After a deep rebuild that featured last-place finishes in each of the past four full seasons, the Orioles showed signs of optimism in 2022. Many of their prospects reached the majors and played well, allowing the club to flirt with postseason contention and finish above .500 for the first time since 2016. GM Mike Elias has teased that the coming offseason will involve a higher payroll, but just how aggressive will they be?
Guaranteed Contracts
- John Means, LHP: $2.975MM through 2023 (arbitration-eligible for one year thereafter)
Option Decisions
- Jordan Lyles, RHP: $11MM club option with $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Anthony Santander (4.162): $7.5MM
- Cam Gallagher (4.073): $1MM
- Austin Voth (3.127): $2MM
- Cedric Mullins (3.078): $4.4MM
- Austin Hays (3.057): $3.1MM
- Dillon Tate (3.048): $1.5MM
- Jorge Mateo (3.000): $1.8MM
- Non-tender candidate: Gallagher
Free Agents
- Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor, Jesús Aguilar, Brett Phillips, Denyi Reyes, Anthony Castro, Richie Martin, Travis Lakins Sr.
The Orioles have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball in recent years, with few people expecting anything different going into 2022. But many of the club’s young players either made strong debuts or took steps forward, leading the team to a respectable season for the first time in recent memory. They stayed in the Wild Card race until the final week of the season and actually finished with a winning record for the first time since 2016.
What that means going forward is an open question that will be answered in the months to come. General manager Mike Elias was hired after the 2018 season, meaning we have no template for what it looks like when he decides to be aggressive. The club hasn’t given a multi-year contract to a free agent since Alex Cobb’s four-year deal in March 2018, before Elias was hired.
Back in August, Elias said that the O’s will “significantly escalate the payroll,” though he could mean different things by that. The highest Opening Day payroll the Orioles have ever had was the $164MM of 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though it’s been steadily declining since then. This year’s mark was just under $44MM, the lowest in the league. It would be possible for the payroll to escalate “significantly” while still remaining low compared to the other 29 clubs. But if they want to be truly aggressive, there’s little standing in their way. They have no long-term commitments whatsoever, with Means the only player on the books for 2023 and literally no one guaranteed for 2024.
If they do decide to make a sizeable commitment to a free agent, it would make the most sense for it to be a pitcher since the position player core is in decent shape. Behind the plate, Adley Rutschman made good on his top prospect status with an excellent rookie season. In 113 games, he hit .254/.362/.445 for a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter. That would be impressive work for any batter, but it’s especially impressive for a catcher, and a rookie at that. He also got good grades from defensive metrics, allowing him to produce 5.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and cementing himself as the catcher of the future.
A Spring Training injury delayed his debut until May, meaning he’s currently short of one year of MLB service time. However, there’s a provision in the new collective bargaining agreement that gives a full year of service to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting. Rutschman will most likely finish second behind Julio Rodríguez, meaning he would have five years of club control remaining before hitting the six-year mark. That should keep Rutschman in Baltimore through at least 2027, though an extension could always lengthen the relationship and would be one way of spending aggressively.
With Rutschman entrenched for years to come, the O’s will only have to think about a backup and depth options. Robinson Chirinos got into 67 games in 2022 but is headed to free agency. In terms of in-house options, they added Anthony Bemboom to the 40-man roster just a few weeks ago to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Then there are waiver claims Cam Gallagher, Mark Kolozsvary and Aramis Garcia. If the O’s want to supplement that group, they’d be a candidate for a veteran signing, such as bringing back Chirinos or someone like Sandy León, though they could also ride with the many options they already have.
At first base, the club traded away Trey Mancini at the deadline, leaving the position in the hands of Ryan Mountcastle. His power took a step back this year, hitting just 22 home runs compared to 33 last year. Some of that is surely due to the club pushing back the left field wall, though Mountcastle was still above-average at the plate overall. His .250/.305/.423 batting line this year adds up to a wRC+ of 106, or 6% above league average. That’s fairly middle-of-the-pack production from the first base slot, meaning it’s a theoretical area they could look to upgrade. However, Mountcastle is still young, turning 26 in February, and has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. He’ll likely get some time to find another gear. Jesús Aguilar, who was with the club for September and October, is reaching free agency, meaning there’s room for a backup/bench bat. Re-signing Aguilar would make some sense, though guys like Colin Moran will also be available.
