The Diamondbacks had a respectable second half, but there’s still a notable gap between them and the National League’s postseason contenders. Arizona seems to be on the upswing after a brutal three-year stretch. They’ve broken in a number of promising young players in the past couple years. Supplementing that emerging core with a better bullpen and a reliable starting pitcher will be offseason priorities.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ketel Marte, 2B: $76MM through 2027 (including buyout of 2028 club option)
- Madison Bumgarner, LHP: $37MM through 2024
- Merrill Kelly, RHP: $18MM through 2024
- Nick Ahmed, SS: $10.375MM through 2023
- Mark Melancon, RHP: $8MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 mutual option)
Additional Financial Commitments
- $250K buyout on mutual option for Zach Davies
- $250K buyout on $4MM mutual option for Ian Kennedy
Total 2023 commitments: $59.975MM
Total future commitments: $149.875MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players
- Zac Gallen
- Christian Walker
- Carson Kelly
- Daulton Varsho
- Josh Rojas
- Caleb Smith
- Jordan Luplow
- Keynan Middleton
- Reyes Moronta
- Non-tender candidates: Kelly, Smith, Luplow, Middleton, Moronta
Free Agents
- Davies, Kennedy
It has been a tough few seasons for the Diamondbacks, who followed up consecutive last-place division finishes with the #4 standing in the NL West. They’re obviously not yet a complete roster, but they head into the offseason coming off their most encouraging few months since the end of the 2019 season. A dismal first half buried the D-Backs in the standings yet again, but they’ve played reasonably well coming out of the All-Star Break. They finished two games under .500 in the unofficial second half but outscored opponents by 15 runs since the Break. That was enough for the Diamondbacks to exercise their option on skipper Torey Lovullo, keeping him around for a seventh season.
Underperforming their run differential was a problem all year. Arizona finished with a 74-88 record, but their “expected” record based on their run differential checked in at 77-85. Only four teams (Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers and Twins) underperformed that mark by more, with Arizona’s 17-29 record in one-run contests a major factor. That gets partially at the team’s lack of offense late in close games, which the front office can expect to turn around through some combination of better luck and more high-leverage experience for their number of young hitters. Yet the inability to win close games also hints at the biggest flaw on the roster: the bullpen.
On the heels of their nightmarish 52-win 2021 season, the front office set out to address a relief unit that had allowed more than five earned runs per nine innings. Veterans Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy were brought in via free agency, while the club aggressively leveraged their high waiver priority to cycle through late-game arms (e.g. Kyle Nelson, Paul Fry, Reyes Moronta) who’d shown any kind of promise in the past. Almost nothing worked as planned, and the Snakes again ran out one of the sport’s worst relief groups. Arizona’s bullpen ranked 25th in ERA (4.58), 28th in strikeout/walk rate differential (10.5 percentage points) and tied for the 8th-most blown leads (27).
Fixing the bullpen again has to be an offseason priority. Kennedy had a 5.36 ERA and will be head back to free agency after the team declines its end of a mutual option. Melancon is due $6MM next year, plus a $2MM buyout on a 2024 mutual option. He’ll be back on the roster as a result, but he posted a 4.66 ERA that ranked as his worst mark in a decade. Long one of the game’s more consistent relievers, the 37-year-old is on the downslope of his career and coming off a third consecutive season with a well below-average swinging-strike rate. He’s still serviceable against right-handed batters but ideally wouldn’t enter 2023 locked into a high-leverage or closer role.
A run at another late-career former star closer could be in the cards. Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are all headed to free agency. None of that group is coming off a vintage season. Kimbrel and Jansen have been effective but not their formerly elite selves; Chapman has simply been below-average. Still, there’s little question that each of Kimbrel and Jansen, at least, would be upgrades in the late innings for Arizona. The D-Backs aren’t going to push towards nine figures to land Edwin Díaz, but a one-year salary in the $10MM range for a former star to solidify the ninth inning could be palatable.
