As the offseason approaches, MLBTR is taking a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Today, we’ll focus on first base, a group with a few well-regarded veterans coming off quality seasons at the top.
Top of the Class
- José Abreu (36*)
Abreu is coming off arguably the best season of any impending free agent first baseman. Even as he’s gotten into his mid-30s, he remains one of the better hitters in the game. Abreu carries a .304/.377/.445 line over 652 plate appearances, and he’s tied for the American League lead with 176 hits. He only has 15 home runs and is almost certain to finish with the lowest home run total of his nine-year MLB career, but he’s collected 36 doubles. Abreu also hasn’t lost much, if any, bat speed. His 92.1 MPH average exit velocity and 51.7% hard contact rate are both in line with the best marks of his career and near the top of the league overall. He’s hitting a few more ground-balls than before, but there’s no indication his physical abilities are dwindling.
Even heading into his age-36 season, Abreu will be one of the better offensive players on the market. Over the past three years, he owns a .289/.365/.489 line, ranking 14th in on-base percentage and 26th in slugging among 118 qualified hitters. He’s tough to strike out, has posted slightly above-average walk rates in each of the past two years and still has excellent batted ball metrics. He also hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons and has drawn plaudits for his clubhouse leadership in Chicago. The only real concern with Abreu is his age, but there’s already proof of concept he can remain productive beyond his prime-aged years. The White Sox issued him a qualifying offer back in 2019, meaning he’ll be ineligible to receive one this offseason.
- Josh Bell (30)
Bell has shown the ability to carry a lineup at his best. He hit 37 home runs with a .277/.367/.569 line for the Pirates in 2019, and he mashed at a .301/.384/.493 clip over 437 plate appearances with the Nationals earlier this season. Yet he’s also been prone to extended down stretches, and he’s headed towards free agency amidst a sharp downturn in production. Since the Padres landed him at the trade deadline, he’s hitting .191/.310/.280 with only a trio of homers in 45 games. He also had a rough 2020 season and started slowly last year before catching fire in the second half.
Even with some inconsistency, there’s a lot to like about Bell. His overall .265/.355/.452 line dating back to the start of 2021 is a fair bit better than the .254/.331/.440 league mark for first basemen. Bell is a switch-hitter with excellent plate discipline, and he consistently draws walks in over 10% of his plate appearances. He has three 25-homer seasons on his resume and typically rates near the top of the league in average exit velocity and hard contact percentage, although his batted ball metrics this season have been right around league average. Bell has shown a promising combination of power and patience in years past, and he’s not a prototypical strikeout-prone slugger. His 15.6% strikeout rate this season is nearly seven points lower than the league mark. He looks like an impact bat when everything’s clicking, but he’ll hit the market coming off a rough couple months. Because of the midseason trade, Bell is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.
Regulars
- Trey Mancini (31)
Mancini made an incredible comeback from a battle with colon cancer that cost him the entire 2020 season. He’s hit at a slightly above-average level in each of the following two years, compiling 39 total home runs with a .251/.326/.418 line. Mancini’s production in each of the last two years has been roughly the same: average strikeout and walk rates with slightly better than par batted ball metrics and power output. Mancini’s over-the-fence pop was down during his first few months with the Orioles this season, but that’s certainly in part due to the changing dimensions at Camden Yards that weren’t friendly to right-handed hitters. Mancini is more a solid hitter than an impact one, with his .291/.364/.535 showing in 2019 looking increasingly like an outlier. He does most things well, though, and he was a beloved clubhouse and community presence in Baltimore. Mancini probably wouldn’t have received a qualifying offer regardless, but a midseason trade to the Astros officially took that off the table.
Veterans Coming Off Down Years
- Yuli Gurriel (39)
Gurriel is a season removed from winning the American League batting title with a .319/.383/.462 showing in 2021. Unfortunately, he’s followed that up with a woeful .238/.283/.357 line over 558 plate appearances. Gurriel has been one of the least productive everyday players in the big leagues, and he’s now posted below-average showings in two of the past three seasons. Now past his 38th birthday, it seems he’s nearing or past the point where he’ll be a productive big leaguer. That also looked to be the case in 2020, though, and he responded with an excellent ’21 campaign. He’ll get another chance to do the same this winter, but there aren’t many positives to take away from his 2022 performance.
- Carlos Santana (37)
One of the game’s best on-base hitters at his peak, Santana has seen his production dip over the past three years. He had well below-average numbers in 2020-21 but has bounced back somewhat this season, compiling a .194/.311/.378 line in 473 plate appearances between the Royals and Mariners. The sub-Mendoza line batting average is an obvious eyesore, but Santana’s overall hitting checks in at league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s largely thanks to his extremely patient approach, which has allowed him to work a walk in 14.2% of his plate appearances even as his results on batted balls have plummeted. Santana is probably miscast as a regular at this stage of his career, but he’s gotten significant run between first base and designated hitter with two teams this year thanks to his plate discipline.
