Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.
Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.
Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.
Orioles
- Jordan Lyles, SP ($11MM option, $1MM buyout)
Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.
Red Sox
- James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)
Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).
- Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)
Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.
It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.
Yankees
- Luis Severino, SP ($15MM option, $2.75MM buyout)
Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.
Rays
- Kevin Kiermaier, CF ($13MM option, $2.5MM buyout)
Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.
Blue Jays
- Anthony Bass, RP ($3MM option, $1MM buyout)
The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.
White Sox
- Tim Anderson, SS ($12.5MM option, $1MM buyout)
This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.
- Josh Harrison, 2B ($5.5MM option, $1.5MM buyout)
Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.
Guardians
- Bryan Shaw, RP ($4MM option, $500K buyout)
Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.
Twins
- Miguel Sanó, 1B ($14MM option, $3MM buyout)
Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.
- Sonny Gray, SP ($13.1MM option, no buyout)
Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.
- Dylan Bundy, SP ($11MM option, $1MM buyout)
The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.
Astros
- Will Smith, RP ($13MM option, $1MM buyout)
Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.
Athletics
- Stephen Piscotty, RF ($15MM option, $1MM buyout)
Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.
Mariners
- Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)
Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.
Rangers
- Garrett Richards, RP ($9MM option, $1MM buyout)
Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.
- José Leclerc, RP ($6MM option, $750K buyout)
Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.
- Kole Calhoun, RF ($5.5MM option, no buyout)
The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.
Severino could’ve very well have won multiple Cy Young awards if he wasn’t always injured. We’ll probably never see the ace version of Severino again. Sad, had a truly promising career but derailed by injuries. He was a solid #2 and will most likely now be a bullpen piece
I can see the Yankees buying out Severino’s option and renegotiating a new contract or maybe just letting him walk.
They’re going to let him walk. He’s not worth the financial risk due to being injury-prone
Slim chance they decline Sevy’s option. The injury risk is an issue but the upside is too high to pass on. They’re going to be over the luxury tax regardless so there’s no point in trying to save some money here
I’d be surprised if they picked up his 15MM team option because that salary seems greater than what he’s worth. For someone who only pitched a handful of innings after signing a 4-year deal. He’s also just landed on the 60-day DL
I get what you’re saying but you’re using a small market mentality when we’re talking about the Yankees. They signed Corey Kluber for $15MM last year despite his injury issues and that was while they were up against the luxury tax. They’ve already traded away Monty and will likely let Taillon walk so they’ll need other SPs to go behind Cole, Montas, and Nestor. I can’t see them giving up on Sevy now
I can definitely see the Yankees picking up his option for next season, and possibly trading him, their definitely not letting Sevvy just walk away for nothing. That would be a horrible baseball decision. Smh.
I agree with you 100%, but I definitely think the Yankees will also extend a qualifying offer to Taillon, it doesn’t make sense not to. I could see Gleyber, Hicks and a prospect being traded for Pablo López and Joey Wendle. I also think the Yankees have interest in Trea Turner. Who wouldn’t? I just don’t see them paying him over $30 million a year. They gotta pay Judge, so Turner is likely going somewhere else.
If they give Taillon the QO he’s going to take it and I don’t think they want him back next year. A Lopez trade is possible but I doubt the Marlins would take on Hicks and getting Wendle too seems unlikely. Any interest in Turner would just be checking in. If they didn’t spend big on a SS last year, they probably won’t now
Jordan Lyles has got to be one of the only baseball players in history to make over $30 million for his career while being worth less than replacement level. If anyone can think of someone else with numbers like Lyles then I’d love to know. This could also be someone who made a lot of money once adjusted for inflation if they played a long time ago.
You can add Evan White to the list when his contract expires
and Scott Kingery
Darren Dreifort had 1 season above 104 era plus.
60 million
homer Bailey= lifetime era plus of 90
= 98 million lol
At least with Homer Bailey the ace stuff was there and everyone was just hoping he’d put it together, eventually. Lyles has been nothing more than a below average player with a low ceiling.
I mean Lyles was a top 40 draft pick and was the Astros top pitching prospect in 2010, pretty close to Bailey in terms of early prospect rankings of their careers. Homer was just picked earlier in his draft.
Garbage math statistics aside, he’s had some decent seasons and is currently playing a small role in Balitmore’s surprising competitiveness.
case, what “garbage math statistics” are you referring to?
Using WAR to determine the value of a player’s career.
Still, the dude only has one season with a league average or better ERA+ (100). His career ERA is 5.12 and his career ERA+ is 83. His 122 ERA- (22% worse than average) is the 8th highest since 1950 and is one of 24 players with 800+ IP and an ERA over 5.00 since ’50. It’s not like he’s a big innings eater. He’s never once reached 200 innings and only has one, 150+ IP season in his career (this year will probably be the second time in 12 seasons he’ll reach that). He’s pitched less than 100 innings five times and more than 100 innings six times (not counting the 2020 season). The guy is just consistently bad, yet year after year, he gets a contract from a team.