Even if the Snakes bring in an established closer, they’ll probably look for another middle-innings arm as well. Adding a right-hander would be ideal, as Lovullo hasn’t had many reliable options from that side. Arizona only has two returning relievers who posted an above-average strikeout rate. One, southpaw Joe Mantiply, broke out with an All-Star season and is a lock to assume a late-innings role next year. The other, right-hander Kevin Ginkel, cleared waivers last winter and only made it back to the big leagues in August. A solid final two months should earn him a spot on next year’s roster, but he shouldn’t be guaranteed high-leverage innings after posting a 6.50 ERA from 2020-21. Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino and David Phelps are veteran righties coming off quality seasons and heading to free agency.
There should be financial room for the front office to address the relief corps. Arizona has just under $60MM committed to next season’s books. That doesn’t include arbitration estimates, but it’s not an overwhelming class. Christian Walker, Zac Gallen, Josh Rojas and Daulton Varsho are locks to be tendered contracts, but none is building off a huge platform salary. Walker made $2.6MM this year and will probably see a bump into the $5-6MM range. Gallen, Rojas and Varsho (the latter two of whom are likely to qualify for early arbitration as Super Two players) are arbitration-eligible for the first time. Gallen will likely be capped around the $4MM mark, while Rojas and Varsho will make a couple million dollars each. Keeping backstop Carson Kelly, who’s a potential non-tender candidate but seems likelier to stick around, would tack on another $5MM or so. Even if everyone in that group returns, Arizona’s only looking at roughly $80MM in commitments before building out the roster.
The Diamondbacks entered 2022 with a payroll just under $91MM, and they’ve pushed as high as the $130MM range in the past. Jumping back to franchise-record heights set before the shortened 2020 campaign seems unlikely, since owner Ken Kendrick has curtailed spending over the last two years. Nearing or exceeding $100MM could be viable, though, leaving the front office some opportunity.
Aside from the bullpen, the biggest question mark seems to be the back of the starting staff. Gallen has cemented himself as one of the sport’s elite arms, and he’ll front next year’s rotation. Behind him is Merrill Kelly, who posted a 3.37 ERA over 33 starts after signing a two-year extension during Spring Training. Kelly may not repeat quite that level of effectiveness next year, but he’s at least a solid mid-rotation arm. Were he slated to hit free agency this winter, the right-hander would certainly have topped the $18MM he received from the D-Backs in April. Arizona bet on Kelly to bounce back from a somewhat disappointing 4.44 ERA last season, and he’s rewarded the organization’s faith.
The final three spots in the rotation are open questions. Madison Bumgarner probably gets another crack thanks to his contract. Arizona’s five-year, $85MM free agent investment during the 2019-20 offseason has proven disastrous, with Bumgarner posting a 4.67 ERA or worse in the first three seasons of the deal. His days as an ace and postseason hero for the Giants are distant in the rearview, and his production in the desert has been that of a 5th/6th depth starter rather than the rotation stabilizer the club envisioned.
While Arizona would certainly welcome the opportunity to shed the final two years and $37MM on Bumgarner’s deal, it’s hard to see that happening. Perhaps the front office can orchestrate a swap of unfavorable contracts, but Bumgarner’s limited no-trade clause further complicates an already unlikely trade scenario. The far likelier outcome is he’ll remain on the roster and in the rotation heading into next season.
The remaining spots could give some of the club’s younger arms an opportunity to take steps forward. Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Tommy Henry all debuted this year and could compete for rotation spots in Spring Training. Nelson and Jameson are both well-regarded prospects who’ve impressed in their limited big league action. Each had a tougher time in an extremely hitter-friendly Triple-A environment, and their respective MLB bodies of work aren’t yet robust enough the D-Backs will lock either into an Opening Day rotation job. They’ve at least put themselves on the radar, reducing the need to give starts to the likes of Humberto Castellanos (who’ll miss most of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Tyler Gilbert.
Arizona’s farm system is rife with upper-level arms, and youngsters like Brandon Pfaadt and Blake Walston could factor into the mix as well. Pfaadt was excellent in ten Triple-A starts and could compete for a big league job out of camp. Walston probably starts next year in Triple-A but may earn a midseason look.
