The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter. When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft. If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.
However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class. As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.
A quick refresher on the QO rules. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players. Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM. Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization. For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.
If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range. (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.) While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract. If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.
With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.
Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected. Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign. Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.
Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals. However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27. Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.
Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)
The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout). Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.
Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again. Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career. Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary. But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again. Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.
Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April. He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer. However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.
A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal. On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal. From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.
Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances. That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season. Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.
Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well. Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021. With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.
At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer. Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31. Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range. Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.
I love Dansby but with Vaughn Grissom looking like he is ready and Shewmake probably as well I can see the Braves moving on. 100% chance the Braves give him a QO.
Grissom is far from major league ready. He can’t hit the curve ball with any consistency. Also he has been playing 95 percent of the time at second, not short. Shewmake is struggling with his bat at AAA. The Braves would be massive fools to not resign Dansby. There is zero chance at them paying what it will take to sign Trea Turner either.
How many years did it take for Dansby to lay off breaking balls low and away?
Yeah but that’s not rhe point RunDMC.
Lol that’s not the point rundmc even though you brought up a excellent point that counters my stupid argument.
Grissom HR again last night on a curve ball – after this post. Seriously. That’s the point. 21 years old. He’s not ready lol.
@Bucsfan, Riley couldn’t lay off of the slider until last year. He’s likely the NL MVP this year, because of his bat. Grissom will settle in and get tons of instruction from Chipper. He’s an exciting player to watch as well.
Swanson will undoubtedly be hindered by the SS market and the damn won’t break until late January/early February. AA isn’t a patient man…
It really depends on when Dansby strikes his deal. Typically the best deals tend to come the earliest, and the longer players wait, the more holes that get filled, the less teams involved, and the less money there is to spend big…
Dansby has always been a very streaky hitter, hopefully he’s finally turned the corner, and if he finishes put the year doing just as well I’d really make an effort to resign him. Dansby offers the best value in terms of his offensive profile and his defensive profile all in one. Plus, him, Riley, and Acuña are the faces of the franchise now that Freeman’s gone, so there is that factor as well..
I still think goldy wins MVP with Freddie second and Riley 3rd
“He’s likely the NL MVP” – lol.
Arenado is better than Riley at the same position, how is Riley finishing ahead of him?
Have you checked the numbers of Arenado V Riley?
You’re probably right, but my overarchingpoint was that Riley struck out on sliders for two years and is now mashing.
Yes I have, have you?
@flaming-
Arenado- 28 doubles/25 HR’s/73 RBI’s/.931 OPS/.300 AVG
Riley- 34 doubles/30 HR’s/74 RBI’s/.938 OPS/.294 AVG
Show me where it’s evident that Arenado should be ahead of Riley?
What color is Arenado’s glove?
Their bats are very similar, but Arenado has like +15 outs above average and Riley has -10. The difference in hitting is miniscule, but there’s a Grand Canyon sized difference in defense.
All comes down to what other teams are willing to pay. With Trea Turner wanting to play east coast and the Freeman tie to Swanson the dodgers with their deep pockets could be a strong suitor for Swanson
The bigger question is what can the Dodgers afford? At some point they have to decide what to do with Buehler as his free agency is coming soon, add in mega deals for Mookie and Freeman can even the Dodgers absorb four $30+ million dollar per year salaries? If the answer is yes than go after Turner, if no than Swanson would be the likely choice. On top of that the Dodgers need to decide what do with Justin Turner, Bellinger and Muncy. Could be an interesting offseason in LA
The Dodgers have over 100 million dollars coming off the books next year, and that’s not including Bauer. Plus, they get somewhere in the area of 200 million a year just in media money. So, I don’t think that they are worried about the luxury tax threshold too much. Of course, they still don’t want to get silly with their money, after all, it is a business.
But with that said, I think a fair question would be: do they bring Bellinger back, trade him, or non-tender him? He will be in his final year of arbitration. He is a below average, high strike out hitter with tremendous power and a gold glove center fielder. What price do you put on that?
He earned of 17m this season. Is he worth it?