The rest of the infield has some fluidity to it, thanks to the versatility of Gunnar Henderson. The club’s other top prospect, he debuted later in the season and hit .259/.348/.440 for a wRC+ of 125 in 34 games. He primarily lined up at third base in that time, though also saw some action at shortstop and second base. Jorge Mateo was the club’s primary shortstop this year, hitting at a below-average rate but still proving to be plenty useful due to his speed and defense. His .221/.267/.379 batting line only amounted to an 82 wRC+, but he also stole 35 bases and was unanimously praised by advanced defensive metrics. With Rougned Odor reaching free agency, second base is up for grabs, though there are internal options. Ramón Urías hit .248/.305/.414 for a wRC+ of 104 while playing second, third and short. Terrin Vavra spent some time at the keystone but also in the outfield.
Many people have opined that the O’s should target one of the big four free agent shortstops this winter (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), given their lack of payroll commitments and ability to shuffle their current infielders around. While that level of aggressiveness would certainly be exciting, there are reasons to suspect they will dedicate their resources elsewhere. Joseph Ortiz, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday are all infielders and considered to be among the top 100 prospects in the game by FanGraphs, while Baseball America has Holliday and Jordan Westburg on their list. Holliday is just 18 and still years away from the majors, but Ortiz and Westburg both reached Triple-A in 2022, with Mayo getting as high as Double-A. The O’s might want a path available for these players to force their way into the big league picture throughout 2023.
The outfield also saw a prospect debut this year, as Kyle Stowers came up and hit .253/.306/.418 for a wRC+ of 107 in 34 games. He should slot next to Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as the club’s regular outfield mix. Anthony Santander will also be around, though he has the least defensive acumen of the group and could potentially see significant time as the designated hitter. Just like on the infield, there are future reinforcements coming on the grass. Colton Cowser is considered to be one of the top 100 prospects in the sport by each of FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He got as high as Triple-A in 2022 and will likely make his MLB debut in 2023.
With lots of depth on the position player side of things, the O’s should have plenty of opportunities on the trade market. Perhaps they believe in Cowser enough to explore a trade of Hays, opening up the outfield picture a bit. With a bevy of infield prospects on the way, maybe they feel they can make a move there. Trading away someone at the big league level like Mateo or Urías is a possibility. But they could also trade away one of their many prospects for immediate help.
Turning to the pitching staff, there’s less certainty. Seven different pitchers got into double digits in terms of games started, with a mixed bag of results. Austin Voth and Dean Kremer were the only two of the group to post ERAs under 4.00 while with Baltimore. In both cases, advanced metrics are skeptical of the results, with low BABIPs and high strand rates helping them to minimize the damage. Jordan Lyles, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Spenser Watkins were each between 4.00 and 5.00 in the ERA department, with none of them getting strikeouts at an above-average rate. Bruce Zimmermann’s ERA came in at 5.99. Some of these guys are still young and getting their feet wet, which means they will continue to get chances going forward. But none of them were so strong in 2022 that they should be guaranteed a rotation spot at this point. There should be plenty of room for free agent additions here, even with top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the cusp of entering the picture. John Means should be a factor at some point in 2023, but it will depend on how he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April of this year.
The types of free agents that they target will depend on exactly how significant the payroll increase will actually be. The top of the market will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón. It would certainly be surprising to see the O’s shopping in that aisle, though there’s no real reason they couldn’t do it. If they aren’t willing to be quite that aggressive, they could look to Kodai Senga, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Mike Clevinger and Nathan Eovaldi as solid middle-of-the-rotation options. If they decide to stick with one-year deals, they will likely be looking at guys like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies and others of that ilk. It could go in many different ways, but the O’s have virtually no payroll commitments and plenty of room in the rotation. The big question will be how bold they want to be.
