton may also be a factor if he (as expected) exercises his $4MM player option in the wake of another injury-marred campaign, yet Paxton has pitched only 21 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, and none at all in 2022 due to a lat strain while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
John Schreiber was one of the bright spots of the season, as the 28-year-old unexpectedly emerged as Boston’s most consistent reliever and a regular ninth-inning choice. Matt Barnes also got some save opportunities down the stretch, as after a rough start to the season and a stint on the 60-day injured list, Barnes returned from the IL in great form. Between these two, Whitlock (if he returns to the bullpen), and Ryan Brasier (who pitched much better than his 5.78 ERA would indicate), the Red Sox have some interesting pieces in the pen, even if more depth is certainly needed. It has never been Bloom’s style to invest too heavily in the pen, so expect more lower-level relief acquisitions rather than a pursuit of a big name like Edwin Diaz.
When the Red Sox finished in last place in 2020, Bloom responded with a big flurry of offseason moves, which provided enough upgrades for the Sox to finish only two games shy of a berth in the 2021 World Series. Of course, the 2021 team had Bogaerts, Devers, and a resurgent Martinez and Eovaldi all firing on all cylinders, and Devers might be the only member of that group wearing a Boston uniform in 2023. As aggressive as Bloom has been in reshaping the Red Sox with under-the-radar or mid-tier transactions, some big swings may be necessary to get the Sox back into contention this time around.
Trade for Acuna. Give me Kiké Hernández and Verdugo.
Actually nevermind. The Braves can do better than those two. Sox have nothing worth going for. But I’d trade for either of those two to replace Rosario and Ozuna.
LOL trade Acuna.
Not even Devers?
Braves have no room for him with Riley at 3rd. I’d take Devers over Riley in a heartbeat though.
NL dropping the DH next year?
The Braves will not DH Riley because he is an elite or close to elite defender. The one realistic option (if you want to play this game) is move one of the them to left field. With that being said, Devers is an unrealistic option for the Braves for many reasons. For one, they need to resign Swanson. That is the first thing they need to prioritize. After, work on trading Acuna and/or Albies.
One year of devers isn’t even close to 6 years of a team friendly contract for Acuna.
Yes and no. The Braves WILL win the WS next season with Devers. The Braves will not touch the WS with Acuna in the next 6 years.
Acuna is coming off of major knee surgery. Year 2 after surgery is when players return to form. He will be an mvp candidate next year. The Braves lost this year because your starters crapped the bed and not because of Acuna.
Nothing to do with his surgery. He always been lackadaisical on defense. So that will never change. As for his hitting, pitchers learned how to pitch to him. His power will surely be there. He will be a perennial .250 hitter with 25+ homers. Not a bad player, but far from elite as some people still think he is. The Braves need to move on from him while the value is there. They can fill many positions now and later with a trade.
As for the DS, all the luck the Mets had on the regular season through the end of August transferred to the Phillies in the DS. Quite hilarious honestly how everything went the Phils way in the DS. The Braves were terrible on all fronts, which is ridiculous because even doing the bad times this season, there was some part of the team that contributed. Rotation was terrible, offense was terrible, defense was terrible, and the bullpen was terrible.
The Braves can send him up to New York and have him hurt the Mets chances of winning the World Series.
Sure, give me McNeil and Marte. I’d ask for deGrom, but he will be a Brave via free agency.
LOL you will already be close to the salary luxury tax before you sign anyone. The Braves aren’t paying Degrom close to fifty million a year. I would trade you Marte and Parada for him.
Which reminds me how stupid it was to give Morton an extension. The poor guy had piss poor luck lately, but he is unfortunately done.
Yes 40 mil for age 39 and 40 seasons was a head scratcher. You could have spent that money more wisely on a younger pitcher in free agency.
The Mets did the same with Max. Albeit, he is a better pitcher than Morton, but still. Some guys are worth investing in and both guys might still be effective next season. I still believe the Braves will get deGrom, but maybe that is just my hopeful thinking. A lot will ride in how much payroll the Braves manage to clear.
