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- Padres, Manager Mike Shildt Finalizing Contract Extension
- Shohei Ohtani Undergoes Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training
- Rangers Hire Skip Schumaker As Senior Advisor; Expected To Hire Luis Urueta As Bench Coach
- A’s GM: “We’re Going To Keep [Brent Rooker]”
- Posey: Giants Pursuing Shortstops
- 2024-25 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
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I’m not even a Yankee fan but Judge is the AL MVP in my mind.
I think Judge has the more attractive power numbers, but Ohtani is still doing historic things. I don’t think people realize how unique and incredible he is.
Agreed, but I don’t think people are realizing what judge is doing either
But people have done what Judge is doing. Very few, and some of those few cheated. No one has done what Ohtani is doing.
Just for the record, Hanser Alberto is the 2nd best two-way player in the game right now. lol
Hanser is the freakin MAN and if the Dodgers don’t retain him the Halos certainly would like him! That guy is just a great clubhouse guy and a clutch gamer…He reminds me of so many different players. Everyone should luv Hanser! Easily the 2nd best 2 way player.
Actually somebody did back in 1919.
In 1919, Ruth was a phenomenal hitter over a full season and an average pitcher in 133-1/3 innings. Does his awesome hitting compensate for his okay pitching. Most likely yes.
And in the 4 previous seasons to 1919 Ruth had a 172 OPS+ and a 132 ERA+. His decline as a pitcher began in 1919, and that decline wasn’t unusual in that era, having averaged 258 IP in each of those 4 years.
Hanser. Loved him here in Baltimore. Rarely struck out. Free swinger. Entertaining. Hope he makes the LA playoff roster.
It does seem that the Braves are more interested in long term deals for position players.
Orioles owner Angelos has given GM Elias the okay to spend this off season. I’m curious to see which current players on the roster and maybe potential FAs they’ll choose to lock in long term.
If it were me, I’d go the Braves route. Position players not pitchers because of the, and to Mark’s point, injury factor. Rutschman, Mullins and possibly Henderson come to mind.
I think that Judge wins the MVP and that it won’t be as close as people think. I know what Shohei is doing, he is having an incredible year and doing it from both sides. Judge is having an all time great season though. I don’t think it is an “easy” call per-se, but I do think Judge is gonna take it by 2/3 of the vote.
Judge is doing something less than a handful of people have ever done. Ohtani is doing things no one has ever done. Judge should not get 2/3 of the vote. He is incredible. Don’t get me wrong. Ohtani is doing the impossible though.
I’m definitely not saying he SHOULD get 2/3 of the vote it’s just the way I’m thinking they might lean. I do realize what Shohei is doing is unprecedented. It will be interesting to see where the final vote tallys lay though. Maybe more like 60-40 but its just my guess.
Von, if you keep swaying me I might end up at 50-50 haha. It really is just a guess though. I thought Trout was gonna win it his first 2 years. The 61 thing could get the writers all fired up and nostalgic I just don’t know.
I do think Judge is going to get it, and I wouldn’t be upset. But I think Ohtani is getting overshadowed by the homerun record.
Von, to be clear, you’re basically saying Ohtani should win the MVP award for the next decade straight as long as he stays healthy, because he will never face a candidate having a year like Judge.
That’s what I think basically as long as he continues to perform
Yea as crazy as it sounds. Of course only if he continues to be very good pitching amd hitting. I think Ohtani is havinh a better year than last season.
@LordD99 If you ask me, Ohtani has to hit like an MVP and pitch like a CY Young winner to be in the MVP conversation. Like for example, let’s say next year he has a .800 OPS and 3.70 ERA. I don’t think anyone would be having him up for the award. Heck, he had a 3.31 ERA and .925 OPS in his rookie season and he didn’t recieve a single MVP award.
Who’s to say there won’t be another Ohtani? They created a rule basically for him, and there are a couple other two-way players floating around.
mlb1225,
Requiring a player to hit like an MVP *and* pitch like a Cy Young winner is a crazy expectation. Pitchers have won the MVP while never hitting.
