After being eliminated from the postseason in 5 games by the division rival Padres, the Dodgers have turned their focus to the offseason earlier than expected coming off a 111-win campaign. This offseason is sure to be a significant one for the Dodgers, as Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Joey Gallo, and Craig Kimbrel are among their players who will test free agency this offseason, with it also being possible that Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger depart in the event that the Dodgers decline Turner’s club option and non-tender Bellinger.
Even with so much potential roster churn this offseason, shortstop appears to be the biggest question mark for LA headed into 2023 given Turner’s pending free agency. Even as Jon Heyman of the New York Post and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya both mention Turner’s willingness to sign with the club long term, Heyman mentions that the Dodgers “appear to have landed on” Carlos Correa as their preferred replacement for Turner in free agency while Ardaya notes that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been non-committal about continuing to spend well above the luxury tax going forward and has mentioned a desire to integrate the talent LA has at the upper levels of its farm system into the 2023 big league club.
As Ardaya notes, however, Jacob Amaya is the only shortstop in that group of upper-minors talent Friedman noted, and he was below average offensively at Triple-A this season, slashing just .259/.368/.381 across 84 games in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League. Thus, it’s worth looking more closely at the fit between Correa and the Dodgers.
At first glance, Correa may seem to be Turner’s equal or superior in most regards. Correa’s .291/.366/.467 slash line in 2022 shows him to have slightly outproduced Turner on a rate basis this season, as Turner slashed a slightly less impressive .298/.343/.466. Looking under the hood, it would also appear that Turner has more luck baked into his numbers this season than Correa, with Turner’s wOBA of .350 slightly outpacing his xwOBA of .335, whereas Correa’s .362 wOBA is a near match for his .363 xwOBA. In addition to comparing favorably to Turner with the bat, Correa’s reputation with the glove far outstrips that of Turner, as Correa has frequently rated well with defensive metrics throughout his career and even won the Platinum Glove in the AL last season.
Correa is also a bit over a year younger than Turner, who will celebrate his 30th birthday next June. That age gap should mean that Correa will project more favorably going forward than Turner. The Dodgers may also have interest in Correa due to his track record in the playoffs. After 334 trips to the plate during the postseason, Correa has posted identical marks of 130 wRC+ in both regular and postseason play, whereas Turner has managed a wRC+ of just 62 across his 197 postseason plate appearances.
Despite all these points in Correa’s favor, the comparison between him and Turner is far from cut-and-dry. While defensive metrics have significantly favored Correa in the past, they’ve soured on him in 2022, with OAA in particular strongly preferring Turner to Correa this past season. Turner is also among the best baserunners in the league, having swiped 230 bases in his career, including 27 in 2022. Correa, meanwhile, was caught stealing in his only 2022 attempt, and has rated negatively according to Fangraphs’s baserunning metric in each of the past three years.
Additionally, while Turner is a year older than Correa, he’s also been far more reliable in terms of staying on the field throughout his career. Turner has made just two trips to the injured list since the start of the 2018 season, while Correa had that many stints on the IL in 2022 alone. 2017 represents the only year of Turner’s career where he spent significant time on the IL, whereas Correa has spent significant time on the IL in 2017 and 2019 in addition to shorter stints each of the past two seasons. Even in a mostly healthy 2022 season, Correa took 118 less trips to the plate than Turner, whose 708 plate appearances were tied for second in all of baseball this season.
Correa and Turner aren’t the only options for the Dodgers this offseason, however. Of course, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts are expected to join Correa and Turner at the top of the free agent shortstop class this offseason, so it’s also feasible the Dodgers could explore signing either of them. Ardaya suggests that LA could look to utilize their farm system depth to explore the trade market in search of their new shortstop, and mentions Milwaukee’s Willy Adames as a possibility. Speculatively speaking, swinging a trade for a lower-cost option at shortstop could leave payroll space open for a potential pursuit of Aaron Judge, who the Dodgers have previously been reported to have interest in.
They want everyone
…or Heyman remains Boras’ mouthpiece.
It’s gotta be killing Heyman to not include the Yankees on SS rumors.
The new default “Mystery Team”.
Alright, the Phillies if they want they can go and sign Trea Turner.
No, the sportswriters wants them to want everyone. Big difference.
Who aren’t the Dodgers interested in?
The dodgers will sign Correa, re-sign Turner, sign Judge, move lux to third, re-sign kershaw, sign Rodon and call it a day
drasco036—And then, at the trade deadline—because they’re only 43 games ahead of the Padres—they sign Sandy Alcantara to a 10-year extension when the Marlins trade him to LA for Gavin Lux and two NEW cans of Penn tennis balls.
I thought it was for a sleeve of golf balls
arne23 — Sure, why not. I think the Dodgers can afford that.
Ewww
This isn’t surprising if true, however, since his high-AAV, short-length deal seems to fit LAD’s mold perfectly.
But, let’s face it, any big-market team with whispers of a possibility to look at the SS market is going to get this type of response.
Difference with the Dodgers is that they need one & actually have the stomach to sign another top-tier player.
Oh, and there’s that pesky little thing the Dodgers do every single season: improve their team to win the WS at all costs. Wish Hal could take just a smidge of that desire to win.
Spot on with the first paragraph Clip
Scary, don’t want this dude anywhere near the team. It would honesty be a fragmented message to the fanbase with possible stinky leftover feelings of this has now become Fantasy Baseball
Couple that with hitting a downswing by chance the next couple years you will have a circus come some random summer day in 2025 when Correa doesn’t run out a groundball
We are just saying the ugly good-byes to Bauer, I hope Andrew is baking all this Risk into the pie while fully knowing there’s no need to assume ANY today.