- Brandon Belt (35)
Like Gurriel, Belt was one of the better first basemen in 2021. A .274/.378/.597 showing earned him an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Giants, which he accepted. The left-handed hitter didn’t come close to replicating that production this season, with his year largely derailed by knee problems. Belt hit .213/.326/.350 over 298 plate appearances while battling injury, and he underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee earlier this month. Indications are the surgery went well and he’s going to be ready for Spring Training. When healthy, Belt is capable of anchoring a lineup. Yet he’s battled plenty of injuries in recent years, and this trip to the market comes on the heels of a season diminished by knee issues.
Multi-Positional Players
- Brandon Drury (30)
Drury will probably draw interest from teams looking for help all around the infield. He’s played mostly third base this season but also logged 25+ games at each of second and first base. A minor league signee by the Reds last winter, Drury has elevated his stock with a career showing in 2022. He mashed at a .274/.335/.520 clip with 20 homers in 385 plate appearances with Cincinnati. The Reds flipped him to the Padres at the trade deadline. He’s tailed off in San Diego, posting a meager .265 on-base percentage but collecting another eight round-trippers in 37 games. Drury looked to be in journeyman territory at this time last year, but his .261/.316/.501 cumulative line this season should get him a multi-year deal.
- Donovan Solano (35)
Drury’s former teammate in Cincinnati, Solano plays a similar bat-first utility role. He’s worked mostly as a designated hitter this year, but he’s played frequently at the corner infield spots and second base as well. He’s hitting .292/.343/.397 over 280 plate appearances, his fourth straight above-average offensive year since reemerging late in his career as a member of the Giants. A glove-first second baseman early in his career with the Marlins, he’s compensated for declining defensive marks by hitting .280 or better in four consecutive seasons. Solano doesn’t walk much or have a ton of power, but his high-average game is atypical in today’s offensive environment. As with Drury, teams aren’t going to view him as an everyday option at first base, but he’s a good addition to a bench who can cover multiple spots on the infield.
Depth Types
- Jesús Aguilar (33)
Aguilar hit 35 home runs a few seasons ago, and he was still an above-average hitter with the Marlins between 2020-21. The 2022 season has been a struggle, as he hit .236/.286/.388 over 456 plate appearances with the Fish and was released late last month. He hooked on with the Orioles but hasn’t contributed much in 12 games in Baltimore. Aguilar could be looking at a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite this winter.
- Colin Moran (30)
A regular for a few seasons with the Pirates, Moran was on and off the Reds roster this year. He hit only .211/.305/.376 with five homers in 128 MLB plate appearances and posted slightly below-average numbers in Triple-A. Cincinnati released him earlier this month.
A longtime minor leaguer, Schwindel had a fantastic second half to the 2021 campaign. Getting his first extended MLB action with the Cubs, he hit .342/.389/.613 over 56 games. Chicago gave him an opportunity to see if he could emerge as a late-blooming regular, but he hit .229/.277/.358 in 292 trips to the plate this season. The Cubs released Schwindel last week.
- Yoshi Tsutsugo (30)
Tsutsugo caught on with the Pirates late in 2021 and had a great final month. That earned him a $4MM contract to return to Pittsburgh, but he stumbled to a .171/.249/.229 line with only two homers in 193 plate appearances. The Bucs released him in August, and he signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. He’s hitting well in Triple-A overall but striking out a third of the time there, and he hasn’t gotten a big league call from Toronto. Whether the Jays eventually add him to the MLB roster or not, he’ll be a free agent at year’s end.
Player Options
- Anthony Rizzo (33), $16MM player option
Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee with the Yankees last offseason. That deal afforded him an opt-out chance after this year, and there’s a solid case for Rizzo to take it following his best season since 2019. He’s connected on 32 home runs and slugged .492. Rizzo’s .223 batting average is among the worst of his career, but that’s largely due to a personal-worst .212 average on balls in play. A pull hitter who has been shifted on over 84% of his at-bats this season, per Statcast, he’s likely to be among the top beneficiaries of the forthcoming shift limitations. Even a slight uptick in his ball in play results could help Rizzo regain his peak form, since he’s still hitting the ball hard and is difficult to strike out.
The longtime Cub has a strong defensive reputation, although his public metrics have dipped over the past couple seasons. He’s also widely regarded as an excellent clubhouse presence and team leader. If Rizzo triggers his opt-out clause, the Yankees would have the ability to make him a qualifying offer.