While the organization and its fanbase is certainly excited about the long-term potential of most of those arms, the Snakes still look likely to seek out shorter-term rotation fits this winter. Not all of Nelson, Jameson, Pfaadt and Walston will develop into mid-rotation caliber starters. Injuries and simple underperformance will set back some of that group. Even if two of the four hit the ground running and join Gallen and Kelly in the rotation, an outside addition or two could help manage the younger pitchers’ innings, safeguard against injury and perhaps eventually bump Bumgarner from the starting five.
It’d be a surprise to see Arizona make a long-term free agent investment considering the number of upper minors arms they have. It’s more likely they’d dip into the lower-tiers of free agency to add a stable back-end starter, similar to last winter’s signing of Zach Davies. Hurlers like Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles (if the Orioles buy out his club option), Johnny Cueto or Michael Lorenzen could fit the bill.
If the D-Backs wanted to act more divisively in pursuit of an upgrade, packaging some of their young talent together for an impact trade piece shouldn’t be out of the question. Arizona has drafted highly in recent years, adding high-end prospects like Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones to an already solid system. Even if those two are off limits in discussions, the Snakes’ upper level surplus of arms and outfielders (more on that in a bit) could allow them to push in their chips this winter. The Marlins are expected to make Pablo López available for offensive help. The Astros could deal from their rotation surplus, and Arizona pitching coach Brent Strom is familiar with the likes of Luis Garcia and José Urquidy from his time in Houston. Those are speculative possibilities, but Arizona’s at least a dark-horse candidate for that kind of trade.
Such a move wouldn’t have to be limited to the rotation, of course. Much of the D-Backs’ position player group is taking shape internally, but there’s still a chance to make a run at a good player with multiple seasons of club control. The A’s are widely expected to shop catcher Sean Murphy, who has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. If the D-Backs do part with Carson Kelly after a second straight below-average season, a pursuit of Murphy makes sense. He’s an immense offensive upgrade over Kelly, and his excellent defensive reputation would dovetail nicely with the Diamondbacks’ upcoming pitching prospects.
If Arizona eschews external catching additions and brings Kelly back, he’d be in line for the lion’s share of playing time. José Herrera didn’t lay claim to the backup job, so a low-cost veteran complement in free agency makes sense. The right side of the infield is set with Walker and Ketel Marte. Arizona stuck with Walker after a rough 2021 campaign. They were rewarded with a 36-homer showing, paired with Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The D-Backs were open to offers on Walker at the trade deadline but didn’t move him. They’ll probably field some calls this winter, but it’ll tough for other teams to pry away his final two seasons of arbitration control.
Marte has been a frequent target in trade rumors for years, but Arizona committed to him as a franchise player with a five-year extension this spring. He didn’t have a great 2022 campaign, hitting .240/.321/.407 over 558 plate appearances with below-average defense at second base. Pedestrian season aside, Marte still brings a rare combination of contact skills and plus exit velocities. At some point down the line, the front office may think about reducing his time in the middle infield given his defensive limitations, but he’ll continue to play the majority of his reps at the keystone in 2023.
The left side of the infield is far less settled. Third base has been a revolving door for the past couple seasons. Arizona acquired Emmanuel Rivera from the Royals for Luke Weaver at the trade deadline and gave him a fair bit of run in the second half. Rivera hit .227/.304/.424 with plus defensive marks and will be in the mix at third, but he may be a better fit in a utility capacity.
That’s also true of Rojas, who split his time between second and third base and designated hitter. He’s a solid left-handed bat with excellent plate discipline and good bat-to-ball skills. Rojas is a productive hitter, but he’s not a great defender anywhere. Rather than pencil him in as an everyday third baseman, the D-Backs are likelier to continue to deploy him as a multi-positional option off the bench, living with poor defense at various positions to plug him into the lineup on a more or less everyday basis.