This could just be posturing, this could just be a message to Lad fans to realize Trea isn’t coming back (what I’ve been thinking for awhile now, but I hope Andrew at least see’s the huge blowback that this could have here shortly
@YankeeClipper
Correa only signed that contract with the Twins because he ran out of suitors. With Boras his agent now, he will be looking for a long term contract.
Lolz…something tells me this fanbase won’t be cool with this if it comes to fruition
I can’t imagine the Dodgers would be dumb enough to sign Correra. He was a cheater on the Astros and wouldn’t fit well in the clubhouse. Players on the 2017 team are still there. He would never be welcomed. He would be booed by Dodger fans including myself.
Los Angeles Store-Boughts.
The Dodgers also want a non-Covid infested title. Too bad they won’t.
¿Que?
In 2020 did they get to play the worst teams in the playoffs? I’ve never understood this reasoning but so many people regurgitate it. The Dodgers bookended 2020 with seasons above 100 wins, so clearly they were a great team that year
Completely agree. The circumstances were the same for all teams so why does there need to be an asterisk?
As a Giant’s fan I also agree. Nitpicking about the Dodgers winning in a different format seems small and petty. Every team had the same chance to win that year. I guarantee people wouldn’t be saying anything like that if their team had won.
Yep winning a title after playing .717 ball and following it ip with 106 and 111 win campaigns screams illegitimate champion
Didn’t say it was illegitimate. They won it deservingly and clearly, they were the best team in the sport. With that being said, the Dodgers want/ed more rings and their chances are slightly diminishing with each year. Winning a championship in 2020 just does not have a nice ring to it no pun intended.
The article said the Dodgers might go for a lesser option at short and pass on Swanson, Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. They’re willing to sacrifice defense and Turner’s 100 RBi so they can sign another big name. Do they really think Judge wii have the same numbers in 2023 that he did in 2022?
I don’t think any team thinks Judge will repeat 2022, but he doesn’t have to, to still be valuable. I’d stay away from him, but the first few years of that contract should provide surplus value and someone is going to take the risk.
@baumgarner
I wouldn’t say Acuna is a headache, he has one “bad” season even with an OPS+ of 114. He is probably a little lazy but he makes up for it when he is playing like he did in 19-21. He may not have put up superstar numbers but there are sure as hell a lot of teams that would like him on their side. I don’t know why you have had this vendetta against Acuna for so long. Show me the numbers where Dansby is a better hitter over his career than Acuna? (Other than batting average, this isn’t 1982.) Swanson has been a below average hitter in every full season besides his contact year according to WRC+. I could care less if he is back, Xander is the real prize in the FA market.
Despite all of that, Swanson has given the club more both on and off the field than Acuna, whose performances have been more inconsistent and interspersed with bouts of laziness and clear lack of care. Both Acuna and Ozuna are a plague to this team.
Trea is a Dodger and for a long time. Period. He said he likes it in LA. And of the high end FA SSs available seeking long term deals this off season, he’s the one that will still be a main cog in the teams productivity in years 5 and 6. Dodgers FO folks are not fools. Whatever it takes to keep him, is there mantra.
There’s no comparison between Trey and Carlos. Trey is a young 30 with a small injury history, Correa is an old 28 with extensive injury history. Also, with all do respect to all the O stats with fancy acronym IDs, looks like Trey’s RBI production is trending in the right direction, Carlos’s is not and this rings true regardless of Astros, Twins, Nationals and Dodgers team OBPs over the years.
You mean the Xander who only hit 15 homers in 2022 despite playing the majority of his games in the AL East bandboxes (apologies to Baltimore who did the right thing for their pitchers by moving their fences back)? The Xander who’s constantly mentioned as being likely to move off SS to 3B so the team that makes the mistake of signing him can hide his defensive weakness? The Xander that shouldn’t be mentioned in the “Big 4 Shortstop” FA controversy? The Xander that the team who knows him best apparently has no interest in re-signing? Xander’s the “real prize in the FA market” among the shortstops all right——the booby prize. Bet I’m not the only Braves fan who hopes Philly gets stuck w/him. No chance the Braves consider him. They thrive on good infield defense.
I won’t be upset if X ends up replacing Swanson at SS. They can always move him to left field if needed and just keep Grissom at SS. Trade Acuna w/ Ozuna’s contract in there and build another winner.
Ronald Acuna Jr. = 17.6 WAR
Dansby Swanson = 14.5 WAR
Want to try to tell us Swanson has been worth more to the Braves again? The numbers don’t support your argument.
Calling him a “plague” makes you look foolish.
2021 ring does
No, it doesn’t. Acuna Jr. was hurt during the World Series. Dansby wasn’t.
Which proves my point that Acuna is not needed to win a ring, hence he is not as valuable as people think.