- Eric Hosmer (33), can opt out of final three years and $39MM remaining on his contract
There’s little intrigue with Hosmer’s opt-out decision. He’ll certainly opt in to the final $39MM on his deal (almost all of which will be paid by the Padres) to return to the Red Sox. Hosmer has a .267/.333/.381 line with eight homers in 414 plate appearances this season.
Club Options
- Wil Myers (32), $20MM team option with $1MM buyout
The Padres will obviously buy Myers out, likely ending an eight-year run in the organization. Aside from a monster showing during the shortened 2020 campaign, the right-handed hitter has been a slightly above-average hitter for most of his time in San Diego. This season’s .255/.306/.379 showing across 265 plate appearances is his worst as a Padre, and he’s been limited to a situational role — primarily between the corner outfield and first base. Myers has some power and is a serviceable defender in the corners. He’s likely to land a big league deal but is probably miscast as an everyday player.
- Miguel Sanó (30), $14MM team option with $3MM buyout
Sanó’s time with the Twins is probably nearing its end, as Minnesota is certain to buy out his 2023 option. The burly slugger has almost as much raw power as anyone in the sport, but his production has been inconsistent because of his huge strikeout totals. Sanó played in only 20 games this season because of left knee issues and hit terribly when on the field.
Note: Albert Pujols is playing on a one-year contract with the Cardinals and will technically qualify for free agency at season’s end. He has started 18 games at first base, but he’s already announced he’ll retire after the 2022 campaign.
* Player age for 2023 season
Previous FA positional previews: catcher
Yankees should keep Rizzo, There aren’t many other lefthanded options out there.
Even with his back issues, he’s definitely worth keeping. Maybe he gets a 3 year deal with about the same AAV if he opts out.
Three is the absolute max the Yankees should give. Also, if Stanton is injured they can always pop him in at DH to help him out.
You mean *when* Stanton is injured
No. Just because the 1B class is weak doesn’t mean you give 3 years to a guy with creaky back. If he opts out let him walk. He hits in the low .220s. The correct move was to aggressively bid for Freeman, a hitter who can slug – the best kind of hitter. Yet the Braves and Yankees tried to be a smartypants and look where it’s got them. Hits >>> walks.
It’s a one year player option.
There’s no argument that Freeman’s avg blows away Olson’s. Both of them have been very productive for their team. Freddie chose (imo to be stubbornly foolish) to insist on the additional year, instead of staying where he was ultra successful AND ultra popular. Is he regretting his decision financially? NO. Is he regretting it personally? Imho, the answer is YES. Are the Braves satisfied with Matt Olson’s production? That’s a resounding YES, as well. Both teams (& players) are heading to the playoffs.
Agree with you both. There aren’t any available 1B that would serve the Yankees any better than Rizzo, back problems and all. And, he’s markedly better than any in-house option. Yanks simply missed out on a long-term 1B option in someone like Goldy. But, it looks as though Cashman was spot-on in signing Rizzo over trading for Olson, at least for now, as much as I hate to admit it.
Also, Rizzo has a unique player makeup where he thrives in NYC; the same cannot be said for other potential 1B, and that may mean as much as any stat line.
If, and I know it’s a big if, Belt could stay healthy, he’d be an upgrade over Rizzo. But, since Belt hasn’t been able to stay healthy, I’d go with Rizzo, him being 2 years younger. It could go either way though. Belt says the knee feels great, and sometimes back issues can be more troublesome than knees.
I usually agree with your posts, but this one . . .not so much. It’s time for Belt to retire. And anyone signing him is probably throwing away good money. The guy has a great glove, but he’s so streaky and so injury prone, that he’s a liability—which is what the Giants learned this year, for $18.4M.
We can agree to disagree. Belt was one of the most underrated guys in MLB. I blame his poor 2022 on the injury to the knee. Up until this year his career 125 OPS+ had him tied with guys like Anthony Rendon, Yogi Berra, as well as 6 other guys in the HoF, and better than Nolan Arenado’s 124 OPS+.
Whether he should retire is dependent on his knee. At this point, given his injuries Belt would be a huge gamble, and I do think the Giants should move on, but a healthy Belt is still better than a healthy Rizzo.
I think “the gamble” is the most salient point.
Well, every FA signing is a gamble. It just varies player to player. But even what’s perceived as a safe gamble can turn sour.
Of course, but red flags are red flags
@tab – there’s no chance I’m taking Belt over Rizzo. While neither player avoids the injury list, Belt has done a better job of using its unlimited days policy. He’s never produced that ‘wow’ season, nor does he have the Rizzo clubhouse factor. Similar in many ways, but Rizzo’s bat takes this one.
Didn’t know .224 was “thriving”. Aguilar was cut with a .236! I would describe that more as Holding On.
Haha! I know, I know, different game. But, he handles NY well, comes up big in clutch moments, and loves playing here, as opposed to Joey Gallo, for example.
