The Mariners have placed outfielder Jesse Winker on the 10-day injured list due to a neck issue, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter links). Fellow outfielder Taylor Trammell was recalled in a corresponding move. Shannon Drayer relays that Winker is likely done for the season but that Dylan Moore and Jarred Kelenic, both hit by pitches yesterday, should be okay. The Mariners subsequently announced the moves, describing Winker’s injury as a cervical disc bulge. His placement is retroactive to October 3.
It’s been a somewhat disappointing season for Winker, given that his results have fallen off from last year’s. However, he’s still been an above-average hitter for the season as a whole. With the Reds in 2021, Winker hit 24 home runs and produced a batting line of .305/.394/.556. That production was 47% better than league average by measure of wRC+. After coming to Seattle in an offseason trade, he’s hit 14 long balls and slashed .219/.344/.344. That’s obviously a big drop from last year but still good enough for a wRC+ of 109, or 9% above league average.
This IL placement is significant for a couple of reasons, including the timing. The M’s are about to begin the Wild Card series against the Blue Jays on Friday, the club’s first postseason appearance since 2001. Winker will now be officially unavailable for that series as well as a portion of the ALDS, should the Mariners survive that long.
There’s also the fact that the club’s outfield mix is banged up in a few other ways right now. The club also put Sam Haggerty on the IL yesterday, subtracting another useful member of the group. Julio Rodriguez just returned from his own IL stint due to back issues. As mentioned above, Kelenic and Moore were both hit by pitches last night and are sticking around, though it’s possible they may have some lingering soreness. That group, and Mitch Haniger, will now be joined by Trammell when the Mariners head to Toronto.
Oh no this sucks
“cough cough”
Honestly, I think it does. He is an OBP machine, specifically against RHP (.342 OBP vs. them this season), which I think could have been useful against the RHP-heavy Blue Jays. We don’t have enough quality LHH to face a team who only has quality RHP and no quality LHP.
I’m loving this matchup less and less as it gets closer. Down a weapon in Haggerty and a guy who could have gotten on base in Winker.
I love the Wink as a bounce back next year, but I think he needs to hit the reset button on this season.
Now throw out his defensive metrics and see what a drag he is on this team. Fine for a PH situation, but can’t afford for him to be in the lineup unless he is the DH.
Well yeah, there was no chance he was playing anything other than DH against Toronto so I think his defensive metrics are irrelevant here. I’m only arguing for his OBP and that him getting a start would have potentially allowed Santana to be a pinch hitter when in need of a blast.
The way he’s played, not sure they would even put him on the playoff roster
He 100% would have been on the roster. He does well against RHP and that’s all Toronto has.
Actually, he’s done better vs LHP this year.
Still walks a lot vs righty’s
Yes, but his results vs. LHP don’t really matter because Toronto doesn’t have a single good LHP. M’s will be facing a lot of RHP with a group of impact batters who are all RHH. Winker’s BB rate against RHPs is sustainable and translatable and would’ve been very useful in the upcoming series.
“LHP don’t really matter because Toronto doesn’t have a single good LHP.”
They have Tim Mayza, and he’s good.
I consider Tim Mayza average. Results were solid but peripherals were much less convincing. He gives up a HR for every 4 fly balls and has a 1.29 HR/9, his xERA is 4.28, and his FIP is 3.98. He also has a strand rate of 80% which is unlikely to be replicated. He’s recently had some terrible performances, too.
I think Julio, France, Haniger, and Suarez would welcome an opportunity to bat against him.
“He gives up a HR for every 4 fly balls”
And he has the 8th-highest Ground Ball % of all qualified relievers.
“his xERA is 4.28, and his FIP is 3.98.”
And his actual ERA is 3.14 while his xFIP is 2.93. I note the way you use the expected and actual stats selectively to promote your argument.
“He also has a strand rate of 80% which is unlikely to be replicated.”
So he’s likely to replicate the selectively chosen weak stats, but the good ones he’s unlikely to replicate. In fact, his strand rate since his rookie season in 2018 is 75.1%, and he had an 80.4% strand rate in his rookie year.
“He’s recently had some terrible performances, too.”
Out of his last 20 outings he struggled in only four. In the other 16, he gave up a total of one unearned run and zero earned runs.
