There were plenty of times this season when it was unclear whether or not either of the Phillies or Padres would even reach the postseason, and even when the playoffs began, Philadelphia vs. San Diego seemed like a very unlikely scenario. And yet, this is the matchup heading into the National League Championship Series, as both the Phils and Friars have upended the baseball world with four upsets.
The Phillies looked in deep trouble heading into the ninth inning of Game 1 of their Wild Card Series matchup with the Cardinals, but Philadelphia overcame a 2-0 deficit with a six-run outburst in the top of the ninth, en route to a 6-3 victory. An Aaron Nola gem helped shut out the Cardinals in Game 2, clinching the series and setting the Phillies up for a date with their NL East rivals, the defending World Series-champion Braves. Splitting the first two games in Atlanta, the Phillies lineup was seemingly buoyed by a raucous Citizens Bank Park crowd, outscoring the Braves by a 17-4 margin in Games 3 and 4 to move deeper into October.
Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper has carried the offense, hitting .435/.480/.957 over his 26 plate appearances in the playoffs. Jean Segura and Brandon Marsh have also been on fire at the plate, and while other Philadelphia batters have been generally less consistent, multiple players have delivered at least one big hit — for instance, Rhys Hoskins’ three-run homer in Game 3 of the NLDS, or J.T. Realmuto’s inside-the-park homer in Game 4. On the pitching side, Nola has led the way with 12 2/3 scoreless innings of work, while the much-maligned Phillies bullpen has done its job in protecting leads.
The Padres are getting much of their offense from a superstar (Manny Machado), but also from the back end of their lineup, as Trent Grisham, Austin Nola, and Jurickson Profar have combined for 23 of San Diego’s 56 hits in the postseason. Grisham has also been an unexpected power source, hitting three home runs in the playoffs after delivering only a .341 slugging percentage in the regular season. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell have all pitched well in the rotation, and the bullpen has been almost untouchable. Apart from a disastrous Adrian Morejon outing that saw him charged with four runs without a single out, the rest of San Diego’s relievers have a cumulative 0.73 ERA over 24 2/3 innings.
This well-rounded attack helped the Padres outlast the Mets in the Wild Card Series, as San Diego beat up on Mets ace Max Scherzer in Game 1, and Musgrove and the bullpen held New York to just a single hit in a 6-0 win in the Game 3 clincher. Moving into the NLDS, the Padres exorcised years of demons by defeating the arch-rival Dodgers in four games, winning the final three contests after Los Angeles won Game 1. The Dodgers also held a 3-0 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh inning of Game 4, but the Padres launched a five-run outburst to take the lead and finally claim some bragging rights in the SoCal rivalry.
This is the first-ever postseason meeting between the two franchises. Philadelphia last reached the NLCS in 2010 (and hadn’t been in the playoffs altogether since 2011), while San Diego’s last NLCS trip came all the way back in 1998. There isn’t a ton of shared history between the two teams, though some bad blood surfaced in June when Snell hit Harper with a pitch, fracturing the outfielder’s thumb and sending Harper to the injured list for two months.
Who is your pick to win this battle of the Nola brothers, and battle of the NL underdogs?
(poll link for app users)
Vegas odds has this series as a coin flip. You have to give SD a slight edge because of homefield. It’s going to be a battle. Love it.
Home field didn’t help the dodgers or the braves
They both won one at home. But they also both lost one at home. So I get your point.
Didn’t help the Cardinals or Mets either.
I went with the Padres. Sorry VonPurpleHays :-). I’ve simply been picking based on who are the better teams, but as this postseason shows, the favorites don’t always win. Sometimes rarely! The Phillies, however, are playing well, so wouldn’t surprise me at all if they win.
Braves))
Wow ! Your handle. Rotflmao. You can’t be a Braves fan.
I for one don’t care. Baseball playoffs have been thinned out like a bald man with a comb over.
I tried to watch 2 playoff games this weekend on a major Direct TV channel & both games were broadcast in Sanish…WTF?
Curly with metaphorical combover issues. Too funny
Nola and Wheeler will horse the Phils to victory plus Harper on a mission in series.
I would take Musgrove and Darvish in those matchups.
Interesting. I’d take Wheeler and Nola. But when you add Snell and Suarez, I favor SD.
