The contract statuses of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers have been front of mind for Red Sox’s fans dating back to at least this past Spring Training. The club made unsuccessful runs at extending both players in March. Those efforts were put on hold during the season, but with the offseason approaching, they’re certain to rekindle discussions.
Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom already called working on a new deal with Bogaerts before he opts out (which he can formally do after the World Series) a “top priority” this month. There’s less immediate urgency with Devers, who’s still one year from the open market, but there’s no question Boston’s front office will be in touch with the third baseman’s camp at Rep 1 Baseball throughout the winter.
Earlier this week, reporter Yancen Pujols tweeted the team was making a renewed effort at an extension. Subsequent reports out of Boston characterized a visit from assistant general manager Eddie Romero to Devers in his native Dominican Republic as more of a typical offseason check-in (links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive). There was no question the Sox would make a run at extending Devers at some point this winter, but it’s not clear how much to make of Romero’s check-in.
Regardless of the specific nature of the meeting between Romero and Devers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes tonight the sides have indeed reopened talks recently. Heyman reports that Boston has put forth an offer at or above $200MM but suggests there’s still a notable gap between the sides. According to Heyman, Devers’ camp is seeking a deal of ten-plus years worth at least $300MM.
During Spring Training, the Sox reportedly used the eight-year, $168MM extension signed by Braves first baseman Matt Olson as a viable comparison in talks. The sides were well apart at that time, although Devers’ specific asking price was unclear. Boston has raised its offer on the heels of another very strong season from Devers, but the two-time All-Star has increased leverage after an excellent year that moved him closer to free agency.
In his age-25 campaign, Devers appeared in 141 games and tallied 614 plate appearances. He connected on 27 home runs and put together a .295/.358/.521 line. Those slash stats are in line with his numbers from recent seasons, but Devers’ production was arguably a career best in the context of a leaguewide offensive downturn. By measure of wRC+ (which adjusts annually for the league environment and ballpark), he was 41 percentage points better than an average batter. That’s the best mark of his career, and it ranked among the top 20 hitters in the game (minimum 500 plate appearances).
With another great season under his belt, Devers can feel even more comfortable setting a lofty ask in extension talks. He banked $11.2MM this year and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $16.9MM range next season if he goes through his final year of arbitration. He’s presently slated to be one of the top talents in the 2023-24 free agent class, arguably second behind Shohei Ohtani.
12 months from the open market, Devers’ camp can look to the biggest free agent deals in MLB history to set their asking price. A $16.9MM projected arb salary is obviously below his free agent market value, but he’ll lock in one more strong payday before getting to the open market. The Red Sox can perhaps hope to price in a marginal discount to guard against the possibility of Devers having a disappointing or injury-plagued platform year, but the star third baseman has a significant amount of leverage in talks.
This summer, the Braves signed their All-Star third baseman, Austin Riley, to a 10-year, $212MM extension. Riley owned a .301/.360/.604 line at the time of that deal but serves as a generally similar comparison as a bat-first third baseman. However, Riley’s deal was signed midway through his third full MLB season and bought out his final three years of arbitration eligibility. With only one arbitration season remaining, Devers has far more leverage in extension talks. It’s little surprise his reps are aiming much higher than the Riley range.
At the same time, it’s easy to understand why the Red Sox may not be anxious to dole out a deal topping $300MM. That’s a threshold reached only nine times in MLB history. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton got there on extensions, while Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole and Manny Machado reached or topped the marker on free agent deals.
Devers turned 26 earlier in the week and is on track to reach free agency going into his age-27 season. That’s a year older than Machado and Harper were over the 2018-19 offseason but a year younger than Seager was last winter. Broadly speaking, that youth serves Devers well in his effort to land a decade-long commitment. It’s rare to see teams commit to players deep into their 30’s, but a lengthy pact is more palatable for players who hit the market in their mid-20’s.
At the same time, one could argue all three players were safer long-term bets than Devers. Harper had a more robust offensive track record that included a monster 2015 showing to win an MVP. Machado had hit .297/.367/.538 during his platform year and was a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman who could play shortstop if needed. Seager is a full-time shortstop who had a .306/.394/.521 mark during his final year in Los Angeles. All three players also had the benefit of an open market bidding war.
That wasn’t the case for Betts and Lindor, each of whom signed extensions above $300MM with between five and six years of service time. Both players, however, had far more defensive value than Devers. Betts is one of the sport’s top outfielders, and Lindor is arguably the game’s best shortstop.
Devers, by contrast, comes with his share of defensive question marks. He’s played almost exclusively third base in the majors but has always been regarded as a bat-first player. There’s been some trepidation dating back to his time as a prospect about how long he could stick at the hot corner, and that’s largely been borne out in his defensive metrics as a big leaguer. He’s rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career. Statcast gave him an outlier excellent defensive grade in 2019 but has otherwise panned his work as well. This past season, he rated as six runs below average by measure of DRS and two runs below par according to Statcast.
While there’s no indication the Sox would want to move Devers off the hot corner immediately, it’s fair to wonder how deep into a long-term deal he can stick there. He certainly has the offensive aptitude to continue playing every day as a first baseman or designated hitter, but a move further down the defensive spectrum would reduce the team’s roster flexibility around him somewhat.