In his last outing, Devin Williams faced four batters and got only one out and took the loss, giving up 2 earned runs, two walks and one hit for a 54.00 ERA and 15.11 FIP. So he must be a bad pitcher.
Except he has the third-highest fWAR of all qualified relievers, tied with Evan Phillips of the Dodgers.
“I note the way you use the expected and actual stats selectively to promote your argument.”
Well yeah, I’m pointing out the stats that make me consider him average. Average players have good stats, too. I’m certainly willing to concede his good stats (like top-notch GB rate and low BB rates) because I don’t think he’s a bad pitcher. I absolutely concede his xFIP was good, but I also failed to mention that he had the 14th-worst hard contact rate among relievers on the season because I didn’t exactly feel it relevant to the point I’m making. You can list all his good statistics and I would likely agree outside of maybe LOB %.
“So he’s likely to replicate the selectively chosen weak stats, but the good ones he’s unlikely to replicate. In fact, his strand rate since his rookie season in 2018 is 75.1%, and he had an 80.4% strand rate in his rookie year.”
Yes, that’s how strand rates typically work. It is unlikely a pitcher strands more than 70-73% of runners on a yearly basis until the data shows he is capable of this, as it’s an expressed positive/negative regression statistic. As you can see, after his rookie season, his strand rates declined to more typical rates. It is likely he will regress to those rates next season, too. If it doesn’t, then yes, I will have a more positive opinion of him.
“Out of his last 20 outings he struggled in only four. In the other 16, he gave up a total of one unearned run and zero earned runs.”
He was very good against bad teams and often bad against playoff teams. Those bad recent performances– 2 ER to NYY and 2 ER to TB– highlight what makes a guy average, IMO. Also, had a very shaky performance against PHI despite not giving up a run. I’m personally of the opinion that high WHIP performances make a reliever iffy; that’s why I’m not huge on Diego Castillo as a Mariners fan despite him having a higher WAR, a 15% lower HR/FB rate, better xERA, FIP, etc. than Mayza. I also consider him in the average range, maybe even slightly below average. His xFIP is worse and SIERA is worse than Mayza which should be greatly concerning when viewing Castillo. I don’t want him touching the ball in a 3 game series against Toronto.
“In his last outing, Devin Williams faced four batters and got only one out and took the loss, giving up 2 earned runs, two walks and one hit for a 54.00 ERA and 15.11 FIP. So he must be a bad pitcher.”
Not basing my opinion on one outing, plus Williams’ history as a reliever is way better and much more consistent. Plus, I never claimed Mayza to be “bad,” I said he’s “average.” Among qualified relievers, Mayza’s ERA placement is 76th out of 152. That is literally 50th percentile. I find that to be as average as one can get.
“Except he has the third-highest fWAR of all qualified relievers, tied with Evan Phillips of the Dodgers.”
I’m not sure where you got that because I’m looking at FG leaderboards right now. With split: “full season” and min IP “qualified,” the top 10 relievers are: Diaz (3.0), Clase (2.4), D. Williams (2.2), Phillips (2.2), Minter (2.1), Helsley (2.0), R. Lopez (1.9), Munoz (1.9), Bard (1.8), Schreiber (1.8). Mayza and his 0.1 fWAR are ranked 119th out of 152nd for qualified relievers, well below-average at 21st percentile.
I don’t think Mayza is bad by any means. I do think he’s average though. He is definitely deserving of a roster spot on a team, but I think he’s someone you can certainly upgrade. When I think of good lefty relievers, he’s not one who first comes to mind.
Here you go. Devin Williams, tied with Evan Phillips for third in fWAR among qualified relievers:
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&…
You seem to have misunderstood what I wrote. I said Williams was ranked in the third tier, not Mayza.
Additionally, Fangraphs bases their pitching WAR calculation on FIP. This, to my mind, is a dubious calculation. There are lots of pitchers who aren’t strikeout pitchers and whose strength is pitching to contact to induce ground balls and weak fly balls. How this calculation penalizes Mayza seems fairly obvious. He ranks 76th in ERA but 111th in FIP, hence his 119th rank in fWAR.
