Brandon Nimmo is heading into free agency on a high note, having just had arguably the best season of his career. He hit 16 home runs in 151 games and produced an overall batting line of .274/.367/.433. That production was 34% better than the league average hitter, as measured by wRC+. When combined with some strong work in the outfield, he produced 5.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, eclipsing his previous high of 4.8.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently spoke to Scott Boras, who is Nimmo’s agent, with Boras highlighting that this winter’s free agent class is low on impact center fielders and leadoff hitters. Looking at the list of available free agents, Boras has a point. Aaron Judge played some center this year but is primarily a right fielder. Beyond him and Nimmo, the other options are mostly bench/depth types, with the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier perhaps the only thing approaching a plausible regular up the middle.
Sherman compares Nimmo to Starling Marte and the $78MM contract he got from the Mets but opines that Nimmo has a chance to double that. There are certainly reasons to think free agency will be kinder to Nimmo than it was to Marte, with age being a significant separator. Marte was 33 years old at the time his deal was signed, whereas Nimmo won’t turn 30 until March. Given that three-year gap, Nimmo could try to try to push for a lengthier deal than the four years that Marte secured. Marte was coming off a remarkably similar walk year, as he posted a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR in 2021. He didn’t have a qualifying offer attached since he was traded midseason, something Nimmo will be saddled with. But there won’t be a lockout this winter to complicate matters and the CBT barriers have all moved higher since then. Combining those factors with the fact that teams are further removed from pandemic losses and the spending environment might be generally more robust than it was in November of 2021, when Marte was signed.
Whether the Mets will be in the Nimmo sweepstakes remains to be seen, but there is an argument to be made for them letting him walk. They could theoretically slide Marte over to center field and focus their resources on a pitching staff that is set for a huge amount of turnover. The Mets have about a dozen hurlers who could reach the open market in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of some options and opt-outs. Of course, the biggest elephant in the room is Jacob deGrom, who has the ability to opt out of the remainder of his contract in a few weeks. deGrom has been clear about his intention to trigger that opt out, even while he was dealing with the uncertainty of his injured shoulder earlier this year.
Once he reaches free agency, his market will be a difficult one to predict. He has been one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy but hasn’t managed a full season since 2019. The pandemic limited him to just 12 starts in 2020 and then injuries kept him at 15 starts last year and 11 here in 2022. He’s still been excellent when on the mound though, posting a 2.05 ERA over 224 1/3 innings in that three-year stretch, along with a 42.1% ground ball rate, 42.4% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate.
Given his excellent quality but diminished quantity in recent years, there is likely to be a wide variance in how different teams will value his potential contributions going forward. For his part, it’s possible that deGrom isn’t particularly focused on strictly maximizing his earnings, with Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic reporting that the righty will also be looking for comfort, preferring to be closer to his Florida home.
It might be difficult for deGrom to get exactly what he wants in that regard, as the two clubs based in his home state aren’t big spenders. The Marlins have been clearing their payroll in the recent past and then focused on adding offense when they finally did make some recent additions. Jorge Soler’s $15MM salary will be the largest contract on the books next year and it would certainly come as a shock to see them more than double that figure to land deGrom, especially when they have so much starting pitching that they are planning to use it to trade for bats. The Rays have never been huge players in free agency and have a massive 19-player arbitration class. That’s likely going to lead them down a path of making tough cuts around the fringes of their roster, even without adding a marquee free agent expenditure.
Moving outside the state, the nearest team to Florida can be found in Atlanta. They have also been the destination of a pitcher with similar geographic preferences, as Charlie Morton continues to re-up with the club in order to be near his own Florida home. deGrom would surely be a welcome addition to any club from a pure baseball perspective, but there are reasons to think Atlanta isn’t a perfect fit. In addition to Morton, the club also has Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider penciled into their rotation for next year. Jake Odorizzi will likely exercise his player option and take a spot at the back end, something the club surely anticipated when they traded for him at the deadline.
Adding deGrom and then trading Odorizzi would be an attractive way to get around the crowded rotation, though that would come with financial complications. Atlanta ran out a franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $178MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, way beyond the previous high of $131MM from the year before. They already have about $154MM committed for next year, without factoring in arbitration raises for players like Fried. Whatever budget they have left over might need to be earmarked for shortstop, since Dansby Swanson is slated for free agency. Even if the club is willing to let Swanson walk and stick with Vaughn Grissom at short, despite Grissom having only 41 games played above Double-A, signing deGrom would require the club to stretch it’s financial comfort zone even farther.