I’ve watched those two shutdown the Mets every time they pitch. I went to a Wheeler game when he was with the Mets and he walked like 7 and couldn’t find the strike zone. I know he isn’t even close to the same pitcher but it’s always in the back of my head. Don’t get me wrong I would take all four pitchers.
I wouldn’t matter if any of these teams win. Most important thing is the Dodgers are out (thank you Padres) and both deserve to be where they are. I think the Padres will win because I think their bullpen is better just like the defence as both have a strong rotation and offence. Here is too a great 7 game series and I am sure the best team will win. Screw MLB, let’s go small ball and smaller market teams!
I concur with your sentiment regarding the Dodgers. I also concur with your assessment of the Padres D. They can prevent runs and take away hits with the best of them. Put them in Citizens Bandbox and the hits get boarder to find.
There isn’t a “write-in” option on the poll??
Every year since 2016, the team that knocked the Dodgers out of the postseason has won the World Series.
So, Padres?
The Astros are going to storm through to win the World Series.
hoping so
C) Not the best team.
I gotta go Padres, Bob Melvin got the experience and they got a good decent players that were able to handle the Dodgers, but like always baseball can sometimes be a dice roll.
Phils-Guards WS.
Mmm I don’t know about that.
Yes Goodson Networks.
Phillies. IMO Atlanta was a tougher opponent than LAD and SD were/are, and Phillies have a bit more momemtum at the moment.
The Padres have a bit of momentum on their side right now too..
Yes. Less IMO.
Padres are 5-2 in the postseason
They’ve already taken out two 100 win teams
They’ve played 5 road games to only 2 at home
And you’re talking about the Phillies momentum?
Phillies are 5-1 in the postseason and beat the defending WS champs…easily.
They took out two heavily favored division champs
They have played 4 road games and only 2 at home in the postseason. They finished the regular season and started the post season with 14 away games over a 17 stretch.
And you want to discredit any Phillies momentum?
The Cardinals weren’t exactly “favored” or “great” mainly because offensive production faded out and their bullpen was a bit shaky coming into wildcard, there main face was basically Albert Pujols.
Can you point to a preponderance of “experts” who picked the Phillies? I doubt it. I looked at a great many predictions prior to the series and found less than a handful that gave the Phillies a chance. Most pointed to the Cards home record and better bullpen. I used the term heavily favored because of that. That was and is my point. Virtually no one (in that line of work) picked the Phillies to sweep and even fewer picked the Phillies to manhandle the Braves.
The Dodgers are better then the Braves. The Padres have definitely had the tougher road.
I think the Braves were built better for the postseason than the Dodgers, but it didn’t really show.
Strider was hurt, and Morton literally got knocked out of his start.
The Padres endured legit starts from Urias, Kershaw and Anderson.
Moving on to the actually Philly vs. SD matchup the Phillies bullpen IMO is a huge liability. Only one off day the entire series means you need more bullpen depth than previous years.
No way. I’m shocked that Dodgers team won 111 games with that lineup. In fact, I’m shocked a team with that lineup was above .500. Certainly never looked that great when we faced them.
Manfred is praying the 5 vs 6 seed NLCS is not going to be a future trend. A 5 day layoff is insane. Would never happen, but the bye teams could use some round Robin type games in the meantime
I mean it’s one day off longer than normal. I think people are making too much of the days off. I think it’s more of the short series craziness. Anything can happen in a short series. I wouldn’t be opposed to the Divisional Series also being a best of 7.
@amk1920 Try 7 and 8 seeds. When baseball expands to 32 teams, 4 divisions in each league, and 8 playoff teams from each league. We will graduate from 40% of all teams making the playoffs to 50% of all teams. If a team can play 500 plus ball, has a couple of stud SP’s and streaky long ball hitters, they are a force to be reckoned with in the future of MLB playoffs.
I’d rather watch Padres-Phillies than Dodgers-Mets.
And everyone else is glad the Braves got destroyed.
Especially certain bitter, jealous Mets fans.
OMG I’m so tired of hearing people whine about the layoff. Get over it. If your team can’t take a few days off and still win they don’t deserve the trophy.
That’s why they play the game. You get to the playoffs and anything can happen. This has been a great postseason so far and regardless of who ends up in the Series, I’ll drink a beer(s) and watch…
How many less WS titles would the Yankees have if 40% of the teams made the playoffs prior to division play as they do now? They were winning a 10 team league and going straight to the WS. If all those years they had to get through 2 playoff rounds to get to the WS, they would have lost some. I’m not a Yankee fan, but just wondering for all of baseball, if the 27 titles were only 10, would baseball have lost something special.