Between Rivera and Rojas, the Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to consider third base a true position of need. With a weak free agent class there, they may not end up addressing it at all. Still, neither Rivera nor Rojas absolutely forecloses the possibility of an upgrade, and the front office figures to at least gauge the trade and non-tender markets for potential fits.
Shortstop, meanwhile, looks like the biggest position player hole on the depth chart. Defensive stalwart Nick Ahmed is under contract for more than $10MM next season, but he only played in 17 games this year before undergoing shoulder surgery. Ahmed played more frequently in 2021 but didn’t hit well. The shoulder issues could’ve played a role in that subpar production, but he’s been a below-average offensive player in every season of his career. With Ahmed out, Arizona gave extended run to rookie Geraldo Perdomo. The 22-year-old looked overmatched, posting a .195/.285/.262 mark across 500 plate appearances.
Relying on Ahmed and Perdomo again would be suboptimal, although it’s fair to wonder if the front office will be able to find an upgrade. A run at any of the top four free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson) isn’t likely to be in the cards for financial reasons. There’s a notable drop-off to Elvis Andrus and José Iglesias beyond that group. Turning to the trade market, Amed Rosario is among the names who could be made available, as the Guardians thread a tight financial needle.
In contrast to shortstop, the D-Backs enter the offseason with an arguable surplus of outfield talent. Top prospect Corbin Carroll reached the majors in late August and hit the ground running. He’ll play every day in either left or center field, while Varsho will be a regular at another outfield spot. Formerly a catcher/outfielder hybrid, Varsho seems to have landed full-time in the grass at this stage of his career. That’s in large part because defensive metrics have viewed him as an elite gloveman in right field (and a plus in center).
Meanwhile, second-year player Jake McCarthy broke out with a .283/.342/.427 showing with 23 stolen bases over 354 plate appearances this season. McCarthy was never the caliber of prospect Carroll or Varsho were, but he looks deserving of everyday run himself. A slightly below-average exit velocity and contact rate raise some questions about how sustainable this year’s performance may be, but he’s capable of covering all three outfield spots and has performed against left-handed and right-handed pitchers alike. At the very least, he looks like a high-end fourth outfielder, and he’s earned an opportunity to demonstrate he’s more than that.
Carroll, Varsho and McCarthy give the Snakes a trio of potential everyday outfielders, all of whom can cover center field. That’s before considering the presence of another recent top prospect, Alek Thomas. Thomas is the one Arizona outfielder who didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level, posting a .231/.275/.344 line across 411 plate appearances. He’s raked throughout his time in the minors, though, and he’s yet to turn 23. A gifted defensive center fielder with strong contact skills, Thomas still looks like a possible everyday player.
Arizona could open the season with a McCarthy – Carroll – Varsho outfield while sending Thomas back to Triple-A. Yet the enviable depth could also allow them to explore ways to bolster other areas of the roster via trade. Dealing someone from that group (McCarthy or Thomas, most likely) as part of a package for a controllable starting pitcher or shortstop won’t be off the table. This front office pulled a similarly fascinating trade a few years ago, sending then-prospect Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Miami for Gallen, suggesting they’re at least open to that kind of unconventional swap.
For a team coming off a third straight sub-.500 season, the Diamondbacks could be in for a sneakily fascinating winter. They’ve seen a young core begin to blossom in the majors. General manager Mike Hazen and his staff should have chances to package some of that upper level talent to balance out the roster. With some financial leeway also in place, Arizona could be more aggressive than many might anticipate as they work to establish themselves as legitimate playoff contenders heading into 2023.
I wouldn’t say that McCarthy wasn’t a highly rated prospect. He is a former first round pick (albeit #39)
Yeah fair enough. He’s never been higher than 9th on a ranking of Arizona’s system at Baseball America but you’re right that he didn’t come out of nowhere, which is unintentionally how I made it sound. Reworded that sentence, thanks.
This is an excellent article. Alcantara could’ve been thrown into the mix as well. He’s been excellent defensively.
Madbum should go back to San Francisco and live with the bums on the street.