If deGrom considers Texas to be comfortably close to Florida, there would be a sensible fit on the Rangers. The club was very aggressive in free agency a year ago but still had another disappointing campaign in terms of results. They reportedly plan on being aggressive yet again this winter, with a stronger focus on starting pitching this time around. However, the Rangers arguably only have two rotation spots spoken for, with Jon Gray and Dane Dunning the only ones who can be reliably counted on. It might be wiser of them to spread their money around to multiple pitchers as opposed to focusing on one elite arm like deGrom, even if they succeed in re-signing Martín Pérez. It’s also unknown how deGrom’s reported desire to be near his family would be balanced against a natural desire to suit up for a surefire competitor.
Of course, the Mets will surely hope to overcome whatever obstacles come up this winter and bring deGrom back to Queens, but they will also have other matters to attend to. Beyond Nimmo and deGrom, it will be a fascinating offseason for the Mets, as their other free agents or potential free agents are Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Daniel Vogelbach, John Curtiss, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Naquin, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams. It’s anyone’s guess what the roster looks like a few months from now, but it seems there will at least be continuity off the field. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that both manager Buck Showalter and general manager Billy Eppler are secure in their respective jobs. It was the first season with the Mets for both, as Eppler was hired in November of last year and he then brought Showalter aboard during the lockout. Despite a disappointing playoff loss to end the campaign, the Mets still went 101-61, their best record since 1986. They will look to repeat or top that performance in 2023, though the first order of business will be filling the large number of holes on the roster that are about to open.
Inside Out
Joel Sherman must be working for Boras now if he thinks Nimmo will double Marte deal. Nimmo will at best get 5 years $100 million from a team who will regret it in years one, two, three, four, and five.
allweatherfan
A team desperate for a CF could reach a panic mode and pay him more than you expect. Happens all the time.
johnnymac09
@fffbbb hope you don’t maintain your own finances
Deadguy
Dexter Fowler type money for what? Remains to be seen
John Kappel
78 million doubled comes to $156. You’re saying that you do not think he could get $156 million over 6 years? For one of the only two CF on the market who just put up an over 5 WAR season and will not be 35 until 2028? That seems completely reasonable. that’s only 26 million a season.
Sunday Lasagna
But can Nimmo’s skills hold up through his age 35 season? How many CF’s do? Nimmo is not a well thought out investment for any team at 6 years and $156M. He doesn’t have the power to transition to a corner, his speed on defense will wane.
SamtheMan!
I wouldn’t touch Nimmo at that price.
Realistically anything over the Marte deal is too much for me. He probably will eclipse that and whatever team will have regrets sooner rather than later.
MuleorAstroMule
The question of if his skills can hold up is irrelevant. There is a limited talent pool of MLB capable players. Nimmo is one of the better ones available. Teams with money will accept a dud year or two at the end of his contract for the production he’ll provide on the front end. Especially considering how the OF FA market is a wasteland outside of Judge and Nimmo.
Cosmo2
Nimmo’s skills as an on-base % guy should age very well. He will likely have to move to a corner within a few years though. He’s definitely worth a 100 million plus investment.
MarlinsFanBase
Nimmo will get about a 6 or 7 year deal period. He’ll very likely get in the neighborhood of $150 million.
While I have consistently made it clear that I personally don’t think he’s a good player, I do know the economics of the game and the power of hype and the ratings he’s gotten playing in NY. The fact that people make so much of his OBP and overvalue it considering his weaknesses in every other aspect of his game, will make him that money. The only debate here is whether someone thinks he’s worth it.
Will Nimmo make about $150+/- for about 6 or 7 years? Almost certainly yes.
If the questions is about whether he’s worth it, then I’m in the side of saying no. And I’ll even say that whoever does it will regret it after two seasons. I’m hoping that Kim Ng isn’t the sucker.
Now if there is a Mets player I’m all for paying about $150 million over about 6 or 7 years for, it’s Edwin Diaz because we absolutely are desperate for a Closer.
MarlinsFanBase
@SamtheMan
One thing of note about the Marte deal is that the Mets had to overpay in AAV along with giving the extra year because he was leaning toward a return to the Marlins at the price they offered…but the sticking point being that 4th year, which the Marlins didn’t want to give. Marte is an overpay. However, as cited in the article about age favoring Nimmo and the overvaluing of his one fortunate stat that pitchers struggling with the strikezone give him, that will get him about double Marte’s numbers in dollars and 2 or 3 extra years. That’s the reality whether any of us think it’s smart or not. All you can do is like me, and hope that your team isn’t the sucker that goes for it.
MarlinsFanBase
“…the OF FA market is a wasteland outside of Judge.”