Since things are pretty hellish in Philly with rampant crime, etc. I’m sure that the powers that be at MLB are hoping for a San Diego win.
Is the fix in?
LA, New York, Atlanta and St. Louis aren’t exactly crime-free either. You’re just hating on Philly.
I don’t know, man. Those videos of Kensington are hellish
Philadelphia is not even in the top 30 in crime rate per capita. St Louis is the worst. Has been for quote a while.
worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-vi…
That’s because they don’t prosecute crime, report crime or even show up to stop it.
Milwaukee and even Salt Lake City have more violent crime per capita than Philadelphia.
Look at these posts. Why are so many cities crime ridden? Ps forgot Baltimore and Minneapolis etc
As far as long term trends crime is still as low as it’s been in 30 years. Crime is only up relative to when things were shutdown from Covid. Fear mongering about crime and immigration is just a old tactic to scare people into voting for austerity measures and bloated budgets for law enforcement.
Phillies. All of this is more guess work than prediction because anyone can beat anyone in a single series. I say Phillies just cuz I love the irony of that huge battle between NY and Atlanta now being insignificant. All said and done, they’re gone and the Phillies are still here.
Even Keith Hernandez stated he’s rooting for the Phillies now. This postseason defies all logic.
Von Wins
Well said Cosmo2, unlike the regular season where generally skill and talent prevail….the playoffs are a crapshoot where the hottest team not the best team wins….
It’s that way in all major sports except for the NBA where the best team does usually win the championship….but in all other major sports it goes to the hottest team not the best team.
Nobody had the Guardians vs Phillies in the WS unless they are homers of those 2 teams. Just as Cosmo2 posted, it is ironic that the Phillies are advancing after all the hype of the NYM vs ATL battle….
Anything can and usually does happen in the MLB playoffs….you could literally put a 73 win team in the playoffs using a play-in and if they get hot they can win it all….
Every few years, there seems to be a team that just rides into the postseason at the right time, and that carries them to a World Series victory. Going into the postseason this year, I thought that was the Phillies, and I’m sticking with that.
Duffy’s spot on. Some years you are just annointed.
The Braves weren’t the best team last year. They had some guys get crazy hot, and some of their opponents had some obstacles that put them at a disadvantage.
The winner of the NLCS is the ALCS champion.
People said the same last year when the 88 win Braves upset the 100+ win Dodgers.
Using the former Tigers system, Nick Castellanos of the Phillies is the only player on either team who ever played for Detroit. I’ll call that advantage Philadelphia.
That’s said, I can certainly see that being considered an advantage for the Padres.
Either way, GO GUARDIANS!
Phillies are in a mission. Sure it’s just a hunch. Would be great to see a Guardians Phillies series. Has a team ever made the WS in their inaugural season? Yes I know it doesn’t count as it’s just a “rebadging” but an interesting side note anyways.
The Padres are just happy to be there, on the other hand the Phillies knew they were going to be there. The Phillies have the magic. The Phillies in 5.
I hope you’re right, but this Padres team has some magic going too. The two hottest teams going right now.
The Padres have also beaten the Dodgers. Doubtful they are scared of anyone from here on out. As of Saturday night the Padres fully expect they can beat anyone now. You need that attitude if you’re going all the way.
The Fightins!
Spacemen vs. Dads
I beg to differ on the Padres just happy to be there. They to were picked to go deep into the playoffs. This team has talent and yes, have gotten hot at just the right time. Now will that be enough…we shall see. Waiting on the other side of this is a youngGuardians team that has also gotten hot and a Houston team that is not just gonna roll over…
Neither side should be in the NLCS, because there should not be 2nd and 3rd wildcards, period. Baseball has been cheapened at the expense of allowing 40% of teams a chance to get to the post season. It is a farce and a joke. The 162 game season is no longer the test, just get a 2nd or 3rd wildcard and you have a chance to go the World Series.
I’ve seen this type of comment a lot the last couple of days and I just don’t get it. Based on this logic, all MLB results since 1969 are bogus. Teams have been in divisions and playing unbalanced schedules for over 50 years. The regular season NL or AL wins leader has failed to advance to the World Series in many, many seasons.