That’s not to say Devers isn’t an excellent player, but $300MM+ investments have generally been reserved for players with more defensive value or an established MVP-caliber offensive season. Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM extension over the 2014-15 offseason may be the best example for Devers’ camp, but Stanton landed that deal after a .288/.395/.555 showing in one of the game’s most pitcher-friendly home environments.
Given the recent comparable players, it’s little surprise Devers and his group would want to handily top $200MM while the Red Sox would balk at an ask north of $300MM. There’s obviously a fair bit of ground in between those extremes. Whether the sides can find a mutually agreeable price at some point over the next six months will be one of the key storylines of the Boston offseason.
If they wan to they can but neither Xander or devers is obligated to take a hometown discount whatsoever! Get all you can get no matter the place
Let the guy walk if he gets too greedy.
It’s simply negotiations. How about comparing Devers to Papi? Great hitter who was moved to DH because he was a liability in the field. Obviously Ortiz was older when he came to Boston so the years here should be longer but Papi never got near the highest AAV in the league.
Yeah and let Bogaerts go too and then Bloom will have enough $$$ to do his dumpster diving.
Pitching and defense need to be greatly improved notwithstanding the Phillies this year. Regardless of increasing payroll, money spent might be better spent elsewhere.
@Randy Red Sox It’s John Henry’s money
We should make a valiant effort to sign Decers but if someone pays north of 300 million, let him walk. No one player is worth that much.
Big difference in a “valiant effort” and what they offered him. They knew his demands and still only upped their offer by 40 million or so? Not a serious offer. Willing to give Price/Sale 30 million but not Devers?
Shows the mindset of the organization. They’ve made their intentions known for awhile.
I say offer Devers his 10 years at $250. million. First 5 years at 30/year and last 5 at 20. Better chance to trade him if he goes down after age 30, That offer seems much more reasonable than the current offer. If he doesn’t want that, then trade him this off season and don’t wait.
Still be prepared to replace his bat. If you lose X., JD and Devers that’s a whole lot of offense to replace, Sox fans need to prepare.
@yewed I completely agree that we need to pay more, hence by my quoted “valiant offer.” I’m just saying if Devers is going to be unreasonable (like Soto), let him walk.
They made a valiant effort for a guy that will be a DH soon, if not immediately.
Trade Devers this offseason before he becomes a permanent DH and his value craters. He has made clear that 10/300 is the minimum he will consider and that is insane for a guy that will be a DH in a year or two.
Use the money saved for pitching.
If Nolan Arenado opt’s out, then let’s give him the money and trade Devers.
Not a bad idea but they could also move Devers to DH, especially if they don’t retain JDM. By the way, I’m a believer in Martinez who might have been hurt in the middle of the year. He played great the first part and rediscovered his power at the end.
Dewey – an injury is a possibility, but imo I would not re-sign him at 35 years old.
He played great the first part and rediscovered his power at the end.
===================================
He wasn’t great the 1st half. He was the beneficiary of a .469 BABIP in April-May. If regressing to .300 is your kind of thing, and this is what I always do, his JB-adjusted OPS was .650. Do the same exercise for July-Sept, his JB-adjusted OPS was .720.
Even his Sept stats were mediocre until he hit two HRs on the last day, against a pitcher with a 6.43 ERA. I’m not bagging on him, since he earned his keep. But imo, it is time to move on.
An injury is a possibility for his lack of power but I honestly think that the humidor affected him more than anything. The ball wasn’t flying the same going to opposite field, or in general. If you look at his HRs this season he hit only 3 to opposite field. I think some of issues this year was him adjusting his swing. . Which could also explain why he came on at the end of the season.
Home runs were way down this season when they probably should have went up since the NL started using the DH.
Just a thought.
Joe – I totally agree with moving on from JD. He did a great job over the five years as a whole, but post steroid era most players decline around 35 years old. Steroids kept players productive longer, but without them teams take much more risk by paying older players when compared to the cheaper, higher upside pre-arbitration players.
He opted in but even if he didn’t, Devers is younger and would be worth it to spend more.
Joe, difference of opinion. I love his quiet work ethic that others have gravitated to. He’s also been Mr. Clutch over the years. In my view, it depends on price and other moves.
How much do you want to pay a DH? JDM money won’t keep him in Boston, but it was the going rate for a DH in their prime.
Too greedy? First day in America? Stop paying for $11 beers and a $200 cable bill and the contract sizes will come down.
Until then it his responsibility to himself and his peers to try and earn as much as possible whilst billionaire owners laugh all the way to the bank.
LazingLeopard – I have never paid $11 for a beer or $200 for cable. In fact, I haven’t had cable at all for almost 20 years, except for a brief 3-year period when the wife insisted upon it. Life is not about possessions, comfort, or seeing who “gets the most toys”.
You wouldn’t happen to be an unholy Socialist or Socialist-leaning, would you? Yes, “too greedy”. Contrary to what you may think, greed is not justified, regardless of the circumstances. Greed is a strong and selfish desire to have more of something, most often money or power. There are many warnings in the Bible about giving in to greed and longing for riches. Jesus warned, “Watch out! Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; a man’s life does not consist in the abundance of his possessions” (Luke 12:15). “Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy and where thieves break in and steal… You cannot serve both God and money” (Matthew 6:19, 24b).
Greed and a desire for riches are traps that bring ruin and destruction. Avoid greed like the plague. It will leader you further from Our great and loving Creator, not closer to Him.