There I corrected it for you.
SamtheMan!
He will not get that much money. Let’s stop the NY slant….
Cosmo2
It’s not NY slant. He put up 5 bWAR this year and plays CF. He’s getting more than 100 million.
justkidding
Couldn’t agree with everything you say about Nimmo more. Someone is going to pay him and it won’t end well.
sfes
One of the best leadoff hitters in the game
SamtheMan!
That was @ marlinsfanbase saying he’s getting double what Marte did.
MarlinsFanBase
@SamtheMan!
The thing is I’m a Marlins fan and very anti-big market (which includes the Mets). I would never push a NY slant, especially since I bash it all the time…specifically the Mets Hyperbole thing since Ron Darling mentioned it a couple of years ago while doing a segment on MLB Network.
Whether we think it’s stupid or not, Nimmo will be getting about double what Marte got in total…not so much due to AAV, but because he’ll have 2 or 3 more years added to it.
I think you’re misunderstanding my statement.
Will Nimmo make the money? Almost likely yes.
Is he worth it? To me…No. Not even close to worth it.
I hope I clarified that so I’m not tied to any NY slant.
MarlinsFanBase
@sfes LOL.
mookie1
@MFB
Still with the “not a good player”? I absolutely agree that he isn’t worth the contract he will get, but he is at minimum a very good player. You seem to make intelligent posts about most other topics, but you can’t seem to be objective about Nimmo. He obviously must have done something to you personally.
kmk1986
It’s called an opinion. No it’s not considered not intelligent if he doesn’t agree with you and there’s plenty of people that feel the same about nimmo $26 a year he better carry a team for a certain amount of time
Cosmo2
The issue isn’t amount. The issue is that some fans criminally underrate Nimmo because they refuse to understand that OBP matters. He’s a very good player. Worth 26 milllion per for five years? That’s debatable.
kmk1986
Because he’s not a star man 26 a year should be star status but I guess that only gets u above avg nimmo. He’s had ok seasons nothing to say wow I want nimmo on my team
kmk1986
Like people of said it’s not just 1 stat that determines salary it’s all around stats ya his obp is above league but his other numbers r mediocre. Marco Scutaro type numbers with a little more thump
Cosmo2
If 5 WAR doesn’t say “wow” to you you’re not getting any of this. 26 million may be too much but you are way underrating him.
Cosmo2
5 WAR. How about that. He hits homers he does other stuff. I’m sorry but the “one stat” narrative is just dumb. He gets on base, he avoids outs, the most important thing a hitter can do.
MuleorAstroMule
Nimmo might be a good fit for the Marlins, honestly. Their stadium saps power so much that looking for offensive production in other places might be the way to go (i.e. OBP). It’d be similar to the Royals approach a few years back of eschewing power for high contact, speed guys.
MuleorAstroMule
In the past three years Nimmo has put up a total of 10.3 fWAR. This makes him the 21st most productive offensive player over that span. He’s good. He’s not flashy, but he’s good.
Cosmo2
I agree with what you’re saying but I just want to add that Nimmo has power. Quite a bit. 16 homers, 30 doubles and 7 triples. The idea that he is one dimensional is absurd.
mookie1
#kmk1986
You seemed to have missed where I said he absolutely will NOT be worth the contract he will get. He isn’t a superstar, but to say Nimmo isn’t a good player is the equivalent of having the opinion that the earth is flat.
put it in the books
Only $26m per season?
talking baseball
ONLY ?!?!
MarlinsFanBase
I love it. Yeah, the Mets should pay $30 million a year for 10 years on Nimmo. I’d celebrate in the streets if they did that.
kmk1986
He only has put up 1 year of those numbers it’s an unknown risk with no track record. Your foolish to think that nimmo is gonna be worth anymore than $26 million that is outrageous. Thank god you don’t run a team
Cosmo2
Nimmo has a very good track record. He’s had some injuries. But he’s put up a lot of value despite that. Again, the man has quite a track record. Fans are too obsessed with injury history. He’s easily worth 6/120
kmk1986
No one said anything about injuries and injuries r a factor I bet that hurts some springer value his injury history
Cosmo2
Of course injuries will affect value a bit but you did bring up injury when you mentioned track record. Otherwise what did you mean? He’s had several very good seasons not just one.
LordD99
He will *at minimum* get 5 years $100 million.
.
Possibly 10 years 200 though.
LordD99
He won’t get that! I can see whatever deal he signs being north of $100MM.
scottbour
Agreed, Nikki will get 5 for $85 at most. Sherman is crazy and Boras is greedy.
scottbour
Agreed, Nikki will get 5 for $85 at most. Sherman is crazy and Boras is greedy..
