Dodgers star hurler Walker Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery and a repair to his flexor tendon this afternoon, according to announcements from the team and Buehler himself (h/t to Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). The club had already announced that Buehler would undergo an elbow procedure that would end his 2022 season, although it hadn’t been clear whether he’d require a complete UCL reconstruction.
While the team has not yet provided a specific timetable on Buehler’s recovery, the revelation comes as a brutal blow. A Tommy John procedure will obviously cost him far more than the remainder of this season. It’s now hard to envision him returning at any point in 2023. Tommy John recoveries often take upwards of 14 months, and Buehler’s rehab process only figures to take longer considering his personal history.
The righty also underwent Tommy John not long after being selected in the first round of the 2015 draft. He lost the remainder of that season and virtually all of the following year recovering, making just three brief appearances late during his first full pro campaign. He’ll now be faced with a second extended rehab process.
In between the surgeries, Buehler has established himself as one of the sport’s best arms. The Vanderbilt product has a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 MLB innings, striking out a quality 27% of batters faced against a meager 6.3% walk percentage. He posted an ERA of 3.44 or lower each season between 2018-21, earning a pair of All-Star nods in the process. Buehler picked up a fourth place finish in NL Cy Young balloting last year — his highest finish to date — after eclipsing 200 innings with a sparkling 2.47 ERA.
The 2022 season hadn’t been Buehler’s best, as he saw his strikeout rate fall to a personal-worst 21.2% rate through 12 starts. Not coincidentally, he allowed more than four earned runs per nine innings for the first time in his big league career, with opponents bizarrely teeing off on a fastball that had previously been one of his better offerings. Buehler’s velocity remained strong, with his fastball checking in at its customary 95 MPH range, and any efforts to get the pitch’s spin and overall effectiveness back on track were put aside when he left an early June outing with elbow discomfort. That was quickly revealed to be a flexor strain, and the team announced last week that he’d need to undergo surgery after rehab efforts proved unsuccessful.
Relative down year notwithstanding, Buehler would certainly have had a key role on next year’s staff had he been healthy. Now that he’s seemingly unlikely to factor into the mix at any point, the Dodgers figure to aggressively target rotation help during the upcoming offseason. Clayton Kershaw will be a free agent after signing a one-year deal last winter. The club would no doubt welcome him back if Kershaw wants to return, but it remains to be seen how the future Hall of Famer will choose to proceed. The Dodgers will also see free agent pickups Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson return to the open market.
Julio Urías is one of the sport’s top pitchers, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible for a final time next year. The Dodgers recently welcomed back flamethrowing Dustin May from a Tommy John rehab of his own, while Tony Gonsolin has carried over his smaller-sample excellence through a career-high 22 starts this season. That’s three rotation spots accounted for, and young hurlers like Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller could be ready for key roles relatively early in the year. There are still plenty of in-house options, but the Dodgers have aggressively stockpiled pitching depth in recent offseasons. Between efforts to re-sign one or more of Kershaw, Anderson and Heaney plus pursuits of external free agents, the Dodgers are likely to be active in adding to their strong collection of young in-house arms.
Buehler will remain on the 60-day injured list during the seasons, although he’ll need to occupy a spot on the 40-man roster over the winter. He’ll finish this season with more than four years of service time and be in line for a salary boost relative to this season’s $4.25MM figure via arbitration. Buehler is arb-eligible twice more, so the Dodgers are likely to tender him a contract and pay next year’s salary with an eye towards getting him back on the mound for the 2024 campaign.
Won’t see him back until 2024 (very small chance at the end of next year for a game or two)
2024 is his last year under team control.
The Dodgers don’t have to care about team control. But since this is his 2nd TJ, there might not be a reason to worry about that anyway. There is no guarantee he will even get tendered this off season. It’s likely, but not guaranteed.
You know what they say about guarantees. If you want one, buy a toaster.
I wonder if he started throwing curves at a young age. No kid should throw any kind of curve or slider until at least 16. They should focus on control and changing speed. If they want to get cute, throw a knuckles.
Dodgers absolutely care about team control, every team does at a paramount level
Saying that, I’ve long been for keeping the money in the coffers for Walker and Julio over a potential Trea contract. (Not saying all 3 can’t happen but IF it was one or the other)
Now, it’s a tough call for me. Interested to see the direction they take w Trea in the winter…..Still think Id rather scalp Jose Iglesias from your Rocks and call it a day
*And 0% he is Non-tendered
Is there actual medical science to back that up or is it just something you overheard one of the dads at a little league game say?