Wait, you mean this season? Haha, gotta love the excuses for these millionaires. He was fine. He didnt hit all season since coming back. It is called pitchers stopped throwing him fastballs down the middle as their first pitch
Grissom at SS would mean the Braves FO has decided they don’t care about winning. Imo, Grissom isn’t capable of playing a competent ML SS. He was brutally bad at 2B, and has even less range at SS. It’s true that he hit his first 15 games in the ML before being exposed. He spent most of his at bats after his 1st 2 weeks up fouling off pitches because he couldn’t make solid contact. The FO finally (thank goodness) grew tired of watching his pitiful ab’s and cringeworthy 2B play and benched him. If the Braves field a single decent offer for him in the off season, they should deal him before the miniscule trade value he has totally disappears. He’s the next Jose Peraza—-just another highly rated prospect from a weak farm system destined to disappoint. Btw, I can’t stop laughing at your “trade Acuna w/Ozuna’s contract” diatribe. Even if the Braves foolishly decide to deal Acuna, why would they dilute the awesome return they’d get for him by shedding 32 mill of Ozuna? Better off releasing the sunk cost of Ozuna’s deal than ruining Acuna’s trade value. Take a deep breath and stop indulging your distaste for Acuna w/the fever dream fantasy that’s apparently taken over your (rational?) mind. If the Braves FO signs X, I predict you’ll change your screen name after the 1st month of the season to “WhatIdiotMadeTheDecisionToSignThe AwfulnessOfXanderAndOhYeahTradeAcuna.” Signed….a Braves fan who cares about your mental health and believes that there’s still hope for you.
@nashvillejeff
Less homers but far more production. There’s these websites called fangraphs and baseball reference where you can actually look at the production overall instead of homers! Maybe before bashing me for liking someone who has been far more consistent then Swanson look at the numbers man. 5 straight years of all-star level production. Oh and btw Xanders defensive metrics went up a ton this year. Even if he regressed defensively I’d still take his high OPS and WRC numbers. Get back to me sweetheart;).
@tradeacuna
At least we can agree about Ozuna bro lol.
And also take a Xanax to calm down. You are getting way to worked up about a.peaceful conversation about baseball.
Before his injury, Acuna carried the team in the first half of 2021.
I think you are a bit to harsh on Grissom, especially given his sample size. Defensively, I agree, he will likely be a liability (especially compared to Swanson). Hitting wise, I think he is better than what you perceive.
If the Braves sign X, he will be their best hitter without any doubt. Whether he is worth investing in, is a different story.
Your point regarding putting Acuna in a trade with Ozuna is fair. I don’t care how they do it. Just trade Acuna already.
To TARS, Swanson is the white choice.
No it doesn’t prove your point. Lol. The Braves had to go out and acquire 4 outfielders in his absence, and as luck would have it all 4 caught fire at some point. You think the Braves acquire 4 OFs if they share your opinion?
Trading Acuna is one of the most terrible ideas in the history of terrible ideas. I honestly hope they extend him 30 more years just so you’d stop banging this drum.
You can speculate all you want. The Braves won a ring without their “best” player. This season, they tanked in the playoffs and Acuna was nowhere to be found other than staring at Harris.
Nobody bashed you, so calm down and take your own Xanax (I don’t need drugs to cope w/life, sorry for you if you do though.) I merely interjected a little humor into the conversation. If you’re going to invoke fangraphs to bolster your opinion on X, take a look at his 2022 numbers. Career high babip (52 points higher than 2021 and 24 points higher than any previous season), a 40 point difference between his wOBA and xwOBA, huge 80 point drop in ISO. Aren’t those numbers of more use in determining player performance as opposed to opinion based statements like “All star level production” and “I’d still take his high OPS”? Just a thought, but I wonder if the 9% drop in K% coupled w/the large decrease in power indicates that his decline has begun (possibly sacrificing power to make more contact due to loss of bat speed?). Fangraphs has Swanson’s fwar at 6.4 compared to X’s 6.1. Seems like pretty comparable value even though Swanson’s is a bit higher. X w/134 wrc, Swanson 116 wrc. Btw, Swanson’s wOBA and xwOBA are an exact match at .337 in 2022. X’s 40 point lower xwOBA (.323) than wOBA (.363.) is a huge 46 point drop in 2022’s xwOBA from 2021(.359) X w/very similar wOBA 2022(.363), 2021 (.368). Wonder if the Red Sox analytic department sees X as a rapidly declining offensive asset whose uptick in defensive value will regress, or is the apparent disinterest in extending him based solely on financial considerations. Still see projections from different sources that X will get the 3rd highest FA deal in the Big 4 SS bidding, w/Swanson coming in 4th behind him in total dollars on most projections.
I hope I’m being too harsh on Grissom, TradeAcuna. As a Braves fan, I’d like very much to be totally wrong about my evaluation of him. I’d be glad to be the one suffering from a fever dream where he’s concerned, lol. Btw—-no possible way X is a better hitter than Austin Riley—or Acuna.
Bro the dodgers won 111 last year. They won ~25 more games than the Braves did when the won the title in 2021. LAST YEAR.
Nothing is diminished. Get over it. The dodgers will be here every freakin year. It’s been a decade of consistency already. Accept it and deal with it. They aren’t going anywhere
Mmmmmm..boob ies
@nashvillejeff
I’m more interested in his career production. Seriously look at the numbers he has put up the past 5 years. There is something to be said for consistency. The fact is Swanson has only had one season of above average offensive production. I may be wrong but I value offensive production far more than defensive metrics. I’m sorry if I was being a an a$$, I just don’t get how you could look at Bogaerts consistent production and think he is a bad player. Anyways if I was out of line I apologize, I’m not afraid to admit when I made a mistake, especially when I’m talking to a fellow Nashville resident (I live in hermitage.)
X is a better hitter than Riley and Acuna… at least through the past few years.
@tradeacuna
Yeah bro I like Xander a lot. He’s got a well rounded approach at the plate. He for some reason reminds me of Michael Brantley, (who I also desperately want.) What do you think about Brantley?
