It’s been a difficult couple of years for Cubs fans, as the team finished 74-88 in 2022, just a few wins better than the 71-91 record they posted in a 2021 season that saw the team trade Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez, among other players, at the trade deadline. While the Cubs may have only made marginal improvements in the standings this year, there are some bright spots. Both Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki delivered in their first years in Cubs uniforms, and young players like Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, and Justin Steele all gave fans reason to hope with encouraging 2022 performances.
Leading the pack in that regard was Ian Happ, who had a transformational year in 2022 en route to his first All-Star selection. In 520 career games entering the 2022 season, Happ slashed .241/.338/.467 (113 wRC+) and had shown himself to be a primarily three true outcomes hitter. Among hitters from 2017-2021 with at least 1500 plate appearances, Happ’s 12% walk rate ranked 31st in the majors and his .226 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) ranked 51st. While those numbers on their own would put Happ in a similar conversation as the likes of Christian Yelich and Paul Goldschmidt, his 30.8% strikeout rate ranked 4th among qualifiers over that timeframe, severely hampering his overall production. This, combined with defensive assignments such as second base and center field where he looked overmatched, left Happ entering the 2022 season with just 6.9 career fWAR.
The 2022 season saw Happ play like a completely different player. He still takes his walks, though the 9% rate at which he did so in 2022 is reduced from his previous career norms, but the power output has changed dramatically. Formerly a player who could be relied upon for 20-25 home runs over the course of a full season, Happ hit just 17 home runs in 2022 despite having more plate appearances this season than any other in his career: a result of his career-worst 6.5% barrel rate.
What Happ gave up in power, he made up for in increased contact. His strikeout rate plummeted all the way to 23.2% in 2022, a remarkable improvement for a player who as recently as last year finished with the 10th-highest strikeout rate among qualified batters. This reduction in strikeouts came off the back of significantly reduced whiffs. Happ posted a contact rate of 75% this season, a significant improvement over his 67.6% career rate entering the 2022 season.
In addition to his improvement in terms of contact, Happ also saw much of his lost home run power convert to doubles power. While his low home run total in 2022 may seem concerning on the surface, Happ hit a whopping 42 doubles this season, tied for sixth-most in the majors and more than doubling his previous career high of 20. With fewer whiffs and more doubles, Happ’s .271/.342/.440 slash line in 2022, good for a wRC+ of 120, left him hitting better than he ever had in a full season. He was also more consistent as a hitter in 2022, able to handle both lefties and righties with equal effectiveness. While Happ has struggled against lefties for his career (posting just a .717 OPS against them in 584 plate appearances), in 2022 he actually posted slightly better numbers against lefties than righties for the first time in his career: a .788 OPS against lefties compared to a .780 OPS against righties.
Along with his growth at the plate, Happ was a positive contributor in the field for the first time in his career in 2022. A full-time shift to left field has done wonders for Happ’s defensive value; his +2 OAA in 2022 ranks fourth among qualified left fielders and trails only Adam Duvall in the NL. All of this growth saw Happ post a 3.5 fWAR in 2022, more than his totals for 2020 and 2021 combined.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Happ to make $10.6MM for 2023 in his final trip through arbitration. A free agent at the end of the 2023 season, Happ’s future is uncertain. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this week the team has laid the groundwork for extension discussions with some key players this offseason, although there’s no indication a deal with Happ (or any other player) is close. The Cubs have doled out just two contract extensions in the past four years: one to Kyle Hendricks during Spring Training in 2019, and one to David Bote just a few days later. Furthermore, for an organization with top prospects such as Brennen Davis, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alexander Canario manning the outfield in the upper levels of the minors — not to mention Suzuki under contract to man right field through the 2026 season — an extension for a player who’s just shown his best position to be left field may not necessarily be prudent.
