The Diamondbacks had a quietly solid second half, setting themselves up for an interesting offseason. Arizona’s 73-89 overall record is obviously far from where they want to be, but the team has seen a number of young position players begin to produce at the major league level.
General manager Mike Hazen addressed the roster during his end-of-season media session yesterday. He provided a rundown of areas the club will look to address this winter (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).
Unsurprisingly, Hazen suggested that adding to the bullpen will be a priority. The D-Backs ran out a well below-average relief group for a third consecutive season, finishing the year 25th in ERA (4.58). Arizona relievers ranked last in the big leagues in strikeout rate (19.7%) and 28th in swinging strike percentage (10.9%). Hazen flatly stated improving the bullpen’s strikeout numbers will be a priority, suggesting the club will look into higher-velocity arms to that end.
Arizona added a pair of veteran relievers, Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, in free agency last winter. Kennedy was coming off an above-average 27.2% strikeout percentage with the Rangers and Phillies in 2021, but he stumbled to a 19% strikeout rate while losing a tick on his average fastball this season. Melancon hasn’t been a high-strikeout arm for years, and he posted a 4.66 ERA during his first season in the desert after posting a sub-3.00 mark in each of the previous two years. Melancon will be back next season on a $6MM salary, while Kennedy is a virtual lock to be bought out.
Of the 17 D-Backs relievers to top 10 innings pitched, only four had a swinging strike rate better than the 11.8% league average. Only one member of that group, All-Star lefty Joe Mantiply, is a lock to return. Arizona has already parted with Noé Ramirez, while Keynan Middleton and Caleb Smith were both extremely homer-prone and seem likely to be non-tendered.
The D-Backs aren’t going to make a run at a top-of-the-market free agent reliever like Edwin Díaz, but pitchers like Trevor May, Adam Ottavino and Miguel Castro are all hitting free agency after posting quality swing-and-miss numbers. Robert Suarez, who has a $5MM player option for next year with the Padres, and Carlos Estévez are among the hardest-throwing relievers who’ll be available. Hazen also suggested the front office would be more amenable than they’ve been in recent years to dealing young talent for relief help.
While the bullpen will be a key target area, it’s certainly not the only spot on the roster the D-Backs will be open to adding. Hazen indicated the club could look into offensive help, pointing to catcher as a position they could address. Carson Kelly has been the primary backstop for the past four seasons, but he’s never made the strides as a hitter the team had hoped when adding him as a central piece of the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Kelly looked as if he was on the way to his breakout with an excellent first two months in 2021, but that year was thrown off track by a right wrist fracture in late June. In the season and a half since that point, Kelly owns a .214/.287/.344 line in 526 trips to the plate.
While Hazen praised the 28-year-old’s defensive ability, he added that “chasing a little more offense at that position, given what the rest of the roster could look like, is something that we might take a look at.” It’d register as a surprise if they make a run at the top free agent at the position, Willson Contreras, but Arizona does have a fair amount of long-term financial flexibility. The Snakes have roughly $59MM on next season’s books (not including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players) and just $38MM committed by 2024.
There aren’t many definitive offensive upgrades other than Contreras available in free agency, but the trade market figures to feature a couple of the sport’s better two-way backstops. The A’s Sean Murphy will be eligible for arbitration for the first time and could be available as Oakland continues its roster overhaul. Murphy hit .250/.322/.426 through 612 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 points better than league average by measure of wRC+. It’s also possible the Blue Jays leverage their stockpile of catching depth for help elsewhere, moving a player like Danny Jansen on the heels of a .260/.339/.516 showing.
Whether at catcher or another position, Hazen suggested adding a right-handed bat to the mix was a possibility, as Arizona’s in-house lineup skews left-handed. Among their current projected regulars, only Kelly, first baseman Christian Walker and shortstop Nick Ahmed hit right-handed. Kelly, who’d be due a raise on this season’s $3.325MM salary via arbitration, could be non-tendered if the Snakes find an upgrade at catcher. Ahmed isn’t a lock to return to everyday duty after missing almost all of this season with a shoulder injury, and he’s a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist even when at full strength.
