The Red Sox announced Thursday that righty Nathan Eovaldi has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. Right-hander Connor Seabold has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester in his place. Additionally, it now appears unlikely that Trevor Story will return to the Sox in 2022. Story, currently shelved with a heel injury, had been hoping to return for the final series of the season but has fallen ill (on top of that injury) and is now “very unlikely” to get back to the active roster in 2022, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets.
Eovaldi’s return is an important one not necessarily for the Red Sox, who’ve long since been eliminated from postseason contention, but for the pitcher himself. The 32-year-old Eovaldi is wrapping up the final season of a four-year, $68MM contract and is slated to become a free agent at season’s end. He’s been out more than a month due to a shoulder injury, so returning today gives him the opportunity to demonstrate his health over two more starts before the end of the year. That’ll also give the Sox a bit more information as they weigh a potential qualifying offer for Eovaldi.
It’s been something of an up-and-down year for Eovaldi, who was terrific through mid-June before landing on the injured list due to a back injury. That issue also cost Eovaldi a month, and he briefly experienced a velocity dip and poor results upon his activation. He got back on track for three starts, beginning Aug. 1, but then hit the shelf with this most recent shoulder ailment.
Even with the slight dip in performance in July, Eovaldi’s overall numbers are sound. He’s logged a 4.15 ERA with a 22.7% strikeout rate and an outstanding 4.3% walk rate in 99 2/3 innings this season — a continuation of the strong results he enjoyed with Boston from 2020-21. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Eovaldi carries a collective 3.87 ERA in 330 1/3 frames. He’s fanned nearly one quarter of his opponents in that time and his 4.3% walk rate trails only Clayton Kershaw for the MLB lead in that span (min. 200 innings pitched).
A healthy Eovaldi is an easy call to receive a qualifying offer, so it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on his performance over the next two outings. Cotillo noted that he’ll be capped around 65 pitches today, so it’s unlikely he’ll go deep into the game, but there will still be plenty to be gleaned from even a four- or five-inning outing. It also stands to reason that Eovaldi could push a bit further in what would be his final start of the season next week.
As for Story, this latest injury and illness will apparently close the book on what was a discouraging first season in Boston. Signed over the winter to a six-year, $140MM contract, Story stumbled out of the gates, and while he had a pair of torrid hot streaks (from mid-May into early June and from August into September), those were surrounded by prolonged cold spells at the plate. In the end, his 2022 campaign will end with a .238/.304/.434 slash, 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 396 plate appearances.
Defensively Story posted impressive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (six) and Outs Above Average (ten) despite appearing in only 813 innings on the field. The move to second base suited him quite well, but his future position remains to be determined. Xander Bogaerts will opt out of his contract at season’s end and reject a qualifying offer, but the Sox will surely have interest in re-signing him. If Bogaerts heads elsewhere, Story is certainly capable of sliding back over to shortstop — a position at which he starred in Colorado for the first six seasons of his career. Alternatively, the Sox could seek shortstop alternatives and keep Story at second base, where he’s played Gold Glove-caliber defense in 2022.
Story is still owed $120MM over the next five years, although his contract allows him to opt out after the 2025 season. The team can negate that opt-out by instead preemptively exercising a $25MM club option on the 2028 season for Story, which would push his total contract to seven years and $160MM.
Eovaldi has been doing really decent this year glad he’s back.
I don’t think he’s been good or bad. He’s alright but 4.2 innings doesn’t cut it. The only reason he’s a big name pitcher is because of 2018
$16M is a lot but it wasn’t big game pitcher money then nor now. It turned out to be reasonable for both sides.
I consider Eovaldi “big game pitcher” when they put him in the #1 spot, regardless of his talent level. $16 million isn’t an overpay but it’s not cheap for the amount of injuries and production. We are not backpaying him for 2018.
pwndroia – Are we still pretending Eovaldi’s 2021 season never happened?
You know, the season in which as the ace of the staff he finished 8th in the league in ERA, 5th in WAR for pitchers, 2nd in K/BB%, 7th in WHIP, 4th in adjusted ERA+, 4th in Innings Pitched, 8th in K/9, led the league in fewest BB/9, led the league in FIP, finished 4th in Cy Young voting, was an All-Star, and even got MVP votes.
And he accomplished all that for a team that played 57 regular season games against teams that won between 91-100 games each.
I can understand not wanting him because of injury concerns, but to say he hasn’t been very good when healthy is just plain wrong.