Lol. Ignoring the random socialist accusation and bible verses, that’s the going rate for concessions at Yankee Stadium and cable carriers due to provider/channel negotiations.
Absent of an overhaul of the realities of the cost to do business, I have no idea what you expect from players?
Olson was a good starting point, a little bit weaker at the plate but a gold glover saving infield errors every week. If Devers is demanding a longer contract at 30 mill a year he can walk.
Olson absolutely was NOT a good starting point. Olson clearly took a hometown discount. No way I accept under $30 a year if the contract is 8 years and no way I accept less than 10 years if the AAV is under $30 if I’m Devers.
Then let him play out the season Darkside. The team hopefully will re-sign Bogie first and needs to find pitching. Bogie needs to be able to move to third at worst for Myers. That alone in hopefully 24 solidifies the infield defense. I love Devers but he has to accept being a DH in my view to remain in Boston if the team is to again have a duck boat parade.
I don’t want Wil Myers at shortstop.
If Devers becomes the dh, then he shouldn’t get 20-30million range since he would be a one way player.
Agreed. I’d like to see someone like Correa or Turner at short, but that’s apparently a pipe dream considering the money.
Lol me either but he must have meant Marcelo Mayer
LOL.
Absolutely. I’d like in 24, Bogie or better defensively at third, Mayer at second, Story at second and Casas at first in 24.
Mayer at short.
What Myers? Are you talking about Mayer? He was in A ball this year. a little too soon to be thinking about moving All Star caliber hitters for him.
Re-sign Bogaerts. He is going into his age 30 season so he won’t get 10 years but he will get at least Story money, probably more.
Move Devers to DH at least part time for 2023.
Then go after a CF. Nimmo?
And pitching. Lots and lots of pitching. Rodon and at least one more solid starter plus bring back Hill and Eovaldi.
Pads – I think he’s talking about Ft Myers.
Then trade Devers now. He will be a full time DH within a year or two and $30 million is twice as much as the best DH’s make.
3rd base is generally viewed as a more premium defensive position than 1st base. Not in the same category as shortstop, of course, but historically more valuable. That said, when you’re not a good defender, I don’t feel that should be considered as much as normal. But Olson is terrific defensively at his position, although I’d rather have Devers’ offense since he makes more contact.
The holdup here seems to continue to be the defensive questions surrounding Devers. So how about this as a compromise:
The Sox offer a base of 10 years/$260M with a bonus clause that pays Devers an additional $5M any year he’s a finalist for the Gold Glove at 3B. The base pay is set at a level to pay for his offensive contributions, and he earns the bonus if his defense is on par with those at the top of the league.
The problem is that Devers is a candidate for Lead Glove every year and won’t be playing any position other than DH long before he turns 30.
As a DH he is not worth even $26 million AAV and he his saying he won’t consider anything less than 10/300.
Its time for Bloom to move on from Devers and focus on the biggest issue, the lack of pitching.
Wow. I’ve had jobs I would never return to, almost no matter what the price. Saying “no matter the place” is valuing one’s money over one’s happiness.
Can Devers even walk with all that cash in his back pocket?
The Lord sayeth to Moses, “Let my people go”, Devers is a great place to start…
Sad day in Beantown if neither of their two stars agree to an extension. That’s ownership basically committing malpractice and a giant FU to the fans. Embarrassing Sad Depressing
Wrong. Xander is 31 and will be declining soon. Devers is 25 and already has back issues. You don’t break the bank for either of those.
Bogaerts is going into his age 30 season.
Thanks. Xander is still too old for the deal Boras will want in my opinion. They probably want 8 years/$240M or more. I think Xander has 4 good years left at most. Also, he hasn’t said he is willing to move off SS eventually that I am aware of.
Actually I misspoke and meant to say it is Sad Depressing Embarrassing that the RS didn’t have those two extended a long time ago. Dragging it out to the last minute and then lowballing the offers is like a slap in both their faces. Shows a Lack of respect for what those two meant to the franchise.
to me, it would be a step backwards. I’d like to see them be the type of players the Sox are build around.
1000%
They didn’t lowball. They simply offered contracts deserving of players at the position these two will be playing in the future. Devers will be a 1B/DH, and Bogaerts was never a SS.
10 years at 300 mill plus for Devers? Let somebody else jump on that grenade.
Can teams include contract bonuses for defensive metrics and/or games played at a position? If so, they should start Devers comp at $25M/yr and add $5M in bonuses for games played at 3B and/or where he finishes in certain infield defensive metrics at the end of each season. In order to earn $30M, Devers has to play good defense at a premium position. If he won’t accept, let him test the market but give him a base 10/$250M offer.
No, the CBA prohibits contract incentives beyond stat-neutral things like games played and awards won.
I have seen contracts with bonus clauses for things like “top 5 in MVP voting” in the past. As such they could likely structure a bonus for being a Gold Glove finalist. The league announces 3 finalists for each position in each league. That should be acceptable under the CBA’s restrictions.
yeah maybe move Dalbec to 3B and slide Casas to 1B and use Story at SS and Arroyo at 1B. Huge savings for JH
Five years from now, do you think players will be asking for 10 years at $300 million?