Moreover, although the BA leaves a lot to be desired, his OBP is .337, slugging of .492 = OPS of .829 & OPS+ of 133. By all’s counts he’s one of the better 1B in the league.
@stymeedone – are you really comparing batting averages as a metric for how good a player is? In a one year sample size, no less.
I can see going two years on Rizzo. But that chronic back ailment nixes any chance for a three-four-or more deal.
Long term commitments to brittle players are almost always a mistake.
Matt Carpenter would be the perfect replacement for Rizzo at first base if he opts out and signs with another team. Not as good defensively, but an upgrade offensively if his swing changes are real and a 1.138 OPS over 154 PA doesn’t seem like a fluke. Also, LeMahieu could play first base on days when Carpenter is off or the DH.
I feel just the opposite about Carpenter. 154 PAs is about 400 PAs short of a full season, so basically small sample. Not sure I’d want to gamble on 157 PAs.
His numbers since 2018 have been so bad that I can’t help think if 2022 wasn’t a fluke, it’s still a statistical outlier, not to be counted on. Not to mention the defensive edge that Rizzo brings.
He’s also much older than Rizzo. He’s a potential for an excellent backup but not a full time option.
Carpenter has been one of the players hurt most by the shift, which will be gone in 2023. He has the highest wOBA when not shifted against in MLB this year.. Also, Carpenter wasn’t that bad in 2019 (15 HR, 1.7 fWAR).. 2020 was the Covid season when the Cardinals were shut down for 2 weeks, so not really judging anybody on that team that year. His numbers were terrible in 2021, but most of his at-bats came as a pinch hitter – after being an everyday player for most of his career – because he didn’t have a position after the Cardinals traded for Goldschmidt and Arenado. His batted ball data and expected statistics in 2021 were actually pretty good. I disagree that 154 PA (approximately 25% of a full season) is a “small sample.” And he also had a .992 OPS and 6 HR in around 100 PA in AAA before he turned into Barry Bonds incarnated with the Yankees.
As a Rays fan, yes please to Carpenter. I’d love for you to place the entire position un his lap at this stage! Classic yankee fan–only knows about a player when he dons the pinstripes. (Psst: ask a Cardinals fan if they would take him as an everyday position player anywhere on the diamond…he used to play there, you know.)
Yes, he had a resurgence–over a quarter of a season. Backup utility guy? Sure. Full-time starting first baseman? Please!
I’m pretty sure the Rays would love to have Matt Carpenter as their everyday first baseman since he would be a massive upgrade over J-Man Choi (.223/.332/.365). And based on the multiple standing ovations Carpenter received from Cardinals fans when the Yankees visited St. Louis earlier this year, I’m pretty sure they would be happy to have him as their everyday DH in 2023 since Pujols is going to retire.
Since 2018 Choi has averaged a 114 OPS+, Carpenter a 101 OPS+. Carpenter is not a sure upgrade over Choi, and would be a huge mistake if the small sample 2022 was a fluke.
In 2020-2022 (3 seasons), Choi has produced a combined 1.8 fWAR in 847 PA.
In 2022, Carpenter produced 2.3 fWAR in 154 PA.
Yeah, the Rays would definitely replace Choi with Carpenter as their everyday first baseman in 2023 if they had the chance to do so.
Still, 154 PAs is a small sample. Teams are not fooled by an atypical performance over that small a sample.
If Carpenter reverts to 2019-’20-’21 form, they’d severely regret replacing Choi with him.
The shift won’t b gone it will just b limited. A player like Carpenter will just have SS playing right up the against the bag and 2B shaded towards first. Well it may help players like him a bit, most of these dead pull hitters are not the fastest guys. The gains will b minimal.
@tad2b13
Can you explain how you “fluke” 9 doubles, 15 home runs, and an OBP of .412
Sure his numbers may regress a little if he plays a full season, but he apparently went away and worked on his swing and watched lots of video footage before this season. You really can’t say it’s a “fluke” facing major league pitching and hitting well, even though he probably had about a quarter of AB’s as opposed to a full season.
@Sideline Wino- how’d you get so smart? Do you really think you’re favorite team will be able to afford Matt Carpenter? Lol. Keep dreaming and drinking, and that just might come true in your delusional state. As always thanks for another laugh, funny guy.
Sideline Redwine: given the fact you’re a Rays fan, I assume you live in Florida, perhaps the Tampa area even. I just wanted to say that you’re in our thoughts and prayers as Hurricane Ian tracks towards the west coast. Hopefully this does not impact the way in which it is currently purported to. Stay safe.
To be fair…. Carpenter’s injury was freakish — an accident, as opposed to long term wear and tear on a knee, back or elbow.
He’d make a good insurance policy for the Yankees — where he thrived under that notorious NY pressure — or several other clubs.