You are right, he was fantastic last year but I look at the bigger picture. He’s an above average pitcher overall with an injury history. Love having him but I wouldn’t invest a multi-year contract moving forward unless it is cheap.
He been in the middle fair fair.
If he throws 8-10 innings before the season ends, I just don’t see how that negates all of his previous IL time. Teams are still going to be cautious. He has a history.
If you trade him for a player to be named later, then what does the team really have to lose? He’s got postseason experience.
So Nathan Eovaldi will obviously reject the qualifying offer (that the Red Sox will obviously give him.) He’s looking for another 3-year deal before he shuts it down.
Big question is, who will Gamble and give Big Nate that 3-year guaranteed deal?
If the Sox submit a qualifying offer Nate will accept it.
runningred;
Which is why I doubt they’ll do that.
Yeah, I doubt Eovaldi gets a QO.
Wow so I’m alone with that thinking. I still think he gets it.. and turns it down looking for 3 years. But I guess I’m wrong. It’s happened before lol.
I think he gets it and takes it with the idea being they then try to work out an extension if he remains on the field in the first half of next season. If he’s healthy, the Sox could alternatively trade him at the deadline so at the end of 23, he’s a year older but won’t have the qualifying offer to bring down his offers.
Samuel and all in are correct. He will accept a QO, because no GM is giving him even 3 years at $16,000,000 per year. Eovaldi is hurt way too often, and considering Eovaldi will be 33 next year, he is not to be trusted to start 25 games per season over the next three years. The $48,000,000 over three years can be spent on younger more reliable pitchers or better used elsewhere.
Cora has already said Whitlock will be a starter next year.
Sale, Bello, Whitlock, Pivetta, and a free agent (possibly Wacha on QO) will be the top 5. Hill may be re-signed as a swing man / depth starter / lefty in the bullpen since the Red Sox have none currently for 2023. Beyond that Mata, Ward, Crawford, and Winckowski are starter depth for the Red Sox.
Sam – Unless he suffers a serious injury in his final start, I guarantee they will offer him a QO.
He was far too good in 2020-2021 for other teams to pass on giving him a multi-year contract.
Gary – You’re not alone, I completely agree with you. If the medicals look good, he will reject a QO and sign a multi-year contract with some team.
too good? He has pitched one healthy season where he was above average over the last 4 years. The 3 others he was hurt, mediocre or downright awful. You keep ignoring that along with the rest of his career where he was all of those things.
Lol you really have to ask? This has Ca$h Man written all over it
No thanks….already been burned by old Nate….Cash will have no interest in revisiting with a starter whose over and under # of starts will probably be in th facility of 12-15 most likely……..and want big money to sign also!
rocky – Cashman has a history of signing pitchers who have missed significant time due to injury. To get a quality pitcher with Nate’s makeup and proven AL East and postseason success, he will at least consider signing him. It’s a good roll of the dice, just like the teams who signed Rodon and Verlander and a bunch of others.
Don’t forget Cashman is the one who acquired Taillon, Paxton, etc.
In total objectivity, Eovaldi’s situation seems up in the air-ish. If he’s eligible for the qualifying offer, I think that’d be the best case scenario- that or an equivalent-ish value one year deal- so like 1 year/$18.5M or so.
Now, since I am a Yankees fan, I hope the Red Sox re-sign Eovaldi to a 5 year/$185M extension and get hog tied by that deal- but that’s just the Yankees fan in me.
I think Eovaldi has been hurt too much to be worth $18M per year. He might be worth $8-10M per year and I wouldn’t sign him for more than two years.
He’s not getting anywhere close to $19M next year and it would be foolish for the RS to offer him a Q.O.
It’s just one year and Boston needs pitchers to get competitive. If healthy, how many better options will there be?
Dewey: You and Gary may be right. Bloom may offer the QO to overpay for a one year contract like he did with K. Hernandez. I just don’t think he is actually worth the $18-20M a QO is worth. I think he will take the QO if offered.
Hernandez is not a good comparison. There is a shortage of even average 2B, and CF. Bloom has choices when it comes to pitching.
So, why did K. Hernandez settle for a one year contract if he is so valuable? Is he hoping to have a big year next year and parlay that into a big multi-year deal? Please help me understand your point.
stymee – What are Bloom’s choices? Signing Verlander, Rodon, deGrom, Kershaw?
Anybody who thinks Bloom will go over $30M/per for one of the few good free agent starting pitchers this winter are dreaming.
