Since the moment Carlos Correa signed a surprising, short-term and opt-out laden deal with the Twins, it’s appeared all but inevitable that he’d trigger the first opt-out in his contract and return to free agency this winter. A huge finish at the plate likely only made Correa’s decision easier, and while the 28-year-old former All-Star hinted that he will indeed opt out when speaking to the Twins beat yesterday, he also voiced a strong desire to return to the Twins and continue playing under manager Rocco Baldelli (Twitter thread via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com).
“…I talked about marriage in terms of building a long-term relationship [with the team], and then we go from there,” Correa said. “But we all know, you know the game enough to know what my decision is going to be like.”
Correa said early in the season that he and his wife immediately felt at home in the Twin Cities. He doubled down on the comments yesterday, stating his love for the organization and the team, adding that his family’s happiness is something he will “take dearly into consideration” as he charts his course. He added that he plans to meet with the team soon and repeated a desire to “get into serious conversations” with the Twins regarding a longer-term deal than the one to which he’s currently signed. If he made the surprising decision to forgo his opt-out, he’d still be signed for another two years and $70.2MM — with the ability to opt out again next winter.
While Baldelli has become a lightning rod for criticism among Twins fans on the heels of a second straight disappointing season, Correa indicated that the relationship he’s forged with his manager has been a key factor in his happiness this season.
“He’s been an open book with me since day one,” Correa said of Baldelli. “He’s been honest. He’s been trustworthy. He’s been a friend. There’s nothing more you want from a manager than what Rocco is to us here.”
Obviously, it’s in Correa’s best interest to say all the right things and to express interest in a long-term deal. There’s no sense in any pending free agent burning any type of bridge or casting doubt about his willingness to return to his current setting; the greater the number of potential landing spots, the greater the competition in free agency, after all. Still, Correa could also have simply declined to comment on the opt-out or on his relationship with the club, so it’s of at least mild note that he perhaps foreshadowed his decision and expressed ostensibly earnest desire to stay put in Minnesota.
Correa stumbled out of the gates early in the season, hitting just .167/.254/.250 through his first 16 games and 67 plate appearances. From that point forth, he found his stroke at the plate and looked every bit like the star the Twins hoped to be acquiring, batting .307/.380/.496 (152 wRC+) with a 10.3% walk rate and 18.9% strikeout rate through his final 523 plate appearances.
Defensive metrics soured on Correa’s work at shortstop following last year’s Platinum Glove showing, but both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) still pegged him as an above-average shortstop. Statcast did grade him negatively (two runs below average) for the first time since his rookie season. Correa made just eight errors this year (six of the throwing variety).
The end result was a strong all-around campaign: a .291/.366/.467 batting line (140 wRC+), 22 home runs, 24 doubles and anywhere from passable to above-average defense at shortstop. Baseball-Reference pegged Correa’s first and perhaps only Twins season at 5.4 wins above replacement; FanGraphs valued him at 4.4 WAR.
The question for both the Twins and for Correa now becomes one of finding a middle ground. Correa hit the market a year ago fresh off an even stronger season than his 2022 effort and still struggled to find the $330MM+ deal he was rumored to be seeking. Now a year older and coming off a strong but still lesser season, it’s hard to imagine that type of contract materializing — particularly with another excellent set of fellow shortstops on the market. A year ago, Correa was joined by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Baez in free agency. This time around, it’s Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson all serving as competition.
From a payroll vantage point, the Twins can very clearly handle a long-term commitment to Correa. Assuming he opts out and Sonny Gray’s 2023 option is exercised — both of which are virtual locks — Minnesota will have about $53.25MM on the 2023 books. By 2024, the only notable long-term guarantee on the ledger is Byron Buxton’s seven-year contract, and his annual base salary clocks in just north of $15MM. If the team wants to build around the Nos. 1 and 2 picks from the 2012 draft, the resources are certainly there. The Twins carried a payroll of more than $142MM this season.