Technically Lyles has been worth 7.6 WAR over his career.
Jose Lima comes pretty close. Just over $24 million for a career 85 ERA+ pitcher. He did have two productive seasons back-to-back in ’98-’99 though.
I think Giles is a prime buyout but is resigned to another 2 year deal, with the 2nd year being a vesting option. Lots of talent, lots of injuries. Both sides can gamble and come away with a win-win situation.
Lyles is definitely getting his option picked up. He’s doing EXACTLY what he was brought in to do. Eat innings and help mentor the younger guys. The ERA isn’t going to garner him any CY votes, but both sides know what they signed up for.
Unless Paxton can produce three or more excellent starts in the big leagues this year, nobody will give him $26mm/2 on the free market. The Sox won’t pick up that option. They’d rather pay the $4m/1, or try to negotiate something in the middle.
Paxton can definitely do better than $4m/1 on the open market. He could get at least $8m/2. But if he’s feeling good, he might not want more than a one-year “show me” contract so he can do better in the 2023 off season.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he negotiates a new 1-2 year deal with the Sox prior to FA.
Not too much to get excited about on this market – except maybe Severino.
Tough call on Severino. Do you spend $15M on him, or spend $35M on the likes of Verlander or DeGrom?
I’m only commenting on this so I can add published author to my list of achievements today.
“Gallo is now hitting .267/.267/.533 (4-for-15) with a double, a few opposite field singles, two runs and eight strikeouts since he was traded for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter ahead of last week’s deadline.”
Of course. He grew his beard back and hit the game-winning three-run homer in last night’s game.
Am I joking? Well, yes and no.
Ever see a big, longhaired dog who had his fur shaved off and looked visibly embarrassed? I have.
Here’s my reasoning about Steinbrenner’s prep school grooming policy that seems to be about the only thing about his dad’s management of the team that he’s decided to hold onto.
Playing in New York is tough. A new player doesn’t need an additional negative element to deal with.
Some guys look just as good without a beard, some even better. Gallo, IMO, was not one of those guys. But even if he was, the fact of being forced to shave your beard adds a negative to a new player’s experience in the Bronx.
You’re not just having your face shorn of hair, you’re being deprived of agency: i.e., some other guy is telling you how you have to look. Personally, I think that’s BS. But it’s also emasculating. Who was the last person who ordered you to alter your appearance? Unless you entered the military, it was probably your mother.
I’m not saying that Joey will have a Samson experience and regain his power with the return of his beard. What I am saying is, it’s stupid to add another negative pressure to all the other demands of playing in New York.
If they want to outlaw ragged, foot-long hillbilly beards, fine. But imposing this pretentious military school nonsense on grown men is counterproductive. It might not affect most players, but if it affects even one or two, it’s not worth it.
I’m happy for Joey, and I hope he rakes in Dodger blue.
I’m curious what games you’ve been watching that led you to label Sawamura as solid
Regarding the White Sox, Im not so sure its an easy call to exercise Anderson’s option. I mean the guy is a legend.. in his own mind. This year, his numbers are a bit ‘fools gold’, Many games lately he is lucky to get a hit and, worse yet, has barely driven anyone in, especially in situations that matter (I have watched enough Sox games to see him fail miserably to drive in runners with 2 outs, and less than two outs). Combine that with the inability to stay healthy and he is not as great as his past performance shows.
Harrison.. bwhahahahahahaha.. Oh wait, you’re serious, Ill laugh harder.. Harrison is only another good example of how terrible Rick Hahn and Co is with signing veteran players (especially when JR tells Hahn to go to a Ferrari dealer with a budget that can only afford a Chevy.
If the Sox are smart they definitely jettison Harrison (for those numbers Im fairly certain a kid from the minors could hit those) , and really only exercise the option to Anderson after a good discussion with the next manager of this club (as Larussa has no business being this clubs manager for next season either)
A .300 plus avg. doesn’t give the Sox what they need if Anderson only plays 120 games a year. I’d rather have a .270 hitter that plays 150 + games and gives you at least one hit per game. 4 for 4 in one game doesn’t guarantee a win in four games if you don’t play the other 3. One hit in all four games could help the team win all four games. TLR has done a great job keeping the Sox in it without a SS, CF, 3B, C, and LF all season with all the hype given to the media hyped starters, The backups have done a great job, trade Anderson for two guys that play everyday like Abreu on you win more often percentage wise.