Even so, you’re getting what you asked for this season from Ohtani.
His rookie year, Ohtani only hit in 2/3 of the team’s games and made just 10 starts. He’s pitched better (so far) in more innings this season and has hit nearly as well. He has a great case for MVP.
I think Judge will win it because he’s having a tremendous season that’s much better than what he did ever before while Ohtani is “just” doing the same thing as last year. In other words, it’s a better narrative.
@gbs The only exception to that is if Ohtani was easily a top 3 hitter or pitcher in the league. Pitchers have won theVP award before without batting, but you need to adjust for Ohtani doing both. He’s the most valuable player in terms of what he brings to the team. Even if he had like a 110 wRC+ and 110 ERA+, to me he is still more valuable than a pitcher with a 130 era+ or batters with a 130 wRC+.
Probably because he had just 367 PA and 51 IP that year.
With regards to this 2 horse race for AL MVP, everybody here has valid points that I enjoy reading. I’m just throwing this out into the ether, but in regards to “Fantasy Baseball” Shohei has been 63% better in terms of scoring valid points for his team.
(1644 to 1032 total points)
His intrinsic value is far beyond what anyone else is doing, and it’s rather incredible when you break it all down to counting stats, too. All this Ohtani praise being said, I will admit that I believe Judge has surpassed Ohtani in terms of my vote, though. I am factoring in the Yanks playoff berth as the deciding swing of the pendulum. Granted, things can change if Ohtani has an even more amazing final 2 weeks, but at this point I’m going to confidently express that this has become Judge’s award to lose… in my humble opinion, of course.
Most Unusual Player yes, Judge is the MVP, where would the Yankees be without him? Ohtani has Trout, who if he was healthy be the MVP every year.
I still can’t believe the Angels. Trout is probably going to finish top 5 in MVP voting and Ohtani may win the MVP. That would mean that it would be the eleventh straight season they would have at least one player finish top 5 in MVP voting and the first time two teammates finished top 5 in voting since Lindor and Jose Ramirez finished 3rd and 5th and Arenado and Blackmon finished 4th and 5th in 2017 and they’re still not going to make the playoffs.
The Angels are cursed.
They really should just go ahead and make a new award now, the Mike Trout award, and award it to the best player in baseball.
Vlad & Semien were 2-3 just last year
@Starscream I don’t know why I forgot that. Still, the fact of the matter is how often has a team had a player finish at least top 5 in MVP voting for over a decade and have zero playoff wins to show for it? I don’t think that has ever happened before.
Mark seems to be making the same mistake as many fans. The Mets are interviewing for a President of the team. I doubt Cohen would have any interest in Davis Stearns for the President job. He’d want him as the President of Baseball Operations. Two very different positions with different skill sets needed.
My question: when is Yandy Diaz going to use those gosh dang tree trunks for arms and start muscling up on the XBHs?
Diaz seems like one of those guys who is one adjustment away from becoming a really, really good player. His Baseball Savant page is filled with bright red. He has a 49.3% ground ball rate, which doesn’t fully take advantage of his power. Imagine what he could do if he had like a 40% ground ball rate and 40% flyball rate?
That’s what I’m saying! He looks like he’s swinging a toothpick and scalding the ball.
But, if not the Rays, who do you think could help? I hate to say it, but maybe Dodgers?
He has power potential and plate discipline to be a middle of the lineup masher.
He has increased his launch angle and this year is the highest it’s ever been in a single season. Maybe he’s getting there. If you give him a 11-degree launch angle with his hard hit and exit velocity and plate discipline, you could be getting 150+ wRC+ type production.
Maybe he follows the Nelson Cruz “late blooming bopper” blueprint ?(fingers crossed). Because that would be fun to watch.
Had NO idea Judge was closing in (or anywhere close) to the Triple Crown. Wowzers…
Von, if he gets the HR record and somehow pulls off a Triple Crown, then I gotta stand by my 2/3 prediction.
Yea. You’re not wrong. Triple Crown is a big deal.
Thats the only reason I slept easy after Miggy took it from Trout in 2012. It was his to take though I suppose.