I don’t see how the Braves clear any payroll. Almost all of it was the contracts to lock up your young talent. I would be shocked if Degrom left the Mets. Cohen is an ultra fan and has way deeper pockets then anyone else. I think this is all just a smart move for Degrom to get a lot of money from a very rich owner. The Braves ownership is a corporation and isn’t going way over luxury tax to sign anyone.
deGrom will go where he wants. If he wants NY, he will go there. If he wants to be closer to Florida, he will go somewhere closer to the south.
I’ll allow AA to work his magic.
He will go to where he gets generational wealth. He isn’t giving a home town discount especially when it’s not his home town.
I disagree. deGrom is at a point of his career where he will prioritize winning over wealth. We will see, but he is deserving of whatever he gets, even though he is rarely healthy in recent years.
TradeAcunaresignSwanson makes a good argument every time he posts why free speech should be banned.
Sadly, voiding contracts is banned. I’m sure the Braves would like to void multiple contracts, including Acuna’s even if he is “cheap” by baseball standards.
If they can dump story and sign dansby that would be awesome.
…and next offseason I expect you’ll be posting you want to dump Dansby.
Story signing wasn’t going to put this team over the top, it felt like impulse spending. L It’s probably safest to just resign Bogaerts, Red Sox already know what they are getting and the pressure of playing in Boston isn’t much of a factor for him.
Bosox – I disagree. Teams typically don’t invest $140M in a free agent unless they believe it will put them over the top. They came close to the WS the prior year, so they WERE at the top going into last offseason.
I think you need to forget about Xander, that ship has sailed. Bloom would look like a total idiot if he signed Xander to a market value contract after lowballing him just a few months ago.
“Teams typically don’t invest $140M in a free agent unless they believe it will put them over the top”
Thats not true. Every team is at a different point in their evolution. Padres didn’t sign Hosmer to $144M contract, after a .400 season, in the same division as Giants and Dodgers, and say “Yep, this puts us over the top”.
“Bloom would look like a total idiot if he signed Xander to a market value contract after lowballing him just a few months ago.”
Why? Isn’t that called ‘negotiating’. If someone really like a house on the market and offer 100K under value, and doesnt get it, does it make him an idiot for later, buying it for the same price it would’ve cost all along? You just like to put “Bloom” and “idiot”: in the same sentence, every chance you get.
Plus, no one player, no matter who it is, is going to put a team “over the top”. Fans overestimate just how much of a difference one player makes.
if the shoe fits–wear it
Verlander, Hagniger and Acuna
Acuna has a zero chance of leaving Atlanta.
tend to think the decision on pivetta as a non-tender candidate is tighter than mr. polishuk made out
Pivetta hasn’t been great, but he had 3.7 fWAR over two seasons and he’s eaten a lot of innings. Since the Sox have so many question marks in the rotation, keeping Pivetta for $5.9MM seems like a relatively safe call.
In most ways, Pivetta is exactly mediocre. In the MLB, mediocre SP is worth $6M easy.
Joe – Welcome back! I figured you’d return after the disastrous season ended.
Yes, Pivetta’s core numbers reflect mediocrity. But there’s something unique about him. Unlike other mediocre pitchers who consistently give up 3 runs in 5+ innings each game, Pivetta has been absolutely brilliant in 25% of his games and absolutely awful in 25% of his games.
Did you know he’s 25th in the league in Quality Starts. If we use just that stat, he’s the #2 starter on 6 AL teams and the #3 starter on the 9 others.
From May 7th thru July 4th he was 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA and averaged nearly 7 innings a start. The fact he’s capable of that great a stretch indicates to me that he’s a lot more valuable than just a mediocre pitcher with a 4.56 ERA. The key is to pull him quickly when he clearly doesn’t have his best stuff.
Are you the guy that bragged about predicting more than 81 wins in 2021 and gave the math guy a hard time for predicting what we saw this year? Haha….. you sure look silly now. Pretty big of the other guy not to rub it in.
Pivetta is one those pitchers that’s “meh” as a starter but has the stuff to be a dominant reliever.