That’s the problem right there, the bat is mostly trash but the glove is gold and CF depth is horrific throught MLB that they certainly can’t just non-tender him and get nothing for him. I think they bring him back for that reason alone. Taylor strikes out literally every other AB and is the only other in-house option to play CF should they let Bellinger go and there is nothing in free agency other than Nimmo to go and get
I honestly think if they don’t re-sign Trea, they will give SS to Lux. He has been really solid at the plate and is not terrible defensively. I’m not as fond of Swanson as others. He’s had way more lean years at the plate than good ones. I am always leary of a hitter that all of a sudden has a huge breakout year in a “contract” year. I’d rather the Dodger use the money that was going to go to Trea and spread it around in the pitching staff. I also think Miguel Vargas gets a runway next Spring to make the club. JT will be back on the cheap and they bring Muncy back for sure.
I’d try to work something out with him, or I think you need to non-tender him at this point. It’s the dodgers so they can afford to over pay him for 1 year, but I don’t really think they should.
Taylor’s k% is 36.2 not 50.
He’s playing 2B because Damsby is at SS..lol He played alot more SS down in the MiLs; although, reports indicate that he’d likely eventually come off the position die to his size, so they might send him to the Winter Leagues to get some work in out in LF…
Also, they’re going to need to work on some extensions for Max Fried, Aj Minter, and possibly even Kyle Wright as soon as this off-season, so that very well could eat up alot of their available funds as well…
They’ll definitely issue Dansby the QO, if they haven’t been able to work out a contract by then, and if they don’t sign him they’ll probably take a long look at Correa and especially Turner.
It might be worth it to get Trea Turner solely so they don’t have to face him anymore. Turner absolutely KILLS the Braves whenever he faces them…lol
Absolutely no team will resign any of their free agents.
Maybe Albies could transition to SS next year with Grissom staying at 2nd then? Braves aren’t the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees with endless money to spend. Dansby’s agent is the same guy who pooped the bed on Freeman and I’m sure AA remembers that. Like I said before I love Dansby and he is a Atlanta guy but I think he will follow the money.
Grissom is far from ready yet hes curremtly hitting .385 and has 2 mammoth HRs.
Jesus when hes ready he will be better than Trout, Ruth and Homer Simpson in that softball episode of the Simpons with Griffey and Darryl Strawberry and all the other early 90s allstars.
What about Shewmake’s game makes him ready? His bat won’t play in the bigs and his injury conveniently allowed ATL FO out of a potentially awkward situation to fill-in for Albies at 2B and skip over him at AAA and promote the better Grissom from AA. That being said, ATL has even more reason to have a hard-line with BFF Casey Close on Dansby b/c of what Grissom is already showing. To be a fly on that wall.
I don’t think that will have as much to do with whether or not they resign Dansby or not. 100% they will issue the QO, it’s a no-brainer. But as they showed with Frederick, the Braves will set a price and will be willing to walk away if he crosses that line. Not because of some guy in AA – but due to salary demands. I can see Dansby being overpaid by someone to the tune of 30M per over 7 -8 years and that’s too rich for Liberty’s blood.
Grissom could be a great player, as a fan I obviously hope for that. But he is not now nor will he ever be a major league shortstop. He doesn’t have the range nor the throwing accuracy. He would be a liability, which would be a disservice to him as a player because he can likely excel elsewhere while being an above average hitter still. He is either a second baseman or a left fielder long term, at least on the Braves.
Ozzie Albies is a better option defensively at SS than Vaughn. And there’s a reason he’s always been at second instead.
The Braves are a championship level franchise that has (according to public info) seen a huge spike in funds. Outside of injury/disaster they would not start the season with a liability defensively at SS.
Who knows what they do at SS. Vaughn still has plenty of openings for 300-400+ ABs next year.
His range isn’t great, but he has nice hands and enough arm to get the job done. You could call him steady at short but never flashy. He would definitely be better at second but I don’t think short would be a disaster.
I think you’re nuts.