The D-Backs have a number of lefty-swinging outfielders, all of whom are capable of playing all three outfield spots. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho were top minor league talents, and both played well this season. Carroll didn’t make his MLB debut until late August, but both he and Varsho are guaranteed everyday reps going into next year. Jake McCarthy wasn’t the same level of prospect, but he hit .283/.342/.427 over 354 trips to the dish in 2022. Alek Thomas didn’t perform well in the majors, hitting .231/.275/.344 over 411 plate appearances. Still, he’s an excellent defensive outfielder and entered this season as a top prospect.
That quartet has varying levels of trade value — Carroll and Varsho would have more appeal than McCarthy or Thomas — but there’s reason for optimism among all of that group. It’s hard to envision the Diamondbacks parting with Carroll or Varsho, but dealing one of McCarthy or Thomas seems possible. Hazen unsurprisingly noted he doesn’t feel he has to trade anyone, pointing to the ability to rotate them through the designated hitter position, but he sounded amenable to a move in the right circumstance. “Take a left-handed hitting outfielder and turn him into a right-handed hitting slugger, yeah, I can see that puzzle coming together,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “It’s not going to be taking one of those guys and trading them for prospects in that type of way.”
Theoretically the D-Backs could also leverage their outfield depth to add starting pitching behind the top duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. While Arizona has a number of interesting young arms at or near the MLB level — Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt and Blake Walston among them — there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty with any unproven young pitcher. Madison Bumgarner, whom the club signed to a five-year deal to be the staff ace, hasn’t come close to matching his previous production in San Francisco. The four-time All-Star has an ERA of 4.67 or higher in all three of his seasons as a Diamondback, including a 4.88 mark with just a 16% strikeout rate through 30 starts this year.
Bumgarner has two years and $37MM remaining on his deal, and the D-Backs would be hard-pressed to find a taker for any notable portion of that money on the trade market. Hazen suggested the 33-year-old will have an inside track at a rotation job heading into next season but implied his leash could be getting shorter. “I do think incumbency probably matters when you’re going into spring training, for sure, especially with the younger guys that we have,” the GM said of Bumgarner’s status. “But if the expectation next year is going to be moving the ball forward from where we are right now, we are going to be making decisions that we need to make as we need to make them.”
D-Backs fans will want to read through Piecoro’s piece in full, as it contains myriad quotes from Hazen on the status of the roster and the organization’s offseason plans.
Diamondbacks are in an interesting place. They have 2 good starters in Gallen and Kelly. Walker is good at 1st base and their young outfielders are finally in the show. Bullpen is a huge concern obviously but it would make a lot of sense for them to go get Xander on the market to lockdown SS or 3B.
Kelly made 3.3 mil this year. Looks like destination is now back up role. Os need a back for Rutschman. Wonder if he’s on Os radar?
Kelly had a solid season as recently as 2021. Defensively, he might not be the best, but he far from bad. Kelly isn’t going to bring back a haul for the Diamondbacks, but for a backstop who could be a semi-regular or regular for some teams, the Orioles aren’t going to give up what the D-Backs are looking for if they view him as a 2nd catcher. He still has two more years of arbitration left and shouldn’t get a massive raise. Plus he’s not old either.
@mlb1225; great intel. Interesting. You’re talking up his O and I’m focusing on his D.
D alone, agreed, has him very part time. That said, if he has some bat pop, we need help at DH and backup help for Mountcastle at 1st (Anguilar looks like a bust at each position). Suddenly Carson is getting his fare share of playing time and Elias can justify paying him and giving up a prospect or 2? Plus, and of course, Rutschman gets a break every 4th or 5th game.
Yes? No? Maybe?
Charlie Sheen was a viable baseball prospect.
His real name?
Carlos Estevez.
Thanks for Goldie!
I’d be interested in bringing Carson Kelly back next season as well.
Their answers at C and to their OF logjam are one in the same…
It’s hard to move a guy out of the outfield after he had nearly +20 DRS in less than 120 games started in the outfield, especially since he’s way better in the outfield than behind the plate.
