Brandon Nimmo is “on the Rockies’ preliminary wish list” heading into the offseason, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Given how the Rockies somewhat unexpectedly splurged on Kris Bryant last winter, they shouldn’t be ruled out of making another splashy move, though it will indeed take a big commitment to win a bidding war for Nimmo’s services. As observed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in his recent Rockies-focused Offseason Outlook entry, Colorado is already close to its club-record payroll high, so the Rox may have to go well beyond their usual financial comfort zone to add Nimmo or any other notable free agent (unless they created some payroll space with trades and non-tenders). The Rockies might at least have a geographical advantage if Nimmo wants to play closer to home, as Denver is less than two hours away from Nimmo’s hometown of Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Signing Nimmo would immediately solidify the center field position for the Rockies, bring some left-handed balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and give the club some more offensive pop. While Nimmo has had trouble staying off the injured list during his career, he has always been productive when healthy, and answered some questions about his durability by playing in 151 games with the Mets in 2022. Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 over 673 plate appearances, with 16 homers and a league-best seven triples — his 134 wRC+ was higher than any Rockies player with at least 100 PA last season.
More from around the NL West…
- The Padres surpassed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, though it doesn’t seem like the team is planning to curb its spending any time soon. “We’re good, and we have to protect that and enhance it,” club chairman Peter Seidler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Naturally, neither Seidler or president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave any concrete numbers about offseason spending plans, and Preller noted that the Padres have had the financial flexibility “for the things are going to come up through the season. Sometimes that calls for players and free agency trades, players of different caliber and different dollar amounts.” As Acee notes, San Diego already has around $187MM projected for next season’s payroll, and plenty of holes to fill on a roster that might lose some key players to free agency.
- Diamondbacks star prospect Jordan Lawlar will need 6-8 weeks of recovery time after suffering a fractured left scapula last week during Arizona Fall League play. A wayward pitch from Orioles prospect Nick Richmond “just hit [Lawlar] in the wrong spot,” D’Backs farm director Josh Barfield told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. However, Barfield said the injury won’t require surgery or be too much of a setback for Lawlar’s offseason prep, even though it will end Lawlar’s excellent AFL showing. The sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Lawlar just turned 20 years old back in July but has already made his Double-A debut. Assuming good health and continued progress, it might not be out of the question that Lawlar makes his Major League debut late in the 2023 season, though the Diamondbacks don’t want to rush things with a player who has only 102 total minor league games on his resume.
How on earth does Colorado have a near record high payroll? If you’re finishing last in your division and record payroll the owner should force his front office to slash payroll if they’re smart.
“…If they’re smart”.
It’s the Rockies, man…
Rox don’t do the “if you’re bad tear it down” thing. Their owner spends no matter what, and keeps trying to get better (not with a lot of success). His payroll relative to market size is one of the highest in the sport. I actually give them major points for that attitude.
I can understand appreciating the attitude, to a point, but when something continues to fail it’s probably time to try something else.
“How on earth does Colorado have a near record high payroll?”
A couple of big contracts and a bunch of mid-tier contracts, none of them all that smart. Plus paying some of Arenado’s salary. Rockies do not spend wisely.
You have hit the Nail on the head!!
Arenado!
Colorado’s still on the hook for
Paying $32 million to St. Louis to watch Arenado play for the Cardinals for the next 2 seasons.
A lesson here is that spending does not equal success.
If ownership was more frugal, folks on here would be calling it out for being cheap; it does spend, fails, and here comes the criticism.
Sounds about right, just looking for someone to criticize.
The Rockies have Brandon Nimmo on their radar is a mailbag question and a response that starts off by saying it’s not a legitimate rumour
While he starts is off saying that it’s “speculation”, he then states he’s spoken to several around the league and Nimmo is on their “preliminary wish list” — which seems more than speculation. It is fair though that if you’re pointing out the distance from his hometown, also point out his agent (Boras) that slept through Geography class as a boy.