Maybe the owners need to change the way they offer contracts. For example, when a player first becomes eligible to bargain, an owner could offer a one-year contract with the promise of a raise next season based on how much his WAR (or whatever) exceeded that of MLB/league.(with adjustment for injury). If his performance declines, they can offer him the same as the previous season or free agency. But how many players would want to play for 15 different teams in a 20-year career? I’m not saying that is exactly how it should go but working out a system that owners don’t have to commit to large sums of money for long periods of time seems to me a better way to go.
If one owner tried that, it would be a team full of reclamation projects because every player would look elsewhere for multi-year deals.
If all owners tried that, they’d be sued for collusion and they’d lose.
@oot
That was Charles O. Finley’s idea in the 70’s. Let every player be a free agent every year.
Its against the CBA. The MLBPA will never agree to it so it will never happen.
I say 8 years with 1-2 vesting options around $28m per year should get it done. If he were better defensively he’d be worth Machado money but he’s not so $300m is a hard pass for me.
He’s crazy if he thinks he’s worth $300m. I wouldn’t go past 8 years $200m. If he wants more AAV, then I’d do 4 years $120m. He belongs on 1B though.
He belongs at DH. It’s time Big Papi sat him down and explained how great life could be as the greatest DH of all time. I would love for Devers to take that title.
“Hey Dev, I know you’ve put up league average defensive numbers at third and this will make the AAV of your next contract much higher but have you considered a massive pay cut and riding the bench for most of the game?”
Mute – Great post. In fact Devers improved this year defensively. Not every position requires a GG caliber player, and defense at 3B is not as important as SS or even 2B. He’s also young enough to continue improving defensively, as Beltre did.
One thing Devers does have in common with Papi, he is very comfortable playing in Boston and is superb in the clutch and in big games and big moments. If they try to replace him with a trade or free agent signing, they could turn into another Crawford or Adrian Gonzalez or Panda. Hopefully the Sox have learned to value the human element, players are not machines.
Like Beltre did?
Beltre DRS/UZR 150 age 25 season – 22 / 26.8
Devers DRS/UZR 150 age 25 season – -6 / -2.1
Beltre was already an elite defender by this point in his career, what are you even talking about?
Beltre was reason #1 why I’ve always thought that “some” RS fans were the stupidest in baseball. After 1-2 bad weeks, fans were writing in to say he didn’t know how to hit a curve. My response was ‘he’s been in the league 13 years, and pitchers have just learned this?’. I mean, of course he knew how to hit a fracking curve.
“Hey Dev, I know you have been a defensive liability every year you have been in the league, the worst defensive 3B in baseball or close to it since we called you up, so how about we move you to DH so you can focus on what you do best, hitting, and we can put someone at 3B that doesn’t hurt our chances of winning games.”
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&#…
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_aver…
Devers will not be a 3B long and should be paid like the DH he will be the rest of his career.
poop – Beltre was a very poor defensive player in 2001 at Age 22. But he worked on his defense and got much better.
Devers can do the same, regardless of the age difference. That’s all I’m saying.
Beltre always had great range for a 3B. He was a plus fielder from 1999 on. Even when he made errors, it was a throwing error, not his ability to cleanly field the ball. Of the 29 errors he made in 1999, his first full season in the majors, 24 were throwing errors.
From 2002 on, once DRS, UZR, and other advanced metrics started to measure more of what it takes to be a great defensive player, Beltre was always at or near the best in the league on defense.
It wasn’t until 2013 at the age of 33 that we started to see him declining on defense.
Devers, who is 26, has been the very worst defensive 3B in baseball in terms of DRS and UZR stats since he came up in 2017. In OAA he is 27th of 31 over that time period.
His best season ever was still below average. -6 DRS and -2 OAA. He is absolutely pitiful on defense.
Devers has never come close to league average on defense.
Closest he has come was this season with a -6 DRS. Most years he is closer to the worst 3B.
As a Yankee fan, they should let both of them go and pay more on Sale.
How many innings does Sale have in the last two seasons? Unfortunately he’s too injury prone to rely on.Every time he comes back he gets injured. I wonder how that pinky is coming along.
Wow, did that go over your head. That person is a Yankees fan. Of course they want the Sox to waste money on a broken down Sale and let their 1 best players walk.
2 best players
I get the sarcasm in his post. I know the Sox and Yankees have the biggest rivalry in bb. I didn’t just fall off the turnip truck. Nothing went over my head.
Sale has 48 innings in the last three years, and he has earned about $90,000,000. Dave Dombrowski says “hi” and still complains about his firing…..
Dombrowski is in the WS this season and the HOF soon. I don’t think he is complaining about anything.
Pads – Dombrowski has several articles in the last few days about the ways he was fired from Boston. SINCE YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT, YOU CAN FIND THEM ON YARDBARKER AND MULTIPLE OTHER SITES.
You think he DOESN’T have reason to complain? “I don’t think I was treated right,’’ said Dombrowski. “It hurt. It didn’t end the way I hoped or was handled.’’ After a WS title and 3 straight divisional titles, he is right. He wasn’t treated right. From now on they will call it the Dombrowski curse in Boston.
outinleftfield — ‘after a WS title and 3 straight divisional titles’ — You forgot “Maxed out Salary Cap penalties, gave out terrible contracts to Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovoldi, as well as, traded away over 30 minor leaguers including Manuel Margot, Michael Kopech, Jalen Beeks, Yoan Moncada and Stephen Nogosek”
Sounds like he’s doing things differently in Philly. But, the way it went down in Boston, is not a sustainable business model. You like to buy you pennants and have several years of blight afterwards, I prefer to watch homegrown talent mature and become fan favorites.
outinleftfield, People are going to say what about blah, blah, blah when all that matters is the ring. He got the Red Sox a ring and 3 division titles.