No apology needed Mariana, but thanks—and I don’t consider an opinion different from mine to be a mistake! Hermitage….. Awesome. I’m over near Tusculum/Old Hickory Blvd. Yeah, undeniable that X has been very productive over his last 5 years. I really don’t think he’s terrible (definitely was trying to be funny w/my assessment of him.), I just don’t trust his defense to remain good enough to stick at SS. The Braves would have nowhere to play him if he couldn’t stay on SS w/Riley, Albies, and Olson in their infield long term. Very much doubt—imo—that they’d get decent value from the salary he’ll get to consider moving him to left field. Think it would be too much money to pay for that position. I’m also unsure that he’s going to remain a solid offensive player. Maybe his power will uptick after this season, but imo (again, lol) if it doesn’t, there’s not enough value for his likely salary to play him in a corner outfield spot. Enjoyed talking w/you, hope I see you again on here.
Mariana: Brantley’s an excellent veteran contact hitter they could sign at a (probably) reasonable price. Braves could use more solid contact hitters in the lineup, and left field’s the only place they’ve got room to add one (unless it’s at SS), so Brantley would definitely be a good fit. Can he stay healthy? Not too sure about that. So many problems w/his shoulder and coming off season ending surgery. Dicey sign, imo. Also have to consider the “what do they do w/Ozuna and Rosario” dilemma when thinking about adding of’ers.
Ok TradeAcuna, X had better wrc (134) in 2022 than Acuna (114)—-but Riley’s wrc was 142. Acuna has also posted better wrc than Xander 3 of the last 5 years. Since Riley’s breakout in 2021 (his 1st full season in the ML w/over 300 ab’s), he’s posted higher wrc than X in both 21 and 22. Riley also only has 4 years (19-22) of stats to compare the 3 players w/2019 being his rookie season (only 297 PA in 2019, 206 PA in 2020 strike year.) The past 5 years is just that—–the past. I’ll take Riley and a healthy Acuna’s futures as 25 year old players w/upside over Xander. Not saying X is a bad player or that I think he’s falling off the cliff immediately, but decline comes for every player as they age into their 30’s.
Yeah health is a big deal for Brantley, but if he is I feel like he can be a FAR more productive version of Nick Markakis.
Take two. Try a sentence that makes sense.
Turner is the better ball player.
I respectively disagree. They’re both very good, no denying.
Both fairly even on offense depending on which stats you look at.
Correa has the edge defensively and is known to be clutch.in the postseason.
However, the fact that Correa is a Boras client makes it more unlikely that he signs with LA. If you look at the history of this front office, they’ve never signed a Boras client as a FA although they’ve been in the running for many.
Turner had a better lineup around him but
He led in Hits 194-152, SB 27-0, Runs 101-70, RBI 100-64
Yup gotta go with Turner over Correa.
Ok, Bruin – makes sense. I like Turner’s instincts & speed as key separators. Certainly both talented ball players.
So despite inferior numbers across the board, except for baserunning, Turner is somehow better? Does having better speed trump everything else? There’s a reason Friedman appears to prefer Correa over Turner. .
Last three years, Turner leads all MLB SS in WAR (even though it’s biased toward defense), is second to tatis in WRC+ and wOBA… nice article that only looks at one year… and considering staying healthy matters, then it’s not even as close as the numbers might suggest
Again, Correa hasn’t had any significant injury since 2019. His only time on the IL in 2022, was from a HBP, and COVID. A some point the repeated ‘can’t stay healthy’ will be seen for what it is.
It makes no sense that WAR is biased toward defense. Over the last 3 seasons Turner has -5 DRS, and -2 OAA. Over that same span Correa has 30 DRS, and 14 OAA. Correa is the better by far with the glove.
It’s hard to go wrong with either one with the bat. I’d be happy if my team signed either. But, at a premier position, second only to catcher, given a choice between the two, I’d take the younger, better fielder.
But he did miss time last year – even 20-25 games counts
And yes, war overstates defensive value, always has… to see some of the war numbers inflate the value of players is almost laughable sometimes
Yes, both are good, but Turner is clearly better
In 2022 Correa missed games due to a HBP and COVID. Both of which could easily happen to every guy in MLB. In 2021 he played 148 games.
It still makes no sense that Turner would have a higher WAR if WAR favors defense, since Correa is the better defensive player by far. You just saying so doesn’t convince me. Show me some concrete facts that indicates how defense skews WAR, and I’ll accept it. But until then…
It just shows how much better turner has been offensively, plus war gets hurt by time missed and Correa misses more time.
Okay, easy example.. 2020, Swanson and seager…
OPS seager 943 Swanson 809
WRC+ seager 149 Swanson 115
WAR Swanson 2.3 seager 2.1
There’s no planet Swanson was more valuable than seager that season. He would’ve had to save a run a game w his defense, which obviously isn’t realistic anyway. Just one easy example but we could do this all day.
Your example of Seager and Swanson is the reverse of Correa and Turner. Where the better defender Swanson had the higher WAR, the better defender Correa had a lesser WAR. So again, saying that WAR has a bias toward defense, does not make sense.
And over the last 3 seasons Turner has played all of 25 more games than Correa, who missed time due to HBP, and COVID.
What are you talking about? I said war overrates defensive value. It’s the only way Correa is even in the conversation w Turner, because of his defense. I was saying that WAR made it so that Correa was moderately comparable bc of his defense, which he’s really not. The missed games still hurts his war btw, so if he had played those 25 games the war would have been even closer – that’s what I was saying. I know you want to minimize the fact that one of them has a much greater injury history than the other.
Since the consensus opinion (which you obviously do not share), is that the two are similar in hitting, your assertion that WAR favors defense, makes no sense. The only way you could make any logic out of your belief is if Turner was miles better than Correa with the bat. He isn’t, and all the numbers back that up.
Turner could have easily lost time to a HBP, and COVID. That’s just bad luck when that happens, and is absolutely no indication of an injury-prone player.
