Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left forearm this week, manager A.J. Hinch announced to reporters (Twitter link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Skubal was already known to be out for the remainder of the 2022 season after being shifted to the 60-day injured list last week, but a surgery of this nature is significant and calls into question his readiness for the 2023 campaign. The Tigers have not provided a timetable for his recovery.
It’s a rather alarming escalation of events regarding Skubal, who just three weeks ago was at least a long-shot trade candidate in the midst of a breakout season. He exited an Aug. 1 start against the Twins after five excellent innings — three hits, no runs, no walks, four strikeouts — due to what the team termed as arm fatigue. At the time of his removal, Skubal downplayed the injury and voiced confidence that he could make his next start. As such, the subsequent trip to the 15-day injured list was viewed as something of a precautionary measure at the time.
Concern began to mount, however, when the Tigers abruptly shifted him to the 60-day injured list on Aug. 12. Hinch told reporters that day that Skubal was meeting with renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache to get an additional opinion on his elbow and forearm. The Tigers definitively shut him down for the season at that point.
Flexor tendon surgery doesn’t necessarily come with as lengthy of a recovery period as the typical 12 to 14 months for Tommy John surgery, but it’s hardly a short-term outlook in most cases. Every procedure and recovery process is different, but it’s worth noting that a pair of high-profile lefties — Danny Duffy and Skubal’s former teammate, Matthew Boyd — underwent similar procedures last year and have not yet made it back to the mound. Boyd (September surgery) and Duffy (October) were both targeting June returns but have since encountered setbacks that have impeded their progress.
Again, there are plenty of instances of pitchers returning from this injury more promptly, and the Tigers haven’t provided specifics on Skubal’s surgery. There’s no sense in attempting to speculate on a specific return date with incomplete information. That said, we’re about six months out from the start of 2023 Spring Training already, so simply looking to other flexor surgeries in recent years, it’s fair to wonder whether Skubal’s availability early in 2023 might be impacted.
It’s another blow to what’s been an astonishingly snakebitten Tigers pitching staff in 2022. For the past several years, the tantalizing trio of Skubal, Casey Mize and Matt Manning — all of them former top-100 prospects — was heralded as the foundation of Detroit’s pitching staff for years to come. Instead, that trio has been beset by injuries, two of which have now resulted in major surgeries. Skubal will face a months-long recovery from his flexor procedure. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Manning hasn’t gone under the knife but has dealt with a notable shoulder injury this year and a forearm strain of his own back in 2020. At the very least, Manning is healthy at the moment; he came off the injured list earlier this month and has made three solid appearances — though those are just his third, fourth and fifth starts of the season.
Detroit’s struggles extend well beyond injuries to that promising group of arms, however. Top outfield prospect Riley Greene missed the first two-plus months of the season with a broken foot and has been overmatched by MLB pitching since returning (.228/.287/.330 in 244 plate appearances). Both Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson were ranked among the game’s top five overall prospects heading into the season, but Torkelson endured similar struggles (.197/.282/.295) before being optioned to Triple-A earlier in the summer.
The Tigers have also had notable injuries to expected contributors (Austin Meadows, Michael Pineda), seen established 2021 contributors regress (Jeimer Candelario, Akil Baddoo) and received nowhere near the help they expected from their top two free-agent signings. Javier Baez is hitting just .227/.269/.378 on the year, while lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched just 39 innings due to injury and to time spent away from the team while dealing with a reported marital issue. Rodriguez is expected to return this weekend (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com), but the team’s season has clearly already gone off the rails.
Any of these woes, in isolation, would perhaps be manageable for a team to overcome. Taken in totality, however, there’s no reasonable way to expect a team to withstand that type of strain on the roster. The dam finally burst last week when the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila.
The Tigers will have a new general manager within the coming months, but it’s not yet clear just how said executive and how owner Chris Ilitch envision fixing the mess that has been the 2022 season. That much was true even before the Tigers learned that their top young starter required surgery to repair a flexor tendon. Skubal made 21 starts this season and pitched to a solid 3.52 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a quality 45.7% grounder rate.
Prior to his injury, Skubal’s development was one of the very few bright spots in an otherwise calamitous Tigers season, but he’ll now add to the daunting sense of uncertainty that permeates the roster. The Tigers control Skubal and Mize through the 2026 season. Manning is controllable through 2027. Torkelson and Greene can be controlled through at least 2028.
DarkSide830
Weird flex but okay.
ou812jay8
Seems like Skubal, Mize, and Manning are the Tigers version of Wilson, Pulsipher, and Isringhausen.