Whether that’s a risk worth taking will be a question for the front office and for ownership, of course. The Twins have more money coming off the books than all but a handful of MLB clubs this winter, but they also have needs in the rotation, the bullpen and at several spots in the lineup. They also have another former No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, as a potential heir to Correa at shortstop, although Lewis tore his right ACL (while playing the outfield) in just the 12th game of an impressive MLB debut. It’s the second straight season with a season-ending right ACL tear for the now 23-year-old Lewis, and it remains unclear whether that pair of surgeries to repair the same ligament impact the team’s thoughts on him as a potential shortstop. His outlook is but one of many layers to a complex and franchise-altering decision the Twins will face with Correa’s opt-out looming.
He hasn’t lived there in the winter yet. Lol
Why would he ever have too? Do you think most players live year round in three cities they play in?
I live an hour NW of the ballpark. -40 with wind is great. It keeps idiot$ at home.
Rocco is the worst manager in all of time. If he had any ability to coach, the team wouldn’t suck. He doesn’t understand that situational baseball overrides metrics.
You’ve never seen Derek Shelton manage a game if you think Baldelli is the worst.
I still think he had dough on the Jays during that series lol
Ironically Shelton was Twins bench coach when Rocco was hired. He was a finalist for the Twins job then and left for Pittsburgh after Rocco’s first season.
Stan: I completely understand what you’re saying and it a valid argument. But, I think it’s all-too-common in today’s market. I don’t necessarily believe that it is an evaluation tool for how good/bad a manager is because they are simply analytical slaves. Rather, I believe that’s because GMs are selecting managers who will stay within the confines of analytics & not color outside the lines.
Boone grinds in my nerves because he does the same thing. But, during an interview, Cashman said of Boone making a decision inconsistent with analytics, “He can, but he better be right.”
I’m not surmising Baldelli is good. Heck, I’m not even suggesting Baldelli isn’t the worst. I’m merely adding additional context to evaluating managers based on their willingness to make decisions incongruent with analytics.
In addition to situational baseball, I find nearly all new-age managers don’t take into account the human factor, which analytics can’t (if a guy is currently hot, really cold, mentally struggling, etc).
Excellent comment Clipper. I’m lucky to be a Braves fan. AA’s FO analytics team provides good info to Braves players/coaching staff while still allowing Snitker to make decisions. Snit, players, and the coaching staff regularly praise the strong working relationships between all levels of the organization. Plenty of Braves fans still trash Snit over his lineup construction and pen management, but what fanbase doesn’t do the same. That kind of criticism on managerial decisions has been part of baseball since it’s inception. Second guessers gotta second guess, lol. Armchairs are comfy.
@yc first off hope your doing well, and i see judge dragged your yanks into oct kicking and screaming lol. anyhow best of luck to nyy and hopefully pulled there heads out of there a’s and start playing bb. anyhow great post and personally i think gm/pbo’s need to let mangers go off script sometimes. i’m not against analytics but it’s also not the end all be all more of a tool to be used, i.e. when i put up trim i don’t grab the biggest hammer i have to drive in a little nail, i grab a smaller one. to me it feels like analytics is the end all be all for most teams and they forget about the intangibles, i.e. a guy is worn down needs rest or like you said is either hot or cold and i feel mangers should have more say in the game to game than following a “script” and when things go off script (in rl not just sports things go off script often and need to know how to deal). also i think mangers need more control over the game because you can’t tell me a gm/pbo has the time or attention needed to build a team improve the team mid season then go down to the clubhouse and be part of that as well. imho the top brass need to start hiring guys they can trust when said script goes fubar and stop micro managing
Brodie: Good to see you here, my friend! Congratulations on the Cards and good luck tomorrow! I’ll be watching and rooting for your team.
But, yeah, I completely agree. Analytics should be one tool, not the tool. The problem is that analytics make the outcome predictable in a given situation most of the time. It annoys me to no end because it’s like we’ve gone and gotten stupid – so stupid we need the computer data sheet to tell us who to put where, when, and against whom.