I do agree that the part of the difference in WAR is that Turner did play in 25 more games over the last 3 years. But Turner is also helped by his baserunning. Correa does get more WAR from his defense,
But to suggest Correa’s WAR is vastly inflated because he’s better with the glove, doesn’t make sense logically. I could use that same logic and say WAR is unduly influenced by baserunning and that’s why Turner’s WAR is higher. Neither is true.
Agree.
And….Correa’s offensive stats are skewed. We don’t know how clutch he is without knowing which pitch is coming, honestly.
lol touche
Said the fan of the team that invented the sign stealing system the Astros used in 2017.
Correa is better than Turner overall but Correa is injury-prone and won’t live up to the contract he gets. Which ever teams signs him will pay for him to be a DH the last half of the contract. Turner will be the better overall signing because he’s not as injury-prone and younger and fans don’t hate his guts. Correa is a clubhouse cancer, toxic, and a cheater
Correa hasn’t lost significant time to injury since 2019.
Keep in mind, with the changes in the rules next season, running is going to be a much bigger part of the game. A player like Turner, if he gets on first, he’s almost guaranteed to be scoring position. Everybody in baseball already knows this and so do the Dodgers.
No one knows yet how any of the rule changes will affect play; it’s all conjecture. I agree that it’s reasonable to think Turner will benefit from an increased running game, though I still don’t see that as a complete offset of Correa’s better offensive numbers. I also see base-stealing as having an elevated risk of injury.
But, as rule changes go, I would think a better glove will be more valuable with shifts being limited. That would then favor Correa over Turner.
First, career batting lines:
Turner: .302/.355/.487/.842
Correa: .291/.366/.467/.834
Hmm.
Second, of course they know. These changes are designed to resurrect the running game, and they will.
Instead of career batting lines, how about career park adjusted stats?
Correa: 140 wRC+, 140 OPS+
Turner:: 124 wRC+, 122 OPS+
And the game is more than just hitting. Career defensive metrics.
Correa: 70 DRS, 23 OAA
Turner: 9 DRS, 13 OAA
And again, there are more changes than just those to encourage running. And they may make the better fielder more valuable than they were with extreme shifts.
If Correa was anything but a POS the Astros would’ve made sure to keep him. Correa is a down grade from Gavin Lux being Lux is healthier.
Just keep digging for stats until you find one you like. How about this one? Stolen bases over the last three seasons:
Turner 71
Correa 0
The changes are more than just to benefit the running game, but that argues against my point not one iota.
Correa is the better defender, but it’s a little unrealistic to expect that SS is going to be the position impacted by the limits on shifting. The biggest impact will be on the right side, where the extreme shifting is found now. Logically, the defensive upgrades that will be valued the greatest next season will be at 2B. That, and LH pitching.
Please, keep this civil without cheap shots. OPS+ and wRC+ are not exactly stats that one has to dig for. In fact, those are two of the most relevant stats available.
And how often are we going back to the running game? IMO we can agree to disagree about how important the running game is compared with defense. Since there’s not a lot to separate them with the bat, for SS, I’d much rather have the better defender.
I don’t think it was a cheap shot to point out that offensively Correa isn’t clearly better, a point with which you now seem to agree. And in fact no stat is the most relevant. All stats only tell you what they tell you, which is why you should look at more than one or two. None of them rule.
Not sure what you are saying about the running game. My only point here is the rules have been changed to make it more important again, and teams will take this under consideration when signing players. Also in drafting and developing them, very likely. Who I’d rather have is besides the point.
It was a cheap shot to say I had to dig to find stats to bolster my opinion. No one has to dig to find wRC+ or OPS+. Both are right there on BB Ref, and Fangraphs.
I never said wRC+, and OPS+ were the only important stats, but they are definitely better than single focus stats like BA, or OBP. They combine multiple offensive numbers. And clearly MLBTR thinks they are important stats. Or is MLBTR digging for stats when they do articles on hitters to justify some bias?
I have been more than willing to agree that Turner has a speed advantage. But again no one knows how quantitatively Turner will benefit from the rule changes. He had 27 SBs in 30 attempts in 2022. Will the changes result in 35, 40, 50 SBs for him? Neither you or I know. It could be the rule changes are manifested among more marginally successful base-stealers.
You’ve mentioned the running game over and over, but ignore the fact that base stealing elevates injury risk. And you’ve also ignored the importance of Correa’s vastly better defense in regards to new rules limiting the shift.
If they played CF, I’d probably prefer Turner. But they play SS, and I will always take better defense over speed at that position. Especially since Correa is over a year younger.
Sorry you take it that way, but my comment is really just based on what I see here regularly. A common response to a discussion is The One Stat That Rules Them All argument. Usually it’s WAR in whatever flavor works best, or one of the deeply flawed defensive metrics. And be fair, you did say two stats were the “most relevant.” This is certainly debatable.
I’m not ignoring anything, though your point about injuries from running the bases seems pretty specious. All that aside, I believe the changes in the rules are deliberately designed to encourage base-stealing. If you have another theory, have at it. I’d be willing to put fair money on this changing how teams evaluate players who are already good at it, and that teams are running the numbers like crazy at this very moment. We will find out in a matter of weeks or months who was right.
And again, I haven’t stated a preference. All I know for certain is if the Dodgers don’t want to go backwards at SS that they have really only two choices. I also know that one of these choices is a player the fans really like and the other is one they hate. Maybe that will influence management’s decision, and maybe it won’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t choose either of them and instead decide to go cheaper.