Cue that MarlinsFanBase guy to tell us how much he hates Nimmo and how much Nimmo sucks, blah, blah, blah
Not sure it’s wise to string together 2 consecutive off seasons when your big FA sign has durability issues. I can just see the MLBTR off-season outlook for the Rockies 2 years from now when the author mentions that (due to durability issues) Nimmo and Bryant have only played X number of games together in the OF since 2023.
It doesn’t feel like the Rockies give any thought whatsoever to stuff like that.
1-Overpay Arenado.
2-Overpay someone to take Arenado.
3-Don’t bother trading Story or Gray.
4-Lose Story & Gray for very little.
5-Sign Bryant to compensate for losing Story & Gray.
These aren’t moves that simply didn’t work out. These are moves that were unanimously panned. I think the entire baseball world is still baffled by them signing Desmond for $70M/5, when they didn’t even have an open position for him.
“preliminary wish list.”
Rockies better start writing to Santa early, I heard he’s on a lot of teams list.
Some team will be wishing they hadn’t signed him as soon as his injury issues resurface. If you have injury problems already like Nimmo does, Denver is not the place to play. The high altitude makes recovery from injuries more difficult.
Altitude has no relation to recovery time. Many, many studies have shown this.
Many studies have shown that it does have an effect on recovery from injuries. Both positive and negative.
It shortens recovery time from bone breaks and increases the recovery time from soft tissue injuries. It also increases the occurrence and severity of concussions.
There are entire industries and medical centers for athletes built around the effects of altitude on the body. I have been a partner in a high altitude medical and training facility for endurance athletes since 2014. Mostly cyclists and marathon runners.
I don’t know about recovery time but I did look up studies on the field… Denver is extremely dry which leads to the field being extremely hard… great for hitters, no so great for playing defense.
When people talk about the Rockies being “stupid” and “poorly ran” i do tend to agree because they seem to completely disregard the negative (and positive) effects of where they play 81 games. Signing Kris Bryant to play on a surface that equates to concrete? Rumored interest in Nimmo, with his injury history to do the same?
If you’re the Rockies, and you have money to spend (assuming you have money to spend) spend it on pitching, even if you have to offer more money/years than anyone else. Meanwhile, model your offensive spending around teams like Tampa and Milwaukee, I.e. don’t spend much, get slightly above league average hitters and really solid outfield defenders that can cover the space of Coors…
I’m a Cubs fan, I like Kris Bryant, that guy cannot defend a Coors field outfield plain and simple. I don’t know what the Rockies were thinking with that move. There is too much space, the ball has more carry and moves faster… with as athletic as KB is, he’s not a good enough defender for Coors
Is KB even that athletic anymore? Injuries have really done a number on him. Watching him from the time he came up until he was shipped out, I feel like you could see a noticeable difference. I’m glad the cubs stayed away from that contract.
Even in half a season Nimmo provides a lot of value. He’s not as injury prone as he’s made out to be.
He has had weird injuries too, not just a token nagging hamstring or something. He is a great underrated player, vastly improved cf play, a commitment to success and never taking a single at bat for granted, class act, hustler. Any team that gets him will fall in love with his style like queens has these past bunch of years.
Any team that gets him will fall in love with his style
=========================
I told that to Yankee fans when they signed Ellsbury. He’s an easy guy to root for, but he doesn’t stay on the field. Let the Rox sign him.
Just because an injury is “weird,” that doesn’t mean it’s insignificant. This is the list of Nimmo’s injuries on Spotrac, not including Covid, in descending order by date:
hamstring, finger, neck, finger, undisclosed, hamstring.
He’s a very good player when he’s on the field, in fact the most valuable Met since his rookie season by measure of fWAR.
But it would be foolish for any GM to ignore the injury concerns, although Boras will encourage that attitude. Nimmo has played 100+ games only twice in six years since his rookie season. If Stanton had been able to stay healthy, he’d have been a lot more valuable to the Yankees than he has been.
I agree, the idea of “freak” injuries implies that every player would have inherently gotten injured in a certain situation but we can’t just assume that. Still, I think Nimmo is a good guy to bet on, so to speak.
If it’s an impact injury (e.g., getting spiked or hit by a pitch), it’s reasonable to discount that from the “injury-prone” category unless the injury was a function of bad baserunning or chronically crowding the plate. But when it’s an injury that wasn’t caused by traumatic impact, particularly when it’s a soft tissue injury, it’s worrisome.