I don’t care about the shift. His power was up due to the short fence. If he opts out, wave bye,bye. Let some other schmuck pay him for an average that will decline over the life of the contract.
@stymeedone
Whilst I agree it is a short porch, you still have to hit the baseball, and as far as home runs, you still have to hit it over that “short fence”. It isn’t as easy as you make it sound, short or not.
Not very likely the Yankees can afford to pay Rizzo 16 million aav and Judge 37+
Of course they can afford to pay them both. They are paying them a combined $35 million this year. Chapman and Britton coming off the books frees up an additional $30 million.
The Yankees are 30 million over the luxury tax threshold, they need to improve other areas of the roster and they have arbitration raises….
Don’t worry; Hal Wilpon won’t pay anywhere near Judge’s asking price when he’s stuck with longterm obligations to Stanton and Cole, plus another year of Donaldson at $25.5 mm.
If Rizzo opts out of $16 million dollars next season, he’s likely gone.
Padres and Bell could be interesting.
Giants and Bell could be interesting.
Once again we can disagree. Bell isn’t the Giant’s type player. Too one-dimensional; a bat first guy without positional flexibility.
Well, they went with Belt all these years (and I don’t think anyone would call him a LF). Among other things,the Giants need a full-time bat at first or . . . maybe it’s a J.D. Davis/Lamonte platoon with occasional appearances by Wilmer and Joc (if they resign him and he’s willing to).
Of course, Villar will be playing some there too, but I think he’ll spend most of his time at 3B, unless they sign Devers.
There’s also the possibility they sign a SS, and bump Crawford to 3B.
I’d be happy with Davis full time at 1B. Has earned it.
How about Darren Ruf for JD Davis straight up, he plays 1st base.
The Giants should try a new strategy of having a bunch of talented players who mostly only play one position well instead of a bunch of cast-offs who play multiple positions poorly. That strategy worked pretty well for almost the entire history of baseball.
How many teams have talent at a bunch of positions? And your using a pejorative like cast-offs is kind of transparent. Not sure how guys like Rodon, Flores, Yaz, Estrada, etc. would feel about that description.
@ted
How is that strategy working for the marlins and nationals?
i think the multipositional strategy works pretty well for the dodgers and the yankees and the mets and the braves but i guess we cant judge anything by the teams that already have their playoff spots locked a couple weeks before the end of the season.
Angel Rodon or Carlos Rodon?
@tedtheodorelogan – “The Giants should try a new strategy of having a bunch of talented players who mostly only play one position well instead of a bunch of cast-offs who play multiple positions poorly. That strategy worked pretty well for almost the entire history of baseball.”
– Yeah, that strategy works well if the one player you bank on playing that position doesn’t slump and is healthy all year. Otherwise, you wind up with a very top-heavy team that has to scramble for depth when a player inevitably gets injured.
Flors has been mediocre his entire career, Yaz is proving to be a AAAA player, which is why he was available to begin with, and Estrada is mediocre as well. Rodon is awesome. Too bad he will only be with SF for the one year since Farhan didn’t think he was worth paying long term. When Joc and Wilmer are your two best hitters you aren’t winning anything.
@tedtheodorelogan
That… has nothing to do with your original point that I was commenting on. You’re talking about a top-down approach (“having a bunch of talented players who mostly only play one position well”) while signing players like Wilmer and Joc is more of a bottom-up approach.
The problem with that top-down approach is you end up being pigeonholed with whichever players you have that can play that position well. So teams like the Phillies don’t really have a great solution to Castellanos not hitting well, or the Padres resort to guys like Cano or Mazara to fill-in, which went about as well as expected.
Looking at the 2022 Giants, it looks like they wanted to have some combination of lineup mainstays (such as Belt, Longo, Crawford, Yaz, and Bart), with fill-in players surrounding them (Wilmer, Joc, Gonzalez, Ruf, Estrada). Unfortunately, everybody in that mainstay list has been either injured, underperformed, or both. But ideally, with this approach, they can mix and match as needed. Longo’s out with an injury? Sub in Wilmer. Belt is slumping? Sub in Ruf or Wade Jr.
You don’t necessarily have to agree with that tactic, but I hope you can at least realize that it makes sense. And worked in 2021. The “bunch of cast-offs who play multiple positions poorly” defended quite well, so that’s not really a great argument. Or, I guess they could’ve signed Castellanos and Schwarber, because they only play one position, right?
Bell is way too inconsistent for me to invest anything significant in.
Not really. He’s been 50 shades of suck in SD.
José Abreu is a great guy, coming off a (almost) $20m contract.
Power has deteriorated. Still a professional hitter. Should be a DH only, not allowed to play1B – he hurts the pitching staff playing there.