Much like some other commenters, I don’t think the decision will have anything to do with Grissom or Shewmake. It will be about Dansby, and what Dansby wants. If it falls in the Braves range, they’ll re-up him. If it doesn’t, they won’t.
The Freeman situation illustrates that. I mean Freeman is/was an MVP level player and the face of the franchise. If they wouldn’t stretch for him, then who will they for? My gut says it won’t be Swanson. I’m not saying it’s what I want or hope- just what I anticipate.
I think the Braves should draw a hard line in the sand with Swanson. 8 yrs 120 a flat 15 per year for him.
That’ll show him.
How does the Tatis suspension effect the Padres’ luxury tax? Wouldn’t they be lower from losing 60 games of Tatis salary?
Heard with the suspension tatis loses 2.9 mil. So if accurate that’s not much savings
He is only making 2.9 this year. That’s total. So the savings is like 800 grand or something. His extension kick in years don’t happen for a few years yet.
He is making 5 mil this season, 7 mil next season. It’s prorated based off the # of games suspended in each season. (It could vary depending on how many playoff games the padres play this year). Financially speaking the deeper the playoff run this season for Tatis, the less he owes because each game in 2022 would be slightly less than each additional remaining game in 2023
He is only making 2.9 this year. That’s total.
===========================
But the OP was questioning the impact on the luxury tax. That should be ~$7.2M
Players aren’t paid for playoffs so the amount of playoff games makes zero difference. It would only be regular season games.
“Players aren’t paid for playoffs”. Who the heck told you that?
@BigFred Players earn playoffs shares via gate receipts and such but these specific earnings don’t count towards the luxury tax which is what @ellisburks should’ve noted.
That is salary, not AAV.
Luxury tax is based on AAV, not yearly salary.
That’s $ saved, but aren’t luxury tax bills based on AAV and not the individual year’s salary? Maybe I’m confused but I thought AAV is what matters towards the luxury tax.
That’s correct.
I think the Padres played 114 games without Tatis. That leaves 48 games or 29.6% of the season. The competitive balance tax is calculated by average annual value and not by yearly salary to prevent accounting shenanigans by teams. Spotrac lists Tatis’ salary AAV as $24.2M and change. 29.6% of that is $7.17M. So that’s what the Padres should save towards the luxury tax this year.
Thank you Mule.
Would $7 million be enough to drop SD below the 2022 luxury tax?
Their payroll for luxury tax purposes as listed on Spotrac is $240M. This includes Tatis’ full AVV but even subtracting the 7 mil the Padres fall a bit short of the $230M threshold.
It would not drop them below the luxury tax since the acquired Soto, Hader & Bell. They will still be over the $230M threshold, as they are still paying all but ~$3M of Hosmer’s salary too.
No, his extension hasn’t kicked in yet, so the AAV of the extension is irrelevant.
I think it’s funny that my Padre friends and Dodger haters say “The Dodgers try and buy the World Series” and yet when we look at their rosters
Homegrown players on Dodger roster: Buehler, Bellinger, Urias, Smith, Lux, Gonsolin, Ferguson, Pepiot.
Homegrown players on Padre roster: Merejon
One could argue it’s the Padres trying to buy the World Series.
Yes, the Dodgers have money, no denying that, but they also are very shrewd in their drafting, developing and trades…Bauer notwithstanding lol
Who cares how you build a team!?
/s
His deal is backloaded so it won’t have much of an impact at all.
Backloaded, or frontloaded, is irrelevant in the computation for the lux tax.
I hope Swanson stays a Brave for his whole career.
Dansby Swanson and the Mariners would be a perfect match.
They have a good defensive SS. Better to get a superior run producing bat at a less important position with the $$
Tyler Anderson is 100% getting the QO. Possibly Heaney too if he stays healthy rest of the way
This article is about position players.
This article is about position players. Please read at least the title before commenting.
Heaney would be the easiest accept ever on a QO. No way LAD needs to keep him enough to QO him.