No chance he is non-tendered.
I forgot that Aaron Hicks broke Chris Sale’s finger.
Only time Hicks really hurt an opposing team in the batter’s box this season.
Ya think Sale will opt out? Lol
Could he get a better deal? Highly unlikely
About as much chance as Bobby Bonilla opting out of his Mets deal.
Several interesting parallels between the Red Sox and Giants.
It’s truly like Bloom is looking to deep-six this franchise. Maybe he’s still loyal to Tampa. Maybe he’s just dense. But he has done nothing for this team. This is the beginning of a long dry spell, not only for the Sox, but for all of Boston (I’m looking at Pats fans, too)
The Sox did make the ALCS last year.
They did so on the remnants of the 2018 (Dombrowski) Red Sox World Series team and Hernandez getting on one of the hottest streaks in playoff history. Bloom is the one signed Hernandez but nobody can project players getting hot like he did.
Yeah, and most of these guys were suicidal by May.
Short memories.
The NFL is not baseball.
Remember that time when the Bosox DFA’ed Jeffrey Springs then traded him to a division rival: 135.1 IP, 3.0 fWAR, 26.2% K, 5.6% BB, 2.46 ERA, 3.04 FIP in 2022.
I guess I just don’t see what the Red Sox ownership see’s in Bloom. Your not going to win consistently without pitching and he’s basically found 2 really good relievers (Whitlock/Schreiber) in his time as CBO, he even traded one of his top pitching prospects (Jay Groome) in the Hosmer trade. Regardless of what anyones opinion of Groome is, Bostons pitching at both big league and minor league levels are a mess. The big trades he’s made have been mostly bust except maybe Schwarber. Can any Red Sox fan say they are confident with where this organization is headed. Sure, there are some nice pieces in the minors but every team in the league has a few good prospects. Bloom has been at the helm a few years and what has really changed? It feels like all I’ve done is watched talented players leave or start heading for the door.
Groome wasn’t really of the Sox top pitching prospects. He’d been with the organization for 6 years and last year was his first in which he tore more than 15 innings above A ball..
I get the frustration, but the Sox haven’t really been primed to sign and add to the pitching staff. The payroll has been over $230mil the past couple seasons
I understand that Groome’s stock has dropped each year and I’m not implying he was going to be the next ace but when your desperate for pitching, don’t trade what little you have away or at least replace what your losing.
Well said, Bosox. Bloom has made a mess of things in Boston. Sox have an identity crisis that will only get worse when Bogaerts departs. Pedro recently referenced same – Bloom is erasing a certain legacy.
Bosox2013 – The Red Sox farm system was a mess when Dombroski got fired! It is light years better now! Groome was not even one of the top 10 pitching prospects! His stuff never came back after TJ surgery, and you obviously know nothing of the farm system.
JC# – Not true. Farm system continued it’s trend of producing MLB talent but Bloom chose to send it elsewhere. Mookie, Benny, Chavis all had excellent years for someone else thanks to Bloom. They represent the great farm system that existed before Bloom. Bloom is a guy who self proclaims an improvement and backs it up through his political associations with the rating systems. He got Downs and he’s gone down not up. Most of the rise in the ranking is from drafting early due to failure and the rise of farm guys here before Bloom showed up. Houck? Casas? The great farm system has regressed not improved. The big difference is the “hype” provided by the marketing team. Lots of arms got tested last year and nobody shined like Houck his first season. Bellow may end up being the next to follow Houck as a quality MLB pitcher.
Face it. Ownership “pulled a Bloom” when they hired him. That new catch phrase is synonymous with making a massive mistake.
Well said, Pulled! Refreshing take as opposed to the company-man-approach of so many Sox fans. On that note, I’ve got some “magic beans” for sale to anyone who believes the “farm system” distraction.
Great points, PulledaBloom.
Groome was going to be DFA’d and Bloom turned him into two dudes with upside who aren’t R5 eligible for two more years.
This Bloom hate is just a product of NY/Boston syndrome. Team misses the playoffs once and the fans act like heads must roll.
actually it might have something to do with FIVE last places in the past 11 years
So blame a guy who wasn’t with the team for the overwhelming majority of that time? Ok. Sure.