How does this play out in real-world results? Mayza’s W-L record is 8-1, ranking him fourth in reliever wins.
mlb.com/stats/pitching/wins?split=rp&playerPo…
His 17 Holds ranks him 36th among relievers (Fangraphs gives him only 16 Holds, which is wrong — not an unusual occurrence on Fangraphs, where they tend to lag the updated stats on the MLB site).
mlb.com/stats/pitching/holds?expanded=true&sp…
While acknowledging the well-worn proviso that wins don’t matter in rating pitchers, they do tend to matter in the standings. I’m willing to bet his results also matter in his manager’s comfort level when he sends him to the mound. He’s pitched most often in the 8th inning. There’s more to effective pitching than FIP.
BTW, Baseball Reference credits Mayza with a 0.7 WAR and a 125 ERA+. That’s better than average.
Yes, I misunderstood what you meant. I don’t know how to expand bRef’s leaderboards, so I’ll defer to you on that one. Regardless, I don’t think my opinion is changing. Balancing results and metrics is difficult, particularly in baseball, and that’s why I think it’s so easy for fans to have varying opinions about player value and performance, as well as expected future contributions.
A very polarizing example of this is Seranthony Dominguez. The guy finished with 3.00 ERA/3.09 FIP/3.26xFIP/3.36xERA/1.0fWAR/1.5bWAR, yet a large contingent of Philly fans still want him nowhere near the ball in the playoffs.
An even more interesting case study would be Ryne Stanek and his 1.15 ERA. Seems incredible on the surface, but he’s only at 0.9 fWAR because of a bloated 5.10 BB/9. bWAR, however, lists him at 2.2 WAR. He’s managed a 91% strand rate, which has really kept his numbers down. And good for him–he’s obviously had success this season–whatever he’s doing to strand runners is currently working, but I personally would listen to fWAR here and not use him in high-leverage situations these playoffs due to the messy situations he frequently gets himself into. He very well might pitch awesome throughout the playoffs and cap off an outlier-type season, but I’d be willing to bet he regresses in 2023.
How does he get categorized, though: elite, good, above-average, average? It’s honestly tough and it’s why I have no qualms with you calling Mayza “good.” I just think of him as a bit lesser than that. That said, he could certainly come in and own the Mariners. Heck, Berrios could twirl 7 IP with 3 hits and no walks and it wouldn’t surprise me. That’s baseball.
Playoffs is a new season. I could definitely see Winker as a playoff hero. This is a bummer.
Agree. After seeing him demolish the Brewers, he is still a very good player having a bad year!
Winker hasn’t had the impact we all hoped he would have had this season, but the fact is the guy still gets on base at just below an elite level (tied for 39th in MLB). That would have been very useful against a Toronto team in the playoffs. This hurts more than some Mariners fans will admit.
Been watching him hit all year and I would say he lost his aggressiveness at the plate by being too selective. his K rate and walk rate are up significantly from the previous year….this is my non professional hitting coach point of view…..and his glove is not salvageable…bad routes , slow to read and no speed .
100%. He wasn’t attacking the ball. I think his unlucky April made him a little apprehensive and then, I agree, he lost his aggressiveness.
Hoping he bounces back next year and can be a DH candidate because his OF defense is terrible.
I would agree his walk rate is good. The problem is is he worth a spot on the roster to only hit RHP? We all agree no to the OF and probably a few times against a LHP. So he has value but not a ton and IMHO not enough for a roster spot.
The best bet is to throw him in as a side deal to a team that is looking for prospects and doesn’t mind his shortcomings because they know they aren’t winning.
I think we can find a player out there that would be on a losing team that would take 3-4 good prospects and Winker. A good example would be the Angels but we aren’t trading in Div. I see how he could be a benefit in this series especially since Haggerty is out. Not next year though.
I think he would’ve made the roster because he does just that: gets on base at a high clip (and actually hit LHPs better this season, as someone pointed out). He would DH and can easily be pinch ran for later in the game, but given his past performance, I think you gamble and hope he performs to his capabilities. Toronto is all RHP and we’re all RHH so we need to carry guys like Winker in the WC round, especially in the playoffs where runs are a premium. You could bat him in front of Raleigh, hoping he uses his OBP skills to get on with a Cal blast to follow.
Alas, this is just my opinion and it’s all moot anyway. Here’s to hoping Cade Marlowe can be an absolute beast in a 3 game set!