Face it. Unless all teams play the same schedule, the number of wins during the regular season doesn’t necessarily identify the “best” team. This is especially true since the introduction of interleague play, where, for NL teams, getting to play the AL East instead of the AL Central often played a big role in who gets the wildcard.
@wes_r
Then there is no reason to play 162 any longer, shorten the season, create more wildcards, let more teams into playoffs, it’s already 40%. of teams making it, it’s cheap.
Go and have a look at the KBO as an example and what they do with the wildcard, it’s just an example. The team that comes 5th plays a wildcard game best of 3. However, the team that comes 5th goes into that wildcard game down 1-0 automatically. The fact is, creating more wildcards is just making the game ‘softer’. There is not much of a big advantage winning your division now. Furthermore, the teams that go into the wildcard series play 3 games as opposed to 1 previously, winning that series and then going into another creates a thing called momentum. Manfred is ruining baseball, the rest period is a total joke, hitters that are locked in go take BP or live BP, it’s garbage. There’s no coincidence the teams that rested are out, and even the Dodgers bats were stone cold-fact. There are many that just do not understand that sitting on your bum as a hitter does not aid anything. Manfred has no clue.
Then the better teams don’t win if they can’t beat the wild card teams when it matters.
So we should have only 4-6 teams then? Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Orioles, Red Sox and Braves? Only big market teams. You just want the other teams in there to beat on?
@el rey
The teams that come first in their division plus one wildcard from Al & NL. You tell me why after 162 games that other sides should make the post season. Shorten the season then, don’t play 162, and let .teams who go 82-80 make the post season, there’s not much difference with 82-80 and 87-75, if you win your division with that then good luck, at least you won your division. You can talk about schedules with 162, but that’s the way it is. Some divisions are stronger than others, this is a fact, but they are all pro MLB players trying to win games, sure there is disparity with what teams can spend, but whose fault is that? MLB.
This sort of thing happens in football too, the round ball game, Go and have a look at eg Manchester City and what they spend on players. Imagine if there was a limit each team could spend each year, maybe that would balance everything out, but that’s never going to happen. What I call ridiculous wages and contracts for some is the norm.
At a time of the season you want to be playing, you get to sit around taking BP instead of playing, this sort of thing affects hitters. Manfred is ruining baseball, and with his play off format has ruined baseball. The old system was better, the wildcard should be a one game shootout as it was before.
I have yet to see one player complain about too much down-time. Those extra few days can be critical in letting your body heal a bit after going thru a rigorous season. It’s a luxury to have that bye. Also sets up your starting rotation and rests your bullpen. None of what you’re saying makes any sense.(And FWIW cheer for American League clubs then because all those remaining are division winners as all the wild cards are eliminated. That should make you happy.)
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Go and ask Pedro Martinez, a pitcher, or Frank Thomas or David Ortiz, and any professional hitter that’s commented on the matter so far “whether it makes sense”. There’s no coincidence the teams that came 1st were ice cold with the bat. The Astros should have also been down by 1 in GM1-fact, except for Servais and his ‘analytics’ left on left move with Alvarez..
“Heal” from what? You lose momentum for sitting for 5 days.
5 days is too much, a few days maybe, but not 5. These guys are primed to play. One day you can be seeing the ball big, you sit for 5 days doing nothing but take BP, it does nothing to aid your hitting mechanics and swing, or reading pitches coming out of the hand which is the key to good hitting.
I agree with the crime dog….back in the day the best teams were almost assured to win the WS….play hard all year and get rewarded in the end….nowadays you can literally put a 75 or 82 win team in the playoffs and they can win it all….
It definitely waters down the playoffs….now let this sink in….the Brewers finished 1 game behind the Phillies and were without Peralta nearly all season….with him they almost assuredly make up 2 maybe 3 games….essentially knocking the Phillies out of the playoffs….so the 7th best team in the NL has a chance to win the WS….
I think it should be the 6 division winners and the best WC team in each league….not the top 3 WC teams in each league….because not much separates team 6 from team 7 or even team 8 in most cases and what if team 7 or team 8 were without stars for most of the season like my Brewers example….
Ashby has filthy stuff and I can see him being a strong #2 some day but it’s not today….he was roughed up this past season so a healthy Peralta almost assures them of the 6th or even the 5th seed….