@Cosmo2 It’s a growing theory, not proven by anything (as far as I know)
Growing? I heard that theory in the 1970’s. Not seeing any growth.
Thanks Dr Ziffel
Ouch. Big blow.
Good news for NL: the Dodgers lost a good pitcher
Bad news: They will now buy or trade for a high-end starter.
I predict the Padres take over the West next season.
padres aint takin over squat, ever.
I predict the Dodgers will be just fine and win the NL West again in 2023. Losing Buehler is a blow, but the Dodgers have Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, and Landon Knack in the minors, along with a couple of others, and will also go and get some outside help if needed. I wish Buehler a full and speedy recovery.
Trevor Bauer l can win his appeal lolz jk
I mean Dodger fans have been spoiled for years, so it is not surprising they think their team in invincible or due to regression. Luckily for the other teams, baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports. For all we know, the Rockies will turn into a mega team next season (calm down, it is possible). The Dodgers have too many things going their way this season, especially from the rotation front. Their core has already peaked and are either in regression (Bellinger, Muncy, Turner) or heading towards it.
You make a valid point about Dodger fans being spoiled.
This ownership group has been immensely successful. Since they took over, the Dodgers have 878 wins. The next closest is NYY at 821, then StL 803, Clev, 799, Boston 787, and Houston 784. And that was before this season.
While maintaining the best winning percentage in all of baseball, they’ve also maintained a a ripe minor league (tree) that continues to bear fruit. I believe the latest rankings have them 2nd overall.
But, we had to endure McCourt and Murdoch before that. lol
I find it interesting that you believe that Trea Turner is regressing
Justin
Haha keep dreaming
Go smoke some more of whatever you we’re smokin. Dodgers are DEEP in the farm system AND in their pocket books. They’ll be just fine
In case you haven’t been paying attention, the Dodgers are on a record pace for wins this year………without Buehler.
Sorry, haters. I know you’re hoping this news of an injury to a player would damage the teams future.
I think it does. Just because the Dodgers are good and have succeeded without him, doesn’t mean his loss won’t hurt them.
Yeah that 18 game gap is because Buehler had an ERA over 4. Without him, LA is screwed
The Padres are a punchline they’re not taking anything over.
The Padres had a lot of bad luck the last few years. The Mets were in the same category last few years. Now everything is going the Mets way. At some point, things will turn around for the Padres as well. As stated before, no one team in invincible no matter how full their wallets are.
Everything is going the Mets way because their payroll is 260M instead of ~150M… it isn’t luck
If payrolls are so important, then what do you call the current Yankee drought? They overachieved in the first half and now in regression despite the big trades and their payroll. It is called baseball. The Dodgers are the best NL team objectively this season, but when I consider what they might lose next season + inevitable regression from their starters, the West might change next season.
What do I see with the Yankees? A team with the 2nd best record in the AL who’s pitching and offense have taken multiple injury hits, simultaneously… yet they still have the 2nd best record in the AL? And the third best record is a division rival who is STILL 8 games back?
The Dodgers had a very similar swoon last year and “only” won 106 games instead of the 120+ they were on pace for the majority of the year… Welcome to baseball. Spoiler, money helps. but it doesn’t mean your team is immune to injuries.
Then add in LA has the 2nd best farm in baseball per MLB.com… as of, today…. while the Padre’s farm is now ranked 28th. And there is no reason to think LA will not re-sign or replace Trea Turner or any other FA.
Just be honest, you’re praying out loud that SD overtakes LA
Haha, I have zero money invested on the Padres. They quickly became a team easy to root against with all the buying and trades for the “top players” on the market. But yes, I’m rooting against both teams because no one wants to see rich teams buy championships.
With that being said, the Padres are going all out. There is no way they will sit this off season not continuing to improve the club. Of course, I expect the Dodgers to do the same, but the level of talent between the clubs has evened out significantly.
Again man. LA is 17.5 games up, won 106 last year and the title the year before, with LA’s farm ranked 2nd in the game and SD’s… 28th.
At this point, there is no more magical SD farm. It’s been decimated by a team… 17.5 games out of first
What happened this year has zero bearing on next season. Different players, different mood, different everything. The Dodgers may still win the division next season; however, as I said, the Dodgers have peaked. Unless they have a massive off season again, I believe we will see a different champion next season. I don’t believe in their current rotation construction. We will see. Again, I’m not surprised Dodger fans are coming in droves defending their team. It happens with all fanbases. Regardless, go Rockies or D-Backs!