I think teams would be much more successful if they would let the manager manage. Plus, you’d start to really see your good managers rise to the top. One of the biggest challenges to baseball today is that the entire game is driven by statistical formulas.
ty ty yc just sucks i’m going to miss most of the game because i don’t get off work until 2:30 cdt and game starts at 1 cdt. anyhow what you just said is the reason i was pissed and still pissed at mo for firing schlidt. i thought he brought a nice blend of analytics and “old school” managing, imo if all you do is surround yourself with yes men you will fail doesn’t matter if it’s sports or business (and all other fields) you need people to push you and think outside the box, also the message that comes from yes men gets stale and you never progress and one day you look and everyone has passed you because of your narcissism
Brodie: That is so true. I agree with everything you wrote, man. A lot of wisdom in your comments bro.
@yc ty tbh i look at bb just like any other industry, and the well ran organization have a structure and allow management to adapt to changes. just like in my field of construction, our script are the blueprints and you don’t do anything but what’s on the print, but there are many times that you have to go off script just to keep the job going, also there is a hierarchy (i’m going to use the general contractor for this example because things are a lil different if your a sub-contractor) you have the fo which comprises of the owner project mangers, “riding bosses” (that more of a residential term), then you have your boots on the ground guys that go in this order. the superintendent or soup, who runs the whole job and oversees kinda like a gm, then you got the foreman’s who are like the mangers and oversees us workers. how all this works is based on trust and results and your ability to overcome snags in the script without losing a beat. imho mlb is no different i just think we’ve gotten away from letting guys in the field run the team when things get sideways.
Juicy Smollet disagrees.
Baldelli has way too quick of a hook with pitchers, other than that ok
So it wasn’t the fact that the Twins had the 2nd most injuries in baseball? spotrac.com/mlb/injured-list/cumulative-team/
Hey…um…the Angels need a short stop.
Yes the Angels should add another 300 million dollar player to their payroll and never compete for the postseason.
I don’t mind big contract players as long as they are worth their pay. Trout has been worth every dollar, hopefully Ohtani will continue his craziness once he’s signed long term, Rendon has sucked. We have had our share of bonehead contracts over the years – Pujols, Hamilton, et al. Hopefully a new owner will spend on players to win games, not to market tickets and TV deals.
Hope the Mets can recover from their choke and advance in the post season.
Yeah but that’s not the definition of organizational continuity…why do you think Ben Cherington was let go even after the Red Sox won it all in 18’…b/c besides the fact that their best player at the time & arguably of all-time along with Ted Williams secretly didn’t like the franchise & wouldn’t extend there…most of their core young guys weren’t extended & John Henry saw the future “debt” that the Red Sox are facing now…arguing about who to resign between either Devers or Boegarts while JD looks like an afterthought…thank god LA & Ned Colletti was desperate for a title b/c if The Sox still had Price on their books they’d be in Hell
What year do you live in?
The Sox fired Cherington in 2015 and the Dodgers fired Colletti in 2014
At least I had an Airhead feel the need to reply…Dave Dombrowski was ousted so thanks for the clarification
Choke? They won 101 games.
Yeah, I’m talking about losing the division at the last minute. But they had a great season. Hopefully they go far in the post season. Your new owner means business.
@prov356 on June 1st the Mets were 35-17 with a 10.5 game lead on the Braves. Since then they played .600 ball going 66-44. On Sept 1st, the Mets were 84-48 with a 3 game lead and outside of a 3 game set with the Braves, had a favorable schedule. In those games against lesser opponents the Mets played .629 ball going 17-10. The Braves beat them 3 straight. That’s Baseball. For the season the Braves Mets series was 10-9. The Mets won the 2nd most games in their Franchise history, going 101-61, Braves their most since 2003. These two teams pushed each other to great heights. The Twins choked, they were tied for 1st at the beginning of Sept and ended up with a losing record 14 games out. Did the Mets choke? I guess if every team that had a lead and lost it is a choker? Maybe a team that was just playing better ball beat them? Can we give the Braves the credit?