Dombrowski is going to go down as one of the best GMs ever. He is a winner. HOF bound.
Manuel Margot, Michael Kopech, Jalen Beeks, Yoan Moncada and Stephen Nogosek are worth more than a WS title?
How many rings do they have since they were traded away? Who were they traded for? Who has more WAR, those prospects or the guys they were traded for? Do the people they were traded for have a ring with the Red Sox?
He has not changed a thing in Philadelphia. He brings in the players needed to win. If that costs money or prospects, so be it. The goal is to win a WS title.
“Manuel Margot, Michael Kopech, Jalen Beeks, Yoan Moncada and Stephen Nogosek are worth more than a WS title?”
So youre saying if a GM trades away 31 prospects in 3 years he’s guaranteed a WS title? Don’t let that info out, thats gold.
He didn’t. He traded 7 of the Red Sox top 30 prospects in 3 years. He did win a WS. So you are saying you want the prospects back and are willing to give up the WS title?
So what you are saying is that you want those prospects back. That as a fan of the Red Sox you would prefer prospects over titles.
To me, a WS title is worth all of those prospects.
Dombrowski didn’t trade away prospects without getting a great return. The proof is in the 3 straight division titles and a WS ring. BTW, it was 26 prospects, not 31.
Of those 26, 16 never made it to the majors and only two have put up even a single season above major league average since the trade, Margot and Moncada. Kopech may still make it if he an stay healthy.
Between ALL the prospects traded away, there is not one WS ring.
But keep on crying about all the prospects he traded away to bring Boston a WS championship.
Devers is a truly superior hitter, and has improved quite a bit at 3B.
He’s played a high percentage of games – 689 in 6 years which included the abbreviated 2020 season and his first season where he was called up later in the year.
Like Xander Bogaerts and Jose Abreu he’s a natural, pure hitter.
The red flag that should concern any team signing him is his physical conditioning. Next year he’ll be 26 years-old. He’s still at an age where most players don’t have many injuries and heal quickly when they do, unless it’s something major. His agents are looking at a 10 year contract. I’d have a problem giving that to just about any professional athlete. It might be better if he’d lose 20 pounds before reporting to Spring Training and have a bit more dexterity.
It’s a lot of money but that’s the going rate these days. Betts got 300MM and salaries went up from there. I don’t know if Scherzer would have gotten 40+MM a year if Betts had gotten the money he did.
@avenger
It is the going rate for complete players. Devers is weak defensively and lacks speed. He is not a complete player. He is not comparable to Betts. JD Martinez is an offensive compareable. $300 MM is not happening with any wise team.
That’s my concern as well. As a Raiders fan, and being burned by Jamarcus Russell, my fear is that, if a player cannot stay in good physical shape when he should be motivated to, what happens when his salary gets locked in, and that is no longer a motivating factor.
I don’t think he will fall apart, but it has to be a risk factor.
Joe – ….what happens….he turns into Pablo Sandoval…… the one who ate his way out of Boston…
JC#1;
B I N G O !
Never wrote it, but Devers reminds me so much of Sandoval.
It’s like the proverbial baseball saying: “My best pitcher woke up this morning with a sore arm”.
I keep harping on Devers lack of physical conditioning because of the Sandoval situation. One day the adorable Panda stood in the batters box and was a totally different player.
He was never a totally different player. I assume at some point, he was not in terrible shape. But his last few years with SF, he looked obese. I assume that LL thought they’d sell a million jerseys or something.
And I am still annoyed they tried to say that he was 17.5% body fat My guess is that I am 20-25%, and I am half the size he is.
@Samuel—Right on
How do you explain Vogelbach and Tellez?
avenger65;
When are they getting $300m-plus and eligible for the HOF?
Trade him… 300/10 years is crazyyy!! 225/7 and 2 op. if not trade that asssss
Given his age, a ten year deal isn’t out of the question but his aav should reflect closer to Olsons aav of 22 million, not 30.
It’s absolutely ridiculous to me that good players think they deserve 30 million plus, and that is what Devers is, good. He isn’t great. He isn’t a mvp candidate year in and year out. He isn’t Bryce Harper or Manny Machado… he’s a good player, nothing more.
He finished 11th in the MVP voting in 2021 and 12th in 2019 (he’s clearly getting votes) and has been to back to back all star games. Players that are “just good” don’t get MVP votes.
Who finished 10th and how much are they getting paid?
There were plenty of players that finished above him and below him that made more or less money than Devers. I see what point your’re trying to make but it’s largely irrelevant.
Devers is a great hitter. The problem is that he is terrible defensively.
You know? I’m so sick of these greedy baseball players asking for the most money and literally destroying a team’s payroll. We need a reset button.
Except that the luxury tax is a creation of the owners to artificially drive down player salaries.
Tell that to the Yankees.
Wrong.
The luxury tax is a creation of the owners to semi-level the playing field for mid and small market teams.
That was the excuse the owners gave not the reality
Not the owners in small markets and most mid market cities……whose fans were getting fed up losing their better players and knowing they never had a real shot at winning anything.
“I’m an American and I hate the free market.”
And that market works both ways.