Rsox
In a sense, but the hype surrounding the Mets three was insane. I remember in 1996 when everyone was chasing Paul Wilson rookie cards, good times…
GarryHarris
Generation K
GarryHarris
Most made it:
Spencer Turnbull
Beau Burroughs
Matt Manning
Casey Mize
Tarik Skubal
Alex Faedo
Joey Wentz
Tyler Alexander
Paul Richan
Joe Jimenez
Kyle Funkhouser
Eduardo Jimenez
Drew Carlton
Gregory Soto
Will Vest
Bryan Garcia
Logan Shore
Alex Lange
Airo13
At least it isn’t Tommy John #2
braves95 2
That sucks. Well at least by 2024 they will have 2 studs in Mize and Skubal fully healthy at the top of the rotation.
myaccount2
Maybe fully healthy, maybe studs, maybe at the top of Detroit’s rotation. I wouldn’t bank on these guys at all.
Hello, Newman
Maybe injured, maybe bust, maybe dfa’d. I’m still not banking on your cynical input.
myaccount2
Lol great, thanks for yours though.
Hello, Newman
Lol you’re welcome
apeavy
As Mets fan, I understand the frustration of the Tigers fanbase. Rebuilding a team around young pitching is always a risky proposition. We went through it in 2015 (Harvey, DeGrom, Thor, Matz, Wheeler) and in the 90’s with Generation K (Paul Wilson, Jason Isringhausen, Bill Pulsipher)
basedonamadeupstory
The surprise developments of Briske (also out) and Hill lessens the blow of this, as does the return of Erod, but man, enough is enough. At least Turnbull should be ready for 2023 though.
Citizen1
Took 8 time read on the headline.
Skull fracture?
stymeedone
Faedo was looking good when he was healthy. This definitely makes it difficult to plan for next year. Will they need pitching? A rotation of Erod, Turnbull, Manning, Faedo, and Brieske or Hill would be fine if you could rely on them being healthy. Plus Wendt should be ready, and Skubal available at some point. But after this snake bit year, is that enougb?
BSHH
That is a good question – the answer will depend on how soon the new GM wants to compete. Although signing a good veteran starter would take away funds from the more important task: to vastly improve the offense.
All these injuries have shown that the Tigers have at least pitching depth. A rotation of Turnbull, Ed. Rodriguez, Manning, Brieske, Faedo with depth options like Hill, Wentz, R. Garcia or Alexander plus Skubal returning later could be solid to above-average. I would like to see the Tigers give their young pitchers the chance.
Gruß
BSHH
Animalize
Chris Ilitch must hold the patents on all advanced arm and shoulder surgeries.
miggywrld
From the voices of Mize, Turnbull, Faedo, Brieske, Funkhouser, and Garcia from injured Tigers pitcher land, “Join us Tarik”.
Champs64
Perhaps the Baez signing and his results this season were a key reason for the firing of AL Avila. But the frustration with all of the Tiger injuries is justified. A team cannot have enough depth to overcome this many injuries.
Rsox
I don’t think we have ever seen a team have all of their best pitching prospects injured at exactly the same time. This is beyond even Mets/Angels levels of bad luck
Jm207* 2
Time for another rebuild…
tigerdoc616
I suspect the Tigers will be careful with Skubal. Even then, without setbacks he should be ready to pitch by the 2nd half of 2023.
notagain27
Detroit front office needs to stop panicking and rushing their prospects to the major leagues before they have fully developed. They also need to vastly improve their bullpen.
stymeedone
Other than Soto being frustrating with his walks, the Tigers have one of the best bullpens in the league! Foley, Vest and especially Lange have been outstanding. Soto is unhitable when hes on. Chafin has had a great season. Fulmer, and now Jimenez have done well in the setup role. I would love to see Soto moved back to set up, and a vet closer added, but need money for the offense first.
SportsFan0000
Tigers have a surprisingly good bullpen even after the trade deadline deal.
For Love of the Game
People who don’t follow the Tigers regularly don’t realize the full extent of the problem. Not only have all of their top five starters gone down with injuries, so have the next five. Right now the rotation consists of the original #4 starter (Manning), #6 (Tyler Alexander) – both of whom missed significant time on the IL – and three others not even in their top 10 starters at the beginning of the season. This has to be unprecedented.
JoeBrady
That’s what I try to convey to RS fans. Nothing much changes if you replace #5 with #6. Then you replace #4 with #7. When you get to the point where you replace #1 with #9, you’re basically doomed. The Tiger opening day rotation pitched okay, just not a whole lot.
Red Wings
But the pitching has been OK considering, it’s the awful hitting that doomed this team. The entire infield has been under .200 most of the year and little pop. Historically bad, and when it’s that many a coach has to be replaced.
BSHH
The Tigers had indeed a horrible string of luck with their rotation. Just take a look at what has already happened:
Mize – 60d IL
Ed. Rodriguez – 15d IL, afterwards restricted list.
