Big Hype Prospects continues with a look at the early results from the Arizona Fall League. This is, historically, a hitter-centric league so it will come as no surprise that the best early performers are mostly position players.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 31 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, .455/.581/.636
Veen has posted video-game numbers, especially on the basepaths. During the regular season, he stole 55 bases in 64 attempts (541 plate appearances). He’s upped the ante in Arizona, swiping a league-leading seven bags in eight attempts. Veen’s biggest statistical weakness is an elevated swinging strike rate. To close out the season, he posted a 15 percent swinging strike rate at Double-A while batting .177/.262/.234 in 141 plate appearances. His early rebound at the fall league is an encouraging sign.
Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 6 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 0.00 ERA
One of only a few pitchers with serious clout in the AFL, Sheehan has held opponents scoreless through two appearances. He’s presently on the cusp of Top 100 prospect status for many evaluators. The Dodgers consistent ability to get the most out of their pitching prospects certainly contributes an added hint of optimism.
Command is the limiting factor for his development, and it happens to be the only thing he’s struggled with thus far in Arizona. Sheehan’s repertoire is a tad unusual. While a fastball-curve-changeup trio sounds vanilla, he’s a right-hander whose best pitch is a changeup. His fastball and curve tunnel well and can have upwards of 20-mph of separation. Scouting reports tend to downplay his curve when viewed on its own, but the pitch seems to play up within his repertoire.
Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 40 PA, 3 HR, .368/.400/.711
The second-overall pick of the weird 2020 draft, Kjerstad missed all of 2021 due to heart inflammation. He finally made his minor league debut this season. He steamrolled Low-A pitchers in 98 plate appearances then struggled versus High-A opponents. Since he’s missed so much time, his performance in the AFL will have more influence on how evaluators view him than most other participants. Presently, he’s tied for the league lead with three home runs. Notably, he’s also struck out 10 times which is right on par with his strikeout rate in High-A.
Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 21 PA, 3 HR, .263/.333/.842
The co-leader in home runs is Mervis. He’s accomplished the feat in 19 fewer plate appearances than Kjerstad. Mervis spent the regular season climbing from High- to Triple-A. Along the way, he hit 36 home runs in 578 plate appearances. His plate discipline and contact rates improved at every level, culminating in a 10.4 percent walk rate, 14.6 percent strikeout rate, and 8.7 percent swinging strike rate in Triple-A. He’s a classic pulled contact, fly ball masher built for the height of the juiced ball era. He should arrive in Chicago early next season. He’ll enjoy Wrigley Field when the winds are blowing out.
Matt McLain, 23, SS, CIN (AA)
AFL: 30 PA, 2 SB, .200/.467/.250
A talented middle infielder now overshadowed by Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte, McLain could make a case for a quick promotion to the Majors with a strong showing this fall. To date, he’s shown epic patience, working a league-leading 10 walks in just 30 plate appearances. He’ll need to show a stronger knack for making quality contact, whether in play or over the fence. His 2022 campaign at Double-A was characterized by plenty of discipline (15.5 percent walk rate), decent power (.221 ISO), and a poor .232 batting average. While batting average isn’t tightly related to production, most quality prospects tend to post high averages in the minors.
Five More
Joey Wentz, DET (24): It’s uncommon but not entirely unheard of for players with Major League experience to play in the AFL. Wentz pitched 32.2 effective innings with the Tigers, including a 3.03 ERA (4.56 xFIP). He missed the early portion of the season, so he’ll make a few extra starts to further build his workload. A former 40th-overall pick, Wentz threw four perfect innings in his first AFL appearance.
Luisangel Acuna, TEX (20): Acuna lacks the same raw tools as his talented older brother, but his development has progressed encouragingly nonetheless. He reached Double-A as a 20-year-old. He has picked up where he left off in the AFL, batting .300/.323/.633 with a pair of home runs in 31 plate appearances. Don’t worry about the low walk rate, his discipline might be his carrying trait.
Nick Yorke, BOS (20): After a poor regular season campaign, Yorke is looking to put his name back on the map with a hot finish. Thus far, he’s hitting .300/.410/.400 in 39 plate appearances. He’s yet to homer or steal a base. He has, however, worked six walks compared to six strikeouts. In High-A, his strikeout rate was three times higher than his walk rate.
Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Gelof is well-regarded by Athletics personnel, though his on-field results weren’t ideal. He finished the year on a power-binge in Triple-A, blasting five home runs in 38 plate appearances. He blasted two home runs on Thursday, his first of the AFL season. Overall, he’s batting .259/.355/.481.
Jordan Lawlar, ARI (20): Although he sputtered statistically to end the season in Double-A, scouting reports continually put Lawlar in the discussion for the number one prospect. In 32 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.500/.667 with two home runs and three steals in four attempts. 2023 is his age 20 season, and there’s an outside chance he’ll debut. A hot AFL would help those odds.
Veen is going to be a monster.
Like a real monster?
Probably more like Fruit Brute or Count Chocula.
I had literally never heard of Fruit Brute before your comment. Cereal remains king
It’s going to be interesting to see if the Cubs play the game of holding Mervis back to gain an extra year of control. he fills a giant need for them right away. LH power hitter.
Amen!
At this point if he has a solid Spring Training nothing should hold this kid back from being on the Big League Roster Opening Day!
That’s pretty cool if he’s gonna skip AAA.
What skip? He played at Iowa at the end of the season for like 2 months.
He played 57 games at AAA this season. That said, my guess is the Cubs sign a shortstop, move Hoerner to 3B, move Wisdom to 1B, and say they want to go with veteran experience to start the season. Mid-May, the tune changes and they promote Mervis (and either bench or DH Wisdom).