I did not say those stats were the “most relevant”. What I did say was that they “are two of the most relevant stats available”. That’s different. It makes it appear, taking things out of context, like you’re trying to twist my words.
Calling the increased injury risk of base stealing “specious” ignores the fact that teams have limited SB attempts due to the wear and tear on the body, especially with older players. Ricky Henderson was an outlier in that regard.
Turner entering his age 30 season probably has only a few more years to cash in on those rule changes. Since he’s probably looking for something like 8 years, having him as a premier base-stealing threat for only 3-4 years of that deal limits his value IMO.
I also think a team has to go after the player they see as the better one. The fact that the fans hate any particular player should be irrelevant. I’d bet that Friedman sees it that way as well.
Talk about a distinction without a difference. If you meant something different than what you said, it isn’t my fault. You are welcome to clarify what you meant. I’m listening.
I’ve never seen any backup for your claim about base stealing being a significant health risk. You haven’t presented anything more than a surmise. In reality the decline in that part of the game is a product of analytics. That’s the risk being calculated, the one MLB hopes to alter by the rule changes. They want to make the running game pencil out better. So again, if you believe it was done for some other reason, you haven’t said what it is.
Friedman and the Dodgers care more than you will allow about what the fans think. The fans are the paying customers, and I don’t believe ownership has totally lost track of who pays the bills. And for at least the third time, I am not stating a preference, just laying out what I believe are some of the decision making parameters.
So I guess it’s okay for you to surmise what the effect the rule changes will have when they’ve haven’t even been in practice yet. But I’m wrong to deduce an increased injury risk, when in my experience, I’ve heard about a team discouraging base stealing attempts to try and keep a guy healthy,
In truth, I assumed it was common knowledge that stealing bases came with an increased injury risk. I do remember Mike Trout being out for a while after tearing a thumb ligament attempting to steal. But believe me I didn’t make up the risk of injury from stealing. I found nothing to statistically back it up, but it gets mentioned in multiple articles. Here’s one:
espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18244…
“If you meant something different than what you said, it isn’t my fault.”
You misinterpreting what I said, while ignoring what I actually did say is your fault. These are quotes, copied and pasted from earlier:
BlueSkies_LA: “…you did say two stats were the “most relevant.””
tad2b13: “…those are two of the most relevant stats available.”
Two of the most relevant, not the most relevant. If you can’t see the difference between those two, you are a hopeless case, and not worth spending anymore time or energy on.
25 teams interested in Correa.
Plus 5 “mystery” teams per Heyman
count me out! #Reds
Along with Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Baltimore.
And the Nashville expansion team too, according to Nightengale…
None of the Correa rumors mention the fact that he is a trash can Astro who is reviled by dodger fans. Going from fan fav Turner to cheater Correa? I can’t believe the front office is that stupid.
DT…yes, MLBTR should have mentioned that the fan base in LA wants nothing to do with this guy, nothing…
Pretty sure the front office does not care even a little bit about what the fans think or want
Rsox;
Maybe not. But I think the financial people that own the franchise do.
The Dodgers are marketed in the area as good clean fun. They bring in Correa – or any of the Astros involved in the cheating – when they want the fans to forget about the Bauer signing……
Correa is not Bauer though in the sense he doesn’t bring divisive opinions/behavior with him. Correa has put up solid numbers since the days of the trash can. If the Dodgers think Correa fits the fans will come around.
Sammy sputtered out a really good post…,,well said
The FO does, guys like Reddick and Machado were not brought back. Both were POS.
Hey Don — you realize LA was also stealing signs back then, right?
Who told you that? Josh Reddick?
Simply google “Dodgers sign stealing” & do some reading…
Or read the commissioners report.
Or the front office knows that fans will grow up when he is actually on their team?
They still have the stain of Trevor Bauer signing hanging over them, do they need the headache of all the uproar there would be over Correa? What would Kershaw think? Etc.
What’s Bauer got to do with Correa? Bauer had plenty of red flags. He was a gamble that Friedman lost. There’s more than enough evidence of Correa’s character, and ability. Dodger fans may dislike him now, but after they see what he can do for their team, that dislike will wane.
Who told you that? Josh Reddick?
Great point, Don.
Exactamento. Anyone who thinks Correa playing for the Dodgers would go over with the fan base hasn’t been to a game when he appeared at Dodger Stadium. He’s booed, loudly, from start to finish. If any current player is more hated by Dodger fans than Correa, I can’t think of who it might be.
Jose Altuve and Manny Machado
Those two are a distant second.
Machado.
100000% AGreed Blue
This MLBTR post is frightening as I actually see validity in it
Don’t do it Andrew, things change, you have a rabid fanbase that adores the team right now.
Yet Dodgers fans cheer Betts. Despite him being on a team that cheated his way to a ring, in 2018. But that’s different, because everyone expects the Roid Sox to cheat and no one blinks an eye
Guess y’all are more childish than most of the fan base. Assuming he is producing, Correa would get boo’d for 2 month’s max
If he’s playing good baseball, fans are fickle with a short memory. Not hard to imagine him getting massive cheers in a years time
Guess y’all haven’t noticed that Correa (and Altuve) are booed whenever they show up at Dodger Stadium, five years later. Fans have a longer memory and are less fickle than you believe.
If it comes down to a choice between Correa and Turner, no question which one the Dodgers should sign.
Manny Machado is who…
Would prefer Trea but Correa a good fallback option! Go after DeGrom or Rodon and make a push for Diaz as Closer! Dodgers have a lot of money coming off the books, could be doable if they say goodbye to CK, Belli, JT, Bauer and several other low end contracts!
@Terry B
Except Bauer won’t be off the books until after 2023, right?