It’s very hard to tell what direction this team is going in. This off-season will completely define it.
pwndroia;
Why is it so hard to tell the direction the team is going in?
For years they’ve been building an organization and filling their farm system with young players they’re developing. They’re trying to get their ML payroll into some sort of normalcy as – I keep writing – in 2022 they had the 6th highest payroll in MLB and finished last in the AL East.
They have little flexibility except to pick up low-salaried discarded players from other teams and hope. Most of their players are overpaid for that they produce (see above paragraph) which makes them unattractive for other teams to trade something decent in return for them. This has been going on for years. You haven’t noticed this?
In short, this team has been in a long-term rebuild. Maybe in the next year or two a group of young, hungry, talented, fundamentally strong baseball players committed to the team winning will show up in Spring Training ready to fight for roster spots with the Red Sox. Maybe not, then this GM will be fired and someone else will come in and not be able to do much when they have to put together a 26 man roster to compete with other MLB teams.
It’s looking like they could use an experienced, proven, MLB PoBO person that could do Houdini like things. You know – a Dave Dombrowski type. But people like that are not available. Most teams have enough common sense to not let a guy like that go.
Bloom hasn’t called it a “long term rebuild” and insists he wants to be a playoff team despite building for the future. That’s why it’s not clear.
I doubt Bloom is ever going to let the world know his plans. Strategically, that is a dumb move.
You have a point but he should at least indicate a direction the team is going in. He’s bought and sold on multiple occasions so it’s hard to know if he’s all in to win or focusing primarily for the future. Devers and Bogaerts will determine this partially.
Bloom is focusing on the future. But, announcing that would kill ticket sales/interestj, so he cant. Shocked people don’t understand this logic.
It’s only not clear if you insist that a team must be either rebuilding or going for it all now for there to be clarity. There are other, more subtle options for plans.
Samuel: What Houdini-like things did Dombrowski do? He traded from a well-stocked farm system to win a World Series. That is good, but not Houdini-like.
All in – You are correct! Dombrowski did nothing brilliant. He used Epstein draftees and int signees: Betts, JBJ, Barnes, Vazquez, Bogaerts, Tazawa… and Cherington draftees and int signees: Benintendi, Devers, Moncada (traded for Sale), and spent a $hit ton of money on Price. He traded away 2/3 of the best prospects gutting the system on Kimbrel and Sale. In short, almost all the pieces were in place when DD arrived!
All you need is an owner will to spend way over the CBT, and understand that after the 3 year window you will suffer.
JC#1;
If “all the pieces were there” then why did the Sox owner hire him? And why did he allow Dombrowski to spend money and issue those contracts?
He did what the Red Sox owner wanted.
He’s currently doing what the Phillies owner wants. If you think the Phillies owner (and fans) are dissatisfied with him…….
JC – Do you think the team Dombrowski inherited was better than the team Bloom inherited? Remember, Papi retired and left a huge hole. The team had next to no pitching and yes the young core group was not drafted by Dombrowski but it was also not sent elsewhere by Dombrowski like Bloom did. Adding JD and Sale changed the Red Sox over night. 3 years later not one move by Bloom has changed the Red Sox over night or long term.
Think of this like putting a puzzle together. Dombrowski is excellent at seeing the current pieces and finding the missing pieces. Bloom simply doesn’t want to use the old pieces, he wants to build his own puzzle and it’s going to take a very, very long time.especially if he loses more key pieces he inherited when he arrived.
You see the ship as traveling forward under Bloom. I see the ship traveling backward under Bloom. The puzzle was 95% complete when Bloom arrived and now it’s maybe 50% complete. When Dombrowski arrived it was 50% complete and he completed it in 2 years.
Now he’s doing the same in Philly. Don’t you wish that was the Red Sox?
Bloom spent more than Dombrowski ever did and is 4 games over .500 after 3 seasons (one shortened) and Dombrowski in nearly four seasons finished 104 games over .500.