Rizzo’s the one guy of the core 4 from ‘16 that Hoyer should’ve re-signed. He would’ve really helped them during the rebuild. Of course I’m sure he loves playing with the Yankees now. But if he’d stayed back then… Water under the bridge..
Yeah he was the one guy I was sure would take whatever Hoyer offered, given his ties to the community. But good on him to have the guts to walk away.
I don’t know if it was guts as much as he thought he’d be able to make more money than he did.
No. he’s not the player he was, but I think there is real value in leadership and experience that he could’ve shared with this team while rebuilding.
He still wouldn’t have been worth what he was asking. I think he turned down $70M/5?
Finally someone who knows the difference between re-sign and resign!
I’m really high on Alcántara so I’m not upset the Cubs traded away Rizzo. I also think Rizzo is done, his numbers outside of New York are terrible.
Yet he was also the oldest of the 4, so a long-term extension would’ve been the most likely to wind up as an albatross…except maybe Baez.
I actually think it would be a good move to give Mitch the one year big raise on the qualifying offer. I am not privy to what Jerry is thinking as far as a long term deal with Mitch (or lack thereof) but he’s the big bopper in our lineup and maybe THE fan favorite on the team (other than the kid 2.0 obviously). He also plays excellent d as evidenced by his 9-3 double play yesterday. That was sick.
I think it wouldn’t be a bad move to give him 1 year at an advanced rate to set his long term market. His story is these freak injuries piling up; in park because of his aggressive play. He could garner a massive deal if he stays healthy through this year and next
I could see Boston offering a 3/$48M offer to Haniger in the offseason. He could play LF & DH for them. Basically a replacement for JDM.
I’d rather keep Pham if they are going to do that
Unfortunately, Pham broke Chris Sale’s other wrist for not being a “man” in their fantasy football draft.
He’s too injury-prone though.
Would 5/110 be enough to keep Swanson?
Dansby will only be 29 next season so I think he’ll be looking for a 6-7 year deal. $20M per year should be in the right neighborhood for him, so perhaps a 6/$120M deal with an option for Year 7 would get it done. Not sure he’ll sign a 5 year deal unless the AAV is too good to turn down.
I disagree. He will easily eclipse 20M AAV.
Not even close on the years or AAV.
5/125 is likely to be topped in the open market by years and total dollars.
I dont see how Eovoldi isn’t in the Borderline Cases. Considering the Red Sox lack of established pitching going into 2023, and cap space flexibility, he would be a very good possibility. And before you say injury . . . Haniger certainly is a risky choice, and he made the list.
Starvin: Eovaldi isn’t in the “Borderline Cases” portion of the article because he’s not a position player.
Thx, didn’t catch that.
This version of Profar would be a good fit on the Angels.
Except for the stipulation the Halos put in every contract that requires a player to severely underperform and/or get injured.
I would tag JD over Nimmo.
And Profar getting a QO is crazy. That dude has barely been above league-average (102 OPS+) since his “breakout” 2018 and even in his best seasons can’t get to .800 OPS. Hard pass.
Preller is the only person on this planet insane enough to do that. SD is the only team who sees Profar through rose colored glasses. I seriously doubt there would be much of a market for him – Tigers & Angels, and that’s about it.
Why would Detroit want Profar? They already have both Castros and Clemens as Utility.
I would offer a 2 year deal with Profar w/option for a 3rd year. More than that would not make sense.
Why is anyone worried about the luxury tax, the Padres are not.
Nolan Arenado is as good as gone. He’ll be a Dodger soon- that’s the only thing that keeps him going, and the only thing that allows him to sleep soundly at night. Getting out of St. Louis and away from those people is the best choice he’ll make for himself. He’ll spend the remainder of his time going to Laker games, eating at Mr Chow, and grabbing a turkey sandwich with Eddie Murphy
If this is sarcasm, you should indicate it better.
Arenado loves St. Louis and isn’t likely to exercise his opt-out.
People always say that. But how often does it (a player who is clearly worth more than his remaining contract forgoing his opt-out because he likes his current team) actually happen?
Arenado himself arguably already did it last year.