Some M’s fans are so enamored with their vision of Kelenic, that they just can’t come to grips that it’s wiser to give on D metrics to have Winker’s OBP. Kelenic is 3 for his last 30, season slash 143/219/317. Since his return in sept 188/291/438. I am taking a guess that his stats will be the worst all time among players who will start in the playoffs. If both were healthy there is no question Winker should be in the lineup instead of kelenic.
While it’s true he’s once again slumping, he also has a .368 xwOBA since being recalled–even in the midst of his recent 3-31 slump–so maybe better results are on the way again. But yes, I’d rather have Julio, Mitch, and Haggerty out there if given a choice, although Kelenic has an elite arm which is nice.
Kelenic this Sep/Oct is basically the same offensive player as Winker over the same period of time, but without the defensive liabilities. Winker is objectively the worst defensive outfielder in baseball and, by himself out there pretending to play defense, cost the Mariners 3 games in September alone. As bad as Kelenic is, he’s better suited to be on this club than Winker. That’s not a knock on Kelenic, that’s just how bad Winker has been.
dshires- It always amazes me when people make statements that can be fact-checked so easily. No, Kelenic this Sept/Oct is not basically the same offensive player as Winker, not even close. Since being recalled, his triple slash is .158/.270/.420. Winker’s full season line is .219/.344/.344. Winker has better contact and OBP skills but has not produced his usual slugging. If you’re judging strictly on OPS, sure, but Kelenic doesn’t hit singles, and again, against all RHPs, the Mariners need to get guys on base because Julio, France, Haniger, and Suarez are going to be facing a lot of same-handed pitching.
Winker has been horrible defensively; I’m not going to write a lengthy response to you calling him “objectively” the worst defender in the league other than to say Blackmon and Castellanos have worse OAA and RAA than Winker (so I’d say it’s objectively false that he’s objectively the worst) because I’m not defending his terrible defensive ability and no one is arguing for him to play defense in the postseason. I would surely hope Servais saw it that way, as well.
It is not really a matter of who is better suited to be on this club because ideally, you would not have to start either. Rather, it’s more about who matches up better and who you can trust out of the players on the roster. Winker has been not good this year but has a history of being successful, and even in the midst of his failures this year still maintained a 15.4% BB rate and 18.8% K rate. That translates much better to a likelihood of postseason success than Kelenic’s 8.4% BB rate and 34.7% K rate. You’re basically praying Kelenic gets ahold of one and knocks it over the fence, then crossing your fingers he has an opportunity to throw a baserunner out. In a max 3-game window, Winker’s chance of providing impact is higher.
Hey, I hope Kelenic does these things and I’m glad he has the tools to potentially contribute to this postseason run. I’m not holding my breath, but we know he’s capable. Let’s see him do it.
myaccount2 — It always amazes me when people have ZERO reading comprehension. I stated that Kelenic’s and Winker’s September/October are basically the same, that’s true. I’m not comparing over the course of a season. In fact, in Sep/Oct, Winker has been the worse offensive player, so I was giving him more credit than he’s deserving of. Kelenic is the better player for the postseason.
I know what you stated. I was merely pointing out how Kelenic’s approach is nothing like Winker’s season has been, but if you want to narrow it to Sept/Oct, you’re even MORE wrong because that’s even MORE factually incorrect. Winker’s OBP was .372 in Sept/Oct, better than his entire rest of the season, so over 100 points higher OBP from Winker than Kelenic in Sept/Oct. Winker’s OBP increased substantially from Sept 1 on. Something like 20 points.
But if you’re narrowing it to the timeframe of Sept 22 on, then that’s ridiculously dumb. That’s a tiny sample size and Winker had his neck problem through that time. I guess you would disqualify Haniger based on his Sept 22 on and not play him either, huh?
Detroit was definitely throwing at people’s heads for intimidation all day, both games.
Didn’t everybody see that?
First pitch up and in, many times.
A few were high-90s pitches, too.
Detroit is not my favorite sweet little team.
I’m waiting to see what happens today, the final game of the season.
I look for some ejections today.
It would be one way for or starters to have a rest.
Well I was wrong.
Just an old guy with an over-active imagination I guess.
Today’s final Mariners game for the regular season was a totally honest and hard-played game.
All 3 in Toronto kinda weird. Its great Seattle is in the post season, that and Winker out, as a team they’re doomed.
Why?