To suggest Bloom is a good GM is loyalty not reality. He’s terrible and he’s set back the organization half a decade. Can you see a ring in 2 years? If not, then it’s more than half a decade.
and who EXACTLY has Bloom done?
Sox need to get younger! It’s going to take a
little more time to get our talent to the big league level! You draft the best player available regardless of position! The pitching has not been available in the draft, everyone is looking for pitching! Give Bloom two more years before you want to start running him out of town! We have 4 world championships in the last 12 years! How many has any other club has done? Exactly, management knows what it is doing! Give it more time! I would sign Deavers to a huge contract!
The Red Sox have never won any “world championships” in anything other than Murica, F#&k Yeah!
Your a dick
“The pitching has not been available in the draft, everyone is looking for pitching!”
Thec’s;
Teams with good pitching today develop their own. The Orioles had a terrific pitching staff in 2022 – only one of which had been drafted by them; and he was called up from the minors around August. Their pitchers primarily came to them off the waiver wire with others that had been DFA’ed by their team. Their ML coaching staff worked with those pitchers and developed them. In fact, they made one discarded pitcher a closer. He had such a good year that the Twins traded the Orioles 4 pitching prospects for him! The Twins did that because had a poor coaching staff for pitchers, so (thinking like many Red Sox fans) – they bought a closer. Of course that guy lost his closers role with the Twins as they couldn’t recalibrate him when he started going bad. Now….who couldn’t see that coming?
And when the nations baseball media was making fun of the Orioles for trading their closer when they were on a Wild Card run, they promoted a former DFA’ed pitcher they were using as a set-up guy, and he pitched better than the traded closer had.
Hummmm….
Nothing screams Ugly American more than someone in the USA bragging that his league’s winner is the so-called “world champion”.
Besides MM who fell into Bloom’s lap what REAL TOP prospect has Bloom added since he arrived?
Excellent overview, Mark. Two minor corrections: Although the mutual option with Pham was originally reported as $6MM, that has been corrected in several places to the actual amount $12MM. And I’ve been seeing $232MM and $233MM in different places for the 2023 first CBT level. The MLB website’s glossary entry for Competitive Balance Tax has $233MM. Cot’s Sox contracts has $232. I didn’t realize this was the object of controversy.
Mike Lupica, NYC tabloid writer turned specialist in alternative facts, thinks it would be fun if the Red Sox made a run for Aaron Judge. Nothing would scream of desperation more than a last-place ballclub spending recklessly so they can still pay luxury tax next summer.
They have gone from last to first numerous times over the past few years.
You think signing the MVP is insane eh?
Honestly the best thing that could happen to the Sox is Sale opting out (though i know there is zero chance of that happening)
I don’t know what fixes the Red Sox but they need a bat in the OF and at least two starting pitchers. I would keep Wacha but not on anything more than a 2 year contract
Rsox;
You’re a bright poster. But 2 things you might want think about to break the chain on in order to understand winning in today’s MLB:
1. Throw the depth chart out. Players roles are forever changing during the season. Only a small percentage have a role and keep it all year.
2. Flexibility is a prerequisite to winning. Primarily with players and cash on hand.
We don’t expect much so we won’t be disappointed.
The BoSox don’t look bad. They have Chris Sale, Nick Pavetta and a full RH pen. The IF looks good especially if Kiki plays 2B. I don’t like any of their FA this year, not even Xander. IMO, the Red Sox need the following:
2 younger SP.
1 LH RP. Better than Strahm.
LH hitting RF.
Boy are you optimistic! Sale has not pitched consistently since 2018 and he still missed months of the second half of the season. Pivetta is inconsistent and is a 4th starter at best. Hill who is 43 years old and Wacha are free agents. They need two solid starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, one a closer, a first baseman not named Dalbac who cannot hit and should not be allowed anywhere near a baseball diamond. They should never have let Schwarber go, boy those 46 homeruns would have helped this year. Do you like anointing Casas as a starting player? That is a lot of pressure on a rookie.