They are on pace to set the franchise record for wins.. for the 3rd year in a row. And again, 2nd best farm in MLB, in rankings released today.
But sure, they’ve peaked. Because you say so
When was the last time the dodgers were counting on a guy coming back from TJ to be the 4 and a rookie to be the 5? I know it wasn’t during this ownership. Of course they will add pitching, trade or FA
“but the level of talent between the clubs has evened out significantly.”
I feel like we’ve been hearing this for a few years now.
They very well may peak this year…as you mention they’re on pace to set a record, it wouldn’t be shocking if they aren’t able to replicate that again, winning as many games as they have/will is hard, even if you’re really good.
Bro this is baseball, not basketball. You show how casual a fan you are when you say things like this
That’s hilarious considering they’re 17 games up on the Padres and haven’t had Walker most of the year
Time to throw a bag at Degrom lol
Wow, another young arm out until 2024. What a bummer for baseball and it’s fans
The world will keep turning. Shame for Buehler and Dodgers fans, but there are 29 other teams with fans who would prioritize their own clubs succeeding.
Maybe if your team is in the playoffs. Fans of non contenders want to see the best players on the field in the playoffs
Surgeries right and left. Good luck to Buehler on his recovery. I hate to see the good players out of commission even if they’re not on my team.
When will badeball realize that babying pitchers with pitch counts and innings limits doesn’t help preserve a pitchers arm – instead, things have been far worse under those parameters.
I get what you’re saying, but Buehler really hasn’t been ‘babied’. He pitched 137.2 innings in his rookie season, then followed that up with 30 starts and 182 innings in 2019. Last year, he started 33 games and pitched over 200 innings.
Note that those innings in his rookie season came after April 27th. He was called up late and had a minor injury as well.
it was actually 153 innings in his rookie season, since 16 of them came in AAA before being called up.
but regardless, your point is correct.
Throwing breaking balls too young and expecting all pitchers to throw 95+ will continue to lead to injuries. The human body can only take so much.
So basically as long as pitchers pitch, pitchers will sometimes get injured.
Not sure how he was babied. If anything they rode Buehler too hard in 2021 and possibly helped lead to this injury.. He threw 207 innings last year not including the playoffs where they made him throw in relief between starts..
What’d he gain, 8 mph on the fastball since college?
And May’s up to 10 now since throwin his 89 puss at some slapdick HS?
Gonsolin like 7?
Anderson, Heaney, Phillips, Almonte all rat dung for 8 years and now All-Star Caliber?
Sweet. Carry on. Nothin to see here
Nothing to see here except a dumb conspiracy.
Have you considered learning to write in English? So we can understand what you are trying to say?
Gonsolin lowered Velo actually he used to throw like 97
Are you just learning that velocity can be taught/gained with proper training?
Mind blowing, huh? The rest of the game has known this for over a decade, but welcome
Please leave Heaney out of this conversation he’s pitched 35 innings all season and been hurt the rest. Don’t worry if he’s actually able to stay healthy he’ll suck.
And yet he’s already eclipsed last season’s fWAR lmaooo
Yep sounds like the Dodgers really know how to develop and train pitchers.
That sucks for them. They get May back from his own TJ procedure, then lose Buehler imediatley after. Extremely poor timing.
Bauer will be back next year when his suspension is reduced to one year.
They don’t want anything to do with Bauer.
Nobody will.
Somebody will.
After he gets through suing everybody in sight? No chance.
Fair or not, Bauer is damaged goods.
Completely fair. He knew the rules, or at least he should have, but he is one of those people who believe rules are for other people. As far as anyone can tell, he still does. If that wasn’t the case he’d have done what every other player who’s been suspended for violating the rules has: admit to making a mistake, serve your time, and maybe get your career back.
Yeah…the guy that called the league out for not enforcing substances, then went out and showed them how much it helps pitchers, thinks rules are for other people.
Ironic, isn’t it?
Now that May is back, this is basically a pitcher’s UCL for a pitcher’s UCL. Sucks that Buehler is out til 2024, I like him
This sucks for baseball. Kid is a stud.
Wonder what percentage of ML starters that throw split finger pitches wind up having surgery?
You know Walker does not throw a split, right?