It is weird that Varsho wasn’t even mentioned when outlining the catching situation
Varsho is an elite OF defender and very average behind the plate. I believe his days as a catcher are over barring an emergency situation.
I can see the Diamondbacks signing Christian Vazquez. He will probably be the best available free agent catcher after Contreras, and he and Hazen and Lovullo have a history. Surprised he isn’t mentioned here.
The interesting statistic from Nick Piecoro’s article is that the Dbacks lost 42 games this year after leading or being tied in the 6th inning! Lack of offense could be blamed for a few of those losses, but it was primarily the fault of a disastrous bullpen, especially Closers. If the Dbacks could have won a third of those games, they would have been a .500 ball club this year. And if they had won 1/2 of those games they’d be a 90 win post season contender.
nice!
Bullpens are volatile. Effective bullpen arms one season can become HR prone disasters the next. That’s especially true of Closers.
The Dbacks rolled the dice last year by signing two Free Agent veterans, the number 1 Closer of 2021–Mark Melancon with 39 Saves and a 2.23 ERA—and Ian Kennedy, the number 11 Closer from 2021–with 26 Saves and a 3.20 ERA. Both blew up in 2022 and had disastrous seasons.
To replace them in 2022, the Dbacks turned to the Waiver Wire. Reyes Moronta was the most recent disaster example of that route.
I’d like the Dbacks to go another route this off-season. Instead of Free Agency or Waiver Wire claims, I’d like to see the Dbacks trade for a young Closer, not a retread veteran.
Specifically, I’d like to see them trade from their glut of young, left-handed hitting CFers—Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Dominic Fletcher, Dominic Canzone, or Pavin Smith—to get a young Closer like Emmanuel Clase (Guardians), Jordan Romano (Blue Jays), or Camille Doval (Giants).
It would take a haul and a half to get Clase or Romano. Doval could likely be available though, and wouldn’t be a horrible fit.
AverageCommenter
I agree with you that it would take a haul to get a young Closer via trade. But I will also say this. GMs know better than we do that bullpen arms/Closers are volatile. Whose to say that Clase, Romano or Doval might be disasters next year?
That volatility makes GMs value position players at premium positions higher than bullpen arms/Closers. So, I think offering a Top CF Prospect could be intriguing to a GM with a CF need.
Cleveland didn’t sign Clase to a lengthy extension BEFORE this year in order to deal him after a year of being an anchor to one of the league’s best bullpens. If you look at that extension, and how cheaply and for how long they have Clase, you’d realize how much of an untouchable he is to this up-and-coming team. You might want to take a look at contracts before you throw around ideas that have no merit.
Diaz from the Reds.
I wouldn’t even consider trading McCarthy. He’s actually able to hit both righties and lefties, has great speed on the base paths, steals bases, and plays decent defense.
The Cards could use a LH hitting CF option and as far I’m concerned, Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks are available. Make an offer.
Pass
Wait…Hard Pass
Wait….He!! No!
I don’t think they are far off from being a good team but I say this every year and the results aren’t there. Plus, they’re in a difficult division so that doesn’t help.
pwndroia
You make two good points. Dbacks have had a couple of waves of “Baby Backs” get us excited over the years. Although I get the feeling this wave has more Top Level prospects and depth to it compared to previous waves. So, I’m going with my enthusiasm this time!
Let’s hope, I’m sick of the Dodgers.
The other problem with the 2022 Dbacks was their extreme left-handedness, which resulted in vulnerability to left-handed pitching. It was so obvious that every opponent in the second half of the season threw every left-handed starter and bullpen arm they had at the Dbacks and had great success against the Dbacks for that reason.
The “right handed lineup” the Dbacks put on the field was almost a guaranteed loss. Luplow hit a few HRs, but otherwise was an automatic out. Stone Garrett got off to a fast start, but finished the last 15 games of the season with a .135 BattAvg. Another automatic out. Carson Kelly as a lead off hitter tells you all you need to know about this team weakness.