A perfect fit to replace McCutchen with the Brewers if they can get him for $15-17m…..especially playing home games in a dome.
Doubt Mr. Reinsdorf will let him leave.
Power actually hasn’t, launch angle has. His max exit velocity is 89th percentile and average exit velocity is 93rd. It’s really an issue of launch angle, which is only 8 degrees this year after being at least 9.9 every other year. As good a year as he’s having (132 OPS+ in line with his career 134), he actually could be significantly better if he’d get the ball in the air more.
I was thinking of Abreu as a good fit with the Marlins. They need a professional hitter in their lineup more than any team I can think of. The DH spot is wide open there and be great influence on younger players. The Cuban community in Miami might even show up to watch some games.
Have you watched ANY White Sox games this year? Abreu is ok at 1B. Probably the best defender there on the team.
aj2005;
LOL
Yes, I have watched some Sox games this year. And yes, Abreu is “probably the best defender there on the team.”
Unfortunately, he’s still a below average MLB 1B……
Which is one of many problems with that team.
Since 2020, Abreu ranks second in Outs Above Average among qualified first basemen.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_aver…
Yes. I appreciate all that Abreu has done for the Sox threw the years but it’s time to cut the cord and let him move on. Put Vaughn at first and please quit the experimenting with moving 1st basemen to the OF.
Abreu seems to be striking out more this season and hits into quite a few DP’s . And like you said, power is down by quite a bit.
If Reinsdorf keeps him then he’s just hurting some younger talent.
Idk why you think he’s striking out more. He is putting up the best K% of his career by a decent margin.
I am a Padres fan and I wonder what will happen to Wil Myers.
Earlier this season, I thought he would not be able to find a MLB roster spot after this season. He has rebounded to the point where I no longer think that.
This yeah, SD has started him at RF, 1B, LF, and DH, and even given him some starts in CF, made a brief appearance at 3B, and even pitched 4 times. I wonder how much of that was as a favor to Myers. The club knew they were moving on from him, so they wanted him to build a good free agency case around his versatility.
How good is Myers in RF? The Tigers might be looking for an OF, Myers’ versatility would help his case. However, this probably would only be a one-year prove-it deal.
Gruß,
BSHH
The new POBO Harris has said he wants athletes. That rules Myers out.
I’ve watched a ton of Wil Myers over the years and I love the guy, but he’s kind of an enigma. As a Padres fan I actually kind of blame the team’s mismanagement of him for some issues.
They didn’t really do him any favors by proclaiming him the face of the franchise early on. He’s low key and the added pressure/expectations seemed to hurt. They’ve also played him out of position for extended periods of time, which has negatively impacted his offensive numbers. He really has no business in CF defensively and I’m not sure why they thought it was a good idea for him to play 3B at the MLB level with no prior experience.
My ultimate point here is that Wil is kind of finicky and probably shouldn’t be moving all over the diamond. They way to get the most out of him is in a situation like Cincy (non competitive team, hitters ballpark) on a cheap deal and play everyday at 1B. He should rake in that scenario and then they can flip him at the deadline.
Myers has no versatility
I don’t really see the White Sox parting ways with Abreu, assuming he wants to stay (couldn’t blame him if he didn’t after this year’s showing). JR’s loyal, especially to those who’ve shown the Sox loyalty and chief among those is Abreu. One thing this article doesn’t mention is that he’s actually 3rd among 1B in OAA, so he’s developed into a solid defender over the years. He’s also in the 97th percentile in hard hit % and 93rd percentile in Avg Exit Velocity. Biggest knock physically is that he’s very slow, but he’s not paid to steal bases.
Biggest reason for the Sox to not bring him back is because he’s blocking Vaughn, but Vaughn still isn’t hitting at Abreu’s level and might be a worse defender at 1B. It would leave a hole in RF that the Sox have shown an apparent unwillingness to take seriously.
As a Cardinals fan I have complete respect for showing loyalty to aging stars, but it seems like the Sox only chance to get better is to reduce the number of 1B/DH types on the roster. It sounds like they are bumping up against a payroll ceiling, so the money is a factor and needed elsewhere. I guess the Sox have to decide if they are playing the long or short game on this rebuild. If it’s win now, future be damned, then they could always trade Vaughn and pay Abreu I suppose.
@donosbourne
You have it exactly. To fix the defense, Eloy has to dh so either Vaughn or Abreu has to go to, so a solid defensive OF can be added. Abreu being let go gives them payroll as well.
Jose A. Geez. Lost track of him. 36 in January. Woah. Pretty sure his agent is going for the best deal. IE longest term offer. Thinking most GMs looking for help at 1st base will shy away because of this age factor. That said; it only takes one GM to pull the trigger. Who will it be?
His agent works for him. If Abreu demanded that he only negotiate with the White Sox, his agent will only negotiate with the White Sox.