No matter who gets it, I’m going to be happy and dissapointed. It’s a tough call.
Can you think of a closer MVP race where two players were both doing something at a historic level?
As a Halo fan I feel you.
Only Miggy VS Trout in 2012. Thats the only close comparison I can think of.
’98 NL MVP race was fun, Slammin’ Sammy vs. Big Mac.
I believe he’s one BA point from leading the league after four hits today, and watching MLBN, he should have had five. Robbed his first time up. If not for that, he would (at least at the moment) be leading in all three Triple Crown categories. Judge is accelerating into the close.
Trying to guess how a collection of BBWAA members will vote is at best pointless, at worst painful! I’ll wait for the vote. What we do know is Judge and Ohtani will finish 1st and 2nd in some order. It often sounds like we’re making a case against a player to try and support another player. I found that a bit distasteful when fans and media members were talking down Miguel Cabrera in his Triple Crown year simply because they wanted the WAR King, Mike Trout, to win. I too thought Trout should be the winner, but I had zero issues with Cabrera getting the award. It seemed…fitting. The irony, though, doesn’t escape me that many Angels fans, who argued for Trout because of WAR, are arguing against Judge, who is leading Ohtani is both bWAR and fWAR (considerably on the latter). That’s how great Judge’s year has been. Even with Ohtani pitching and hitting well, he’s still not out-WARing Judge. He might have a shot with bWAR, but I don’t see him catching Judge in fWAR. Judge might eclipse 12 fWAR.
I saw this somewhere the other day. Beyond leading in both bWAR and fWAR, Judge is leading all of MLB baseball in win probability added (+7.1) and championship probability added (+3.2). Then there’s all the traditional categories he’s leading in: HRs, RBIs, runs, OBP, SLG, OPS+, total bases and extra-base hits. He not only looks set to break the AL HR record, let’s be honest. We know he should be setting the MLB record too. 61 in ’61 has interestingly stood for 61 years and looks set to finally fall. We’ll soon see.
Judge’s lead is 20 HRs over his nearest MLB competitor, and 23 over his nearest AL competitor. That hasn’t happened since Ruth did it in the 1920s. His OPS+ is now about 210. Here’s the list of AL players who have had an OPS+ that high in an uninterrupted season in AL history: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle. Ty Cobb and Lou Gehrig. Not even Trout has joined that group. I’m listing all these stats because someone above said I don’t believe people understand just how good a year Judge is having. I agree. It’s on track to be the second-greatest hitting year any AL player has had since Mickey’s Mantle’s Triple Crown season.
The last item in Judge’s column is he’s doing this in a pennant race. His games all have meaning. As the Yankees faded with injuries, he allowed them to hold on to first place. That will count for something with many writers in the most “valuable” player race if all else is equal or close.
I don’t think it will be Judge getting 2/3rds of the vote. He’ll probably end up with around 90% or more of the vote. That poll was a fan vote, and there’s always a heavy anti-Yankee vote among other fan bases. I hear media members talking about the race, but mostly they all seem to say Judge is the MVP. It’s almost as if they’re trying to create a race, but it’s one they don’t even believe in themselves.
Anyway, there’s still over two weeks to go. Enough perhaps to shift the balance.
Totally agree. My vote would have also gone to Trout in 2012, but Cabrera had an MVP season nonetheless. To me, the most important thing is that Judge has a wRC+ well over 200. That’s something that hasn’t been done since Bonds. Don’t get me wrong, I love Ohtani and he’s also doing something historic. But that 200+ wRC+ I’d game changing to an extrem degree.
Okay, I’ll say it: the Triple Crown is overrated. That’s not saying what Judge is doing isn’t incredibly impressive. If he wins the MVP, it’s for the totality of his accomplishments, not just those three numbers.
To me, a guy isn’t automatically the MVP if they win the Triple Crown. It’s cool, but in a new age where we have much better identifiers of how good a player is, the Triple Crown isn’t as impressive as it was 40-50 years ago. To me, if you were to make a Triple Crown 2.0, it would be leading the league in the Triple slash (AVG/OBP/SLG), which is what Paul Goldschmidt is currently doing.