All teams have to deal with injuries man. It’s how your team responds to those injuries and the depth available at that position. The Phillies were without Bryce Harper for most of the summer.
Peralta looks at Harper and asks:
You got to play?
If we can just get rid of the Astros baseball will have a streak of 9 years with 9 unique champions. That’s amazing
Red Sox 6gms
Giants 7game classic top 20 all time imo
Royals 5 games
Cubs 7 game classic. *I’m biased so easily top 3
Dodgers*(should’ve been) 7 game classic ruined by cheating
Red Sox 5 game manslaughter of the Dodgers
Nats 7 game classic in my top 20
Dodgers decent 6 game series for the shortened season
Braves another great series.
2022 TBD Anyone but the Astros and Yankees. I still want the Gerrit Cole contract to be the modern day Jason Giambi deal. Only 9 years and no WS Appearances. I’m all for the Spiders tonight.
I went with Padres but I honestly think either could win. I just think the Phillies are riding more of a streak and Padres have straight up talent.
“Padres have straight up talent”
This quote is true for both teams. There’s so much talent and star power on both teams, and in my opinion, both teams underperformed during the regular season. Both teams should have had 90+ wins in my eyes. There were stretches during the season where each team got hot, but neither was consistent. It’s nice to see them hit their stride in the playoffs.
I think the Padres have better pitching but the Phillies have truly surprised me.
Von do you think the Phillies would have turned it around just the same under Giardi as they did Thompsen?? Or was Thompsen a true difference maker this season? It’s hard to picture this same group of players continuing to under-perform by that much all season long. Maybe there was a completely different factor.
Goooooo Padres!!!!!
Well it ain’t going to be the Soxs or the Cubs, so I will go with the Friars and hope they win it all…
This is a draw for me but if I have to choose I go with Padres. I’m going more by what they’re not doing:
The Phillies offense is hitting on all 9 cylinders and their pitch shut down the braves. Defense has begun to falter.
The Padres pitching is slightly, very slightly better. Credit Dodger pitching but the offense isn’t clicking like it could be. That’s why I’m picking them. They beat the Dodgers doing the little things.
Two teams that busted tail to get where they are, and were not favored by any means to be where they are in the NLCS. Both deserve to be NL champs because of who they took out. At this point it’s a toss up. Gonna be fun to watch.
At the start of the postseason I picked the Phillies and Mariners for the world series. 2 dark houses. Now that the M’s choked (especially in Game 1) I want either the Friars/Phillies vs the Spiders.
Mike “He hit *that* before Trevor Bauer did” Clevenger and Blake Snell are going to be the difference makers. If they show up and suck, the Padres lose.
As long as the pitcher Nola doesn’t break his hand punching a locker after giving up a hit to catcher Nola, I’m guessing this series is going to six games.
Phillies have a slightly better team than the Padres, and their postseason numbers are better too. However the best team, as we all know, doesn’t always win. I think it’s also interesting to point out that since 2019, the Phillies are 7-3 at PETCO Park, while the Padres are 5-4 at Citizens Bank Park.
I agree that the best team doesn’t always win….in fact I preach that it rarely happens that way in the MLB playoffs….I mean how many upsets do we see each year in the MLB playoffs? It’s unreal some years.
But I disagree that the Phillies are the better team….I think SD is better than Philly but to each their own….
This is one of those cases where I like both teams, so rooting is problematic. There are some series where I wish both could lose, but this isn’t one of them.
I do want to make one peripheral observation though.
When Bryce Harper was a teenager in the minors, he blew a kiss at the pitcher after homering off him. The press made a huge deal out of it, and Bryce was labelled an arrogant punk, a label that has stuck through the years in some minds, no matter how much he’s done since to show that he’s a class act, and a worthy All-Star and 2-time MVP.
In the previous game of the Yankees-Guardians series, Josh Naylor, after homering off Gerrit Cole, a 5-time All-Star pitcher, ran around the bases doing a clownish rock-the-baby gesture while shouting obscenities. And did any of the same sportswriters bag on Naylor like they did on Harper, calling him an unsportsmanlike punk? Did any of the fans? Nope.
If Naylor gets a pass for that clown show, fans need to retire the tired BS about Harper being a bad guy for something he did as a teenager. My two cents.