With all the young, talented starting pitchers coming up, maybe it’s time for Bumgarner to move to the pen? No shortage of need there, since it was obviously the weak spot of the team.
Bumgarner as the closer could be interesting.
It’s difficult to see a scenario where the D’backs become legit contenders next year. They’re buried behind the Dodgers and Padres, and the Giants have the ability to spend large and probably will. For years I said don’t write off the D’backs, but I think we can for the time being at least.
BlueSkies
I agree and disagree with what you wrote. I agree that it takes a stretch of optimism to see the Dbacks as contenders for a Wild Card in 2023, though it might happen..
I disagree that now is the time to write off the Dbacks. The Dbacks successfully competed with the Dodgers and Padres this year…until the bullpen was called in.
The rookie starters (Jameson and Nelson) were very competitive. The rookie hitters we’re finding ways to compete against good pitching.
But the bullpen was awful again this year and gacked up 39 games. Fix the bullpen i.e. Closer problem during the offseason and the Dbacks will be right there with the Dodgers and Padres.
The new schedule next year benefits the Dbacks, Rockies and Giants who won’t have to play the Dodgers and Padres 19 times each next year.
I was wondering just how many games the pen had blown. If they hadn’t, we’d be in the wild card.
So I guess we have to go into the difference between possible and likely. Anything is possible, but that doesn’t make them any more likely. My main point here is the D’backs have to do more than improve, they have to compete with three teams that are able to spend aggressively, and will. Hoping to sneak into the postseason by playing just a little better than .500 ball is not going to cut it in the NLW, because it’s about more than that, it’s about getting past at least two of those other three teams. And that takes more than a bit of tinkering around the edges, it requires a lot of spending, which the D’backs are unwilling or unable to do.
Spending does not always buy solutions. Baumgarner was costly, but didn’t fill the need. Every team has that happen. If SF fails to fill their needs, it won’t matter how much they spend.l
They finished 37 games behind the dodgers and 15 behind the Padres…
And 7 behind the Giants. The D’backs play in a tough neighborhood.
I’d say Dbacks are farther from competitive than this summary indicates (for some reason everyone always overestimates Arizona). The pitching is really a mess outside of Gallen, Kelly, and Mantiply, and that’s assuming the three of them don’t regress or get hurt. Kelly in particular was a lot of smoke and mirrors this year and the league will figure him out. But even counting MadBum, that’s 8 guys they really need to switch out. That’s a lot. Yeah they have some good arms in the minors but Pfaadt’s the only one who looks close to ready. The OF is sexy, for sure (Carroll’s gonna get MVP votes in the next few years is my prediction) but the IF isn’t. Marte looks like he’s lost a lot of bat speed that isn’t coming back. Walker was a positive but right on the line. If his contact rate goes any lower it will be a big problem. And there’s nothing on the near horizon at SS or 3B (although I’d love to have Rojas around as a DH).
Basically they have a TON of holes to fill and not a lot of payroll to fill them.
seamanolic
I disagree with virtually everything you wrote.
I will not make the wildly untrue statement that the Dbacks are 1 player (a Closer) away from contention, but I will say that the Dbacks are closer to that statement than they are to your contention that they have “TONS of holes to fill”!
They don’t have a ton of holes to fill if your goal is to be a .500ish team, they do have a ton of holes to fill if your goal is to compete for a playoff spot.
flaming bag
The Dbacks improved by 22 wins this year over last year’s anomaly disaster. I look for a 15 win improvement in 2023 to 90 wins as the highly touted rookies get their first full season of seasoning. Then a run of 100+ win seasons starting in 2024.
So I’m certainly not settling for a .500ish club.
Your expectations of another 15 win jump in the standings is wildly hopeful. Very unlikely to happen. A few rookies isn’t gonna make that leap. Decent chance they are actually WORSE next year.
Cosmo
Dbacks entertain the Mets for a 3 game set beginning July 4. Then the Mets host the Dbacks for 4 starting September 11.