WW – Braves did amazingly well. Again, don’t mean to diminish the Mets’ season, as I think I made clear. But the Braves won when they needed to and won the division that seemed to be the Mets’ to lose.
@prov, totally agreed, Braves did what they had to
Trout has been injured as much as he’s been able to play…. Hmmmm you have to be available to be worth that salary
gcg27 – I’m no math expert but no he hasn’t.
Yes the Angels have had their fair share of bonehead moves and signing Correa would be another one.
He’ll turn 29 next year and plays (and will be paid for playing) the most athletic position in the game: SS.
Father Time is not kind to players in general, but loves to move Shortstops to other positions. Metrics are brutal on aging SS.
Why anyone would give a guy like Correa the $330m – $350m he was seeking last year is beyond a head scratcher.
Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez all got paid last off-season. None of those guys are in the playoffs and many would argue that those contracts already look ugly.
But, some sucker will pay Correa and kill their payroll. For the Love of God, it better not be the Angels.
Correa turned 28 just 14 days ago so he will be in his age 28 season in 2023. That means you can reasonably expect a minimum of 4 more great seasons before he begins the inevitable descent every player goes through. His value this season is around $45 million. The question is why wouldn’t anyone want that kind of production and value on their team for at least the next 4 seasons.
AFTER signing Ohtani to a $30 million contract, the Angels still only have $144 million on the books for 2023. With a top 10 revenue stream, they can afford to be near or at the CBT every season. Paying Correa or a to line starting pitcher $30 million would in no way kill their payroll.
Mets: The Angels basically gave up on this season (as indicated by some of their starting position players, like Velasquez, for ex.) and were still on a postseason track the first half.
If they acquire a real SS and some pitching it’s not unreasonable to think they will be very competitive in their division.
They’re hovering around 6th in the AL all categories this year except ‘pen performance and offense, both of which they performed toward the bottom third. Even their SP, which is often a notable criticism of the Angels performed in the top 50% of AL teams. With the expanded WC, that’s very doable with a decent offseason.
prov356;
Yes, but he’d love to stay in his marriage with the Twins if they would simply fork over $300-350m for 10-12 years. If not, well……
Do the Angels have that money to lay out when Shohei Ohtani is going to demand over $40m for multiple years? Will they be content playing Correa, Trout, Ohtani and 23 guys averring under $3m a year?
I’d suggest that Mr. Correa is misjudging his market in 2022-23 as he did in 2021-22.
All valid points as always Samuel. That’s a lot of payroll for many years so scouting and player development become all the more critical in finding and developing talent to surround the big guys.
prov356;
Good point on your part……
I’ve seen teams cut their budget for scouting and player development because they overpaid a free agent. They learn their lesson (some FO guys lost their jobs). The smart FO’s never did it.
P.S. The Angels are already in that mode with Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon. You want a starting SS? Here’s two candidates that play remarkably the same – Dansby Swanson and Kevin Newman. Swanson and Minasian obviously know one another from Atlanta. Swanson started hitting this year. Swanson is not going to get $25m-plus. He might be affordable to the Angels. Newman is similar to Swanson in that he’s a very good, solid fielding SS – and many be better. And what’s gone missing is that he had a nice year hitting this year – .274 / .316 / .372…he’s not a power hitter, but he’ll keep the line moving. Pirates stuck Cruz over him, and next year Liover Peguero may be up. Newman’s salary is reasonable, he’s 29, originally from San Diego, and he’ll fit in with what Minasian is trying to do.
Lol Kevin Newman plays the same as Correa??? A career 79 OPS+ Correa is 129.
Samuel — I don’t see how you can compare Newman with Swanson. Dansby isn’t the best choice of ss out there, but Newman . . .? Please, they’re not in the same strata.
And actually, Dansby had been the best defensive SS this season, at least in terms of FanGraphs
Pete’sView;
I can compare Newman to Swanson because I’ve seen both play SS quite a bit.