Turning to the bullpen, this was a strength for the O’s this season. The club’s relievers posted a collective 3.49 ERA this year, ninth-best among MLB teams, even though they traded Jorge López to the Twins at the deadline. Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez and Bryan Baker were some of the relievers to show promising results. However, reliever performance is notoriously volatile and the O’s don’t really have a veteran presence in the ’pen. Dillon Tate, who turns 29 in May and has just over three years of service time, is the old hand of the crew. It would be plenty sensible for the club to add a guy who’s been around for a bit, both for on-field performance and for mentoring capabilities. Players like Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Tommy Kahnle shouldn’t cost too much but would fit nicely, though there’s also nothing really stopping the O’s from splurging on Edwin Díaz or Kenley Jansen.
Ultimately, the O’s are a grand unknown until we see what Elias has in mind. Since taking over, he’s been extremely conservative with spending on the big league roster, avoiding all multi-year deals while focusing on acquiring and developing prospects. It seems like now is a good time to make a shift and start focusing on the major league level, but we don’t have a barometer for what that will look like. They still have many exciting prospects on the way, meaning they could continue with modest deals while waiting for the farm to continue producing, or they could use that prospect stockpile for a bold trade. But with a wide open future payroll and plenty of young talent, the O’s could be big players in free agency or the trade market or both, if they want to be.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held an Orioles-centric chat on 10-21-22. Click here to view a transcript of that discussion.
Firsty ….LOL
Also, I want to see what the Orioles do (action) by saying they will increase payroll!!!
Quite frankly, none of the free agents this season really send me, if they are any good, they are older than I would like to see,.
If it was me, I’d definitely check in on the SS’s, especially the versatile Turner, but ultimately I expect them the market to go higher than I’d want to go.
I would definitely be looking at all the 2nd tier starting pitchers, and push hard for a closer.
jakec77;
Why SS’s?
They have 4.
They have a ton of SS talent that’s almost ready. The money would be better spent on pitching. Unless they could sign a top SS on a 1 year prove it deal which would be harder to do since they moved the LF wall out.
Extending Rutschman seems to be a good use of the payroll flexibility. 12/$210m (Julio Rodriguez) seems at the upper end of the contract comp set given the beatings catchers take. and Rutschman being 2 years older. 8/$150m might get it done.
I feel ya TheRealMilo! What about Mullins? Top defender had off year at the plate. Extend him now on the cheap?
The O’s should try to lock up Gunnar Henderson as well. Depending on what the O’s payroll budget is for next year, maybe going after a 1 or 2 year with a high AAV for a Verlander to help develop their young SP (Rodriguez and Hall), while not handcuffing their budget for the long-term.. Not sure that the O’s would do all of these ideas. IMO, locking up Adley and Gunnar should be high on their agenda this offseason.
The O’s should follow the model the Braves have done recently. Sign the young talent to team friendly contracts if they can. Mateo, Adley, Cedric, Henderson (maybe next year), and Mountcastle
I definitely think the O’s will try to extend Mullins this offseason. Adley might rate as the top priority but I’d peg Mullins as the more likely of the two to extend this offseason.
Adley went 1/1 in the ‘19 draft so he’s not hurting for money and might want to afford himself the opportunity to play out a full season and really drive up his value. Maybe an all-star and a serious MVP push. J-Rod is a decent comp but one consideration is that J-Rod signed as an Int’l FA for $1.75M in 2017 so he likely had a bit more urgency to lock in a payday than Adley would have right now.
Mullins on the other hand was a 13th rounder who had a few rough, up and down years in ‘18 and ‘19 before sticking as a decent regular in the shortened season and then really coming into form last year. He would be 31 going into free agency with a high floor skill-set but one that is bound to fade a bit with age and could possibly impact the quality of offers he’d get. I’d think he’d have interest in an extension especially if it gives him a nice signing bonus…some “set down roots” money on a team where he’s already a fan favorite. The O’s benefit by showing the fan base they’re committed to being competitive and retaining a good, popular player they developed. Something in the 5yr $65-$75M range might get it done and work out well for both sides.
@Waymann; like the 5 year term. Two questions.