Nope!
Plus you can go to any Dairy Queen and get your Blizzard presented to you upside down, Ted Drewes be damned. Nolan is not particular about his ice cream or reasonable facsimile thereof.
St. Louis has plenty of Dairy Queens, as well.
It’s more likely that Arenado will simply not exercise the opt-out and continue playing on his current contract with no need for an extension or any other re-negotiations.
Based on what? Cards arent in position to be a major post season contender currently and Dodgers could be looking for a new 3B.
Cardinals lead the NL central currently and could definitely get hot enough to take a postseason series. I could see Arenado staying.
Not without a major bump in money.
Based on Arenado passing up the previous opt-out and all the hints he’s given since then.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are absolutely a major postseason contender with their current playoff odds and how much of a crap-shoot the MLB playoffs tend to be, and there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to be over the next few years.
Besides, the Cardinals already extended the original contract by a year when they made the trade for him. They shouldn’t need to do it again.
If he didn’t already formally waive the opt-out he still just might use it.
And yes they should need to do it again. Arenado earned the opt-out. He earned the right to do whatever he wants with it.
Yes, so he can choose to use it or not use it, but neither of those options have anything to do with needing another extension added to the contract.
If he opts out it’s either that or lose him.
If he wants to opt out, offering to add another year to the contract won’t convince him to reconsider. Otherwise, if he wants to stay, he won’t ask for an extension after he already got the first one from the Cardinals, either.
Yes it could and yes he will.
And as it’s been pointed out. He isn’t necessarily going to beat his remaining $ if he does opt out. BTV has him at a -$3.9m surplus value and the Cardinals are basically guaranteed to hang a QO on him if he opts out.
So he told you this?
If he does opt out which unlikely given the amount of money due, it will be for a similar extension maybe adding on a additional player option at the back end for 15 million or something
Is possible he and the Cards work something out in exchange for him foregoing the opt-out but if he and his agent think he can do better that whatever is left on the contract he’s not going to just not use it.
Depends if he is satisfied getting paid less than Rendon or Machado. He could shoot for an AAV larger than Trout. Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Mets, and Tigers could all use an upgrade at 3B and make a 5/$185MM or 6/$200MM happen. Of course the team that does it would probably regret it, but that’s the way it usually goes. And the Cards have Gorman and Walker to replace him plus new payroll flexibility.
Okay, I’ll bite. Rizzo. Looks like an old 33 to me. Can’t see a GM out there that would offer a deal that would be better than his current situation with the Yanks. He’s back in the Bronx next year.
If he’s smart, he’ll take the QO if it’s offered to him. I think the Yanks will.
Oddly enough. BTV has Nolan Arenado at a -$1.6m. Their valuation isn’t always accurate but it is fair to wonder if Nolan can beat his remaining contract with a QO attached. He’s 31 and isn’t exactly being paid peanuts.
Freddie got 6 years and $162 million, I could see something similar or a little more for Nolan because he plays a position with more value on defense.
I’ll take BTV value over any random guy who who thinks he knows a players value.
BTV is wrong too. You can’t form your opinion off any one metric and expect to be 100% correct. I’ll take that bet and set a reminder that iverbure thinks Arenado has negative value on his current contract and we’ll see if anyone tops his current deal if he opts out. Random internet stranger who thinks he knows better than pro sports agents
Max Muncy also has a team option that’s going to get picked up
Nope! They will bring up Busch to replace
That’s crazy talk. Muncy will be back. That’s not to say they won’t take a look at Busch, but they aren’t going to just go all in on a kid who hasn’t even had a major league at bat yet.
Trea to Philly, Xander to STL, Judge to Boston, Contreras and Rodon to NY, Arenado to LAD, Dansby re-signs with ATL
Phillies need pitching; not more offense.
signing a hitter doesn’t exclude a team from signing pitching. I just threw a guess out. I dont need youre response.
Yeah I can see both Xander and Arenado on the left side of the infield in St. Louis or replace Xander with Dansby or Trea.