Bauer is already off the books.
book’em danno, he’s under po-po scrutiny…
Please never put Kershaw in the same sentence with Bauer
Testify, brother.
“Trea Turner to 3B”
tampering
They’re doing it to stick it to Kim Ng.
Nottinghamforest: Robin Hood or the Premier League?
EPL for the moment. Looks like we’re heading straight back down.
Good. Correa won’t fail to make a game tying productive out like Trea did TWICE in the playoffs. The Dodgers core hasn’t earned the right to complain about potentially getting him. Shouldn’t have looked like a soulless team without any fight in the playoffs.
“Correa is a bit over a year under the age of Turner” tf he’s 7 years younger
Turner currently 29, Correa currently 28. Turner is 15 months older
Trea is 29
Correa is 28
You are thinking of Justin Turner, the article is talking about Trea Turner.
ummmm…try Trea Turner, not Justin.
Because Correa has no Qualifying Offer attached to him he will be in big demand this off season.
It only makes sense, let Trea Turner go, pick up a draft pick when he signs elsewhere and sign Correa. But the Giants will be competing for him to, driving up Correa’s price tag.
I didn’t think Correa would get more than Seager’s 10/$325M deal but now I think he does and it’s all because there’s no QO attached to him.
Not even close
CC is the reason why CC hasn’t had the truck backed up yet, not the QO
Not true. The biggest factor in Correa not getting the long term deal he wanted, was the lock out.
Correa is a stats accumulator
Yeah and so is Aaron Judge
Except Correa actually has worthy post season stats
Little easier when you know what pitch is coming
Alternate headline: Dodgers desperately looking for anyone who won’t choke in the playoffs…
Farhan Zaidi is going to be extremely busy this off season..
So there’s absolutely zero substance to this other than Heyman saying “they appear to have landed on Correa as their preference,” and then nothing to back that up.
Absolutely horrible reporting.
It’called Trade RUMORS
What’s the over under on how many free agents they collude with before Manfred does something?……ok you’re right all of them.
Who are they, and what are they saying?
What does that even mean?
They. Them. It’s how people think now.
If I had to pick between the two, I’d pick Correa. If I’m picking from all four, I’m picking Dansby Swanson.
Agree Cincyfan……..signed, a Braves fan.
Jameson Tallion would be a nice addition to replace Tyler Anderson. Trea Turner stays and Dodgers get another Yankee in Aaron Judge. That would be their major FA signings. They will seek some upper level guys in their own system and make a trade for a guy like Mitch Keller from Pittsburgh who can be 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation. I feel Kershaw resigns on a one year with the Dodgers and the ace. I also think Healy remains with the club. Rotation would be Kershaw, Tallion, Keller, Healy, and upper minor league rookie. May not look great on paper, but I think that rotation is enough to get to the World Series again with Betts and Judge anchoring the offense
Why would they sign Judge and move Betts to 2nd base. Mookie stated he would, but I just don’t see it happening
Where in that rotation you propose is Beuhler, Urias, Gonsolin, or May? And who the hell is Healy ??
Correa has problems staying on the field. No thank you.
Think the Dodgers are in on Carlos Rodon?
*4 games.
Judge- Giants
Correa- Dodgers
Turner- Cubs
Swanson- Braves
Boegarts- Red Sox/Phillies
Switch Correa and Turner around. Correa going to Chicago. Boegarts to Philly. Judge would rake in SF but he’s not going there. No way Farhan pays the freight. Wherever Judge ends up it will be with a few opt outs. Maybe the Dodgers cough it up for him if they end up parting ways with everyone mentioned in the article other than Trea. 300m payroll? Still probably won’t buy another WS title.
Correa is not the type of player you want a long term deal. Baseball aside, injuries and his personality.
The only way I see him as a Dodger is in the short term deal 1/37m, 2/70m range in case no one gives him 10/280m.
My guess is he gets the long term deal with a non contender.
The only interest Dodgers have on Judge and Correa is to push the price up to take SF out.
Tigers offered Correa 275m for a decade
Why don’t you tell us how you really feel
Penpen. Tell us how you really feel
Good, then Turner to the Cubs!
Correa is not worth a nickel more than he’s already making.
Mets sign Correa for 3B. Escobar to DH. Baty to AAA then DH and backup 3B/1B.
NOBODY in their right mind would believe the Dodgers would be interested in Correa the cheater and ex-Asstro at that!
I honestly don’t care who they get, just as long as the contract is not over 5 years. It Trea and Carlos are demanding 7-10 years, I’d be happy to have a platoon of Taylor and Lux at short.
Look, a team with the resources of the Dodgers will be interested in any ‘star’ ballplayer. This is low-hanging fruit for sure.
Who do you want in the dugout. Turner or Correa. Character matters.
Correa, because ability manners more.
Dodgers are interested in anyone on two legs.
You’re right, I guess Trea Turner doesn’t have a leg to stand on?
Please please please pass AF; Dude should always be seen as a villain out here
The ability to net a 5 yr deal will dazzle Andrew’s eyes relative to the 8~10 Trea will get. tho
I’m content with Jose Iglesias and Lux splitting the Ss duties
Roll the money into an early Julio ext
We (Dodgers fans) need to get over the Astros. You really just said you’d rather have Jose Iglesias. Do you even want to win a title? This team should not be limiting their options to improve
Just goes to show as soon as they leave Houston they stopped getting booed and can go anywhere.
This is all a smokescreen. Just like the Judge rumors.
Probably true. Judge will re-sign w/ Yankees or the Mutz
News Flash!!! This just in… the Dodgers are interested in all the good ball players.