“I’m so sick of these greedy baseball players asking for the most money and literally destroying a team’s payroll. We need a reset button.” That may be exactly what John Henry was thinking as he was firing Dombrowski and hiring Bloom.
True, but I meant in the sport in general
Red Sox might be sellers this time.
It’s time to show loyalty to players who have come up through the system, and performed well. What they did to Vazquez is disgusting. Bogie and Devers should be signed to long term deals, Bogie 6 years at $165,000,000 and Devers at 8 years and $225,000,000. Bring back Vazquez. Sign at least one good starter, and save the dumpster diving for role players.
That is nice and all but according to reports that isn’t enough money to get the deal done for the players. I agree teams should pay their loyal players those deals but it goes both ways. Some players may be willing to be like the Braves players and take a slighter deal to stay but the players are allowed to see if they can make more money. Most will never have another job after baseball if they have made a lot of money in their careers. It is a easy retirement if you don’t have to worry about the future.
If Devers was willing to accept 8/225 that deal would already be done. From the article – “Devers’ camp is seeking a deal of ten-plus years worth at least $300MM.”
That amount is not even in the realm of possibility for a player that will be a DH as soon as 2023. At the most they will get a couple of years of him at 3B and the rest of his career will be at DH.
6/165 would be a fair deal for Bogaerts,, especially since Story signed for less than that. I think he is holding out for something closer to 6/180 and he will probably get it.
I wouldn’t want him for the Cubs now. He’s obviously on drugs. Next
If he was a free agent someone would pay him 300m. Seager is a pretty good comp in my eyes. Seager isnt a great defender, was a bit older and played more difficult position. So you can argue a little each way. Bottom line is he is an elite power lefty bat. They don’t grow on trees.
He is now at the stage where he can ask for free agent type money. Either the Sox will give it to him or someone else will.
If the Sox decide not to then they definitely should trade him this offseason. He only has 1 year left so the return while still will be good, it won’t be great. Still better then losing him for a comp pick. Trade comp will look something like betts, though betts was a better all around player.
I could see a team like the padres trading for him and moving him to 1b.
Is there another Texas that’s willing to overpay for a 3b this year?
Seager has been slightly above league average on defense by OAA and exactly league average by DRS since 2017.
Devers has been either the very worst or among the bottom 3 defensively over that period depending on the defensive metric you prefer.
Seager plays by far the more important defensive position.
Devers is not a FA and its likely that with JDM leaving he will spend as much or more time at DH this season as 3B. His value is as a DH and he will get paid accordingly regardless of what he or his agent thinks.
Enjoy sitting on the sidelines waiting for that $300M contract.
It’s like every other high-dollar contract…whatever the market will bear is what it’s going to take. The arguments about overpays are interesting, but to use a car analogy, if you have you heart set on the ragtop with the engine that purrs, a sturdy, reliable four-door sedan that screams out “Dad” just doesn’t float the boat. There will be a market for Devers, and more likely than not, just like the convertible, there may be some second thoughts afterwards. GMs know this–they just want to get as much value out of the product early enough so that when the inevitable age-related decline starts, they don’t feel totally snookered.
Spotrac appraises Devers’ market value at 12 years and $351 million. Boston Fenway Group will eventually have to part with the cash or lose him. MLB is a business, not a charity.
Spotrac appraises Devers’ market value at 12 years and $351 million.
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Are you serious? No one is paying him $351M. Discounting Betts’ contract to present value, $351M would make him the 2nd most expensive player in baseball. He’s a very good player, but not great, and is ranked #28 over the past 3 years, and #22 over the past two years.
And he’s only 26. He will get that money.
Well, if someone wants to pay him like the #3 player in baseball, then good luck to both of them. But I’d also bet serious money he doesn’t get it.
Are YOU serious? He’s absolutely getting something close to that, which by the way WONT make him the “2nd most expensive player” which btw, is totally fine as he’s an elite superstar.
You anti-player types have lost, you have lost the argument, you are wrong, you hate the players and defend the owners, thats an L. You are just plain incorrect here, across the board.
Half the time all you pearl-clutching types hear a number over 100 million you freak out and trash talk it EVERY time. Why is that? Big contracts win you titles, this is fact, so do you personally hate winning? Its NOT YOUR MONEY. Do you even think winning the WS is important? Because if not, youre a bad fan and need to get a new hobby.
That is funny. Hilarious actually.
These arguments about huge long-term contracts come out every year. Because every year there are a few players that “(gasp) We never saw anything like this before!” that are FAs or on the cusp of being FA’s.
Under this article we talk about Mr. Devers and his prowess, and how the team needs to show him the respect he deserves…..or something. Under the Brewers article their fans write in discussing the semi-retiring GM giving Christian Yelich a long-term contract that worked for a few years but is now limiting what the team can do in building a competitive roster.
This has been going on every year for decades. It gets more costly and intense each year. I don’t have time to do a study, but what I’ve seen is that some of the long-term contacts work out fine for teams as far as player production goes, but most don’t. However – more importantly – baseball is a game that limits what one player can do – (again) a starting pitcher only pitches once every 5 days; a batter only comes to the plate once every 9 batters; a fielder only impacts a game if the ball is hit or thrown to him, etc. Point being that winning teams need production from all 26 men on the roster, and during a season teams use more than double that amount of players on their roster via endless transactions. So if a franchise pays a star player an excessive amount in salary, then they have to cut back on some of the other 25 roster spots – meaning they’ll have to roll out a starting pitcher or two that isn’t as good as they wanted, but they couldn’t afford better; roll out a batter…….