Three elite, right handed bats are coming (Dru Jones, Jordan Lawlar and Kristian Robinson), but won’t arrive immediately.
The Dbacks really need to trade some elite left handed CFers for some immediate right handed thump.
Can we still call Robinson elite when he hasn’t played in 3 years?
sidewinder
The immense raw talent is still there, and Robinson is still very young. He has been able to train and play in games where there is no paid attendance.
And the fact that the Dbacks added Robinson to their 40 man roster to protect him from being snatched up in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, should tell you all there is to know about whether or not the Dbacks and other MLB teams think Robinson’s elite talent has somehow vanished into thin air.
McCann and Scherzer to the Diamondbacks for a box of balls. 😉
That’ll show ‘em
AZ’s light at the end of the tunnel is the balanced schedule coming next year. That division isn’t letting up and they’ll never have the resources to outspend the Padres or Dodgers.
Would the DBacks have any interest in Manny Pina from the Braves? Good defensive catcher w/some power. Cheap on a 1 year deal. How about Pina and one of the Braves AAA starters (Muller, Elder, or Tarnok) for McCarthy or Thomas?
NashvilleJeff
Never. That sounds like giving a bag of peanuts for a Top 100 Prospect.
And, the Dbacks have 8 AAA Starters who are all better than Muller, Elder and Tarnok combined!
If the Dbacks trade McCarthy or Thomas it will be for a Closer or an established, veteran right handed hitting OF power bat. Not for a backup catcher. Hazen said he is NOT trading for prospects.
Last off-season, Hazen said he would give our plethora of young talent a shot this year…and that’s exactly what he did, with both position players and with young starting pitchers. Hazen tells you straight up what he is planning to do, then he does it.
So when Hazen says this off-season he is targeting upgrades for the bullpen and now willing to trade prospects, expect exactly that to happen. Let’s unpack that. Would Hazen trade Top 100 center fielder prospects for crap? Of course not. He is going for the top, young Closers in the league, or proven right handed power hitters. That is what he said.
Don’t post offers here for second string catchers or washed up pitchers. Read what the article says.
I’ll post whatever I want. I was interested in how an informed Arizona fan thought about a possible trade scenario that could improve their catching, but I got a tearful reply from an angry homer because the offer didn’t match his totally unrealistic evaluations of the 2 of’ers I asked about. Both are flawed and Arizona would be selling low on them. DBacks should deal both of them while they still have some trade value. Another year of the same performance won’t even bring you back “crap.” Btw, you obviously have no idea who the 3 Atlanta pitchers are. They’re strong prospects, not washed up old bums. Muller and Elder have had success in Atlanta and Tarnok is a young, highly rated power arm. You should know about “washed up pitchers” though because you watch them pitch every day for the DBacks. The article said that the DBacks were looking to add offense at the catching position. Pina isn’t the strongest name available, but he’s got power and is an excellent defensive catcher. I merely inquired what the DBacks might want in return for a couple of of’ers they might consider selling low on because they have a surplus of that type. No need for you to insult me because the offer doesn’t meet your uninformed, unrealistic expectations. Laughable that you’re near tears because you feel insulted by a someone making an honest enquiry on a trade scenario.
They don’t need to deal from that OF surplus, since Thomas clearly has mechanical issues with his swing that can be worked on in AAA (something that the team did with McCarthy early last season) and he’s a very good defensive CF that supplies value on the bases (although he could stand to get better jumps on SBs). Also, after McCarthy came back up he performed as a well above average player (he’s probably the worst defensive option of the 4 LHH OF, but he’s still CF capable with ELITE speed and solid bat control). They shouldn’t be selling low on either.
As far as C improvement goes, they’re looking more for a younger player with team control that fits the offensive identity of the team (which is why they’re trying to make Hummel work as a backup; decent strike zone discipline, sprays the ball to all fields, and a decent baserunner). A 35 year old (coming off of a wrist surgery) with limited control that’s overly reliant on power doesn’t really fit those criteria. I’m sure they’re willing to take a player that doesn’t necessarily fit the offensive identity to a T, but said player would have to be of an every day caliber with good defense and the ability to work a count with some regularity while also having multiple years of team control. There are enough backup options present already, another isn’t needed.