Too bad! Buehler is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Not a Dodgers fan but have always admired his ability and poise. Hope his recovery goes well.
Agreed. He’s absolutely great when he’s on.
It’s nice to see a classy post once in awhile. Thank you.
They’ll be fine. They’ll bring up somebody from the farm who will pitch a 2.5 or less Era just like they always do.
Although I’d hate to see him in blue…..
May we please have May, Lux and one of Pages or Miller for Ohtani and a warm body?
Hard to not see Ohtani ending up in Dodger blue. Whether or not that happens through FA or by trade, it seems like the logical landing spot. Between the marketing possibilities, familiarity with the area, and the fact that the Dodgers are always playing in October, it almost seems inevitable.
Logical, maybe, but I still question whether Ohtani ends up with the Dodgers. I don’t think he made a very positive impression on the team execs when he toured the teams during his posting period.
The impression he’s made on the baseball field, outweighs anything that happened on those tours. I promise you that.
Promise me more! I like promises!
The point is, the Dodgers expressed an interest in him, but the player seemed to make it pretty clear he wasn’t interested in them. Was it just a misunderstanding that could be cleared up? Has he changed his mind about the Dodgers? Maybe, but the Dodgers tend to hire players who actually want to play for them, so it would have to be.
His issue was he only wants to pitch and DH the rest of the time. He doesn’t want to play any other positions. Now that there is the universal DH, he will sign with the Dodgers — as he would have then if the rule had already been changed.
He also wanted to play on the same team with his idol, Mike Trout, so no reason to believe he would have signed with the Dodgers if the rule was different.
Second TJS carries higher risk but still a high success rate. He’s only 28, so a third one could be down the line. On average, they last about eight years.
No real/legitimate World Series title for the Los Angeles baseball team since 1988.
Yawn. This is a tired statement right here. You do know that every team had the same playing field right? Same schedule….same empty stadiums. You know you would be singing a different tune if your squad won it.
I’m surprised you wasted that many sentences on a response.
And? What if every team played a 5 game season and 4 teams made the playoffs? You’d still consider it a title then?
Watch this video and tell me that the players — the only people who’s opinion matters — thought anything other than it was legitimate and they wanted to win it. I’ll wait for you…
youtube.com/watch?v=NZIN_W3Eytg
It doesn’t matter what the players thought lmao. How dense of an argument is that
Your argument is “what if it was even more different”
You don’t have much ground to critique anyone
Who cares what the low IQ idiot baseball players think.
But they didn’t have the same playing field as every other team that EARNED the title of World Series champions. They didn’t have to play road games in the playoffs. They didn’t play 100+ games where any number of injuries may have occurred. It was a joke that that :season: even happened.
They also didn’t play any home games, had to win more games than any other team ever has, and weren’t afforded a full regular season — which can be a bad thing or a good thing. It would have been a bad thing for the Braves last year, but since there was a full season, the Braves ended up being the hot team at the right time.
Honestly, I’m done…I don’t know why I try to have discussions here with some of you…like banging my head against a wall.
Knowing what banging your head against a wall feels like would explain a lot about you, have a nice night.
You sound like another butt hurt loser lol
shoot, 1988 isn’t clean either.
ffs, mlb’s own youtube page has video of jay howell getting caught cheating during the nlcs.
but let’s not kid ourselves, the year they won, at least 3 of the playoff teams were dirty (only canseco and doc will admit it, though. daryl, big mac, etc.. “aren’t here to talk about the past”).
Tommy John Surgery is all the rage. Like getting all tatted up and dying the hair blonde!
2023 rotarion will be Urias/Gonsolin/May, probably Kershaw, and either Pepiot or whomever they sign off the scrap heap and turn into an ace for one year
I’d be pretty surprised if they do not augment that group. LA is successful because they yearly have 7-9 quality starting options. Not rookies in the 5 slot and a guy in his first year removed from TJ as the 4
Walker Buehler’s Year Off
I believe that statistically the type of pitcher most likely to have Tommy John Surgery are pitchers who already have had Tommy John Surgery.
Not really surprising that it’s Tommy John. And there’s no concern from me, a Dodger fan, concerning his 2022 numbers. Buehler clearly had an issue, his velocity was down quite a bit as the season progressed, and it mostly lined up with his numbers getting worse. Something was clearly up with his arm.
The Dodgers reported “best case scenario” results for Buehler’s surgery. He’ll still probably miss all of next season, but his chances of coming back just got a little brighter.