Skubal – 60d IL
Manning – 60d IL
Pineda – 15d IL twice
Alexander – 15d IL
Brieske – 60d IL
Faedo – 60d IL
R. Garcia – 15d IL twice
Wentz – minor league IL after an MLB start
Gruß,
BSHH
SportsFan0000
Avila did build pitching depth in the minors.
Many “no name” prospects have stepped up and pitched like major league starters.
Get everyone healthy, and Detroit will have depth and plenty of trade bait for bats.
And, the long awaited bats are also on the way from the minors.
Two years after Avila’s tenure is over, the Tigers will be loaded with young draftees
from the pitching staff to position players and many of those players will be
draft picks and acquisitions from Al Avila’s tenure with the team.
Change was needed in Detroit, but fans, ownership, etc…can be impatient if anything goes wrong with their rebuilds…
mrfolgers
Sell the team, pizza man!!
Hello, Newman
No way, too much money to be made when your losing.
weaselpuppy
Oh, and every single hitter has lost their minds and forgotten how to hit. Star rookies, Top shelf FAs getting 9 figures, solid young guys w track records, dependable vets, 2nd yr guys after a breakout rookie season in 21 and then Miggy. Literally every last thing has gone wrong at every single position.
Never seen anything like this, ever, in 50 years by any team
JoeBrady
They might want to look at the coaching. They have the 4th (out of 30) highest amount of strikeouts, and 29th in most walks taken. Their K/W ratio is last by a fairly high margin. Detroit also has the 4th highest GB/FB ratio, another negative.
joefriday1948
Most fans in Detroit have no idea how poor the seats are for non box seats. One of the biggest but highly unrecognized issues. is the seating at Comerica. Outside of box seats, it offers most seats further away from the action than any other major league park. To improve, the Tigers need to add rows of new seats currently where the field of play is. Fences will need to be brought in. Two or more rows are needed in front of the current seats between First and Third.
stymeedone
Not happening. Not as long as they don’t fill the seats they have.
SportsFan0000
So turn it into the Midwest version of the Oakland mausoleum (like when the Raiders shared the stadium with the A’s)?!
That will never fly or walk..
TroyVan
I just have to believe that so many starters going down to serious injury is more than just an unfortunate coincidence. Its time to look into the program that they are using because the chances of this happening to ALL of the starters by coincidence has to be a million to one.
BmoreBallistics
The al central while competitive this year is in general the weakest division in the AL. Det needs to get healthy, retool, bring in a new hitting coach. They can turn into a 6th wc spot next year. Of course not as simple as I put it. But their is a pathway and possible.
TroyVan
Nope. Thanks for the optimism, but it won’t happen. There is a plethora of pitching talent. But, not one solid position player…. anywhere. Closest thing we got is Kerry Carpenter, and he’s barely 10 games into his MLB career, and he’s gonna be more of a DH.
Worst of all, the hitting instruction is deficient at all levels. So, an overhaul is neccesary to maybe start producing some hitters in the minors.
BmoreBallistics
Lol oh what a take.
SportsFan0000
The Tigers have a wealth of minor league talent on the farm and on the way.
It was not ready to save Avila’s job.
But, it will get to Detroit in ’23, ’24 and ’25.
And with few more top 10 drafts,
the Tigers could open a new window of contention
in ’23 or ’24.
mlb.com/prospects/tigers
TroyVan
They only have pitchers. The wisest thing they could do is to find trading partners for their pitching talent that happen to have excess and controllable position player/s. Even up type of deals.
SportsFan0000
…
SportsFan0000
Tigers were close to contention in 2021.
Mistakes made by Avila in building 2022 Tigers Roster:
Jonathan Schoop signing
Randy Grossman signing
Michael Pineda signing
Tucker Barnhardt trade
Javier Baez signing
Not trading 3B Candelario
Trading Isaac Peredes (should be playing 3rd base for the Tigers)
Not trading Skubal for hitters in April, May or June
Signing the wrong rental free agents etc…
The pitching staff injuries were unprecedented bad luck…..
GarryHarris
I agree with you on some points. I don’t think the Tigers should’ve been acquiring veterans and putting players on the field who were not part of the future while they were developing their own players.
I’m long past Al Avila’s poor acquisitions but the failure was compounded by not giving his prospects enough of a chance.
I always said 2024 was the target after Miguel Cabrera is gone. He can’t be the feature hitter. It’s like a gold necklace holding a raisin locket.
knolln
My labrum was shredded and if you asked me how I was at some time other than mid-pitch-max-extension I was fine….I am not sure why there’s any surprise at pitchers normal response. Have yet to hear anyone say ‘ya I blew out everything, it’s really just dangling there at this point’