Al Hirschen
Sign Judge put him in Center field and hit him #3 let Degrom go and sign Verlander
Balk
Degrom to the Giants
Sunday Lasagna
Farhan doesn’t strike me as a guy that invests in aging, often injured, highly expensive players……deGrom meant almost nothing to the Mets this year. He only made 11 starts, Mets went 6-5 in those starts, ERA of 3.08, ERA+ 126……he will be 35 next year. There are only so many Verlanders and deGrom is not the durable type. Teams looking at deGrom are using hope as a strategy.
dshires4
New York Giants*. He’ll replace Jones.
jints1
Do u mean Sheldon Jones?
Balk
Fair enough and agree now that you mention his age. But the Giants could use him as a trade deadline signing, and use him like Rodon. But what do I know. Lol
DaOldDerbyBastard
That’s not really closer to Florida and also not a contender.
EasternLeagueVeteran
DeGrom
to the
Yankees
2023!
EasternLeagueVeteran
The Braves will be in it in name only. They gave quality young starting pitching and probably have more stashed in Gwinnett. As much as DeGrom would love to pitch there or Miami or Tampa, there just isn’t an opening on any of their staffs AT THE MONEY DeGrom would be walking away from. His wife may not like New York but she wouldn’t stupidly to ask him to take a pay cut.
Canosucks
The loss lays directly at the feet of Eppler; a complete moron. All 3 of his DH acquisitions didn’t even get 1 hit in the 3 game series; 1 wasn’t active who gets a pass, btw Naquin who had the best record against Darvish was not put on the PS roster but Eppler put on Ruf who batted 10 for 66 as a Met, .152 Average and no home runs! JD Davis tore the cover off the ball with the Giants along with 3 pitchers the Giants are calling Farhan’s heist of Eppler.
Givens was a joke. Cohen can spend a billion dollars but with Eppler at the helm Braves fans are laughing. Cohen just rewarded Eppler with more say because his ego like Eppers will not allow them to admit they made a mistake. Dark days ahead for the Mets who will be lucky to win 85 games next year when everyone bolts for free agency.
VonPurpleHayes
Most trade deadline bats did squat in the 2nd half. Even Soto did pretty much nothing until the playoffs. So I can’t really fault Eppler. The Mets stars laid an egg. End of story.
Canosucks
Your right end of story with Eppler because he sucked with the Angels who fired him and he sucked with the Mets who hired him. Eppler brought in Canha who was also hit-less in the series and Givens who sucked and gave up 2 runs.
All the NY sports writers said the same thing.
Lowly Rodriquez who Eppler brought in, castaway from the Yanks, lost 4 games in relief, eaisly the difference in the division.
When questioned by NY media at the deadline about getting a lefty arm Eppler said I am not ready to give up on Lowly Rodriquez or translated my ego wont let me admit a mistake.
padam
You realize he brought in Marte, Bassett, and Escobar. Wouldn’t say he sucks and tell me a GM that was successful under Moreno for the last couple of decades.
dlw0906
Von, I would agree with you. Those last two weekends of the season the Mets biggest names for the most part came up empty. I think they put too much stock in Scherzer and DeGrom being this dominating 1-2 punch but once Atlanta teed off on first Max and then Jake it took the team aback then they pressed and also left too many RISP. Aside from DeGrom the exact same thing happened against SD. They were overconfident in their starters dominating and couldn’t recover.
Smacky
As a Braves fan I’d like to note you can’t really get down on anyone running your favorite team when said team wins 101 regular season games. Baseball is weird. Playoff/ late season baseball is extra weird. It’s why it’s interesting. I mean there’s a pretty good chance that the NLCS is going to be the Padres vs the Phillies.
VonPurpleHayes
Agreed. The playoffs is about luck, getting hot at the right time, and staying focused under pressure. These factors are out of GMs hands. The FO did a fantastic job with the Mets, bringing them to 101 wins. The players themselves didn’t rise to the occasion when it mattered, but they fo have something to build uppm next season.
johnnymac09
You know Cohen is the one who signs off on Billy wants to do, right?
Jdt8312
Would rather not have Alvarez on the roster? That was the price for a bat. Then you have to pay that bat. Alvarez, Baty, and Vientos will al help us sign veteran players in their prime. If they were traded away for a bat, or two, there is still no guarantee that we would have moved on. With all the free agents on this roster, we need the young players.
Smacky
Like the entirety of their bullpen and starting pitching not named Scherzer? The Mets are screwed. This was their last best chance for awhile. There’s zero chance they have a better pitching staff next year than they did this year. Pitching is so scarce other teams are going to after their free agents – their whole bullpen is now free agents.