Given all this, it seems likely that Happ will be playing elsewhere sometime soon, whether that’s in time for Spring Training next year, after next year’s trade deadline, or after Happ tests free agency for the first time. One speculative fit would be with the crosstown White Sox, who have a collection of talented players but had one of the least productive outfield units in the majors in 2022. Furthermore, Happ’s switch-hitting capabilities would be an excellent change of pace for a club that relies on the righty bats of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, AJ Pollock, and Andrew Vaughn when it comes to manning the outfield. The Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Giants are among other teams who missed the postseason this year and could stand to make improvements to their outfield going forward. As for teams that made it into the postseason, the Braves may look to improve upon their internal left field options of Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna, while the Rays will need outfield help with the likes of David Peralta and Kevin Kiermaier likely hitting free agency this offseason.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Ian Happ has been a Cardinals killer in his career, I for one wouldn’t mind seeing him going to the AL cross town rival White Sox
Nice guy who does good charity work with his connect roasters coffee, dishing out the finger dollars, though he often sounds like he’s about to cry on his ads. Not that there’s anything wrong with crying in baseball
What’s a “finger dollar”? Never heard the term.
Oops dinger dollars. Damm autocorrect
Was this a career year for Ian Happ? Time will tell. The real question is…
Is he a Transformer or a Gobot? Micro Machine?
Look at his home away splits. He dominated at wrigley and wasn’t very good away. I would worry about trading for him
Really nice to see a guy go against the TTO style of baseball and become a better pure hitter. If he repeats in 2023, he’s gonna be lined up for a nice contract.
I always wonder what people mean when they say “pure hitter.” I’m not sure if there’s a consistent view of what that means.
More like trying to save his career not goin against. He was a strikeout machine prior to his revamping
Gee I read the headline , thankfully after reading the article it was baseball related…. Coz u just never know these days
I thought it was animorphs related. Then I, like you, realized I was a moron and forgot I was on a baseball site.
Great minds think alike, and so do we!! Cheers to a fellow idiot!
I thought the article would say from now on “they “will be known as Anna Happ 🙂
Thought? Are you sure you don’t mean “hope”?
It’s always interesting to see pieces like this. Calling this a transformational year is funny because it could just a easily be an outlier depending on his performance going forward.
If he continues to produce in a similar manner going forward then you can point to this year as the year he transformed, but until then who is to say? The team went through a major offensive restructuring before this year where he was more of a focal point in the offense. If he is dropped back down in the lineup will he do as well? In a better lineup pitchers would probably attack the zone more leading to less BB and more K. But that’s just my guess.
Ill need to see another season before I’d say he’s transformed.
it was a very good year but a year does not make a career
I hope he continues to improve and does it as a Cub
Well what is Ian happs ceiling that might be his career year
I was thinking the same thing. This kind of year is what has been expected from him since he came up. I remembered his first few months, he supposed to be the next in line to be a great hitter to go with Rizzo, Schwarber Baez, and Bryant. Then he dipped. And that has been his MO, a roller coaster flashing potential but never able to maintain. I think had a good year hitting and then the next couldn’t hit.
I’d like to wait another year to see if he could maintain.
That’s what I was thinking. He’s cut back a little on his swing, but his results were largely in the range of what they’ve always been. EV & K/W were about identical to his career numbers. If his BABIP reverts back to his career numbers, his OPS might be identical as well.
To me, transformational would be more in the line of striking out less, but keeping the rest of his offensive stats the same. Or, just as importantly, has he really improved his defense? Otherwise, he remains a player with decent power and a weak-ish K/W.
Past that, he looks exactly like Bryant to me. He’s going to have an .840 OPS, with decent defense, and the Rockies will talk themselves into replacing Blackmon with Happ.
“ To me, transformational would be more in the line of striking out less, but keeping the rest of his offensive stats the same.” would be the exact opposite of transformation….
I like Happ but I keep waiting for him to find his happy median. He constantly overcorrects his weaknesses creating new holes elsewhere.
In 2022, he cut his is way down but sacrificed power leading to a 119 ops+ which was just the third highest in his career. He got better against lefties but worse against righties and the only time his power seemed to show up was when he was playing the reds.
I wonder if Happ, or any other player who has an article about them, comes here and reads it
A lot of MLB players follow MLBTR. Another question is if any take the time to comment.
Probably not. A lot of them seem to use Twitter to interact with fans or promote themselves.