1. What’s “set down roots” money?
2. Did you base the 65-75 on some comps? I’m drawing blanks here.
1.)By that, I mean his first real big payday. He signed for a smaller bonus in the draft and has been making pre-arb money since then. A nice signing bonus gives him security and the money to make long term plans in the area (or “set down roots”, as the saying goes).
2.)Not a lot of great comps in this years class but I used Teoscar Hernandez as a rough guide. Similar overall career value…1 AS appearance for both…Teoscar is more “bat first” and has two silver slugger awards but Mullins is well-rounded and played in almost every game the past few years. Teoscar’s arb seasons cost roughly $30M (4, 10, and 14 per MLBTR’s projection for next year) so I got to my projection by adding that and another $17.5-$22.5M/year on what would be the two free agency seasons.
In regards to 1.; fun!
2. thanks for the insight on your valuation approach. I dig the logic. Interesting. Thank you.
Cheers!
@Waymann Good points. I think re-signing some of the core players will also send messages to FA’s that the Orioles are willing to spend, possibly making Baltimore a more attractive destination than in y ears past.
I would sign on or two starters. Behind Grayson and hall (who might be a reliever anyway with his lack of command) the orioles don’t have much high end pitching talent in the system and their big league pitching has been ok, but they are all low K guys who might regress.
Position players they are fine and have a lot of guys coming up but they could use a corner of or 1b/DH slugger type.
If they want to compete again next year they will need a few of the rookies breaking out right away, otherwise I think they are still a 500 team with upside but still not quite enough yet.
Unless one of the shortstops falls into their lap (like Correa to the Twins last year), they can afford to go after sluggers that don’t really play defense. Michael Brantley and JD martinez come to mind.
Maybe they could be a dark horse for Arenado? They can easily outbid the Cardinals and they could use a guy like him in the middle of that lineup occupying a corner spot. They’ll find time for Urias elsewhere
If Arenando does opt out, I’d love to sign him. If you add someone like him, I imagine you use Urias or Mateo as big league capital in a deal for pitching. I have to imagine Gunnar goes to SS in that situation and Westburg is dealt.
The Brewers, Marlins and Dodgers might be worth talking to about pitching. The Brewers and Marlins have starting pitching depth, but have lineup issues (Marlins) and FA nearing on multiple ace type pitchers (Brewers). The Dodgers have 3 MLB top 50ish prospects ready at AAA (Pepiot, Miller and Stone) and might see value in a trade for a MLB ready CF or an exchange for a prospect who could play middle infield.
I agree with the Brewers and Orioles being possible trade partners. Either one of Woodruff or Burnes goes to Baltimore for some of their young position players. Orioles can then extend whichever Brewers pitcher they acquire while the Brewers can go on a quick retooling phase stockpiling on young controllable players and prospects (mostly hitters). Orioles get a front line starter for the next few years and the Brewers get some long term offensive help that they’ve lacked during their recent playoff run.
Do you think Aramis Garcia and Jake Cave will be tendered? Because of recent claims, they don’t seem to be included in the arbitration decisions when they should.
Starting pitching. Forget the shortstop market.
Agreed, although maybe add a short term FA first baseman and an outfielder depending on trade opportunities for the likes of Mountcastle, Mullins, Santander and Hays.. Would liove to see the O’s trade with the Marlins for pitching, which may require them to part with any one or two of those guys.
I can see the O’s trading Santander and Hays for pitching prospects. I know that is a lot of talent being subtracted however there is a lot of it coming through the system right now both in the outfield and infield.
Bobby Mongan;
They need some POF’s that hit RH.
They already have too many LF hitting OF’s and their best OF prospects are also RH. Santander (switch hitter) and Hays re their only 2 RH hitting OF’s.
@Samuel – Check your source.
Stowers hits lefty if he’s still considered a prospect. If not, he’s not accounted for in your list of OF players.
Other notable LHH OF prospects in the O’s org: Cowser, Kjerstad, Beavers, Trimble is switch. Only Fabian and Mayo hit righty (and Mayo may not be an OFer, though it seems likely he is).
5 out of 7 of our top OFers in our top 20-30 prospects hit lefty.
Samuel it is also 2/3’s of starting OF that hits RH. So I would not consider them short on either. And Santander although a switch hitter is right handed.