User 401527550
You don’t think they will bring in pitching? Zero chance is absurd. They spend money.
Smacky
Good thing he burned an option year on the Alvarez guy who throws bats really far.
Sunday Lasagna
No doubt the Marlins, Rays or Braves will make room for deGrom, just a matter of how much of a discount from full value deGrom is willing to accept. Braves are the gold standard in making team friendly deals, and those two Florida teams live off of smaller budgets than most. Or just take the most money where ever it is, buy a jet, build a Travolta landing strip right to the doorstep, and make a dozen starts a year
dirty617water
ATL is the favorites to sign deGrom. Went to school in Central Florida.
VonPurpleHayes
Means nothing.
dirty617water
He would be closer to home? Plenty of players take that into consideration.
dirty617water
He would be closer to home? Players take that into consideration when signing.
Canosucks
@dirty617water VonPurpleHayes is a contrarian, he posts against what ever someone else posts; that’s the way he rolls don’t try to figure it out
Samuel
Canosucks;
Many posters do that. I had to mute one earlier today after 2 years of ankle biting.
Von is the classiest poster on this site. No one is close. I’ve not seen him do what you wrote. If he has a different opinion he states it and moves on.
You may want to do some research.
VonPurpleHayes
Or maybe I just disagree with this take that we hear all the time. It may be a factor, buy it usually comes down to the best offer. Everyone swore Harper was going to the WC and he signed with Philly.
rct
ATL is not the favorite to sign deGrom. The article above does a great job of explaining why. $154 million committed already before Arb increases and one would think they’ll make a push to keep Swanson. Adding deGrom at (probably) $40+ million a year and pushing the payroll over $200 million seems way out of character for the Braves.
Remember, they played hardball with Freddie Freeman. You can blame his agent for the final outcome, but the fact that it even got to that point should tell you they’re not interested in adding anyone at what deGrom will command. Especially considering deGrom’s age and injuries.
If I had to guess, I’d say Dodgers. I wouldn’t read too much into the ‘close to home’ stuff. He’ll go where the money is. Dodgers have a ton coming off the books and can spend.
User 401527550
Atlanta is six hours from deland. Do you think he would drive home every day?
dirty617water
Atlanta are the favorites to sign deGrom. He went to college in Central Florida.
Sunday Lasagna
That would be good for the rest of MLB, as it might be the first mistake AA would have made in a while……he’s 35, he will want to eclipse Scherzers deal, so what are we talkin’ instead of 3 years 130M 43.3M per year, Jake would want 4 years, 180M, 45M per year? Why would the Braves do that?
Cosmo2
I think the point some are making is who the heck cares where he went to college? What could that possibly have to do with any of this? Now, the fact that he and his wife CURRENTLY LIVE very close to Atlanta may matter. But college? Who cares?
dirty617water
Bc he lives in DeLand… the same place he went to school. Do your research before you talk.
dirty617water
Bc the same place he went to school is also the same place he lives? Do some research there bud before you talk.
Cosmo2
I don’t need to research that, and I don’t need your permission to talk, bud… my point stands, bud. It doesn’t matter where he went to college it matters where he lives. If that’s the same place, again, who cares? If what matters is the location of his home, mentioning college is irrelevant whether they’re the same or not, bud.
mrkinsm
If he lives in DeLand then why would that make ATL the favorite? DeLand isn’t Macon. That’s still a 7 hour drive. So he’d probably be flying to his home from wherever he is playing, even ATL.
If any team were a favorite because of where he lays his head from October to February it would be Tampa.
The vast majority of ballplayers don’t live anywhere close to their home ballpark.
Cosmo2
It doesn’t at all make them the favorite. It maybe tilts the odds like a half a percent in Atlanta’s favor.
DaOldDerbyBastard
Try not to post the same thing multiple times.
User 401527550
His college was and is in his hometown where he grew up and lived.
rct
How are the Braves the favorite for deGrom? Where’s the money coming from? deGrom could have a house inside of Truist Park, but if the Braves can’t pony up $40+ million a year, he’s not going there.
VonPurpleHayes
rct nailed it. That’s my point as well. He very well may sign in Atlanta, but there’s no hometown discount. He’ll play for who pays him.
getrealgone2
Braves need to stay far away from Degrom.
dirty617water
No one is going to pay Nimmo that kind of money. He’s only had two seasons were he played almost the entire season.