Let’s chat after those games and see whose expectations were realistic.
The Mets are better right now. Not sure what point you’re making here. Sounds pretty infantile to me. Even if the Mets are bad or get swept by Arizona next year what does that have to do with your nonsensical prediction of a fifteen game improvement? What does a head to head match up between our teams have to do with any of this? I just think your assumption that such an improvement is to be expected is inaccurate. Why you need to turn it into a pissing contest about two series next year is beyond me.
Cosmo
I’m saying by mid-Sept next year it will be apparent how good or bad the Dbacks season will have been, and that since you obviously don’t follow the Dbacks very closely, you will have seen them play your team, so will have some first hand knowledge about how good or bad they are too.
Yes we will all know what the future holds once it becomes the present. Still don’t see what the Mets have to do with Arizona making a plus 37 game jump over 2 seasons.
Cosmo
I’m sorry you are too dense to understand. We hayseeds out in the hinterlands west of the Allegheny River are typically too cerebral for New Yorker’s polluted brains. So, I’ll let you reread and think about my comments some more and maybe a dim lightbulb will go on in your brain.
P.S. I don’t typically exchange personal insults, but since that seems to be your only way of communicating…back at ‘cha brother!
Ok. You seem to be the one not understanding the basic notion that I don’t think Arizona will improve that much. You keep bringing the Mets into this for some reason. But ok.
How was Merrill Kelly “a lot of smoke and mirrors”? 3.37 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.62 xERA, and 3.85 xFIP; that suggests a small bit of luck in a context neutral environment, but in reality there doesn’t exist an environment with zero context.
In reality, pitchers with good command and good changeups (both of which Merrill has) have a tendency to outperform peripheral stats and both skills tend to fade later than those utilized by “Power Pitchers”. Also, strong defense backing up a pitcher has a tendency to allow them to outperform peripheral stats as well; that’s what allowed the 2016 Cubs pitching to outperform their FIP to the highest degree in MLB’s history.
Maybe there’s (likely) some age related regression in the cards, but there’s no reason to suggest that there’s a massive amount of regression to the mean incoming. His 2022 numbers are either a good #3 or a serviceable #2, which is all that’s being asked of him with the emergence of Zac Gallen at the top of the rotation. Add the combination of Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson (who are both absolutely filthy and showed a decent amount of control over their entire arsenals in limited MLB time for guys whose biggest question marks were exactly that) to the rotation mix, and there’s reason enough to shove Bumgarner to the #5 spot or to the bullpen. If they want to make a push, Hazen can’t subscribe to the sunk cost fallacy anymore. Pfaadt, Henry, and Walston aren’t Dodger-quality options, but they’re certainly not a bad group to be the first line of injury replacements (that calculus changes immensely if Pfaadt dominates all the way through ST).
Also on note of the defense, there’s no reason to run Pavin Smith out in the OF anymore and no reason to run Rojas out at 3B anymore. The defense will get a slight improvement strictly by shifting playing time away from those two in those positions. Add that to Ahmed coming back and making it a three way competition between him, Perdomo, and Alcántara at SS, and the defense should be just as strong, if not slightly stronger, next season (just please don’t let Hummel catch too much).
FWIW, Walker was well above average as a player, he was nowhere close to “right on the line”. He was actually below the league average K% and above the league average BB% while providing top tier defense and strong contact quality. Maybe he’s not a building block due to age, but he’s a damn good complementary player with the improvements he’s made with his discipline/defense.
That’s before even mentioning getting a full season from what is likely the frontrunner for NL RotY and a guy that prospect outlets are comfortable projecting as at least an above average player (Carroll managed 1.4 fWAR in 115 PA, which is a WELL above average pace; to be clear I don’t expect improvement upon that rate or to maintain it for a whole season, but there’s enough there to suggest that evaluators were right about the baseline for his talent level in MLB) and they have an incredibly strong position player core in place, even if Thomas starts the year in AAA.