That said, as Don pointed out, Sox may finally move on from either Abreu or Vaughn. I don’t think it will happen because roster construction to this point hasn’t exactly been their strongsuit, but if they get smarter and decide to move one of them, I think they let Abreu walk. Go with the younger, cheaper guy. It won’t be popular with fans, but you know what would be popular? Catching fly balls hit to RF.
Been a diehard Sox fan for over 60 years and nothing the Sox have done recently is popular with the fans. I know Abreu wasn’t one of the loafers this season but like it’s been noted, he’s slow, his power is down and some of his swings have looked atrocious. But the kicker, as always, is Reinsdorf’s blind loyalty. With Abreu, Vaughn and Sheets, something has to give and I’m afraid it has to be Abreu.
It may be time to move Tim Anderson off SS. The pitching is too good to have such an awful IF defense. A different Tony LaRissa would’ve recognized the problem.
A lot of potential retirements on this list.
Abreu is probably not leaving the White Sox.
Bell has been awful in San Diego.
Mancini has hit for power in Houston (14 of his 27 hits have been for extra bases) but not much else
Hosmer is interesting because even though he likely doesn’t opt-out of his remaining contract there is no guarantee he’ll be back in Boston next year with the emergence of Tristan Casas. The Sox may still cut him loose this winter
He’s still a very good hitter. Not worth the contract for SD, but for the Sox? 3 years at league minimum? Hosmer is on the bench for the next 3. It is win-win for both Hos and Bos
Yeah, I don’t see the Sox letting Jose go, unless he gets an offer too rich for them. He’s the leader of a team that desperately needs one.
Wil Myers is a nice fit in Anaheim if he wants to come here. Walsh was never good against LH pitchers. LF is more suspect than prospect, Trout is always a risk to Spend time on the IL, and Ward, although solid this year, still has questions around him.
Myers is a plan B at several positions which would likely turn into plan A ABs.
Wil Myers is a RH bat and not a fit in LAA. He is however, a wildcard on this list.
The RH bat and his ability to play outfield makes him a fit.
Walsh has not hit LH pitchers. Adell is horrible against LH pitchers, and only a little better against RH pitchers.
I think Moniak has no chance.
IMO, Myers is a great plan “B” who will likely get plan “A” ABs. He’s exactly the type of affordable depth the Angles should be looking to add.
Matt Carpenter hit 15 HR with a 1.138 OPS in 154 PA and can play first base. I assume MLBTR views him as a DH only guy even though he has played 1B, 3B, LF and RF for the Yankees in 2022. Carpenter should arguably be ranked ahead of every 1B on this list besides Abreu and Rizzo, especially if he could be signed on a 1-year deal.
With the shift gone, Carpenter becomes even more viable.
I don’t think anyone believes Carpenter will put up numbers like that, or even average, again. He was a minor league waiver wire claim. It’s like believing Cueto will have another reallly good year next year.
They could’ve listed him with Pujols as an honorable mention type though
I was looking for the right word to describe Carpenter. Viable seems appropriate. That shift hurt a lot of hitters. I’m really looking forward to the game being played without it.
I agree that nobody believes he will put up a 1.138 OPS over a full season. I do think everybody believes he will put up numbers well above the 2022 average for MLB first baseman (.245/.331/.440), especially with the shift being eliminated.
They could’ve listed him with Pujols as an honorable mention type? So you think the players mentioned as “depth pieces” – Jesus Aguilar, Colin Moran and Frank Schwindel – are going to attract more interest from teams than Matt Carpenter? LOL.
He was below average hitter for the 3 years prior to this season and he’ll be 37. Those 3 seasons hold a lot more weight than the out of place numbers he put up this year
He only started three games at first base this season, which is why I didn’t include him here. He’ll be mentioned later in this series.
I hope to God Carpenter stays on the Yankees for the simple fact that we’d get to see that Halloween costume looking mustache for another season.
I’d imagine they’ll be strong mutual interest.
Not a very strong !Bmen class in 2023. I think most teams will look internally, like the Cubs will. It will be bad if the Yanks do not sign Judge.
I’d love to see the Buccos get Bell back, but I know it won’t happen.
Tbh, I do not care much for Bell. He was just too much of a frustrating player to me. Up and down years, One year he hits for power, one year he hits for more OBP and AVG. The next he has no sembelance of consistency throughout the year. Not to mention that he is a poor defender at 1B. Much of the same this year. Great start with Washington but has struggled in San Diego. We’re also talking about a guy with less than 10 fWAR in well over 800 games played. I get that WAR isn’t the be-all-end-all, but I just think Bell is overrated.