The Cardinals don’t need a shortstop now that DeJong is back to his old form.
Judge to Boston? Maybe in 1998 or 2003. Not in 2022.
Virtually no chance that Philly signs Trea to replace Stott. Very little chance the NYY sign Contreras to replace Trevino. It usually makes no sense to sign an expensive to replace a controlled player playing well.
If it’s true that Trea Turner’s preference is to go back east it makes for interesting speculation breaking down potential suitors.
In the NL:
Braves; have signed mostly team friendly deals with their own players and are probably not likely to spend $250+ million for Turner with prospects coming. That would be a lot of money and would hamper their ability to sign pitching upgrades
Marlins; won’t spend that kind of money
Mets; most likely landing spot as Cohen seems like he’ll spend with reckless abandon. Trea would probably have to move to 2B however
Phillies; already a ton of big money contracts on the books and biggest need is pitching
Nationals; not going back
Cubs (if Chicago is east enough); say they are looking to spend so they too are very possible
Reds/Pirates; definitely not spending the money
AL
Orioles; would be a huge statement signing but also possible. The team has no real money on the books and a fluid Middle Infield. No reason to think they couldn’t sign him
Red Sox; would definitely be a shock but if Bogaerts leaves and Bloom needs to make a splash there it is
Yankees; if Judge leaves, maybe.
Rays; wouldn’t spend the money
Blue Jays; could do it with Trea at 2B or Bichette moving to 2B but a big money deal for Turner with the money they’ve already spent eventually will come at the cost of one of Guerrero/Bichette
Guardians; no
Tigers; only have Baez and Rodriguez on the books long term and Cabrera is considering walking away after this season but now may not be the time to spend big
Twins; have shown a willingness to spend and Correa may be coming off the books with an opt out of his own
Based solely of East(ish) teams only i would say he either goes Mets or Orioles
Why Nationals; not going back?
Team is in a rebuild and are not likely to even make an offer much less Trea wanting to go back for that
I know how good Turner is, but as a Mets fan, I love what McNeil brings to the team. Of course I know Turner would be an upgrade. Just enjoy McNeil.
Who besides you says Trea isn’t going back to the Nats? Obviously he’s not taking a discount but if they offer him the most $ he’s 100% going back.
Mets can certainly afford him but would have to outbid everyone else by a significant number because his known preference is to stay at shortstop.
Red Sox are out because of Story.
Judge has no bearing on the Yankees signing or not signing Turner.
He sort of does. Hal isn’t his father and is not likely to pay big money deals for Cole, Stanton, Judge and Turner
Unless I’m wrong, I count five of the Mets seven prospective free agents who could receive a QO. May and Lugo will not get QOs, but deGrom (after he opts out), Diaz, Nimmo, Bassitt and Walker all could.
Oh, the headline was position players, but five is still a lot.
**Carlos Rodon as he will opt out, so Giants will do the QO
This article is about position players
I dunno how anyone could be sure that someone is opting out of a 144 million. I’ll believe it when it happens and laugh uncontrollably if he gets less. If I was cards I’d be essstic if he opts out. See everyone here has it wrong. Opts outs are actually good for teams. If the player opts out it means you don’t have to pay the bum later on who undoubtedly won’t produce up to his current numbers
Guess I was right about Willson Contreras rejecting the QO
I’m predicting that Trea Turner also declines.
Difference is no one was denying that. Cubs fans on on the thread about Contreras not being traded were saying that Contreras will accept the QO.
JD has fulfilled his 5 year deal well. I think they may extend him a 1 year deal, if they do he may take it. I don’t see more than a 3 year deal for 45mill anyway there. Lower back tweeks, he wiffs at literally every slider now trying to pull it seemingly forgetting how to go to R/RCF anymore and is cursed with warning track power to CF/LCF. He needs to hit the strengthening hard in the winter to increase a declining bat speed & being on time. Bogey will get one for sure & opt out. May resign before the season starts as well. Somewhere around a Trevor Story or a bit less in years & $ being 30. He won’t stay at SS either. Story a much better defender