To me they’re comparable fielders. Up until this year Swanson didn’t hit much, and Neman hit less. This happens a bit with middle infielders that come up as glovemen and surprisingly start hitting later in their careers.
The Angels need a SS that can play strong D to support their pitchers – maybe start 130 games a year as they have a few other guys that can play some SS as well. They’ll get hitting from other positions. Newman will not demand much in trade, and his salary is affordable – which will allow the Angles to take on the salary of a solid player that can help them at another position either in free agency or trade.
Your claim that Newman “may be better” than Swanson is one of the worst comps I’ve ever seen on this site. How is anyone supposed to believe that you have any ability to evaluate players when you make ridiculous claims like this? You actually used that slash line to form your opinion? Newman’s a classic old style SS. Decent to meh glove, can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag. 2 homers in 288 ab, 16 walks, 48 K. He’s a poster child for weak contact. At his best, he’s a backup on 2nd Division clubs. More likely a non tender candidate on most teams. Destined to exist in DFA limbo most of his career. Newman can’t carry Swanson’s jock.
I make this same comparison as Samuel did ALL the time, except it’s between Akil Baddoo and Mookie Betts.
I’ve watched both play a lot, just like Samuel has with Kevin Newman and Correa.
Akil and Mookie play to about the same comps, meaning both are outfielders that are vertically challenged somewhat and wear a fielding glove on one hand. Same type player.
The only tangible thing separating Akil and Mookie is that enormous salary gulf.
Why pay out billions when you can hire a minimum-salary outfielder leading to essentially the exact same outcome, right Samuel?
Nailed it.
@Samuel
Agreed. This is how Correa wound up in Minnesota to start with (Trevor Story in Boston too), too many big name players available at the same position and not enough big spenders to sign them all. It may benefit Correa to take the guaranteed $35 million from the Twins and see where things stand after ’23 when there will be no big name SS’s available
Angels won’t do anything big this offseason- Arte is trying to sell the team. Another huge contract doesn’t make the franchise value go up.
Yeah, that’s one of the theories out there. I think they should treat the winter with the intention of building a winning team because Moreno has flip flopped on other deals in the past so you never know what he’ll do…and he was very careful to use the words “exploring a sale”. The team isn’t sold until it’s sold.
He’s old and his kids don’t want to take over… he’s selling
I’m praying it happens.
Another huge contract won’t make the franchise value go down either.
Prov: You guys are in a really good position this offseason with SS. Even if the Angels don’t want to outbid themselves for Correa, there’s still XB, Turner, and Dansby, who will likely be cheaper in that progression.
Even a Swanson acquisition would be a huge boon on both sides of the ball for the team, imo.
Hey Clipper. Any of those guys would be an improvement with Rengifo as a utility guy. His bat came alive in the second half. He needs some work on his defense but I like how he came along this season.
@prov and yc, the cards also might be in on swason, trea, possibly corea, from what i hear on the local radio cards want a ss so they can move edman back to second, and with the new shift rules i can see the cards going after trea or swason to add to that stacked d maybe corea but if he takes another 1/2 year deal i see him just staying in min. honestly i wouldn’t be surprised if the twins and corea don’t hammer out a long term contract. yes he can be saying all the right things but they seem to be a march for each other. also prov imo the problem with the angels is you have no depth early on you were playing good ball then your main guys started getting hurt and had no one to fill in or just give guys a rest and can fill the role for a game or 2.
Turner is going into his age 30 season and was reportedly asking for 10/365.
Wow, I missed that. I love Trea Turner, he’s one of my favorite players to watch on any team other than the Yankees, but 10/$365 is absurd, imho.
My assessment from seeing most of the Twins games this season?
Carlos did very little offensively until September, after the team had already gone South.Nearly 1/3 of his 64 RBI for the season came too late to help.
His defense, while still good, was not quite up to past seasons.