@Fink As someone who’s mostly unfamiliar with Nimmo’s history but very interested to see where he lands, this is interesting stuff. Thanks Fink.
Your servant, sir!
First Base – Kolten Wong shifts from 2B to 1B,
Second Base – Jake Cronenworth
SS – Ha Seong Kim
Third Base – Manny Machado
CF
Grisham against righties, Tatis Jr against Lefties
RF
Tatis Jr, another RH bat against lefties when Tatis shifts to CF
LF
David Peralta against righties, Donovan Solano against lefties
SP
Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Heaney, Cueto, Greinke, Quintana, Davies – some combination of 2 of those.
RP
Fulmer, Kimbrel, Bass, Bradley, Bedrosian, Hunter, Vizcaino – can see Padres looking at reclamation projects for pen
Could use a lefty like Matt Moore or Chafin, old friend Strahm,
Padres can definitely field a competitive team just by looking to sign guys who can play multiple positions and look for platoon advantage and finding guys looking to rebuild value in the pen. SP they should look for guys who can give them consistent innings out of the #4 and #5 spot plus some depth.
There are plenty of solid 1B out there to grab without having to convert a very good defensive 2B.
Wong is coming off a pretty rough 2022 defensively. MLBTR covered it if you haven’t seen it during the Brewers offseason outlook article. Worth a read. He’s also 31 so not getting any younger out there. But he wouldnt be just 1B. Hed cover other positions on days off for guys.
This is one of the strangest ideas I’ve ever heard!
Where’s Soto in your lineup? I’d rather re-sign Drury than Wong. I do like the idea of Cueto and Davies!
DH primarily been such a weak spot for them dating back to 2020. Probably not the best use of his talents but having Grisham and Tatis in OF possibly Profar if he returns gives them a better range defensively. OF should try and maximize best defensive especially when you can shift guys to a DH/1B role now a days.
there was no dh in the national league until 2022.
Wrong. National League had a DH for the shortened 2020 season. Then it was removed for 2021, and back for good in 2022.
But Soto is a Gold Glove finalist! 🙂
No offense but why would you add sign a defense first (besides this year) 2nd baseman to play first? If you are going the wong route why not move crone zone to 1st. He has experience there anyway.
His OBP ability. Plus cost conscious move. Wouldnt be my first choice, but I see him as the primary 1B that can possibly play 2B and 3B who can shift around to give guys days off at a relatively cheaper option compared to other guys out there who may command more.
Except your first baseman is not the one you want to be a high OBP guy. In an ideal lineup, he is the one you want to drive in the high OBP guys. I’d much rather have a 1B that puts the ball in play in the cleanup position as opposed to be a 3 true outcome guy. Striking out with guys on base is useless, but really so is walking if you are the key power hitter. That’s why they have intentional walks to begin with.
Do you seriously think the Padres are going to ask Tatis to play multiple positions? If he is moved to the OF it will be as the everyday starter at one position. Probably CF with his athleticism. Has Profar opted out? If he doesn’t, Grisham becomes the 4th OF, which is exactly what you would expect from a guy that hit .180 but played the best defense in the league. Your GM has already said that at least one of Myers, Drury, or Bell will be a target for them. Whichever one it is that they resign will start at 1B. In case you missed it, your team is no longer the home for pitching reclamation projects. Both Clevinger and Manaea have said they would like to return, so if they are going to try to reclaim a pitcher, its going to be one of those two.
Just don’t move Kim to 2B. He’s either the shortstop or traded.
Without the shift, having a good defensive second basemen is more valuable. I’d agree that Kim should probably be the SS though, since he’s also good at that.
So put Tatis at 2B
I stopped reading after Kolten Wong at 1st base lol. This isn’t the old cheap ownership looking for a stop gap.
First Baseman are literally a-dime-a-dozen in free agency and in your scenario Cronenworth has 54 games under his belt at 1B compared to Wong’s 0, it would seem more reasonable for Cronenworth to shift to 1B.