The lesson the winning small market teams teach us is that (in this weeks vernacular):
It’s better to have a bit of a lower ceiling and a higher floor.
LOL! This is always, always as it is. Half the fans complaining about the $250M player they signed, and half of them complaining about their team not signing any $250M players.
That said, I would make a fair offer ($245M/10, imho, or a higher AAV/shorter years). If he doesn’t take it, I’d trade him and make Bogaerts a fair offer ($150M/6), move him to 3rd, and sign a one-year SS, or move Story to SS.
Joe;
The more I watch what’s going on with these contracts, the more I think the Astros have it right by refusing to issue any contracts over 5 years.
I don’t fault the players or their agents for wanting long-term security….or simply cashing in while the getting’s good. But for over 10 years we’ve seen how bad long-term contracts hold a team down. Even the monied Yankees have limitations put on them via Stanton’s contract.
Were I the Sox, I’d trade him. Get some decent young pitching.
Altuve? Alvarez? Both got over 5.
Looks like neither player would be in Boston next year if you were in charge.
Samual-totally agree. This is not like basketball who Michael Jordan can go out and score 60 points. It requires a much deeper team. Devers bat is great, but the whole packages does not add up to $300,000,000.
If Xander leaves I would look at trading Raffy to Xanders’s new Zip Code. They are joined at the hip and to not have the X man when things get tough would make life miserable for Devers..
I don’t know much about Aranado but he has put up impressive numbers in the past.
There are quite a few SS’s that will be looking for a new home this winter that won’t have high price tags–glove first to solidify the middle.
Vazquez may be available at a reasonable figure. He was not too impressive on the big stage so far: the WS may be different-hopefully.
madmc44;
Cleveland, the Yankees and a few other organizations have been loading up on quality SS prospects in the minors. The theory is that if a guy can play SS he can play other infield positions and possibly the OF.
The offshoot will be that in a few years SS’s will be plentiful as those organizations trade off some of their surplus SS’s to get help in other areas. The salaries that the FA SS’s got last year and will get this year are going to totally out of whack with the rest of MLB’s SS’s.
A little of that might’ve due to extreme shifting. When the 2B plays behind 2nd, or if the SS is playing behind 2nd, then you can sacrifice some range for some more hitting.
It’s possible that glove-first SSs come back into style, and I think more rangy 2Bs will definitely be in demand.
I still think they end up signing one or the other. These dual negotiations are simply the path to the “winner”
6 years is the max I would go for Devers…. pay him 6 @ 186 and give him an opt out after 4 years..
Structure the contract the following:
Year 1…. 28 million
Year 2…. 29 million
Year 3…. 30 million
Year 4…. 31 million
Year 5…. 34 million
Year 6…. 34 million
I disagree on the opt out. I’m kinda tired of players expecting to have the best of both worlds. If you want a 6 year contract, sign a 6 year contract. If you want 10 years sign for 10 years. If you want to be able to test the market again in another 4 years, sign a 4 year contract. There’s absolutely nothing positive in there for the team to offer an opt out in a contract. If the player does well, he’ll attempt to leave for more money. If he sucks, you’ll be on the hook for an overpriced player.
The Opt out is there so after 4 years he would be playing season at 31.. If he chooses to opt out at 31 and make more than the 34 million……… at that time with the farm system the way it is… let him go….. but getting him for the next four or five seasons is what interests me…. not a stupid 8 or 10 year contract…
I have no problem with opt-outs say after half the contract. Almost no long-term contracts are worth it halfway through the contract. If someone signs an 8-year contract at age 29, it’s probably still looking good at age 33. But it usually declines pretty quickly after that.
And you get a nice ancillary benefit if it is a player that hasn’t received a QO.. You give someone 8 years, they opt out after four good years, and you get a pick as a bonus.
“All aboard the John Henry Low-Ball Express!” Next stop? Xander Bogaerts.
yankee fan here: devers is absolutely worth 300M
If the Yankees lose Judge then they will likely reset the cap this winter and sign Devers next off-season. I’d rather have Devers at 27 signed to a $300M deal than Judge at 32 signed to a $400M deal.
Judge isn’t getting $400MM so you can rest easily.
Offensively Devers hasn’t hit his peak yet, defensively he’s gotten better each year but he’s never going to be Brooks Robinson out there. $250-300 million is not an unreasonable demand over the course of 8-10 years
It is for a Dh!
No DH is worth $30 million AAV and that is what Devers will be before his 30th birthday. Maybe before his 27th birthday. The Riley extension is a good comp for what the Red Sox should offer. If he wants more, spend your money elsewhere.
Only the other Sox were worse on defense in the AL, the Red Sox starting pitching ranked 22nd (19th in FIP), and their bullpen was worse. Pitching and defense is what they need to get back to the playoffs.
Going to say it again….. these teams that give out these 10 + years contracts are just plain stupid. Mookie Betts is 3 years in…… in 3 more years they are going to start regretting this contract big time. Angels continue to offer massive contracts to players… how is that model working. Trout is declining, Rendon was a massive overpay…… Padres…. how does that 13 year contract look for Tatis now? Machado has been decent…. but cant wait for his back end decline. Lets see if they make the same mistake for Soto. Anyone that gives Judge more than 6 years will regret it a few years down the road….