Yankee Clipper
I was thinking the same thing. That seems like an incredible amount of money for Nimmo. Who would pay even close to $160MM for him? He’s got (-)3 DRS in CF. And although he is rated at 6 OOA, he’s not regarded as a premiere defender. He’s decent offensively, but he would have to be valued at the max $/WAR, unless someone is going to give him a 7-year deal.
I just don’t see it. I think he will be much, much closer to Marte’s deal.
dirty617water
Kiermaier has been healthier. I’d rather have him imo.
Cosmo2
Kiermeier has not been healthier.
User 401527550
Then you go get kiermaier because he isn’t worth half of what Nimmo is.
johnnymac09
Plus more years
mrkinsm
Your last sentence answered your question. If he gets near that figure it’s because of the length of the deal. He’s 3 years younger than Marte was when he signed.
MuleorAstroMule
Byron Buxton got $100M and we all know his track record when it comes to health.
dirty617water
I’d go off of Kiermaier’s contract extension with the rays.
User 401527550
Why? Kiermaier has no offensive value.
Cosmo2
Nimmo is miles better than Kiermeier.
Cosmo2
And hasn’t been injured nearly as much. Nimmo haters are an odd bunch.
dirty617water
I’d go off of Kiermaier’s contract extension with the rays. Wouldn’t give Nimmo more.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Buxton had far more potential than Nimmo. Guy has power, can steal bags, even though he hits .220 he had the potential for more. Nimmo is a singles guy who mostly only gets on base.
Cosmo2
Front offices aren’t like fans. They don’t consider a past with some injuries as a deal breaker and the analytics love Nimmo. Front offices love analytics so…. Injured part of the season or not he still puts up value.
Yankee Clipper
Cosmo2: What do you think he will sign for? Closer to Marte or double Marte?
Cosmo2
I’d say closer to double Marte. He’s younger so more years.
Yankee Clipper
Do you believe Mets will re-sign him? If not, where do you see him going? For that much money, I assume he will have very limited options.
Cosmo2
I’d like to think the Mets re-sign him but they’ve a lot to consider this off season. I’d actually think he’d have a lot of suitors as long as folks believe he can play CF. He’ll be at the very top of the OF market, so anyone looking for that.
fre5hwind
DeGrom will be interesting.
Slider_withcheese
The Mets won 101 games with deGrom only playing in 11. Is he a great pitcher? Yes. Are they going to be okay without him? Also yes..
SamtheMan!
The Mets need Degrom or another ace to make serious noise In The postseason next year.
They also NEED Diaz back and pitching like the absolute animal he was this year.
The window is short for that team.
johnnymac09
No it’s not a short window
Cosmo2
I mean, if they can build the team back up to 100 wins by spending then there is no window. They just do that every year and compete every year. Problem is, if there IS a window it might have just closed already.
JoeBrady
If they retain just their own players, they will be > $300M. That’s the equivalent of signing 15 $20M players, and filling in with minor leaguers. You can be signing guys at random and still be pretty good.
Cosmo2
I could easily see a team of 15 players @ 20 million each plus minor leaguers being terrible. A lot of bad deals out there.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
They had two aces and failed. It started with losing the division though.
put it in the books
Marte is a better hitter, better defender with an arm (Nimmo has no arm), is generally healthy, has much more power and steals bases which despite his speed, Nimmo is completely incapable of doing.
Samuel
put it in the books;
Marte has not stayed healthy in recent years. He hasn’t been able to play CF full time for 2-3 years now. It takes far too much out of a player over a season to cover that ground.
If the Mets are to use Marte in CF during 2023 they’ll have to have someone share the position with him. Kiermaier would work out fine defensively, Marte could play RF when he’s in CF. Kiermaier would be cheaper than Nimmo but nowhere near as good offensively. On the other hand, McNeil could be moved to the lead-off spot which is where he hits best.
Cosmo2
Nimmo is better than Marte.
Cosmo2
Look at OPS+. They were very close this year but generally Nimmo is higher
stretch123
Could you imagine what a DeGrom/Alcantara 1-2 punch would be like?? Lol
Anyway, as a Marlin fan, let’s just say MIA won’t even call him… I think he ends up signing with Houston or Atlanta. I lean Atlanta. Could also see him Re-upping with NYM.
getrealgone2
If the Marlins could hit they’d be one of the top teams in the NL.
ChipperChop
As a Braves fan I 100% agree. Depending on what the Marlins off-season looks like, they might scare me more in 2023 than the Mets or Phillies. If they can keep Jazz and Soler on the field and add a couple bats this off-season that will be a scary team with their pitching. NL East will be a dog fight.
getrealgone2
Also, a Braves fan. There were several games against the Fish this year that Miami would have won with better offense.
inkstainedscribe
The Marlins need to build an offense built for that cavern they play in. Speed, on-base, gap-to-gap hitters. The new rules may help offenses like that be more competitive. Even if they don’t, guys like Soler will always stink in that ballpark.