Your scenario also seems exclude Juan Soto. Soto will be in RF so if Tatis is playing the OF it’s either CF or LF though i think it is more likely he stays at SS with Kim playing 2B
First off, Kim put up 4.9 WAR this year. Seeing as how he finished the year with a .708 OPS, it seems little of that came from offense. His defense is what gives him such great value and moving him to 2B would kill much of that. Tatis has also been repeatedly injured playing SS and has been consistently below average there. I don’t see him returning to SS.
Juan Soto does not have above-average speed, arm or defensive potential. Tatis has all 3. Defensively the Padres would be best served putting Tatis in RF and returning Soto to his original position LF. I know many people see Tatis’s tools and want him in CF, but you don’t put a man made of glass in CF.
107 OPS+ means Kim was above average with the bat. He was among the best on defense.
They are not LITERALLY a dime a dozen. One of my biggest pet peeves is when people misuse that word. They are figuratively a dime a dozen. And even that is completely misguided thinking. There really are not that many great 1B in the game right now, So getting a great one puts you way up on the competition.
Maybe. But they are literally paying one $39 million dollars to play against them. Maybe they try a Rizzo redux this winter but other than that free agency is typically unkind to 1B given that most have limited defensive value and historically big money deals for 1B never work out
It has been, but I think the shift elimination will help first basemen more than any other position since that is typically a lefty position and lefties were shifted on far more often. It might not show up THIS offseason, but I think it will next year for sure.
Unpopular opinion but after decimating the farm system, Preller should trade Machado, strong possibility he opts out and it’s an epically weak third base market, sign Abreu, move Tatis to third.
Its not just a weak 3B market in terms of players but also in terms of buyers. Not very many teams looking to spend big money at the hot corner and i believe that is what Arenado ultimately chose to stay with the Cardinals
Where do you get that from? Kris Bryant got paid… Anthony Rendon got paid… Manny Machado got paid… Josh Donaldson got paid… Austin Riley got paid… so where is your logic behind that statement? The Red Sox low balling Devers? Does that make it league wide teams don’t want to spend at the hot corner?
Bryant got paid…to play the OF. Machado got paid in a market that actually had a bidding war for his services. Rendon and Donaldson were also free agents at a time when there was a real market for their services. Neither would get anything close to what they got right now. Arenado and Reilly got paid to stay with their original teams.
The market for Machado would hypothetically be the Giants and maybe the Rangers/Mets/Cubs (if they feel like spending a couple of hundred million just to sign a big name)
You don’t even know what you’re talking about and your argument/explanation is beyond ridiculous.
Every single premier third baseman has gotten a massive deal and you’re fool hearted enough to believe they wouldn’t have gotten paid now? Sure Rendon coming off the seasons he had recently wouldn’t but Machado, Arenado would easily top the contracts they have.
You clearly fail to understand Arenado if you think his market is why he didn’t opt out so let’s break it down Barney style for you:
Arenado signed an extension with the Rockies because he was promised the world, well actually just promised they would build a contender around him. Then they immediately slashed payroll and went into a rebuild which ignited Arenados unhappiness and desire to be traded.
He was traded to St Louis AND as a result, they tacked on another guaranteed year for him. He now plays for a team that will contend year in and year out, a great organization that isn’t for some (Rasmus being one) but a lot of players love it.
Does Arenado really want to go to another organization, be lied to, courted to find himself in another Rockies situation? I feel fairly confident to speak for him in this and say no… people thought he would use an opt for leverage for a longer deal… he could sign an extension still or maybe he doesn’t want to play into his late 30s being he’s made hundreds of millions of dollars already.
You claim there is no market, there is a huge market for Arenado (or Machado) you are talking about arguably the top two third basemen in the game.
Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, you’re beloved Red Sox would move Devers in a heart beat for either, Nationals, Mets (happily move Batty), mariners, Jays… anyone who could afford them would be in on them.
Condescending dbag response much?