Every one of these players has an issue. Several are on the old side and others are subject to significant slumps. I’m a Giants fan and they need a first baseman. Abreu would be attractive if it wasn’t for his age. I’m also guessing the change wouldn’t help. Bell is either very good or very bad. Big risk giving him a big contract. After seeing this list, wouldn’t be surprised to see Belt get a two year contract with a mutual option after one year.
No chance Belt is getting a two year contract coming off a down year and knee surgery. He’s probably looking at a one year contract for a small guarantee plus incentives.
Some smart organization should give Justin Bour a ST invite. Lots of power and will be aided by reduction of shifts.
Anyone interested in a lightly used Rhys Hoskins?
That’s what I was going to say. I wonder how many other 1Bs will be on the trade market. Given the free agency class, Hoskins might be the 2nd/3rd best available 1B? Trade him for some pitching and move Bohm to 1st.
Who had Abreu outperforming Rizzo the last three years? Not me.
Well as with Trudeau’s speech in Canada…………..with no shots need to enter, I”d probably wait to see what’s left. Bell to a East or Midwest would be a good bet I think. That west coast air is a real bog.
“Rizzo’s .223 batting average is among the worst of his career, but that’s largely due to a personal-worst .212 average on balls in play. ”
How can a players batting average be better than his average on balls in play? The only way his average could increase is if he hit balls in play.
Nearly a third of Rizzo’s hits are home runs. BAbip is calculated by subtracting home runs from their total hits, then dividing it by at-bats minus home runs and strikeouts and adding sac-files. The formula is (Hits-HR)/(ABs-HR-K’s+SF). When that many of your total hits are dingers, it’s going to happen. Betts also has a slightly lower BA than BAbip, Yordan Alvarez also is pretty close. Pete Alonso is another guy who is within ten points of his BAbip.
Positive takeaways from Gurriel’s 2022 season?
38 doubles and superior defense
Carlos Santana is a good bounceback candidate with the new shift rules. He’s been a good defensive 1B the last 5 years or so, and he’s obviously still an elite eye at the plate. The elimination of the shift will help an unsightly .193 BABIP, as he’s been one of the most shifted-against players in the last few years.
If I’m, let’s say the Nationals, I would take him on a one year flier to see if he can rebound and fetch you something at the deadline.
Babe Ruth, Otani? Who would win a hot-dog eating competition
Ruth
Ohtani. Such things actually take a great deal of athleticism which Ohtani is head and shoulders above Ruth in.
Ohtani, would win easily. Dead men don’t eat hotdogs.
well youre not wrong
If the Padres don’t bring back Bell, I could see Mancini as a fit for them.
I thought there was an asterisk next to Abreu’s age because it was in question! Serious question. He’s had a great career, but I noticed he was playing in what would be considered pro ball in Cuba in the country’s top league, supposedly as a 16-year-old. Do position players play in the top league in their mid-teens?
His power is down, but his plate discipline is better than ever, and his barrel and hard-hit rates remain elite. Does he get another three-year contract from the Sox?
Yes, that’s not rare in Cuba.
No, God willing. No way. He’s blocking 2 players at this point. I guess if he came back on a 1 year deal and would be DH then maybe. He’s not dead weight like Grandal but Grandal still has another season on his contract. Sheets may not be an everyday player either but he’s lefthanded and the Sox lack that big time.
I’m not even sure about his plate discipline. Like most of the team, he swings at some un_Godly bad pitches. If any team gives him more than 1 year it will be a mistake. My opinion of course.
Any team in need of a 1B would be happy to sign Abreu to a 1 year contract. The problem is that he will likely sign for more than one. Therein lies the gamble.
“Wins are a good way of evaluating pitchers and player opt-out clauses benefit teams!” XD XD XD
Abreu can probably get around 2/40 considering he’s at least 36. Good fit on any number of clubs since he would be a nice DH even for clubs set at 1B.
Someone could acquire Miguel Cabrera to be the 2023 version of Albert Pujols.
That would require someone to actually trade FOR him and for him to waive his 10-and-5 rights.
I’d like to see Bell at 1B in a Brewer uniform next year. But unfortunately, it won’t happen with Stearns/Counsell still in place.
Won’t be *that* expensive with how bad he has been in San Diego.
I can’t see Rizzo opting out. Unless they have a bigger offer on the table to extend him an extra 2 years.
Hosme’s definitely not opting out. No chance he gets 39 mil for 5 years let aloe 3.
Depending on what the Friars do in the rest of the postseason I think they re-sign Josh Bell. I can see them going after a veteran like Abreu. Maybe a 1 year deal with a club option.
Wouldn’t mind seeing the Nats do a cheap deal on Wil Myers. A vet presence can play 1b/3b & all 3 OF spots. Decent stick & glove. Only 32. Won’t cost a lot. Can probably play 140 games. Nats roster isn’t deep and prospects are still a year to three away.