$35 million would be better spent elsewhere. Especially if you’re talking 8-10 years for a player with a history of injury who at 28 has already slowed down in the field and on the bases.
I think the salary dump trade that made this signing possible-getting Donaldson out of the clubhouse- did the team as much good as the Correa signing.
Serious Q, what IS wrong w/ Donaldson. Liked him as late bloomer in Oak…but all I hear is rumblings that he’s not a good clubhouse presence?
Just curious as to what he has done….? thnx
Donaldson is very cocky; so probably something related to that
Makes me wonder how a crap guy in the room gets past the first interview.
Donaldson was first out of the dugout for face time before Judge got out of the batter’s box.
As a born bred Yankees Fan…I don’t hate him but I definitely am not big on him from a “leadership standpoint”…he plays with a chip on his shoulder & supposedly he had a rough upbringing that gave him the success he’s had today kind of cliché story…It’s ironic he came out of the Cub system for the pissant he’s considered…but he’s still got pop in his bat & has a flare for the “on the edge” type of play…I hated early in the season how he would force over throws from 3rd to 1st or trying to hard to make a play trying to win over the fanbase like we didn’t know who or what we were getting…it’s simple…he’s like a more zen Patrick Beverly…you love him as your teammate ..hate going against him
As a Yankee fan I’d be happier with him if he hit better. He’s had a down year and it’s hurt some. However, I have felt this team needs a guy with a chip on his shoulder. For too long this team has seemed too nice. When they’re winning everyone is happy but when they lose they all stand around with a dazed look on their faces. Teams need a player(s) who smashes a buffet table once and a while. All of the Boone-led team meetings are not cutting it.
“You know i used to hate Parkman when he was with the A’s. It’s amazing how a new uniform can change your attitude about a guy (he’s still a d***)”
I don’t think, at this point, anyone expects Correa to get $35MM annually over 8-10 years. He didn’t get it last offseason, when he was a year younger and coming off a better season.
It could still $30MM+ annually over 8+ years, but he only ever got the $35.1MM AAV because he made the concession and took the short-term deal/opt-outs.
As for not hitting until September, that’s not really true. He hit .290/.370/.462 in nearly 400 PA from late April to the end of August. The criticism of him not performing to expectations in leverage spots is plenty fair, but on the whole, his batting line was strong for most of the season (with, as you rightly pointed out, a particularly strong finish).
Steve:, what’s your way-too-early estimate of what Correa’s going to get this offseason in years/money? I know you wrote that it could be $30 for 8+, but what’s your current valuation of his FA?
And, do you have a front-runner for his services?
Thanks.
I could see a front loaded 6/180 with opt outs for Correa.
But In the end it only takes 1. Seager got 330 and he’s no better than Correa.
The problem is that there no one to spend 35 million on. Who else are the twins going to get that’s worth the gamble of th effort to upgrade ?
I think Carlos is over rated
He is…one of the most strikeout prone hitting SS’s considered among the best in the MLB of the common age…& with the type of contract he has…it’s a joke
Correa struck out 20.5% this season and 19.2% over the last two seasons. That is exactly MLB average for 2022 and below the league average of 20.4% over the past two seasons. Average does not equal bad.
Average minus. Interesting, though, that he was anchored at No. 2 in the batting order while the rest of the lineup changed daily.
Kirk Cousins makes the same kind of money and has similar impact plus fans think he’s a drip.
Pretty much…they’ll use the “not the on the field intangibles” to cop a plea & defend his mediocrity…but most of that mediocrity has nothing to do with the fact that he’s a standard throwing Pocket throwing QB, who’s Jekyll & Hyde inconsistencies don’t rely on whether he can get the Vikings to the playoffs or not…his QB play tells you everything you need to know…his reads, throws over the top, back shoulder fades, missed or behind receiver throws…Correa is the equivalent of that just his offense relies with his glove…but nonetheless did bat for his best hitting season in his career this year
So is your spelling. “Overrated” is a single combined word.