Canosucks
No way DeGrom goes back to the Mets
He will be a Brave for sure
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I’ve been saying Marlins for awhile now
Jean Matrac
People are going to be shocked by what Nimmo signs for.
Samuel
Considering how many innings deGrom has been able to pitch over the past 3 years (224) I’m not sure how any team can afford his payroll demands without basing the salary on innings pitched or starts. And even then I don’t know how a small market team such as the Marlins or Rays can afford him.
It’s not easy planning on a guy to be your ace, yet not knowing if he’ll throw even 75 innings the coming year. A team can buy 2 starters and a decent relief pitcher for less money.
BStrowman7
Small market can’t do Degrom.
Really the Dodgers are the best fit.
If they get him& he’s healthy—great they’ll probably win the WS.
If he’s not they’ll have pitching depth to be OK.
dlw0906
I think he winds up back in NY with the Mets or in LA with the Dodgers. Yes, its even farther from FLA but the Dodgers need SP and can blow him away with an offer that would make proxinity an afterthought.
Mikenmn
DeGrom is a great, but he’s a boutique purchase for only a few teams who can afford to rest him and make sure he’s available for the playoffs. You overpay, mightily, for the chance to run him out there in critical games. Fascinating decision.
Yankee Clipper
Yeah, and although this may be unpopular, I think deGrom is a superior arm to Scherzer, thus, I believe he can match or beat Scherzer’s AAV. He is younger, so perhaps he chooses longevity over max AAV, but he’s still 35.
His pool of candidate teams will surely be limited by his asking price though.
cleonswoboda
I think if the Yankees lose Judge,which is a possibility as he probably will end up somewhere in California, I can see them signing both deGrom and Nimmo along with Rizzo and maybe Arenado.. any 2 of that group signing with them is a good bet,though.
bhambrave
According to Cot’s, the Braves have a $6.25M buyout on Odorizzi. I have to think they’ll buy him out.
scottbour
Sherman is clueless, Nimmo is not getting anywhere near $160 million for 8 years . What a joke.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
I about fell out of my chair laughing at the Nimmo speculated numbers! That’s INSANE..To me, he’s a 4yr/80m with a couple option years at best..
Cosmo2
Fell out of your chair laughing? Ok. Maybe start breaking the Prozacs in half, see if that works better. Nimmo put up 5 bWAR this year. That may mean nothing to you but front offices notice that.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
He’s played 150 games in a season once in his career..is a constant injury waiting to happen, can’t steal a base, is maybe a slightly above average CF (when he’s not hurt), and you think he’s worth much more than than a guy like Marte? Look..I’m not trying to bag on him..but you and I both know that he’s much more likely to average 110 games a year than the 151 this year..and that makes the numbers mentioned in the article a MASSIVE overpay..Guarantee you if he gets anywhere near that amount, whoever pays it to him will be regretting it by year 3.
Cosmo2
He’s still very valuable in a half a season. He put up 5 WAR this year! He’ll be healthy enough. You are way underrating him and waaaay over estimating his capacity for future injury. He’s a better CFr right now than Marte and career wise a better hitter. He puts up more WAR value even with injuries.
AgeeHarrelsonJones
deGrom and Nimmo will both be overpaid this offseason. Neither will be signed by the Mets. As a Met fan for the past 50+ years, I am looking forward to the next 3 years.
First time in Met histoy with 400+ wins over a 4 year period (22-25), led by Buck, Max, Francisco, Jeff, Pete, and the kiddos, Alvarez, Vientos, and Baty. Cohen will bring in no more than 2 free agents this winter. Thats all they need.
Cap & Crunch
I think they will spend Big but get the gist of what your saying
No team in the MLB will be faced with a more complex offseason than the Mets this year. The Front office is going to need to roll up it’s sleeves and hunker down
I , as well, view Nimmo and DeGrom as prime overpays, who makes them is the Q
I think they’ll spend a good deal of money and def ink more than 2 free agents but they might chose the Cahna/Escobar range contracts instead of signing the 100+ mill types. Will be interesting too see the roster come next March
Hurricane Sandy
All us Mets fans love Nimmo but once he announced he hired the Boras Agency, I think most of us started waving goodbye because that man is about to be overpaid. He is an extremely solid player and impossible not to love, but this was basically his best year and I don’t see it getting much better than this. The only one of the Mets hyped free agents I see actually living up to his projected contract based on age/skill is Diaz.