So, (at least on the position player side) the biggest hole is still 3B, unless they want an improvement at C, but they have multiple options for both of those positions. They’re definitely not sexy options, but they’re not bottom of the barrel either.
C Kelly, 1B Walker, 2B Marte, 3B Rivera/Alcántara (at least there will be good defense), SS Ahmed/Alcántara/Perdomo (who might be best served starting the year in MiLB), LF McCarthy, CF Carroll, and RF Varsho with a bench of Hummel, Garrett, Smith, and Rojas as a rover (although a defensive liability) getting full seasons in their respective roles is a respectable offensive core before considering any improvements to the mix.
Now, the less we say about the bullpen the better, but Mantiply, Nelson, and Smith are decent enough outside of high leverage situations, Melancon is guaranteed to be back (but shouldn’t see the 9th until he shows that he can consistently/reliably hit his spots), and Ginkel is at least an intriguing power arm. So that’s 5/8 bullpen spots that are functionally already filled. No need for a LHP, but there is a clear need for AT LEAST one quality reliever to add to the mix before they can even start dreaming about being a Wild Card team (preferably 2-3, but that won’t happen). All things considered, this is a team that’s very close to a Wild Card.
They could roll into next season acquiring one reasonably good reliever that can handle the 9th, and I’d honestly feel like they could at least compete on a nightly basis (I wouldn’t be comfortable with postseason odds, though). That’s all we’re asking for in AZ at this point; a team that you can show up any given night for and you feel like there’s a shot to win.
In the FWIW department, life is about to become a whole lot harder for RH pitching.
Agree with you on that, but the inverse is also true. It’s about to be a whole lot easier for LH batting, particularly the guys that have the speed to beat out deep groundballs fielders knock down or lay out to get a glove on.
The guys like Carroll, McCarthy, Thomas and Varsho (and to a limited extent Hummel) have that kind of speed.
We’re saying the same thing really. Righty pitching is about to get more difficult because lefty batters won’t have to hit into radical infield shifts. Those line drives between 1B and 2B that used to be base hits will become hits again. I haven’t seen a lot of discussion about just how big a change this will be, but I think it will be huge, and at a minimum, the premiums for LHB and LHP will likely increase.
If it weren’t for mid level manager males that went to some state school who still wear polo shirts, cheat on their wives, and think they are good at golf just because they put an oversized putter on their credit card, there wouldn’t be an Arizona
Nice opening salvo. Sorry it only generated this one reply so far. If I was to offer one critique, I would suggest you troll a team or an individual player. Trolling an entire state, in hindsight, seems a little broad. Otherwise, sterling effort.
My insights and observations leave the commoner speechless. They are so spot on and accurate there’s nothing left to say. I can hear the applause and that’s all that matters.
Well, you left me speechless, but for a whole different reason — I try to not respond to idiocy.
If you’re hearing applause, I recommend getting checked for schizophrenia. Maybe you’ll be a less miserable person with some treatment.
You paint a vivid picture with words. Are they also are obsessed with the patch of lawn they own in the desert?
I’ve heard Arizona described as a testament to the hubris of man. Which makes sense when Arizona has more than double the number of golf courses than the entire Middle East combined.
Will the Dbacks be competitive for a playoff spot in 2023?
Yes, IF they get a Closer this off-season!
And Yes, IF most of the young starting pitchers and OFers continue their tremendous 2022 improvement!
That’s a lot of IFs, so I think they will fall just short of a Wild Card spot.
Missing is all this write-up as we look at the players on the roster is that Brent Strom came in to be their pitching coach late last offseason.
At issue is whether he can implement new pitching processes and train younger coaches to pick up the ball, because he’s probably not staying there for more than a couple of years or so. One doesn’t revamp a poor pitching operation in a year.
MLB is all about making the players a franchise has under contract better. Mr. Strom can get the pitching operation in the right direction. But the DBacks still have problems developing position players – hitting, fielding and playing smart, consistent, fundamental baseball. Like many teams they seem to be in circles. In their case they they trade some veterans for youngsters and acquire some big prospects in the draft; bring them up to the majors as they’re doing at present. Some do very well for a bit so everyone thinks their core is on place. Then the players seem to hit a wall and some slowly begin regressing. 3-4 years later they start the cycle over again.