Maybe he meant that Correa has been rated a lot…
Not sure why Rocco is a lightning rod in Minnesota. He uses analytics to help determine pitching moves (with a team that believes in playing the odds, how could he not use them to their fullest). Had almost an equal number of games played between their season starting outfield five and their injury replacements. Had a bargain bin starting rotation (why would you let Bundy and Archer go past 4 innings) and a relief core that proved incapable of getting outs except for a couple of exceptions. The dilemma was whether to take out bad starters and replace them with bad relievers. So happy that he will have a chance to manager in 2023 with a better pool of available players.
I’d want Rocco managing the Pirates any day over Shelton.
never understood why he picked the twins
Because he didn’t pick the Astros when the offered him five years, and the Twins were the only ones offering him that much money with annual opt-outs. It was the best of both worlds coupled with the most amount of money on the table for him.
He took he chances with the Twins I can see why he wants to opt out.
He may return to the Twins. He may not return to the Twins. The bottom line is Cara Delevingne is hotter than Margot Robbie plus she’s got that crazy in her that real men gravitate to.
The most interesting thing you’ve said in months….
@don more like the only interesting thing he said ever
Worth more than $35 million per? Negative!
Worth $45-50 million. But who is counting?
I see Elias and the O’s making another run at Correa this off season again , for Carlos the O’s are much more appealing than they were last offseason.
That’s a really interesting postulation. I hadn’t really considered the O’s because of Henderson, but I see he’s played a lot of 3B this year. Although Mateo has been really, really good defensively, the O’s seem to be primed to move up in the standings. If they believe they’re in the position to make a postseason run, I could certainly see it.
Not happening. Elias and company pick players and player prospects based on analytics. Correa is on the decline.
In what world is he in a decline? He had a higher OPS+ this season than he did in 2021.
@jjd002: thanks for the follow up/feedback. Numbers aside and all those acronyms that define the numbers, the Astros moved on. He’s injury prone. They went younger. The Astros are in the playoffs, the Twins are not. Again, Elias will not pursue him.
I mean Elias did draft him #1 so I would imagine he at least likes Correa and might give it a thought.
Rocker49: I hear ya. That said, Elias is all about the analytics, he doesn’t come across as a GM that makes decisions based on emotions/feelings for others. He had no problem parting ways with Mancini; the face, now former face, of the franchise plus cancer survivor.
His OPS+ is up 9%. His wRC+ is up 7%. His BA is up 12 points. His hard hit ball% was up 2 percent. Defensive metrics are useless when using only one season of data so no reason to even discuss those. So exactly what area of his game is on the decline?
What does the Astros having one of the most stacked teams in baseball have to do with the O’s making a run at Correa? The Twins also had more than double the player days in the IL that the Astros had and Correa played in 84% of the team’s games.
Here are some analytics for you. Over the past 3 seasons Correa is 9th in games played by SS. He is 2nd in WAR. He is #1 in DRS. 8th in OAA. He is 3rd in OPS+ and 5th in wRC+. ONLY Turner is better among potential FA shortstops and Turner is older and asking for more money.
I doubt he stays with the Twins. The lockout messed up his market and that isn’t going to happen this year. He may not get $350M that he wants, but he he will get far more that the notoriously cheap Twins will be willing to pay.
“But we all know, you know the game enough to know what my decision is going to be like.”
——
Yes. You’re going to leave for the most money.
He’s a good player…when on the field. Only once in eight years has he played in over 150 games and only three times has he gone over 500 plate appearances. He also performs very well when a contract is on the agenda for the off-season. His injuries at a young age concern me for anything long term and pricy. In addition, the Twins are investing their core dollars on players with a history of injury. If he were to opt out, I’d consider investing those dollars elsewhere.
He is 9th in games played over the past 3 years for SS. WAR is a cumulative stat, meaning the more games you play the higher possible WAR, and he ranks 2nd over that period.