I’ve said it before, The Cubs should move him this off season. I doubt he’s going to get any better and the hardest thing to do is move a guy who’s just had his best year. But, Like the article says he basically can only play LF. Sell high, Move on with the young guys and be more versatile. Also the reason they should move Madrigal, he can only basically play 2B. Cubs have tons of guys who can do that. I realize you won’t get much for Madrigal, But maybe package them together? See if Carter can get creative. Happ’s best feature is he’s a SH, But up until this year he hasn’t been all that great RH.
I disagree on both, I think Happ can be a very good player… and I actually don’t think this was his best year, most consistent but not his best. He also isn’t just a left fielder, it’s just his best position. Happ was serviceable center fielder and can play right field just fine.
I also disagree on Madrigal… so many Cub fans want to give up on him after posting one bad season. I wasn’t really high on Madrigal before and I’m not high on him now but he is significantly better than he showed at the plate this year. He was also surprisingly good in the field and really could be our next Tommy LaStella with better d… LaStella had some solid contact skills, could consistently hit heat and could play second, third (despite not having the arm for it) and first.
We have Morel who can play all over but the jury is still out on him… hot start poor finish with some horrendous defense along the way (also some spectacular plays) i keep Madrigal as depth/bench/pinch hitter. He’s the guy you want up if you need to scratch across a run late with a hard thrower on the mound.
Happ will never be what he was billed which was ” The next Ben Zobrist”. By the way, In a ridiculous piece of irony. The Cubs carried Kyle Schwarber all those years and played him in the OF because he could only play 1B and LF and the NL had no DH. So they let him walk and wala, The NL adds the DH AND an extra roster spot and he’s exactly what they need, a LH power DH. Has nothing to do with Happ but it struck me funny in a This blows kinda way.
I thought the same thing but the Cubs in 2020 still played Schwarber in the field fairly often…
Not many people are talented enough to do what Zobrist did and if they are, they are dudes like Hoerner who’s defensive prowlers would be wasted bouncing him all around. But Happ can play all three outfield positions and I would assume first base fairly well.
You must be an eternal optimist if you think Happ can play all 3 OF positions. I know Ross doesn’t think that. And I sure don’t.
I wonder if the Phillies would be willing to trade Castellanos after a down year… kick in a little cash… I think he’s be a good fit for the Cubs and should have a nice bounce back, enjoys playing in the NL Central. He’s “only” owed 80 million, maybe get the Phillies to kick in 20 million, send someone (not Cassie) from the darvish trade (preciado) and roll Suzuki 2, Happ 3, Castellanos 4, Mervis 5, Hoerner 6, wisdom 7, Gomes 8
Except Castellanos is RH, and the Cubs are way to RHanded already. They need Lefties Unless you’re a total dreamer and still think Castellanos can play 3B. He can’t
Mervis hits lefty… Madrigal and hoerner it doesn’t matter because they can hit anyone and Happ is a switch…
Ross certainly believed Happ can play all three hence himself playing all three. He locked down lf and played gold glove caliber defense there. He isn’t a good glover in cf but more than capable to play there, obviously, he’s played center a huge part of his career
Needing lefties is a fallacy, they just need guys who can hit. A balanced line up doesn’t mean a line up that has right and left handed hitters, it means you have guys who can hit heat, offspeed, breaking pitches, lefties, righties, etc.
left and right is generally so guys cannot get too comfortable working a spot, say most righties cannot hit the slider low and away, but you have Hoerner who can fight that pitch the other way regularly, he negates the need for a left handed hitter. Hoerner creates more balance in that situation than Happ because Happ cannot hit sliders down and in
You are high if you think the Cubs don’t need left handed hitters.
Just so you know… Their OPS was under .700 vs RHP.
Try reading and processing what I said and refrain from blurting out stupid responses
You said needing a left handed hitter is a fallacy. If you don’t know the meaning of the word fallacy then you’re the one being stupid.
Fallacy = mistaken belief.
Needing a left handed hitter is a mistaken belief… That’s exactly what you said. So in other words you’re saying that people who think the Cubs need a left handed hitter are mistaken.
Now process that before you get nasty for your own stupidity.