As far as the pitchers you listed Elder or Tarnok might draw some interest due to age, but the DBacks have Gallen/Kelly locked into the rotation and are stuck with Bumgarner. Nelson and Jameson have also shown enough promise to get first cracks at rotation spots, and neither Elder/Tarnok would supplant Pfaadt on the depth chart. They’re looking for immediate, controllable value, so those guys wouldn’t necessarily line up with what’s being sought. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that they have a plethora of superior options, but there are enough there to not necessitate a deal of that ilk. And if Hazen wanted to convert a SP to relief, there are already enough in house candidates.
FWIW, going onto Baseball Trade Values and inputting McCarthy for Elder, Tarnok, and Piña still isn’t enough value to be considered equal value going back to the DBacks (Manny is actually a slightly negative contract by their metrics). I would never suggest that these are 100% accurate estimates of value (due to the difficulty in projecting value of MiLB players), but BTV has a much MUCH lower estimate of McCarthy’s value than any of us in AZ see him being at, yet that’s still not sufficient value by their metrics. Scott was not wrong to suggest that that deal would be a relative pittance, because it definitely would be.
If you’re wondering about the agitation in the tone, we’re tired in AZ of being treated like a feeder team for major market clubs (having to watch the likes of Scherzer, Goldschmidt, and Swanson dealt away for pennies on the dollar; Brandon Webb having his career cut short only adds to the frustration). Especially after Stewart made a joke of the system and we’ve just now recovered with tangible evidence to corroborate it. Especially when it comes to the Braves, thanks to the Dansby Swanson debacle of a deal. It’s one thing to jokingly make a suggestion about a deal like the one you did; Hell, we do that all of the time among ourselves.
It’s still a funny (and sad) meme to us to this day, but to suggest it seriously is viewed as disrespectful in a large percentage of our eyes. It’s almost inadvertently suggesting that major markets are more deserving of the talent (that had been cultivated and we followed for years) than our fanbase is. Which is just patently untrue; we’ve had to watch some terrible teams with few bright spots in recent years, and we deserve to have a good time watching a team represent our community.
I appreciate your response. That’s the kind of analysis I was looking for in response to my suggestion. I certainly meant no disrespect to any DBack fan on here by making a trade proposal that you guys find undesirable. Your analysis makes sense w/regard to why you’d expect Hazen to reject that proposal and why you find it to be too weak an offer. I actually think the DBacks are a team on the upswing. Wish the Braves had something worth offering for one of the DBacks young of’ers that they seem to have a nice surplus of right now. I really wasn’t joking about that trade proposal. I just had no idea how you guys felt about Thomas and Mccarthy. To me, they seem like the two most expendable young of’ers the Dbacks have at the AAA/ML level. I seriously thought there might be an opportunity for the DBacks to move them if the organization feels like they’re excess pieces. I also thought they’d be good buy low targets. Again, I didn’t present a trade offer for them that was meant as a joke in any way. I get that you feel the offer’s too light and isn’t a fit for your needs—and from your pov (and after reading your thoughtful analysis), it’s obviously not acceptable. The Braves upper levels of the farm have little to offer in the way of position players. That’s why I suggested the 3 AAA starters (also not familiar enough w/the DBacks upper mil level pitching at this time.) Anyway—sorry for any unintended offense and thanks for your reply.
Hazen is lost when it comes to catching. Kelly is an average catcher at best, and is still starting because nobody wants to admit we bungled the Paul Goldschmidt trade (you will notice that Bumgarner wouldn’t even let Kelly catch him). In today’s game you need 2 solid catchers, not a non-hitting journeyman and 2 outfielders, which is what we had by the end of the season. We should have brought Miroglio up from triple A instead of Herrera to see what we have there (he just handled the staff for the team that just won the PCL championship). Gil Velasquez (triple A manager) called him “the heart and soul of the team”. I would love to get Murphy from the A’s but that doesn’t seem realistic.