Say Hey Now Kid
The smart move is probably to let DeGrom walk but im such a fan of his I hope they keep him
outinleftfield
DeGrom is coming to the Angels. 3/$112.5 million with 3 option years at $37.5 million each that vest if he has 500 IP in 2023-2025.
DaOldDerbyBastard
I can’t tell if you’re joking.
User 401527550
Why would he join the Angels for an under par? The only way he plays out there is for 4/$200+
Doug
Braves don’t need DeGrom. 5 years/$85 mil is the max I’d give Nimmo.
Cosmo2
For a player that just put up 5 bWAR?
jvent
Out of that group of our free agents i would sign Diaz, Ottavino, Trevor Williams and Maybe Bassitt and Walker let all the rest go. The Mets need more power I would try hard for Judge if not sign JD Mart and Josh Bell, than with what deGrom is asking they can sign Rodon and either Manaea or Eovaldi.
Cosmo2
JD Mart AND Bell? I don’t really think they need either of those but I suppose one could DH. But both?
User 401527550
They will have three rookies with power next season in Baty/Alvarez/Vientos. They don’t need a high salary power hitter.
mookie1
I’d rather the Mets try to sign Judge and Trea Turner for about the same annual amount that deGrom, Nimmo and Diaz will get.
jvent
3/5 of our starters are free agents, we have a club option on Carrasco for $14 mil ( which I wouldn’t resign him for that) and Scherzer and who would close ? If deGrom opts out for the $35 mil per years that he has left I wouldn’t resign him for the money he wants the Mets can sign 2 SP’s (Rodon, Manaea, Eovaldi) just to name a few. They def. have to resign Diaz and look for 2 power bats to put behind Alonso.
extreme113
Agree
bcjd
Wai, more than $78m for a guy who has played fewer than half the games in 4/6 seasons across his whole career? Am I reading his BB-Ref page right?
I’ve never heard of him before, but it looks like he has only played two whole seasons. He looks like he has talent, but no team is going to commit the AAV for his best years over the course of multiple years, since he doesn’t have the record to show it can be repeated. He could get a high AAV for 2 years maybe, but if he wants 4-5 years it’s going to be at a rate where a team can platoon him.
Cosmo2
Um, no. Nimmo is getting paid. Re-examine his value.
AgeeHarrelsonJones
Hmm. He’s not a platoon player. He is an on base machine who scored 100 runs this year. His defense improved significantly. He was a first round draft choice who proved the scouts right. He has not peaked it, and I suspect his best years will be 2-3 years down the road. I believe he will be overpaid given the market (dearth of true CFers) and will be sad to see him leave the Mets.
AgeeHarrelsonJones
I will take Judge or Trea plus Edwin
User 401527550
The Mets will resign Degrom, bassitt and Diaz. They will trade for one of Brewers stud starters. They will add to the bullpen. They have rookies Baty, Alvarez and Vientos on opening day roster. Not that hard of an off-season.
LFGMets (Metsin7)
Brandon Nimmo is a nice guy and a decent defender in center field but his offense is mediocre. I know his stats look nice to people who dont watch the team but hes the type of player that you didnt even realize he got a hit in the game. Hes a very “plain” player I guess. Hes nothing special, and when I think of special, I think of guys who make more than 60 million for a contract. He will show up and have a great attitude but I wouldn’t offer him more than 4 years at 10 million per year
Cosmo2
You’re ability to completely misunderstanding baseball is astounding. Look at Nimmo’s OPS+ numbers. Oh, wait, you don’t do stats. You develop these insanely absurd opinions by neglecting stats. Remind us again that you watch the games.
LFGMets (Metsin7)
@Cosmo2 Hits stats look nice for OPS+ because he walks alot and beat out some doubles for triples this year. I don’t believe in OPS+ because its park adjusted and I think thats a bit misleading. By OPS+ standards, Nolan Arenado was just above average in Colorado but on the Cardinals with the same stats, he looks like a superstar. The eye test tells you a lot, can’t just look at stats all the time
mookie1
How about regular OPS then? Nimmo was #13 among all outfielders, and he didn’t even have his usual OBP year. You can’t discount the walk portion of OPS either, because hits already are weighted higher than walks. I don’t think the Mets should sign him for $17-$20 million per for 4-7 years, but someone will because he’s a valuable player.
LFGMets (Metsin7)
@mookie1 Not saying hes not valuable. Im saying that hes not a game changer, hes a fill in piece. You dont pay fill in pieces over 60 million
Cosmo2
Yea that’s a fair point about OPS+