Dodgers wouldn’t bring Machado back if he paid them. Sox won’t swim in those waters, if they would Devers (and Xander Bogaerts for that matter) would already have signed new contracts. Nats aren’t going to be spending anything until after they are sold and aren’t in a position to contend. We’ll see how the Yankees handle Judge but Hal is not his father. I listed the Cubs and Mets as possibilities. $250-300 million contracts are not just getting thrown around like nothing
Oh no… please don’t call me a dbag…
The reason the Red Sox won’t “swim in those waters” with Devers is because Devers isn’t the player Machado is. Sorry to break it to you but that is a fact.
Wouldn’t be popular but I’d be all for it. 1 year from now one of the following would be true:
A) The Padres can bring Machado back as a FA
B) The team the Padres trade him to would pay them to take him back
So turn Wong into a below replacement level
player by eliminating his defensive value and making him one of the worst hitting first baseman in baseball? What are you thinking? Plus, he’s 5’7”. Not a good idea.
Dang
The Rockies are paying Nolan Arenado more money next year than anyone currently on their roster except Kris Bryant… lol
Interesting how Bryant (NV) and Nimmo (WY) are both from nearby areas to Colorado…
Yes the Rockies scouted both of them heavily when they were preps, and have on and off tried to acquire them as pros. They badly wanted KB to fall to them in the draft (missed by one).
The Rockies are such a weirdly run org. Can’t complain about owners spending money on players, but they never have anything close to a complete team
I’ll give you the proximity of Wyoming, but Las Vegas is 750 miles from Denver in the southern tip of Nevada.
Cheyenne, where Nimmo attended high school, is only about 100 miles from Coors Field, and Nimmo’s father was from Colorado, and Brandon grew up rooting for the Rockies.
After the 80 game ban to Fernando Tatis Jr would San Diego trade him and sign a different shortstop like Trea Turner. Maybe a deal to the Yankees if Aaron judge leaves New York.
Tatis has 20 games left on his suspension next year and has a full No-trade clause in his contract until 2028. He isn’t getting traded.
They also have a SS who gave them 4.9 WAR last year in Kim. They don’t need a replacement.
from what I understand, Tatis will be playing the OF when he comes back. the padres like K at short so it doesn’t look like they’ll be shopping for a SS any time soon
Is Kim really a name that needs to be shortened to K? I understand shortening Cronenworth or Clevinger, but Kim?
“Colorado is already close to its club-record payroll high, so the Rox may have to go well beyond their usual financial comfort zone to add Nimmo or any other notable free agent”
The only Large Contract the Rockies have is Kris Bryant @ $ 27 MM. Then there is Charlie Blackmon with a $ 10 MM Player Option only for ’23. They should be able to squeeze Nimmo in if they so desire who I project will sign for $ 125 MM for 5 years or thereabouts comparable to George Springer who is better.
They have to pay $16m to Arenado next year (their last major payment). Their team record payroll is only about $160m. It’s a small market.
Where does Charlie Blackmon sit for 2023? $ 10 MM or higher based on triggers?
There is also over $ 4MM in cash received from Toronto for Grichuk in 2023.
They can always get creative and backload Nimmo’s contract with deferrals if they wish.
The most obvious savings would be moving CJ Cron and installing Toglia at 1B. I HOPE that is what happens, but who knows.
Blackmon will be in the Final Year of a 6 Year Extension in 2023 if he exercises his option which he is expected to do which will be worth $ 18 MM with incentives. He departed 2022 requiring season ending surgery so he will probably return as a part time DH / RF.
I therefore can see the Rockies making a run to sign Nimmo who they have coveted as a longer term OF Option as they did with Kris Bryant and if there is mutual interest they will of course have to compete against the Mets who will be trying to retain him.
Places like Atlanta, St. Louis, and Denver are larger markets for baseball then a lot of people give them credit for. The fact that St. Louis gets a competitive balance pick blows my mind. I mean when they are decent which is most of the time, they draw tons of fans. They also have a lot of fans in places like the mid west and Tennessee and Arkansas. It’s also insane how many fans show up to Coors Field even when they are a dreadful dumpster fire.
Love the comments from Seidler and Preller since the end of the season. Seidler wants to go for it and is willing to continue to spend.. What an incredible change for Padres fans.
Preller talked about bringing back at least one of Drury, Bell, or Myers and signing Soto long term.