But in Judge’s case when he leads the league in home runs by a margin of over 20, its really hard to make a case for anyone else. Had Ohtani had an extremely good year at the plate and a decent but not CYA potential season, then Judge would have this MVP in the bag.
Ohtani has my mvp vote, but I wouldn’t be upset no matter who wins it
Another question: Miggy just needs to finish
in the top ten for MVP votes in 2023 to have his option guaranteed.
One 1st place vote could potentially put him in the top 10. One writer could argue his final season coupled with his history in Detroit makes him more valuable than others regardless of results. Then that guarantees his $30million option in 2024, and that reporter gets a nice chunk of change for the posterity.
It’s not really a question. But, it’s possible.
I understand what your saying beans but if miggy gets a single 1st place vote that would be ridiculous.
If somehow Miggy got a first place vote because he essentially paid off the writer so he could get his $30 million, the writer would probably lose his ability to vote and his membership with the BBWA and it would be a tarnish on Cabrera’s otherwise spotless career, in terms of on-field and off-field actions. He’d probably lose a ton of respect from fans, and Cabrera doesn’t strike me as a guy who doesn’t care about the fans at all and is only in it for the all-mighty dollar.
Yeah, this isn’t serious. Just a “what if”. Maybe he has a surprisingly good year
I mean heck, look at Pujols. Used in the right way, maybe he goes on a vintage Miggy run. Could you imagine if one rouge voter just decided to give him a first place vote and indirectly mess up the Tigers’ payroll?
@mlb1225 that’s what I kind of meant. Like Miggy gets a full 600 ABs and gets a lot of counting stats on his way out. Like 35 hr and 100rbi out of nowhere, but he has like a .750 or below OPS.
You know a writer might look at those counting stats and say “why not?”. And they could 100% justify themselves.
Edit; okay 35 hr is too many but 25 and getting the rbis just because of the batting order? It’s not a 0% possibility.
Unfortunatley The Tigers’ line-up probably isn’t good enough to give Miggy enough chances to score 100 RBI’s, even if he batted .400 with men on base. They have what, two batters this year with an OBP over .310? Also, depending on how they use him, he might not have enough chances in general. But it would be fun if he had a good season in a platoon 1B/DH role like Pujols is in this year and he just smacks.
Rob, solid post.
Thanks, but I’m also pretty sure I just set a record length wise for one of my posts!
You did but it was thoughtful and substantive and that’s what counts. I agreed with 80-90% of it.
His comment about young players coming into competitive teams with expectations rings true imo. So many guys come up to tanking teams and struggle while the cardinals, rays, dodgers seem to be able to rinse and repeat year after year with fresh, producing, players
I really don’t think Bellinger is non-tendered. Dodgers have the money to try one more year, especially with the shift rules coming in 2023.
There going to probably win 110+ games with Bellinger being subpar at the plate. They can easily roll the dice on another year to get him back to pre-2021 levels.
I am starting to think the same thing. Have a feeling he isn’t going anywhere quite yet.
If Bellinger is non-tendered the Cubs should jump all over him. He is exactly the short term answer the Cubs need in CF.
Ohtani, according to WAR, despite pitching and hitting, hasn’t been as valuable as Judge. End of argument. Judge is the MVP.
If Bellinger IS non-tendered, anyone have a guess on what kind of deal he may get?
Probably somewhere under $10 million for one year from a fringe contender (COL, TEX, KC, MIN, all are some ideas that come to mind).
I was thinking 1 year under 10 mil as well, but had no idea as far as who might wanna snatch him up. Do you think the Dodgers “possibly” keep him?
DarkSide, I was thinking the same (1 year under 10mil). Had no idea what team might want to grab him though…Do you think LA holds on to him “possibly?”
P.S. I replied to your comment a few mins ago with basically the exact same wording, though for some reason, it didn’t pass moderation…Pretty annoying. Anyone else have that problem?
It didn’t like 1 very innocuous word I used. I said ” Who do you think will $natch up Bellinger?”
You can surmise which word was deemed ungodly.