Bloom has made it very clear, he doesn’t engage in bidding wars. He waits for whatever is left, like hitting a buffet table after everyone else has already eaten.
dewey – I totally agree with you. If they had no interest in offering the QO they would have dumped Eovaldi for below market value at the trade deadline.
Well said, Bloom is a guy grabbing the leftover food while the help is taking it away. LOL
I have strong doubts that the Red Sox want Mr. Eovaldi back unless it’s at a short-term, low-base, incentive-filled contract.
Eovaldi’s situation seems up in the air-ish.
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This is why, if I need an opinion on the RS, I’d rather ask a Yankee fan than a RS fan.
Right now, I consider Eovaldi a straight coinflip. He’s only 32, and at times, looks like a real good SP. But injuries have made him more inconsistent. My guess is that someone is willing to give him something like $39M/3. If his agent agrees, then he is gone.
And, while no one cares about draft penalties, the fact that they are over the cap, and take a draft hit, the difference between a 2nd and whatever (4th?) we get now, might make a difference in whether we offer him a QO.
JoeBrady;
As a non-Red Sox fan I don’t think it’s up in the air……
The Sox have spent a lot of time working with him. Only twice has he given them over 100 innings in a year. He might be their ace pitcher, but he’s not really an ace pitcher – general overview is that he’s given them 99 innings so far this year with a 4.15 ERA.
He seems like a candidate to go to a team that has a recent history of reworking veteran pitchers (something at this time the Sox do not have). The usual suspects come to mind – Astros, Dodgers, Giants; maybe Phillies, Cardinals, and (horror of horror) Yankees; longshots are the small market Brewers, Rays, Guardians, Orioles – all that won’t offer much of a salary. The Cubs and Angels have been upgrading their pitching development area, shown some progress and might be long-shots.
The Sox are looking at where they want to be a few years from now. They’ve been working with him for 4-1/2 years. At age 32 he is what he is with the Sox, and his health is questionable. It makes little sense to offer him $20m or more a year. It makes more sense for them to look elsewhere for pitching, and for Mr. Eovaldi to go to another organization in an attempt to rework his approach and perhaps become a front-line pitcher….and if not that, a workable starter in the way the Rays have used Corey Kluber this year (he’s being paid $8m).
I wouldn’t argue that much either way, but you know the old baseball saying, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal.
Joe – Clearly $10M for one year of Paxton NOT pitching was a bad one-year deal.
Is 2022 Trevor Story and preview of Xander in 1-2 years only with a larger/longer contract?
I think Bogarts is better. I get the impression RS nation will regret the Story signing and letting Bogarts walk. I do think he will walk since too may of the players are questioning the team’s direction under this current iteration of management.
Darth: My point is: How long before Xander’s durability starts failing like Story’s? The Story contract may be a warning about Xander’s next contract which will be huge thanks to Boras.
I’ll take him over Story any day of the week
darth – Red Sox Nation already regrets the Story signing. There’s a reason why so many other teams passed on him, and it’s not because of the money.
FACT: He has drastically declined for three consecutive years in literally every major offensive category (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS).
FACT: His arm is rated 153rd out of 159 2B/SS/3B in MLB.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?ye…
Everyone has been asking why Story never played SS when Xander did not, now we have the answer. The arm injury from last year will likely prevent him from ever playing SS again.
The Sox gave elite SS money to a guy who can’t play SS and can’t hit anywhere as good as he used to. I’ve said many times, if Bloom gets canned the Story signing will be a major reason why.
Pronounced Ay-oh-val-dee
He would have a better chance on the market if they traded him to a contending team where he could get a team to win in the postseason. I blame Bloom for not attempting to trade him. He wasn’t injured at the deadline.
They didn’t trade him because the players and Bloom himself wanted to give this current Squad a chance to go for it. Because he didn’t trade Nathan Eovaldi at the deadline I believe they will extend the qualifying offer.
So.., they get him in a redo or they get a pic. Win win despite not trading him at the deadline this year. I’m all good with what bloom did.
Really….win-win when you are rolling the dice on a $$$ big money QO for a guy who may start 30 games for you or more than likely as history has shown….may not start 15 games for you?
The gamble is a draft pick or get locked into an overpay for a 32 year old starter who can’t avoid injuries that take him out for big pieces of the season……that doesn’t seem like the type of build that Bloom wants to put forward with the Sox….
Bloom himself wanted to give this current Squad a chance to go for it.
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I’d have been okay either way. The decision was actually made for us when they told Bogaerts that they were keeping him, and I was okay with that. After that, it made sense to keep Eovaldi & JD.