Going to say it again…you dont know anything about baseball if you think long contracts are in any way, shape or form, bad for the game. Your examples dont even follow your premise. Just shut up, man.
I never said it was bad for baseball…. I just said it was really stupid…. so you f-off
Machado has provided $146-150 million in value while being paid $75.84 million. I think the Padres are just fine with his starting to decline after 2024. Machado is playing so exceptionally well that he may opt out of the 5/160 he is owed from 2024-2028.
Mookie has provided $120-125 million in value while being paid $55.83 million by the Dodgers. Like the Padres with Machado, I am quite sure that the Dodgers would be fine with Betts starting to decline in 2025.
Tatis made $1.6 million in the first year of that deal and a portion of the $5.7 million he was owed for 2022. He doesn’t make even $20 million until 2025 and provided $55-60 million in value in just 2021 and $115-120 million over his first 3 seasons, so the Padres are not sweating that deal at all
Trout is off the charts in the value he has provided the Angels. Somewhere around $700 million in value so far in his career. He is going into his age 31 season and will likely start to decline. He is owed roughly $300 million and if he never played another game the Angels will have made a sizable profit from him being on their team. Moreno has no regrets about signing Trout.
Rendon is the only one of those that looks like a mistake as of today. I would not have made that deal, but Moreno did.
When you save value, are you referring to product sales, marketing revenue, and the like?
Those numbers he is quoting come out to about $8.5 million per WAR so I would assume he is talking about a player’s value as defined by Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. As far as I know that does not include ticket sales, product sales, or anything other than their value on the field and what it would cost to replace them in free agency.
Cool, thanks.
Yes, this $=WAR nonsense bears zero impact on a player’s salary, which also has nothing to do with future value. Why wont fans learn this and stop viewing players on big money deal as “bad players who are keeping the team from thriving”? Oh right, that’s EXACTLY what the 1000x more richer team owner tells you to think. MLB team owners are killing this game.
How about thinking for yourself for once?
You are exactly right. I was talking about their value according to BR and Fangraphs.
1 point of WAR is worth $8.5 – 9 million on the FA market. That is how they calculate the value that player’s performance as measured by WAR brings to the team.
Trout is declining? I’d take his offense, defense and walker any day.
Imagine saying Trout is declining lmao absolutely stupid comment
Trout is declining because he is hurt and missing significant time each year. You have seen the best of Trout. He is still damn good, when he is playing though. If he can put together a full season…. then I will be proven wrong.
Soto is the one player I think not only is absolutely worth 500m for 10 years, but also will live up to the contract. He’s a stellar athlete
Thing is, there’s like 50 players like this.
He put up numbers worthy of Adam Dunn this year. Price that as you will.
Sox could quash all the BS about this 300mils demand in a 1 sentence press release, ” Devers is our new DH starting today!”
Another issue can be fixed with another sentence, “…also, an offer to have Bogey play 3rd base for us for the next 6 years has been forwarded to his agents.”
I really hated the lowballing that the Sox FO did this past spring. But I’m no fan of just rolling over for a guy either.
How are the Red Sox one of the wealthiest teams in the league, yet are letting their elite superstars walk in FA…why?
The owners/CEO/thieves at the very top are once again, destroying the game for the fans.
Yeah.Leave that to Manfred.
Manfred “the owners commish” – that Manfred???
Look what they have done in Liverpool.
We should make a valiant effort to sign Devers but if he’s going to cost north of 300 million, I can seeletting him walk. No one player is worth that much.
$300m+ is foolishness. Devers is a nice player who has only topped 4.4 rWAR *once* in his career, and not since 2019.
He’s a 3-4 rWAR 3Bman including slightly below average defense, and he wants a 10-year deal for more than $300m?
Trade him.
Have fun watching the other 4 AL East teams stomp you out for the next decade.
Over his last 3 full seasons, 2019, 2021, and 2022, Devers has averaged 4.33 bWAR. That is worth about $36 million per season. IF, and its a HUGE if, he remains at 3B.
Does any team including the Red Sox really think that he will remain at 3B is the relevant question.
Over that same period, no 3B with 300 or more games played has been worse defensively than Devers by measure of DRS and its not really close.
Over those 3 seasons, the best DH has been Yordan Alvarez with Nelson Cruz and JD MArtinez 35-37 points behind in both OPS+ and wRC+. Both Alvarez and Martinez played substantial amounts of games at a position other than DH.
What did the highest paid one of those 3 make? JD Martinez was on a 5 yrs/$109.95 million deal. Basically $22 million per season.
When he signed that deal, Martinez was coming off a 3 year stretch where he had a 149 OPS+ and 148 wRC+.
Over his last 3 full seasons Devers has a 135 OPS+ and 134 wRC+. I threw out the 107 OPS+ and 108 wRC+ in 2020 as it wasn’t a full season.
The AAV on Martinez’s deal is the best AAV Devers should be expecting. He is very young, so 10 + years is not out of the question, but the AAV should top out around what Martinez received because even though there has been some MLB player wage inflation, Devers is not as good of a hitter as Martinez was.
I am not a GM obviously, but if I was I would not top 10/225m for Devers.
They finish last with them they can also finish last without them.
What a mess. Should’ve kept Betts.