Yeah I don’t know why his AAA stats weren’t popping up for me on baseball reference. Veen right?
Why would they want to go with veterans in a clear rebuild mode?
Julio Rodriguez skipped AAA. Logan Gilbert pitched 1 game George Kirby likewise 1 game.
I started to look more and found a list for 2020 and 61 players debuted that year with no AAA experience. Granted not all are still in the bigs or maybe BB for that matter. There are some fairly big names there.
Seattle with this crop of players to move up that was the plan. Play in AA then straight to Seattle. In fact they moved guys around so they could all be Travelors together. That is why Cal is really comfortable catching Gilbert and Kirby since he has caught them so many times. Hancock is another that will skip AAA. He could move up to fill in or stay down depending on how he is doing and what needs Seattle has.
They might stick him in the BP to get him accustomed to big league batters or leave him in Arkansas to wait and see if someone gets injured.
The SP spots will be at a premium the next 5 years. The only one I see vacant is Marco’s. Not sure if they keep him until contract is up or trade him when Hancock is ready. That pitching spot will be a valuable commodity. I know they feel some loyalty to him and the fans being a hometown guy and all. He could be a great piece to use in a multi player trade. Him and Winker. We would probably have to take a bad contract to add Winkie in.
Prerty darn cool. Thanks for the info Compassrose!
The only thing that could hold him back is 40 man roster manipulation…
The cubs have a lot of guys that will need protected from the rule v draft and only so many slots… Mervis however is not one of those names. The Cubs may have to keep Mervis back until they can manipulate the roster with 60 day IL moves, trades and DFAs.
He needs to work on his defense so he’ll start at AAA and figure things out in a couple of weeks
He’s already 24., turns 25 in April. Why hold him back – to keep him through age 32 instead of 31?
Because the Cubs may have to hold him back so they don’t lose any prospects in the rule five. Mervis doesn’t need to be added but a lot of guys do.
That explains holding him back until December.
They’ll move Hoerner to 2b and sign Turner for SS and Correa for SS.
chrismilwaukee:
Did you fall into the beer vat at work?
If Lawlar maintains his hot start, proving he can make adjustments to upper level pitching, he might get a look on the Dbacks roster late in this upcoming season. What that probably means is that Nick Ahmed and Geraldo Perdomo will hold down the SS position next year, then turn it over to Lawlar in 2024.
I’m not even sure we’d have to wait until late. He might get a call as soon as they get the extra year of club control. It’s hard to assess the DBacks. They moved so carefully with Carroll but have called upon others fairly fast. And they did seem to change strategy with Carroll by promoting him this season.
The legend of Mash Mervis continues!!
Heck of a year, went from unknown to potentially the long term starting 1B for the Cubs starting next season.
I don’t think the my can get away with that again: If he continues this into spring training then you have no excuse to send him down. I get why they did not give him a taste this year which. Is due to needing to protect certain. Players from the Rule 5 and every spot on the 40 man is going to be precious.
The Cubs won’t need to hold anyone down to save a 40 man spot. There’s a ton of dead weight on the 40 man that can go to save any prospects. I did a list about a month ago and came up with 15 guys who can go off the 40. Some of them are already gone though like Frank the Tank and Hermisillo so I haven’t done it lately.
Just came up with this off the top of my head:
Brault
Espinoza
Leiter Jr
Marquez
Miley
Mills
Vizcaino
Wieck
Bote
McKinstry
Quiroz
Crook
Ortega
Heyward
Reyes
Some of these guys can be cut and invited to Spring Training if you want. If somebody wants to offer them a Major League deal I say enjoy!
Mervis will be the Cubs 1bman unless he has a horrendous ST. The Cubs need more pitching more than a SS and Hoerner is just fine. Wisdom just needs to cut down on his strikouts by about 40 balls in play and stay healthy and play a good 3b which he does. McKinstry brings a needed LH bat to 2b and trade Madrigal. Morel can play anywhere in a back up roll. Crow-Armstrong in Cf brings great defense and then the cubs can spend on pitching and more pitching. Sadly, the Franimal did not bring the HRs the Cubs hoped for. His personality fit in well with the young Cubs. A ST invite will sort it all out and the Cubs have a couple of OF also almost ready with HR pop. Spring Training will be fun in ’23.
@JimT: not a Cubs fans; thanks for the intel.
If more pitching is the need, could a guy like Mervis be a part of a prospect package to get it?
No. And Hoyer already said he’s not spending on a TOR arm so that leaves the kid starters and Bullpen. Madrigal and Happ are the bait.
I like the cubs pitching. He did a fantastic job this year. They need a TOR guy to complete but the middle & back look strong. Bullpen showed some promise but they need another high leverage arm or 2.
Jed and Co can say whatever they want during his end-of-year presser. He could see Davis and Mervis both destroy AFL pitching and think they are a bat or 2 and an arm or two away.
I’m guessing they sign one of Correa/Turner.
Then look at arms like Rodon, Bassitt, Thor, or Senga.
Cubs could potentially make a trade for someone with the depth they now have in the minors along with guys like Nico or Morel at the ML level. (Maybe a Ohtani if he agrees to a longer term deal.
Jed and Co. have some money to spend and prospects to deal during this offseason. The NorthSide could be an interesting place next season.
Did not know a player with major league cred could play in the AFL. Cool. Joey W. looks legit. He was part of the trade that sent Shane Greene to Atlanta. To the FO’s credit, it looks like the Tigers definitely got the better end of that deal!