He knew the Twins didn’t shop at Dior when he signed last year. He still signed because nobody else wanted what he was offering. Take the 1 for $35,100,000 or don’t. As a Twins fan I’d prefer he doesn’t
I will not deny that Carlos Correa is really good when he’s healthy. I do not like the guy, but I am not ignorant to his level of play and his consistency. Even when he plays only 84% of a given season, he’s good. I don’t know if he’s worth $35M or $40M or whatever a year, but he actually averages 126 games a year overall past his rookie season- was he on the opening day roster as a starter? And BTW- I’m being very generous and assuming 150 games over a full season from the 60 game 2020 season where he appeared in 58 games.
I think the likelihood is that he will average 137 games or so per season between injuries and scheduled rest days. If he’d be worth 7.2 WAR per 162 games played, he will actually be worth around 5.75 WAR per season- assuming he maintains a production level and IL list time going forward that is comparable to his 2022 season.
The value of 1 WAR for position players in the 2022 free agency market was $5,380,791.93 per WAR.
So, 5.75 x $5,380,791.93 = $30.94M per season. And actually that’s giving Correa some extra credit, since he finished 2022 with a 5.4 WAR. If he’d played all season his pace gives him a 6.4 WAR over 162 games. That’d be more like $29M per season for his actual games played and $34.438M per season for his 162 game pace. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and say he ended the season with a 5.45 WAR. That’d be $29.325M per season. Let’s go even further and add a little to the value per 1 WAR thanks to standard contract inflation by way of guys trying to break the record of previously comparable valued deals and say that the 2023 Free Agency contracts will value 1 WAR at $5,785,000 per WAR- a 7.5% or so increase for comparable free agents. That’d be a $31.59M annual value. Or if he played to a 6.4 WAR over 162 games, that’d be a $37.024M a year value.
Seems to me they should split all those differences and value him at $5,582,896 per WAR and assume he will produce an average of 6.333 WAR going forward in a best case scenario. That gives him an average annual value of $35,358,342. He’s already making $35,100,000, which is 99.27% of his total possible value as a player.
So I think he should just extend his current contract with the Twins and make it a guaranteed deal. I think he will have a typical career arc to most guys and drop off at around 33-34 from his peak. That’d be a 6 year deal. So, I think Correa should get 6 years/$212.01M and if he really truly wants to play until he’s 36 or whatever, give him 10 years/$314.01M (6 years/$212.01M, 2 years/$55M, 2 years/$45M) That still gives him an equivalent free agency period deal of 11 years/$347,110,000, which is in the upper echelon of all time contract values and lengths.
I don’t know. I don’t think the Twins will extend the contract but if they do so it will be for a lower AAV. Like 5/150.
The value of 1 WAR for FA was just under $9 million for the 2022 season. It hasn’t been under $8 million for a decade.
I know people will say they have too much money on the books. I don’t think the new ownership group cares. Seattle could move JP to 2nd and Correa could slide in at SS.
JP had a down year and you could tell he was not happy. His body language was horrible. I think the owners want to run down the Astros and adding a player like this is a way to do it. We will also need to sign Haniger to a long term contract. I don’t see a huge need after that but another bat or 2 to have a bit more pop or a guy like Edgar that got you that hit and many times was a double.
They need to make a trade and get rid of Twinkie. There was a reason he played so little the last couple months. I know some of you guys think he is great but his bat didn’t show it and his D was awful. His bat I can understand new league new team etc but his D should have been better. I have no idea what his D metrics show but the eye test says he was bad.
Halos and As have a long ways to go. I would be happy to go into next season with this same group. I am not sure we would catch the Astros but it would be closer than this year. With a couple players that have power or avg bats we could over take them.
It’s interesting that the FO hasn’t shown their hand in this situation. Probably for the best. I know they aren’t gonna want to give him the $$$$ or years he wants, so they’ll have to navigate that. If i was the GM I’d basically say, “We have a contract with you. Don’t opt out if you want to stay.”
If Carlos really wants the money he covets, he could probably help himself out and talk less.