Eovaldi was coming off an injury and had a 11.08 ERA in July. JD had a .599 OPS in July. Neither guy was going to get us much of a return.
Looking at it from the perspective of a QO, if neither Eovaldi nor JD are worth a QO, then why would anyone have traded anything for them at the same salary in ’22 that they will cost in ’23?
pwndroia;
Just one time I’d like to read something from a Red Sox fan on here that doesn’t blame Mr. Bloom for something…..oftentimes a made up slight as noted above.
Red Sox fans comments on here are becoming as legendary as Yankees fans wanting to trade Frazier and/or Andujar for one of another teams best players.
Samuel – I do not see what Gary wrote as a slight. A QO for Eovaldi if accepted is a one year contract which would not be the worst thing in the world as the Red Sox wait for Ward, Mata, Walter, or someone else to join Bello in the rotation. If Eovaldi turns it down then the Red Sox get a draft pick.
I also do not consider KD, AL34,…. Red Sox fans! They are trolls!!!
“He would have a better chance on the market if they traded him to a contending team where he could get a team to win in the postseason. I blame Bloom for not attempting to trade him.”
JC#1;
That’s not what a POBO is being paid to do. It’s hardly the responsibly of a FO head to help a player get a good contract from another organization next year.
This is nonsense.
@Samuel well, if you’ve read my comments, I’ve been critical about Bloom to an extent but have also praised him on some deals, notably for building the farm. I am not against the guy and willing to give him next year to make changes but I’m very much in the middle right now. Just trying to be realistic.
When you generalize, that doesn’t include everyone as a true statement, just so you know.
pwndroia: How do you know Bloom did not not attempt to trade Eovaldi?
I don’t know for sure but I think he could have been traded pretty easily. Again, I may be off. No reports indicated either way so I am assuming.
This Trevor Story thing.., don’t you have to keep him at second base because of his arm? Especially considering you’re on the hook for 5 more years? Can’t throw him at short and have him blow out his arm right?
This is all under the condition Xander Bogaerts leaves of course. And yes he WILL leave and sign elsewhere because Bloom just drafted a potential All Star shortstop who will be ready in two more years.
That’s a legitimate point. I’d have objection to a defense-first SS for the next 1-2 while waiting on Mayer. One of the few things to not change in 100 years is the value of up-the-middle defense.
I’m starting to like Casas but I’m wary of what happened with Dalbec raking early on. We’ll see.
I would like to keep Eovaldi on reasonable terms. I’d like to keep Hill and Wacha for the back of the rotation. What they really need is a rotation that can stay healthy or enough reliable pieces to absorb a few injuries. And they need a closer!
I’m starting to like Casas
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I wasn’t as high on Casas as most people, because of his lefty splits in the minors, but I am also a huge fan of the 17/16 K/W.
And I know that RPs are pretty unreliable, or inconsistent, but how good would Diaz look fronting Houck, Schreiber, etc. I think he makes everyone look better.
Joe – This recurring Diaz fantasy of yours is even sillier than last winter’s fantasy of signing Freeman.
Even if the Sox were in GFIN mode next year, they STILL wouldn’t even consider dropping $90M on a reliever..
Eovaldi has pitched 11 seasons in the Bigs, 238 games/219 games started, and his best seasons in wins are 14, 11, and 9.. I find it difficult to get excited by the thought of the Sox keeping him.
Sox resign Evoldi 3/$32 with incentives, why not?
My theory is that Story was a panic signing by Chaim Bloom because he did not sign any major players. The trade of Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. was utter stupidity and riding the season with No Hit Dalbac at first base was another major blow to the offense. Schwarber was a loss as well with his production. There was a reason why Story was available and teams passed on him. His production has dipped the last three years. That is why I say it was a panic sign by Bloom after dumpster diving the whole offseason.
Al – Great post as usual.
We’ve been down this road before.
Eight years ago the Sox gave another infielder a huge contract after he had drastically declined 3 years in a row.
That player’s name? Panda.
We all know how THAT worked out.
Fat Panda I remember him taking a swing and breaking his belt because he was so fat. What a disgrace he was.
My theory is John Henry told Bloom we need a big signing to show we are not cheap. Bloom then picked a potential lower cost replacement for Xander. I say this because John Henry was pointing out the “big signing” in an interview I read. If Bloom all of a sudden realized he did not sign any major players and panicked, as you speculate, why only one panic move and no panic moves at the trade deadline?