Who billed Happ as the next Zobrist?
Sschawber never played 1B until the Red Sox. He was a catcher (not) and LF for the Cubs.
On the last point, either he found his stroke or the Cubs held him back, but the Cubs could definitely use him.
The Cubs did when they drafted him. It’s what they said.
Interesting they would say that when Zobrist was on the As at the time. The only reference I recall, which doesn’t mean much, is when there was talk after he came up in 2017 or 18 that they should model him after Zobrist.
It is a fallacy, being left handed doesn’t automatically mean you can hit right handed pitching. It doesn’t matter if you’re entire line up is right handed as long as it’s balanced.
The Cubs had all kinds of lefty/righty in the past, meant Jack crap because even though they hit from opposite side of the plate, they were all the same type of hitter… I.e. launch angle hitters who pitchers could beat by simply pitching the same way. Even out lefties had holes in their swings similar to the eighties, Rizzo and Happ couldn’t handle sliders down and in, nor could they lay off them. To compound things non of our hitters could hit breaking pitches at a league average.
The better philosophy is having hitters the complement each other regardless of which side they hit from to keep pitchers from being comfortable. I line up hitting all from the right side that has different strengths and weakness is more balanced than a line up that hits from the left and right but has the same weaknesses or does that fly right over your head?
The reason lefties hit righties better is because lefties can cheat due to natural glove side run from the pitcher, meaning that righties naturally run into lefties power. It also makes them susceptible to left handed pitchers due to them pulling the head off ball. That’s why there are so many lefty hitters in need of platooning vs right handed hitters.
Now to jump off on your comment about the Cubs having an ops under .700 against righties… that, in large, had to do with the fact the Cubs offense was horrible. Only one hitter had an ops over .800 and only three regulars hit in the “high (.750+) .700s”. And none of the reserves did. Fact is, the Cubs just had a bad offense and didn’t hit for power in general. How many teams didn’t have a single 30 home run hitter or a single guy drive in at least 60 runs? You think a couple lefties will fix that? If you do you’re the one who’s high
Murph, No it was hilarious to me at the time. The Cubs drafted Happ and said he was the next Ben Zobrist. Epstein was so convinced he was the next Ben Zobrist that HE WENT OUT AND SIGNED THE REAL Ben Zobrist. I almost had a heart attack laughing.
It’s also a fallacy that Happ can play all 3 OF positions. And 2B for that matter. He’s an average LF at best.
That is funny. I like Happ. As a Cubs fan I’m torn.
Everybody always assumes that because I said trade somebody that i don’t like them or I think they stink. Happ is a good player and a good guy who had a career year and was an All Star. Given that each team has 3 OF’s the odds of him being an All Star again are remote. He hasn’t got a ton of power and Canario, Caissie, Davis all do. Plus they are all better defenders no matter what Happ’s agent Drascoo tries to make everyone believe. The time to move him is now.
Guess you know more than the stat heads at fangraphs who had Happ third in the majors at left field and OAA was generally favorable regarding his work in center field.
Well then Mr. Fangraphs let me put it this way. If Happ was such a ” Good” CF, Explain to me why Ross played the following dregs there all year:
1. Hermisillo
2. Ortega
3. Velasquez( who isn’t a dreg but struggled).
I’ll give you about 20 years to come up with an answer because there isn’t one. At least one that makes sense to anybody except his agent that is.
Not gonna lie… Only read the last paragraph of your book since I guessed thats where you were gonna throw another insult. But you are saying the Cubs don’t need another left handed bat and then put your foot in your mouth by saying the Cubs offense was horrible. You don’t even know which side of you mouth you wanna talk from.
The Cubs had holes in CF and 2B and yet Happ stayed in LF all season… hmmm… Wonder why…
Ok, Happ is good… Doesn’t mean he has to be extended.
Ok so he’s a trade candidate, why doesn’t this article talk about more possibilities than just the White Sox? It’s only talking about Happ’s stats.
I’m pretty disappointed. Based on the caption, when I opened the article I was hoping to read a story about how Ian Happ transformed himself into a minotaur. 🙁