The D’Backs have an interesting team. They need a 3B (Rojas would be great as a Mark McLemore type super sub). A SS, though they could (and did) do worse than Ahmed and would have to eat a large chunk of his salary to trade him. And they definitely can’t role with Melancon as closer (though Ian Kennedy didn’t fare much better) so the backend of the bullpen needs to be addressed. Beyond that this is actually becoming a fun team to watch
I’m betting Judge to Arizona.
He seems like private desert workout compound type fellow.
I’ll take that bet. No way they are signing a big ticket OF in AZ. They are stacked with OFs.
The Dbacks starting pitching staff is shaping up for the present and for years to come. Gallen and Kelly are the young veterans. Jameson, Nelson and Henry will jockey for 2 spots throughout 2023. All 3 are far better than MadBum and probably better than Kelly.
Mid-season in 2023 Brandon Pfaadt will be promoted. My comp for Pfaadt is Jacob deGrom, an extremely high strikeout Ace. 2023 will be a growth/development year for these young pitchers. 2024 and beyond they will be the best starting five in MLB
After bullpen/Closer, the Dbacks other Achilles Heel type problem is that their entire OF is left-handed hitters. So their Achilles Heel is facing left-handed pitching. They need some talent from the right side for their OF. Stone Garrett and certainly Jordan Luplow are not the answer. Kristian Robinson’s return from his legal issues and the development of his huge talent will be a huge storyline in 2023. If he develops his immense talent, I see multiple World Series appearances in the Dbacks near term future.
I like Jorge Barrosa. Switch hitter, good approach, and I could see him getting a 2023 call up.
Other than him and maybe Tawa (if he ups that average) youre right they are very thin in that regard. Thankfully, that’s not an all too difficult fix
Stone Garrett had very good numbers in his MLB debut with limited at bats and outfield opportunities. He had 28 AAA and 4 MLB homers which could have led the organization if it wasn’t a decrease in MLB playing time. Maybe off-season adjustments or trading him would be optima.
Stone Garrett’s hitting stats are very good for his MLB debut even though a small sample size. Strong power hitter with 28 AAA and 4 MLB homers this year which he could have led the organization in total home runs if not for a decrease in MLB playing time with Dbacks crowded outfield. With off season adjustments and more consistent playing time he could be solid contributor for some MLB team.
Closer will be a huge problem to solve this off-season. TheDbacks drafted their closer of the future in the Competitive Balance A, #39 overall, Landon Sims. But he’s a few years away.
This off-season, the Dbacks need to dangle their left-handed hitting Center Fielder redundancy to snag a young Closer. I’m suggesting Emmanuel Clase of Cleveland, Jordan Romano of Toronto, or Camilo Duval of San Francisco.
I’m an advocate of packaging Ketel Marte with Madison Bumgarner to off-load salary, give the 4-5 young starters development time in 2023, and get something of value in return.
You couldn’t get Jason Heyward for either of those guys. Their contracts are both underwater.
BTW Does anyone remember Ron Cey “The Duck” the Dodgers IF? He was called the Duck because of the way he ran. Corbin Carroll runs just like Ron Cey.
His nickname was the penguin.
Yes my bad. Is there a resemblance?
You mean to me? No, not really!
My proposal for the Dbacks is move MadBum to the bullpen. He cannot be worse than Melancon, Kennedy and Moronta. MadBum carried the Giants in the post-season and will always be part of baseball lore (he will even get some HOF votes though fall short), but those days are over. Crazy to trade a prospect for reliever.
D-backs of the future:
Gallen, Varsho, Carroll, Lawlar, Jones if injury does not set him back too much
Squeeze what you can out of both Kellys, Walker, Thomas, and hope for a Marte recovery.
Regression for Jameson, Nelson, Mantiply and McCarthy.
Ducks fly.