I don’t get why he did not trade JD Martinez, Eovaldi, and yet he dumped off Vazquez for minor league talent on a team we were playing that night. That was embarrassing for Vazquez and the Red Sox. I have no idea what the rush was for that trade. Maybe he did not want to show the fans he was giving up. I am not a fan of Chaim Bloom. He rode on Friedman’s (I’m not sure that was his name) shirt tails in Tampa and got credit for what Friedman had done. The spendthrift way may work in a small market like Tampa where they barely draw fans but not in major market Boston.
Al – I’m not a Bloom suckup, but he made the right move with Vazquez.
Bloom had no intention of re-signing Vaz, and he needed to give the young catchers some experience and see how they do. Getting the prospects was an added bonus, no matter how they turn out.
BTW – With tonight’s forfeit, the Red Sox have now had two losing seasons under Bloom and only one winning season. And that’s after he inherited a .519 winning team.
On the other hand Dombrowski, in his four years with the Sox, had 3 Division Champions and a 3rd place .519 winning team … and that was right after inheriting a team that had finished last in consecutive seasons.
But hey, Bloom will have a winning team in 2025 … or so some people say.
Fever Pitch Guy, I don’t know how Bloom fixes this mess, especially with the pitching staff. There are not that many good pitchers available in free agency and I cannot see Bloom going big money on any of them. Seabold looks like he needs more seasoning in the minors. None of the rookie pitchers except one looks earth shattering. Pivetta is a 4th or 5th guy at best, Wacha is not going to be able to handle a full season, Hill is 44 years old, Eovaldi is hurt a lot, and Sale has been hurt since 2018. Not to mention Wacha, Hill, and Eovaldi are all free agents.
Do you actually think the fans and sports writers in Boston are going to tolerate another disastrous season like this one? I forgot that Bloom has had two loosing seasons sandwiched around one winning one.
This is a mess and do you actually think Henry is going to give Bloom a blank check to fix it?
Bloom also overvalues his “Prospects” and hangs on to them in a death grip. A few God Willing will develop, most with be either career minor leaguers or flop.
What happened this year was an utter embarrassment and Henry cannot be happy with this. I just don’t know.. This past season all Bloom had to do was tinker with the team but now it is a disaster area. He is definitely on the “Firing Line” now.
Al – There will be a ton of money coming off the books by the end of next week, the question is how much spending will Henry allow and how well will Bloom spend it.
The only big contract Bloom has given is Story, and so far that’s looking like a major blunder.
Even if Devers doesn’t get traded this offseason, these are the holes that need to be filled:
SS
RF
DH
2 SP’S
3 RP’S
That’s based on the assumption Casas nails down 1B, the young catchers improve, and Sale returns to health (it’s gotta happen sometime, right?)
I can’t say much about Eovaldi and Paxton because I don’t have access to their medicals, but if they are both healthy I wouldn’t mind Eovaldi on a QO and Paxton on his player option. I think Wacha is gonna have so many suiters that Bloom will bow out of the bidding.
Bullpen should be good with one more stud reliever (bring back Otto?) added to Schreiber, Barnes and Whitlock or Houck.
Where they need to spend big money is on two stud hitters to replace Xander and JD.
Sox fans won’t tolerate another non-playoff season, anybody who thinks they will pay top dollar just to sit in Fenway is crazy. Like most people, I think Bloom has one more year to prove himself. It’s widely believed he’s on a 4-year contract, which means no extension after next year if he fails again.
As for Cora, if reports are right then he may be gone before next season.
Hey FPG, since our views are usually pretty much in line, what do you think of bringing Eovaldi back as the closer? I think he would be awesome at it. It worked wonders for Eck.
No chance. Starter money is usually double reliever money. Big Nate can still get starter money out there.
A piggyback thought is this. I really hope they keep Garrett Whitlock in the bullpen. Spend a little money and bring in a reliable starter because Bullpen pieces that are very good are so tough to find. Starters too but I’m still hoping they keep this gem where he belongs. In the 7th and 8th inning
Him making QO value is questionable at this point. 18-19 mil for a closer isn’t bad I don’t think
Gary – I think for the very reason you stated, there’s a chance Whitlock is made a starter. Because it would cost less to sign a quality reliever than it would a quality starter.
Too bad Bloom isn’t capable of finding hidden gems like Nestor Cortes.
DBH – I think, if healthy, he could work out of the pen. He did it successfully before and he certainly has the velocity to be a successful reliever.
But I don’t think he would agree to it. If he signs a one-year deal, he will want to re-establish his value as a starter which will earn him a more lucrative multi-year contract.