I don’t think “doomed.” We went 4-2 against Toronto this season and beat Manoah last time he pitched. I think this series is going 3, but I’d love to see Castillo and Ray just go off.
I’d love to see Ray not pitch at all. Toronto has been killing the ball lately and they’re right handed heavy. Throw Castillo, Logan, and Kirby.
I would rather see Gilbert and Kirby, too, but given that Acta already announced Ray as the game 2 starter, I’m just going to hope Ray does well.
“The timing of this IL placement is significant for a couple of reasons, including the timing.”
Well said.
Most experts have already moved the BlueJays and Phillies onto the next round while tossing up the choking Mets/Padres series and not even remembering Cleveland and Tampa were in the playoffs.
They have the Phils over the Cards? Who?
Vegas, ESPN, MLB, barstool, yahoo, cbs sports, USA Today, fangraphs, baseball savant, Sports Illustrated, MSN, a Facebook poll, Reuters, fox sports and even the Vatican have all predicted a two game sweep
I know most of these were a joke but the Phillies are absolutely not being favored by Vegas. Lol
cardinals win games in the central. of 12 teams, they have easily the worst pitching. not going to say their offense won’t be hot for 3 games, it could also disappear entirely. but there are 12 teams with aces and 2 and 3 starters. cardinals would be lucky to call an 88 mph lobber a 3 starter
Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth:
vegasodds.com/mlb/
Don’t see the M’s going that far. Have a great core to build off of in the off season though.
Robbie Ray is the conundrum. You kind of feel like you need to start last season’s Cy Young Award winner against his old team; the guy you signed to be your #1 starter last winter. But dude has given up 32 bombs, and Toronto lineup is all right handed power. Yeah I think it’s safer to go Gilbert in Game 2. But damn, the reason we signed Ray is for games like this. And he did limit the Jays in his start against them a couple months ago.
I’m scared too but this is what we paid him for. It’s a terrible matchup for him but that could be offset with Robbie’s determination. Hope his stuff brings it cause I know he will mentally. He is a bulldog.
I’m guessing and hoping that he’ll have a short leash. If he gets in trouble in the 3rd, maybe we turn it over to Kirby for a piggyback situation. Gilbert can get the ball in game 3, if there is one.
As long as Winker doesn’t injure his thumb. That would be rather unfortunate. Ayyyyy
I don’t know if a 344 obp 344 slug is more interesting or that a 688 ops nets you 3% above average
Winker looks like a good hitter having a poor year at the plate (besides a good ability to draw walks). Terrible outfielder, probably suited more to a DH role? Maybe they can include him in a deal this winter with a team who could use a good DH and who believes he can bounce back. I don’t see how he has much trade value at this point, but he could be the guy they throw into a deal to get it done. Disappointing. When they traded for Winker and Suarez I was jazzed about Winker and bummed about Suarez… now it’s like a 180-degree difference.
I think this analysis is spot-on. I would keep him, though, rather than sell low on him just because I think it’s likely he hits markedly better, even if it’s not to the level of prior season results. I’m hoping for .240/.350/.460 and feel that is a fair expectation. I think it would be huge if he did this, too. Given the current state of offense in baseball, I think this could be a 2 WAR-type offensive performance. If we add an impact, FA middle infielder, it would basically be like adding two solid offensive weapons.
Mariners would be scary in 2023.
Yes, if they decide he doesn’t have enough value to trade at this point, they might as well hang on to him, see if he can rebound, see what he can do. I certainly doubt that he’s finished! If he could come back to his previous levels, he would be a huge add to the lineup. I don’t think the current organization would pin a lot of hopes on that, like previous regimes have done (pinning too much hope on guys like Bedard, Paxton, etc.), and maybe they would instead view a return to form as a huge bonus. If the Mariners decide to keep Winker for 2023, I still hope they go out and get a couple more hitters this winter. Better for this ballclub to have an abundance of hitters than not enough.
I heard his struggles have something to do with being away from his daughter for such a long period of time. I guess she lives in Buffalo, which would make it fairly impossible to see her during the season. Not sure how old she is…
That could definitely be a factor. I would imagine that although he enjoys playing for a contender more than for the Reds, playing in Cincinatti allowed him to be three hours by plane from his daughter. It could be easier for him to focus when he knows his family is closer.