“”and their best OF prospects are also RH”…
Brian 38 & Tigers3232;
Typed it wrong. Should have been LH.
The fact is that they only have 2 OF’s that hit RH on the 26 man roster and the high minors. And for the record – Santander hits poorly RH.
The O’s moved the LF wall back so far that their home park favors LH hitters. But they do have to play on the road, and at the rate they’re going teams will be holding their LH pitchers in wait for the O’s in coming series’. Fact is that Rushman also hits poorly RH. So it’s not just the LH OF’s that have the O’s overloaded for the near future.
@Samuel, .293 with 11 HRs is hitting poorly? He hits with a bit less power right handed but is a more consistent hitter from that side of the plate.
Their future may be the brightest in baseball. Sure I said that last year, but this time I mean it.
Unconfirmed Friend;
Which one?
Last I saw / heard in August both switch hitters were better LH. Maybe one went on a tear.
Nevertheless, the O’s could use another RH bat, and it seems silly to trade one at this point.
Let Lyles go
Me personally, I’m a little hesitant to consider the O’s “contenders”. They kind of remind me a little too much of the Tigers in 2021, they out played their peripherals.
I know oriole fans would be frustrated, but I would strongly be looking at one more rebuilding year, if Means won’t sign an extension, I’d trade him. Same with Santander. Then I would look to augment their production with some free agent signings outside the top tier, maybe Abreu to DH, perhaps someone like Clevinger or similar.
I think shopping in the upper echelons would put too much pressure on prospects development vs grabbing some veterans and making small but meaningful improvements keeps the pressure off while still feeling like the front office believes they can win.
Also, by trading some soon to be free agents, you thicken that farm system which allows for your window to stay open just a little while longer. Especially when you play the AL East.
I echo your feelings mostly; I don’t think that it’s quite time to bloat the payroll over $100mil or significantly deal from the prospect war chest. I’m open to trading from the MLB roster, but not solely for prospects. If Santander or Hays help you get a starter with 2+ years of control without dealing from your top shelf of prospects I’m good with that.
I do think Trading Means is a mistake. He’s not going to build up enough value this season to be worth dealing when you hope to be adding at the deadline. He’s essentially a deadline add that doesn’t cost you anything.
My offseason goals are 2SPs, one a mid rotation guy, (Bassitt or Senga are my preference) then maybe a bullpen guy, utility/bench bat and a backup catcher. Probably adds $30 Mil to the payroll but nothing earth shattering and all deals will be over before 2027.
Pitching pitching pitching. Plus Sign Elias buddy Correa and away you go. Give me a healthy Means and Os good for this year. Move Mateo to second. Urias get AB too as utility. O’s have more depth than most realize.
Edp007;
Mateo is a better defensive SS that any of the FA SS’s. He should get the GG for 2022 but won’t.
I just want an all out attempt for Ohtani next year. He’s an ace and a power bat, both of which the Orioles could use.
Mullins
Shohei
Adley
Gunnar
Mounty
Westburg
Hays
Cowser
Mateo
Ohtani
Grayson
Means
Wells
Someone like Bassit or Taillon/trade Santander for a starter
Would love to see them go after deGrom or a true ace in free agency. They need to go all in on starters like Houston did.
Nice to have offseason hOpe again. There is definitely prospect talent in the minors, but if they trade they should trade for controllable young MLB talent, not someone on an a one year deal. I hope they find the right complement to the bench, a mentoring type, if they bring in a veteran. I really hope that the franchise has turned the corner.
The Orioles have been really good at saying things and pretty terrible at actually following through with what they say. Before anyone falls all over themselves, let’s look at how they actually spend the money.
You can cross off any top tier free agent. The Orioles aren’t doing that. The secondary tier of pitching is going to go higher than they think the market should have been, so they’ll get the cheapest of that group if any.
This team has far too many holes for it to be a contender.
Spend the money on an ace while the young talent is cheap and controllable. Spend another year figuring out which talent is going to stick in the majors and trade the other pieces for more pitching. Most importantly lock up adley to an extension asap. Don’t make the same mistake they made with Machado.
Bring Mancini back and trade Santander for bullpen help.