The Story signing was a panic signing by Bloom because he did nothing in the offseason. They need a left fielder, they should have hung into Renfroe and not traded for JBJ who cannot hit either. They have to sign Boggarts and Devers.
Do you have faith in Bloom to fix the mess that he made? I don’t and think he is a Dumpster Diving GM who looks for diamonds in the rough and cheap contracts. I think he is in way over his head and in Tampa he rode on the shirttails of Friedman who went to the Dodgers.
WOW–you nailed it 100% with this post !!!
Apparently the AL East teams burned up all their assets beating on the Red Sox. The Rays and Jays are done and if the Yankees lose, it will be one and done for all three teams. So easy on the “powerful” division mantra. That said, the Red Sox were a major disappointment.
I think a lot of their woes were the rotation injuries and the lack of clear bullpen roles, especially closer. But even there, injuries hampered the ability to establish those roles.
The first order of business in clear to everyone. I would also not object to bringing back pitchers who were generally effective on reasonable terms. It’s time to cut the underperforming bats and maybe make a trade or two with those guys while they’re still young enough to have value.
All I really care about right now is the Guardians.
The most bizzaro factoid ever is Minnesota releasing Big Papi after the 2002 season. BP was 20% better than the league average that season! He slugged .500! And the Twins didn’t even trade him! It still blows my mind 20 years later!
Agreed. His OPS was .839 and he was improving every year.
^^^never heard of Badwell for Andersen.
Just saw the AL gold glove candidates:
JBJ for Right Field
Benintendi for Left Field
No Devers at 3B
Bogaerts at SS
No Story at 2B
No Hosmer at 1B
The NL gold glove candidates:
Mookie for Right FIeld
KeBryan Hayes at 3B (Boston should trade for him)
Since Bloom arrived Boston got rid of 3 GG finalists in 2023 which explains why the defense was ranked so badly even with Devers having his best year which is still below league average. The lone potential award winner is next on Bloom’s list of guys he’s not willing to play or keep on the team.
Remember when pitching and defense won championships?
Maybe Bloom should study history a bit more before he uses the huge available payroll to fill the 2023 roster!!
Go get deGrom & Judge…sign & play Arroyo for the next 5 years at 5yr, 15 million the guy is 1000% errorless ball at 2b, can cover all infield positions or corner outfield & DH…Sox are underplaying this guy! He is a stud and needs 500+ ABs!
Bloom said he would “explore” extending Devers, which is code for “we’re not going to sign him, but want to make it look like we wanted to.” And if that is, in fact, the case, then it would be stupid not to trade him. I think they should look for solid, controllable number three starter from another club, along with a few prospects. Then they should sign Nolan Arenado to a three- or four-year deal to play third.
Devers will be 26 years old tomorrow. Arenado will be 32 next April. You’d rather spend for Arenado than for Devers?
Absolutely!!!. Arenado is a winner and has been his whole life. Arenado is an elite fielder and Devers can’t field. Arenado is a great bat that would do well in Fenway and Devers is at best a comparable bat. Arenado has intensity and plays as part of a team and Devers plays for himself. Sign Arenado to a shorter term contract at a higher pay rate since he is elite at hitting and fielding.
The team has fallen off so far that it is going to take at least 6 star players to get them competitive with teams like the Astros and Blue Jays. Right now their stars are not signed. They need Bogaerts and Story to have an elite infield. They need to upgrade all outfield positions. They need to upgrade their pitching and hope Sale can come back in 2023 or cut ties with him. They need a catcher at least as good as Vazquez..
There is no reason to think this can happen since Bloom created the mess. Drafting a couple of kids and waiting a half decade for them to get good enough to lead a team to victory is not a valid strategy for a big market team like Boston. TB does things like that not Boston. Fans, thanks to the years between 2003 and 2019 are accustomed to winning after the long drought.
Creating another long drought seemed like an odd strategy when Bloom was hired and got rid of Mookie and Price. Well, the drought is now 3 years old and for others who lived through major portions of the 86 year drought, it starts with a couple of bad years and avalanches into decades. Fans need to voice their concern before it’s 10 years and counting.