Dodger are going to get Mr. 62 and Correa and the top market pitcher cause they have endless money.
Endless?
There is one thing that needs to be cleared up. This whole notion that CC is a “cancer in the clubhouse.” If that was ever the case (and I’m skeptical it ever was), it’s completely in the past now. His teammates adore him, he is a leader in the clubhouse, everyone in the Twins front office can’t get over how much he improved the clubhouse camraderie with his leadership and mentoring. The guy understands baseball like a professor and cares deeply about his team winning. I think he would be an asset on any team, ESPECIALLY in the clubhouse. His play on the field speaks for itself. If there is anything to be wary about, it would be his injury history.
dodgers are tampering already
I have faith in AF that he will do the right thing
The dodgers and Yankees are perennial big time losers. They can have a team full of Hall of famers and lose. And the dodgers world series win was a joke. A season cut short because of covid. Yankees are the same ass losers.
why don’t you tell us how you feel
I wouldn’t put much stock in this. SS is one of the best positions for a well-run organization (such as LAD) to develop a projectable 2-win glove wizard with upside for the MI (hello, Jeremy Pena, Andres Giminez, et al) given how fielding on average peaks in players’ early 20s, or to find a cheap stopgap on the market while they wait. Still, it’s difficult to think the Dodgers are waiting on Amaya. Valera is a more credible guy, but when do the Dodgers wait on minor leaguers, especially ones who only took a step up after four so-so years on the farm? The hole doesn’t mean they’ll commit to something like 8 years for Correa, though.
Paying someone like Correa something like $250m is buying not a 5-win SS, but a 3-win SS above that 2-win floor. You’re buying the surplus, in sum, and it’s a real pity the Mets proceeded in ignorance of this.
In any case, Turner going on 30 will be much cheaper, and a much more reliable SS wrt durability. His value is also comparatively improved by the lesser need to play a sub in his stead, which Correa will more often require. Even cheaper would be someone like Swanson. If the Dodgers really don’t feel like Valera has any chance to put it all together or feel he’d be better suited to 2B or 3B even if he does, Swanson’s a pretty good fit, and he already has L.A. hair.
“Paying someone like Correa something like $250m is buying not a 5-win SS, but a 3-win SS above that 2-win floor.”
JackStrawb;
B I N G O !
Friedman’s moves are consistent, but misunderstood.
He knew he’d lose Seager in 2022 because he wasn’t going to overpay for an offensive SS. Dodgers could win without Seager. So he brought in Trea Turner along with Max for the stretch run in 2021. Cost him a good young pitcher and a very good young catcher – both of which he has move of. Max crapped out of course, but he got Trea to play SS in 2022 for $21m – far less than the $33m Seager got for 2022; and is due another $290m….which he’ll never remotely be worth.
The media is putting their value system on the situation, figuring that the Dodgers need to spring for hundreds of millions for their SS whether it goes to Trea or someone else.
That team is built around defense and pitching. They can win with one of my favorites – Kevin Newman of the Pirates – playing SS in 2023…and a few years beyond (he’s estimated to get a bit below $3m in arbitration for 2023)….and if not him, someone else that’s affordable.
I don’t believe Andrew Friedman has any intention of throwing big money at SS for 2023. I could be wrong of course, but unlike just about all teams in MLB, he tends to rejuvenate his ML roster with young players most years rather than going stale like the White Sox and Jays are now doing – waiting for some miracle to happen while their veterans salaries are going up as their productivity goes down.
Don’t see Friedman changing his track record now.
Another moneyball analysis. Winning teams are rarely cost-effective. You can easily come up with all sorts of scenarios for making a team less expensive, but the only scenario that really matters is the one that makes the team better. I mean, to the team’s fans anyway.
In any event, you seem to have painted a picture of the Dodgers getting cheaper but not better, if only because you haven’t named who plays SS if they don’t spend on one of the free agents. So does that mean you’d be happy with cheaper but not better?
BlueSkies_LA;
1. Friedman is a Moneyball influenced FO person. He’s always been about tying team salaries to production.
2. I didn’t say they wouldn’t get better. You assume that just like the media.
The Dodgers will make some moves this offseason. We don’t even know what’s possible yet. What we do know is that the Dodgers have a top ranked farm system and Friedman wants to bring some of those players up. He has multiple ways of replacing Trea Turner’s offensive production without having to bring in a SS getting hundreds of millions of dollars. For sure he talks to Judge’s agents, and he has plenty of players to trade to get an offensive player or two. And I don’t think that Trea leaving would be the only Dodger regular position player doing so.
Been meaning to stay off this board regarding off-season possibilities because they always wind up being so wrong.
What JackStrawb wrote is in line with how Friedman and other technically influenced FO heads think and act.
1. What Friedman is or isn’t doesn’t matter to my point.
2. You didn’t say how they would get better. If you want anyone to assume anything different you should be able to answer this question. Offer a discussable theory, at least.
Of course they will make moves this offseason. Who suggested otherwise? We don’t have to know what they will do to know where they’ll have holes, and quite a bit about which ones can be plugged with the players coming up in the organization. SS is a big one. It could possibly be filled with Lux, but we haven’t seen a lot of evidence that he has a future at that position. They have similar problems at every infield position except 1B. The rotation is two starters, maybe three. Only two ways to handle that issue, and I’m sure you know what they are.
The Dodgers are in a bind, one I’ve seen coming for a few years. They are in a place where it’s going to be very difficult to become better or even hold the line without pushing the payroll further north. I have a feeling they might decide to go cheaper and not be so concerned about getting better.
No. Just no.