When asked it a top starter was a possibility, Preller said they would be inquiring about every FA and none was out of their range. Guys like deGrom and Rodon are in the realm of possibility.
I was not a fan of Profar as an infielder, but hoping he does not opt out. A Soto, Tatis, Profar OF with Grisham as the defensive replacement is exciting.
An infield of Machado, Kim, Cronenworth, and any of Myers/Drury/Bell is a good one.
Would love to see more of Campusano behind the plate as the backup to Nola.
A rotation with Darvish, Musgrove, Snell in it is solid regardless of whether they add to the top or just fill in or add Martinez to it if he doesn’t opt out.. I am thinking they will make a splash here.
Hader, Pomeranz Garcia, Suarez, Morejon, Crismatt, Wilson, Hill is a good one with Baez, Castillo, and Kopps as depth.
Beginning to wonder if Lawler is injury prone? Or starcrossed?
Does Nimmo have the range to play CF at Coors?
Not really. He plays deep so he can cover the balls hit there but this leaves him susceptible to balls falling in front of him for hits. The best CFs and I have played CF play shallow. He also has a weak throwing arm so IMO he is best suited for LF. From what I remember Rockies Stadium has expansive OF Grounds and the ball carries well.
Offensively he should perform great there high OBP with walks and some contact. His shortcoming is he has speed but no base stealing ability for a leadoff batter. He has high intangibles in that he brings positive energy to the Team.
Nimmo’s sprint speed is 28.7. Trent Grisham’s is 28.8, and he led all center fielders in Outs Above Average with 17 (Nimmo’s OAA was a very decent +6). Where Grisham excelled and Nimmo lagged was in reaction time. That suggests to me that some good coaching could help Brandon get better reads and better jumps on the ball off the bat and thereby improve his fielding. I don’t think his challenge need be about his range.
Also, Nimmo’s arm strength ranked in the 88.1 percentile, which was better than Grisham’s, so that doesn’t appear to be a problem either.
I have to wonder though if Nimmo (a seasoned veteran now, who’ll be 30 at the start of next season) and his coaches – wouldn’t have already done everything possible to maximize his reads and jumps to the absolute best of his and their abilities…
That’s a reasonable conjecture, goob, and of course we can’t know for sure.
But checking out the team defensive metrics from 2019 through 2022, I find the Mets outfielders ranking in the 20th tier in Defensive Runs Saved (-17), 26th in UZR (-35.4), 27th in UZR/150 (-3.4), in the 17th tier in Outs Above Average (-13), and in the 18th tier in Statcast Fielding Runs Prevented (-12).
Checking just this year’s metrics, their outfielders’ ranks stayed pretty much in the same range, except for the Statcast metrics, where they improved from the 17th tier in OAA to the 14th and from the 18th tier in Statcast Fielding Runs Prevented (RAA) to the 13th rank.
There are caveats that come with appraising team metrics in fielding, of course. First, how much of the ranking reflects the abilities of particular fielders (if there’s one particularly inept guy out there, how much is he dragging down the cumulative rating)? And how reliable are defensive metrics to begin with? IMO, defensive ability defies exactitude in measurement because there’s a range of variables that defy precise quantification. The metrics are probably substantially better with recent developments like the Statcast measurements, but I tend to survey all the metrics to see how they agree or disagree about a player or a team and draw only very general conclusions.
So, is it fair to draw the conclusion that the Mets’ outfield coaches haven’t been particularly good at their jobs, or do the poor rankings reflect the talent level or teachability of the players? I don’t know.
All I can say is, the lousy rankings at least open up the possibility that the coaches aren’t the best. But I’d refuse to state categorically that that’s the case. Again, I don’t know.
Pardon the windy reply, but I try to be thorough, for good or ill.
No no, I appreciate the detail, the effort, and the humility. There are many things in baseball (and in life) that “defy exactitude” as you nicely put it.
I’d speculate that Nimmo has basically maxed-out his defensive skill-set by this point – although he probably didn’t make himself a big leaguer by ever resting on his laurels – so I’d also say that if he can find any new way(s) to improve his game, he certainly will.